#republic day 2020

[rabbitcruiser]

Republic Day (German: Tag der Republik) was an official holiday in East Germany, celebrated annually on 7 October from 1949 to 1989. Republic Day commemorates the anniversary of the establishment of the German Democratic Republic (DDR) on 7 October 1949.

[newsreleted]

TikTok set to be banned in the US after losing appeal

See More.....

[czgif]

Ben Cristovao in Ben Cristovao feat. Sara James: Brighter Day 2023, MV, dir. Nikolas Sand IMDB - YT

[batboyblog]

Things Biden and the Democrats did, this week #14

April 12-19 2024

The Department of Commerce announced a deal with Samsung to help bring advanced semiconductor manufacturing and research and development to Texas. The deal will bring 45 billion dollars of investment to Texas to help build a research center in Taylor Texas and expand Samsung's Austin, Texas, semiconductor facility. The Biden Administration estimates this will create 21,000 new jobs. Since 1990 America has fallen from making nearly 40% of the world's semiconductor to just over 10% in 2020.

The Department of Energy announced it granted New York State $158 million to help support people making their homes more energy efficient. This is the first payment out of a $8.8 billion dollar program with 11 other states having already applied. The program will rebate Americans for improvements on their homes to lower energy usage. Americans could get as much as $8,000 off for installing a heat pump, as well as for improvements in insulation, wiring, and electrical panel. The program is expected to help save Americans $1 billion in electoral costs, and help create 50,000 new jobs.

The Department of Education began the formal process to make President Biden's new Student Loan Debt relief plan a reality. The Department published the first set of draft rules for the program. The rules will face 30 days of public comment before a second draft can be released. The Administration hopes the process can be finished by the Fall to bring debt relief to 30 million Americans, and totally eliminate the debt of 4 million former students. The Administration has already wiped out the debt of 4.3 million borrowers so far.

The Department of Agriculture announced a $1 billion dollar collaboration with USAID to buy American grown foods combat global hunger. Most of the money will go to traditional shelf stable goods distributed by USAID, like wheat, rice, sorghum, lentils, chickpeas, dry peas, vegetable oil, cornmeal, navy beans, pinto beans and kidney beans, while $50 million will go to a pilot program to see if USAID can expand what it normally gives to new products. The food aid will help feed people in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Yemen.

The Department of the Interior announced it's expanding four national wildlife refuges to protect 1.13 million wildlife habitat. The refuges are in New Mexico, North Carolina, and two in Texas. The Department also signed an order protecting parts of the Placitas area. The land is considered sacred by the Pueblos peoples of the area who have long lobbied for his protection. Security Deb Haaland the first Native American to serve as Interior Secretary and a Pueblo herself signed the order in her native New Mexico.

The Department of Labor announced new work place safety regulations about the safe amount of silica dust mine workers can be exposed to. The dust is known to cause scaring in the lungs often called black lung. It's estimated that the new regulations will save over 1,000 lives a year. The United Mine Workers have long fought for these changes and applauded the Biden Administration's actions.

The Biden Administration announced its progress in closing the racial wealth gap in America. Under President Biden the level of Black Unemployment is the lowest its ever been since it started being tracked in the 1970s, and the gap between white and black unemployment is the smallest its ever been as well. Black wealth is up 60% over where it was in 2019. The share of black owned businesses doubled between 2019 and 2022. New black businesses are being created at the fastest rate in 30 years. The Administration in 2021 Interagency Task Force to combat unfair house appraisals. Black homeowners regularly have their homes undervalued compared to whites who own comparable property. Since the Taskforce started the likelihood of such a gap has dropped by 40% and even disappeared in some states. 2023 represented a record breaking $76.2 billion in federal contracts going to small business owned by members of minority communities. This was 12% of federal contracts and the President aims to make it 15% for 2025.

The EPA announced (just now as I write this) that it plans to add PFAS, known as forever chemicals, to the Superfund law. This would require manufacturers to pay to clean up two PFAS, perfluorooctanoic acid and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid. This move to force manufacturers to cover the costs of PFAS clean up comes after last week's new rule on drinking water which will remove PFAS from the nation's drinking water.

Bonus:

President Biden met a Senior named Bob in Pennsylvania who is personally benefiting from The President's capping the price of insulin for Seniors at $35, and Biden let Bob know about a cap on prosecution drug payments for seniors that will cut Bob's drug bills by more than half.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Stephen Robinson at Public Notice:

A near-majority of American voters willingly reelected Donald Trump. This harsh reality is a collective moral failure, but it’s also not a choice made in sound mind. Consider that voters believed Trump’s first presidency was a roaring success and Joe Biden’s only term a Carter-level catastrophe. It’s an upside-down Bizarro World view that ultimately played a key role in dooming Kamala Harris.

Trump’s 2024 platform was rooted in an obvious lie — that the nation under Biden’s leadership is a flaming dumpster fire and everyone was much better off when Trump was president. Democrats challenged this false reality with facts, but they ultimately lost the messaging war. Their best efforts were no match for the most powerful weapons in Trump’s propaganda arsenal — a timid press and a right-coded social social media environment. Greg Sargent reports in the New Republic that the Harris campaign’s own internal polling revealed an alarming trend: “Undecided voters didn’t believe that some of the highest profile things that happened during Trump’s presidency — even if they saw these things negatively — were his fault.” According to exit polls, Trump decisively won the questions “who do you trust more to handle the economy?” and “who do you trust most to handle a crisis?” Of course, in reality Trump utterly botched the 2020 pandemic response, which researchers concluded resulted in 40 percent more deaths than necessary. And yet swing voters are willing to risk it all again in hopes of cheaper eggs and cruelty against outgroups.

Disinformation on demand

Legacy media shoulders significant blame for their “sanewashing” of Trump’s incoherency and deteriorating mental state. Voters believed Trump could fix a steadily improving economy despite his promotion of inflationary tariffs. The media even presented Trump’s rants as cogent discussions of economic theory.

It’s worth noting, however, that an NBC poll from April revealed that voters who received news primarily from legacy media (newspapers, cable news, etc.) still overwhelmingly supported Biden. Trump owes his victory in great part to low-propensity voters of all races, including young men, and those voters don’t necessarily form their views based on mainstream media reporting. Rather, far too many are stuck in an online social media bubble where they are delivered a steady diet of rightwing propaganda. The median age of a Fox News viewer is 68, and liberals have joked about the network “brainwashing” their conservative parents. But rightwing social media content has effectively targeted and radicalized younger people, who — unlike the typical Hannity-obsessed grandpa — can vote for the next several decades. TikTok, which Trump joined in June, has 170 million users in the United States, and according a Pew Research survey, more than half of them said they regularly get their news from the platform. That’s up from just 22 percent in 2020. This is a serious concern because the far right uses TikTok to advance unfounded conspiracy theories and outright lies.

[...]

Lower income Americans, particularly young people, do spend more of their income on groceries, rent, and gas. That’s why Republicans were so laser focused on the price of eggs. Unfortunately, there’s a dearth of liberal content countering the negative vibes. Of course, explaining the post-pandemic economic recovery is complex and requires more than a punchy one-minute video can convey. Although people might idly scroll TikTok all day, consuming 60-second quick hit videos like potato chips, they will balk at reading an extensive, well-reported news article. That’s too filling a meal.

According to a University of Oregon study, 40 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans surveyed said they’d become more conservative from their TikTok usage. Half of the Democrats surveyed said they’d grown more liberal, but a lot of far-left content on TikTok is downright alienating and can sound like MAGA’s idea of a strawman leftist. For instance, one user boasted that she “didn’t care” if liberal economic and social policies “hurt the economy,” thus conceding that those policies are in fact harmful to economic progress. TikTok’s artificial “vibecession” dominated the discourse, while abortion-related content was actively suppressed even while pregnant women were bleeding out in parking lots. Users of the platform resorted to disguising the word “abortion” as “aborshun” or “ab0rti0n” in order to reach an audience. TikTok has a longstanding policy against promoting abortion services, which it classifies as “unsuitable businesses, products or services.” However, TikTok, YouTube, and Meta have allowed users to spread and monetize anti-abortion misinformation. Studies have shown an interesting gender gap in where young people receive their news on social media: For most women, it’s TikTok, while most men learn about the world from YouTube, X, and Reddit, all of which have become havens of crude masculinity.

On YouTube, 56 percent of users are between the ages of 18 and 44. The Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a London-based nonprofit that researches extremism, conducted a four-part research project this year that determined YouTube’s algorithm consistently steers users to rightwing and Christian content. The algorithm does this even with seemingly apolitical search terms, like “male lifestyle guru,” which YouTube reflexively associates with conservative ideology. Rightwing news content was also more frequently recommended, including anti-vaxxer videos. As far back as 2019, both YouTube and Facebook’s autofill search boxes would return content that promoted anti-vaccine misinformation.

[...]

Why rightwing content has the edge

When Kamala Harris appeared on the Call Her Daddy podcast, host Alexandra Cooper told her listeners, “I do not usually discuss politics or have politicians on the show because I want Call Her Daddy to be a place that everyone feels comfortable tuning in.” Left-leaning podcasters/social media content creators often avoid politics for fear of turning off their right-leaning fans. Joe Rogan and Dave Portnoy at Barstool Sports don’t bother with such apologies when they have rightwing guests because it doesn’t compromise their brand. They are rightwing cultural influencers. Liberal podcaster Hasan Piker recently commented on the impact rightwing influencers have on young men of all races.

“There is a massive amount of rightwing radicalization that has been occurring, especially in younger male spaces. Everything is completely dominated by rightwing politics,” he said. “If you’re a dude under the age of 30 and you have any hobbies whatsoever, whether it’s playing video games, whether it’s working out, whether it’s listening to a history podcast or whatever, every single facet of that is completely dominated by center right to [the] Trumpian right. Everything they see is rightwing sentiment.”

Rogan and Portnoy might not present as overtly political as Walsh and Shapiro, but their edgy, hyper masculine personas are pure MAGA. Even billionaire CEO Elon Musk likes to present himself as a “disrupter,” an agent of change who boldly confronts the status quo. Anyone who’s seen the more popular indie films of the 1970s would realize how compelling this narrative is to young men. The subtle way that Rogan and Portnoy infuse politics into their personas presents a contrast with left-leaning social media content. The liberal TikToker or YouTuber who releases videos about home makeovers might endorse Democratic politicians during election season while wearing their “just voted” sticker, but rightwing influencers prime their audience on a daily basis. Young men marinate in a stew of rightwing sentiment and end up resenting the libs.

Stephen Robinson wrote in Public Notice a very valid case that a right-coded media environment gave Donald Trump the decisive boost to get elected, such as praising the disastrous Trump reign as a “success.”

Social media algorithms heavily favored right-coded and pro-Trump content, despite the never-ending whining about “censorship” from conservatives.

[gffa]

THE HIGH REPUBLIC CHECKLIST: If you want to consume these in order, I really like Youtini's High Republic Reading Order list for being extremely comprehensive and solidly updated for Phase III+ or the more middle-ground comprehensive High Republic guide from starwars.com or Wookieepedia generally does a good job putting things in individual release order. This post is just a checklist of what's available and not quite a reflection of read order. (Which I generally suggest following release order, not chronological order, given that you're often meant to know/not know certain things.) Possibly missing a short story here or there, but assume the novels are in read order for each given phase and that it's a useful list for remembering what you have/haven't read yet!

MAIN STORYLINE NOVELS - PHASE I:

The High Republic: Light of the Jedi

The High Republic: A Test of Courage

The High Republic: Into the Dark

The High Republic: The Rising Storm

The High Republic: Race To Crashpoint Tower

The High Republic: Out Of The Shadows

The High Republic: Mission to Disaster

The High Republic: The Fallen Star

The High Republic: Midnight Horizon

MAIN STORYLINE NOVELS - PHASE II:

The High Republic: Path of Deceit

The High Republic: Convergence

The High Republic: Quest for the Hidden City

The High Republic: Cataclysm

The High Republic: Quest for Planet X

The High Republic: Path of Vengeance

MAIN STORYLINE NOVELS - PHASE III:

The High Republic: The Eye of Darkness

The High Republic: Escape From Valo [UPCOMING]

The High Republic: Defy The Storm [UPCOMING]

The High Republic: Temptation of the Force [UPCOMING]

The High Republic: Beware the Nameless [UPCOMING]

The High Republic: Tears of the Nameless [UPCOMING]

The High Republic: Trials of the Jedi [UPCOMING]

The High Republic: A Valiant Vow [UPCOMING]

The High Republic: Into the Light [UPCOMING]

MAIN STORYLINE COMICS - PHASE I:

The High Republic (2021) - 15 issues

The High Republic Adventures (2021) - 13 issues

The High Republic: The Monster of Temple Peak - 4 issues

The High Republic: The Edge Of Balance - 2 manga volumes

The High Republic: Trail of Shadows - 5 issues

The High Republic: Eye of the Storm - 2 issues

MAIN STORYLINE COMICS - PHASE II:

The High Republic: The Blade - 4 issues

The High Republic (2022) - 10 issues

The High Republic Adventures (2021) - 8 issues

The High Republic: Edge of Balance: Precedent - 1 manga volume

The High Republic Adventures: The Nameless Terror - 4 issues

MAIN STORYLINE COMICS - PHASE III:

The High Republic: Shadows of Starlight - 4 issues

The High Republic (2023) - 2 issues [ONGOING]

The High Republic (2022) - 1 issue [ONGOING]

The High Republic Adventures – Saber for Hire 4 issues [UPCOMING]

MAIN STORYLINE AUDIODRAMAS - PHASE I:

The High Republic: Tempest Runner

MAIN STORYLINE AUDIODRAMAS - PHASE I:

The High Republic: The Battle of Jedha

ONESHOT COMIC ISSUES - PHASE I:

Star Wars Adventures (2020) #6 - "The Gaze Electric"

The High Republic Adventures: Free Comic Book Day 2021

The High Republic Adventures Annual 2021

The High Republic Adventures: Galactic Bake-Off Spectacular

Star Wars Adventures (2020) #14 - "A Very Nihil Interlude"

The High Republic Adventures: Free Comic Book Day 2023

ONESHOT COMIC ISSUES - PHASE II:

The High Republic Adventures: Quest of the Jedi

ONESHOT COMIC ISSUES - PHASE III:

The High Republic Adventures: Crash Landing [UPCOMING]

ANTHOLOGY NOVELS - PHASE I:

Star Wars: The High Republic: Starlight - Anthology of Insider short stories. [Includes "Go Together", "First Duty", "Hidden Danger", "Past Mistakes", and "Shadows Remain"]

ANTHOLOGY NOVELS - PHASE II:

Star Wars Insider: The High Republic: Tales of Enlightenment - Anthology of Insider short stories. [Includes "New Prospects", "A Different Perspective", "The Unusual Suspect", "No Such Thing as a Bad Customer", "Last Orders", "Missing Pieces", and author interviews.]

ANTHOLOGY NOVELS - ALL PHASES:

The High Republic: Tales of Light and Life [Includes "The Queen's Bloom", "A Closed Fist Has No Claws", "Shield of the Jedi", "The Lonely Traveler is Home", "After the Fall", "The Force Provides", "All Jedi Walk Their Own Path", "Light in the Darkness", "The Call of Coruscant", and "Rogue Element"]

[tremendouskoalachild]

anybody remember the lucasfilm panel at disney inverstor day 2020? how they announced more shows than anyone knew what to do with, and everyone was speculating which ones would even end up being made? i member

Rangers of the New Republic - didn't get made

Ahsoka - getting a second season

Andor - getting a second and final season

Obi-Wan Kenobi (technically announced earlier at D23) - didn't get renewed

The Bad Batch (animation) - 3 seasons

Visions (animation) - 2 seasons

Lando - hasn't gotten made, creator left the project, might become a movie instead

The Acolyte - didn't get renewed

A Droid Story (animation) - didn't get made

Willow - not only didn't get renewed, was entirely erased from disney+

The Book of Boba Fett was announced indirectly, only as a "next chapter" for the mandoverse, because they wanted to hold off for the announcement at the end of The Mandalorian season 2, airing at the time. that show also didn't get renewed.

(while we're here. movie releases announced at the same panel:

Indiana Jones 5

Children of Blood and Bone - didn't get made, lucasfilm got rid of its rights to the property

Taika Waititi movie - didn't get made (yet?)

Rogue Squadron - didn't get made)

that's around 6 abandoned projects and 4 shows cancelled after their first season. 2 live action shows got a renewal, outside of The Mandalorian, which was an established show, and still got just one more season after this. 2 animated shows got renewed, one of which wasn't even made by lucasfilm. great job everyone

[holdingforexo]

holding for sehun: day 346 of 639 ↳ EXO SEHUN for Nature Republic’s 12 Shades of Light | January 2020

[saintvainglorious]

TEMERAIRE FIC RECS

I read no fic at all in May, as I was too busy devouring all nine Temeraire novels in a single month - and then spent a very happy June reading a fairly absurd amount of Temeraire fics. In honor of a Pride month well spent, here's a fic rec list!

(Divided up into categories - Laurence/Tharkay, Laurence/Napoleon, other ships, and gen)

WILLIAM LAURENCE/TENZING THARKAY

ley lines by malfaisant/@stanleyraymondkowalski (T, 14k, 2015) Amnesia era!Laurence sees Tharkay and it doesn't cure his amnesia; a renewed friendship tinged with loss follows

Tharkay makes it to Peking intact with the news of Napoleon’s imminent invasion of Russia. Which would be all well and good, except that Laurence isn’t very intact himself.

which is like everything by sere (This_is_Sere) (G, 3k, 2024) Post-canon Laurence accidentally breaks Tharkay's heart a little, and put it back together in the sweetest way possible

A chance remark from Granby provokes an excess of feeling in Tharkay.

The Reward of Service by yunitsa/@pamphilia (T, 4k, 2016) A lovely post-canon get-together fic, where Granby puts his foot in it a little and realizations are had

‘It is no good asking me,’ Laurence said at last, pushing the pattern-book away over breakfast, ‘I am not the one–’ Not the one who would be living with the result, he had been about to say. But they had hardly accepted Tharkay’s invitation as casual houseguests.

A Soft Dawn by corvile (G, 2k, 2015) A soft and sweet Tongues of Serpents-era fic, featuring accidental spooning, self-introspection, and maybe the most romantic hand-holding known to man

Upon thinking on this feeling of jealousy, Tharkay has done some rather clever intuitive leaps involving situations both real and imagined, and he's come to a rather curious conclusion: he's a little in love with William Laurence.

all flowers in time by lastwingedthing (E, 7k, 2017) A splendid post-canon get-together where it's Laurence who pines after an oblivious Tharkay, rather than the other way around. Also, sex!

The consolations of possession.

Ship's Gossip by Spatz/@cactusspatz (M, 6k, 2019) AU where Laurence takes up Tharkay's offer to become a privateer and Tharkay joins Laurence on the ship; Laurence learns some things about Tharkay, and then about himself

Laurence is beginning to enjoy life as a privateer - though he cannot figure out why Tharkay should still be sailing out with them - when Temeraire decides to ask him about sodomy.

WILLIAM LAURENCE/NAPOLEON BONAPARTE

Dearest William by WerewolvesAreReal/@werewolves-are-real (T, 23k, 2016) Laurence and Napoleon are pen pals! Riotously funny, until it's heartbreaking

Napoleon sends a letter to the upstart sea-captain who stole his dragon, Laurence sends one back, and a correspondence begins under the uneasy eye of the admiralty. When Laurence had admitted the matter to Granby his lieutenant exclaimed, “God, does Boney want you drawn and quartered as a traitor?” which seems perfectly possible.

i sing of arms and the man by Jack_R (M, 21k, 2020) Ancient Rome AU (and really good dragon-related worldbuilding)! Laurence longs for the days of the Roman Republic, but Rome's new emperor is rather adept at persuasion

‘You think me a far worthier man than I am,’ he says, then. ‘No,’ Napoleone says, softly, ‘I don’t think I do at all.’

L'envoyé céleste triomphant de la Maladie. Antoine-Jean Gros (1813) by VerdetCadet/@verdet-cadet (G, 3k, 2023) A League of Dragons captured-by-Napoleon fic involving a rather appalling painting and Tharkay and Granby being the world's funniest wingmen (ha)

"Given what he has done with the barest civility on my part, I cannot think what he would do with the least encouragement." “Oh, no?” said Granby innocently, a sentiment that provoked a raised eyebrow from Tharkay over his glass, and in Laurence, a strangeness in the pit of his stomach. Or: Napoleon is an enthusiastic patron of the arts. Laurence's best friends lovingly suss out his willingness to bone Napoleon for political gain and strategic expediency.

Ordinance of Fate by by WerewolvesAreReal/@werewolves-are-real (T, 13k (WIP), 2022) *slamming hand on table rythmically* soulmate AU soulmate AU soulmate AU soulmate AU

The name comes when he is 15, and Laurence hides it immediately. Then at the age of 22 Laurence reads a letter from an old shipmate who writes that “the troops in Italy were routed by some new General of theirs, Napoleon Bonaparte-"

Doctrine on Worship by Kangoo/@youngster-monster (G, 6k, 2021) AU where Laurence becomes a priest instead of joining the Navy, and meets Temeraire anyway - but Temeraire's captain takes an interest in his dragon's new friend

“You do not strike me as a man well versed in selfishness. Perhaps you ought to try it; you might find it easier to understand my presence then." In which Laurence made a different choice, a long time ago, which changes very little in the long run.

OTHER SHIPS

Tender Like a Bruise by VerdetCadet/@verdet-cadet (T, 5k, 2024) Granby/Little - Granby struggles with the shame and trauma of losing his arm; Augustine Little is there for him

It is not a good time to be short an arm, if there ever was such a thing. Granby has always prided himself on his competence and his easy good cheer. Now, at a stroke, he finds himself lacking in both.

revelry by WerewolvesAreReal/@werewolves-are-real (E, 2k, 2018) Tharkay/Laurence/Granby/Little - Post-canon Tharkay & Laurence invite Granby & Little over to visit, delightful and unabashedly voyueristic sexytimes ensue

Little suddenly turns away and throws himself down on the couch where Laurence previously sat, drunkenness making him stumble a little. He leans heavily against Tharkay, who doesn't mind, and tosses Granby a jaunty salute. “Now you must kiss him, John. I know how long you have wanted to; you will always regret it if you do not."

What comfort I can by VerdetCadet/@verdet-cadet (M, 5k, 2023) Laurence/Granby - Amnesiac!Laurence has suspicions about the nature of his relationship with Granby. Second in a two-part series, part one is also splendid! I just have a fatal weakness for the amnesia era ok

The truth of Laurence's treason comes out while Laurence is still aboard the Potentate. Laurence's half formed memories are just there enough for dangerous conjecture. Granby is there to offer what comfort he can.

That Dare Not Speak Its Name by WerewolvesAreReal/@werewolves-are-real (E, 11k (WIP), 2024) Laurence/Granby - Laurence covers for Little and Granby and discoveries are made. The dialogue and introspection are so very delicious I'm SO INVESTED AUGH

After an incriminating letter is discovered, Granby is caught out as an invert – and everyone knows his lover is another captain. Since the companion of a common Yellow Reaper would not be spared the noose, Laurence declares that it's him. Over time, he starts to wish it really were.

Uncharted by novembersmith/@novembersmith (E, 5k, 2009) Laurence/Granby/Tharkay - Laurence and Granby are together and Tharkay is mortified, until he's given quite good reason not to be

Tharkay had had the dubious pleasure of watching Laurence and Granby being blissfully in love for several weeks now.

Foibles by VerdetCadet/@verdet-cadet (M, 3k, 2023) Laurence/Tharkay and Laurence/Napoleon, sort of - Tharkay likes roleplaying and Laurence is not displeased by the role Tharkay takes on this time

Tharkay, faced with an inconvenience he was forced to endure or a problem his mind could not set aside, found his ease by simply Not Being Tharkay for a time.

An Alchemy of Character by PepperHoney (G, 7k, 2023) Tharkay/Granby - Tharkay and Granby compete for Laurence's affections, until they find a more fulfilling use of their time

Granby and Tharkay have been watching each other court Laurence to no avail for years now. It's something of a game between them, truly, one whose success they don't really believe in anymore. It takes a long journey aboard the Allegiance for them to realise--perhaps, if Laurence can't be reached, someone else can.

GEN

Smooth Water All Our Days by 20thcenturyvole (T, 37k, 2021) Technically Laurence/Tharkay (and they're lovely here) but much more gen-focused. Post-canon, Laurence, with his family's help, gets Temeraire's political career off the ground; meanwhile, Tharkay investigates a conspiracy. Also, parties!

Laurence desires nothing more than to retire to Tharkay's estate and help Temeraire get to Parliament, for what more could he want than a place in Britain with space enough for a dragon, and the company of a dear friend? But wars rarely end so neatly. Bellicose lords, Bourbon princes, errant heirs and shadowy forces threaten to undermine the very peace that Laurence and Temeraire fought to obtain, and ruin the happiness that Laurence was just beginning to glimpse.

remember (you deserve this) by WerewolvesAreReal/@werewolves-are-real (T, 10k, 2018) Laurence finds a different way to punish himself for the treason. Superb angst (mind the tags), and the last line of this fic d e s t r o y e d me

Laurence is pardoned for Temeraire's sake, but he manages to punish himself anyway.

Animal Husbandry by WerewolvesAreReal/@werewolves-are-real (G, 11k, 2017) Laurence is told that Temeraire accepted Dayes as his captain, but Laurence cannot forget the dragon he's lost.

Weeks after finding a dragon egg in the Amitie’s hold William Laurence reluctantly turns away and lets the Corps take Temeraire - but he doesn’t return to the Navy. He’s not an aviator, but somehow Laurence still ends up going down in history as the instigator behind the Great Dragon Rebellion of ‘06.

Captains by StrangerWithMyFace/@agentem (G, 2k, 2010) Perscitia (my beloved!!!) has a rough day; Wellington, in his roundabout way, is there to cheer her up. I am weak for Perscitia and Wellington bonding weak i say

Perscitia encounters two men at the London covert, and one of them is her captain.

Forays Into Human Sexuality (or whatever Laurence is doing) by WerewolvesAreReal/@werewolves-are-real (G, 1k, 2024) Laurence finds out that no, actually, not every man is secretly a repressed bisexual

Laurence says, “It is wholly natural, anyway, with no women around.”

[tomorrowusa]

Four years ago today (March 13th), then President Donald Trump got around to declaring a national state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic. The administration had been downplaying the danger to the United States for 51 days since the first US infection was confirmed on January 22nd.

From an ABC News article dated 25 February 2020...

CDC warns Americans of 'significant disruption' from coronavirus

Until now, health officials said they'd hoped to prevent community spread in the United States. But following community transmissions in Italy, Iran and South Korea, health officials believe the virus may not be able to be contained at the border and that Americans should prepare for a "significant disruption." This comes in contrast to statements from the Trump administration. Acting Department of Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf said Tuesday the threat to the United States from coronavirus "remains low," despite the White House seeking $1.25 billion in emergency funding to combat the virus. Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told CNBC’s Kelly Evans on “The Exchange” Tuesday evening, "We have contained the virus very well here in the U.S." [ ... ] House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the request "long overdue and completely inadequate to the scale of this emergency." She also accused President Trump of leaving "critical positions in charge of managing pandemics at the National Security Council and the Department of Homeland Security vacant." "The president's most recent budget called for slashing funding for the Centers for Disease Control, which is on the front lines of this emergency. And now, he is compounding our vulnerabilities by seeking to ransack funds still needed to keep Ebola in check," Pelosi said in a statement Tuesday morning. "Our state and local governments need serious funding to be ready to respond effectively to any outbreak in the United States. The president should not be raiding money that Congress has appropriated for other life-or-death public health priorities." She added that lawmakers in the House of Representatives "will swiftly advance a strong, strategic funding package that fully addresses the scale and seriousness of this public health crisis." Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also called the Trump administration's request "too little too late." "That President Trump is trying to steal funds dedicated to fight Ebola -- which is still considered an epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo -- is indicative of his towering incompetence and further proof that he and his administration aren't taking the coronavirus crisis as seriously as they need to be," Schumer said in a statement.

A reminder that Trump had been leaving many positions vacant – part of a Republican strategy to undermine the federal government.

Here's a picture from that ABC piece from a nearly empty restaurant in San Francisco's Chinatown. The screen displays a Trump tweet still downplaying COVID-19 with him seeming more concerned about the effect of the Dow Jones on his re-election bid.

People were not buying Trump's claims but they were buying PPE.

I took this picture at CVS on February 26th that year.

The stock market which Trump in his February tweet claimed looked "very good" was tanking on March 12th – the day before his state of emergency declaration.

Trump succeeded in sending the US economy into recession much faster than George W. Bush did at the end of his term – quite a feat!. (As an aside, every recession in the US since 1981 has been triggered by Republican presidents.)

Of course Trump never stopped trying to downplay the pandemic nor did he ever take responsibility for it. The US ended up with the highest per capita death rate of any technologically advanced country.

Precious time was lost while Trump dawdled. Orange on this map indicates COVID infections while red indicates COVID deaths. At the time Trump declared a state of emergency, the virus had already spread to 49 states.

The United States could have done far better and it certainly had the tools to do so.

The Obama administration had limited the number of US cases of Ebola to under one dozen during that pandemic in the 2010s. Based on their success, they compiled a guide on how the federal government could limit future pandemics.

Obama team left pandemic playbook for Trump administration, officials confirm

Of course Trump ignored it.

Unlike those boxes of nuclear secrets in Trump's bathroom, the Obama pandemic limitation document is not classified. Anybody can read it – even if Trump didn't. This copy comes from the Stanford University Libraries.

TOWARDS EPIDEMIC PREDICTION: FEDERAL EFFORTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN OUTBREAK MODELING

Feel free to share this post with anybody who still feels nostalgic about the Trump White House years!

[eugenedebs1920]

Trump may be the pinnacle of avoiding accountability. Hence the name Teflon Don. He has convinced a large swath of Americans he is a victim. A victim of unwarranted indictments, smear campaigns, violations of his 1st amendment rights. He has convinced nearly half the nation that these assaults against him are politically motivated & that it is the Biden administration, of the Democrats who are perpetuating these acts towards him, conveniently leaving out his role in any of it.

If you were to listen to Trump speak with no, or little knowledge of his past, his presidency, or events that occurred towards the end of his presidency and beyond, you would think he was martyr, unjustly persecuted by a oppressive and cruel regime. This couldn’t be further from the truth.

Democrats had no hand in his inability to accept the results of the 2020 presidential election. They did not force him to create a fake electors scheme, they did not force him to continuously lie & fan the flames of anger in his followers, they did not make him incite an insurrection on the capitol to stop the certification of a constitutionally mandated procedure, they did not make him take state secrets, war plans, nuclear secrets, & classified information after he knew his presidency was over, they did not make him refuse to return those documents when asked to by the FBI. Dems did not make Trump pay off a porn star he had sex with by committing business fraud through his lawyer to hide the infidelity from the American voters. There was no push by Democrats to make Trump sexually assault E. Jean Carroll, then habitually defame her in the worlds loudest bully pulpit. Democrats did not force the Trump foundation, a charity in which they defrauded their donors and recipients. There was no forcing the Trump organization to over inflate their assets & under inflate their gains & commit tax fraud. Democrats had no part in these crimes. It was Trump and Trump alone who partook in this criminality.

Regardless of what the Supreme Court says, a core principle of our Constitutional Republic is the notion that NO one is above the law. That all must, & will, be held accountable for their actions in a court of law. This includes congressmen, the wealthy, senators, the poor, and the president of the United States.

Trump can play the victim. He can whine and lie constantly (and he does). He can pretend he is an innocent target to a powerful entity that is coming after him without merit and by no fault of his own.

This is a complete distortion. Trump committed these crimes, & unlike his claims of a rigged election, there is evidence to back it up, proof that he engaged in this lawlessness.

Trump thinks the American people are dumb. That we can’t see what is in front of our face. That we can be manipulated by a two but conman but, wee see through his deception. We see through the lies. We are not as ignorant as he thinks we are.

There will come a day when Trump must answer for the crimes he engaged in. Until then he will cry & blame others for his misdeeds. It will not negate his guilt. A time will come. Let’s hope it’s soon so America can begin to heal from the assault committed against her.

[mariacallous]

US appeals court upholds TikTok law forcing its sale

WASHINGTON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - A U.S. federal appeals court on Friday upheld a law requiring Chinese-based ByteDance to divest its popular short video app TikTok in the United States by early next year or face a ban.

The decision is a win for the Justice Department and opponents of the Chinese-owned app and a devastating blow to ByteDance. The ruling now increases the possibility of an unprecedented ban in just six weeks on a social media app used by 170 million Americans.

The ruling is expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court.

Free speech advocates immediately criticized the decision. The American Civil Liberties Union said it sets a "flawed and dangerous precedent."

"Banning TikTok blatantly violates the First Amendment rights of millions of Americans who use this app to express themselves and communicate with people around the world,” said Patrick Toomey, deputy director of the ACLU's National Security Project.

But the appeals court said the law “was the culmination of extensive, bipartisan action by the Congress and by successive presidents. It was carefully crafted to deal only with control by a foreign adversary, and it was part of a broader effort to counter a well-substantiated national security threat posed by the PRC (People's Republic of China)."

U.S. appeals court Judges Sri Srinivasan, Neomi Rao and Douglas Ginsburg considered the legal challenges brought by TikTok and users against the law that gives ByteDance until Jan. 19 to sell or divest TikTok's U.S. assets or face a ban.

The decision -- unless the Supreme Court reverses it -- puts TikTok's fate in the hands of first President JoeBiden on whether to grant a 90-day extension of the Jan. 19 deadline to force a sale and then President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20. But it's not clear whether ByteDance could meet the heavy burden to show it had made significant progress toward a divestiture needed to trigger the extension.

Trump, who unsuccessfully tried to ban TikTok during his first term in 2020, said before the November presidential election he would not allow the TikTok ban.

TikTok said it expected the Supreme Court would reverse the appeals court decision on First Amendment grounds.

"The Supreme Court has an established historical record of protecting Americans' right to free speech, and we expect they will do just that on this important constitutional issue," TikTok said in a statement, adding the law will result "in outright censorship of the American people."

The Justice Department did not have an immediate comment on the decision.

The decision upholds the law giving the U.S. government sweeping powers to ban other foreign-owned apps that could raise concerns about collection of Americans' data. In 2020, Trump also tried to ban Tencent-owned WeChat, but was blocked by the courts.

Shares of Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab, which competes against TikTok in online ads, hit an intraday record high following the ruling, last up over 3%. Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab, whose YouTube video platform also competes with TikTok, was up over 1% following the ruling.

TIKTOK BAN LOOMS

The court acknowledged its decision would lead to TikTok's ban on Jan. 19 without an extension from Biden.

"Consequently, TikTok's millions of users will need to find alternative media of communication," the court said, which was because of China's "hybrid commercial threat to U.S. national security, not to the U.S. Government, which engaged with TikTok through a multi-year process in an effort to find an alternative solution."

The opinion was written by Ginsburg, an appointee of President Ronald Reagan, and joined by Rao, who was named to the bench by Trump, and Srinivasan, an appointee of President Barack Obama.

The Justice Department says under Chinese ownership, TikTok poses a serious national security threat because of its access to vast personal data of Americans, asserting China can covertly manipulate information that Americans consume via TikTok.

U.S. officials have also warned TikTok's management is beholden to the Chinese government, which could compel the company to share the data of its American users.

TikTok has denied it has or ever would share U.S. user data, accusing American lawmakers in the lawsuit of advancing "speculative" concerns.

TikTok and ByteDance argue the law is unconstitutional and violates Americans' free speech rights. They call it "a radical departure from this country's tradition of championing an open Internet."

ByteDance, backed by Sequoia Capital, Susquehanna International Group, KKR & Co (KKR.N), opens new tab, and General Atlantic, among others, was valued at $268 billion in December 2023 when it offered to buy back around $5 billion worth of shares from investors, Reuters reported then.

The law prohibits app stores like Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab and Alphabet's (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Google from offering TikTok and bars internet hosting services from supporting TikTok unless ByteDance divests TikTok by the deadline.

Apple and Google did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

In a concurring opinion, Srinivasan acknowledged the decision will have major impacts, noting "170 million Americans use TikTok to create and view all sorts of free expression and engage with one another and the world. And yet, in part precisely because of the platform’s expansive reach, Congress and multiple Presidents determined that divesting it from (China's) control is essential to protect our national security."

He added that "Because the record reflects that Congress's decision was considered, consistent with longstanding regulatory practice, and devoid of an institutional aim to suppress particular messages or ideas, we are not in a position to set it aside."

[calderacitylovers]

Wholesome Zutara Short Stories

Tell Me Where Your Heart Is by badlucksav | Published: 2021-04-12 | 2,363 words

Katara accidentally discovers a secret stash of love letters Zuko has written to an anonymous woman but never sent. Could he be talking about her? “And I can’t help but hope that maybe that’s a sign, that you feel for me as I feel for you. Maybe you’re afraid to put it to words, as I am. But I cannot ever speak these feelings to you unless I know...I won’t put you in that position.”

Tales of Tenderness by emicha | Published: 2021-04-06 | 3,068 words

Toph, Iroh, Sokka, Gran Gran, Aang, and Azula observe how the relationship between Zuko and Katara unfolds over the years. “This is the picture of two souls that have seen too much bad already, who’ve grieved and hurt more than one single lifetime should permit; the picture of two people who still have it in them to hold a person so different from oneself this close.”

MOONTIDES by  MarkedMage | Published: 2020-11-24 | 10K Words

He smells like fire and feels like home. She smells like rain and feels like love. A short story about Zuko and Katara’s first kiss inspired by this and this glorious animation by Hayley Foster Wong.

GOLD by ifyouwereamelody | Published: 2020-11-27 | 3,7K Words

Zuko and Katara’s first kiss in a fall garden.

A Love Story Told in Reverse by cablesscutie | Published: 2021-04-26 | 9,324 words

A collection of sweet outtakes from Zuko and Katara’s life: from their childhoods to becoming parents. “Her head tips to rest on his shoulder, and with his heart in his throat, he gives into the months-old urge to kiss her hair. She makes a happy little hum, and Zuko can’t breathe.”

just say when by hawktasha | Published: 2021-03-16 | 6,131 words

After Sokka and Suki’s wedding, Katara wakes up with the worst hangover of her life, with the best friend she has been harboring feelings in secret for the last few years laying next to her, no clothes at all on either of their bodies. Oh, and she had no idea how they ended up in that predicament.

Engagement Chicken: The Engagement Scheme by DontStopHerNow | Published: 2022-09-18 | 23K words

After a night of commiseration about marriage expectations, Katara and Zuko agree to fake an engagement to get the meddlers off their backs. They'll call Chicken on the arrangement when everyone else objects. This can't last a month! Featuring: meddling friends, heartfelt words cloaked in half-truths, chaperones, Fire Nation engagement traditions, Southern Water Tribe wedding traditions, background couples, and a squid-whale with a mistaken identity

The Dragon of the West’s Guide to Flirting by bluesunflower44 | Published: 2021-05-12 | 4,341 words

“Now. Take very good care of this, it’s a family heirloom. Although no one passed it down to me, since I wrote it, it will be a family heirloom one day. I just know it.” Uncle Iroh is good with the ladies. So taking his advice when it comes to romance should go just fine...right?

Strike a Match by Naladot | Published: 2022-09-03 | 22K

At Republic City's second annual HeiBai festival, Fire Lord Zuko has contracted a matchmaker to find him a permanent political ally—or, well, a wife. He asks Katara to chaperone his meetings. But this arrangement only threatens to reveal the truth: there are a lot of things neither of them have ever dared to talk about.

Seven Years Bad Luck by riathermopolis | Published: 2021-08-08 | 20.6K words

The gaang reunites every summer for a week on Ember Island, which in theory Katara supports whole-heartedly. The only problem is that apparently some higher power on the island is on a mission to humiliate her. At least, that's her best guess for why she suddenly can't act like a normal person around Zuko. Or: Katara repeatedly embarrasses herself in front of Zuko.

Maiden Mother Crone by MoonShoesReyes  | Published: 2021-02-12 | 10,8K Words

Post-canon. After the ravages of war, Katara learns to wear three faces: maiden, mother, and crone. A sweet story of Zuko supporting Katara in her journey of self-discovery and finding a purpose. A sprinkle of Blue Spirit and Painted Lady. "After years of being empty, Katara finally knew who she was - or at least, she knew who she was at the core. Though her cast of masks stayed ever-changing, the Painted Lady was always kind and just."

Bound to Burn by Selemetis | Published: 2020-10-02 | 10,3K Words

Post-canon. Zuko witnesses the kiss between Aang and Katara. Over the coming months Zuko and Katara work their way back together. "Zuko knew he had to let Katara go for her to see where she wanted to stand."

So Close and Still So Far by EKWolf2020| Published: 2022-09-18 | 6,4K Words

It is the ten-year celebration of the end of The Hundred-year-old war. Expectations and excitement are in the air for most of the world. But for Katara, she feels dread as some news has come to her that could change everything. Will she follow with expectations, or will she find that there is another path for her?

The Brave Man Only Once by ifyouwereamelody | Published: 2021-02-19 | 2,2K Words

Firelord Zuko and Ambassador Katara’s first kiss. “He flinches as a voice rips him abruptly out of his own thoughts and drops him back into the meeting; the table of council members is watching him, staring with raised brows that beg the answer to a question he doesn’t know, but Katara refuses to look his way.”

Til Kingdom Come by bluenebulae | Published: 2020-07-26 | Words: 6,2K

Four years after Sozin’s Comet, Katara finds her way home. A proposal story. Supportive Gaang. “I’ve spent four years exploring every corner of this world, Zuko. I’ve been a waterbending master and a shop girl, an assistant in an abbey and an advisor to the Earth King and a whole bunch of people in the Fire colonies still think I’m an actual spirit. I think, now, I just want to be Katara. And that means being here.”

Voyage by amoeve | Published: 2015-07-24 | Words: 4,2K When Zuko asks Katara to marry him, it is for love. But it’s also an alliance that shows the world that the war is truly over, and everyone wants to get in on the fun. For their wedding Zuko and Katara work their way through over-the-top combination of customs and traditions from the four nations. Hilarious and absurd, but wholesome. “She’s a waterbender. When they travel, the little ship skims across the surface of the sea, eating up the miles, and they have ice houses to sleep in every night. He’s a firebender. He lights their way when the fogs descend, keeps them warm when they sleep, and fries the fish she catches in his hands.”

But Who’s Counting? by halfhoursonearth | Published: 2023-12-28 Words: 7K

After the Last Agni Kai Zuko and Katara are waiting for the news from the GAang and get to explore their friendship and growing connection. A tender and beautiful story. “Tears are gathering in her eyes, and a new tightness pulls at Zuko’s chest. Though he still isn’t used to the casual way his new friends touch one another, this is not the first time he has felt the instinct to reach for Katara, in particular—to lay a comforting hand on her shoulder or arm. But wiping tears from her face is something new, and Katara watches him with wide eyes as his hand rises to her cheek.”

happiness (that's all rolled up in you) by soopsiedaisies | Published: 2024-01-17 | 3,8K words

A first kiss story. Zuko and Katara are cooking dinner for the Gaang on the Ember Island. Sweet, thrilling, and beautiful. "She reckons that she likes a lot of things about Zuko. She likes his face, for starters: his nose, his eyes, his mouth. She likes his scar and the way he dresses. She likes how he picks up the slack left by the others like those tasks were his anyway and she likes his smile. She likes the way he kisses and she really likes his hair."

For the Fire Nation | 2019-11-25 | 2,8K words

He falls in love with her for his country before he falls in love with her for himself. A short and beautiful AU story that explores how love and duty aren’t always mutually exclusive.

[venusvity]

Yoo Mirae (Korean: 유미래, born January 6, 1997), known professionally as Bliss (Korean: 블리스; Japanese: 至福), is a Korean singer, dancer, and actress based in South Korea. She is a former member of the South Korean girl group Venus, formed by Angelico Entertainment in 2018. She is portrayed by Lee Yoomi & Wendy Son.

Mirae was born on January 6, 1997, in Gunpo, Gyeonggi Province, South Korea. Her mother is the esteemed musical theatre actress Yoo Misun. Mirae attended high school at the School of Performing Arts in Seoul. Throughout her school years, she starred in multiple school musicals. She joined a school drama club and earned more experience in the entertainment industry by attending auditions.

In 2014, Mirae joined Angelico Entertainment as a trainee after passing its auditions. 

In October 2014, she appeared in Emphasis' music video for "Du Du Du!" as a lifeguard. The same year, she starred in Priority's "Say You Love Me" music video as Reid's love interest. In 2015, she would be featured in W Korea alongside Kang Juwon of Priority. Mirae would do a lot of modeling pre-debut, working with brands such as Laneige, Nature Republic, Amuse, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, and Etude House.

𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟖: 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐕𝐄𝐍𝐔𝐒

On March 17, 2018, Mirae would officially debut in VENUS with the release of their first extended play (EP), SHE DEVIL, and its lead single, "SHE DEVIL." She would take on the stage name "Bliss."

She was the group's co-leader, main rapper, and main vocalist.

𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟎 - 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟏: 𝐀𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐮𝐭

In January 2020, Bliss made her acting debut as the female lead in the web drama Please Try Again, which achieved record-breaking viewership.

On March 24, 2021, Bliss was announced as a cast member for the musical Midnight Sun as Seo Haena, with DAY6's Wonpil, Baekho, DeepDive's Kiwoo, GOT7's Youngjae, Shinee's Onew, Kang Hye-in, Kei, and Lee Ah-jin. To promote the musical, she collaborated with stage member Onew to release "A Melody Called You (너라는 멜로디)"

𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒: 𝐃𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐕𝐄𝐍𝐔𝐒

On June 10, 2024, during the Venus contract transfer, Bliss, unlike the other four members of Venus, would not sign with Mydol Entertainment. A letter announcing Bliss's departure from the group would be posted to Venus' social media accounts.

It is still under heavy debate if Bliss left the group or was removed by Mydol CEOs.

On August 7th, 2024, Bliss renewed her contract with Angelico Entertainment.

Before her debut with Venus, Yoonah featured in advertisements for Samsonite, Smart Uniform, LG Electronics, and Nikon. 

In September 2018, Bliss and band-mate Baebi became endorsement models for Japanese cosmetics brand Kiss Me. 

In September 2021, Bliss was announced as the new host of the program Music Bank with L.O.L's Jesse. For their performance on the program, they were awarded with the Best Couple Award at the 2021 KBS Entertainment Awards.

In February 2021, Korean clothing brand It Michaa selected Bliss as its muse for its Spring 2021 collection. She was also appointed for the summer 2021 campaign on It Michaa's line, For a Day Michaa. 

In 2022, Coca-Cola Korea selected Bliss as an endorsement model for Dr Pepper.

In January 2023, Bliss stepped down as Music Bank host after sixteen months in the role.

In February 2023, Bliss became the new muse for the South Korean casual fashion brand SJSJ.

In December 2023, Dyson selected Bliss as its official Brand Ambassador, representing the new Dyson hair care products. Then, in January 2024, the American athletic apparel retailer Alo Yoga announced Bliss as the new face for its spring 2024 campaign. 

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Robert Tait at The Guardian:

Republicans are already laying the ground for rejecting the result of next week’s US presidential election in the event Donald Trump loses, with early lawsuits baselessly alleging fraud and polls from right-leaning groups that analysts say may be exaggerating his popularity and could be used by Trump to claim only cheating prevented him from returning to the White House.

The warnings – from Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans – come as Americans prepare to vote on Tuesday in the most consequential presidential contest in generations. Most polls show Trump running neck and neck with Kamala Harris, the vice-president and Democratic nominee, with the two candidates seemingly evenly matched in seven key swing states. But suspicions have been voiced over a spate of recent polls, mostly commissioned in battleground states from groups with Republican links, that mainly show Trump leading. The projection of surging Trump support as election day nears has drawn confident predictions from him and his supporters. “We’re leading big in the polls, all of the polls,” Trump told a rally in New Mexico on Thursday. “I can’t believe it’s a close race,” he told a separate rally in North Carolina, a swing state where polls show he and Harris are in a virtual dead heat.

An internal memo sent to Trump by his chief pollster is confirming that story to him, with Tony Fabrizio declaring the ex-president’s “position nationally and in every single battleground state is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was four years ago”. Pro-Trump influencers, too, have strengthened the impression of inevitable victory with social media posts citing anonymous White House officials predicting Harris’s defeat. “Biden is telling advisers the election is ‘dead and buried’ and called Harris an innate sucker,” the conspiracy theorist Jack Posobiec posted this week. GOP-aligned polling groups have released 37 polls in the final stretch of the campaign, according to a study by the New York Times, during a period when longstanding pollsters have been curtailing their voter surveys. All but seven showed a lead for Trump, in contrast to the findings of long-established non-partisan pollsters, which have shown a more mixed picture – often with Harris leading, albeit within error margins.

[...] Trump, who falsely claims that Joe Biden stole the 2020 election, is also paving the way for repeating the accusation via legal means. He told a rally in Pennsylvania that Democrats were “cheating” in the state, and on Wednesday his campaign took legal action against election officials in Bucks County, where voters waiting to submit early mail-in ballots were turned away because the deadline had expired. A judge later ordered the county to extend early voting by one day. There is no evidence of widespread cheating in elections in Pennsylvania or any other state, and mail-in ballots are in high demand in part because Trump himself has encouraged early voting. Suing to allege – without evidence – that there has been voting fraud is part of a well-worn pattern of Trump disputing election results that do not go his way. In the aftermath of the 2020 election, his team filed 60 lawsuits disputing the results, all of which were forcefully thrown out in court. Anti-Trump Republicans have expressed similar concerns to Democrats about Trump’s actions. Michael Steele, a former Republican national committee chair and Trump critic, told the New Republic that the GOP-commissioned polls were gamed to favour Trump. “You find different ways to weight the participants, and that changes the results you’re going to get,” he said. “They’re gamed on the back end so Maga can make the claim that the election was stolen.”

[...] Trump-leaning surveys have influenced the polling averages published by sites such as Real Clear Politics, which has incorporated the results into its projected electoral map on election night, forecasting a win for the former president. Elon Musk, Trump’s wealthiest backer and surrogate, posted the map to his 202 million followers on his own X platform, proclaiming: “The trend will continue.” Trump and Musk have also promoted online betting platforms, which have bolstered the impression of a surge for the Republican candidate stemming from hefty bets on him winning. A small number of high-value wagers from four accounts linked to a French national appeared to be responsible for $28m gambled on a Trump victory on the Polymarket platform, the New York Times reported.

Republicans prepping to be sore losers by rejecting the results if Donald Trump loses.

[detroitpedxing]

(Archived News, Sept. 17. 2024) Second Apparent Assassination Attempt on Trump Prompts Alarm Abroad

There is widespread concern that the November election will not end well and that American democracy has frayed to the breaking point.

In the nine years since Donald J. Trump entered American politics, the global perception of the United States has been shaken by the image of a fractured, unpredictable nation. First one, then a second apparent attempt on the former president’s life have accentuated international concerns, raising fears of violent turmoil spiraling toward civil war.

Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, has said he is “very worried” and “deeply troubled” by what the F.B.I. said was an attempt to kill Mr. Trump at his Florida golf course, fewer than 50 days before the presidential election and two months after a bullet bloodied the ear of Mr. Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

“Violence has no part to play at all in any political process,” Mr. Starmer said.

Yet, violence has played a core part in this stormy, lurching American political campaign, and not only in the two apparent assassination attempts. There is now widespread concern across the globe that the November election will not end well and that American democracy, once a beacon to the world, has frayed to the breaking point.

In Mexico, where elections this year were the most violent in the country’s recent history, with 41 candidates and aspirants for public office assassinated, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said in a post on X, formerly Twitter: “Even though what happened is still unclear, we regret the violence against former President Donald Trump. The path is democracy and peace.”

At a time of wars in Europe and the Middle East and widespread global insecurity as China and Russia assert the superiority of their autocratic models, American precariousness weighs heavily.

Corentin Sellin, a French history professor, said the “brutalization of American politics” had left France “wondering whether the presidential campaign will finish peacefully.”

France was stunned, he said, by the Jan. 6, 2021, storming of the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters, and “there is this notion that the story that started with that insurrection has not yet ended,” and that the Nov. 5 election will determine how it does.

The threat of violence — at times, even the need for it — has been a core part of Mr. Trump’s message.

He has already cast doubt on the credibility of the coming November election results. He has persistently laced his language with calls to “fight” and used incendiary terms to insult immigrants. Just before the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol, he urged followers to “fight like hell” or they would not “have a country any more.” In general, he has shown an ironclad incapacity to accept many truths, including the result of the 2020 election.

Democrats have responded by depicting Mr. Trump as a direct menace to American democracy, a “weird” would-be autocrat of fascist tendencies and a “threat to our freedoms,” in the words of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee. The left-leaning New Republic magazine portrayed Mr. Trump as Hitler on a recent cover, expressing the view that a second Trump term is likely to lead to some form of American tyranny.

Some Europeans see things in a very different light.

“They tried to do everything,” said Andrea Di Giuseppe, a lawmaker with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy party. “They tried to bring Trump down with trials, they tried to bring him down with insinuations, they tried to bring him down by scaring people that ‘if Trump arrives democracy ends.’ Then, since all these attempts did not work, they tried to kill him.”

The authorities have identified a suspect in the Florida episode, Ryan W. Routh, a 58-year-old building contractor with a criminal history and a passionate embrace of the Ukrainian cause. He was charged in federal court with two firearms counts. More charges may follow.

Responding to the apparent assassination attempt, Carsten Luther, an online editor for international affairs, gave voice to deep concerns about the survival of American democracy in the respected German weekly Die Zeit. “The warnings of a civil war can be heard and no longer sound completely unrealistic,” he wrote. “It seems almost banal, as if it was bound to happen at some point.”

Of course, other Western societies, including France and Germany, are also viscerally divided and have seen the rise of xenophobic, far-right parties with many of the same messages as Mr. Trump. In May, an assassination attempt on Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia left him critically injured.

But a far more restrictive European gun culture has curbed the extent of political violence while leaving Europeans alarmed and incredulous at the ease with which Americans are able to obtain weapons.

Félix Maradiaga, a former Nicaraguan presidential candidate and political prisoner who is now a fellow at the University of Virginia, said that polarization, intolerance and the widespread availability of high-caliber weapons in the United States had led to a “perfect storm.”

“The world is watching, and the stakes could not be higher,” he added. “Russia and China are undoubtedly taking satisfaction in this deterioration of democracy.”

Lebohang Pheko, a senior research fellow at South Africa’s Trade Collective, an economics research institute, said that she perceived “a militarization of everyday life in the United States, and this essentially seems to be spilling into these elections.”

Mr. Trump has often appeared to seek this very militarization of which he has narrowly escaped being a victim. The multimillionaire son of a real-estate developer from Queens, he has positioned himself as the defender of the gun-toting, God-fearing American frontier against what he portrays as the Democrats’ politically correct socialist takeover.

Alluding to his Democratic opponents, he has blamed “the things that they say about me” for the first assassination attempt and the second episode, not the easy access to guns that he defends.

The question now is how violent will this political confrontation in America prove. For many around the world, it seems to contain the seeds of rampant conflict.

“There is a sort of reciprocal delegitimization, where the political opponent is no longer a normal political competitor, but also an existential enemy,” said Mario Del Pero, a professor of United States and International History at Sciences Po University in Paris. He called this process “a degradation of political and public discourse.”

In the United States, this has been a degradation compounded by guns, as much of the world sees it.

“Style over substance. Image over issues. Lies over facts. Distractions over policy. Repeated violence,” said Tomasz Płudowski, the deputy dean of the School of Social Science, AEH, in Warsaw. “That seems to be the contemporary American reality.”

The core confrontation in Western societies is no longer over internal issues. It is global vs. national, the connected living in the “somewhere” of the knowledge economy vs. the forgotten living “nowhere” in industrial wastelands and rural areas.

There lies the frustration, even fury, on which a Trump or a Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right French National Rally, or Ms. Meloni in Italy have been able to build.

The perceived vulnerability of American democracy has already provoked many reactions around the world, from Russian gloating and interference to European anxiety about its security. Few countries in the developing world want American lessons in how to run their societies these days.

Yet, a fascination with the United States endures, and the checks and balances of its institutions have proved resilient, including through the first Trump term.

Mr. Trump often cites the template of Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary: neutralizing an independent judiciary, subjugating much of the media, demonizing migrants and creating loyal new elites through crony capitalism. But it would not be easy to impose in America.

Still, the world is anxious. The 48 days to the election feel like a long time.

“In the end, the only real final word is for the American people,” said Mr. Di Giuseppe, the Italian lawmaker. “And if you want to defeat a person whom you think is not fit to govern the United States of America, you have to defeat him in a democratic system with elections, not with justice or Kalashnikovs.”