#statistical law

[creekfiend]

I saw this on FB today and I wanna try and express something about it. Like, you know the curbcutter effect? Where when curbcuts are put in it benefits everyone (bicyclists, people with baby strollers etc) and not just disabled people?

There is also whatever the opposite of the curbcutter effect is. And this is that.

This isn't just anti-adhd/autism propaganda... this is anti-child propaganda.

Kids have developmentally appropriate ways that they need to move their bodies and express themselves and sitting perfectly still staring straight ahead is not natural or good for ANY CHILD.

Don't get me wrong, I was punished unduly as a kid for being neurodivergent (and other types of kid will ALSO be punished unduly for it... Black kids come to mind) and thus UNABLE to perform this -- but even the kids who ARE able to perform this type of behavior are not SERVED WELL by it. They don't benefit from it.

This is bad for everyone.

The idea that bc some kids may be capable of complying with unfair expectations, those expectations don't hurt them... is a dangerous idea. Compliance isn't thriving. Expectation of compliance isn't fair treatment.

[trivalentlinks]

Saw (and reblogged) a Benfords Law post going around asking people to vote the first digit of the current number of votes, which is cool! There's something deterministic about it, though (explanation below cut).

So let's do a more chaotic (less predictable) version and see if it still works:

Please vote the first digit of the number of notes on the post directly above this one on your dash.

So if the previous post has 213 notes, vote 2. If there is no previous post or it has no notes, use the post below. If that also has no notes or would take too much scrolling, vote None.

Then please reblog so more people can see this and we can try to get a better distribution!

Explanation:

For the version where you vote the first digit of the number of votes on the current poll, it's deterministic (up to human/computer error) because:

Based on the total number of votes at the end, say N, you can predict (without Benford's Law) how many votes each digit should have, assuming everyone votes correctly, because you know how many numbers less than N have each digit as their first digit.

For example, when I voted and reblogged there were roughly 28000 votes, and the numbers for digits 3-9 were the same, which could have been predicted from the fact that the number of numbers <28000 that start with a 3 is the same as the number of them that start with a 4, etc: they are all 1,111:

For 3 it's 1000 (for numbers 3000-3999) + 100 (for numbers 300-399) + 10 (for numbers 30-39) + 1 (for the number 3), so 1111.

Same for those that start with 4: 1000 (for numbers 4000-4999) + 100 (for numbers 400-499) + 10 (for numbers 40-49) + 1 (for the number 3), so 1111.

The number for 1 would be the same 1,111 as above except with an extra 10,000 for numbers 10,000-20,000, so total 11,111.

And for 2 would be 81,111, for the same 1111 as before but plus 80,000 for 20,000-28,000 (where 28,000 is the total number of votes).

There would be some error due to people voting incorrectly, or timing issues (someone voting before seeing the page update from the previous person's vote), but the distribution would be mostly predictable.

(Though this is not exactly the right distribution, because in the poll they all basically had 6% and the calculation says it should be 4%; I wonder if a nontrivial number of people are accidentally clicking last digit instead?)

[todays-xkcd]

[later] I'm pleased to report we're now identifying and replacing hundreds of outdated metrics per hour.

Goodhart's Law [Explained]

Transcript Under the Cut

[Cueball and White Hat are standing and talking, White Hat with hand on his chin.] Cueball: When a metric becomes a target, it ceases to be a good metric. White Hat: Sounds bad. Let's offer a bonus to anyone who identifies a metric that has become a target.

[phantomstatistician]

Fandom: Soul Eater

Sample Size: 4,013 stories

Source: AO3

[dontforgetukraine]

From October 7-13, Russia launched against Ukraine... -Nearly 900 aerial bombs -Over 40 missiles -400 drones

[pro-birth]

According to the GEPI analysis, maternal mortality in Texas increased from 2019 to 2020 to 2021. For those of you who recall how time works, this is nearly all before the Texas heartbeat law went into effect in September 2021. What happened after the abortion ban? Texas maternal mortality substantially decreased.

Even if we assume that there are no methodological issues with the GEPI analysis, it demostrates precisely the opposite of what NBC’s descriptions and headline suggest. Their headline should more accurately say “A dramatic decrease in maternal deaths after Texas abortion ban.”

Lyman Stone, a demographer and director of research for Demographic Intelligence, took a closer look at the data. He gathered data from the CDC WONDER’s Multiple Mortality Database 2018-2024. He used all deaths related to childbirth and pregnancy to ensure the broadest possible data set.

Again, no “skyrocketing” in maternal deaths in Texas, as compared to other parts of the country, either after the Texas heartbeat law (September 2021) or after Dobbs (June 2022).

[sillygrossgirl]

The fact that after Dr Moumita was brutally raped and killed, yet to recieve a smidge of justice and evidence was even purposely destroyed to deter the investigation, people went to porn sites to search her name and find photos/ videos of her last moments alive. Recently found out this apparently happens everytime a case of someone being sexually assaulted/ killed goes "viral".

The thing is that its not exactly shocking to me, but it still makes my skin crawl. People are out here protesting and trying to get her justice, meanwhile others are doing this.

[ninhaoma-ya]

Statistically significant just got an update.

This chapter, après-ski!

Read it wherever you find your fanfics:

AO3

ff.net

If you want a notification, let me know and I’ll add you to the tag list!

@rhaelaria-the-piratequeen @chromatic-lamina @in-starlit-nights @traffy-kun @gravitymikanheart

[bodymodificationnation]

It’s so funny to me when Americans say they wouldn’t go to Australia because it’s too dangerous as we have snakes and spiders.

You had 604 mass shootings last year. Killing 754 people and injuring 2,443.

We only have 2 snake fatalities a year and no one has died from a spider bite since 1979.

[marieshyperf1xations]

Protest by AM on Carlos being allowed to continue in Q2 despite stopping has been dismissed on account of “yea basically we’ve done this before, it’s been an issue before but he restarted without outside help and we never agreed on adding the outside assistance part to the rules and there was never a clear ruling on how long a car is allowed to be stationary before restarting on their own so lol I guess we’re gonna let this go”

This has been a service post

[archtroop]

Me, an Architect in Isrsel. Looking at the statistics of this war:

If ANY of you, out there, civil engineers, architects, and outdoor designers, DARE to design anything, ANYTHING slightly wheelchair un-friendly, I will FreddyKrueger your sleepless nights myself.

[phantomstatistician]

Fandom: One Piece

Character: Roronoa Zoro

Sample Size: 19,596 stories

Source: AO3

[talonpaw]

one of the other board members mentioned that they were also on wc tumblr

[alwaysbewoke]

unless you're a highly religious man, marriage just isn't worth the risk if you're a guy. you don't realize this when you're young, which is when you're most vulnerable, but as you get older, as you learn more about life, as you learn more about women, as you learn more about the games that are being played in relationships, as you learn more about divorce rates, as you learn more about people staying in unhappy marriages for the sake of kids, appearances, finances, etc., the more you realize that marriage is a gamble where the stakes are stacked against you as a man. this is especially true if you're not a wealthy man. if you're wealthy (like say a net worth of 50 million) and you lose half of that, you're still really rich and chances are you have the know-how and connections to make back what you lost. however, if you're a guy just making 50k a year and you suddenly lose half or more, you can literally find yourself homeless. it's crazy.

[goldberg-loren-car-accident-law]

🚶‍♂️ Portland Pedestrian Accidents: A Closer Look 🚶‍♀️Explore the critical issue of pedestrian accidents in Portland with our latest infographic. Learn about the factors contributing to these incidents and discover how legal support can make a difference for those affected. Visit Goldberg & Loren's Portland Pedestrian Accident Page to gain insights into protecting your rights and ensuring safer streets for everyone.

[if-you-fan-a-fire]

"MIXED MARRIAGES IN ONTARIO MANY," Windsor Record. October 30, 1913. Page 1. ---- Toronto, Oct. 30. - That the Ne Temere decree is not working out to the absolute stoppage of mixed marriages is shown in the annual report of the registrar-general of the province issued today.

According to the figures, 820 men and 1,096 women married outside their faith.

The number of marriages totalled 28,445. Nearly two-thirds of those married were between 20 and 30 years of age. The unusual marriages included a man of 25, who married a woman over 70 and three women under 30 marrying men over 70.

The province showed a reduced death rate for the year, lower than in many other countries. On the other hand there is the announcement that one of every ten infants in Ontario dies before attaining the fifth year.

The birth-rate was 22.4 per thousand, the lowest since 1902. In 1911 it was 22.6.

Deaths numbered 32,150, or 12.4 per thousand, or 2 lower than in 1911. Illegitimate births showed an increase of 168. Seventy-two per cent. of these births were in cities.

The battle with the white plague showed good progress. There was a total of 2,250 deaths, but this was a decrease of 103 and a decrease in percentage of 05. About seven per cent. of the deaths in Ontario were from tuberculosis. The heaviest death rate from the disease is between 20 and 30 years of age.

One out of every ten infants die before its fifth year. There were 8,230 of such deaths, while 6,494 died before completing 12 months. Two hundred less died from diarr- hoea than in 1911, the lowest in six years.

This was attributed to the greater interest in child welfare and the successful efforts to educate young mo- thers in the care of children.