#2024 Elections

[noneofyrbz]

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MATT'S BARGAINING TOOL

[uboat53]

All right, the votes are now almost entirely in, so let's take a look at the most recent election, shall we? LONG RANT (TM) time.

THE MANDATE

As you may have already heard, Donald Trump won the election and is already claiming that it was an overwhelming victory which gives him a powerful mandate to govern as he wills.

As with most things he says, you should take all of that with a heaping spoonful of salt. Now that almost every vote is in (CA and WA still have about 3% of their votes left to count, but the rest is pretty much final) we can clearly see that, though he did get more of the popular vote than Kamala Harris, he still fell short of 50% for the third election in a row and he only led Harris by about 1.5%. Not only that, but with the full results we can see that more than 4.5 million fewer people voted in 2024 than voted in 2020, meaning that a good amount of the increase he saw from 2020 wasn't a result of more people favoring him.

(Fun fact, Kamala Harris may have gotten as many votes in 2024 as Donald Trump did in 2020 depending on the last few votes left to count.)

More to the point, Trump's electoral college victory, 312 to 226, is also far more fragile than he would have you believe. As in 2016, his margin of victory rested on the so-called "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In those states, a total shift of 232,580 votes, or less than 1.5% of the total votes cast in those states, OR just over 0.15% of the total votes cast nation-wide, would have produced a Harris presidency instead of a Trump one.

(I would note that Biden's margin of victory in 2020 was similarly slim, 1.65% of the votes cast it the blue wall states and just over 0.16% of the nation-wide total. His popular vote victory, though, was significantly larger, he won 51.3% of the popular vote, just about 4.5% more than Trump. I'd say there's a fair case to be made that he didn't have a powerful mandate either, but he had a better claim to one that Trump does now.)

In other words, Trump won, but it's a razor thin victory by any standard. That seems to be par for the course for the last few elections, the last significant victory, one with a margin of greater than 5% in the key states AND where the winner won the national popular vote by more than 2% (admittedly somewhat arbitrary markers, but ones that put the outside the margins of error for recounts or other likelihoods), was when Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008 and the last one before that was Clinton's victory in 1996 or even Bush Sr.'s victory in 1988 if you are looking for one that wasn't confused by the presence of a significant third-party candidate.

THE CAUSES

So why did Trump win/Harris lose? Knowing the answer will allow us to determine both what the winner can/should do once in office and also what the losing candidate/party should adjust in order to do better next time.

One thing you have to know is that there's still not definitive answers on this from the last several dozen elections, so it's unlikely we'll get a quick answer this time around. There's good academic research to show that people respond to the specific messages of the candidates, but there's also good research showing that vote share can shift based on things as unrelated to the candidates as the number of shark attacks in a region in a given year.

A big caution I would give to anyone who is looking to argue that a specific issue, candidate statement, candidate quality, or policy proposal is responsible for the current result is that we've actually seen a very odd thing in elections around the world this year. For the first time in the last 120 years, every single incumbent party that faced election in the developed world lost vote share. In fact, of those incumbent parties facing election, the US Democrats actually had among the lowest decline. As to why, there are a few commonalities; every single developed country that held elections this year saw significant increases in both immigration and inflation in the past two years, for example, but it's hard to make conclusive statements without quite a bit more study.

My point is simply this: before trumpeting this thing or that thing as the definitive answer for why Trump won/Harris lost, be sure that you're not actually just looking at something that's larger than our country or statistical noise. I know we like to ascribe outcomes to definitive and controllable circumstances, but complex events tend to have multiple interrelated causes that can interact in unpredictable ways and one of the lessons of history is that sometimes we're subject to powerful forces that are beyond the ability of one country or its leadership to dictate.

THE PUNDITRY

Of course, by now you're probably seeing dozens of articles and tons of episodes of news programs on TV and radio that are saying a lot more than I am. Just in the last few days I've seen dozens of them ranging from arguing that the election was decided by young men of Gen Z who have been radicalized by right-wing manfluencers, that Democrats didn't do enough to reach out to Latinos in Spanish, that RFK Jr. turned out key demographics for Trump, or that Republican laws and policies in key states depressed voter turnout.

I cannot say loudly enough that we do not have enough data to actually make any of these kinds of arguments. If we're fortunate, we'll start getting the first real results of voter intent studies sometime around next summer, but even then a binary choice like a presidential election based on thousands of shifting variables is far too complex to ever allow us to do anything than note large-scale trends. Detail may eventually be impossible to find an, in an election as close as the one we just had (see above), it's possible to say that just about any small factor may have been the critical one.

My advice is simple, if you don't know what to do or think now, take some time and consider it. Don't overreact and don't be swayed by whoever speaks the most passionately. If you do know what you want to do, start doing it. Don't wait for results that may never come; do your best to make what you want come about. The methods of activism should be shaped by data, but the goals must be set by your own conscience and, if you're already an activist, hopefully you've already figured that part out. Finally, if all of this is affecting your mental health, step away from it. The election is over and there is nothing more that you, as a voter, can do to change anything. There will be time for more voting and activism later.

As for the pundits on TV, radio, and in print; I'm planning to ignore them for the next few months. Yes, even me, who consumes way more political media than is probably good for a person, is going to step away. Over the last few months in particular I've become more and more convinced that quality political coverage has largely disappeared (or been removed) from the American media landscape. I'm going to take some time and figure out where I can still find it.

CONCLUSION

Look, I know the election was a wild ride for everyone and it likely settled nothing as far as the major issues that continue to roil American politics, but if you're looking for a reason why things turned out the way they did, I don't have anything definitive to provide. It was close, about as close as it's possible to get, and there's a hundred possible reasons why. Take care of yourself, figure out where you stand, what you believe, and what you want to/are willing to do and start planning for that.

This is the world now, probably for the foreseeable future. Your job isn't to fix every problem, your job is to do what you can for as long as you can and pass it down to the next generation in as good a shape as you can manage. That's the same job every generation has had, let's do our part.

[lacewise-psas]

Been hearing a lot about Kamala Harris campaigning with Liz Cheney and I’m going to explain why that’s a self-own

Harris did not campaign with Cheney because she thought “oh Miss Cheney has great ideas and will convince people to vote for me!”

She campaigned with her to say “see, I can work with anyone—yeah, them too.” I would like to note this strategy worked for Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton.

Now, sweeties, if you don’t have the comprehension skills to understand that I don’t know why you’re blaming the outgoing vice president and not your own education for failing you spectacularly. Why would you even admit your understanding was that poor in public? Between us, I wouldn’t.

So, options: you are extremely incompetent, you are extremely racist, or you are so misogynistic that when you see two women in a room together you worry your head will explode. I’m excited to find out which one you all are subscribed to. Because any option increases the person claiming this is a Trump voter exponentially.

Kamala Harris is a professional and adult. Her campaign should not have been holding each and every voter in her lap explaining what a tariff is. It should be celebrated for what it was: good politicking. Please pretend you can be serious. (And it should be noted Hillary Clinton was eviscerated for not being bipartisan enough: stop trying to excuse people hating women.)

It’s not on her if the public doesn’t understand serious politics. It’s on the public, the education system, and the media. Which are all now international embarrassments.

Thank you and good day.

[politicalfeed]

Former President Obama wishes happy birthday for President biden

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Kylie Cheung at Jezebel:

The day after Election Day, calls to the Trevor Project’s crisis services hotline for LGBTQ youth surged by 200%; online searches for abortion pills and emergency contraception skyrocketed, too. Queer youth, women, and girls were clearly concerned about what a second Trump presidency meant for their safety and their futures. But the country has been largely apathetic to their fears. Instead, we’re being called to consider young men’s suffering—real and imagined—and the insidious forces that seemed to shift this demographic to the right. A sampling of post-election headlines includes, “We Asked Young Men Why They Voted for Donald Trump—Here’s What They Said,” “The ‘Lost Boys’ of Gen Z: how Trump won the hearts of alienated young men,” “What’s the Matter with Young Male Voters?” and “Trump Offered Men Something That Democrats Never Could.” Of course, Jezebel is now adding to that list, but what’s missing from some of these stories is the manosphere as an increasingly powerful political arm.

Exit polls show Trump received a larger proportion of voters under 30 than any Republican presidential candidate since 2008. In 2020, Joe Biden beat Trump by 11 points among men under 30. Last week, Trump beat Kamala Harris by two points. (Among young white men without college degrees, he beat Harris 56% to 40%.) Some of this should be taken with a grain of salt: Youth turnout dropped sharply from 2020, so these stats offer an incomplete snapshot of an entire generation’s views. But, as journalists, organizers, and the Democratic Party scramble for answers, one concern that’s come to the forefront is the manosphere—a fast-growing, unrepentantly hateful community of men’s lifestyle influencers, podcasters, and media personalities who glorify and preach misogyny to a new generation of young men. Think: serially accused rapist and human trafficker Andrew Tate, hate speech-platforming Twitch streamer Adin Ross, or misogynist streamer Sneako, who once slapped a woman on camera as a “prank.” There’s also TikTok star Bryce Hall, who joined Trump on the campaign trail about a year after collaborating with proud neo-Nazis, including Sneako. One video from December 2023 shows Sneako laughing as he’s approached by young fans who yell, “Fuck the women” and “All gays can die.” He half-jokingly asks the camera, “What have I done?”

On Election Night, Trump handed the mic to UFC President Dana White (who, like Sneako, also slapped a woman on camera) at his victory party, and White directly thanked Ross, as well as the Nelk Boys and Theo Von, more popular manosphere influencers and podcasters who also supported Trump’s campaign. Over the last several months, Trump made numerous appearances on their shows and streams and hosted them at his rallies. And, because this seems to have worked, those who didn’t see Trump’s victory coming are now trying to understand this chilling sphere of influence that’s seemingly been radicalizing young men right under our noses.

It may be annoying, even disturbing to have to take this increasingly mainstream underworld seriously, but Angelo Carusone, president of Media Matters for America (MMFA), tells Jezebel that understanding the manosphere is important to understand “what future generations are going to look like.” Carusone says MMFA researchers tracked at least 20 times that Trump appeared on manosphere podcasts—including those of Von, Hall, the Nelk Boys, and Jake Paul—since May. In 2023, Ross and other popular manosphere creators including JiDion, Steve Deleonardis, Jorge Masvidal, and alleged rapist DJ Akademiks, appeared with Trump at a UFC event. The meet-and-greet was set up by right-wing video platform, Rumble.

MMFA has been closely following manosphere stars for years now, watching them and the social platforms that host them profit off of mocking rape survivors and trans people, or joking about and openly celebrating violence against women to their impressionable, mostly teen and tween boy audiences. Young people who might turn to them for apolitical interests—weightlifting, video games, MMA fighting, dating advice—are increasingly inundated with out-of-context stats and arguments about how much easier it is for women to get jobs, or minorities to get into college, or trans people to succeed at sports. These audiences are radicalized to believe a liberal, feminist world order is crushing them. Now, thanks to social media algorithms, content about weightlifting, video games, MMA fighting, and dating has become a pipeline to the right.

[...] Nicole Regalado, vice president of campaigns at Ultraviolet, told Jezebel her organization has been tracking online misogyny campaigns since Gamergate in 2014, which saw an outbreak of rabid sexism, racism, and queerphobia against perceived feminist progress in the video game industry. But she’s been alarmed by sharp rises in online harassment against women in recent years. It doesn’t help, Regalado said, that at a time when the manosphere is surging, with the help of anti-MeToo backlash and a golden age of media illiteracy, “social media platforms are gutting moderation, trust, and safety teams,” while “platforming and profiting off hate.” A lot of this came to a head with the outcome of the 2024 election, Regalado said, which “followed months of disinformation and racism-misogyny about Kamala Harris” from popular right-wing, manosphere-type influencers. Trump’s victory has only emboldened this toxic stew of misogyny, culminating in the viral “your body, my choice” slogan.

I understand the importance of Democrats and progressives figuring out how to “reach” young men—the electoral stakes are high, especially for the most marginalized among us. But in the last week, I’ve often found myself frustrated, even disgusted by the idea that young men are uniquely suffering because they’re young men, that they deserve outsized sympathy and attention at a time when women and other marginalized communities are on the brink of perhaps one of the severest rollbacks of our rights in modern times. Teen girls and young women suffer from endemic sexual violence and misogyny, and many still find it in their hearts to not elect a fascist. 

Carusone says he’s struggled with this, too. But he’s made sense of it by understanding the manosphere and its toxic, mass appeal as a youth issue. “The 30-year-old men who are upset, the Tucker Carlsons of the world, they need to get over it. They’re not who I’m talking about,” he said. But manosphere content is poisoning the minds of children, shaping them to become violent toward other children, to grow up and inflict violence on marginalized people. “We have to think about this as it relates to kids. If we don’t do something about this now, we’re messing up kids,” Carusone explained. “As these boys and young men grow, they’re going to build and organize political power, and even worse, as they move into maturity, they’re going to be more violent and abusive than previous generations.”

Jezebel does an excellent report on how the cadre of manosphere influencers such as the Nelk Boys, Sneako, and Adin Ross-- who helped push young men to the right and push Donald Trump over the finish line and how they’ll shape politics.

[jeromeclarke107]

When you call Donald Trump out for insulting his competitors so his supporters hop in your DMs to prove your point 😂😂😂

Fr tho this is fucking hilarious I’m going to start calling everyone a cunt of cunts 😂😂

[nerd-queen13]

Hi everyone I am reblogging this because Hasan's brother Mohammed is missing. Theyev been searching for days. With continously bombing and expensive food, this is just another thing that this family can barely afford! They need to get out of Gaza. They need food and to find their brother. Please share this some more and/or donate if you can! Imagine if your brother was missing! If you didn't know where he was when there is no place at all!

Hussam Saleh has lived through days that were enough to change his life forever. Amid recent events, Hussam lost his entire family. All he has left are painful memories and the young hearts of his two nephews, whose fathers were also martyred. Suddenly, he found himself alone, bearing the burden of losing his loved ones while caring for the orphaned children who are in desperate need of someone to protect and nurture them.

Despite this unbearable loss and the lingering pain, Hussam has decided to continue fighting for a better life for his family’s children. Thanks to the incredible support from kind-hearted people, Hussam , allowing him to secure the necessary arrangements to leave Gaza with his two widowed sisters-in-law.

However, Hussam’s journey doesn’t end here. The young children still need further support to live in dignity and safety upon their arrival in Egypt. To secure their basic needs, Hussam is now aiming to raise an additional 15,000 US dollars. This will include 5,000for the two children, with 2,500 dollars per child as a coordination fee to exit Gaza to Egypt, and 10,000 dollars to support their settlement in a better place for a brief period and to start their path to stability.

Every contribution, no matter how small, will assist Hussam in this difficult journey filled with hope—for him and for innocent children who have lost everything. Let us be a support for these children and for Hussam, who has not lost hope despite all the pain.

""I am Hassan from Gaza. My only hope is to save my very sick brother and my small family and get out of Gaza, and start a new life from scratch. It is very difficult to leave your homeland, but we are forced. With your donation, every dollar can help, no matter the amount. If you do not donate, share my story and the donation link. Maybe your humanity will get us to safety 🇵🇸🇵🇸""

LISTEN! EVERYTHING HELPS. THESE PEOPLE NEED HELP AND WE ARE ALL THEY HAVE. I KNOW YOU WANT TO HELP PEOPLE. THIS WILL DIRECTLY HELP THEM. FROM THE RIVER TO THE SEA, PALESTINE WILL BE FREE! 🇵🇸🍉

https://gofund.me/737e9c2e

[batboyblog]

President Biden's plan for the first 100 days of his next term:

—Restore Roe v. Wade

—Sign John Lewis Voting Rights Act

—Expand Social Security and Medicare

—End all medical debt

—Raise the minimum wage

—Pass the PRO Act for workers

—Ban assault weapons

—Lead the world on clean energy

—Permanent child tax credit

—$35 insulin cap for all

—Build more housing

—Invest in child care and elder care

you want that? FIGHT! for it, check if you're registered to vote and then find a way to volunteer, everyone can make a difference everyone!

[jaegerisim]

Some of yall needed to hear this

Credits to @/mattxiv on Instagram

[creature-wizard]

Whatever happens, two things remain true: 1. Trump might be distancing himself from Project 2025, but his Agenda 47, which is on his website, is basically the same thing. 2. Third party voting is useless without ranked choice voting; it's mathematically impossible to elect a third party candidate. DO NOT SPLIT THE VOTE.

[boxxed-juice]

y’all are gonna vote Kamala now that she’s called for a ceasefire and has condemned Israel’s actions, right? you’re going to vote for her because she’s said she hears the calls for a ceasefire, right? or will you find another excuse to now do your civic duty for this country that directly affects you and everyone around you. i am begging you to please vote in this election because we are literally between a man who has been charged with 34 felony counts, had more on the table, and wants to become a dictator if hes elected on day one and a woman who is sane, rational, and competent at her job and supports everything this man is against. if you want Palestine to be free, you’re going to get off your ass and vote.

[bisexualseraphim]

Hi unsolicited opinion from a British person incoming. If you live in the US and you don’t vote for Kamala you’re fucking stupid and basically the entire rest of the world will want to give you a slap for passing up the opportunity to bring in one of the least dogshit front-running leftist politicians in recent history just because you don’t agree with absolutely every single little tiny thing she believes.

Here in the UK we would give almost fucking ANYTHING to have a politician who openly shows care for their country’s people even an eighth as much as Kamala does. Do NOT fuck this up.

[geminisee]

via 2rawtooreal2

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NEVER THROW YOUR VOTE AWAY!

(captions added by me)

[animentality]

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Olga Lautman at Substack:

America has entered uncharted waters. With Trump’s victory, a leader who openly disregards democratic norms and embraces authoritarian tactics will soon hold power. This forces us to confront a sobering question: what happens next? Drawing from Russia’s repression under Vladimir Putin, we can anticipate a chilling blueprint for America’s future. If history is any guide, a Russian-style system could quickly take hold, reshaping the nation in ways few could have imagined. I never imagined having to write this about America but here we are.

1. The Erosion of Democratic Institutions

Although Russia, for centuries has been plagued by corruption and repression, Putin's rise to power marked a decisive shift toward consolidating authority and dismantling even the minimal democratic structures that existed. He systematically undermined the judiciary, legislature, and media to entrench his rule, while filling key positions with loyalists—many of whom lacked experience and carried criminal backgrounds. This ensured that every lever of power served his interests rather than the public. A similar playbook will be employed in the U.S., targeting key institutions to erode checks and balances and concentrate power in the hands of a select few.

Judiciary: Judges who stand against the regime will face political attacks, threats, or attempts for outright removal. Loyalists—regardless of qualifications—will be installed to ensure the legal system becomes a tool of the regime, rubber-stamping its priorities and suppressing dissent.

Congress: Opposition voices in the legislature may be neutralized through disinformation campaigns, weaponized investigations, or targeted harassment, creating an institution that offers little resistance to executive overreach.

State Governments: Federal overreach will likely target states that resist centralized authority. This could include withholding funds, filing legal challenges, or deploying federal agencies to strong-arm compliance, undermining state autonomy.

Department of Justice (DOJ): Expect the DOJ to be weaponized to serve regime interests, targeting political opponents with investigations and prosecutions while shielding loyalists from accountability. This shift will transform the DOJ from a guardian of the rule of law into an enforcer of authoritarian priorities and a silencer of dissent.

Military: The armed forces will see an infiltration of loyalists in key leadership positions, prioritizing loyalty over expertise. The regime will co-opt the military for domestic purposes, deploying troops to intimidate or suppress opposition under the guise of maintaining order.

Law Enforcement and Intelligence Agencies: Federal agencies like the FBI and CIA may be purged of independent leadership and repurposed to surveil, intimidate, and target political adversaries, activists, and journalists while overlooking crimes committed by allies of the regime.

Election Commissions: Agencies responsible for overseeing elections will further be restructured or staffed with loyalists to undermine free and fair elections, introducing more barriers to voting, and attempting to manipulate electoral outcomes.

Through these methods, authoritarian regimes systematically seize control of institutions vital to democracy and try to quell all avenues for effective resistance.

2. Media Suppression and Propaganda

In a Russian-style system, independent media becomes an endangered species. Expect a multifaceted approach to suppressing dissent and controlling the narrative:

Hostile Takeovers: Major media outlets critical of the regime may face buyouts by regime-friendly oligarchs, hostile regulatory scrutiny, or outright closures. These takeovers allow the regime to repurpose once-trusted news sources into tools of propaganda.

Censorship: The flow of information will be tightly controlled. Social media platforms will be pressured to suppress dissenting voices through legislation targeting “disinformation,” often a thinly veiled pretext for stifling criticism. Algorithms will be manipulated to deprioritize independent reporting and amplify regime-friendly content.

State Media Expansion: Regime-funded outlets will flood the airwaves and online spaces with propaganda, often disguised as legitimate news. This will foster a cult of personality around the leader and rewrite inconvenient truths, framing opposition voices as enemies of the people.

Media Self-Censorship: A climate of fear can be just as effective as direct government intervention. Expect the regime to create an environment where media outlets self-censor to avoid legal repercussions or physical harm. Journalists may shy away from covering controversial topics or investigations to protect their staff and avoid punitive measures like fines or asset freezes.

Intimidation of Journalists: Journalists who persist in reporting the truth will face significant personal and professional risks, including:

Harassment and Threats: Online trolling, smear campaigns, and physical intimidation will be carried out to silence reporters.

Surveillance: Journalists will become targets of state surveillance, with private communications intercepted and leaked to discredit or endanger them.

Arrests and Detention: Those who cross the regime’s red lines may face arbitrary detention or charges like espionage or sedition, echoing Russia's imprisonment of investigative journalists.

License Bans and Revocations: The regime may also weaponize licensing and accreditation requirements, threatening or revoking the credentials of outlets that refuse to conform. In Russia, this tactic has driven many independent voices underground or into exile. In the U.S., similar actions could manifest as government agencies tightening broadcast or publishing regulations to target dissenters, while regime-friendly outlets flourish under lenient oversight.

The result is a chilling effect: a public increasingly deprived of accurate, independent information and a society incapable of holding power to account.

[...]

Ways to push back

While the outlook is bleak, resistance is not futile. America’s deep democratic traditions and resilient civil society offer hope, but pushing back will require collective effort and strategic action. Support independent media by subscribing to and amplifying credible outlets that challenge the regime’s narrative. Organize locally to strengthen grassroots networks that resist authoritarian policies and foster community resilience. Strengthen ties with global democratic movements to share strategies and resources. Stay informed, as understanding authoritarian tactics is key to countering them. I’ll be putting out a comprehensive resistance guide very shortly to help navigate this critical fight. Stay tuned.

Olga Lautman wrote a solid column on her Unmasking Russia Substack on how Donald Trump’s dictatorship could very well unfold, like what happened when Viktor Orbán came back to power in 2010 in Hungary.

Trump’s dictatorship plans are a solid reason for blue states to consider secession.

[charlesoberonn]

"Riddle me this, Senator Vance: You can sit on it. You'd might like to ride it. But you wouldn't like to sleep on it. What is it?"

"A couch?"

"No, Senator Vance... a horse. The answer is a horse."