#political forecasts

[redistrictgirl]

As of September 8th, 2024, Kamala Harris is slightly favored (64% chance) in the race for the presidency.

So first, let's talk about that topline.

Some other forecasts have become noticeably more bullish for former President Trump, and that's because they're looking at the polling margins decline and declaring that the convention bump is still declining. But that's not the important part of the picture. Here, my polling "bins" come in handy. Let's look at the week-by-week average of national polling:

Week of August 11th: 47.7 Harris, 45.8 Trump

Week of August 18th (week of DNC): 47.9 Harris, 43.8 Trump

Week of August 25th: 47.9 Harris, 45.0 Trump

Week of September 1st: 49.0 Harris, 46.4 Trump

Notice anything? Vice President Harris held steady through the DNC- the convention bump merely took the form of a dip in polling for Mr. Trump. My personal theory as to why that is rests in the tone of the convention - the organizers clearly attempted a big-tent strategy to reach out to disaffected Republicans. But that makes undecided voters, not new voters for Democrats. And now both candidates are snatching up undecided voters - we are officially in full gear.

Now, let's break down the closest states:

Arizona (51% chance of being won by Harris) - This state had the biggest swing this week thanks to continued gains for Mr. Trump. The fundamentals of this state are still strong for Ms. Harris, however.

Georgia (62% chance of being won by Trump) - Another Romney-Trump-Biden state, the Vice President is keeping this state close, but it may not be enough given that the Deep South isn't known for its abundance of persuadable voters. Fundamentals and polling line up well here.

North Carolina (64% chance of being won by Trump) - The polls have this state being neck-and-neck, but again, the model expects Mr. Trump to have an easier time picking up undecided voters here.

Pennsylvania (67% chance of being won by Harris) - This state has the closest polling average in our dataset, but the model seems to believe we're more likely to be looking at a polling miss like 2022's instead of 2020's.

Wisconsin (69% chance of being won by Harris) - If there's any state the polls could fumble, I personally think it's this one. I just can't buy this whiter, more rural Rust Belt state voting to the left of Michigan. But even just looking at fundamentals, Ms. Harris is still a very, very slim favorite in the Badger State.

Now for some other notable swings:

Nevada (77% chance of being won by Harris) - Another massive swing in the Southwest, but this time it's bad for the former President. The model is now pretty confident that he's locked out of around 48.5% of the state's voters, which... you know... gives a narrow path for victory. He better hope that Ms. Harris doesn't gain any further here.

Texas (96% chance of being won by Trump) - Texas has leaped back off the board for a similar reason to Nevada - all indicators suggest that Mr. Trump is approaching 50% of the vote in this state. It would probably take a genuine polling miss in the Vice President's favor to make the state winnable.

So where does this leave each candidate? The Rust Belt continues to get more important for Ms. Harris, and Mr. Trump still needs Georgia and North Carolina to come through for him. So on a macro level, outside of the Southwest getting weird, things have actually been fairly unsurprising, which you'd expect from a short week. Let's see if there's a shakeup after the debate and in the coming months.

[jadagul]

I have my first officially published opinion piece out today, a short bit on election forecasting. Please go read it (1) because I think the point I'm making is important and (2) so they think I'm cool and let me write more stuff.

I decided to pitch a bomb into the Grimmer-Silver controversy on whether election forecasts are valuable when we don't have enough information for them to pass a hypothesis test.

Because the piece is short, I wasn't able to detour into the ways this ties into bad publish health decisions; but I think the Grimmer perspective here is very similar to the perspective that argued we knew masks didn't work early in the covid pandemic, or that vaccines didn't reduce transmission, or resisted a lot of moves toward air filtration.

[dkaufmandevelopment]

📊 Economists Warn of New Inflation Hazards Post-Election

As we approach the presidential election, economists are raising concerns about potential inflation hazards. While inflation has cooled due to higher interest rates, supply chain improvements, and an increased workforce, the policies of the next administration could significantly impact its trajectory.

Key Insights:

- Trump's Policies: Broad tariffs, worker deportations, and pressure on the Federal Reserve could reignite inflation. Potential tax cuts and deficit increases may further drive inflation.

- Harris's Policies: Focus on home construction and anti-price gouging measures. Aims to offset spending with revenue increases to manage inflation.

Economists caution that Trump's approach may destabilize the economy if unchecked. As real estate developers and investors, staying informed about these potential changes is crucial for strategic planning and investment decisions.

#Economy #Inflation #RealEstate #InvestmentOpportunities #Election2024 

What are your thoughts on the potential inflation hazards post-election? Let’s discuss!

Stay informed with the latest economic insights and trends! 📈✨

[boag]

I would put that gift of prophecy meme here but I do think anybody with more than two brain cells to rub together could’ve easily predicted this .

[quaranmine]

Happy Eclipse!

I SAW IT, BABEY!!!

Woke up at 6:30 am this morning, looked at every weather model and source I could fine, and took a gamble trying to find the clearest skies. It paid off! Almost completely clear, 4 mins 8 seconds of totality. Beautiful setting. No traffic problems on the way up or way back home.

It was....seriously the coolest thing I've EVER seen. Idk how to really describe it. It looked like it was fake, like it belonged straight out of a sci-fi movie but it's natural. It went dark like the night. The birds stopping chirping. We could see STARS!

Just stunning experience.

^ I didn't spend much time photographing because I wanted to stay in the moment, so here's my "I was there" photo!!

(my spot I chose)

[leslie-redirects-here]

Well, that's a thing that happened. And is going to happen.

Anyway, to hopefully help with comfort and an action plan, today only* through November 7th I'm running a 75% off sale on the tarot readings I think will be the most helpful. (I would've just made them 99% off or free or something, but 75% is the biggest discount Etsy allows.)

2025 Forecast Tarot Reading

Family Week Ahead Tarot Reading

Next Month Tarot Reading

2024 Tarot Reading

Ancestor Contact Tarot Reading

Listen, guys. We will get through this. We'll get through it together. I just have to keep reminding myself of that, but we're all going to make it if we have to drag each other.

*doing readings today turned out to be so helpful for me and the people who let me do readings for them that I'm extending the sale, possibly for a few days

[dad-friend]

ok listen. i know hbomberguy said he doesnt wanna become the type of youtube who spends their time doing drama videos or ruining ppl careers but like. if somebody doesnt start doing crazy detailed research on ryan hall, yall then i will

[futurefatum]

TODAY 10/17 Karma will prevail. Are you ready? (Tone: 310)

Posted October 17th, 2024 by @JoniPatryVedicAstrologer Video Summary: In this video, Joanie Patri delves into the astrological significance of the October 17th full moon, which coincides with intense planetary alignments. She highlights how this full moon in Aries, under the influence of Vedic sidereal astrology, reveals hidden truths and intensifies global events, particularly around politics…

[wonder-worker]

Didn't edward iv leave his brother Richard in lots of financial difficulties though?

No, he did not. I really don't know where this myth has originated from other than the persistent need to victimize Richard.

Firstly, Edward IV didn't leave Richard anything. Whatever he left was for his own son and heir, Richard's nephew, who Richard usurped.

Secondly, Edward IV was literally one of the rare few medieval kings of England to die solvent. He had managed to break the vicious cycle of plummeting debt and inefficiency that had plagued pretty much every single ruler till then. It doesn't really matter how much money the crown actually had left at the time of his death*, because the fact that he died solvent meant that whoever his successor was (in this case, Richard III), they were going to begin their reign with a financial advantage that no English monarch had enjoyed for the past 200 years. I don't know Richard's fans have convinced themselves that he inherited financial difficulties instead.

As stated by David Horspool, Richard's own historian:

"(Richard III) would try to differentiate himself from his brother, whose ‘unlawful invencions and inordinate covetise, ayenst the lawe of this roialme’ he would later denounce in an Act of Parliament. In fact Edward had managed to set royal finances back on an even keel after the disastrous waste and inefficiency of Henry VI (and all former kings post Henry II), Richard was, initially, the beneficiary of the better practise instituted by Edward IV.”

(The contemporary Croyland Chronicle mentions a main reason that Richard was better prepared to defend his kingship was "because of the treasure which he had in hand—since what King Edward had left behind had not yet all been consumed". They may have exaggerated the money Edward left behind, but either way it shows how contemporaries were aware of Richard's comparative advantages. It's highly ironic that what should have been used to uphold Edward's son was now being used to uphold his son's usurper instead).

Thirdly, Edward IV had presided over a highly effective and innovative combination of financial policies. These included the elevation/increase of royal chamber finance, the enlargement of the crown lands (Steven Gunn calls it "the most extensive royal demesne in medieval English History"), and an increase in royal feudal rights towards the end of his reign, among others**. Most importantly of all, he was actually successful, meaning that whoever followed him would have the huge benefit of having his established and well-attested precedent to continue from. Indeed, Charles Ross has noted how "Henry VII had the great advantage of being able to build upon the foundations laid by his father-in-law". Richard III, who seized the throne just a few months later, would have had the same advantages, as Horspool also notes.

Richard III, in fact, seems to have (temporarily) reversed some of his brother's well-established policies which could be used to gain money. Eg: he abolished benevolences; and he repealed Edward IV's newly established wardships and marriages act in the Duchy of Lancaster "notwithstanding that he conceiveth the said act to be to his great profit … having more affection to the common weal of this his realm and of his subjects than to his own singular profit". If you deliberately reverse policies with immense potential for revenue-raising, I don't know how you can then go on to complain that your brother left you nothing.

In conclusion: no, Edward IV did not leave Richard in financial difficulties. If anything, he left Richard with financial advantages that no king had had in over 200 years.

(Also, just to clarify: the Woodvilles did not steal the treasury. We know for a fact that Elizabeth Woodville did not have any money in sanctuary. The story of a theft was only mentioned by Mancini and either originated in gossip or, more likely, from Ricardian propaganda aiming to vilify them in 1483 by positioning them against the crown.)

*We know for a fact that Edward IV died solvent, but from what I understand, the exact money he had is impossible to know because of his missing chamber records. Contemporaries like Croyland did believe he had substantial money and treasure; on the other hand, Rosemary Horrox has analyzed how his cash reserves were probably relatively low due to international conflicts the previous two years. Either way, like I said, the main thing is that he was the first king in over 200 years to die solvent, which was massively advantageous to his successor. **While his policies were clearly innovative, they weren't all completely original. However, their combination certainly was; they were modified to actually work better; and they were initiated from the beginning of his first/second reign and widespread across the royal lands (rather than in smaller pockets), meaning that they were clear systematic policies. They were also, like I mentioned, actually successful - meaning that they would be the proven precedent that his successors would turn to.

[sonic-wildfire]

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[redistrictgirl]

Noticed people reblogging my presidential forecast two days after polls closed. I appreciate your faith in me even if it defies logic and chronology.

[dkaufmandevelopment]

The End of an Unprecedented Campaign: Trump vs. Harris

Tonight marks the conclusion of one of the most unprecedented and invective-filled presidential campaigns in modern history. The 2024 race has seen dramatic twists, including the return of 78-year-old Donald Trump despite two impeachments, four indictments, and his new status as a convicted felon. This was followed by the sudden departure of President Joe Biden, who was run off by his own party after a botched debate and a firestorm of negative media coverage.

Facing a new rival in Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump has delivered months of disjointed, hours-long speeches filled with malapropisms and racial and ethnic insults. If elected to a second term, Trump has threatened to prosecute his political enemies and deploy the military in Democratic cities to target illegal immigrants. His allies have plans to dismantle many federal agencies and regulations, filling powerful posts with inexperienced loyalists. Trump also pledges to escalate the trade war with China and negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, where Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians.

Harris, on the other hand, has focused her campaign on addressing alleged price gouging, reducing taxes, and helping with childcare costs. She and her fellow Democrats warn that beyond the radical policy shifts planned by Trump, the very essence of a 248-year-old democracy is at stake, and the whole world is watching.

Join the conversation and share your thoughts on this historic election. What do you think the future holds for the United States?

[unrealcities]

After a truly ridiculous amount of comedy from UK Visas and Immigration shit has finally gotten real, so if any of you have advice or recommendations for a girl from the tropics moving to the UK for a postgraduate degree, or for moving abroad for studies more generally, it would delight me to hear it!

[trendynewsnow]

The Evolution and Impact of Election Forecasts

In 2008, Nate Silver revolutionized the world of political analysis with his groundbreaking election forecast model, a tool that was not only novel but also impressively accurate. His work earned him a spot on Time magazine’s prestigious list of the 100 most influential people the following year. Since then, the landscape of election forecasting has transformed dramatically. Today, such forecasts…

[quillsword]

Is Harris Going to Win?

Probably not. We won’t know until all those votes get counted. So VOTE! You are one of those ‘give us the details’ people, aren’t you? Fine, let’s break the race down so far: Polls Real Clear Politics is our aggregator of choice. Habit is the main reason but you can call it ‘consistency’ if that sounds all sciency to you. We’re going to go fast through this first part so you may want to look…

[futurefatum]

Presidential Election Prediction November 2024

Astrologer predicts Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election based on Jupiter’s position in her chart. Will Trump drop out? #Election2024 #Astrology

Posted August 3rd, 2024 by @sacredairwithalydunne ABOUT THIS VIDEO: The video explores the astrology of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, focusing on the natal charts of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The astrologer analyzes their planetary placements and how they align with the fixed stars, using astrological research dating back to 1972. The video makes the bold prediction that Kamala…