#housing forecast

[dkaufmandevelopment]

Texas Housing Shortage Deepens Despite Record Construction

Despite leading the nation in homebuilding, Texas faces a worsening housing shortage that is inflating housing costs statewide. Let’s dive into the data and explore what this means for real estate developers and investors.

The Numbers: An Escalating Crisis

The Texas housing shortage grew to 320,000 homes in 2022, up from 306,000 in 2021, despite Texas building more homes than any other U.S. state. This gap underscores the fact that even with a surge in new homes, primarily in suburban areas, population growth continues to outstrip supply. The nonprofit housing policy group Up For Growth reports these figures, highlighting the significant demand-supply imbalance.

Drivers of the Shortage

Rapid population growth, particularly in cities like Dallas, Houston, and Austin, has driven up housing prices and rents. Many new Texans are moving from states with higher costs of living, adding to the strain on housing availability and affordability. Historically, Texas has managed housing demand by building detached, single-family homes in the suburbs, keeping housing costs relatively affordable. However, this approach is no longer sufficient to meet the current demand.

Need for Denser Housing Types

Experts, including David Garcia of Up For Growth, suggest that outward expansion can no longer address Texas’ housing needs on its own. In urban centers, limited land availability and strict zoning rules hinder the development of denser, lower-cost housing types like townhomes, duplexes, and smaller apartment complexes. Loosening these restrictions could ease the strain by making it easier to build multi-family homes and other affordable options.

Regional Differences

The housing shortages vary by region across Texas, with some cities making progress in expanding their housing stock:

- Austin-Round Rock: Reduced its housing shortfall by a third, leading to a 16-month decline in rent, though the area remains short by nearly 24,000 homes.

- Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth: Saw their housing shortages grow despite greenlighting more construction projects than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

- El Paso: Has seen a minor easing of its housing shortage, a unique trend within the state.

Zoning Reforms: A Path Forward

Many housing advocates argue that restrictive zoning laws contribute significantly to the Texas housing crisis. While permissive toward single-family homes, Texas cities often restrict land for denser housing types, limiting the construction of affordable housing options. By adjusting these restrictions, cities could increase the housing supply and provide more affordable options for residents. However, zoning reforms face resistance from neighborhood groups and existing homeowners who often oppose denser housing developments.

Upcoming Policy Efforts

The Texas Legislature is expected to address the housing crisis when it reconvenes in Austin next year. A major topic will likely be the extent of state intervention versus local control in setting zoning laws. Some advocates propose state-level mandates to ensure all cities contribute to solving the housing shortage, while others emphasize the need for flexibility at the local level to tailor solutions to community needs.

“While every community should be accountable, the state can set expectations to ensure all cities are helping meet the housing demand,” Garcia said. Balancing state and city powers will be central to any meaningful progress in addressing Texas’ housing issues.

For real estate developers and investors, understanding the dynamics of Texas' housing market is crucial. The state's rapid population growth and significant housing shortages present both challenges and opportunities. Addressing zoning laws and supporting affordable housing initiatives will be key to managing this demand and capitalizing on the burgeoning market.

Join the Conversation: What are your thoughts on the Texas housing shortage and potential solutions? How do you plan to navigate these trends in your investments? Share your insights and engage with our community!

#RealEstateTrends #HousingShortage #InvestmentOpportunities #TexasRealEstate

What are your views on the Texas housing market and its challenges? Let’s discuss below! 💬🏡

[lunarliyah]

- Virgo midheavens/virgo moon strongly dislikes when things are out of order and look as such as well.

- 7th house sun/7th house Venus strongly dislikes when things are not aesthetically appealing. Or gravitates more towards things that are.

- Both value order and knows the importance of outer appearance and first impression.

Honorable mention. 10th house placements.

-7th house suns come to a point of learning how to not subconsciously mold their personality to be more digestible for others. They go through lessons of the universe showing them what happens when you do not show up as yourself.

-Capricorn placements and their need for the attention is something people don’t talk about.

-where ever Jupiter is, it’s enhanced. where ever Jupiter goes, it grows.

-Aquarius moon/venus men love to teach their women things. They are huge sapiosexuals. If he’s not trying to inform/teach you something, he probably doesn’t like you :)

-Sagittarius sun/moon men like their women already knowing things.

-In the honor of Gemini season, one way to piss one off is to speak to them/treat them as if they are imbecilic. Good luck with dealing with their reaction.

-One way to piss of an aries/aries placements is to make them feel like they are inadequate. Again, have fun with playing with fire.

-Two aries sun people in a relationship could be a power couple. Depending on the moon, this combo is a “I met my match” and it’s never unpredictable. They just know each other very well.

Please do not steal my content, reposting/reblogging is fine. Give credit.

thanks so much.

[iravaid]

Quick comic based on the Forecaster’s dialogue when he thinks about ‘You’, more below the cut + some details i wanted to ramble about

page 1.

- wanted to give the Forecaster’s psyker abilities some kind of representation, and ultimately landed on a snake skeleton for the vibes and symbolisms

page 2.

- trying to use this page to represent the massive, overall concept and ideas at stake in the weeks surrounding the second battle for Hoover Dam, contrasted with the small, moving parts that keep it going and ultimately shift the overall outcome

page 3.

- trying to tell something of a story posture and expression-wise with House, Kimball, and Caesar: Kimball and Caeser leaning in, invested in the game, with House leaning back and merely watching, with his cards facedown on the table instead of in his hand, as they’ve been long since memorised

- the chips form important areas in the game overtop a faint road map of the mojave on tha table. These places being Camp McCarran, the Strip, Hoover Dam, and the Fort, with the platinum chip sitting alone in the Goodsprings area

- the four handguns are the ones you get in the DLCs - Police Pistol from DM, Sonic Emitter from OWB, Light Shining in Darkness from HH, and Laser Detonator from LW

- the symbols at the bottom in the shadows represent some of the factions the Courier can ally with/help in the game (from left to right: Chairmen, Boomers, White Glove Society, Remnants, Omertas, Followers of the Apocalyse, and the Great Khans)

page 4.

- the symbols on the cards further goes into the metaphor, with the ‘hand’ the Courier is holding containing the factions who can help them in the final battle - the Mk 2. Securitrons, the Remnants, the Boomers, the Khans, the Strip

- My courier, Zihun, has a glass eye modelled after a Nightstalker, hence the reptillian eye in the last panel

page 5.

- storm clouds. augh. agonies.

[xenonsdoodles]

byleth and death knight, staring each other down as the imperial army approaches garreg mach: to the death. to the death? to the death.

claude swooping in between them with a crit: hey! no!

[alienoryva]

Lady Daenys Targaryen (The Dreamer)🪻

[redistrictgirl]

As of August 11th, 2024, the race to control the US House of Representatives is a dead heat.

This is the most surprising output from my model, I think. After all the teeth-gnashing of 2022, an environment three points to the left still produces a nail-biter in the US House of Representatives! This time, though, Democrats are favored slightly, with an edge in 219 of 435 seats. I'm not going to go over every single interesting seat, because there's over 100 that could wind up competitive this year, so let's just go over the highlights.

The Southwest is going to be very competitive this year, extending all the way to California! Democrats will need to flip seats here to get to the magic 218 number, especially in California, where they dramatically underperformed in 2022. Conversely, Republicans will be eyeing Nevada - despite its gerrymander, three seats here are theoretically within reach, so a strong performance in the state at the top of the ticket could be a boon.

In the Midwest, Democrats will be playing defense, with vulnerable seats in Michigan, Ohio, and Minnesota already. A red wave is the biggest hope for the GOP, as that would put seats in Illinois, Kansas, and Indiana in play. On the other hand, if the environment gets bluer, Democrats could flip seats in Iowa and Michigan as well as Nebraska.

The one region to watch in the House might actually be the Northeast! Two districts in Allentown and Scranton are probably the easiest pickup opportunities for the GOP this cycle given Democratic coattails in 2022 that are unlikely to repeat, and Dems will be trying to hold a seat in Suburban Pittsburgh and flip a seat in Central New Jersey - both are razor-close, and either could definitely swing the chamber. In New York, Democrats absolutely must gain seats, but a fresh gerrymander will help them achieve that.

Speaking of gerrymanders, North Carolina's redrawn map will decimate the Democratic Party there, halving their safe representation. The Hampton Roads region and Northeast NC are critical to overcome that setback, as they have a close GOP-held seat and the expected median seat, respectively. Both incumbents here are strong, and they'll both need to be for their respective parties.

So while on paper, Democrats are the favorites, they'll be playing a lot of defense outside of New York and California. Control of the chamber could come down to many different factors, and if 2022 is anything to go by, even the most marginal seats can make a huge difference. 27 states are expected to have a competitive seat, so people across the country will play a role in deciding what the next government looks like.

[risuola]

very important question to all of you that follow serendipity series. how do you think their first 🌶️spicy time🌶️ together will happen?

[starshapedjello]

Pluto in the 12th House

Eternal loneliness?

Some ppl believe this placement has to do with distancing yourself from others.

I have a different theory.

Besides…eternal loneliness sounds pretty lonely. How can loneliness be good for the soul?

Yes, Pluto in the 12th *does* need soul searching and in order to soul search, one must be alone and therefore lonely…

But not forever!

Pluto is all about change! Nothing could ever be forever with Pluto (planet of transformation).

The 12th house is what we hide from ourselves, it is the subconscious. Things you can’t see with your eyes, but that still exist with in reality at every given moment.

What is something we do subconsciously? Body language.

What is the purpose of body language? To convey how you feel, but also it can be used to reinforce someone’s personal boundaries. 🙊

🤔

Transformation caused by the exhausting journey of mastering one’s personal boundaries. 😩

It’s rough out here.

We got dis.💪

The fun part about this placement is that once you begin to stand up more for yourself, you develop this edge.

It’s very scorpionic, as in it is a heavy aspect that can transform you to your core.

Good night and don’t take life too seriously. Remember to breath and have fun.❤️

[fallout-lou-begas]

i did not like scream 5 or scream 6 very much but melissa barrera is so good at getting covered in sweat and blood while wearing tight jeans and a tanktop so they're not all bad

[dkaufmandevelopment]

Unlocking New York City’s Potential: The Rise of Office-to-Residential Conversions

Post-pandemic, the great hope for office-to-residential conversions in New York City was that they would address two critical challenges facing commercial real estate: the surplus of office space due to hybrid/work-from-home norms and the affordable housing crisis across the five boroughs.

A Shift in Perspective

Initially, this hope seemed to fall short due to several factors, including the physical limitations of older office buildings—windows and floor plates not conducive to residential use—and zoning complexities. However, over the past year, a positive shift has occurred. Government initiatives, such as New York City’s Office Conversion Accelerator Program (launched last year), the new 467-meter state tax exemption for conversions (with benefits tied to timing and geography), and Mayor Eric Adams’s proposed City of Yes zoning overhaul, are instilling optimism among developers. They now see a path to profitable and productive conversions that contribute to housing solutions.

A Promising Surge

To gauge the growth of office-to-residential conversions, consider this: between 2010 and 2020, New York City witnessed 34 such transformations, according to the Department of City Planning. However, in just one year since the Accelerator program’s announcement, 69 building owners have expressed interest in potential conversions. This surge could mark a pivotal moment in addressing the city’s dual challenges.

Streamlining the Process

The Office Conversion Accelerator Program plays a crucial role. It provides owners undertaking conversions of at least 50 residential units with a central contact within city government. This streamlined approach eliminates the need for separate communication with various departments—City Planning, Buildings, Housing Preservation & Development, Standards and Appeals, and the Landmarks Preservation Commission—to ensure compliance with codes and zoning regulations.

Momentum Building

Recent industry news reflects this momentum. GFP Real Estate and TPG Real Estate recently submitted a Buildings Department application to convert 222 Broadway—a 31-story, 750,000-square-foot office building—into 798 apartments. The estimated cost of this transformation stands at $43.6 million. The project, purchased from DWS in June for $150 million, lists CetraRuddy as the architect.

In summary, New York City’s office-to-residential conversions are gaining traction, offering a glimmer of hope for both the real estate market and affordable housing. As the logjam loosens, developers and city officials collaborate to create a more vibrant and inclusive urban landscape.

[basicallyanotherwitchesthing]

Prediction, magazine, Link House, November 1984

[akkivee]

WE LA CHILLIN YALL

[salmonellaandcheese]

if it’s still morning/noon for you use yesterdays data, you can find uv indexes on most weather apps (i think)

[aturnoftheearth]

genuinely i am a severe weather repellent. i go to my sister’s house for the weekend. usually her area gets worse storms than ours does. storms go through the area. it’s kinda bad like the power goes out and it rains a ton and the lightning is nonstop but like. it’s fine. i get a call from my brother later in the day saying three tornadoes swept through ours and a nearby county with a fourth unconfirmed on. what the fuck ????

[monogramsalarm]

hate having to work outside during spring in portland. weather forecasts mean nothing and no one can predict shit