#The Limits to Growth

[justforbooks]

Οι μοντελοποιήσεις των ηλεκτρονικών υπολογιστών μάς είχαν προειδοποιήσει ήδη από τις αρχές της δεκαετίας του 1970: αν συνεχίζαμε να αντλούμε πόρους της γης, να ρυπαίνουμε σε μαζική κλίμακα και να αυξανόμαστε σε αριθμούς ο πολιτισμός θα κατέρρεε μέσα σε έναν αιώνα. Η μοντελοποίηση έδειξε πάνω-κάτω αυτά που συμβαίνουν σήμερα: κλιματική αλλαγή, ανυδρία, μικροπλαστικά να καταστρέφουν κάθε γωνιά του πλανήτη. Αλλά δεν δώσαμε σημασία στην τεχνολογία της δεκαετίας του 1970, ούτε στο βιβλίο «The Limits to Growth» (Τα όρια της ανάπτυξης), που εξέδωσε το 1972 η Λέσχη της Ρώμης. Το βιβλίο ωστόσο πούλησε εκατομμύρια αντίτυπα και μεταφράστηκε σε τουλάχιστον 30 γλώσσες, προκαλώντας διαμάχες. Πράγματι βασιζόταν σε πολύ πρώιμες μοντελοποιήσεις του MIT και προσπαθούσε να διατυπώσει με απλουστευμένο τρόπο τα περίπλοκα παγκόσμια συστήματα. Όλα τα μοντέλα των Η/Υ είναι λανθασμένα, αλλά μερικά είναι χρήσιμα: αυτό το μοντέλο δεν ήταν καν λανθασμένο και παρότι προειδοποιούσε για τις ζημιές της λεηλασίας των πόρων, η ανθρωπότητα συνέχισε να αδιαφορεί για τον υπερπληθυσμό και τη ρύπανση.

Το βιβλίο «The Limits to Growth» είχαν γράψει τέσσερις, νέοι τότε, επιστήμονες —η Donella H. Meadows, ο Dennis L. Meadows, ο Jørgen Randers και ο William W. Behrens IΙΙ— που προσπαθούσαν να απαντήσουν στο θεμελιώδες ερώτημα: Είναι δυνατόν να επεκταθεί η ανθρώπινη ανάπτυξη χωρίς αρνητικές συνέπειες; Ήταν μια σοβαρή προσπάθεια χρήσης των γνώσεων και των καλύτερων εργαλείων υπολογιστών που διαθέταμε τότε ώστε να προσομοιωθούν μια σειρά από σενάρια για το μέλλον. Μπορούσαμε άραγε να βρούμε μια ισορροπία μεταξύ της ανθρώπινης ευημερίας ή της ανθρώπινης ανάπτυξης και του γεγονότος ότι οι πόροι ήταν πεπερασμένοι; Κινδυνεύουμε από κατάρρευση; Τι μπορεί να μειώνει τη ρύπανση; Πώς μπορούμε να περιορίσουμε την κατανάλωση;

Οι κύριες μεταβλητές είναι πέντε: πληθυσμός, παραγωγή τροφίμων, βιομηχανική παραγωγή, φυσικοί πόροι και ρύπανση. Αυτό που προκαλεί κατάρρευση στα περισσότερα σενάρια είναι ένας συνδυασμός, όχι μόνο ένα πράγμα. Ανάμεσα στα ερωτήματα ήταν ότι αν η δικαιοσύνη στη διαχείριση των πόρων θα μπορούσε να διασώσει την ανθρωπότητα και τον πολιτισμό της, αν μια καλύτερη σχέση με τους άλλους ανθρώπους και με τη φύση, αν π.χ. η αποσύνδεση της ευημερίας από την αύξηση της κατανάλωσης θα έκανε το μέλλον μας πιο σίγουρο. Είναι αλήθεια ότι το μέσο αποτύπωμα των ανθρώπων στις ΗΠΑ είναι 20 φορές εντονότερο από το μέσο αποτύπωμα στην Αφρική —ωστόσο, αυτό δεν σημαίνει ότι η αύξηση του πληθυσμού στην Αφρική είναι επιθυμητή· ο μεγαλύτερος πληθυσμός σημαίνει αθροιστικό μεγαλύτερο οικολογικό αποτύπωμα. Εξάλλου, στην Αφρική λείπουν οι υποδομές διαχείρισής του· π.χ. η βιομηχανία της ανακύκλωσης.

Oι συγγραφείς του «The Limits to Growth» (LTG) χρησιμοποίησαν το μοντέλο World3 για να προσομοιώσουν τις συνέπειες των αλληλεπιδράσεων μεταξύ της Γης και των ανθρώπινων συστημάτων. Βασίστηκαν στις εργασίες του Jay Forrester από το MIT, και ιδιαίτερα στο βιβλίο του World Dynamics. Για την έρευνα και τη συγγραφή συνεργάστηκαν 17 ερευνητές, οι οποίοι συνέχισαν τη δουλειά αυτή με διαρκείς ενημερώσεις: το 1992 κυκλοφόρησε το Beyond the Limits ενώ το 20024 το «The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update». Το 2012, ο Νορβηγός συν-συγγραφέας Jørgen Randers δημοσίευσε το «2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years» και το 2022, μαζί με τον Dennis Meadows και άλλους 19 επιστήμονες έβγαλαν το «Limits and Beyond». Το συμπέρασμα είναι πάνω-κάτω το εξής: αν ο ρυθμός του πληθυσμού διατηρηθεί μαζί με την εξόρυξη γήινων πόρων, έχουμε περίπου 100 χρόνια ζωής στον πλανήτη. Βεβαίως, στο πέρασμα του χρόνου κάποιοι παράγοντες μπορούν να αλλάξουν και θα αλλάξουν· π.χ. η εισαγωγή ανανεώσιμων πηγών ενέργειας.

Υπάρχει ένα υπαρξιακό δίλημμα. Πολλοί πολιτικοί του 20ού αιώνα, όπως ο Ρόναλντ Ρέιγκαν και η Μάργκαρετ Θάτσερ, είχαν μια επικούρεια αντίληψη σε πλανητική κλίμακα: ας ζήσουμε στο μάξιμουμ και ας καταστραφούμε όλοι μαζί στα μέσα του 21ου αιώνα. Η αντίθετη αντίληψη είναι πιο συντηρητική υπό την έννοια ότι παίρνει υπόψη τον παράγοντα της βιωσιμότητας των αγέννητων. Όταν κυκλοφόρησε πάντως το βιβλίο «The Limits to Growth», απορρίφθηκε από πολλούς ως προφητεία για την Ημέρα της Κρίσεως. Στους οικονομολόγους δεν άρεσε γιατί η ανάπτυξη είναι εγγενής στον καπιταλισμό, τουλάχιστον στον καπιταλισμό του 20ού αιώνα που κάλπαζε χωρίς να ενδιαφέρεται αν καίει ή αν κλέβει τον χρόνο των ανθρώπων στο μέλλον. Ο χρόνος των επερχόμενων γενεών θα ξοδευτεί στην αποπληρωμή του χρέους που έχει συσσωρευτεί· μιλάμε για χρέος οικονομικό και οικολογικό. Σήμερα ξέρουμε ότι θα ξεμείνουμε από πόρους, αλλά πασχίζουμε να βρούμε άλλους ελπίζοντας ότι θα μας σώσει η τεχνολογία.

Μισό αιώνα από την έκδοση του βιβλίου αντιμετωπίζουμε την υπερθέρμανση και την απώλεια της βιοποικιλότητας. Αλλά έχουμε κάνει αρκετά βήματα στην αντιμετώπιση της παγκόσμιας φτώχειας όπως και στην εξεύρεση ανανεώσιμων πηγών ενέργειας. Εκτυλίσσεται μια αθόρυβη επανάσταση που δεν τη βλέπουμε ακόμα. Ίσως μάς κάνει λίγο πιο αισιόδοξους το ότι το «Τhe Limits of Growth» γράφτηκε όταν ακόμα πόλεις σαν το Ντένβερ και το Λος Άντζελες ήταν τυλιγμένες στην αιθαλομίχλη.

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[secretlifeofarabia]

1972

[syscyber]

The Limits to Growth

The classic system dynamics world growth simulation that shook —and keeps on shaking— the world.

The Limits to Growth is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the earth and human systems. The model was based on the work of Jay Forrester of MIT, as described in his book World Dynamics. Commissioned by the Club of Rome, the findings of the study were first presented at international gatherings in Moscow and Rio de Janeiro in the summer of 1971. The report's authors are Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III, representing a team of 17 researchers. The report concludes that, without substantial changes in resource consumption, "the most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity".

— Wikipedia

Read/Download Limits — DonellaMeadows.org

The Limits to Growth+50 — Club of Rome

The Limits to Growth after 50 — Resilience.org

World3 model standard run adapted from Limits printout Fig. 35, p. 124. By YaguraStation, CC 4.0, Wikimedia Commons

» Site map

[notquiteaghost]

re: that fucking staff post. obviously death to algorithms, but i also wanna interrogate the wider underlying assumptions of their logic there cuz. is 'success' having lots of followers & lots of popular posts??? why is that the end goal of using this website. i don't open tumblr to get attention from strangers, i open tumblr to read funny jokes and interesting commentary and to see cool art. encouraging clout-chasing will only increase user engagement if you successfully get people literally addicted to the associated dopamine hit. what if we didn't have to do that!!! what if a website could be a place you went to on purpose because you had fun there!!!!

[theambitiouswoman]

Cognitive Techniques To Change Your Thoughts ✨✨

Cognitive techniques are strategies used in cognitive therapy to help you identify and change negative thoughts and beliefs. These techniques should be practiced regularly so that they become habits.

Cognitive Restructuring: This involves identifying and challenging negative or irrational thoughts and replacing them with more positive or rational beliefs.

Thought Stopping: When you notice a negative thought entering your mind, you can mentally shout "Stop!" This interrupts the thought process and gives you a chance to replace the negative thought with a positive one.

Mindfulness and Meditation: These practices help you become more aware of your thoughts and feelings in the present moment. When you observe your thoughts without judgment, you gain insight into negative patterns and choose to let them go.

Journaling: Writing down your thoughts can help you process and analyze them. With time you can identify patterns and work on changing negative thought cycles.

Positive Affirmations: Repeating positive statements can help counteract negative self talk and reinforce positive beliefs about yourself.

Evidence Collection: When faced with a negative belief, ask yourself, "What evidence do I have that supports or refutes this thought?" This can help you see things in a more balanced way.

Decatastrophizing: If you tend to imagine the worst scenario, ask yourself how likely it is to happen and what other possible outcomes there might be. This can help you view situations more realistically.

Labeling: Instead of saying "I am a failure," label the thought as "a negative thought about my abilities."

Distraction: Engaging in an activity or hobby can divert your attention from negative thoughts and give your mind a break.

Scheduling Worry Time: Instead of ruminating on worries throughout the day, set aside a specific time to process them. This can prevent constant worry and allow you to focus on other tasks.

Challenging Cognitive Distortions: Recognize and challenge cognitive distortions like black-and-white thinking, overgeneralization, and personalization.

Visual Imagery: Visualize a place or situation where you feel calm and happy. This can help shift your focus from negative thoughts.

These are very simple descriptions and examples of cognitive techniques. I listed the ones we can put into practice on our own. There are more in depth methods and practices used by doctors on different fields of study and practice. I can list, as well as add upon the information listed here.

[hermajestyimher]

That may be YOUR reality, but it is not mine 🥰.

[kaeyachi]

Kaeyappreciation post!

Kaeya is wonderful in a sense that he:

Has a penmanship described as "Beautiful Handwriting". He for sure worked on that.

Willingly spends his time making sure his outfit looks perfect

Is well-loved by Mondstadt and the Dawn Winery staff

Is described to like a prince, both in looks and in actions

Is shown to be gentle and caring to children and elderly, most seen with Klee and the staff from Dawn Winery

Is a great listener and, therefore, also knows what gifts to buy based off of something someone said in passing

Is predominantly kind- unafraid to help out and defend someone in need. His first reaction is always kindness, and worry about covering up that kindness later on

But Kaeya also has his moments where he:

Says things out of pocket with enough alcohol in his system. Things that usually lead to shame and regret.

Would rather give others the credit for his hard work if he could help it

Intentionally makes himself look suspicious by withholding information and only throwing tidbits that are not of substance

Has sadist tendencies, which affects how he treats both his (cavalry) company and his enemies

Can and will use underhanded tactics to gain the upper hand

Rarely ever says what he truly wants to say

Has a fake smile. Usually lies or only deals with half truths.

He is such a complex character. I really do want people to appreciate him and his intricacies more. The fact that his entire personality and story is done so well and continues to actually grow and expand as the story progresses is something that genuinely makes me want to keep watch of him. I have never, in all my fandoms, stuck to a character as long as I did with Kaeya, and honestly? I know I'm not alone with this.

Look at how well they made our boy!

[heart-shaped-pupa]

call my Slash Jacked the way my bottom growth extends far beyond its physical limits

[wordsofwisdomandsoul]

[mrkmciver]

Built Different

[doomdoomofdoom]

any trans person should get HRT for free (no insurance required) and in exchange they should participate in the occasional study/survey.

research into sex hormones and their effects is so scarce and you have a whole ass population group who's willing to not only switch up their hormones but keep it up for very long periods of time. you could run some incredible long term studies with participants across all sorts of demographics.

while it's impossible to conduct any blind studies on this due to observable change in appearance, there's still so so so much data we're giving up on because we'd rather...

lemme check my notes. that cant be right.

...because we'd rather deny trans people health care and let them die. huh.

[travelersrest]

🪽🪷🪽

[steakout-05]

i might get some hate for this depending on where this post goes but i think lesboys are so valid and the discourse about them is so ridiculous. like you guys shouldn't have to deal with all that and it frustrates me that people throw hissy fits over an identity that literally does not affect them at all.

"but men cant be lesbians-" wrong. butch lesbians and trans men have a really closely connected history with each other that practically intersects and you should really do some research on that before you make blanket statements, not to mention that gender and sexuality is weird and wobbly and fluid and a very personal experience. it means a different thing to each person. being a man can be something completely different and saying stuff like this ignores people like demiboys, demigirls, genderfluid and genderflux people etc. these people will really preach "demolish the gender binary!! love is love!!" until someone's relationship with gender and sexuality is a little too freaky for them to handle and be challenged by lmaoo

"ohhh but what about the cishet men who say they're lesbians to prey on women-" YEAH WHAT ABOUT THEM????? THIS AIN'T ABOUT THEM BRO!!!!! this argument also REEKS of terfy "trans women are just predatory men!!!111!!1" rhetoric and it grosses me out. yeah some men are gross and do try to pull this but that does not negate someone's entire identity completely just because of a few bad actors, you know that right? actual black and white behaviour.

queer discourse is silly and i don't know why it's a thing. just let people exist. it isn't that hard. we have worse things to worry about than whether someone calls themselves a lesboy or not. i think we need to unplug our ears and yank our heads out of the sand and remember that the queer community is what it is because of our unique and amazing diversity. arguing over labels like school children isn't gonna help that. damn.

[theambitiouswoman]

Reframe Your Thinking: Writing Exercise 💭✨

If you catch yourself thinking negatively, try to think about something better right away. Ask yourself, "How can I make this thought more positive?"

Think about a few thoughts that aren't very good or helpful. Also, think about any beliefs you have that might be stopping you from growing. Write down those thoughts on one side of a piece of paper. On the other side, write down how you can make those thoughts more positive.

Here are some examples:

Limiting Thought: I'm not good enough for this job. Revised Thought: I have the skills and qualities to excel in this job, and I'm going to give it my best effort.

Limiting Thought: I'm always so disorganized and messy. Revised Thought: I can work on becoming more organized, and I'll start by cleaning up one area at a time.

Limiting Thought: I'll never be able to lose weight. Revised Thought: I can make healthy choices and gradually reach my weight loss goals with determination and patience.

Limiting Thought: Nobody likes me. Revised Thought: I have friends and family who care about me, and I can make new friends by being open and friendly.

Limiting Thought: I'll never get out of debt. Revised Thought: I can create a budget and a plan to gradually pay off my debt and improve my financial situation.

Limiting Thought: I'm a failure because I made a mistake. Revised Thought: Mistakes are opportunities to learn and grow; I'll use this experience to do better next time.

[everyday-is-uncle-day]

Jamie breaks Ted’s heart ❤️‍🩹 Ted has his first panic attack in the karaoke when the song “let it go” plays ….he’s failed his marriage and his son. And Jamie.

Ted only praises Jamie in the press despite Jamie’s negative comments.

Ted sees Jamie’s father yelling at him for doing exactly what Ted had been trying to teach him.

Their shoulders are so close during Ted’s offered Cheers 🍻

Ted talks about how sports ⚽️ teaches “never give up” - but - that should apply to people not just the athletics.

Ted has another panic attack after Jamie is struggling on the field. He hears Jamie’s father’s voice yelling at Jamie in connection with us own son’s voice about Jamie.

Jamie’s father’s reappearance again triggers Ted when Jamie breaks down with Roy.

with Dr. Sharon Ted tells her - he can’t let someone whose hurting get by him.

Not after what happened with his father.

Ted and his baby shark 🦈 gaze at Jamie

Whether Jamie is connected to Ted as a mirror image of himself (as an angry young man) or Ted’s father issues & Jamie’s father issues being a connection or his relationship trying to reach his own son Henry……

Helping Jamie is Ted’s mission statement from the beginning. That’s how the team will win. And he’s right.

Puzzle 🧩 pieces fit together.

Ted said as much to Trent in his interview. That’s why he loves coaching.

Helping people get what they need.

[glitter-stained]

"Jason not arguing/compromising in this situation is OOC because his stress response is fight" okay but stress response is context dependent, both environmental context (nature of the threat) and hormonal context (ie amount of cortisol currently in the body at that moment). And also the difference between fawn (aka the response used in negociation) and the other three stress responses (fight flight and freeze) is that fawn is a much higher response that requires higher cognitive function, social cognition etc. (which he has a looot of considering his life story), but also takes more time, so while Jason's immediate bodily reaction could be to gear up for an argument, he also completely has the abilities to evaluate that this is not the best strategy for his goals, especially since, while he is a very emotional character, he does also have impulse control and can be very (very very very) patient with his strategies (that man has some incredible impressive levels of inhibition sometimes, seriously utrh!jason wtf). And also people have the ability to learn, both in terms of complex reasoning, simple pathways and on a biological level, it's also very possible that after being stuck on fight mode for so long and getting hit after hit after hit (being caretaker for his mom and then himself as a little kid in a classist and violent environment, his mom's death, malnutrition, the general stress of being on the streets, M'a gunn, (skipping on Robin because of meta stuff to stick to the things everybody would agree are important stressors), his dad's death, exposed vey closely to sexual violence at 15 (at oldest, not even getting into the csa hc he already has sexual trauma), exposed to direct violent death at 15, being betrayed and sold out (does that count as trafficking?) by his biological mother (whomst he had attached himself to), being beaten + very brutally murdered, digging himself out of his fucking grave, getting hit by a fucking car (talk about overkill) being in the streets catatonic and still fighting, being in the league catatonic and still fighting, waking up to your life having been extraordinarily upheavaled, being told "you remain unavenged" and then pushed off a fucking cliff (even ignoring the brutality of that fucked up kiss because my talia is not a rapist), being sent to teachers and having (from his pov) to kill said teachers, to honestly all of utrh especially the final confrontation ending with a near death experience.... I mean, wouldn't you be tired? Even just cutting it off at utrh, wouldn't you be tired of fight mode? Jason's resilience is incredible, but resilience is neither a personality trait nor an infinity resource, you electrocute a dog often enough and it stops trying to jump out. And do I have to say anything, from a biological pov, psychological pov, from any pov really, about the events of Gotham War and The Man who Stopped Laughing? Because Bruce literally rewrote Jason's dna (which makes no fucking sense but whatever) to modify his stress response, he was quite literally forced on freeze mode, and Joker got him functional by rewriting those extreme amounts of stress as funny. At this point what makes the most sense is for Jason's stress response to be painful, uncontrollable bursts of laughter. I'm sorry if this sounds aggressive, I just really really like talking about psychology applied to character analysis and I'm not trying to be patronizing or anything, I just thought "hey I don't quite agree with that and that's an interesting conversation" and then the brain bees took over