#U.S. military aid Ukraine

[latestnews-now]

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarks on a crucial European visit, attending NATO’s final foreign ministers meeting before President Biden leaves office. With Ukraine's war against Russia and transatlantic security as key issues, find out how the Biden administration plans to strengthen Ukraine's position before the power transition. Stay tuned for the latest developments from Brussels and Malta.

[global-newz]

What Trump, Putin, and Zelensky Said After Biden's Missile Nod for Ukraine

The Biden administration has made a major shift in U.S. policy by approving the use of long-range ATACMS missiles for Ukraine, enabling the country to target Russian territory for the first time since the war began. This decision, made in response to escalating tensions and North Korean involvement in the war, comes just two months before President Joe Biden hands over power to his successor, Donald Trump, who has expressed skepticism about continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine.

The Policy Shift: A Game-Changer?

For over a year, Ukraine has used U.S.-made ATACMS missiles against Russian forces in occupied Ukrainian regions, but Washington had previously barred their use on Russian soil, citing concerns that it would further escalate the conflict. The U.S. decision now gives Ukraine the green light to strike targets inside Russia, with the range of these Lockheed Martin-made missiles extending up to 300 kilometers (186 miles). Ukrainian officials are expected to target critical Russian military infrastructure, including air bases, ammunition depots, and key logistical hubs, particularly in the Kursk region near the Russian-Ukrainian border.

The Strategic Importance of Kursk

The change in policy comes amid increasing concerns about Russia's growing strength in the east of Ukraine and the involvement of North Korean troops in supporting Russian forces. The deployment of North Korean soldiers to the Kursk region, specifically, has been seen as a direct challenge to Ukraine's defense efforts. Ukraine's forces are expected to launch a counter-offensive in this region, which has been a key battleground for both Russia and Ukraine.

While the decision to provide long-range missiles could grant Ukraine an advantage, experts caution that it may not be enough to shift the momentum of the war entirely. Ukraine’s leadership hopes that the missiles will give their forces the ability to target critical Russian supply lines and military installations that could otherwise be out of reach, but the overall effect of the move remains uncertain.

Russian Reaction: Escalation Fears

Moscow's response has been one of intense alarm, with Russian officials warning that the move could lead to further escalation. Russian President Vladimir Putin has long warned that Western military support for Ukraine could cross a dangerous threshold, and he reiterated his concerns this week. "This will mean that NATO countries, the USA, and European states are effectively fighting with Russia," Putin said in September, acknowledging the growing stakes in the conflict.

Andrei Klishas, a prominent Russian Federation senator, called the U.S. decision an "overdue symbolic move" that could escalate the war to dangerous levels, predicting that it could "end with Ukrainian statehood in complete ruins by morning." Another Russian senator, Vladimir Dzhabarov, took a more dramatic tone, stating that this move could be a "very big step" toward World War III.

Trump's Response: Mixed Signals

In the United States, the decision has reignited the debate over the role of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, with former President Donald Trump and his supporters expressing mixed feelings. Trump has consistently criticized the extensive U.S. support for Ukraine, suggesting that the Biden administration's approach has been reckless and insufficiently focused on peace talks. However, Trump’s position on how to handle the war is far from clear, as some of his officials advocate for continued assistance to Ukraine, while others are pushing for a reduction in support.

Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., voiced concerns over the potential for global conflict, writing on social media that the "military industrial complex seems to want to make sure they get World War III going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives." His remarks reflect the ongoing division within the Republican Party on the issue of Ukraine.

On the other hand, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz suggested that Trump might speed up the delivery of weapons to Ukraine in order to pressure Russia into negotiations. This could align with Trump’s stated goal of resolving the conflict quickly—he has previously said he could bring an end to the war within a single day.

However, other members of the GOP, including Vice President-elect JD Vance, have been vocal in their opposition to further U.S. involvement. During a speech in May, Vance declared, "We’ve done more than our fair share" and expressed skepticism about continuing to fund what he described as a "never-ending war." Vance, along with other critics, argues that the U.S. should focus on domestic priorities rather than becoming further entrenched in a foreign conflict.

Global Reactions: A Symbolic Gesture or a Strategic Move?

While many Western diplomats have welcomed the decision as a necessary escalation to demonstrate unwavering support for Ukraine, some are cautious. They acknowledge that the ATACMS missiles, while powerful, may not be enough to turn the tide of the war or bring about a decisive military victory. In some circles, this move is seen as more symbolic, showing that the West remains committed to backing Ukraine despite increasing risks of direct confrontation with Russia.

The global community remains divided, with some fearing that the U.S. decision may increase the likelihood of nuclear escalation, while others believe that providing Ukraine with the necessary firepower to defend its sovereignty is essential.

The Road Ahead

As tensions continue to rise, both in Ukraine and on the international stage, the role of military aid and diplomatic negotiations will continue to be at the forefront of discussions. Ukraine is relying heavily on Western support, but the geopolitical consequences of this support, particularly in the face of an unpredictable Russian response, make the situation volatile.

The next phase of the war is likely to be shaped not only by the missiles that are now in Ukraine’s hands but also by the political decisions made in Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv. With the U.S. presidential election looming, the policy direction under the next administration could drastically alter the course of the conflict.

As the world watches closely, it remains to be seen whether this new development will bring Ukraine closer to victory or further entrench the conflict, pushing both sides toward even greater escalation.

[abignewscom]

Putin on Trump Victory, Talks on Ukraine

Putin’s Reaction to Trump’s Victory Russian President Vladimir Putin, known for his reserved nature, publicly congratulated Trump on his win. Calling him “courageous,” Putin noted the many obstacles Trump faced in his political journey. His admiration seemed rooted in Trump’s resilience and fortitude amid political challenges. Historical Relationship Between Putin and Trump The Trump-Putin…

[ivygorgon]

An open letter to the U.S. Congress

Pass Ukraine aid NOW!!!

953 so far! Help us get to 1,000 signers!

Congress is facing a critical decision on supplemental aid for Ukraine. It failed to pass supplemental aid for Ukraine in its September continuing budget resolution. I am writing to ask that you help rectify this exclusion and vote yes on Ukraine aid. Ukraine is running out of supplies. As Russian strikes on civilians continue, the U.S. cannot turn its back on Ukraine. The United States is not alone in supporting Ukraine—in fact, 19 other countries have committed a greater percentage of their GDP to help than the U.S. has. Aid for Ukraine has some of the strictest oversight and accountability mechanisms in the history of U.S. aid, helping to make sure that this aid isn��t wasted. Giving Ukraine the tools it needs to finish the fight is the right thing to do to ensure that more Russian atrocities are stopped. Moreover, of the $67 billion spent on military aid to Ukraine, 100% of that is for weapons produced in the United States — this represents a serious investment in domestic manufacturing and American jobs. Aiding Ukraine enhances American readiness and prosperity. As your constituent, I’m asking that you please vote YES and work to make sure this legislation passes. And quickly! Thanks.

▶ Created on December 8, 2023 by Jess Craven

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[qqueenofhades]

I really really REALLY need to see more people makimg the connection between trump and his russian handlers tbh.......like i know we've somehow gone through the looking glass of putin apologia but that piece abt the NYT you just posted, the bots, the interference: in the bag for trump? Yes. But i dont believe its due to his or even republican power or popularity or forcefulness.......this is a man with so much debt and kompromat thats only getting worse!! Not to sound kwazy BUT WE ARE BEING FULLY INFLITRATED and at the risk of conspiracizing i think the russians are ALSO behind the Times's demise along with so many other information centers etc. Like i KNOW these leftists love him but like. Wouldnt they care a LITTLE abt being manipulated like this???

Trump is 100% an active, willing, and eager Russian agent. That's not even paranoid conspiracy theory, that's just the only reasonable interpretation of the facts:

NOT TO MENTION that in the next two years after the Helsinki conference where Trump kowtowed to Putin in every way, the CIA admitted to losing huge and unusually high numbers of classified informants around the world (not CIA agents, but people secretly working for the American government in often-hostile countries):

Once again, this all happened when Trump was in office, when he was actively handing over CIA intel to the Kremlin against the wishes of the entire national security establishment, and which other experts have suggested was directly as a result of Trump handing over the identities of American informants to Russia, including those stationed in Russia itself:

Now, I could go on, but you get the point. Not to mention that Trump just lost a major UK-based lawsuit against Christopher Steele, the former MI6 agent who was the first to provide documents linking Trump to Russia in the controversial "Steele dossier":

And now: Trump is deeply in hock for hundreds of millions in legal fees and punitive judgments that are only increasing by the day, he somehow just came up with $90 million to appeal the judgment against E. Jean Carroll (nobody knows where he got this money either), and Russian state TV spends all their time openly salivating for Trump's return to the presidency (so he can hand over Ukraine and the rest of NATO and, as he literally said, "let Russia do whatever the hell they want.") I know we're largely numb to all the awful treasonous shit that Trump does, but like. This isn't a conspiracy theory, this is just what's going on in plain sight, and while the Online Leftists have recently become so stupid that I honestly can't tell if it's just terminal brainworms or active Russian psyops, it's strongly indicated that it is in fact a mix of both:

So, like. Just some food for thought.

[ukraineblr]

This is seriously a new level of being a douchebag.

- You directly undermine Ukraine's defense effort by turning Starlinks off for the Ukrainian military right in the middle of important operations and letting the Russian military use it despite U.S. sanctions

- You spread the most idiotic "nuclear war" takes whispered to you in the ear by the Russian ambassador in the U.S. and even Putin himself

- You give voice and listen to the most insane conspiracy theorists talking about "proxy war", "biolabs", "deep state", and "money laundering", as well as blowhard demagogues and media con artists openly praising Putin and his regime

- You use your multimillion-stong global audience to directly propagate the Ukrainian surrender to Russia's war of aggression and publicly ridicule Ukraine's calls for international defense aid in its war against one of the world's largest military powers

- You directly undermined U.S. aid to Ukraine and publicly called for "killing" a long-belated aid at the U.S. Congress despite Ukraine running critically low on air defense and munitions because you and your arrogant yes-men had decided that "Putin just can't lose"

And when the situation deteriorates, particularly due to months-long delays in the most essential and urgent defense aid, this shameless douche says "I did predict it" (while again completely ignoring the fact that POLITICO makes it perfectly clear that Ukraine is 'heading for defeat' due to the West's failure to send weapons to Kyiv).

No, Elmo, you did not 'predict' anything.

You precipitated this.

This war started with Ukrainians praising you as the free world's techno hero and naming streets after you.

Now you have degraded yourself to being one of Russia's key useful idiots amid the most terrible and the largest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler.

Keep listening to the likes of Ian Miles Cheong and David Sacks and dive deeper into your delusions and absolute moral bankruptcy.

We in Ukriane have seen our share of smartasses giving us between 48 and 72 hours two years ago.

In this war, we've been through so many impossible things that you can't even imagine, let alone "predict".

We will overcome this too -- and will get the aid, will survive as an independent nation and a democracy, and will bring peace back to Europe by derailing Russian aggression.

(c) Illia Ponomarenko

[creature-wizard]

Why americans always think is the russians intervening and not their own country ? Like you know the cia is known to intervene in elections across the world right.

Also the main social medias are all own by right wing billionaires like elon musk.

But nahh it must be the evil russians!

Because Russian bots are a real thing, maybe?????????????? Because Russia pushed Jill Stein to split the vote???????????? Because we know damn good and well that the Russian government does, in fact, do this shit?

[comeonamericawakeup]

A running cliché in the mainstream media is that the U.S. is "polarized" into two "extreme camps," said Jennifer Rubin.

This is simply untrue. Democrats have some far-left elements, but President Biden and the party's congressional leaders have repeatedly proven they are willing "to move to the center to get bipartisan support." Not so the Republicans, who "have become radicalized and unmovable." Republicans recently buried a tough bipartisan border bill they helped forge because Donald Trump feared it would be effective. They overwhelmingly opposed the Infrastructure Bill and the Chips Act to help fund semiconductor factories in the U.S., and refused to convict an impeached Trump for inciting a violent insurrection.

They are denying military aid critical to Ukraine's survival, and siding with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson "is a Christian nationalist who thinks he was chosen by God and takes direction from the Bible, not the Constitution." Virtually every Republican official now is endorsing Donald Trump, "the most extreme, racist candidate since the Civil War," who warns that immigrants are "poisoning the blood" of the country. That's not polarization. That's "one party going off the deep end."

THE WEEK March 22, 2024

[rederiswrites]

Why are we afraid of a Trump presidency? Well, here's the beginning of political historian Heather Cox Richardson's daily writeup:

April 30, 2024 (Tuesday) This morning, Time magazine published a cover story by Eric Cortellessa about what Trump is planning for a second term. Based on two interviews with Trump and conversations with more than a dozen of his closest advisors, the story lays out Trump’s conviction that he was “too nice” in his first term and that he would not make such a mistake again. Cortellessa writes that Trump intends to establish “an imperial presidency that would reshape America and its role in the world.” He plans to use the military to round up, put in camps, and deport more than 11 million people. He is willing to permit Republican-dominated states to monitor pregnancies and prosecute people who violate abortion bans. He will shape the laws by refusing to release funds appropriated by Congress (as he did in 2019 to try to get Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky to smear Hunter Biden). He would like to bring the Department of Justice under his own control, pardoning those convicted of attacking the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, and ending the U.S. system of an independent judiciary. In a second Trump presidency, the U.S. might not come to the aid of a European or Asian ally that Trump thinks isn’t paying enough for its own defense. Trump would, Cortelessa wrote, “gut the U.S. civil service, deploy the National Guard to American cities as he sees fit, close the White House pandemic-preparedness office, and staff his Administration with acolytes who back his false assertion that the 2020 election was stolen.” To that list, former political director of the AFL-CIO Michael Podhorzer added on social media that if Trump wins, “he could replace [Supreme Court justices Clarence] Thomas, [Samuel] Alito, and 40+ federal judges over 75 with young zealots.” “I ask him, Don’t you see why many Americans see such talk of dictatorship as contrary to our most cherished principles?” Cortellessa wrote. No, Trump said. “‘I think a lot of people like it.”

[mapsontheweb]

U.S. President Biden has Signed into Law the Foreign Aid Bill which was Approved last night by the Senate and will see upwards of $95 Billion in Military Assistance provided to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

[latestnews-now]

Donald Trump has appointed retired General Keith Kellogg as his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. With deep military experience and a firm 'America First' policy, Kellogg faces the challenge of resolving one of the world’s most pressing conflicts. Will his leadership bring an end to the war? Find out in this detailed analysis!

[mariacallous]

A month after Franklin D. Roosevelt won the 1940 presidential election, he called for legislation to ramp up military aid to countries fighting Nazi Germany. Congress passed the Lend-Lease Act in March 1941. Within months, Britain and the Soviet Union were pounding Adolf Hitler’s forces with U.S. weapons and other equipment.

Now that Americans have voted to return Donald Trump to the White House, the situation risks flipping into reverse: After Jan. 20, 2025, the United States may abandon its European allies to Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s fascist war machine.

During his campaign, Trump said he will “not give a penny to Ukraine.” Part of his plan to end the war “in one day” is that he would “tell [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky, no more. You got to make a deal.” But if Russia is allowed to conquer and subjugate Ukraine, it would only be a matter of which democracy gets colonized next by a neighboring dictatorship: Poland, the Baltic States, Moldova, or Taiwan.

Thus, over the next 75 days, Congress and the Biden administration face an urgent historic mission to help Ukraine get as many weapons as possible before a possible withdrawal of U.S. support.

U.S. President Joe Biden has directed the Defense Department to draw down all remaining Ukrainian security aid that Congress has appropriated by the end of his term. It’s not clear if the Pentagon could supply much more weaponry than that by Inauguration Day, even if it received additional funding from Congress.

Instead, the way to promptly fund more arms is to bankroll Ukrainian procurement of U.S. weapons. Specifically, Biden should request, and Congress should pass, another supplemental funding bill on a similar scale as the one in April, which included $60.8 billion for Ukraine. The new supplemental should authorize the administration to spend any amount of the aid—up to the full amount—to cut a massive check to the Ukrainian government with the stipulation that Ukraine use the funds to purchase U.S.-made weapons.

Sending Ukraine $60 billion to spend on weapons would be entirely consistent with the strategy that the Biden administration had been preparing in case of a Trump win. One of Biden’s main initiatives has been to push the G-7 to give $50 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, deliberately structuring the transfer to get out the door before Jan. 20 so that Trump cannot stop it. Biden originally wanted to seize and give to Kyiv all $300 billion of Russia’s frozen money, but the Europeans could not be convinced. The administration has also shown its willingness to throw U.S. budgetary resources into the mix: When the $50 billion was blocked by the Hungarian government, the White House engineered a clever way of guaranteeing the money through the Treasury Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development.

The key political challenge, however, could be getting House Speaker Mike Johnson to support this legislation during the lame duck period, when he will probably be preparing to run for another term as speaker. This may require some hardball maneuvering by some of the many pro-Ukraine Republicans in the House. It would be much easier, of course, if Trump quietly goes along with it, like he did with the last supplemental.

The United States would not be the first government to fund Ukrainian arms procurement. Denmark paved the way this year with a grant that finances contracts between Ukraine and defense manufacturers. Denmark and Ukraine developed a transparent set of financial controls that include factory site visits, validation of delivery, and auditing processes. All sides regard this pilot program as so successful that other allies are pulling out their checkbooks to join in on the action.

Americans’ tax dollars would be safely held by the most credibly reformed and reputably led wing of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry: the defense procurement agency. In the early weeks of the full-scale invasion, when Russian forces were bearing down on Kyiv and heavy Western weapons hadn’t yet arrived, Ukraine’s desperate Defense Ministry called up illicit intermediaries, begging them to help buy up old stocks of Soviet-type munitions on the notoriously opaque and fragmented international arms market. But over the following months, as Western aid started flowing, Ukraine’s strategy shifted to building a clean, transparent pipeline for buying weapons straight from producers.

Established in August 2022, the defense procurement agency is now run by Maryna Bezrukova, a seasoned reformer who previously cleaned up procurement at Ukraine’s national electricity company. To be her deputy, Bezrukova hired Ukraine’s most reputably independent corruption investigator: Artem Sytnyk, the former head of the state National Anti-Corruption Bureau. With these sheriffs in town, the surest way for even the most powerful Ukrainians to go to jail is to try to corruptly make money off weapons acquisitions.

Under this reformist leadership, the defense procurement agency is aggressively cutting out intermediaries by contracting directly with arms manufacturers. The clearest sign of success is that excluded arms dealers and their cronies are attacking Bezrukova with threatening messages, smear campaigns, and doxing on Telegram. Most recently, these intermediaries tried to sideline Bezrukova by getting Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to merge her agency into another one—and fire her in the process. That announcement triggered such strong pushback by NATO and Ukrainian civil society that the minister canceled the planned reorganization. Instead, with support from Ukraine’s allies, the ministry formed a new supervisory board of reputable experts to oversee the procurement agency.

Any U.S. legislation that funds weapons contracts arranged by Ukraine’s defense procurement agency should come with one additional condition: Before Kyiv receives any money, it must enact legislation mandating the existence of the agency, safeguarding the independence of its supervisory board, and most importantly, prohibiting the defense minister from firing the agency head without a concurring decision by the supervisory board.

Beyond the strategic benefits, this approach could create jobs for Americans during Trump’s second term, largely in states that voted for him. Unlike military aid provided by Europe or allocated by NATO, U.S. funding would come right back home: to Northrop Grumman’s gun truck production line in Arizona, General Dynamics’ artillery shell facility in Texas, Raytheon’s missile factory in Alabama, and Lockheed Martin’s F-16 plant in South Carolina.

To prevent the Trump administration from using executive authority to block the export of weapons procured by Ukraine under the program, Congress should insert one exemption to the Buy American requirement: If the U.S. government ends up blocking exports, Ukraine would be free to redirect the funds to non-U.S. arms manufacturers.

Just as vital as the original Lend-Lease Act, this legislation could be called the Buy American Weapons Act. And it would keep the United States on the right side of history against the imperial armies that are once again on the march.

[sayruq]

According to the senior Israeli official, in increasingly short supply are 155 mm artillery shells and 120 mm tank shells. The U.S. had been supplying similar munitions to Ukraine, which also reports specifically running low on 155 mm artillery shells. The senior Israeli official said some sensitive guidance equipment was also needed, but declined to elaborate. The person said any delays are particularly worrisome because European states are also now reluctant to sell arms to Israel. The official added that Israel "might lose this war" because in order to win, Israel needs ammunition and legitimacy, and both are starting to run out, he said.

[qqueenofhades]

Russia is already spreading disinformation in advance of the 2024 election, using fake online accounts and bots to damage President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats, according to former U.S. officials and cyber experts.  The dissemination of attacks on Biden is part of a continuing effort by Moscow to undercut American military aid to Ukraine and U.S. support for and solidarity with NATO, experts said. [....] The type of pro-Russia online propaganda campaigns that thrived on Twitter and Facebook ahead of the 2016 U.S. presidential election is now routine on every major social media platform, though it’s rare for individual accounts to go as viral now as they once did.

[simply-ivanka]

Germany Should Have Listened to Trump

Tuesday 2.27.2024 Wall Street Journal

By Walter Russell Mead

Trump was right about Berlin’s self-defense and risky energy dependence on Russia.

The lower house of Germany’s Parliament voted to legalize the recreational use of cannabis last week. It was a timely move. Germany’s leadership class is going to need all the mellow it can find in a world that isn’t going Germany’s way.

Russian advances in Ukraine and American paralysis over the next aid package are reinforcing the reality that Germany needs to defend itself but lacks the power to do so. So are developments in the Red Sea, where German manufacturers must cope with shipping delays as the Biden administration fails to keep the vital waterway clear.

Forget the 2% of gross domestic product that Germany has repeatedly promised and failed to spend on defense. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius shocked many observers this month when he said that in the new world situation, Germany may have to spend as much as 3.5% of GDP for defense.

The economic news is also grim. Last year Germany’s GDP shrank 0.3%, and last week the government slashed 2024 growth estimates to a pitiful 0.2%. Economists expect negative growth during the first quarter of 2024, placing the country in recession. The outlook for housing is bleak, with business confidence reaching all-time lows. The news in manufacturing is little better. This month the widely followed HCOB German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 46.1, the eighth month in a row that the index has pointed to decreasing economic activity.

Energy prices are a particular sore spot. The chemical giant BASF announced €1 billion in spending cuts in its German operations, blaming a mix of weak demand in the German market and “structurally higher energy prices.” Enormous U.S. subsidies under the so-called Inflation Reduction Act are leading German companies to look across the Atlantic.

Chinese competition is another massive worry. China long ago passed Germany as the world’s largest car producer. Increasingly, especially in electric vehicles, it is challenging Germany as both a low-cost and high-quality manufacturer. Beijing aims to marginalize German capital goods and automobile companies in China while Chinese exporters challenge German dominance in world markets.

With the associations representing the small and medium-size Mittelstand firms that make up the heart of the German economy warning in a rare joint open letter about Germany’s loss of competitiveness, Economy Minister Robert Habeck isn’t mincing words. The economy is in “rough waters.” The “competitiveness of Germany as an industrial location” is in doubt.

It isn’t all doom and gloom. The outlook for the service sector is brighter than for manufacturing, and as the Journal reported last week, the Ifo Institute’s business-climate index improved slightly this month. The best that can be said for the outlook? “The German economy is stabilizing at a low level,” according to Ifo’s president.

Meanwhile, Germany’s dysfunctional three-party coalition government is paralyzed by internal struggles. The largest party in the coalition, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), is deeply divided over foreign policy, with many nostalgic for good relations with Russia and allergic to military spending. The SPD also wants Biden-like government spending initiatives to revive the German industrial machine and expand social benefits. The Greens, the next-largest party, are by German standards foreign-policy hawks but continue to press for a rapid energy transition that drives up costs for business and consumers. The third party in the coalition, the Free Democrats, wants to hold the line on government spending. As if this weren’t enough trouble, the conservative opposition parties have a blocking minority in Parliament’s upper house.

This is not where Germans thought they would be. Sixteen months ago, I visited Berlin and heard from a stream of government officials, think tankers and economists that everything was working fine. Russia was failing in Ukraine. The energy transition would boost German competitiveness and employment. Germany’s Mittelstand would handle anything China could throw at it.

Under the circumstances, it’s no surprise that antiestablishment parties are growing in Germany. The far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) currently has more support than any of the governing parties, with one recent poll showing the AfD at 19%, the Social Democrats at 14%, the Greens at 13%, and the Free Democrats at 4%.

The most bitter pill of all for Germany’s establishment may be the realization that on the most important issues facing Germany, Donald Trump was right where they were wrong. Getting in bed with Vladimir Putin for cheap energy was both foolish and deeply disloyal to the West. German defense policy was self-defeating and dangerous. China wasn’t a reliable partner.

“Ich bin ein Berliner,” was President John F. Kennedy’s message to Germany. If Donald Trump returns to the White House, his message will likely be “Das habe ich gleich gesagt,” or “I told you so.”