#as promised from the latest poll results!

[o0kawaii0o]

Baby I'm yours 🎶

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Dean Obeidallah at The Dean's Report:

No, Donald Trump is not “flip-flopping” on abortion as some corporate media headlines are claiming. But the silver lining to this debate is that it elevates the issue of reproductive freedom to the forefront in the closing months of the campaign—reminding people Trump was “honored” to “kill” Roe v. Wade and that his abortion bans are literally killing women. What sparked the headlines about Trump’s so-called “flip-flop” on abortion was when Trump first stated last week that he opposed the GOP enacted six week abortion ban in Florida. Trump told Fox News this six-week ban was a “mistake,” adding, "I think six weeks, you need more time.” However, after the pro-forced birth activists and Christian nationalists expressed outrage, Trump reversed course, saying he would vote no on the proposed Florida ballot measure that would repeal the state's six-week abortion ban.

Trump did not “evolve” on the issue of reproductive freedom. In reality, he has no core beliefs other than racism and sexism. The convicted felon simply sees the same polls and election results we have when it comes to abortion. Trump gets that a recent Gallup poll found only 12% of Americans support the GOP’s total abortion bans—while 85% of Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or certain circumstances.  Add to that, a recent CNN poll found nearly two thirds of Americans oppose the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.

Trump simply wanted to appear more reasonable on abortion given new polls show Americans overwhelmingly trust VP Harris to handle the issue of reproductive freedom--which has contributed to a record gender gap.  This explains Trump’s latest proposal regarding in vitro fertilization (IVF) that he claims will force insurance companies to pay for the costs of in vitro fertilization (IVF.) I’m sure we will see this “amazing” IVF plan the same time we see Trump’s “great” healthcare plan that he repeatedly promised since 2015 he would be unveiling in “two weeks.” Never happened.

Trump’s new IVF is not even original--he stole it from the Democrats. In June, Senate Democrats proposed legislation known as the Right to IVF Act that would have both enshrined into federal law a right for individuals to receive IVF treatment and would’ve mandated coverage for fertility treatments under health insurance plans. In other words, what Trump says he now wants to do. However, that legislation was blocked by all but two Senate Republicans included Trump’s own running mate, JD Vance.

What Trump and the GOP don’t get—or care to grasp—is that stripping women of a 50-year constitutional right to reproductive freedom is not a political issue, it’s personal. In fact, nothing is more personal than Republican laws that force women against their will to carry a fetus to term. And that is exactly what Republicans have done in 14 states they control with their total abortion bans that in essence mean on day one of pregnancy, a women’s uterus becomes property of the GOP.  (An additional eight GOP controlled states have also implemented abortion bans still far more restrictive than under Roe v. Wade.) These abortion bans—as studies have now detailed—are literally killing women. One study found that “women in states with abortion bans are nearly three times more likely to die during pregnancy, childbirth or soon after giving birth.” A July study found that “the highest rates of maternal mortality can be found in the Mississippi Delta, which includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee.” These states—as well as Texas and others--all have extreme abortion bans that have resulted in preventing women from receiving an abortion to address a women’s health needs. Rather, a woman must be on the doorstep of death before doctors are permitted by law to perform an abortion to save her life.

Abortion bans are harming and killing women, point blank. These have the imprimatur of Trump-appointed justices and GOP legislators across the nation, along with Trump himself.

[seyaryminamoto]

Fic-to-Art #43: Azula vs. Unnuaq

Not too surprising that my latest prompt, "epic", would yield this particular result in the poll, considering this scene happened quite a short time ago. Here's our Patreon artwork for the past month, I took a bit longer to post it due to Glaze and Nightshade taking too much time, but here we are.

I've said it a few times, but... this was goddamn cathartic to draw, not because of the scene itself, but because I channeled my emotions regarding real life events into how I depicted Azula's rage. I very much worked on this while watching from afar as my country fights for its freedom and finally is in a promising position to seize it, even if all attempts are being blocked by the tyrannical government in charge, unsurprisingly. So... I find myself more than a little spread out lately, my mind all over the place, eager for any tidbit of news that tells me it's finally ended for the better. It hasn't yet. Only time will tell what the outcome of this particular mess will be...

It's that much nicer to actually know the script and be aware of where things are going, huh? Gladiator's going into a pretty high tension stage, and we're on our way to the story's biggest climax. May my country find a conclusion that fills me with the same hope I can nowadays write into Gladiator's upcoming chapters... and may you all enjoy this piece as well, intense and wild as it is.

If you'd like to be part of the creation of these pieces, a $1 pledge on Patreon is enough to make you eligible for suggesting prompts and voting for the monthly artwork, as well as reading Gladiator snippets 6 days in advance!

[wishful-thinking64]

HH Rewrite Related Post #04

The final results from the 2nd poll are in and the winner was... 🥁 🥁 🥁

Hell's number one porn star, Angel Dust! While he was my favorite character during the pilot days of Hazbin Hotel, I wouldn't say he is now as a lot of what made him a like-able asshole character in the pilot isn't there in the series. My grievances aside, let's get to Angel's character sheet! ________________ [CURRENT NAME] 🞂 ANGEL DUST BUT DOES OCCASIONALLY GO BY ANTHONY & ANTONIA. 🞂 Has basically been going by this ever since he arrived in Hell as he refused to continue to being a mobster, quickly taking to sex work to make quick cash and get to live a more “exhilarating” life.

[FORMER NAME] 🞂 ANTHONY TARANTELLA. 🞂 The name Anthony means Priceless One and Praiseworthy whereas his last name is Italian for Tarantula and, yes, Tarantella is an actual last name that Italians can have albeit an uncommon one.

[D.O.B + D.O.D] 🞂 BORN APRIL 1ST, 1913. 🞂 DIED DECEMBER 24TH, 1947.

[AGE]🞂 BIOLOGICALLY 34. 🞂 CHRONOLOGICALLY 111.

[GENDER & SEX]🞂 BORN MALE. 🞂 STARTED IDENTIFYING  AS GENDER FLUID BACK IN THE 90S. [SEXUALITY] 🞂 STILL GAY.

[ETHNICITY & NATIONALITY] 🞂 AN ITALIAN WHO WAS BORN AND RAISED AS AN AMERICAN CITIZEN. 🞂 I’ve written for his parents and older brother to be Italian immigrants who came to America looking for safety as tensions between Turkey and Italy during this time were high due to the war and there was a lot of social outrage within their own country during the early 1910s. I imagine that Angel never got to visit his home country which is something that deeply upsets him as he knows that he’ll never be able to see Italy’s beauty outside of photographs.

[SOCIAL STATUS] 🞂 CONTRACTED SINNER. 🞂 I feel like Sinner’s who have signed soul contracts would be below regular Sinners as they aren’t seen as someone else's property and still have control of their own life. Cause let’s be real, Sinners who’ve sold their souls away are often treated as slaves.

[CRIMES COMMITTED IN LIFE FROM LEAST TO MOST OFFENSIVE] 🞂 TAX FRAUD. 🞂 THEFT. 🞂 B&E (Breaking and Entering.) 🞂 SMUGGLING. 🞂 MONEY LAUNDERING. 🞂 SUBSTANCE ABUSE OF BOTH ALCOHOL & DRUGS. 🞂 EXTORTION (mainly opted to use threats but would easily resort to using violence if threats didn’t work.) 🞂 INFILTRATING LEGIT/GENUINE BUSINESSES. 🞂 FRAUD IN GENERAL (specifically counterfeiting, check fraud, mail fraud, securities fraud, and loan sharking.) 🞂 TRAFFICKING (typically involved in drug trafficking though he’d be lying if he said he wasn’t involved in any type of human trafficking at all.) 🞂 KIDNAPPING. 🞂 TORTURE. 🞂 MURDER.

[SINS COMMITTED IN LIFE FROM LEAST TO GREATEST] 🞂 LUST. 🞂 WRATH. 🞂 GREED. 🞂 GLUTTONY (I put Gluttony as the number one sin since I’m still having Angel still die from a drug overdose just not from PCP.)

[OWNER OF HIS SOUL]🞂 THE DEPRAVED OVERLORD OF LUST, VALENTINO. 🞂 I’m unsure of how the show is going to explain the reason behind Angel Dust signing his soul away to Valentino but I’m having it be because he was ultimately promised protection from other demons as anyone who decided to mess with him would have to deal with Val. Alas, that doesn’t mean Angel is safe from Valentino.

[PROFESSIONS] 🞂 MAIN JOB: PORN STAR. 🞂 SECONDARY JOB: MODEL. 🞂 He does mainly work for Valentino as the man owns his soul although he does work for Velvette once in a while and is even regarded as one of her top models.

[CORE PERSONALITY TRAITS] 🞂 ALLURING. 🞂 BOLD. 🞂 COCKY. 🞂 CRUDE. 🞂 DEFENSIVE. 🞂 FLEXIBLE. 🞂 LAID BACK. 🞂 OPEN-MINDED. 🞂 OPPORTUNISTIC. 🞂 PROMISCUOUS. 🞂 SNARKY. 🞂 TALKATIVE. 🞂 VAIN. 🞂 WITTY.

[RELATIONS TO THE VEES] 🞂 VARIES DEPENDING ON THE PERSON. 🞂 Angel’s relationship with the Vees truly is a mixed bag as he hates his boss but with Vox he’s on neutral ground. He likes Velvette as she acts as his (better) second boss and number one gossip buddy and the latest addition of the group, Vanitas, is the one he gets along with the most thanks to them being the most reasonable and level headed.

[REASON FOR CHECKING INTO THE HAZBIN HOTEL] 🞂 HIS LAST APARTMENT GOT DESTROYED IN THE MOST RECENT EXTERMINATION AND HE NEEDS THAT RENT FREE ROOM. 🞂 It totally isn't tied with him deeply missing his younger twin sister and secretly hoping that the hotel actually works so he can be reunited with her.

[THOUGHTS ON THE HAZBIN HOTEL & IT’S STAFF] 🞂 THINKS THE HOTEL’S PLAN WILL FAIL. 🞂 HAS VARYING THOUGHTS ON THE STAFF. 🞂 The staff member Angel Dust was the most positive/receptive towards upon his arrival at the hotel was Lavanya. It wasn’t because she was the Princess of Hell (though that certainly plays a factor into it) but because of her optimistic outlook for her people. She genuinely has hope that some of them can change their ways and ascend to the pearly gates. He thinks it's sweet despite it being foolish in nature. He’s pretty neutral on the rest of the staff minus Valoris. He does not like her and she does not like him one bit. _______________

That's the core information for Angel Dust and I used he/him pronouns for Angel throughout the character sheet because genderfluid people tend to use one set of pronouns at a time and not multiple pronouns at once like a lot of people seem to believe. Years before the pilot Angel Dust was going to be gender fluid until Vivziepop thought that information didn't fit anymore. Also the reason I said I wouldn't have Angel pass from PCP is because while PCP was discovered in the year 1926, it wasn't made aware of the public until the year 1956 under the name of Sernyl where it was marketed as a type of anesthetic. In short, there's no fucking way Angel died from a drug overdose on PCP. Another instance where Viv didn't do the bare minimum of research because that information about PCP took me all of two minutes to find and that was solely because I wanted the exact year from the 50s where it was introduced otherwise it was a twenty second Google search. In any case, next I'll do Valoris' character sheet since she got 2nd place in this poll. Thank you to everyone who participated in the poll and I hope you guys liked Angel's character sheet!

[t1meslayer]

Busy with important family events over the next couple of days, and so I thought it would be good to get a day-and-date release for this Debrief on the latest entry in my Sapphic Valley series, "How You Get The Girl." Be sure to read the story before jumping in!

Did you do it? Did you read the story?

Alright, I'm trusting you. Go ahead and hit that 'Keep Reading' button you scamp.

It only seems appropriate to start this Debrief off by addressing the elephant in the room. I haven't posted anything in over a month, and "By Moonlight" came about a month after its predecessor, the conclusion to "Stone-Cold Lovers."

Work, naturally, has been a major factor.

You can see me talk about that almost two weeks ago in this Tumblr post I made about writing in a coffee shop, which came weeks after I actually started writing during a trip to a friend's house.

===

Side note:

Just wanted to take a moment and acknowledge my beautiful Haley and Emily keychains. My friend who's responsible for the affairs of one ghostly farmer named Jizzabelle (Gisabelle to the laymen) got them for me! Only appropriate after I commissioned some art of her and Abigail.

Emily was my first Stardew wife, and Haley currently holds the biggest place in my heart. They make a lovely duo!

And I'll avoid any sister-wife jokes

===

While I've had some other projects like Zine writing to take care of, work and life can't explain the full absence.

The best way I can think to explain things is that:

I had the general writer's block, and

Despite the best intentions and advice of my irl friends and online pals like @alchemicallymoon and @duelbraids, I couldn't force myself to "break" that block by just... Writing something else.

This is entirely the result of my own psychosis. I have a tendency to carefully plot things out and impose a timetable that really doesn't need to exist. When I feel the cause is righteous enough, it's hard to get around that. In this case, I knew I needed to get my poll-winning idea out after dawdling for holidays like Valentine's Day, and then I knew I only wanted to post one more story before jumping on a very special event for my upcoming 30th AO3 post.

Thus, here we are: arbitrarily forcing myself into a spiral of writer's block misery because of a silly promise on Tumblr and my own sense of ordered chaos.

At the very least, this meant it's coming out not long after my AO3 pal InsertACatchyPennameHere also emerged from the woodwork to tell me they're working on something INSPIRED by my four-person friend group farm adaptations.

Much love to them, wherever they may be.

I'll probably start writing more eclectically now that my shoulders are unweighed, but don't expect my next publication to hit until I'm finished working on teasing the big event. All you Pokemon fans better get hype!

And oh how sweet this publication feels. Between my great set of recent ceramics, the figure drawing class I've been attending, and creative writing, I've felt more fulfilled than ever.

You're here to talk about Stardew, though. So let us talk.

This idea began less with any one event as it did a desire to advance the Alexis/Haley relationship, and Haley's characterization in particular. It was always going to end with watercolor painting reference, but 2 Willow Lane was what I really wanted to dig into.

As I see it, a lot of what keeps people invested in Stardew when its comfy vibes becoming routine is the air of mystery in Eric Barone's worldbuilding. Haley and Emily's parents being some world-traveling duo who left their home in the siblings' care for who knows how long (and who knows how many times over their lifetime) really piqued my interest. So much so that the new writing challenge I set for myself in "How You Get The Girl" was crafting a particularly long set of descriptions that emphasize how overwhelming the parents' influence feels — without creating an impenetrable wall of text.

Hopefully I succeeded in that. Let me know!

I tried to include some vaguely real world-adjacent references into that description of the house, as happens with the magical-realism world of Stardew Valley. For example:

The computer sitting next to their bonsai tree is an iMac G3, the kind of old 'futuristic' tech that my dad loves!

A Speedwell refrigerator is based on even more vintage tech, the Mayflower fridge, but named after a different ship ridden by Pilgrims coming to America.

That city that the family visited in an old photograph with a "monument of arching, interlocking steel" is, of course, Paris — with the statue bookends referencing any number of statues in the Louvre.

Haley's FAD magazine could be referencing any number of publications, but Vogue is probably the closest analogue to what I imagine her reading.

Furthermore, I took some notes on describing the home's layout off of my sister's apartment building, and I asked my bestie @trybard for input on what kind of hanging plant should be used in the transitional hallway. Hanging pothos, philodendron, and spider plants were the three options provided, and my response was appropriate:

They know so much about plants.

Go bug them about it.

I drew on other friends' knowledge to help decorate the house. Specifically, I asked one of my witchiest friends what kinds of protective wards someone like Emily would leave around doorways and windows. She had... A lot of reference material.

I picked Hazel given it purportedly "protects against evil; encourages abundance and inspiration." I also picked Amethyst as one of Emily's loved gifts, one that purportedly "absorbs negative energy, promotes harmony."

My witchy friend is the same one who provided the TikTok that I referenced in my advertisement post:

Perhaps the most important thing about 2 Willow Lane was the recurring motif of Barbie's Dream House.

As a surface-level reference, I think the groundwork is clear. Blondie's love of fashion and general queen bee demeanor fits comparisons to Barbie well, and she lives in a big ol' house full of stuff. We all saw Greta Gerwig's Barbie movie last year. It's still in the cultural zeitgeist.

I'm hip with the kids.

Yet, early on I also tried to make it clear that if this is a "dream" house, it's neither Haley's nor Emily's dream. Haley is a Barbie in that stereotypical sense, but also there's much to be mined from the analogy of a sort of powerless doll in an immutable house, constrained by social obligation to her family rather than literal plastic and stickers.

The cold open of Jodi and Sam was meant to stand alone, but in execution I also think drawing Kent's absence into the conversation makes for a more thematically rich comparison to these sisters who appear to have themselves more put together.

My beta reader said this wound up being one of my stronger stories because of how all of that intertwined, which I appreciated given how down on myself I was following the whole writer's block thing.

But also.

Also.

Alexis gets to be horny. She's hitting on lonely MILFs and watching girls shake their asses to the tune of bad reality TV.

We love a buff dommy mommy farm girl in this house.

Haley is probably horny too, she just doesn't realize it yet. For now I think it's fun enough to play into her being coy about building excuses for Alexis to come over, and then getting incensed when Emily barges in on their private time meant to learn more about this farm girl she just can't get out of her head.

===

Fun fact:

Every story in this series is named after a Taylor Swift song, but I know next-to nothing about her discography. All of them are suggestions by my friend whose house I was at when starting this story — the same one who controls Gardenia on the farm.

While I went with "How You Get The Girl," her alternative suggestion was "The Man."

===

All that w|w talk aside, I also want to give Sam the loveable idiot a shoutout. Had to do a fair bit of research into how skateboards are constructed for his failed ollie, and I slipped in a reference to shitty old technology that's exclusively for my beta reader to enjoy.

I also tried doing some agricultural research to figure out how the folks at Kevin Farm could have grown cucumbers so there'd be a jar of legitimate pickles... But that was getting too in the weeds.

Insert laugh track here

Decided to just go with pickled artichoke hearts to save everyone a lot of trouble.

And where does "Kevin Farm" come from, you may be asking yourself. Or the fabulous "Kevin's Special" with its definitely not innuendo tagline.

That story will have to wait for another day, my friends.

[litgarchive]

Endless scroll problem: The poll

I had updated the UI to the latest version, I have tested Day 2, and it's ready for uploading to itch.io, except for one teeny-tiny little thing…

The game is in infinite scroll mode. Previously, the previous scene is removed from view, so it has minimal scrolling involved to get to the choices below.

I have already reached out to the dev, and while waiting for a response, I am stuck with this. I had promised a release within the first week of June. However, if I do wait the update will be pushed back definitely; release will depend on how quickly I could deploy said fix.

[satureja13]

Here are the results of the Poll about Vlad’s eyes.

Surprisingly a vast majority likes him better with normal eyes! But, as promised, I won’t change him.

It’s really intresting for me to learn what you would prefer. The results of the polls tend to differ a lot from your comments and likes.

And for the first time in our polls so far, we had more likes that votes! ^^’ I think that happened because the poll wasn’t on top of the post and also hidden behind the ‘keep reading’. So that shows how many of you really ‘keep reading’ ;)

you rock! 👩‍🎤

From the Beginning   ~  Underwater Love   ~  Latest

[mariacallous]

Turkey's not the only T country having an important election, THAILAND! had its election the vote count is underway we'll see if there will be another Shinawatra Prime Minster, if the Military will allow it, etc

BANGKOK, May 14 (Reuters) - Thailand's political opposition looked on course for a huge win in Sunday's election, as voters turned out in force behind two parties promising big changes and an end to a decade of conservative government led or backed by the military.

The Pheu Thai Party and the liberal Move Forward party surged ahead with more than 90% of the votes counted, but are far from certain to lead the next government, with parliamentary rules written by the military after its 2014 coup skewed in its favour.

To rule, the opposition parties will need to strike deals, including with members of a junta-appointed Senate that sided with military parties and gets to vote on who becomes prime minister and form a government.

Sunday's election was the latest bout in a long-running battle for power between Pheu Thai, the populist juggernaut of the billionaire Shinawatra family, and a nexus of old money, conservatives and military with influence over key institutions at the heart of two decades of turmoil.

But the stunning performance by Move Forward as it rides a wave of support from young voters will test the resolve of Thailand's establishment and ruling parties, after it came close to a clean sweep of the capital Bangkok, campaigning on a platform of reform of institutions and a dismantling of business monopolies.

Its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, a 43-year-old former executive of a ride-hailing app, described the outcome as "sensational" and vowed to stay true to his party's values when forming a government.

"It will be anti-dictator-backed, military-backed parties, for sure," he told reporters. "I think it's safe to assume that minority government is no longer possible here in Thailand."

He said he remained open to an alliance with Pheu Thai, but has set his sights set on the premiership.

"If Move Forward comes in first, we will form a government and I will be prime minister," Pita added.

MAJOR BLOW

The preliminary results will be a crushing blow for the military and its allies, with the Palang Pracharat, the political vehicle of the former junta, and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha's United Thai Nation, seemingly headed for a big defeat.

Prayuth, a retired general who led the last coup, had campaigned on continuity after nine years in charge, warning of instability from a change in government.

On Sunday, Prayuth slipped away quietly from his party headquarters, where there were few supporters to be seen.

A handful of staff sat beside plates of uneaten food and a giant television screen was showing a live speech by Move Forward's leader.

"I hope the country will be peaceful and prosper," he told reporters. "I respect democracy and the election. Thank you."

The early results were expected for Pheu Thai, which together with previous incarnations dissolved by courts has dominated Thailand elections, winning most votes in every ballot since 2001, including two landslide victories.

Founded by the polarising self-exiled tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra, Pheu Thai remains hugely popular among the working classes and was banking on being swept back to power by nostalgia from a raft of populist policies, like cheap healthcare, micro-loans and generous farming subsidies.

Thaksin's daughter Paetongtarn, 36, has been tipped to follow in her father's footsteps and become prime minister.

She said she was happy for Move Forward, but it was too soon to discuss alliances.

"The voice of the people is most important," she said.

Move Forward saw a late-stage rally in opinion polls and was betting on 3.3 million first-time voters getting behind its liberal agenda, including plans to weaken the military's political role and amend a strict law on royal insults that critics say is used to stifle dissent.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, said Move Forward's surge demonstrated a major shift in Thai politics.

"Pheu Thai fought the wrong war. Pheu Thai fought the populism war that it already won," he said.

"Move Forward takes the game to the next level with institutional reform. That's the new battleground in Thai politics. ..And the votes today are a testament to Move Forward's forward-looking programme for Thailand."

[socialvate]

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[newstfionline]

Monday, November 18, 2024

The ‘super year’ of elections has been super bad for incumbents as voters punish them in droves (AP) Whether on the left or the right, regardless of how long they’ve been in power, sitting governments around the world have been drubbed this year by disgruntled voters in what has been called the “super year” for elections. Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election was just the latest in a long line of losses for incumbent parties in 2024, with people in some 70 countries accounting for about half the world’s population going to the polls. Issues driving voter discontent have varied widely, though there has been almost universal malaise since the COVID-19 pandemic as people and businesses struggle to get back on their feet while facing stubbornly high prices, cash-strapped governments and a surge in migration. “There’s an overall sense of frustration with political elites, viewing them as out of touch, that cuts across ideological lines,” said Richard Wike, director of global attitudes research at the Pew Research Center.

40 million people under red flag warnings in the Northeast due to fire danger (ABC News) More than 40 million people are under red flag warnings across eight states as the fire danger remains elevated in the Northeast. Winds may gust up to 35 mph with relative humidity levels as low as 15% to 30% in the region. The soil remains dry with ongoing and worsening drought conditions. While Sunday brings a slight improvement in fire weather conditions, the overall fire risk will continue into next week across much of the Northeast.

Trump’s Cabinet Picks, Panned in Washington, Thrill Many of His Voters (NYT) To his detractors, President-elect Donald J. Trump’s cabinet looks like a rogues’ gallery of people with dubious credentials and questionable judgment. His supporters see something different. “It’s a masterpiece,” Eileen Margolis, 58, who lives in Weston, Fla., and owns a tattoo business, said of Mr. Trump’s cabinet picks unveiled over the past week. “If it was a painting, it would be a Picasso.” Democrats, and even some Republicans, worry that these nominees for top positions in government are inexperienced, conflicted and potentially reckless. But in interviews with almost two dozen Trump voters around the country, his supporters were more likely to describe them as mavericks and reformers recruited to deliver on Mr. Trump’s promise to shake up Washington.

Borderless Europe fights brain drain as talent heads north (Reuters) Until recently aerospace engineer Pedro Monteiro figured he’d join many of his peers moving from Portugal to its richer European neighbours in the quest for a better-paid job once he completes his master’s degree in Lisbon. But tax breaks proposed by Portugal’s government for young workers—up to a temporary 100% income tax exemption in some cases—plus help with housing are making him think twice. Portugal is the latest country in Europe to seek to tackle a brain drain holding back its economy. Tax breaks for young workers in the budget currently going through parliament will take effect next year and could benefit as many as 400,000 young people at an annual cost of 525 million euros. Talent flight to wealthier countries of the north is a problem Portugal shares with several others in southern and central Europe, as workers take advantage of freedom of movement rules within the trade bloc. Countries including Italy have tried other schemes to counter the flight, with mixed results. About 2.3 million people born in Portugal, or 23% of its population, currently live abroad, according to Portugal’s Emigration Observatory. That includes 850,000 Portuguese nationals aged 15-39, or about 30% of young Portuguese and 12.6% of its working-age population.

In France, Europe’s last flock of military carrier pigeons (NZZ/Switzerland) Military pigeons once saved lives. In the darkest days of World War I, French troops encircled at Verdun sent a plea for aid via carrier pigeon. The help that arrived enabled some to escape. In the era of cell phones and satellite communications, sending messages by bird seems an anachronism. But in part to honor those pigeons’ past service, the French army continues to maintain a small 150-bird flock that is Europe’s last unit of feathered soldiers. The birds are now largely used in competitions and commemorative events, but could fly into service if needed. China is the only other country with an army unit tasked with training carrier pigeons, which are to be deployed in case of technological or other communications breakdowns. These birds may even have been used for espionage purposes in India. It is possible that the day of the military pigeon is not altogether past.

Biden approves Ukraine’s use of long-range U.S. weapons inside Russia, reversing policy (Washington Post) President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use a powerful American long-range weapon for limited strikes inside Russia in response to North Korea’s deployment of thousands of troops to aid Moscow’s war effort, according to two senior U.S. officials. The easing of restrictions on allowing Kyiv to use the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, to hit targets inside Russia is a significant reversal in U.S. policy. One U.S. official said the move is in part aimed at deterring Pyongyang from sending more troops. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un must understand that the initial deployment has been a “costly” mistake, said the official. The initial Ukrainian effort is expected to focus on and around the Kursk region, though it could expand.

Russia grinds deeper into Ukraine after 1,000 days of grueling war (AP) When Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022, the conventional wisdom was that the capital, Kyiv, would soon fall and the rest of the country wouldn’t last long against a much larger enemy. Instead, it was that narrative that quickly collapsed. The Ukrainian army proved it could slow the advance of Russia’s forces and, if not drive them out completely, then—with enough support from the West—at least forestall defeat. But nearly three years later, the outlook is again grim. Russia is expending huge amounts of weaponry and human life to make small-but-steady territorial gains to the nearly one-fifth of Ukraine it already controls. Ukraine, meanwhile, is struggling to minimize losses, maintain morale and convince allies that, with more military aid, it can turn the tide. As this brutal war of attrition grinds toward its 1,000th day, neither side seems eager to negotiate.

How China reduced its reliance on US farm imports, softening trade war risks (Reuters) Since the U.S. and China imposed tit-for-tat tariffs in their trade war during Donald Trump’s first presidential term, Beijing has taken steps to reduce its reliance on American farm goods in a wider effort to bolster its food security. That has put China in a better position to withstand tariffs of at least 60% on Chinese imports threatened by Trump, set to return to the White House in January, raising the prospect of Chinese retaliation again targeted at U.S. agricultural goods. In his first term, Trump slapped duties on $370 billion worth of Chinese goods. Beijing retaliated with tariffs of up to 25% on over $100 billion worth of U.S. products, targeting soybeans, beef, pork, wheat, corn and sorghum. In the years since, the share of China’s soybean imports from the U.S.—the top American export to China—has dropped to 18% in 2024 from 40% in 2016, according to Chinese customs data, as China has turned instead to imports from Brazil, which has also replaced the U.S. as China’s top corn supplier. China’s agriculture imports from the U.S. declined to $34 billion in 2023 from $43 billion in 2022, and are expected to drop further this year, according to Chinese customs data.

North Korea Deploys a New Weapon Against the South: Unbearable Noise (NYT) Loud, crackly noises that sounded like an ominous, giant gong being beaten again and again washed over this village on a recent night. On other nights, some residents described hearing wolves howling, metal grinding together or ghosts screaming as if out of a horror movie. Others said they heard the sound of incoming artillery, or even a furious monkey pounding on a broken piano. Although they heard different sounds at different times, people in this South Korean village on the border with North Korea all call themselves victims of “noise bombing,” saying they find the relentless barrage exhausting. Since July, North Korea has amped up loudspeakers along its border with South Korea for 10 to 24 hours a day, broadcasting eerie noises that have aggravated South Korean villagers like no past propaganda broadcasts from the North ever did. The offensive is one of the most bizarre—and unbearable—consequences of deteriorating inter-Korean relations that have sunk to their lowest level in years.

Japan marks modern-day adventurer’s final stop on 46,000 km trek across Asia (Reuters) Japan is seeing a record boom in tourism, but one recent visitor travelled more than the circumference of the earth to get there, using boats, trains, camels, and even hitchhiking. Modern-day adventurer Omar Nok became a social media celebrity, attracting more than 750,000 Instagram followers, as he documented his circuitous 46,239 kilometre (28,732 miles) route from Egypt across a dozen countries without once boarding a plane. On his trek, he hitchhiked to Islam’s holy city of Mecca, sandboarded the dunes of Iran, broke down in the Tajikistan mountains in a purple Dodge Challenger driven by another adventurer, and crossed parts of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan riding horses and camels. Previously a financial analyst for Amazon in Germany and Luxembourg, Nok funded his journey through savings and extremely frugal spending. His daily expenses came to about $25, although his entire two-week run through Afghanistan cost just $88, he said. Throughout it all, Nok said he never felt in danger because generous strangers looked out for him wherever he found himself.

70 killed in Israeli airstrikes on north Gaza, Health Ministry says (Washington Post) About 70 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes on the Beit Lahia area of northern Gaza early Sunday morning, Munir al-Bursh, director general of Gaza’s Health Ministry, told The Washington Post. Dozens more were still trapped under the rubble, according to local reports. In total, more than 90 were killed across Gaza in the past day, including two dozen in strikes in the Nuseirat and Bureij refugee camps, Bursh added. Israel intensified military operations in northern Gaza in early October, encircling it and hitting numerous targets, saying the move is aimed at stopping Hamas militants from regrouping. U.N. and aid officials say that areas of the enclave are on the edge of humanitarian collapse as a result, and that those who remain in the north—especially children—are at “immediate risk of dying” from disease, famine and constant bombardment.

[warningsine]

CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela's former opposition candidate, Edmundo González, on Wednesday said he was coerced into signing a letter effectively recognizing his defeat in July's presidential election, which electoral authorities claim was won by President Nicolás Maduro.

The revelation of the letter is the latest strain to the country's political crisis, which was exacerbated by the disputed election results and González's recent departure for exile in Spain. González and the Unitary Platform coalition he represented on July 28 claim they defeated Maduro by a wide margin.

The document states it was meant to be confidential, but Jorge Rodríguez, head of the National Assembly and Maduro's chief negotiator, presented it during a nationally televised press conference hours after a local news outlet published parts of it. The letter shows González as the sender and is addressed to Rodriguez, who signed it as recipient.

Rodríguez told reporters González signed the letter of his own volition. González, however, in a video posted on social media said he signed it under duress.

"They showed up with a document that I would have to sign to allow my departure from the country," González said. "In other words, either I signed or I would face consequences. There were very tense hours of coercion, blackmail and pressure."

Rodríguez, questioned about González video message, threatened to reveal audio of his conversations with González if he did not take back his assertions.

Venezuela's National Electoral Council, which is stacked with Maduro loyalists, declared Maduro the election winner hours after polls closed. Unlike previous presidential elections, electoral authorities did not provide detailed vote counts.

But the opposition coalition collected tally sheets from 80% of the nation's electronic voting machines and posted them online. González and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said the voting records showed the former diplomat won the election with twice as many votes as Maduro.

González then became the subject of an arrest warrant over an investigation into the publishing of the tally sheets.

Global condemnation over the lack of transparency prompted Maduro to ask Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice, whose members are aligned with the ruling party, to audit the results. The high court reaffirmed his victory.

González, Machado, other opposition leaders and foreign governments questioned the audit's results. However, in the letter made public Wednesday, González admitted that while he does not agree with the tribunal's ruling, "I abide by it because it is a resolution of the highest court of the Republic."

In contrast, in his video message, he called himself the "elected president of millions and millions of Venezuelans" and promised to "fulfill" their mandate.

Venezuela's next presidential term begins Jan. 10 and lasts six years.

[speed-seo]

5 Pillars of a Powerful Digital Marketing Campaign

Embrace personalization to create targeted messaging and experiences across all your digital marketing channels. This will not only lead to statistically impressive results but also foster deeper engagement with your audience. Tweet Marketing enthusiast! Ever felt like digital marketing is a bit like navigating a bustling city – full of exciting possibilities, but also a tad overwhelming? Don't worry, you're not alone. Let's unravel this together, shall we? Questions and Concerns Doubts Fears – Let's Chat! Before we dive into the nitty-gritty, let's address some common queries and concerns that often pop up: - "SEO? PPC? What's all the jargon about?" We'll break it down into simple terms, promise! - "I'm on a tight budget. Can I still make an impact?" Absolutely! We'll explore cost-effective strategies. - "How do I measure if my campaign is actually working?" We'll discuss tracking and analytics to keep you in the loop. - "The online world changes so fast! How do I keep up?" We'll share tips on staying ahead of the curve. Feel better already? Great, let's move on to the juicy bits! 5 Cornerstones of a Winning Digital Marketing Campaign Think of a successful digital marketing campaign like a well-balanced meal – each ingredient plays a vital role. Here are the five key components to consider:1️⃣ Search Engine Optimization (SEO) – Your Online Visibility BoosterRemember that time you were looking for a specific recipe and Google magically presented it on the first page? That's the power of SEO! It's all about making your website and content easily discoverable by search engines. Think of it as leaving a trail of breadcrumbs (keywords) for Google to follow.- Keywords: These are the words and phrases people use when searching for something online. We'll learn how to sprinkle them naturally into your content.- Example: If you're a bakery, keywords might include "chocolate cake," "custom cakes," or "bakery near me." - Traffic: The more people visit your website, the better! SEO helps attract those valuable visitors. - Advanced SEO Strategies:- On-Page Optimization: Fine-tune your website's structure, meta tags, and content to make it more search engine friendly.- Tip: Use tools like Yoast SEO or SEMrush to analyze your on-page SEO and get actionable recommendations. - Link Building: Earn links from other reputable websites to boost your authority and credibility in the eyes of search engines.- Example: Guest blogging on industry-related sites or collaborating with influencers can help you earn valuable backlinks. - Case Study: A local bookstore implemented targeted keywords and optimized their website structure. As a result, their organic traffic increased by 50% within six months, leading to a significant boost in sales. - Challenge: SEO is an ongoing process, and search engine algorithms are constantly changing. It requires consistent effort and adaptation.- Solution: Stay updated on the latest SEO trends, monitor your website's performance regularly, and be willing to adjust your strategy as needed. - Yoast SEO: https://yoast.com/ - SEMrush: https://www.semrush.com/ - Originality: Just like you wouldn't copy someone else's recipe, create unique content that reflects your brand's voice.- Example: If you're a fitness brand, don't just regurgitate generic workout tips. Share inspiring success stories from your clients or create fun workout challenges that resonate with your audience. - Tools: There are plenty of handy tools out there to help you brainstorm and create captivating content.- Examples: Use Canva for eye-catching graphics, Grammarly for polished writing, and Trello for organizing your content calendar. - Advanced Content Strategies:- User-Generated Content: Encourage your audience to create and share content related to your brand. This builds community and provides you with authentic social proof. - Interactive Content: Quizzes, polls, and surveys can boost engagement and provide valuable insights into your audience's preferences. - Case Study: A travel agency started a blog featuring captivating travel stories and insider tips. This led to a significant increase in website traffic and brand awareness, resulting in more bookings and customer loyalty. - Challenge: Creating high-quality content consistently can be time-consuming and requires creativity.- Solution: Repurpose existing content into different formats (e.g., turn a blog post into a video or infographic). You can also collaborate with freelance writers or content creators to expand your resources. - Canva: https://www.canva.com/ - Grammarly: https://www.grammarly.com/  - Trello: https://trello.com/ - Targeted Reach: PPC allows you to zero in on specific demographics and interests, ensuring your ads reach the right people.- Example: If you sell hiking boots, you can target your ads to people who are interested in outdoor activities, hiking trails, or specific brands. - Ad Creation: Crafting compelling ads is key. We'll discuss best practices to capture attention and drive clicks.- Tips: Use strong headlines, include a clear call to action, and highlight the benefits of your product or service. - Advanced PPC Strategies:- Remarketing: Show ads to people who have previously visited your website or expressed interest in your products. This can help re-engage potential customers and increase conversions.- Example: If someone abandons their shopping cart on your website, you can show them ads for the products they were interested in to encourage them to complete their purchase. - Ad Extensions: Add extra information to your ads, such as phone numbers, location details, or additional links. This can improve your ad's visibility and click-through rate. - Case Study: An e-commerce store used PPC ads to promote their new product line. By targeting specific keywords and using eye-catching visuals, they saw a 300% increase in sales within a month. - Challenge: PPC can be competitive and requires careful budgeting and monitoring to ensure a positive return on investment (ROI).- Solution: Set clear goals for your campaigns, track your performance regularly, and adjust your bids and targeting based on the data. Consider using automated bidding strategies to optimize your campaigns for maximum efficiency. - Google Analytics: https://accounts.google.com/ (for tracking website performance and user behavior) - Google Ads: https://ads.google.com/ (for managing PPC campaigns) - Facebook Ads Manager: https://www.facebook.com/business/tools/ads-manager (for managing Facebook ad campaigns) - Branding: Your website is an extension of your brand. Make sure the design, colors, and fonts align with your overall image.- Example: A luxury hotel website should evoke elegance and sophistication, while a tech startup's site might be more minimalist and modern. - Visual Appeal: People are visual creatures! Use images and infographics to break up text and enhance the user experience.- Tip: High-quality photos and custom graphics can make a big difference in how your website is perceived. - Advanced Website Design Considerations:- Mobile-First Design: With more people accessing the internet on their phones, ensure your website looks and functions flawlessly on mobile devices. - User Experience (UX): Make it easy for visitors to find what they're looking for with clear navigation, intuitive layouts, and fast loading times.- Tip: Use heatmaps and user testing to identify areas for improvement in your website's UX. - Case Study: A clothing retailer revamped their website with a focus on visual storytelling and seamless navigation. This resulted in a 40% increase in time spent on site and a 20% boost in conversions. - Challenge: Keeping up with the latest design trends and technologies can be challenging, especially for small businesses with limited resources.- Solution: Consider using a content management system (CMS) like WordPress or Squarespace, which offer customizable templates and easy-to-use drag-and-drop builders. You can also hire a freelance web designer for periodic updates or redesigns. - WordPress: https://wordpress.org/ - Squarespace: https://www.squarespace.com/ - Engagement: Don't just broadcast your message – engage with your followers by responding to comments, asking questions, and participating in conversations.- Example: Host live Q&A sessions, run contests or giveaways, or create polls to encourage interaction. - Growth: Consistently providing valuable content and fostering a sense of community will naturally attract more followers. - Advanced Social Media Strategies:- Influencer Marketing: Partner with influencers in your niche to reach a wider audience and leverage their credibility.- Tip: Choose influencers whose values align with your brand and whose audience matches your target market. - Paid Social Advertising: Use targeted ads on social media platforms to reach specific demographics and interests.- Example: Facebook Ads allow you to create highly customized campaigns based on age, location, interests, and behaviors. - AI and Analytics: Leverage social media analytics tools to track your performance, understand your audience, and refine your strategy.- Example: Use tools like Hootsuite or Sprout Social to schedule posts, monitor mentions, and analyze engagement data. AI-powered tools can help you identify trends and personalize your content for better results. - Case Study: A beauty brand partnered with micro-influencers to create authentic content showcasing their products. This led to a significant increase in brand awareness and sales, especially among younger demographics. - Challenge: The social media landscape is constantly changing, and algorithms can impact your reach. It can also be time-consuming to manage multiple platforms effectively.- Solution: Focus on the platforms where your target audience is most active. Use social media management tools to streamline your workflow and schedule posts in advance. Stay informed about algorithm updates and adapt your strategy accordingly. - Hootsuite: https://www.hootsuite.com/ - Sprout Social: https://sproutsocial.com/ Sprinkle in Some SEO Magic Now, let's weave in some SEO best practices to make your campaign shine even brighter: - Keyword Research: Before you start creating content, do some research to identify relevant keywords your target audience is using. - On-Page Optimization: Make sure your website's pages are optimized for search engines by using keywords in titles, headings, and meta descriptions. - Link Building: Earn links from other reputable websites to boost your authority and credibility in the eyes of search engines. Keep it Fresh and Engaging Remember, the digital world is constantly evolving. Keep your content updated, experiment with new strategies, and don't be afraid to try something different. And most importantly, have fun! Digital marketing is a creative journey, so enjoy the ride! Your Turn! Now that you're armed with some essential knowledge, it's time to take action! What's the first step you'll take to launch your digital marketing campaign? Share your thoughts in the comments below! Read the full article

[qnewsau]

Scrap laws allowing Australian schools to sack gay teachers

New Post has been published on https://qnews.com.au/scrap-laws-allowing-australian-schools-to-sack-gay-teachers/

Scrap laws allowing Australian schools to sack gay teachers

Laws allowing religious schools to sack teachers on the basis of their sexuality or gender identity should be repealed, advocates say, as Brisbane’s Citipointe Christian College is back in the news.

Citipointe Christian College has issued a “statement of regret” for distress caused by a withdrawn 2022 enrolment contract that suggested gay and trans students could be expelled.

Outraged Citipointe parents complained to the Queensland Human Rights Commission. The legal action led to the settlement and statement from the school.

However in some Australian states, discrimination like this against students and teachers is sadly legal.

LGBTQIA+ advocates want the federal and various state governments to finally repeal religious exemptions that allow it.

Months ago, the Albanese government drafted a pair of bills on this, in response to a Australian Law Reform Commission report.

The Commission recommended scrapping provisions in the Sex Discrimination Act that allow religious schools to discriminate against staff on the basis of their sexuality or gender identity.

However, the government hasn’t released the draft laws to do so and delayed their introduction for months.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he’d only move forward with bipartisan support. However the Coalition hasn’t offered its final position on the draft bills.

‘The government promised to close the gaps’

But the delays are frustrating Equality Australia, Just.Equal Australia and Brisbane’s LGBTI Legal Service.

Equality Australia legal director Ghassan Kassisieh said if Citipointe was in another state, such as NSW or Western Australia, discrimination against students and teachers is permitted.

“The federal government promised to close those gaps. There are bills the government can introduce today,” Ghassan said.

New YouGov polling commissioned by Just.Equal found over half (52%) of Australians oppose laws allowing faith-based schools to legally sack or refuse to hire teachers because of their sexuality or gender identity.

59% of surveyed voters are against public funding for schools that discriminate, including 71% of Labor voters

64% of Labor voters polled want teachers protected, only 35% of voters don’t

65% oppose discrimination by faith-based service providers (such as hospitals, age care facilities, disability support services, charities, employment services), including 76% of Labor voters

“These results should give added impetus to protect LGBTIQA+ school staff and students from discrimination,” Just.Equal’s Brian Grieg said.

“If Labor wants to stop voters who care about discrimination defecting to the Greens or independents at the next election, it must take action to repeal laws that allow discrimination against LGBTIQA+ people in faith-based organisations.

“With the election less than a year away, Labor is running out of time to fulfil the promise it made to Labor voters that it will end discrimination in faith-based schools.”

Queensland and NSW governments must act

Queensland’s LGBTI Legal Service provided assistance in the complaint against Citipointe Christian College.

Director Jo Sampford said Queensland’s discrimination laws provide strong protections for students.

But Jo warned “big loopholes” still allow religious schools to sack gay and trans teachers.

She called on the Queensland government to change this before the state election in October.

The Public Interest Advocacy Centre also said the NSW government must scrap the state’s own “broad and outdated” exemptions to protect students and teachers.

“All students should have the right to learn and grow, free from the fear of discrimination on the basis of their sexual orientation or gender identity,” the Centre’s director Alastair Lawrie said.

For the latest LGBTIQA+ Sister Girl and Brother Boy news, entertainment, community stories in Australia, visit qnews.com.au. Check out our latest magazines or find us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube.

[xtruss]

Immigration Surges To Top of Most Important Problem List! First Time Immigration Has Been The Single Most Important Problem Since 2019

— By Jeffery M. Jones | February 27, 2024 | Politics

Washington, D.C. — Significantly more Americans name immigration as the most important problem facing the U.S. (28%) than did a month ago (20%). Immigration has now passed the government as the most often cited problem, after the two issues tied for the top position the past two months. The government ranked first each month from January through November 2023.

In the latest poll, 20% of Americans name the government as the most important problem, followed by the economy (12%) and inflation (11%). Immigration is the only issue that has shown meaningful change in the past month.

The latest results are based on a Feb. 1-20 Gallup survey. Immigration has ranked ahead of all other issues as the most important problem before, having last done so five years ago when there was a surge of attempted border crossings by Central American migrants. Immigration also ranked as the No. 1 problem in July and November 2018 and July 2014.

Gallup started compiling mentions of immigration in 1981. The 28% currently naming immigration as the most important problem essentially ties the 27% reading from July 2019 as the highest in Gallup’s trend.

The latest survey was conducted at a time when a bipartisan group of congressional senators reached an agreement on an immigration reform proposal. The bill ultimately failed to pass a Senate vote, but it faced an uncertain fate in the Republican-led House of Representatives even if it had passed. The House passed a tougher immigration bill in 2023 that the Democratic-led Senate has not taken up and President Joe Biden promised to veto.

The recent bipartisan negotiations took place in response to a record number of border crossings at the southern border in recent months, peaking at over 300,000 in December. An influx of migrants in U.S. cities has also stressed social services there.

Republicans typically are the subgroup most likely to name immigration as the most important problem, and they are largely responsible for the increase in mentions this month. Currently, 57% of Republicans, up from 37% in January, say immigration is the top problem. Independents show a modest uptick, from 16% in January to 22% now, while there has been no meaningful change among Democrats (9% in January and 10% in February).

Residents of the East (36%) and South (31%) are more likely to say immigration is the biggest U.S. problem than are those living in the Midwest (25%) and West (22%). Southern residents have typically been most likely to regard immigration as the top issue.

More See Illegal Immigration as a Critical U.S. Threat

A separate question in the survey finds a record-high 55% of U.S. adults, up eight points from last year, saying that “large numbers of immigrants entering the United States illegally” is a critical threat to U.S. vital interests. The prior high was 50% in 2004.

The vast majority of Republicans already believed illegal immigration was a critical threat; 84% said so a year ago, but the percentage has now reached 90%. A larger increase, from 40% to 54%, has been seen among independents. Far fewer Democrats view illegal immigration as a critical threat, but that percentage is up from 20% in 2023 to 29%.

Congressional Job Approval Dips

Perhaps related to its unsuccessful efforts on immigration and a foreign aid package, Congress’ job approval rating has fallen to 12%. This is the lowest Congress’ approval rating has been since it was 11% in November 2015, although there have been several 13% readings in that period, including last October.

The all-time low reading for Congress is 9%, registered in November 2013 after a government shutdown in a dispute over funding the Affordable Care Act.

Congress’ job rating has consistently been below 20% since July -- and in the current session, which began in January 2023, it has only reached 21%. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, while Democrats have a narrow majority in the Senate. On Feb. 13, the House, by one vote, approved impeachment articles against Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas over his department’s failure to secure the U.S. border. That vote was the House’s second attempt to impeach Mayorkas after the first attempt on Feb. 6 failed.

Fourteen percent of Democrats, 12% of independents and 9% of Republicans approve of the job Congress is doing. Congressional approval has fallen meaningfully among independents in the past month, from 18%. Democrats’ and Republicans’ approval ratings are similar to or the same as in January (15% and 9%, respectively).

Economic Ratings Inch Up Again

The February poll also included Gallup’s monthly update of Americans’ economic sentiments.

These assessments remain more negative than positive but have become considerably less dour in recent months. Currently, 26% of U.S. adults describe current economic conditions as excellent or good, while 32% say they are only fair and 41% poor. The poor rating is down slightly from 45% in January and has not been lower since January 2022, when it was 37%.

When asked whether the economy is getting better or worse, 32% say it is improving and 61% worsening. However, the 32% who believe the economy is getting better is the highest Gallup has measured since September 2021.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, which summarizes current economic evaluations and perceptions of whether the economy is improving, is -22, a nearly 20-point improvement since October’s -41 reading. It is the highest the index has been since September 2021, the month before the inflation rate surpassed 6%.

All party groups have been more positive about the economy since October, though the confidence levels still vary greatly among these groups. Since October, the index has increased 24 points among Democrats (from 0 to +24), 14 points among independents (from -43 to -29) and nine points among Republicans (from -72 to -63).

Improved economic evaluations have done little to brighten Americans’ overall mood, as 19% are satisfied and 79% dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States. These ratings have been highly stable in recent months, with satisfaction ranging between 18% and 22% since May.

Similarly, Biden’s job approval rating does not seem to be helped by the economy -- 38% approve of the way he is handling his job. Biden’s performance on the immigration issue may be keeping his overall rating down, as he receives a personal low of 28% for his handling of immigration at the same time that the issue has become more salient to the public.

Bottom Line

While many Americans regard the economy, generally, or inflation, specifically, as the most important problem facing the U.S., far more name immigration. Immigration now sits alone at the top of the most important problem list, something it has done only occasionally in Gallup’s trend and not since 2019.

Although their economic assessments have improved, Americans remain largely dissatisfied with the state of the nation and the job federal leaders are doing.

[pashterlengkap]

Obama’s campaign manager to Jen Psaki: Third-party candidacies are a gift to Trump

Thanks to its descent into the cult of Christian nationalism, the GOP is poised to nominate as president a man who tried to overthrow the previous election results and is currently facing 91 indictments. If that weren’t bad enough, polls suggest that Donald Trump has a fair chance of winning, thanks to the unfair advantage the Electoral College bestows upon Republicans. So in a tight race that Joe Biden won in 2020 by narrow margin in a few battleground states, every vote counts. That’s why Jim Messina, who was Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, told Jen Psaki that the biggest threat to Biden isn’t the polls or even the economy. It’s third-party candidates. “We cannot peel voters off” when the margins are so tight,” Messina warned. “People flirting with third-party ballots are playing into Donald Trump’s hands.” As it turns out, that may be exactly what some of the folks behind the third-party organizations want. Right now there are essentially three third-party efforts underway. Robert Kennedy Jr., the anti-vax, anti-trans AIDS denialist with a revered family name, is running as an independent, as is Racial Justice Activist Cornel West. Never Miss a Beat Subscribe to our daily newsletter to stay ahead of the latest LGBTQ+ political news and insights. Promotions (occasional) * Week in Good News (one on the Weekend) * Week in Review (one on the Weekend) * Daily Brief (one each weekday) * Sign Up Then there’s a group called No Labels, which purports to represent the majority of Americans dissatisfied with both Biden and Trump, promising to field as-yet-unnamed “unity ticket.” Who is funding these supposedly independent efforts? Republicans. It’s true that there are other donors as well. Kennedy has a collection of Hollywood types who have donated to him, and West has supporters who agree with his long history of activism. But a lot of money is coming from deep-pocket Republicans who are donating for reasons other than a belief in the candidate. Why would Harlan Crow, the Texas billionaire best known as Clarence Thomas’ financial patron, be donating to Cornel West’s campaign? (West returned the contribution.) There’s nothing in Crow’s background that indicates anything remotely connected with West’s racial justice work. Then there are the millions that Timothy Mellon, the grandson of banking mogul Andrew Mellon, has been investing in a PAC for Kennedy. Mellon, who has spent at least $5 million on Kennedy’s PAC, contributed $20 million to Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign. With a straight face, Mellon said he was putting his money on Kennedy as “the one candidate who can unite the country.” No Labels has a more complicated history, having grown out of a group of moderates in both parties who looked for common ground to work on. Now, however, the group is floating a fantasy ticket with the names of politicians with national experience, like Joe Manchin and Joe Lieberman. (Kirstin Sinema is another name on the list of potential running mates.) No Labels positions itself as a “commonsense” alternative to two parties that are equally immoderate. That’s nonsense. The Republican party is a party that has sanctified a violent attack on the transfer of power under a man who now openly promises to be a dictator on day one of his second term. Biden has always been more moderate than many in his party. That’s a big reason why he struggled in the 2020 party primaries. Once again, No Labels is getting money from people with suspicous motives. Harlan Crow donated to the group. But No Labels has been keeping its donors secret. Moderate Democrats call No Labels a stalking horse for Trump. “No Labels is wasting time, energy, and money on a bizarre effort that confuses and divides voters, and has one obvious outcome — reelecting Donald Trump as president,” Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) said in a statement.  In fact, given the stakes in the upcoming election, any vote that isn’t for Biden will… http://dlvr.it/T0gVjr

[arpov-blog-blog]

Monday, November 6, 2023

Why Democrats should (and shouldn’t) worry about Biden’s low poll numbers

Washington is 364 days away from the next presidential election. Which means naturally, Democrats are engaging in their favourite pastime: fretting about national polls or calming each other down that the polls are not nearly as bad.

This usually ignores one fact about polling everyone seems to forget: they are not meant to predict what will happen but rather serve as a snapshot of where public opinion is at the moment.

The latest case came on Sunday when The New York Times and Siena College released its survey showing that former president Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, the five major swing states.

Naturally, this set off alarm bells given that Mr Biden is running essentially unopposed, save for a quixotic run by Rep Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marianne Williamson. Running against an incumbent president would likely kill the career of any Democrat with some semblance of promise. So for now, it looks like Democrats are stuck with the president.

Mr Biden’s polling numbers have been stubbornly low almost since August 2021, when many Americans disapproved of the way the United States exited the war in Afghanistan. This has compounded with an economy where inflation remains stubbornly high (albeit the Federal Reserve announced last week that it would keep interest rates where they are).

The president’s age has also been a persistent issue for many voters, who fear that the toll of the job could be too much for the man who will turn 81 this month. Of course, Mr Biden’s age cannot be discussed without acknowledging the fact that his would-be-opponent is 77 and would be 78 on 20 January 2025 were he to take the oath of office a second time.

Almost immediately, some pundits began to diminish concerns. Larry Sabato, the director at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the election year is “a full year away,” Mr Trump faces 91 indictments and the “Economy is clearly improving, but it takes many months for voters to perceive and believe it.”

Mr Sabato, one of the all-around wise men of political projections, is correct that the election won’t happen until a year from now and many world events could happen in ways that few could predict. By this time in the 2020 presidential election cycle, few could have predicted a pandemic that sent many home and cost thousands of lives.

At the same time, while the economy has indeed improved greatly, it has generally been improving for more than a year. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 150,000 jobs, a sign that the labour market continues to grow but is not overheated, which could trigger rising inflation.

There are also some reasons to be wary of the results from the survey. The poll showed that Mr Biden has only a one-point lead against Mr Trump among voters between the ages of 18 and 29. Similarly, 22 per cent of Black voters in those swing states said that they would support Mr Trump. The former president indeed did grow his support among Black voters, particularly Black men, in 2020, but earning a fifth of the the Black vote would be surprising.

Furthermore, many of the same respondents who said that they would prefer Mr Trump also said that he “went so far that he threatened American democracy” when he tried to conest the election results. Indeed, at least a plurality in all five states and a majority in four of them said that Mr Trump crossed the line.

At the same time, this is the second time in as many months that Mr Biden’s supporters have collectively panicked about Mr Trump winning. In September, ABC News and The Washington Post released a national survey showing that Mr Biden trailed Mr Trump by a staggering 10 points, as many voters disapproved of his actions on the economy and immigration.

Democrats like to note that many polls predicted a red wave last year that ultimately did not happen while also simultaneously missing the backlash to the Dobbs v Jackson decision from the Supreme Court. At the same time, many polls missed the underlying support Mr Trump had both in the 2016 and 2020 elections.

These surveys might be missing the larger national sentiment, or they could ultimately prove to be indicators of growing dissatisfaction with the Biden administration that could lead to Mr Trump back into the White House. The Biden team likely takes these surveys more seriously than its defenders online do.