#The Ashford tourney

[duchess-of-oldtown]

According to the way they adapted Fire and Blood in House of the Dragon, we can probably expect some changes in Dunk and Egg:

Dunk is actually the long lost son of Daemon Blackfyre and Dornish Daenerys Targaryen (y'know because EVERYONE has to have their parents explained)

Egg will not be loyal to Dunk, he'll be a total scumbag

Maekar DID kill Baelor on purpose.

Before Baelor dies he whispers that Egg should be King and Dunk must immediately be named a Kingsguard.

Aerion will commit like one actrocity and then get a redemption arc.

Bloodraven and Bittersteel are estranged lovers (this could work) and all this is a bitter divorce

Bloodraven gets his info by selling feet pics. The trees told him that's how Alicent did it.

Shiera Seastar DOES actually eat children and bathe in blood.

Daeron the Drunken will take so much fantasy cocaine/LSD that the whole thing was actually all an acid trip

Daemon II Blackfyre will not serve cunt or camp.

The Blackfyre Rebellion? All happened in one big miscommunication Trope.

The dragons aren't dead, they're actually just finding themselves in the wilderness, you know? They're just really getting into their earthy crunch side.

Maekar Targaryen will do nothing all season. Just serve face and say offensive shit

The Dornish will be an integral part of the season. You will only know about it because of Behind the Episode.

Valarr Targaryen is a socialist and that is why they killed him off.

The mastermind behind all the Targaryen deaths? Baby Walder Frey.

Who really stole the dragon egg at Whitewalls? Time Travelling Penny in disguise.

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

The Hedge Knight graphic novel - could it work as a roadmap for HBO's A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms?

So, per reports, HBO's Dunk & Egg show is going to be 6 episodes. I've seen several people saying that's too long, it should be 4 episodes at most, a 2 hour movie at most, there will be too much filler, blah blah blah. Well let me tell you, that's not true!

In 2003, The Hedge Knight was adapted as a 6 issue comic book (later collected as a graphic novel), and I think its script, each issue ending in a cliffhanger or dun-dun-dunnn moment, would work perfectly for the show, and is very probably how they'll do it.

Potential spoilers under the cut, but first - is this not perfect casting and costuming? It so is.

Like I said, I think each issue could be the plot of each episode. So I'm just going to summarize these issues, I hope you've read the GN or the novella. (If not, go read it, go read all of Dunk & Egg, it's so good.)

#1 - Dunk buries Ser Arlan, decides to go to Ashford for the tourney, meets Egg and a weird drunk guy at an inn on the way, gets to Ashford, sets up camp in the forest (bathes naked in a stream), goes to the tourney field and sees Tanselle performing her puppet show, gets measured for armor he can't quite afford, gets back to his camp to find the weird little bald kid making dinner.

#2 - Dunk agrees Egg can be his squire, that night he sees the falling star, next morning goes to Ashford castle and gets told he needs to prove he's a knight to enter the tourney (or that Arlan was, since he says Arlan knighted him), meets Aerion (badly) but also the Kingsguard, sells his horse for armor money, talks to Tanselle and meets the Fossoways, then meets up with the young Dondarrion lord whose dad Arlan worked for and relates the House Dondarrion origin story (imagine them telling that via puppet imagery, ooh), gets told "yeah knowing that is no proof you're a knight, sucks to be you".

#3 - Dunk goes back to the castle, stumbles into Baelor and Maekar arguing about M's missing kids, Baelor remembers his epic joust with Arlan so yay Dunk can be in the tourney, Dunk and Egg talk to Tanselle about painting him a shield, they watch the opening of the tourney (lots of jousting and pageantry including Lyonel "the Laughing Storm" Baratheon), and the first day ends after Aerion deliberately kills that horse.

#4 - Dunk argues with Egg over how much of a douche Aerion is, more flirting with Tanselle, gossip with Raymun Fossoway about the Targaryens, Egg runs in to say Aerion's hurting Tanselle, Dunk beats up Aerion and almost gets murdered by Aerion's goons, Egg reveals himself to save Dunk, Dunk in prison, talks to Egg and Baelor, Baelor tells him he can be mutilated for striking a prince or ask for trial by combat, so "how good a knight are you, truly?"

#5 - Aerion says sure, trial by combat, but only a trial of seven, Dunk has to find 6 guys, talks to Raymun and Steffon Fossoway, Daeron apologizes and tells Dunk his dragon dream, shield reveal, next morning the smallfolk are all "a knight who remembered his vows", various guys show up to help Dunk and Raymun gets knighted, but Steffon Fossoway goes to Aerion's side so they're still missing a guy, "are there no true knights among you?", wait is that Valarr??? no it's Baelor in Valarr's armor omg

#6 - The trial of seven. You know how this ends. 😭 Then talking to Maekar, and Dunk and Egg ride off into the sunset together.

I hope that's convincing enough for the doubters! I can see a few points where something might be shifted from the end of one to the beginning of the other -- but on the whole I think the comic is an excellent roadmap for the show, and I hope this is the way they lay it out. Also ftr, the Sworn Sword graphic novel was also originally 6 issues so possibly season 2 ditto (unless they add an episode for the in between THK-TSS Dorne and Oldtown adventures that didn't actually appear in the novellas, idk). But the Mystery Knight was only released as one book, so who knows, they might go for more episodes when they get to that season.

Also, re taking inspiration from the comic, I really hope they adapt the Kingsguards' gold codpieces. Just because.

[agentrouka-blog]

How does ashford theory account for “I was going to marry her to Robert!”? There is no Arryn suitor, and Robert has been mentioned more than once as a possible match for Sansa. In my opinion, that’s one of the most avid holes in the theory.

The fourth pavilion was sewn together from diamond-shaped pieces of cloth, alternating red and white. Dunk did not know the colors, but Egg said they belonged to a knight from the Vale of Arryn named Ser Humfrey Hardyng. "He won a great melee at Maidenpool last year, ser, and overthrew Ser Donnel [Darklyn?] of Duskendale and the Lords Arryn and Royce in the lists."

I think out of the two Vale "suitors", GRRM picked the one whose role is far more significant. The betrothal to Sweetrobin is mentioned as an option but is never plot-relevant, unlike the others. (Joffrey, Willas, Tyrion, Harry - they all drive the plot forward as matches to Sansa.) Honestly, I think that GRRM mostly put it in for the "how would you like to marry your cousin" line. The betrothal serves no political purpose that benefits Lysa at that point in time and is dropped with no repercussions.

GRRM gives a small mention to Arryn and Royce (Waymar being emphasized as Sansa's past crush in AFFC) in Hardyng's backstory, which could be interpreted as a nod in that direction.

Far more significant than leaving out the Arryn suitor is the inclusion of the Hardyng suitor. Because, literally, the name appears in no. other. context. but at this tourney and being one of Sansa's suitors. It's what drives home the significance of the other names in the first place. That's what makes the black-clad, dark-haired Targaryen such an interesting addition in that circle. What is the "black prince with the white guardian" doing in that company?

It's too much to be a coincidence, so what's the point of niggling at the ultimately insignificant details? It's an easter egg of a hint. Not an air-tight legal argument meant to hold up in court.

[babybells123]

There is something so beautifully anvilicious about these quotes;

" I am a bastard too now, just like him. Oh, it would be so sweet, to see him once again. But of course that could never be. Alayne Stone had no brothers, baseborn or otherwise." (AFFC, Alayne II)

"The dream was sweet . . . but Winterfell would never be his to show. It belonged to his brother, the King in the North. He was a Snow, not a Stark. Bastard, oathbreaker, and turncloak . . ." (ASOS, Jon V)

Both Jon and Sansa are yearning for Winterfell and the feelings/memories/family associated -but both are intrinsically restricting themselves based off of their bastard status. The notion of Sansa being the only Stark (and character) to transition from a high-born noble lady to a baseborn bastard cannot be overlooked. (And then of course, the notion of Jon being the only Stark (and character) to transition from baseborn bastard to lord commander, cannot be overlooked.) Jon has risen to the top whilst Sansa has lowered to the bottom.

She (GRRM) makes the comparison to Jon herself, meaning that GRRM makes the comparison himself. this isn't something interpreted by fans - it is right there, explicitly within the text.

Sansa's desire to reunite with Jon is "sweet," it'd be almost like a dream come true. Jon's "dream was sweet" as well. But "Winterfell could never be his" and seeing her brother once again "of course, could never be" (possible).

And then later on in the text, Jon is offered the chance to become Jon Stark, and have Winterfell in name. Thus his decidedly unsubtle desire (that he dismisses as an entirely impossible dream) is fulfilled by Stannis' offer, even though he eventually rejects it in truth "Winterfell belongs to my sister Sansa."

There is also the quote that precedes Jon's "sweet dream," where he fantasises about a beautiful little romance with Ygritte; showing her a flower from the glass gardens, feasting her in the great hall, bathing in the hot pools, and loving beneath the heart tree. This dream is directly connected to Winterfell and is obviously sexually + romantically charged.

So whilst Jon's desire is partially fulfilled (even if he doesn't accept it) can we possibly assume that Sansa's simultaneously unsubtle "that could never be" may also be fulfilled? Since GRRM seems to really be beating us over the head with how 'that could never happen' from Sansa's internal monologue "no one will ever marry me for love" is reiterated multiple times (just you wait sweet one!) and Sansa desiring to reunite with her brother who she has modelled her bastardry after, who is supposedly the only brother left to her, is immediately dismissed by Sansa because she's accepted the fact that she'll never be with her family again, (and that she shall never encounter true love).

The connections only keep connecting!

So to summarise:

Jon & Sansa both have "sweet" dreams/desires that connect to Winterfell/family.

Jon's dream is sexually/romantically charged, involves a red-headed girl, and establishes Jon's suppressed desires as actually romantic.

Both Jon and Sansa are bastards in these contexts.

Both Jon and Sansa woefully dismiss these dreams/desires as impossible as "that could never be" and "it could never be his to show."

Jon's desire however is later offered on a silver platter by Stannis Baratheon, to which he mulls over and states that he "has always wanted it" (to be his). Though he later refuses Stannis' offer on the basis that "Winterfell belongs to Sansa" - twice over he says this.

Jon 'giving' Winterfell to Sansa is in direct contrast to Robb (Sansa's image of an honourably idealistic older brother) flat out rejecting Sansa's claim on the basis of her marriage to Tyrion.

Jon thus establishes himself as the only character who respects and protects Sansa's claim. Who does not abuse or exploit it. (Even though he was given the opportunity for it and it's been his innermost desire since childhood.)

In a way, this further conveys Jon as Sansa's unspoken, subconscious hero who is protecting her interests and instilling all those heroic ideals (such as the Janos Slynt situation) - though she does not realise it and has accepted that "there are no heroes" at all. But Jon is the true hero, hiding in plain sight.

So, whilst Sansa believes there are no heroes, Jon fulfils those ideals. Whilst Sansa believes no one will marry her for love, Jon exists as the embodiment of all the chivalric, romantic ideals that she's so desperately wanted.

Can we now assume that Sansa believing that she will essentially never see Jon again as entirely anvilicious as she will in fact see Jon again?

GEORGE I'M IN YOUR WALLS.

[atopvisenyashill]

The Girl In Grey And The Tourney

After narrowly escaping Lady Stoneheart with her life, Brienne follows a lead to the Vale, just in time for the tourney for the Brotherhood of Winged Knights. Before the tourney’s end, however, Ser Shadrich reveals the Lord Protector’s baseborn daughter Alayne Stone to be Sansa Stark and attempts to take her into custody to face justice for kingslaying.

But a True Knight steps forward and demands a trial by combat, saving Sansa from arrest. When the two finally catch a moment alone, Sansa asks Brienne to take her away from the Vale, and go to the only family Sansa has left alive in the North - Jon Snow.

[malleefies]

I have nothing to post for now so I'm going to share an asoiaf oc...because they're all I have on the brain rn. yep . im #ocpilled This is Rhea Florent and her brother Ser Jon Florent at a tourney. They're Dunk & Egg era ocs... and some extra sketches down below.

[catofoldstones]

my favourite thing to analyze right now is the parallel of sansa betrothing a prince who's a bastard and then maybe betrothing a bastard who's actually a prince, like if we're too retread the ashford theory its too brilliant of a parallel to not do it , its why i don't think the last targ is aegon because it would just be a remake of of joffrey's twist narrative

yup, yup. i agree w you, i just have to reread the books to get into the zone again. a rumour of twow releasing and i come running back…

[jonsaforeshadowing]

jonsa foreshadowing of the day: an old SanSan theory

[kellyvela]

Are we going to have Ashford Tourney in TKOSK? Considering there is Humphrey Hardyng and Leo Tyrell in cast.

Of course! That's the heart of the story!

[…] I knew I wanted to be in this book [Legends], so when he [Robert Silverberg] invited me to be in this book I gleefully accepted, and then I had to think, well, what am I gonna write for this book? I’m still in the middle of writing… I think I was still in the middle of writing Clash of Kings, I mean the only book out there was Game of Thrones. Well, am I gonna write a story about Tyrion or Arya or Jon Snow? No! I can’t do that. I have to save that for the book. I have to do this, I have to do a prequel. So I started thinking about my history and what would be a good area to write it, and I came up with the Dunk and Egg stuff. I was particularly attracted… that whole story [The Hedge Knight] is built around a tournament. I love medieval tournaments, reading about them, writing about them. There’s of course some of them in the main books, but this was an opportunity in a time of peace, not war, to look at a medieval tournament with all its pageantry and the jousting and the combat and reveal a little of Westerosi History.

—In conversation: George R.R. Martin with Dan Jones FULL EVENT- August 2019

[murd3rbug]

self indulgent info dump about the hedge knight

I did this in a couple of hours and used the Hedge Knight as my only source for everything. If you see any mistakes please kindly correct me! This is mainly for me because I can't stop thinking about the Hedge Knight and want to do a project related to it, so here's everything I think I would need for it.

(contents: a [long] summary of the hedge knight, every named character, all of the tourney matches, the trial by 7 teams and deaths)

SUMMARY:

Ser Arlan of Pennytree, a hedge knight (or wandering knight), dies of a chill. His squire, Dunk is the only one who can bury him, and Dunk buries him facing the sunset, as he reflects on Ser Arlan's life. Dunk mourns the old man, yet continues taking their horses Thunder, Chestnut, and Sweetfoot, as well as Ser Arlan's sword and remaining money. He stops by an inn where he is near attacked by a drunk man, and where a bald boy called Egg demands to be his squire, but Dunk refuses because he did not want to ruin the boy's life. Dunk goes to the grand tourney at Ashford, hoping to earn some money, and Egg follows him. Dunk takes Egg as his squire, because of Egg's willpower.

At Ashford Dunk sells his horse, Sweetfoot, so that he can afford armor. He meets the cousins Ser Steffon Fossoway and his squire, Raymun Fossoway. However, he is not able to enter the lists for the tourney since no one can prove his knighthood; that is until the Hand of the King and heir to the throne Baelor Breakspear, vouches for him, after recalling how Ser Arlan broke 4 lances against him. However Prince Baelor's brother, Prince Maekar is dismissive of Dunk and is worried for his two missing sons, Prince Daeron and Prince Aegon. Dunk enters but only for the 3rd day, so he will have a better chance at winning.

On the 1st day, many jousts happen. The final joust is when Prince Aerion "Brightflame" Targaryen, grandson of King Daeron, nephew of Prince Baelor, and son of Prince Maekar uses his lance to kill Ser Humfrey Hardyng's horse. It's dishonorable and Humfrey breaks his leg in the fall. Ser Humfrey is declared the champion. That night, Prince Aerion attacks the puppeteer (Tanselle "Too-Tall) that Dunk has a crush on, because her show involved a dragon (the crest of House Targaryen) getting killed. Egg calls Dunk, and Dunk beats up Prince Aerion. When Dunk gets seized by the guards, Egg reveals himself to be Prince Aerion's younger brother, Prince Aegon Targaryen.

Aerion wants to behead Dunk, and Maekar finds his son, Prince Daeron who was supposed to accompany Egg, and Prince Daeron says that a robber knight took him so his father would not be disappointed in him. Daeron withdraws his accusation and tells Dunk that he dreamed of Dunk with a dead dragon, and that Daeron's dreams come true. Dunk demands a trail by combat and Aerion demands a trail by seven. (Teams listed on the bottom of this post.)

Baelor Breakspear fought against the Kingsguard, since the Kingsguard are bound by their vows to never harm a member of the Royal Family. Aerion fought against Dunk, since Aerion was Dunk's main accuser. Daeron was unhorsed by Ser Robyn. Prince Baelor drove down one of the Kingsguard, and it is implied he also did so to another Kingsguard and his brother, Prince Maekar. Aerion unhorsed Dunk, however Dunk was able to beat Aerion using tactics he learned from Flea Bottom. Aerion withdrew his accusation.

Afterwards, Dunk is heavily injured and the two Humfreys are dead. After Prince Baelor's helmet was removed, his brains fell out and he died. When Dunk is healed he attends the funeral, and the new heir to the throne, Prince Valarr, Baelor's eldest son asks Dunk why his father died for a hedge knight. Prince Maekar revealed to Dunk he accidentally killed his brother, even though he loved his brother and expressed his sadness and regret. Maekar told Dunk he sent Aerion to Lys, and he offered Dunk a position in his household, but Dunk declined. Instead, Dunk asks to take Prince Aegon as his squire, and continue to live as a poor hedge knight, as long as he continued to use the nickname "Egg."

EVERY NAMED CHARACTER:

Dunk (Ser Duncan the Tall)

Thunder

Chestnut

Sweetfoot

Ser Arlan of Pennytree

Egg (Aegon V)

Prince Daeron Targaryen

Lord Caron of the Marches

Ser Lyonel Baratheon

House Dondarrion (Manfred Dondarrion)

Otho Bracken

Quentyn Blackwood (MENTIONED)

MENTIONED COMPETITORS: Denys Marbrand, Joseth Mallister, Clarence Cargyll, Desmond Darry, Benifer Blackwood, Robert Blackwood, Roland Blackwood, Roger Blackwood, Ormond Westerling, Swann, Matthew Mullendore, Abelar Hightower, Alador Florent, Jon Florent, Franklyn Frey, Penrose, Samwell Stokeworth, Lord (Unkown) Parren, Gunthor Estermont, Leo Tyrell, Samwyle Tarly

Humfrey Hardyng

Aegon III (Mentioned)

Steely Pate

Plummer (Steward)

Lord Ashford (has 2 sons and a daughter)

Prince Baelor "Breakspear" Targaryen

Prince Aerion "Brightflame" Targaryen

Prince Valarr "The Young Prince" Targaryen

Prince Matarys "The Younger Prince" Targaryen (Nicknamed by Lord Swann's fool)

Ser Roland Crakehall (Kingsguard)

Ser Donnel of Duskendale (Kingsguard)

Henly (Master of Horses)

Steffon Fossoway

Raymun Fossoway

Symeon Star-Eyes noble Serwyn of the Mirror Shield, Prince Aemon the Dragonknight, Ser Ryam Redywne, and Florian the Fool (all fabled heroes portrayed in Tanselle Too-Tall's puppet show)

Prince Aerys Targaryen (Mentioned)

Prince Rhaegal Targaryen (Mentioned)

Prince Maekar Targaryen

Lord Stokeworth (Mentioned, Ser Arlan overthrew him)

The Bastard of Harrenhal (Mentioned, Ser Arlan overthrew him)

The Grey Lion, Ser Damon Lannister (Mentioned, Ser Arlan overthrew him, challenged Leo Tyrell)

Lord Baratheon hosted a tourney to celebrate the birth of his grandson (Where Ser Arlan broke 4 lances with Baelor Breakspear)

Jonquil (Subject of a puppet show, Florian the Fool's lover)

Tanselle "Too-Tall"

Tybolt Lannister

Lyonel Baratheon (called "THE LAUGHING STORM")

King Daeron the Good (Mentioned)

Wate and Yorkel (Aerion's guards)

Ser Willem Wylde

TOURNEY MATCHES: (winners are underlined)

there are 5 champions, Lord Tyrell, Androw Ashford, Lord Tully, Prince Valarr, and Robert Ashford. challengers face off champions. it is 1v1, however several matches occur at the same time. it is a joust and abides by the usual rules: you use lances to try and unhorse your opponent, and after unhorsed you can either yield or continue on foot with weapons. the loser gives their equipment to the winner, and can only ransom it back at the end of the tourney, the champions will decided if lord ashford's daughter should keep the crown of love and beauty.

champion v challenger:

THE GRAY LION OF CASTERLY ROCK V LORD TYRELL

TYBOLT LANNISTER V LORD ASHFORD'S ELDEST SON (ANDROW ASHFORD)

LORD TULLY OF RIVERRUN V SER HUMFREY HARDYNG

SER ABELAR HIGHTOWER V PRINCE VALARR

LORD LYONEL"THE LAUGHING STORM"BARATHEON V THE YOUNGER ASHFORD SON (ROBERT ASHFORD)

MEANING: TYBOLT LANNISTER AND THE LAUGHING STORM BECOME CHAMPIONS, THE REST OF THE CHAMPIONS REMAIN

-

SER PEARSE CARON V LORD TYRELL

SER JOSETH MALLISTER V SER HUMFREY HARDYNG

SER GAWEN SWANN V PRINCE VALARR TARGARYEN

MEANING: ALL CHAMPIONS REMAIN

-

UNNAMED MATCHES IN 2s, 3s, AND 5s

THESE SPECIFIC THINGS WERE CALLED OUT:

SER HUMFREY HARDYNG V SER HUMFREY BEESBURY

"BATTLE OF THE HUMFREY"

SER TYBOLT LANNISTER V SER JON PENROSE

LEO TYRELL V ROBYN RHYSLING

HUMFREY HARDYNG "HUMBLED 14 KNIGHTS"

-

single match:

PRINCE AERION BRIGHTFLAME V HUMFREY HARDYNG

TRIAL:

Judges: Prince Maekar, Prince Baelor, Lord Ashford, Lord Tyrell

(not needed because of the trial by combat)

-

Trial of the Seven:

dunk's side: (TOURNEY LANCES)

Raymun Fossoway

Robyn Rhysling

Humfrey Beesbury (Slain by Ser Donnel of Duskendale)

Humfrey Hardyng (Died after the battle)

Lyonel Baratheon / The Laughing Storm

Ser Duncan the Tall

Baelor Targaryen (Accidentally killed by his brother Maekar's mace, died after the battle)

aerion's side: (WAR LANCES)

Steffon Fossoway

Daeron Targaryen

Ser Roland Crakehall (Kingsguard)

Ser Donnel of Duskendale (Kingsguard)

Ser Willem Wylde (Kingsguard)

Maekar Targaryen

Aerion Targaryen

[hollowwhisperings]

Blackfyre Conquest: An Autumn King

i've struggled to find any Meta on how Young Griff's conquest will go, politically & logistically, that don't immediately interrupt themselves with "...but then Dany will show up with Dragons".

A lot of fans are very pro-Targaryen and pro-Conquest: a lot of Westeros would probably be on board too, though for less romantic reasons. No one "loves" the commander of a foreign army & Ned successfully rallied a Rebellion with very good reasons. The Targaryens were never entirely welcome in Westeros but the War of the Five Kings certainly made a "return to stability" with a Targ King an easier sell than it would have been earlier in the series. That this Targ King is non-incestuous, seemingly sane, has a sizeable Army, has multiple houses already sworn to him... and seems to be an Actual Politician? The Lords might frown at exactly "how" legitimate their King really is but, overall, "Aegon VI" would be vastly preferable to who Westeros has currently:

1) an increasingly unpopular Queen-Regent whose family Did The Red Wedding & whose claim rests on a toddler-king of Dubious Parentage.

2) a King who's lost his Lands to the foreign invader, has a Pet Witch (called his "true" queen) who burns people alive, has converted to a Foreign Religion (& burned religious sites), is a rumoured Kinslayer, and was Never Very Popular in the first place (Stannis doesn't take bribes, keeps insisting his disabled daughter is his Heir, went to help the Night's Watch for Some Reason, wasn't as fun as his brothers, makes poor conversation at parties, etc) .

3) Euron Greyjoy.

4) a theoretical infant child of King Robb of the North & Trident... and the Treacherous Jeyne Westerling whom he Lost a war over.

5) Robb's legal heir as per his last Will, his "brother" Jon whom he legitimised as "Stark" but is currently busy being the 998th Lord Commander of the Night's Watch (it is unlikely that Jon's getting murdered by his men would be Advertised to the Realm & though Jon is almost certainly going to pull a Dany in WoW, he is currently a Ghost).

6) the allegedly sole surviving non-bastard Stark, Prince Rickon, who's spent the past few [books] entirely raised by [Freefolk] & is a toddler.

7) Some Targaryen Girl in Essos, last seen while... on fire & being abductes by her own dragon, apparently.

While most Lords will see Aegon's commanding the Golden Company as a Pretty Obvious allusion to his not actually being the miraculously surviving son of Prince Rhaegar Targaryen & Princess Elia Martell. The "truth" of Young Griff's identity is pretty irrelevant to his successfully conquering Westeros (which seems very likely, give or take a Kingdom). Robert Baratheon's kingship was won by conquest: his grandmother being a Targaryen princess was an afterthought, an extra touch of "legitimacy". Tommen's claim to the Iron Throne is through his legal status as King Robert's surviving Heir. Stannis's claim is through the illegitimacy of Joffrey & Tommen's claims making him Robert's heir instead.

Aegon's claim to the Iron Throne is not actually his alleged parentage: it's through Conquest (the same would be true for Dany, Euron and any Heir of King Robb). Most Lords would see the Golden Company, famously founded to make a Blackfyre king, and conclude that Aegon is a Blackfyre Pretender: this is, in the short-term, irrelevant.

Some might rejoice at the alleged survival of one of Prince Rhaegar or Princess Elia's children: Targaryen Loyalists, the Dornish, smallfolk out of the loop on why there was a Rebellion. Ned Stark Loyalists would know Ned mourned for Princess Elia & her children, that Robert became King because Ned wasn't interested & be more concerned about Winter than how recently incestuous the latest Southron King's family tree may be.

As far as most of Westeros is aware [going into Winds], its Key Requirements for a Monarch are: being Alive & (ideally) Sane, being Old Enough to reign unsupervised (15 at minimum), having a loyal Army (see: Euronpocalypse, the Red Wedding, the lawlessness of the Riverlands), being Male, not being the immediate product of incest (Tommen aside, Prince Rhaegar only had 2 great-grandparents), not being a blasphemous arsonist, & not being in debt to the Iron Bank.

Robb Loyalists, those still surviving, would Wisely stand back and allow the Golden Company to deal with the Bolton-Lannister-Frey alliance: even if Jeyne Westerling is found alive & with an infant son, few would accept her and most would be unwilling to replace one child monarch with another (that applies to Rickon too). Northerners are proud but, as one of those Dead Starks might say, Winter is Coming.

The Wars over the series have made the southern land route impassable: the Twins are held by the treacherous Freys, the Riverlands are a lawless hellscape, King's Landing is run by Lannisters & Tyrells, and the Reach is itself "Tyrell Territory". With such a dangerous land route, the North relies on itself & seatrade. While the North does have eastern ports that allow trade with the Vale, the Vale itself is currently held by Petyr Baelish, publically aligned with the Lannister Regime. The North's primary port, White Harbour (held by Lord Wyman Manderly, known Stark Loyalist) is on its western coast, along the Narrow Sea. Euron & rogue Ironborn aside, Aegon's Armies have already seized Storm's End after coming across said sea. Having already seized Storm's End and with Aurane Waters' having Absconded with the Crown's Fleet that would guard the Blackwater... The Golden Company can comfortably blockade all traffic from Westeros to Essos (give or take a Lys). Even assuming Aurane Waters isn't in cahoots with Team Aegon (he's a Velaryon bastard), he took the Crown's fleet to the Stepstones and thus holds control over naval passage between the eastern & western coasts of Westeros (& to Dorne).

So, unless Sansa usurps control of the Vale from Baelish within the first third of Winds; unless Prince Doran or seadragons take out Aurane Waters' pirate fleet; unless the Golden Company's AND Euron's respective fleets get taken out without ANOTHER navy taking their place... Westeros really, really needs Aegon to successfully conquer Westeros if only to quickly reestablish vital trade routes for Winter.

Speaking of Euron's fleet and Trouble at Oldtown... there is Trouble At Oldtown and no one is equipped to keep it contained: on land, the sons of Lord Hightower have been taking the Ironborn threat seriously (with Lord Hightower seemingly having Anticipated the supernatural threat Euron seeks to invoke though how successful his & his daughter's Efforts may be remains Unknown); at sea, the Redwyne Fleet is Worried & very probably in Cahoots with Aegon. It will be a Trip, going back to sea from the Stormlands & then South to Oldtown, but a Redwyne-Velaryon-Blackfyre Naval Alliance is the Best and Geographically Closest forces available to Oldtown.

There are a few characters who've been sent to seek aid from Essos, given the Ironborn threat & the general political instability: Prince Quentyn was one (RIP) and Lord Hightower's youngest son, Ser Humfrey, is another. If the Hightowers weren't Team Aegon before, they soon will be.

The Reach is an increasingly vital kingdom to the survival of Westeros: with the Riverlands in the state it is & with the ongoing socio-economic fallout of Dany's very sudden conquests of half the Free Cities, The Reach is the most reliable source of food for the entire continent. That's part of why the impending Euronpocalypse is so Worrying to those otherwise removed from the Oldtown plotlines: Oldtown is one of the most important ports of Westeros, exporting grain from the Reach & importing goods from Essos.

Oldtown is also the Headquarters for the Citadel, where maesters are trained to: manage rookeries, the interkingdom communication system; learn histories, including those of long Winters past & who survived to give tips on Resource Management; and study medicine (to varying degrees of competency but Still).

The maesters are imperfect, often outright incompetent (as much by accident as by any potential Conspiracy): they're still the ones in control of the [telegram] network, the meteorologists, the ones able to not only access the historic archives but how to read them & any knowledge therein. It is certainly more helpful to have scholars than to not have scholars, especially with Winter nearing and many surviving Lordlings having known only Summer (& never educated on "How To Lord" due to how far down the line of succession they were before the Wars).

For those in Westeros who hold to the Faith of the Seven, Trouble At Oldtown would be an apocalypse all of its own: Oldtown is the centre of their Faith and its destruction would greatly demoralize persons of all stations, especially with increased Magical Activity and rumours of [fire zombies, ice zombies, wolf zombies, dragons].

Team Aegon seems the most likely to "contain" the Euronpocalypse, having both method (naval power) & means (the Golden Company, 4 kingdoms' worth of vassal lords) to do so. Aegon's also one of the few "primary" characters who would even know that there IS a Euronpocalpse: Team Aegon, Prince Doran, Queen Cersei, Lady Olenna, Lord Manderly, Asha's faction of Ironborn, the Reacherlords, the Iron Bank, & (probably?) Brynden Rivers are the only ones who could plausibly know of a Euron Threat, let alone organize a Timely Response to it. Regardless of how successful said Response may be, Team Aegon helping with Oldtown smooths the way for his becoming recognised as a Legitimate Leader for Westeros.

I'm fairly certain that Team Aegon will conquer (most of) Westeros over the course of Winds, I doubt he'll have the time to be crowned King or even spend time on a throne: he'll be too busy.

Aegon's Conquest being successful is Pretty Dang Important to the greater scheme of things: it will introduce Key Characters to each other (Arianne & Dorne, Sam & thus the NW, "Alayne" through Baelish, Team Oathkeeper through Jaime's controlling the Crown's armies); restore supply routes; "consolidate" power to enable discussion of Continental Threats long neglected (through both Regional & Interpersonal Conflicts). Aegon's Conquest would act as a kind of "triage" for Westeros, a quick means of uniting different groups (for & against him) and he won't actually need to sit the Iron Throne to do it. It is most likely that, after securing the Reach & Stormlands, Aegon will find that the Frey Civil War had "taken care of" the North & the Riverlands, with Robb Loyalists willing to Play Nice but (understandably, thinketh Aegon) wary of bending any knees. Dorne, regardless of Prince Doran's personal opinion on Aegon's identity, would act "compliant" due to Arianne's involvement & the Rocky Dornish having been in Cahoots with the Blackfyre Regime from the get go. Even a false Aegon would be preferable to a Lannister, as far as the North & Dorne are concerned. The Ironborn post-Euronpocalypse would go back to battling themselves internally, likely while facing heavy [sanctions]: they'd be too busy licking their wounds to be much of a threat to anyone.

That leaves three kingdoms: the Westerlands, cornered at all sides & bereft of much of its Leadership through Wars & the Frey Civil War; the Crownlands, King's Landing likely being besieged for Cersei to later blow up; and The Vale.

Who runs the Vale? The worst, most consistently dangerous backstabber of them all: Lord Petyr Baelish. It will probably be Baelish who undoes all that triage work Team Aegon started, likely via assassinating the kid or "exposing" him to the Right Wrong Crowd (whether Petyr has actual knowledge or evidence against Aegon is irrelevant: this is not his first Smear Campaign).

Assuming it hasn't happened already (in great tonal dissonance with the Euronpocalypse), Little Lord Robert Arryn would get his Tourney at the Gates of the Moon just in time for Aegon to secure his "final" kingdom.

The Frey Civil War would have affected the Vale just as it affected the rest of Westeros (Dorne excluded) but, from the clues I've found in the Vale & Darry-branches of Freys, it's likely that the Vale Freys will have fared better than every other branch of their extensive family tree, likely due to their joining the Aegon Bandwagon prior to Lord Walder's death.

Others have drawn parallels between what we know of "Alayne's'" Tourney and the historic Tourney of Ashford Meadow: essentially, the Tourney is implicitly tied to the themes & character arcs of both Sansa Stark (in the role of "Lord Ashford's 13 year old daughter", defending Queen of Love & Beauty) and Brienne of Tarth (in the role of her ancestor, Duncan the Tall: knightly but never technically Knighted underdog). The Ashford Tourney is best remembered for being the Introduction of Ser Duncan the Tall, a Sudden Trial of Seven, a quietly averted Blackfyre Rebellion, and the tragic death of the greatly beloved Crown Prince Baelon "Breakspear" (& Some Guy from House Hardyng).

Yeah. Dany doesn't even need to leave Essos: Aegon's doom will come courtesy of Thematic Parallels and Foreshadowing.

Prince Baelon "Breakspear" was a living representation of a Westeros at peace: he was the product of one of two political marriages that peacibly joined Dorne to the Seven Kingdoms (the Second Marriage featured one of those Princesses Daenerys); he was a Competent ruler, becoming his Father's Hand at age 26; his nickname was gained when he bested Ser Daemon Blackfyre (yes, THAT Blackfyre) at a tourney (the Wedding Tourney of his Aunt Daenerys); he had two adult sons, presumably with a wife (the sons are the only proof of her existence); and one of Baelon's sons was healthy enough to score 7 victories at the Ashford Tourney!

Which he. Uh. Very unexpectedly died at. Baelon, that is. The Crown Prince. The People's Prince. The Golden Child who promised a Peaceful & Prosperous Future. The son of a Targaryen prince & a Martell mother. A character who Very Strongly Reminds One Of Young Griff, the hopeful Aegon VI.

Aegon is likely to attend the Vale Tourney in order to diplomatically add the Vale to his collection of Kingdoms: Baelish is likely to trade [Sansa]'s betrothal with Harry the Heir for the Shinier Prince Aegon (whether he dissolves the existing betrothal via Having Harry Killed By Tourney or by outing Alayne as Sansa "Key to the North" Stark-Lannister, who was, btw, Spared the marriage bed bc Child Bride so Totally Eligible my dude just Sign Here).

Then Brienne will show up, probably with Jaime, and Some Kerfuffle will Ensue (if only because Sansa & Brienne are Alleged Kingslayers) that leads to Robert Arryn's Tourney becoming Brienne's Trial of Seven for Sansa's Innocence, just as Ser Dunk's defense of the (common) maiden Tanselle so changed the Ashford Tourney.

There is a Rather Formidable enemy of Young Griff whom I have only hinted at: allow me to combine the Clues.

There exists in the ASOIAF series a Certain Character who Knows More than they Should, who has an implied past connection with a young Euron Greyjoy, who is infamously opposed to Blackfyres, who was present for the Ashford Tourney, whose Past & Present can connect just about every active plotline in the series: a disappeared Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, a Hand to two Targaryen Kings & the Master of Whispers to more (with his "thousand eyes and one"), one of the three Great Bastards born to Lady Melissa Blackwood by King Aegon IV, and current tree-wizard mentor to an entirely separate Kingly-coded character.

Brynden Rivers.

If Aegon survives Euron, Cersei, Jaime, AND Baelish? He certainly won't survive Brynden. Whatever Brynden may be right now (tree abomination, Old God Hivemind, puppet king to Feyfolk, Bran Stark's lunch, the distant Blackwood cousin of every surviving Stark), there is no reason to believe Brynden would allow a Blackfyre to go unchallenged, especially in the guise of a "true" Targaryen.

(not that i believe Brynden hopes for a Targaryen Restoration via Dany or Jon: it very much appears that Brynden & the Singers are grooming Bran Stark for kingship, though where & who exactly they expect him to rule is still Unclear)

I hope to do more exploration into what Aegon [Blackfyre]'s Conquest might look like, cobbling together clues from Quentyn's Doomed Quest and Queen Marge's Court (as "microcosm' to the Reach in macrocosm) and historically Targaryen/Blackfyre loyalist Houses. I'm fairly certain I can figure out how the Aegon Conquest will play into the resolutions of the Frey Civil War, (some) Winterfell Conspiracies, the specifics of the Euronpocalypse, & my "Dornish Spring" Theory as well. I'm much less certain on how Stannis would fare against Aegon: would he demand Legitimacy? would he sic Melissandre on him? would Stannis Get Over Himself in service to the Looming Winter? would he even have a leg to stand on the matter?

And would Aegon survive long enough to meet Daenerys, let alone Argue Legitimacy with her? (They'd both be rulers by conquest, not inheritance & it's not like Dany has any backing for her identity beyond "I look traditionally Valyrian" and "these are some dragons i hatched from stone mid-resurrection". The layyer it should be noted, is considered a Death Magic-induced Miracle, not some Secret Targaryen Blood Limit: it's Unique to Daenerys Stormborn, not to "House Targaryen")

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

how do you feel about j*nsas stealing and appropriating your theory Frankenstein style? I know I’d be pissed but on the other hand it’s funny because it’s still their strongest “argument” haha

It makes me laugh, honestly. Especially the way many shippers -- who have evidently never read The Hedge Knight -- place so much importance on the Ashford Tourney, the Ashford fair maid, and the Targaryen champion! Like, Lord's Ashford's daughter is so significant, she doesn't even have a name. And the whole thing with Valarr Targaryen was that he was a pretty awful jouster, and only held onto the position as the fair maid's champion out of nepotism, because nobody good actually challenged him. (Though his cousin Aerion threatened to, before deciding to bully someone else.)

And the most significant point, that Valarr didn't come out of nowhere, defeat all the other champions, and crown the girl queen of love and beauty -- lol, not in the slightest, he was a champion from the start, and the way the tourney was set up was that at the end of the third day, whoever were the final five champions would either choose to keep Ashford's daughter as the QOLAB or select somebody else to be. And either way, that never happened, since during the first night Dunk and Aerion had their altercation, Dunk never saw who any of the champions were on the second day because he was in prison, and the third day the fair maid/champion tourney was canceled and they held his Trial of Seven instead. There was no queen of love and beauty at the end of the story!

Like, this tourney does not compare in significance to, say, the Tourney of Harrenhal. Historically, the fair maid means nothing, the Ashford Tourney is only remembered for the Trial of Seven that ended with Baelor's death. And I only happened to think it was a bit of a funny coincidence that four of the first day's champions matched Sansa's suitors (that's how you know it was taken from me despite claims of independent creation, it was known as "the Fifth Suitor theory") and thought it might be an even more funny coincidence if Aegon ended up pursuing Sansa as a bride after (or in the process of) claiming the throne, which was a common bit of speculation in 2012 after Aegon was revealed to be alive (presumably) in 2011's ADWD. And the whole point I had was how futile said champions were in the face of Dunk's actions, and well, *cough*.

But it was always just a crack theory, a silly coincidence. That they've imbued it with such significance, well, um. Good for them I guess. It's certainly less worse than pointing to Sansa Stark daughter of Rickon and her half-uncle Jonnel -- when most likely that was a forced marriage to steal an inheritance like the uncles of Alys Karstark attempted with her, and Jonnel had no children with either Sansa or his second wife, died, and two successive brothers became Lord of Winterfell before the youngest had any children to succeed him. That is not a historical model you want to follow, I'm sorry.

BTW, this post of mine also getting appropriated by jonsas also makes me laugh (2 for 2 lol my god), because the point of that parallel was that Jon is indeed a hero from the songs -- since again, in 2011 immediately post-ADWD there was a fandom reaction pushing Aegon up as the actual PTWP and such. (Well. The ones who didn't decide Victarion was Azor Ahai lol sigh.) And that Sansa's words were the foreshadowing ones, I thought was significant, again in response to fandom decreeing her unimportant. It was not to make Jon specifically Sansa's hero or lover or anything where is that implied I have no idea oh shippers oh fandom sigh sigh sigh 😂😅

[alicent-boleyn]

Me, making an extended family tree for Berenice: everything is fine - Until I discover the Birthday Girl (for whom the Ashford Tourney was thrown!) doesn't even have a canon name

It's her birthday!! and we don't even know her name! :_(

[agentrouka-blog]

I bet if Ary@ or D@ny has similar suitors like Sansa, they will quickly connect it with Ashford Theory. But since it's Sansa so they will try to nitpick every details.

(post referenced)

Hypothetical Ashford tourney champions of the first day:

Ser Droger "Longbraid", copper-skinned black-haired hedgeknight, personal device: a black stallion

Ser Jory Mormont

Ser Darion Flowers, second bastard son of a second son of House Cockshaw

Ser Grifford Connington

Valarr Targaryen, the black prince.

No one: Well they left out Viserys who wanted to marry her so it means nothing.

[g0lightly]

Virgin “Sansa is going to end up with Aegon VI/Jon bc a Targaryen won the Ashford Tourney but she’ll be rescued by Sandor Clegane who is like Dunk bc he’s not a knight and he’s tall” theory

vs

Chad “Sansa will end up with Brienne, who is hinted to descend from Dunk *and* the Targaryens, instead of a traditional marriage because Dunk’s moral impulse to protect Tanselle disrupted the tourney from concluding as planned” theory

Bonus points for the fact that one of the three Targaryen princes involved dies and so does the House Hardyng jouster. Everyone expects Sansa to end up with a man but she and Brienne are so perfect for each other that it makes for the kind of well-supported twist that i actually think might happen.

(To be clear i really like this theory this is just my interpretation of it!)

[atopvisenyashill]

Asking this because I (for some reason) have yet to see a theory stating this (even though it must exist!) but waht do you think the changes are of Brienne being the person who gets Alaynes favor and her potentially competing on Sansa's behalf in a trial for the kinslaying allegations? Obviously Brienne and Sansa even meeting is hotly debated but with the direction the show went in I can't see Briensa (platonic) not happening!

First I'm assuming you meant kingslaying because I was like wait how did I forget Sansa being accused of killing one of her siblings omg?? alsdjf unless you mean "kinslaying allegations" ie she betrayed Ned in which case, if that does come up (it's certainly possible) it's not likely to come up until waaaay later because the only person who would care is like, Arya, really, (I think both Jon and Bran would understand Sansa's actions here) and I don't think it will escalate to Brienne having to fight a trial by combat for her in that case.

BUT.

THAT'S AN INTERESTING THEORY. I think the general consensus here is that they're going to meet somehow at the tourney and escape it together, and also, Shadrich will be involved and probably Bronze Yohn as well, but that's pretty much as concrete as I've seen anyone get (altho if anyone does have a more concrete theory, let me know!!!).

So firstly, I think this would match up with the Ashford Tourney Theory very well -> Sansa having all the same suitors, only for the tourney to get upended by a trial by the seven/the appearance of The Truest Knight In All Of Westeros. Brienne, being both a True Knight and a descendant of Dunk, makes the most sense for being part of the foreshadowing of this theory in my opinion. And that little note we got of GRRM's outline included that line "kill the mouse" which points to Shadrich being a problem for Sansa or Brienne or both in the coming twow chapters. However...some random hedge knight can't just make off with either Sansa Stark, Last Surviving Stark or Alayne Stone, Only Child Of Lord Protector Baelish, without causing a HUGE ruckus (look at her escape from KL - they needed a huge ruckus to cover up their movements!). SO. Considering he showed up with a bunch of other guys...maybe Shadrich and several others looking for Sansa accuse of her being a kingslayer and say they are arresting her and taking her back to King's Landing to face the king's justice. And just like Tyrion got free by having Bronn defeat someone, perhaps Brienne, who enters in the lists in the hopes of getting close to Sansa as a mystery knight, steps up to call for a trial by the seven. That would be a parallel to Dunk as well!

And in the chaotic aftermath, when Brienne (and Bronze Yohn maybe!!) has cleared Sansa's name, something goes awry (maybe Harry dies fighting in the trial, maybe Sweetrobin dies and Sansa tells Brienne she doesn't want to marry Harry), the girls decide to make a run for the Wall, to the only other known relative Sansa has left alive outside of the Tullys - her recently revived bastard brother Jon Snow.

As for gaining her favor...while I'm fairly confident that Brienne saves Sansa and they leave together from the Vale, the state in which Brienne shows up is really up in the air. She's just leaving from whatever the fuck has happened with Lady Stoneheart and Jaime. Maybe she's injured. Maybe she has no money. Maybe she sees Ser Shadrich there and decides she's better off disguised. It could make sense that she enters the tourney in an attempt to see if she can find Sansa in the crowd, spots her, and asks her for her favor. Cue Shadrich accusal, trial by seven, and escape.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm. Interesting prediction anon, I'd love to hear what other people think.