#Kreminna

[sonyaheaneyauthor]

Cinema in Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine. 1970s.

[stop-war-ukraine]

Aftermath of the “Russian world”.

The Ukrainian cities of Mariupol, Bakhmut, Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk, Vuhledar, Lyman, Vovchansk, Volnovakha, Marinka, Kreminna... Toretsk has now joined this far from complete list of cities turned into ruins after the start of t🇷🇺 invasion

[blueiscoool]

Pretty Deadly

In the forest west of Kreminna, Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions with 9M22S 122mm incendiary Grad rockets.

Footage shows the burning magnesium/thermite elements floating down through the trees.

[dialogue-queered]

At the beginning of 1915, the war on the Western Front had reached a stalemate. There were technical, strategic and doctrinal reasons for this. The machine gun changed tactics and killed soldiers by the hundreds, as did more accurate and concentrated artillery. Poor communications hampered the co-ordination of the different elements of the massive armies. A lack of protected mobility meant that even when a breach was made in enemy lines, the enemy could more quickly fill the gap than the attacker could exploit it.

Recently, this has become the analogy of choice for some writing about the war in Ukraine. Articles in publications from in the United States, Britain and beyond have all touted theories of the current “stalemate in Ukraine”. It makes for good headlines, but there is one problem: it just isn’t true.

The Collins dictionary defines stalemate as a “deadlock, draw, impasse … a situation in which neither side in an argument or contest can win or in which no progress is possible”. War is a complex tableau of military, diplomatic, technological, economic and societal endeavours. Therefore, a stalemate in war implies a situation of geographic, economic, military and intellectual stasis. This is not the case in Ukraine. Both sides in the conflict, and their supporters, have an enormous range of tactical and strategic options available to them in 2023.

What we are seeing instead is the normal ebb and flow of a long war being fought by well-resourced countries with external sources of support. After the initial burst of activity where each side seeks large, hard blows against the adversary to hopefully compel them to concede quickly, most wars settle into a cycle of pulses and pauses.

The most recent pulse, with the Ukrainian offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson, saw huge amounts of territory returned to Ukraine through the courage and innovation of its military forces, and the military, intelligence and technical support of the West. These offensives provided a boost to the morale of the Ukrainian people. They also reinforced that the Ukrainians are quite capable of defeating the Russians.

Importantly, the offensives also resulted in a lower tempo of operations. Humans, even well motivated ones, need a break from operations to reflect, reinforce and relax before the fighting begins again. This is the low ebb of the cycle of war that we are seeing right now.

It is a very long way from a stalemate. There is a huge amount of activity being conducted even in this low tempo phase. Most of it remains invisible to the layman because it is not as exciting to report or because it is hidden by operational security and the normal fog of war.

The Battle of Bakhmut is draining away Russian and Ukrainian lives. Over the past several months, the Russian Army and the mercenary Wagner Group have competed to hurl tens of thousands of Russian soldiers against Ukrainian defensive lines which have been developed and improved since 2014. The town of Bakhmut has no strategic importance beyond its propaganda value for a Russian Army that has had no battlefield victories since the early days of this war. Yet, the fighting there is as bitter as any in this war and is resulting in mass casualties that few armies can sustain.

To the north, the Ukrainian Army presses on with its methodical advance towards the Kreminna-Svatove-Starobilsk triangle. Unlike the battle to the south, this offensive will have important strategic outcomes if the Ukrainians succeed. Within these towns are key transport and logistic support hubs for the Russian Army in Luhansk Oblast. If Ukraine secures this critical triangle of cities, the Russian position in Luhansk is probably untenable, and its forces in Donetsk will be forced into a dilemma about how to orientate their troops.

There is much more occurring that we don’t see directly. Tactical reconnaissance on the ground, in cyberspace and in the air is occurring across the entire front, seeking weaknesses to exploit in the offensives to come. Training and equipping of new troops and formations is occurring – quickly - for these future offensives. Once trained, these formations are being deployed behind the lines and being readied to join the more experienced forces who are defending, scouting and preparing to advance. And changes in command are being made in preparation for attacks in the northern spring, such as the appointment of the Russian general Valery Gerasimov last week.

The strategic fight also rages unabated. Russian missile and drone attacks continue to cause the death of civilians and impact on power supplies, as they did again over the past weekend. The Russians probably have sufficient drones and precision missiles and rockets for several large-scale attacks on Ukraine each month. At the same time, both Ukraine and Russia continue to be energetic in the conduct of information operations in their own nations and beyond, seeking to retain the support of their partners and allies.

So, while we may not be witnessing the rapid advances of late 2022, there is still much activity going on in Ukraine. More importantly, both sides retain the military, economic and intellectual potential to innovate and act in creative ways to win battles and drain the resources of their adversary.

By no means are the main belligerents or their supporters yet in a position where “neither side in an argument or contest can win or in which no progress is possible”.

We may be in a lower tempo phase in this war, but this is a long way from a stalemate.

[sauolasa]

Ucraina: la battaglia della Kreminna

Feroci combattimenti per il controllo del cuore del Donbass

[captain-price-unofficially]

Kreminna forest, Ukraine 2024 (above) and Verdun, France 1918

[mariacallous]

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate that he is not interested in negotiating a ceasefire and remains focused on the total destruction of Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Oct. 31.

This conclusion was drawn after Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić's interview with Bloomberg on Oct. 30, in which he recalled his recent conversation with Putin and an attempt to discuss with him Russia's war against Ukraine and the possibility of a ceasefire. However, the Russian dictator made it clear that Russia would continue to pursue its goals in the war.

"All the goals of the special military operation, as he put it, will be achieved," Vučić quoted Putin.

The ISW stresses that these goals outlined by Putin ultimately mean the destruction of the Ukrainian state and government. He had previously rejected any ceasefire agreement during a press conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in July 2024, claiming that it would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm.

A hypothetical ceasefire under the current circumstances would only benefit Russia, giving Moscow time to further radicalize and militarize Russian society against Ukraine, as well as allowing the Russian army to rest and recover before possibly launching a new attack in the future.

The ISW also reported on the continuing Russian offensive in the Kupyansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar sectors of the front. Russian troops have advanced southeast of Kupyansk and west of Svatove, as well as along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Footage published on Oct. 31 also indicates advances in Stelmakhivka and Kruhlyakivka villages, suggesting that the Russians have likely captured these areas.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces have regained positions in a wooded area southwest of Pobeda, southeast of Kurakhove.

There are also indications that Russian troops may have captured Novoukrainka, northwest of Vuhledar. The ISW has geolocation-confirmed footage showing the Russian 40th Marine Brigade advancing into the central part of Novoukrainka.

While Russian sources claim to have captured Yasna Polyana, northwest of Vuhledar, the ISW has no evidence to support this claim.

[argumate]

Russian forces appear to have increased the number and size of mechanized ground assaults on select sectors of the frontline within the past two weeks, marking a notable overall increase in Russian mechanized assaults across the theater. Ukrainian officials stated on March 20 that Ukrainian forces repelled a large Russian assault in the Lyman direction and published geolocated footage showing Ukrainian forces damaging or destroying several Russian armored vehicles east of Terny (west of Kreminna). Ukrainian forces later defeated a battalion-sized Russian mechanized assault near Tonenke (west of Avdiivka) on March 30 to which Russian forces reportedly committed at least 36 tanks and 12 BMP infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). A Ukrainian serviceman stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight IFVs during the assault near Tonenke, and Russian forces have likely only conducted one other mechanized assault of that scale along the entire frontline since the beginning of the Russian campaign to seize Avdiivka in October 2023, which was also near Terny on January 20. Geolocated footage published on April 3 shows Ukrainian forces repelling a roughly reinforced platoon-sized mechanized Russian assault near Terny. The April 3 footage is likely recent and is distinct from the March 20 footage of Russian assaults near Terny. Russian forces may be intensifying mechanized assaults before muddy terrain becomes more pronounced in the spring and makes mechanized maneuver warfare more difficult. Russian forces may also be intensifying mechanized assaults to take advantage of Ukrainian materiel shortages before the arrival of expected Western security assistance.

the war, as insane as it may be, continues

[engin-program]

🌟 Meet Vladyslava Bilous! 🌟

👱🏻‍♀️ Vladyslava, 23, is from Kreminna in the Luhansk Region. After her home was occupied by russia in 2022, she moved to Kyiv and has been there for the past 4 years. Currently, she works at a creative agency that produces content for UNITED24 media, a platform dedicated to revealing the truth about the war and combating powerful russian propaganda.

💪 Vladyslava is seeking to enhance her skills with ENGin to communicate more effectively and make her content more engaging. Her friend, who works for a governmental charity organization, introduced her to ENGin, and she immediately recognized the value of this initiative.

✨ The most significant aspect of ENGin for Vladyslava is the opportunity to converse with native speakers, allowing her to learn new phrases and apply them to her work. She is excited about the prospect of learning about different cultures, broadening her horizons, and sharing more about Ukraine with the world.

🌐 Join us as an ENGin volunteer and become a buddy for someone like Vladyslava! Together, we can make a difference. 💬🌏🇺🇦

[awesome-casuallyfamouscollector]

Destroyed Russian T-72BA main battle tank, Kreminna, Luhansk region, Ukraine, 2023. Source: ukr.warspotting.net

[ukrainenews]

Daily Wrap Up February 27-March 1, 2023

Under the cut:

Ukrainians have reported attacks in the Bilohorivka and Kreminna areas in the eastern Luhansk region of Ukraine."There is constant shelling of our de-occupied settlements along the front line, despite the fact that there are many civilians in some settlements," Serhiy Hayday, head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, said. "The enemy is well aware of this and still it shells with heavy caliber weapons." For the past two months, the front lines close to the border of Luhansk and Kharkiv regions have seen heavy exchanges of fire as well as fighting in the forests west of Kreminna, which is held by the Russians.

Russia has lost at least 130 tanks and armoured personnel carriers in a three-week battle in the town of Vuhledar in southern Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials. Ukrainian officials said the “epic” fight on a plain near Vuhledar produced the biggest tank battle of the war so far and a stinging setback for the Russians, the New York Times reports.

Finland has begun construction of a 200km fence on the Russian border, the country’s border guard has announced. Terrain work would begin today “with forest clearance and will proceed in such a way that road construction and fence installation can be started in March”, the Finnish border guard said in a statement.

Ukrainian forces hung onto their positions in the ruined eastern city of Bakhmut early on Thursday under constant attack from Russian troops amid signs time might be running out. Russia says seizing Bakhmut would open the way to fully controlling the rest of the strategic Donbas industrial region bordering Russia, one of the main objectives of its invasion a year ago on Feb. 24.

Ukrainian air defense is shooting down 80% of Russian missiles, according to Lieutenant General Serhii Naiev, commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces.

“Ukrainians have reported attacks in the Bilohorivka and Kreminna areas in the eastern Luhansk region of Ukraine.

"There is constant shelling of our de-occupied settlements along the front line, despite the fact that there are many civilians in some settlements," Serhiy Hayday, head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, said. "The enemy is well aware of this and still it shells with heavy caliber weapons." For the past two months, the front lines close to the border of Luhansk and Kharkiv regions have seen heavy exchanges of fire as well as fighting in the forests west of Kreminna, which is held by the Russians.

"They also have a lot of Lancet kamikaze drones, and they are trying to use them to search for positions and equipment and to inflict fire," Hayday said.

There has also been heavy fighting east of the town of Kupyansk, which is in the same zone.

The Ukrainian State Border Guard Service released video of aerial reconnaissance in the area, saying that over the past few days 117 drone reconnaissance flights had helped fix artillery fire.

The General Staff said that in the northern region of Kharkiv, several civilians had been wounded in Russian rocket attacks. It reported heavy shelling along the frontline that runs north-south on the Luhansk-Kharkiv border.

Southwest of Donetsk city, "the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions," according to the General Staff.

CNN has geolocated video published by one Ukrainian brigade showing several Russian tanks and fighting vehicles being struck near the town of Avdiivka.

"In the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, the enemy is defending," the General Staff said, but "in some areas, it is trying to create conditions for an offensive."

The General Staff said Russian artillery had fired at more than 40 settlements in the long front line that runs from Donetsk through Zaporizhzhia and into Kherson.”-via CNN

~

“Russia has lost at least 130 tanks and armoured personnel carriers in a three-week battle in the town of Vuhledar in southern Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials.

Ukrainian officials said the “epic” fight on a plain near Vuhledar produced the biggest tank battle of the war so far and a stinging setback for the Russians, the New York Times reports.

Both sides sent tanks into the fray, “with the Russians thrusting forward in columns and the Ukrainians manoeuvring defensively, firing from a distance or from hiding places as Russian columns came into their sights”, the paper writes.

When it was over, not only had Russia failed to capture Vuhledar, but it also had made the same mistake that cost Moscow hundreds of tanks earlier in the war: advancing columns into ambushes.

The remains of the Russian tanks, blown up on mines, hit with artillery or destroyed by anti-tank missiles, now litter farm fields all about the coal mining town, according to Ukrainian military drone footage.

Russian troops also suffered a lack of experienced tank commanders in Vuhledar, and many of the fighters consisted of newly conscripted soldiers who had not been trained in Ukraine’s tactics for ambushing columns, the paper says. Ambushes have been Ukraine’s signature tactic against Russian armoured columns since the early days of the war.

By last week, Russia had lost so many machines to sustained armoured assaults that they had changed tactics and resorted only to infantry attacks, Ukrainian commanders said.”-via The Guardian

~

“Finland has begun construction of a 200km fence on the Russian border, the country’s border guard has announced.

Terrain work would begin today “with forest clearance and will proceed in such a way that road construction and fence installation can be started in March”, the Finnish border guard said in a statement.

The 3km pilot project at the border crossing near Imatra is expected to be completed by the end of June, it added. Construction of a further 70km, mainly in southeastern Finland, will take place between 2023 and 2025.

The fence will be more than 3 metres tall with barbed wire at the top, and particularly sensitive areas will be equipped with night vision cameras, lights and loudspeakers.

Currently, Finland’s borders are secured primarily by light wooden fences, mainly designed to stop livestock.

Although the Finland-Russia border has “worked well” in the past, Brig Gen Jari Tolppanen told AFP in November that the war in Ukraine had changed the security situation “fundamentally” and that a border fence was “indispensable” to stop large-scale illegal entries from Russian territory.”-via The Guardian

~

“Ukrainian forces hung onto their positions in the ruined eastern city of Bakhmut early on Thursday under constant attack from Russian troops amid signs time might be running out.

Russia says seizing Bakhmut would open the way to fully controlling the rest of the strategic Donbas industrial region bordering Russia, one of the main objectives of its invasion a year ago on Feb. 24.

Ukraine says Bakhmut has limited strategic value but has nevertheless put up fierce resistance. Not everyone in Ukraine is convinced that defending Bakhmut can go on indefinitely.

"I would not go as far as to say the situation is critical, but it is threatening," Ukrainian member of parliament Serhiy Rakhmanin said on Ukrainian NV radio on Wednesday night.

"From my standpoint, it is not logical to defend Bakhmut at any cost," Rakhmanin said. "But for the moment, Bakhmut will be defended with several aims - firstly, to inflict as many Russian losses as possible and make Russia use its ammunition and resources."

No lines of defence should be allowed to collapse, Rakhmanin said, and "there are two ways to approach this - an organised retreat or simple flight. And we cannot allow flight to take place under any circumstances."”-via Reuters

~

“Ukrainian air defense is shooting down 80% of Russian missiles, according to Lieutenant General Serhii Naiev, commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces.

"At the moment, the percentage of missile interceptions has changed significantly and is at 80% or even higher in some cases. Our air defense specialists have become more professional and competent," Naiev said on March 1.

Naiev added that Russia is changing its methods and tactics when it comes to air attacks.

"Therefore, we conduct analysis after each strike," said Naiev. "This analysis is necessary, and the commanders make decisions accordingly to ensure the resilience of the air defense is at the highest level."”-via Kyiv Independent

[realiv0]

And the new New Year’s Address (2022 into 2023):

New Year greetings of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Dear Ukrainians!

This year began on February 24. Without prefaces and preludes. Sharply. Early. At 4 o'clock.

It was dark. It was loud. It was hard for many and scary for some. 311 days have passed. It can still be dark, loud, and complicated for us. But we will definitely never be afraid again. And we'll never be ashamed.

It was our year. Year of Ukraine. Year of Ukrainians.

We woke up on February 24. Into another life. Being another people. Another Ukrainians. The first missiles finally destroyed the labyrinth of illusions. We saw who was who. What friends and enemy are capable of, and most importantly, what we are capable of.

On February 24, millions of us made a choice. Not a white flag, but a blue and yellow flag. Not escaping, but meeting. Meeting the enemy. Resisting and fighting.

The explosions on February 24 stunned us. Since then we have not heard everything. And we don't listen to everyone. We were told: you have no other option but to surrender. We say: we have no other option than to win.

On February 24, we began to create our victory. From many bricks – hundreds of other victories.

We have overcome the panic. We did not run away but united. We have overcome doubts, despair, and fear. We believed in ourselves and in our strength. The Armed Forces of Ukraine. Intelligence. National Guard. SBU. Special Operations Forces. Border guards. Territorial defense forces. Air defense forces. The police. The State Emergency Service. All our defense and security forces. I am proud of you all, our warriors!

This year can be called a year of losses for Ukraine, for the whole of Europe, and the whole world. But it's wrong. We shouldn't say that.

We haven't lost anything. It was taken from us. Ukraine did not lose its sons and daughters – they were taken away by murderers. Ukrainians did not lose their homes – they were destroyed by terrorists. We did not lose our lands – they were occupied by invaders. The world did not lose peace – Russia destroyed it.

This year has struck our hearts. We've cried out all the tears. All the prayers have been yelled. 311 days. We have something to say about every minute. But most of the words are superfluous. They are not needed. No explanations or decorations are needed. Silence is needed to hear. Pauses are needed to realize.

The morning of February 24.

Hostomel. Bucha. Irpin. Borodianka. Kharkiv.

Mriya.

Kramatorsk Station. Toy.

Chernihiv.

Mariupol. Drama Theater. The word "Children" written.

Olenivka.

Odesa. Multi-story building. Girl. Three months old.

Vilniansk. Maternity hospital. Baby. Two days old.

Azovstal.

It's impossible to forget. And it's impossible to forgive. But it's possible to win.

We stood on our feet because there was something that kept us going. Our spirit.

Defense of Kyiv.

Kharkiv.

Mykolaiv.

Chornobayivka.

Snake Island.

HIMARS.

Antonivsky Bridge.

"Cotton" pops.

Crimean Bridge.

Neptune.

Cruiser Moskva.

Russian warship.

Izyum, Balakliya and Kupyansk.

Kherson.

And we pray that there will be Kreminna and Svatove, Melitopol, all of Donbas, Crimea.

We fight and will continue to fight. For the sake of the main word: "victory."

It will be for sure. We are approaching it for 311 days.

We gave it a lot of strength. But at the moment, when it seems that you can't go any further, remember that we have already passed with you.

I want to say to all of you: Ukrainians, you are incredible! See what we have done and what we are doing!

How our soldiers have been smashing this "second army of the world" since the first days.

How our people stopped their equipment and infantry columns.

How an old man used his hands to stop a tank.

How a woman knocked down a drone with a jar of tomatoes.

How enemy tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, shells were stolen during the occupation.

How we fundraised for Shahed hunters, naval drones, armored vehicles, ambulance vehicles and Bayraktar drones in several hours.

How we withstood all threats, shelling, cluster bombs, cruise missiles, darkness and cold.

How we supported each other and the state.

Everyone is important in war.

Who holds a weapon, the steering wheel of a car, the helm of a ship or plane, a scalpel, or a pointer.

Everyone who is behind a laptop, who drives a combine harvester, a train.

Who is at a roadblock and a power plant.

Journalists and diplomats, utility workers and rescuers.

All. Who is working. Studying at a university or school. And even those who are just learning to walk.

All this is for their sake. Our children. Our people. Our country.

There are no small matters in a great war. There are no unnecessary ones. Each of us is a fighter. Each of us is a front. Each of us is the basis of the defense.

We fight as one team – the whole country, all our regions. I admire you all. I want to thank every invincible region of Ukraine.

Kharkiv. Mutilated but unconquered. You proved to the enemy that being close territorially does not mean being close in mind. Kharkiv is a Ukrainian city. The hero city.

Invincible Mykolaiv. Heroically withstands all blows. The city on a wave that overcomes all storms.

Sumy city and the region. You were one of the first to feel the full-scale invasion of the invaders. Sumy region became a bone in their throat for them. Ordinary people made Molotov cocktails, burned enemy columns, took the first prisoners. Sumy region is a force.

Dnipro. The support and reliable rear of our front. You received people, you got the lives of wounded soldiers back. Despite constant barrages, Dnipro lives on.

Odesa. Sunny and friendly, now a fortress. World fortress. Which defends us and which defends the world. Feeds it by sending millions of tonnes of salvation by sea every day. Because it is Odesa Mama.

Kherson! You are heroic people! You have been under occupation for more than eight months. No news. No communication. Separated from Ukraine.

Thousands of you took part in actions against the ruscists. You did not know whether we saw it in Ukraine or knew about it. The occupiers lied to you that Ukraine abandoned you and would not fight for you. But you believed and waited despite everything. The face of Kherson is cut by fragments of shells, but the main thing is that we welcome the New Year free and together under blue and yellow flags. And therefore, we will restore everything, rebuild everything. Just like Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia, and Kramatorsk, and Bakhmut.

Those that became a refuge for millions of Ukrainians: Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia. I thank you! Those who receive and transfer millions of tonnes of aid from Europe and the world: Lviv, Uzhgorod, Chernivtsi, Lutsk. Thank you! Those who accept the evacuation of businesses, enterprises, universities: Khmelnytsky, Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytsky, Poltava, Cherkasy. Thank you!

And those who are waiting for Ukraine. And will wait. Donbas, Luhansk region, Crimea. Thanks to you, our warriors!

And, of course, Kyiv region and the city are our heart, which always beats thanks to you, all our Ukrainians!

We are all one family. One Ukraine.

This is the year when Ukraine changed the world. And the world discovered Ukraine. We were told to surrender. We chose a counterattack! We were told to make concessions and compromises. We are joining the European Union and NATO.

The world heard Ukraine. European Parliament, Bundestag, the UK Parliament, Knesset, the US Congress.

The world felt Ukraine. Ukraine in the media. In the hearts of people. At the top of Google search.

The world saw Ukraine. On the main squares in Toronto, New York, London, Warsaw, Florence, Sydney, and other cities.

Ukrainians surprise. Ukrainians are applauded. Ukrainians inspire.

Is there anything that can scare us? No. Is there anyone who can stop us? No.

Because we are all together.

It is what we are fighting for. One for each other.

The best salute for us is at the warehouses of the occupiers. The best gift is the numbers in the report of the General Staff.

We do not know for sure what the new year 2023 will bring us. But ready for anything.

New achievements? We will be happy. New hits? We will be steadfast. Continuation of the fight? We will fight. And when we win, we will hug.

Dear Ukrainians!

A few minutes remain until the New Year. I want to wish all of us one thing – victory. And that's the main thing. One wish for all Ukrainians.

Let this year be the year of return. The return of our people. Soldiers – to their families. Prisoners – to their homes. Immigrants – to their Ukraine.

Return of our lands. And the temporarily occupied will become forever free.

Return to normal life. To happy moments without curfew. To earthly joys without air alerts.

The return of what has been stolen from us. The childhood of our children, the peaceful old age of our parents.

So that grandchildren come to visit their grandparents during the holidays. To eat watermelons in Kherson. And the cherry in Melitopol.

So that our cities are free. Our friends are faithful.

And so that our main figure and main success appeared in reports near the figure of 100,000 destroyed enemies, thousands of units of destroyed Russian equipment – it is 603,628 square kilometers. The area of independent Ukraine, as it was since 1991. As it will always be.

May the New Year bring all this. We are ready to fight for it. That's why each of us is here. I'm here. We are here. You are here. Everyone is here. We are all Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Happy New Year!

Source:

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/novorichne-privitannya-prezidenta-ukrayini-volodimira-zelens-80197

[blueiscoool]

Ukrainian 'Ghosts'

Newly mobilized and undertrained Russian soldiers firing at Ukrainian ghosts from a trench dug in a forest near Kreminna.

[tentacion3099]

Donbas LAN Party edit. Part of the Battle of the Svatove–Kreminna line. Mode -Team Deathmatch. Map - Kreminna Forest

[theculturedmarxist]

Yves Smith asks:

What if Russia Won the Ukraine War but the Western Press Didn’t Notice?

She points to several headlines which, despite decisive Russian victories like its taking of Soledar, present the Ukraine as winning the war:

Nevertheless, Soledar has fallen and the loss of Bakhmut looks baked in, absent horrific Russian errors. The so-called Zelensky line is breaking even before Russia has put its recently-mobilized forces to work in a serious way. Regular commentators are waiting for the Russian hammer to fall, although Russia may simply grind more forcefully by pressing harder at more points along the very long line of contact. Remember one concern on the Russian side is avoiding “winning” in a way that leads to NATO panic and desperate action ... not that the Collective West’s fragile emotional state can be readily managed.

With that context, you’d expect some members of the press to have worked out that things are not going very well for Ukraine and the classic cowboy movie rescue of the calvary riding over the hill (here in the form of tanks and artillery) will be too little, too late.

Instead, the media seems to be trying to integrate snippets of facts on the ground with the heroic tale of inevitable Ukraine victory.

That is certainly correct for the wide majority of the stories, which claim that Soledar and Bahkmut, are irrelevant towns, but some pieces are creeping up that differ. A few days ago the Washington Post headlined:

Bloody Bakhmut siege poses risks for Ukraine

Ukraine faces difficult choices about how much deeper its military should get drawn into a protracted fight over the besieged city of Bakhmut, as Kyiv prepares for a new counteroffensive elsewhere on the front that requires conserving weapons, ammunition and experienced fighters.

Russia has escalated its assault in the area in recent days, unleashing savage fighting that has underscored the high cost of the battle. Russian mercenaries and released convicts from the Wagner group pushed into the neighboring salt-mining town of Soledar and inched closer to Bakhmut, the capture of which has eluded them for months despite an advantage in firepower and the willingness to sacrifice troops.

The piece quotes several Ukrainian soldiers which speak of huge losses on their side. But the U.S. is still egging them on:

The senior U.S. official cautioned against completely dismissing Bakhmut or neighboring Soledar as nonstrategic places that Kyiv can simply relinquish, noting that the salt and gypsum mines give the area economic significance. Theoretically, the Russians could use the deep salt mines and tunnels to protect equipment and ammunition from Ukrainian missile strikes. Moscow has also endowed the city with import.

“To some degree, Bakhmut matters to [Ukraine] because it matters so much to the Russians,” the senior U.S. official said, noting that control of Bakhmut is not going to have a huge impact on the conflict or imperil Ukraine’s defensive or offensive options in the country’s eastern Donbas region.

The official added, “Bakhmut is not going to change the war.”

I believe the senior U.S. official to be very wrong. Soledar and Bakhmut are bleeding the Ukrainian army dry. That is of relevance. Look at the insane number of Ukrainian units deployed on that only 50 kilometer (30mi) long sector of the front.

I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.

Zaluzhny has pulled units from other fronts like the Kreminna and Svatove sector further north in Luhansk province to feed them into Bakhmut. That has minimized any chance that the Ukrainian forces in those sectors will be able to make any progress.

What nearly all reports from Ukraine seem to miss is the huge damage that Russia artillery is causing on a daily base. Ukraine has little artillery left to respond to that and whatever it still has is getting less by the day.

A few weeks ago the Russian military started a systematic counter artillery campaign which has since made great progress. The typical western way of detecting enemy artillery units is by radar. The flight path of the projectile is measured and the coordinates of its source are calculated enabling ones own artillery to respond. But counter-artillery radar itself depends on radiating. It is thereby easily detectable and vulnerable to fire. Over the last months Russia deployed a very different counter-artillery detection systems with the rather ironic name of Penicillin:

Penicillin or 1B75 Penicillin is an acoustic-thermal artillery-reconnaissance system developed by Ruselectronics for the Russian Armed Forces. The system aims to detect and locate enemy artillery, mortars, MLRs, anti-aircraft or tactical-missile firing positions with seismic and acoustic sensors, without emitting any radio waves. It locates enemy fire within 5 seconds at a range of 25 km (16 mi; 13 nmi). Penicillin completed state trials in December 2018 and entered combat duty in 2020.

The Penicillin is mounted on the 8x8 Kamaz-6350 chassis and consists of a 1B75 sensor suite placed on a telescopic boom for the infrared and visible spectrum as well as of several ground-installed seismic and acoustic receivers as a part of the 1B76 sensor suite. It has an effective range for communication with other military assets up to 40 kilometres (25 mi) and is capable to operate even in a fully automatic mode, without any crew. One system can reportedly cover an entire division against an enemy fire. Besides that, it co-ordinates and corrects a friendly artillery fire.

The Penicillin system can hide in the woods and stick up its telescopic boom to look at and listen to the battlefield. As it does not radiate itself there is no good way for an enemy to detect it.

The system pinpoints Ukrainian guns as they fire. They are then eliminated by immediate precise counter-fire. As the artillery relevant part of today's 'clobber' list provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense claims:

Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised an artillery ordnance depot of 114th Territorial Defence Brigade near Veliky Burluk (Kharkov region), as well as 82 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware at 98 areas.

Counterbattery warfare operations have resulted in destruction of:

one Polish-manufactured Krab howitzer near Peschanoye (Kharkov region);

one U.S.-manufactured M109 Paladin howitzer, and one fighting vehicle equipped with Grad multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) near Lozovaya (Kharkov region);

one D-20 howitzer near Terny (Donetsk People's Republic);

two Giatsint-B howitzers near Maryinka and Orlovka (Donetsk People's Republic);

two Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers near Nevskoye (Lugansk People's Republic), and Preobrazhenka (Zaporozhye region);

five D-30 howitzers near Zmiyevka, Novokairy (Kherson region), Sofiyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Orekhov (Zaporozhye region).

Four U.S.-manufactured counterbattery warfare radars have been destroyed:

two AN/TPQ-50 stations near Mylovoye and Dudchany (Kherson region),

one AN/TPQ-36 counterbattery warfare radar near Ugledar (Donetsk People's Republic),

one U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-48 counterbattery warfare radar near Senkovo (Kharkov region).

Air defence facilities have shot down six Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Kremennaya (Lugansk People's Republic), Nikolskoye, and Petrovskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

14 rocket-propelled projectiles launched by HIMARS and Olkha MLRS have been intercepted near Udy (Kharkov region), Smolyaninovo (Lugansk People's Republic), Donetsk, and Khartsyzsk (Donetsk People's Republic).

One U.S.-manufactured anti-radiation missile has been shot down near Radensk (Kherson region).

One Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile has been shot down near Berdyansk (Zaporozhye region).

The above is the equivalent of two artillery companies (batteries with six guns each) eliminated in just one day. Ukrainian counter-battery fire against Russian artillery is no longer possible as the necessary detection equipment gets eliminated and as Ukrainian counter-fire is shot down by Russian air defenses.

This Russian counter-artillery campaign has been going on for several weeks. It has disabled large parts of what was left of Ukrainian longer range capabilities. Meanwhile the Russian artillery keeps on knocking down Ukranian troops that hold the frontline. Only when all parts of the Ukrainian trenches have been hit by intense fire will the Russian infantry move in to clean up whatever is left behind.

This form of battle is causing huge losses on the Ukrainian side while the Russian forces incur just a minimum of casualties.

In his recent talks Col (ret.) Douglas Macgregor put the deaths in Ukraine forces at 150,000 and casualties at 450,000. I, like Yves Smith, doubt that number of wounded is that high. As the system of Ukrainian battlefield extradition and hospitalization is in a bad state there will be less wounded and likely more dead.

In a huge contrast to U.S. waged wars, the civilian death count on the Ukrainian side is remarkably low:

Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential staff, said at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos, “We have registered 80,000 crimes committed by Russian invaders and over 9,000 civilians have been killed, including 453 children.”

Feeding more troops into the battle in the Bakhmut sector, as the Ukrainian side has been doing, is not a good use of resources.

We can state that Ukraine has by now lost the nominal equipment of two larger armies.

At the beginning of the war the Ukrainian army was said to have some 2,500 tanks, 12,500 armored vehicles and 3,500 large artillery systems. It is doubtful that more than half of those were in a usable state but they may have received enough repair to be workable.

The Russia military claims that most of those have been eliminated:

7,549 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 984 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,853 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 8,081 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

If one doubts those numbers one has to ask why the Ukraine has needed to import so many more weapons and is still short of them:

410 Soviet-era tanks delivered by NATO members in former communist bloc, including Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia.

300 [Armored/Infantry Fighting Vehicles], including 250 Soviet-designed IFVs from former communist states.

1,100 [Armored Personnel Carriers], including 300 M113 troop carriers and 250 M117s.

300 towed howitzers. 400+ pieces of self-propelled artillery, of which 180 is on order.

95 [Multiple Rocket Launchers]

There were also a number of fighter airplanes, helicopter and air-defense systems. The above was the second army, after Ukraine's original one was mostly gone, that has by now been nearly eliminated.

The Russian clobber list now regularly reports of combat with Ukraine forces that kills, for example, one tank, three armored vehicles and a number of pick-ups and motor vehicles:

One Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group has been eliminated near Liman Pervy (Kharkov region). The enemy has lost over 50 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, and two pickups. … [In Donetsk direction] over 60 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, three armoured fighting vehicles, and six motor vehicles have been eliminated. … Two AFU sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been eliminated in the area to the north of Levadnoye and Vladimirovka (Donetsk People's Republic). The enemy has lost up to 40 Ukrainian personnel, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles.

Pick-ups and unarmored motor vehicles should avoid the frontline and certainly not be part of force attacking the immediate frontline. If these reports reflect the current structure of Ukrainian forces, as I believe they do, than its state is indeed dire.

In his Economist interview General Zeluzhny has requested a third army to be delivered to him immediately:

“I know that I can beat this enemy,” he says. “But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs [infantry fighting vehicles], 500 Howitzers.”

As the Economist writer dryly noted:

The incremental arsenal he is seeking is bigger than the total armoured forces of most European armies.

The stocks of two complete armies have by now been destroyed in Ukraine. The resources for a smaller third one will be delivered in the next rounds of 'western' equipment deliveries during the next months. Russia will dully destroy Ukraine's third army just as it has destroyed the first and second one. It is doubtful that the 'West' has enough material left to provide Ukraine with a fourth one.

That then leaves only two options. Send in 'western' armies with the equipment they still have or declare victory and go home.

The neo-conservatives as ever favor the first option. President Joe Biden may still be against sending U.S. soldiers but this could change if he indeed gets blackmailed into doing it:

[A]s the ‘classified documents’ scandal gains momentum, the malleable president will likely fall-in-line and do whatever the hawkish foreign policy establishment demands of him. In short, the documents flap is being used by behind-the-scenes powerbrokers who are blackmailing the president to pursue their own narrow interests. They have Brandon over-a-barrel.

There is no evidence that this is happening but the signs are there.

The second option is to declare a non-existent victory and to forget about the whole issues.

But will the 'western' media, as Yves asks, notice any of this?

As commentator David correctly remarks at Yves' site:

I’ve said for a long time now that the West will be able to claim “victory”, or at least not defeat, by establishing fantastical victory conditions that the Russians never had and never wanted, and then claiming credit for frustrating them. With luck, this will just about enable western elites to hang onto power, at least temporarily.

"Putin tried to conquer Europe but we stopped him after he took only half of Ukraine," will sound like victory. But it is of course extremely far from the truth. Anyway, the media may well buy it:

But in the wider sense, we’re seeing the latest and most degenerate stage of the stupidity and ignorance which has afflicted the western media and pundit class over the last year. They didn’t know about the war in the Donbas, nobody told them Russia had the strongest army in Europe, nobody knew about the defensive lines in Donbas, nobody understood the seriousness of the Russian threats, nobody realised the Russians hoped for a short, sharp war to bring the Ukrainians to their senses, nobody understood why Russia went over to Plan B while it mobilised, nobody realised the Russians had been stockpiling weapons and ammunition for years; nobody knew what attrition warfare was …. In other words, the most disgraceful example of ignorance and stupidity of any ruling class in modern times. It will go on to the end, and “victory” will be proclaimed.

The war the U.S. provoked in Ukraine has been won by Russia even when no one wants to note it.

[captain-price-unofficially]

Brazilian volunteers in Ukraine, Kreminna Forest. Aug 2024