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sgiandubh · 18 hours ago

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Americans' approval of Trump rose from 7% to 45% after his meeting with the Ukrainian president.

Let's see what the Europeans will do to Ukraine after the support tweets

NATO is nothing without America, This is the reality.

Dear Approval Anon,

I have no idea of your sources - you should be so kind and come back with substantial evidence, since I was not able to find anything remotely related to what you are so gleefully writing.

[Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/]

I know the troubles (the 2024 bitter Silver vs. Morris pollster feud comes to mind) Project 538 has been through lately. I am merely using this as a very recent poll aggregator, and it is nowhere near the illogical, tragically idiotic 'Americans' approval of Trump rose from 7% to 45% after his meeting with the Ukrainian president' you so confidently seem to tout.

On which planet would a recently elected POTUS start his mandate with 7% approval rate? You do the math, you answer this - to yourself, because you'd understand I am not really interested by your flimsy justifications.

But let's break it down a bit, shall we, and follow the latest 10 day-trend, for the sake of fine tuning - same source as above:

I see extreme polarization. I see self-cannibalization of polls, depending on their Red/Blue funding. I see a slightly unfocused domestic context, in which emotions are not settled yet - and how could they be, since lack of predictability seems to be in fashion?

I could go on and delve into it. I am not going to. I am just leaving these figures here, as a testimony of your tremendous liberty with facts. By the way, your champion is not doing so badly overall (pretty stable even, at the moment), so you did not need to lie like a 5 year-old. You're not helping him and make a fool of yourself, in the process.

However, allow this European to answer your insinuating assertions. Thank you for the concern, I think we'll be just fine. You are perhaps informed that, along with a long standing Common Foreign and Security Policy, the EU has a fully operative Common Security and Defense Policy. Both are solidly enshrined in our Treaties and both had very tangible results, already.

I doubt you closely followed the results of last Sunday's London summit. On that particular occasion, the EU has been joined by other non-EU, NATO members, such as the UK, Norway and Turkey, along NATO and the EU Commission's Chairpersons. What we will collectively do in order to help Ukraine is exactly what we collectively did during the COVID-19 health crisis: pooling our resources in order to achieve a common goal. Some will perhaps send troops. Others will probably help with their infrastructure. All will pitch in and fund the defensive support mechanisms. It is in the making. It is going forward, like it or not. I will not further speculate.

I also think you are exceedingly naive to think NATO would not survive without America. It might morph, it might limit its geographical scope or redraw its security goals and means of action, or it might very well be replaced by some other alliance of like-minded countries. It happened before. It will happen again. While it would be regrettable, it would not be unheard of, nor fatal. But ask yourself if isolation is the right path for your country, many of us know and deeply love, when faced with a complex counterpart (I hesitate using a stronger vocabulary, given the recent evolutions), such as Russia. How is this going to agree with USA's Manifest Destiny foreign policy doctrine and its long self-perceived exceptionalism is yet another complex issue I do not have the will to further discuss.

I will simply say this: your view is biased by your own, news' consumer focused perception of Time. You think everything will happen right now, as we speak, because your habitual media outlet told you so. I will probably disappoint you, but diplomatic time is running much, much slower than your perception shaped by endless breaking news moments would ever comprehend.

And remember, Anon: your reality might not be my, or hers, or his, or their reality. The world did not start with Columbus. It will not end now, because of a tantrum on a couch.

#anon #foreign policy #security and defense #NATO #Ukraine Peace Talks #London Summit #diplomacy

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darkwing-ramblings · 2 months ago

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The Dragon Prince Season Seven: Ezran

Hello @leavemealoneniw ! My explanation is long so I have made a separate post but shall reblog yours with a link too? Also much of this text was drawn from discussion with @fanf1cadd1ct , if you want to check that out for further elaboration. But first, your request:

“So… why we making it seem like Ezran went down a “Dark Path” when literally all he did was put a criminal (in Katolis eyes) in custody? I’m confused please tell me without the Rayllum code cause I couldn’t honestly care less.”

It’s undeniably unfair asking Ezran to just forgive Runaan but not acting to imprison Runaan is in no way equivalent to the personal nature of whether forgiveness has been granted and so pretty irrelevant to the debate. Ezran doesn’t have to forgive Runaan at all: him being angry and resentful was all within his rights and shouting and being upset and walking out of the room and refusing to look at Runaan would all absolutely have been deserved. But the other four assassins involved are notably dead so in terms of consequences four out of five of the team who infiltrated the castle to kill the king have already paid with their lives not to mention Runaan himself has paid with two years of his freedom to summarise why, on principle, it was imprisoning Runaan I find to be where Ezran crossed the line. If Exran had simply banished Runaan from Katolis it would be a different story- that’s absolutely reasonable and everyone involved would be happier I imagine if Ezran let Runaan disappear half a continent away where Ezran never has to see him again (which is an extremely reasonable urge and I utterly support).

Rayla does not phrase her demands Ezran release Runaan politely but they hold water in my eyes: Runaan is essentially a prisoner of war from a kingdom Ezran has no authority over who was just released from the custody of Katolis by Katolis’ high mage and crown prince/heir to the throne (aka Callum), who additionally gave permission for Rayla to bring Runaan to Katolis as a guest. Politically it complicates Ezran’s reaction significantly as a result and this is where Zubeia herself is most relevant: Runaan is essentially military personnel under her authority who acted under her orders assassinating King Harrow.

At the time Runaan killed Harrow Katolis was essentially at war with Xadia, the kingdoms were not allied in any way at all and open hostilities were ongoing such as concerning Harrow and Viren’s personal assassination of Avizandum, Xadia’s king, and believed lethal violence against Azymondias the unborn heir (that in reality it turns out Azymondias was kidnapped and stored in a basement for likely dark magic usage under conditions he couldn’t hatch in which would eventually kill him- it’s barely better). Harrow is the king of Katolis and Viren its high mage who killed another head of state (that he commits treason by lying to Harrow about Azymondias is completely irrelevant to the case of killing Avizandum where he committed no crimes so far as Katolis’ law was concerned)- retaliatory military violence is more of the same and not special. Runaan’s arrest and imprisonment by Katolis post-killing Harrow is absolutely legitimate: he’s a foreign soldier (an assassin is not a separate category that means anything tangible given what we’ve seen of Katolis’ actions against Xadia) who just killed their king.

And yes, it is by Katolis. Callum and Ezran have voluntarily left the castle and Amaya is away- Soren is the legitimate head of the crownsguard and Viren is the legitimate high mage of Katolis and they are two of the major authorities for Katolis left in the castle at that point post Harrow's death. Additionally, Viren is later legitimately given leadership in a peaceful transfer of power (no matter the circumstances of political stuff surrounding it) when Ezran steps down so I don't feel he's exactly divisible from the authority of Katolis. It is understandable Ezran probably doesn't feel that way, yes, but Viren very much is not practically separable from the kingdom at that point in time or following. Soren as head crownsguard with delegated authority also is particularly legitimate on behalf of the crown of Katolis. Runaan remains imprisoned by Viren and to his knowledge during his time as regent and king. The imprisonment of Runaan itself is fine as a hostile agent of a kingdom they’re essentially actively warring with- the torture isn’t and Claudia implying Runaan may be used as dark magic spell parts isn’t (Xadia’s cultural taboo on dark magic is absolutely enshrined in their laws and so it may be legal in Katolis but I still object to treating anyone that way regardless).

Zubeia being brought up to point out the hypocrisy of not holding it so tangibly against her yet holding Runaan accountable is why it matters as a discussion point.

But that’s all well and good for somewhat covering the two year time skip period where Runaan can arguably be seen as facing consequences for killing Harrow already by Katolis- which is what Ezran we see feels he should do. The other four assailants also died in the break in- during combat or slain afterwards perhap-. Harrow’s death has not gone unpunished or unaddressed under the authority of Katolis. Hence my issue with Ezran ordering Soren to arrest Runaan who is not a citizen of his kingdom and is a prisoner of war just released from Katolis’ own imprisonment by a legitimate authority of Katolis (its new high mage undoing the actions of its old one rather poetically, neatly stopping the cycle of violence on a microcosm pleasingly). Because Katolis and Xadia AREN’T AT WAR after the time skip they’re diplomatic allies- Ezran, if he wants to legitimately prosecute Runaan needs to go through Zubeia for permission who is his ally or it’s potentially an act that could justify renewed war and reopen hostilities. In other words it’s utterly irresponsible, dangerous and unjustifiable by any legal principle if Ezran intends to honour his agreements of peace.

Ezran, as king of Katolis, being on first name terms with Zubeia, the queen of Xadia, does not make the political and diplomatic implications go away. Peaceful negotiations with her for reparations arguably owed when the kingdoms are at peace once again is what he needs to open up process wise and a bag of worms it’s extremely ill-advised to open: Zubeia would be within her rights to open up equivalent cases against Katolis’ citizens and military personnel felt to have committed particular crimes she’s decided she cares to prosecute. Amaya was on the expedition to kill the magma titan and killed Xadian elves on the border and helped establish new military outposts by pushing further into new ground aka she’s not an innocent to this type of situation. It isn’t inconceivable Zubeia has solid grounds to push for Amaya’s death in such a situation (slaying the magma titan was the expedition where Avizandum defended their own border from invasion by foreign powers on behalf of one of their civilians or else sentient beings under their protection who was killed and used in a dark magic spell as parts desecrating the corpse that King Harrow/Katolis drew on to “justify” Zubeia’s mate’s death). The goodwill between Xadia and Katolis is new and fragile- Ezran’s confidence Zubeia was injured and perhaps unlikely to object to her subject’s ill treatment for actions taken during a war undertaken with her authority is no justification for Ezran risking everything he’s worked for and the safety of the people in his kingdom who are unusually vulnerable given the loss of their fortified capital has just happened because of a personal desire for vengeance. Imprisoning Runaan is a significant political failure and provocation on a practical level.

(Yes, I do have complaints about Azymondias here too- he may be young but he's prince and Runaan is his subject and frankly Zym getting involved would have made sense on a practical political level at least, particularly given Rayla is one of his citizens he knows and it's her father and Runaan did it on Zym's mother's orders, he could at least have said something passed on through Ezra. Ezran is a young king rising to the challenge Zym also ought to try and act fittingly as a prince. But he’s practically a toddler so it’s still significantly younger than Ezran’s age equivalent so there’s that.)

Additionally, it’s hypocritical of Ezran to not hold both Zubeia and Runaan equally accountable for Harrow’s death- he can’t pursue only one and have any moral high ground because as understandable as Runaan seemingly registering as the sole perpetrator is it’s utterly baseless in how royal power works. Ezran is a child but he’s also a king- having emotions is no crime but it’s extremely important what he does with them and if age was an excuse and the reason he couldn’t be expected to work past them in any scenario then the argument becomes not about Ezran’s choices and slight moral decline in the throes of anger at all but about how actually Opeli or whoever should be regent as Ezran shouldn’t hold the throne in the first place. I do wish the conflict had bubbled up concerning Zubeia and her delegated authority more though previously in the show yes as her and Ezran having such a harmonious relationship has always confused me because she factually ordered Harrow’s successful assassination- and ordered Ezran’s own too even if it was unsuccessful without fact checking what his age was at all (which we know because Rayla was on the mission and fully briefed and didn’t know that Callum wasn’t Ezran at first). It’s a failure of due diligence but even a toddler is comparatively less bad than an unhatched egg so given Ezran is named and it’s reasonably inferable he’s an unborn child it’s not hard to see why it occurred: Zubeia just didn’t care that much she wanted someone to pay for her pain and didn’t much care about the specifics of it. Zubeia actually saying something about the whole mess she created feels like the missing piece of character moments I’d personally have enjoyed being touched on a little further.

Now I personally think imprisoning Runaan (note that Soren may have done it but as it was under Ezran’s command Ezran is just as accountable) made Ezran very compelling as a character with all of his complexity and it was an extremely entertaining watch as no character is flawless and they can all make mistakes, but it was absolutely not a path taken free of darkness in terms of his decisions becoming morally murkier. It reminded me of Harrow as a character foil to Ezran wherein they both fell prey to the same impulse that Harrow denounces before his death: it's all well and good denouncing the cycle of an eye for an eye and a life for a life and a wrong for a wrong until it's your loved one who suffers it if you can’t put your money where your mouth is! Blood feuds (rarely considered morally a-okay) are a staying feature in history for a reason! Ezran paralleling Harrow oh so well was neat (whilst Zym has it seems actually for the time being moved away from Avizandum's shadow of violence more fully following Zubeia's over reformation, her wholeheartedly rejection of it is neat as it parallel's Amaya meanwhile and gives proof adults as well as children can change no matter how far down it all they may be!). I particularly loved the ensuing Rayla and Soren dynamic reprise too where they're both opposed because of principles and personal loyalties! How it worked out perfectly showed the show’s themes in the microcosm I thought!

Another character who was crucially missing at the key window of that situation imploding was Amaya. I feel like Amaya’s presence would have helped mediate a lot more than Callum’s and that her presence was sorely missed as an adult, a family member and a soldier more accustomed to situations of complexity like it to talk to Ezran and help him process it all better. Perhaps even to suggest banishment. Surely she was needed in Katolis more than in Lux Aurea even if she's newly married? Sigh, oh well, she did hug Ezran before he left at least? I still sorely missed her experience and wisdom from being an adult tied to the crown family as long as Ezran's entire lifetime and then marrying into a separate one (kudos to Janai for lucking into a spouse with both a military and political background that's dead useful in an advisor who has actual experience supporting a king and queen!). The disparity highlighted of Callum taking Harrow’s death better as he’s both older and unlike Ezran has grieved a parent he can remember (as well as one he mostly can’t/can’t at all about his birth father which their mother is the equivalent for to Ezran)

before Harrow was also pronounced in a very cool way. Callum feels like he comprehends Zubeia played a significant role in Harrow’s death and has a relationship in spite of that- Ezran it feels didn’t and may never get closure on fully now Zubeia isn’t around to face the fallout of her actions directed towards her anymore (but he had two years so honestly he did have time to seek it out if he really wanted to and he has Zym who parallels him directly and lives with the knowledge Ezran’s father killed his own father so they can support each other at least?).

The following is less about why I don’t think it’s ambiguous that Ezran failed to adhere to his own standards and principles- hence undeniably showed decline from his more established role as the ideal moral example to everyone in the show- but is relevant to the discussion in terms of aggravating and mitigating circumstances.

To me it feels notable that in the scene Ezran spots Runaan and during their stay in Katolis briefly Runaan was always unarmed- Rayla had the sense to not return his bow to him etc in that period because that would have been horribly undiplomatic. Runaan being an invited guest and unarmed when he’s arrested are ways that the disproportionate scale and immediacy of the escalation cannot be pinned on him or Rayla regarding them. Runaan on his part is very helpfully not making things worse by resisting arrest or denying his actions or adding fuel to the fire saying anything horrible and went quietly when arrested by Soren (again... the deja vu cannot have been fun, it was very handy there were no explosive PTSD reactions to chains and guards from Katolis soldier's uniforms later either, given the timeline for him is barely a week since being conscious outside of Katolis' dungeons that could have been much worse, he also didn't beg for death this time). I only imagine Rayla appearing on good terms with Callum and Ezran regardless, helped enormously in soothing worries Runaan might face "more practical uses" as Claudia put it again in any type of dark magic way as was said at his previous capture. None of it needed to be written that way but Runaan shows no signs of present hostilities and beyond breathing cannot be said to have aggravated the situation- making Ezran’s choice that much more clearly unjustified in his handling it the way he did and his own.

Callum informing Ezran that Runaan would be arriving with Rayla beforehand would have helped, possibly, but that’s something it’s reasonable for Rayla and Runaan to assume he would do if it was necessary and not on them given they have literally just arrived in that scene. Callum hasn’t seemingly been there much longer but has met up with Soren and Ezran for a bit beforehand so had the time practically if unlikely emotional capacity. Again, I reiterate, Ezran screaming for Runaan to get out of his sight I would stand by- having Runaan dragged away by an armed guard not so much.

Callum starting with "I understand how you feel and why Ezran, it was wrong that our father was killed and I grieve him as much as you and it is a terrible tragedy that Katolis was destroyed and I am here with you and just as grieved. But it is still not Runaan's fault and I don't think you should be holding him prisoner" would have helped, but to some degree Callum DID cover most of those points so... I can see how they were all trying and it still fell apart. Callum's approach in private later if repeated a couple of times would have eventually gotten somewhere, I imagine, but not in a time frame that was fast and it’s not actually fair for Runaan to await Ezran fully processing Katolis’ destruction before he’s given his freedom back.

Rayla breaking Runaan out in the middle of the day as a MOONSHADOW ELF was absolutely hilarious, I have to say, waiting less than a day would have helped greatly but she was really just that impatient. It’s utterly terrible decision making. Without it we wouldn’t have gotten confirmation that Ezran is willing to violently recapture Runaan at potential cost to his soldier’s lives though which was another yikes when the imprisonment was for reasons I put above not one I felt was warranted, sensible or particularly justified in a legitimate capacity. After all, if “any actions taken against someone once they’ve killed a king are inherently justified and there is no disproportionate force etc and diplomacy doesn’t matter judging if it’s fine” then Harrow’s death was absolutely justified so Runaan facing consequences for it is… both shaky and exploration of why the cycle of violence continues: which Ezran’s actions endorse in spite of his words about the cycle in how own view being bad and hurtful and something to stop because continuing it isn’t right. For her part, Rayla just had to see two of her parents pass on and pick only one to save and chose Runaan, she's not seen Ethari in two years and when she did he was hurting and she was hurting and they were both grieving so she wasn't ever going to compromise her family given the poked at wounds of her own grief. If grief is a good enough defence on its own she and Ezran’s ought to cancel each other out. To her minute credit she did try to ask Ezran release Runaan before resorting to breaking Runaan out: her father the tortured ex-prisoner-of-war imprisoned by her kingdom’s allies for actions taken when their respective kingdoms were not allies and were not those of a renegade but their monarch’s will making disobeying if ordered arguably treasonous and ergo illegal.

Ezran sits in the ruins of Katolis on his violently killed father’s burnt throne, having not fully grappled with the nature of Harrow’s death as he's young and it's hard and unlike Callum he has no memory of working through grief of the type where a parent is remembered was never going to resolve smoothly. Amaya isn’t there. Callum tries but him having a romantic relationship with Rayla doesn’t help with mediation and Ezran is just not at a point that sort of plea can get through to him yet. He’s snapping at Zym because of stress later on in the season for instance and talking about weapons against the dragons in very cold war-esque terms oblivious to Zym being a dragon and right there and looking extremely uncomfortable about it. Ezran seeing Runaan was never going to end well but the specifics of how it goes are what raised flags to me. Ezran and Rayla are friends so there’s elements of mutually feeling personally betrayed by each other over the entire mess because they wanted more support that doesn’t help.

It’s brilliantly entertaining and a delightful powderkeg of politics and diplomacy and vengeance and grudges and grief. I have no complaints as it let the characters all be complex and none were one dimensional and loved them all the more for it!

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