redistrictgirl

[redistrictgirl]

A lot of y’all seem very concerned about this, and while I’m skeptical these “mismatches” could have occurred in a systemic or deliberate way, I’m willing to investigate for the sake of peace of mind, if nothing else. If you:

Served as a poll worker or otherwise participated in the vote counting process, OR

Have evidence that you both voted and the vote went uncounted

Please send me a DM request. I think you deserve an answer, whether it’s completely mundane or wins me a Pulitzer.

It’s not conspiracy to follow up on mismatches.

[redistrictgirl]

Noticed people reblogging my presidential forecast two days after polls closed. I appreciate your faith in me even if it defies logic and chronology.

[redistrictgirl]

It actually seems that it was… less close than this, even without undecideds breaking for Mr. Trump. A full postmortem of my model and strategies for future improvement will be discussed on this blog once all votes are counted. Apologies to anyone who got their hopes up from this model.

I believe that I will be able to improve my accuracy on statewide races in the future, and I already have ideas how to. However, I’m still fairly confident my House model will be the most accurate of any forecaster.

As of November 4th, 2024, the race for the US Presidency is a dead heat (52% chance for Kamala Harris).

Dear God, this is close, but overall, the Vice President has remained at least a nominal favorite for the entire election cycle in this forecast. She did fall behind in Pennsylvania's polling average, a major blow to her chances overall, but Mr. Trump closed out relatively weakly in the Southeast and lost a little ground in Wisconsin. Here are the states without an overwhelming favorite, from right to left:

Alaska (93% for Trump)

Maine's Second Congressional District (80% for Trump)

Georgia (78% for Trump)

Arizona (76% for Trump)

North Carolina (64% for Trump)

Nevada (53% for Harris)

Pennsylvania (54% for Harris)

Wisconsin (58% for Harris)

Nebraska's Second Congressional District (72% for Harris)

Michigan (73% for Harris)

Maine (92% for Harris)

Minnesota (94% for Harris)

New Mexico (94% for Harris)

Thank you for joining this ride with me. Stay calm and relax for a day (except for voting, if you haven't yet).

[redistrictgirl]

We’ll have to run a full analysis once all the votes are counted but it’s very possible that this is at least part of the story.

I think the bottom line is that this election was a red vortex on the current administration - the closer Democrats stuck to Biden, the deeper they fell. Sometimes this meant swing voters opting for the Republican, sometimes it meant pissing off your own base and having them stay home. Democrats with their own brand (North Carolina Dems as a whole, Jared Golden, AOC, Tlaib, MGP, Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester, and as much as I hate to admit it Colin Allred) actually performed quite well for *any* year.

The Democratic coalition is spread too thin ideologically. The tent was too big. If we have further free and fair elections, we need to build around the three demographics who stuck with us - Black voters, Jewish voters, and queer voters - and find the nearest 30% of the electorate to them.

AP is saying she lost by 5 million votes. which means even if all 2 million third party voters had voted for kamala harris (which would never have happened because of the libertarian party & RFK to be clear), she still would have lost.

instead of blaming leftists and palestinians for voting third party, you should be blaming the democrats for running a trash campaign. a campaign based in genocide, ethnic cleansing, cracking down on the border, children in cages, endless war with russia, endless war in korea, endless war in SWANA, the promise of war with china, refusing to actually defend (let alone protect) trans and queer people, and the list goes on. the democratic party is actively contributing to the rise of fascism in the united states, and they have been for 50 years.

[redistrictgirl]

It also appears that Sarah McBride, the first transgender congresswoman, will receive more votes than Kamala Harris in Delaware, although the margin will be closer.

In New York, Prop 1 ran twelve points ahead of Harris.

LGBT voters were one of the few constituencies to outright swing towards Democrats according to exit polling, and unlike Black voters, they’re everywhere in roughly even proportion.

As long as legitimate elections continue, we have an IMMENSE amount of leverage to make or break the next political alignment.

Ditching the queer community would be political suicide for Democrats.

[redistrictgirl]

In New York, Prop 1 ran twelve points ahead of Harris.

LGBT voters were one of the few constituencies to outright swing towards Democrats according to exit polling, and unlike Black voters, they’re everywhere in roughly even proportion.

As long as legitimate elections continue, we have an IMMENSE amount of leverage to make or break the next political alignment.

Ditching the queer community would be political suicide for Democrats.

[redistrictgirl]

This election shattered my preconceptions of what the American electorate looked like, and anyone telling you otherwise is full of baloney.

Three things I can say:

This election was clearly a referendum on President Biden himself, and specifically his handling of the economy. The left MUST find a different economic brand, a much more populist one. Whether they actually move to the left or right will largely be a matter of preference - if they actually take initiative to frame the terms of the debate. Public-facing labor organization might be cooked, though - that’s the worst news.

Americans don’t care about cultural issues - this could be good or bad! I think Democrats can move as far left as they want socially if they don’t market it and make fun of the terminally online shit the right says as irrelevant. “This guy is racist” doesn’t work, but “This guy cares more about ending miscegenation than creating jobs” could.

Neither of these points might matter if elections are suppressed. We have to stay vigilant and fight. The Resister warchest must go to lawyers and lawyers only - a low-to-the-ground campaign can clearly work.

[redistrictgirl]

I was wrong on all of these, I think, but on the right track with New Jersey. I apologize.

The Big Gut Check - Presidency

Disclaimer: This is NOT my model and this is NOT statistics-focused.

We’re in the final countdown to the second wacky federal election in a row. I have all the information I want to set some personal expectations, and a LOT of you wanted to see my hunch, so here it is. I disagree with my model.

I think Vice President Harris is in a very good position heading into Election Day. I’m not saying that as a left-leaning hack, I’m saying this from the same place that made me predict the winners of 49 out of 50 states correctly in 2020. I’m also hopeful that, after four years of studying the intricacies of electoral politics in my free time, those feelings are even sharper. I doubt I’m going to bat .980 again, to be clear, but I think I can at least provide more insight than the people who just say “it’s close, IDK” or “Harris is gonna win South Carolina” or “New Hampshire is a tossup!”

Let’s break down what I expect to be the closest states as well as some of my hot takes, including my reasoning. Margin predictions will be within two points, because a four-point range tells us nothing and trying to call it within a single point is like trying to hit a dartboard bullseye with a giant Sharpie. My favorite points of consideration included:

My hypothesis of modern political gravity, where elections center around a D+3 margin (+/- 1) in the popular vote on presidential years.

Nate Silver’s, Nate Cohn’s, and Ettingermentum’s analyses of pollster herding (or adjusting of results excessively to match the consensus).

The final Selzer, Siena, and Marist polls, parsed with an understanding of them as snapshots and not predictions.

A few smart peoples’ analyses of early voting in Pennsylvania. (Ralston would have made it too if he didn’t drag his feet.)

General Thoughts: I think Ms. Harris is being underestimated, both because her national polling average has fallen substantially below the D+2 to D+4 range we would expect from our highly polarized electorate and because her statewide polling is atrocious compared to even that. Herding might be contributing here. Mr. Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, is incredibly nervous, to the point where THEY LEAKED AN INTERNAL THAT STILL SHOWED HIM LOSING GROUND FROM 2020. I’m also seeing a high enthusiasm factor from Democrats, not just in opinion polling, but on the ground compared to what I saw in the heart of Atlanta in Fall 2020 (to be fair, enthusiasm among the GOP is also clearly substantial!) I was real about Ms. Harris’ collapse in October, but I think she’s bouncing back at the perfect time and polls are missing it (similarly to Mr. Trump in 2016, some might argue.)

Wisconsin: Yes, this is probably going to be the tipping point state again. I don’t care that Pennsylvania is supposedly closer in the polls, this happened in 2020 too. That said, we have a very good poll for Ms. Harris here from Marist and the state shares a border with Iowa (more on that later). Harris +0 to +2

Pennsylvania: 2022 repeat. Early vote has been exactly what Democrats need and hedging has been berserk in this state. The only thing that makes me hesitate on this is an even poll from Siena, even if the Marist one was rough for Mr. Trump. Harris +1 to +3

North Carolina: This might be a little bit of a surprise given my… other Sun Belt takes. But there’s a fantastic poll for Ms. Harris here from Siena and I think an overall slightly bluer environment than polls indicate will also make this closer than the current data suggest. Though it could be a “Dewey Defeats Truman” situation, Marist’s poll last week is a bright spot for Mr. Trump. Gun to my head, Harris, but this is still my pick for the closest state presidentially. Trump +1 to Harris +1

Nevada: In the absence of Ralston’s guidance, I feel like there’s a lot of split signs between polling and demographics, but this feels like a state Mr. Trump wins in a squeaker. Trump +1 to Harris +1

Georgia: Say what you will about him, but the Georgia GOP is building momentum under Governor Brian Kemp. The top pollsters have broken a bit from the riffraff, being nicer to Democrats, but I don’t think it will be quite enough. Trump +2 to +0

Arizona: If you said this would be Mr. Trump’s best swing state two years ago, I would have laughed in your face. But the polling is undeniable at this point - the former President is approaching 50% in the averages and top pollsters have been even more impressive for him. The crank in me blames Katie Hobbes for being forgettable. Trump +4 to +2

Iowa: I think Ann Selzer might have her first genuine miss on her hands - it’s just too hard to construct a presidential-year environment where Ms. Harris wins the state or keeps it as close as The Big Seven. At the same time, unless she’s comically wrong (and I would never bet that hard against her), there’s almost certainly going to be very real, very substantial movement away from Republicans in the Hawkeye State. Trump +5 to +3

Maine’s Second Congressional District: I’ve been bearish on Mr. Trump here all cycle thanks to a poor showing for the GOP in 2022, and our very limited polling here seems to line up with that. Trump +4 to +2

Kansas: Very demographically similar to Iowa, it was zooming left even before this cycle, and the lone recent poll I believe we have from this state was almost as shocking as Selzer’s, only having the Vice President trailing by 5%. Trump +10 to +8

New Jersey: It would be strange for every non-giant state to trend left or mostly stagnate, and the Garden State seems like a prime candidate to move in Mr. Trump’s direction given its proximity to New York and high nonwhite and (to a lesser extent) Orthodox Jewish population. This is a very wild guess, but hey, no polling to contradict me. Harris +8 to +10

Texas: A rare example where I think pollsters might be herding in favor of Ms. Harris, considering the border (again), nonwhite population (again), and the fact that Siena’s most recent poll, despite being nearly ten days old, had Mr. Trump gaining in the state. Trump +7 to +5

[redistrictgirl]

Pennsylvania numbers have gotten significantly better for Mr. Trump. Any loss will almost certainly give SCOTUS room to intervene.

Congratulations to Republicans. Condolences to Democrats.

Early thoughts:

Looks like we’re hedging very closely to my model’s median outcome. This is gonna be incredibly close, but if there’s any bright spot for Ms. Harris, it’s Pennsylvania, and that’s the state she must outperform expectations in.

The Senate is very much gone for Democrats, relying on a moonshot in Montana.

[redistrictgirl]

Early thoughts:

Looks like we’re hedging very closely to my model’s median outcome. This is gonna be incredibly close, but if there’s any bright spot for Ms. Harris, it’s Pennsylvania, and that’s the state she must outperform expectations in.

The Senate is very much gone for Democrats, relying on a moonshot in Montana.

[redistrictgirl]

Keep Calm. Breathe. Trust the process.

[redistrictgirl]

As of November 4th, 2024, the race for the US Presidency is a dead heat (52% chance for Kamala Harris).

Dear God, this is close, but overall, the Vice President has remained at least a nominal favorite for the entire election cycle in this forecast. She did fall behind in Pennsylvania's polling average, a major blow to her chances overall, but Mr. Trump closed out relatively weakly in the Southeast and lost a little ground in Wisconsin. Here are the states without an overwhelming favorite, from right to left:

Alaska (93% for Trump)

Maine's Second Congressional District (80% for Trump)

Georgia (78% for Trump)

Arizona (76% for Trump)

North Carolina (64% for Trump)

Nevada (53% for Harris)

Pennsylvania (54% for Harris)

Wisconsin (58% for Harris)

Nebraska's Second Congressional District (72% for Harris)

Michigan (73% for Harris)

Maine (92% for Harris)

Minnesota (94% for Harris)

New Mexico (94% for Harris)

Thank you for joining this ride with me. Stay calm and relax for a day (except for voting, if you haven't yet).

[redistrictgirl]

As of November 4th, 2024, Republicans are heavily favored (88% chance) in the race for control of the US Senate.

Republicans finally seem to pull Ohio in their direction during the last week of the campaign, but other than that, not much else to discuss.

All somewhat competitive states, from right to left:

Florida (90% chance for Republicans)

Nebraska (86% chance for Republicans)

Texas (82% chance for Republicans)

Ohio (76% chance for Republicans)

Wisconsin (78% chance for Democrats)

Nevada (78% chance for Democrats)

Pennsylvania (80% chance for Democrats)

Michigan (80% chance for Democrats)

Arizona (80% chance for Democrats)

Virginia (90% chance for Democrats)

[redistrictgirl]

As of November 4th, 2024, the race for control of the US House is a dead heat (55% chance for Republicans).

Not much movement overall in the final week outside of our first poll in Scranton's PA-8 being extremely impressive for Democrats. Watch Michigan, Iowa, and Pennsylvania tomorrow for the best idea of how the chamber will go once New York and the Western states finish counting up their ballots (a process that will take days.)

[redistrictgirl]

The Big Gut Check: Senate

Disclaimer: This is NOT my forecast or even completely statistics-based.

Yeah, no. Republicans are going to hold the Senate. I haven’t seen much of any way around that. No need to keep you in suspense for another paragraph.

I’m taking a stab in the (relative) dark and trying to estimate the final election margin for each big Senate race within two points. There’s not a lot of room for big surprises. But there’s a few hot takes in what will be close and what won’t. Let’s break things down.

Ohio: Even before the Selzer poll, I went back and forth on this state - if anyone could defy political gravity in Ohio, it was the incumbent Sherrod Brown. Now that the Midwest has been looking a bit brighter in the home stretch, I’d keep it as a near-tossup, but I’d rather be Mr. Brown. R+1 to D+1

Arizona: I think this race is going to be a little closer than people give it credit for - I’m not big on predicting giant ticket splits for unproven candidates. But former newscaster Kari Lake has struggled to even hold her own in what looks like Mr. Trump’s safest state. D+0 to +2

Nevada: Somehow, Senator Rosen is outrunning Ms. Harris??? And with the state so close presidentially, that’s enough to give her a strong edge. D+1 to +3

Michigan: If Republicans manage to overperform expectations, I think this is the first race where it happens. Unlike most swing states, Mike Rogers has been a decent candidate for the GOP, while Elissa Slotkin is less-than-inspiring. I think the latter still has an advantage due to polling and Harris coattails. D+2 to +4

Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin is a strong incumbent and her opponent has ties to Mexican cartels in an election where Republicans are motivated against immigration. D+2 to +4

Nebraska: Dan Osborn is the only person who I think could keep Nebraska close. But it’s still Nebraska, even with all the hype. Siena poll points more in his favor, but it’s basically the only high-quality data we have, and everything has a margin of error. R+3 to +5

Texas: I’m more biased against Colin Allred than any other Democrat. But the disappointment here will probably come from Harris dragging him down. R+4 to +6

Montana: This place is tough to poll, and despite Tim Sheehy’s scandals, I think the state is just too red for him to lose, even though Senator Tester has the track record to keep it close-ish. R+5 to +7

Pennsylvania: It’s Bob Casey against Dave McCormick. D+5 to +7

New Mexico: Haven’t liked the failure of Senator Heinrich to capture Harris’ coattails for himself. And God help her, Ms. Domenici has been trying. D+6 to +8

Missouri: Josh Hawley was a bad candidate in 2018 and he’s a bad candidate now. The Selzer poll also makes me a smidge more bullish on Democrats in a neighboring state. R+7 to +9

[redistrictgirl]

The Big Gut Check - Presidency

Disclaimer: This is NOT my model and this is NOT statistics-focused.

We’re in the final countdown to the second wacky federal election in a row. I have all the information I want to set some personal expectations, and a LOT of you wanted to see my hunch, so here it is. I disagree with my model.

I think Vice President Harris is in a very good position heading into Election Day. I’m not saying that as a left-leaning hack, I’m saying this from the same place that made me predict the winners of 49 out of 50 states correctly in 2020. I’m also hopeful that, after four years of studying the intricacies of electoral politics in my free time, those feelings are even sharper. I doubt I’m going to bat .980 again, to be clear, but I think I can at least provide more insight than the people who just say “it’s close, IDK” or “Harris is gonna win South Carolina” or “New Hampshire is a tossup!”

Let’s break down what I expect to be the closest states as well as some of my hot takes, including my reasoning. Margin predictions will be within two points, because a four-point range tells us nothing and trying to call it within a single point is like trying to hit a dartboard bullseye with a giant Sharpie. My favorite points of consideration included:

My hypothesis of modern political gravity, where elections center around a D+3 margin (+/- 1) in the popular vote on presidential years.

Nate Silver’s, Nate Cohn’s, and Ettingermentum’s analyses of pollster herding (or adjusting of results excessively to match the consensus).

The final Selzer, Siena, and Marist polls, parsed with an understanding of them as snapshots and not predictions.

A few smart peoples’ analyses of early voting in Pennsylvania. (Ralston would have made it too if he didn’t drag his feet.)

General Thoughts: I think Ms. Harris is being underestimated, both because her national polling average has fallen substantially below the D+2 to D+4 range we would expect from our highly polarized electorate and because her statewide polling is atrocious compared to even that. Herding might be contributing here. Mr. Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, is incredibly nervous, to the point where THEY LEAKED AN INTERNAL THAT STILL SHOWED HIM LOSING GROUND FROM 2020. I’m also seeing a high enthusiasm factor from Democrats, not just in opinion polling, but on the ground compared to what I saw in the heart of Atlanta in Fall 2020 (to be fair, enthusiasm among the GOP is also clearly substantial!) I was real about Ms. Harris’ collapse in October, but I think she’s bouncing back at the perfect time and polls are missing it (similarly to Mr. Trump in 2016, some might argue.)

Wisconsin: Yes, this is probably going to be the tipping point state again. I don’t care that Pennsylvania is supposedly closer in the polls, this happened in 2020 too. That said, we have a very good poll for Ms. Harris here from Marist and the state shares a border with Iowa (more on that later). Harris +0 to +2

Pennsylvania: 2022 repeat. Early vote has been exactly what Democrats need and hedging has been berserk in this state. The only thing that makes me hesitate on this is an even poll from Siena, even if the Marist one was rough for Mr. Trump. Harris +1 to +3

North Carolina: This might be a little bit of a surprise given my… other Sun Belt takes. But there’s a fantastic poll for Ms. Harris here from Siena and I think an overall slightly bluer environment than polls indicate will also make this closer than the current data suggest. Though it could be a “Dewey Defeats Truman” situation, Marist’s poll last week is a bright spot for Mr. Trump. Gun to my head, Harris, but this is still my pick for the closest state presidentially. Trump +1 to Harris +1

Nevada: In the absence of Ralston’s guidance, I feel like there’s a lot of split signs between polling and demographics, but this feels like a state Mr. Trump wins in a squeaker. Trump +1 to Harris +1

Georgia: Say what you will about him, but the Georgia GOP is building momentum under Governor Brian Kemp. The top pollsters have broken a bit from the riffraff, being nicer to Democrats, but I don’t think it will be quite enough. Trump +2 to +0

Arizona: If you said this would be Mr. Trump’s best swing state two years ago, I would have laughed in your face. But the polling is undeniable at this point - the former President is approaching 50% in the averages and top pollsters have been even more impressive for him. The crank in me blames Katie Hobbes for being forgettable. Trump +4 to +2

Iowa: I think Ann Selzer might have her first genuine miss on her hands - it’s just too hard to construct a presidential-year environment where Ms. Harris wins the state or keeps it as close as The Big Seven. At the same time, unless she’s comically wrong (and I would never bet that hard against her), there’s almost certainly going to be very real, very substantial movement away from Republicans in the Hawkeye State. Trump +5 to +3

Maine’s Second Congressional District: I’ve been bearish on Mr. Trump here all cycle thanks to a poor showing for the GOP in 2022, and our very limited polling here seems to line up with that. Trump +4 to +2

Kansas: Very demographically similar to Iowa, it was zooming left even before this cycle, and the lone recent poll I believe we have from this state was almost as shocking as Selzer’s, only having the Vice President trailing by 5%. Trump +10 to +8

New Jersey: It would be strange for every non-giant state to trend left or mostly stagnate, and the Garden State seems like a prime candidate to move in Mr. Trump’s direction given its proximity to New York and high nonwhite and (to a lesser extent) Orthodox Jewish population. This is a very wild guess, but hey, no polling to contradict me. Harris +8 to +10

Texas: A rare example where I think pollsters might be herding in favor of Ms. Harris, considering the border (again), nonwhite population (again), and the fact that Siena’s most recent poll, despite being nearly ten days old, had Mr. Trump gaining in the state. Trump +7 to +5

[redistrictgirl]

Posting my “gut check” on the bus tomorrow morning. Ralston better have made his call to feed my gut