#thinking on the margin

[jadagul]

Marginal thinking is hard. So much political coverage gets hung up thinking about the typical voter for a party, rather than the marginal voter. Or thinking about whether the majority of a demographic group will flip, rather than whether the distribution of support will change.

An effect that persuades 1% of voters matters hugely. But it still feels like "no one" is changing their mind; in an average waiting room no one will!

Trump isn't going to "win the Black vote" in 2024, and various people will point this out; but the difference between getting 10% and getting 20% is enormous.

Large-scale democracy just isn't very intuitive!

[taliabhattwrites]

[hinata-boke]

sanji-kun!!

[lilybug-02]

Dewi needed Hornets help OKAY.

Bug Fact: The Planthopper insect can accelerate from 0 to 12 miles per hour in less than a millisecond. Video/Pictures Below

First || Prev // Next

Masterpost

The Planthopper essentially vanishes from view.

They are also an extremely diverse set of insects morphologically!

Interested in learning more? True Facts About Leafhoppers and Friends <- very humorous and educational video :D PG-13

[jadagul]

Yeah.

On the one hand, this is a regularly charged, prosecuted, and convicted crime, so it's not a trumped-up anti Trump thing.

On the other hand, this is a regularly charged, prosecuted, and convicted crime, so we basically know how it's usually handled; first-time nonviolent offenders often don't get jail time for this sort of thing.

(The most plausible reason for giving him jail time would be that he is refusing to show remorse or accept any responsibility for his actions but I'm not sure I'm comfy about that entire...part of sentencing?)

But for rule of law reasons we should want Trump to be treated like everyone else, including when that's in his favor.

---

That said, I don't like the tendency to just assume this won't affect Trump's political support. Sure, it won't swing his base to support Biden. They're his base! That's what "base" means!

But elections aren't fought over the base; they're fought over swing voters. You know, the ones on the margin, who change their minds. (And if you're wondering how anyone can, at this point in history, be genuinely uncertain about whether they like Biden or Trump better—well, think about how disconnected that person would have to be from politics, realize that's very normal, and those are the people who are going to decide the election.)

You don't need a big impact for this to swing the election. If this changes the minds of, like, half a percent of voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, that could decide the election. And that's very plausible! Especially since, for those voters, this might be the first time they're hearing about any of Trump's criminal troubles.

(How is that even possible, you ask? See the previous parenthetical. If you are voluntarily reading about politics on social media, on purpose, you are at least one standard deviation of engaged above the mean, and like two or three above swing voters.)

And one reason I really want to push back on this is that the fatalism about this not changing anyone's mind can be self-enacting. Because if we informed people all say "yeah, this is irrelevant, no one's mind should change because of that", then why wouldn't the swing voters believe us?

Not to be This Guy I’m sure you have 100000 asks about this but do you figure the trump felony convictions actually mean anything

Probably not, honestly. I doubt very much that he will ever serve a term of imprisonment after this conviction and it's not going to do anything at all to erode his support.

It does, however, mean that he can't own firearms. Generally speaking, in most states, in most circumstances without having to take extra steps, people who have been convicted of felonies can't own guns.

I don't think that matters much because I don't think he's someone who actually uses firearms, but if you're looking for solid, material impacts of a felony conviction that's the one that I can think of off the top of my head.

Other than that? I don't think it's going to do much. In most states you've got more of a right to run for office than you do to *vote* if you've been convicted of a felony (and, to be perfectly clear, I don't think that a felony conviction should bar people from voting or holding office).

I mean, I guess a lot of people are going to get a lesson on how ineffective norms are at stabilizing politics when you're dealing with people who don't respect norms.

Like you're going to be hearing a whole lot about "hypocrisy" aimed at the GOP from dems who are like "well don't you want to strip felons of their rights? Don't you hate criminals? He's a criminal!" when yeah no that was never actually the problem for the criminals the GOP hates.

And the problem isn't that he's a *criminal* it's that he's the personality at the center of a fascistic cult of personality.

Though honestly I think the extremists kind of blew their wad at J6 and sank into the background to lick their wounds when they realized they hadn't been able to drum up massive popular support for their movement.

I don't know the entire thing is a giant fucking tire fire make sure to pay attention to your local candidates and check in with the lefties on your local school board to see how you can support them.

[marzipanandminutiae]

Of course, the burkini ban is messed up on grounds of religious freedom and racial discrimination. But also

Under any other circumstances, people would be HORRIFIED at a government mandate that women have to show a certain amount of skin. Like. That’s fucking dystopian, and the absolute opposite of feminism. If a government tried to pass a law that all women had to wear tube tops and miniskirts to go outside, people would rightfully be up in arms demanding blood

But because it’s targeting a marginalized religious group, many folks are lauding the blatant forced sexualization of women. Appalling

(apparently the ban also outlaws things like sun – protecting bathing suits if they cover too much skin. Which like. Yes, let’s give everyone skin cancer just so we can spite a religion we’ve decided to hate. Sounds like a good plan </s>)

[taxinealkaloids]

behold hitherto unposted htn doodles! harrow+her terrible mentor, harrow+her terrible roommate

[g3othermal3scapism]

Was it casual when I made the margins of your list of rules I didn’t agree with wider because I knew you write in the margins? Was it casual when I bought you a multiple-hundred dollar customized chef coat because you mentioned that you thought mine looked cool? Was it casual when our coworker started wearing the assigned uniform and I said she was ‘dressed like you’ even though everyone else also wore the uniform? Was it casual when I waited all night after the soft open of our restaurant to bring you coffee after you ignored me for weeks and got yourself locked in the fridge?

[queenlucythevaliant]

clean your sword

i. Peter had thought many times about dying for his brother, killing for his sisters, as all oldest children do.

ii. He'd imagined it a hundred times: how if his mother and father were ever killed, he'd get some low-skill job and make sure Lucy's clothes still fit her as she grew. How he'd make fists and fight dirty if Susan was ever threatened. What he'd do if Edmund ever had to flee the country on a dark, windswept night.

iii. Yet when he heard Susan's horn that day, he still froze. Only for an instant, he thought, "this can't be my job, right?"

iv. The blood on his sword shone red when it was all over. When he wiped it on the grass, the stain it left was almost black.

v. They'd put Susan in his arms when he was two years old. Peter didn't remember it, but he knew he'd been waiting for her till then. He wasn't a real person until he was a brother.

vi. And when they walked back to the pavilion, Rhindon bumping Peter's hip, all he could say to his sisters was, "I'm sorry I didn't come faster."

vii. The High King was almost obsessive in the way he cared for Rhindon. When he grew older and required weapons larger than those made for a child, he obsessed over them too.

viii. He told the others, in no uncertain terms, that if it ever came to it in battle, they were to leave him and live. As their brother and high king, he commanded it.

ix. The first time Edmund risked himself for Peter's sake, Peter didn't speak to him for a week.

x. He was oiling his sword when Edmund found him. "See, the thing is, Peter, being brothers goes both ways. If you can love me enough to die for me, than I get to love you just the same."

xi. Peter agreed with him then, to avoid the argument. He was sick of not talking to his brother. Yet privately, he knew that Edmund was wrong. That sacrifice was Peter's special prerogative, as the first-born.

xii. Back in England, his mother noticed that Peter had become more fastidious. She didn't notice that his protective streak has grown - and maybe it hadn't, really.

xiii. It was uncanny, how Peter would always show up just when his siblings needed him. He'd round a corner, and there was Lucy stamping her feet and scowling at a bully. There was Susan, crying, and now his knuckles were bloody.

xiv. He cleaned the blood off in the sink so carefully. The water ran red for a second, and it almost seemed black.

xv. When Caspian asked for the High King's advice, looking so very young, Peter jerked his chin towards the sword a Caspian's hip. "Be ready to use that," he said. "Keep it clean, and close."

xvi. Susan forgot Narnia and she forgot Aslan. Yet selfishly, Peter still hoped that she would never forget how quickly he came when she called.

[xobloodletter]

misc doodles of fem benny and yes ma'am

[coyoteworks]

IN CASE YOU MISSED THE MEMO: HERE'S THE THING ABOUT DRAGONS

[crazycatsiren]

Happy International Women's Day to disabled women, neurodivergent women, poor women, fat women, queer women, women of color, Jewish women, Muslim women, women who are sex workers, women who are addicts, women who are homeless, women who are single mothers. ♀️

[starry-bi-sky]

danny and officer martinez's relationship in "late at night, when the nightingale sings" in a nutshell:

Martinez: FREAK! GET YOUR FUCKING KID!

Battinson, on the other side of the crime scene: he don't bite

Martinez, with Nightingale firmly attached his arm, visibly biting him: YES HE DO!

*points at them* Danny is the Bugs Bunny to Martinez's Elmer Fudd.

Another Officer: i can't believe you're fighting with an actual twelve year old. Martinez: i swear to god that is not a twelve year old, that is a little hellion that crawled out of batman's shadow one dark and stormy night and decided to dedicate his existence to tormenting me. Officer: Are you really that mad about him putting a sticky note on your back-- Martinez: thats not the point

in danny's defense: the word "freak" is. a mini beserker button for him for.... obvious ghostly reasons, so like, even if its not directed at him, he still very much unappreciates Martinez's insults at Battinson. Danny may or may not be projecting.

he's not going to hurt the guy! not in any serious or permanently disfiguring way at least! But he is going to leave mean sticky notes on the square part of his spine that he can't reach, and stick salt in his 3AM Late Night Crime Scene Coffee, and kick the bottom of his heel while he's walking so he stumbles. And other petty, infuriating things that tally up and boil over, over time.

[inkskinned]

im having a particularly terrible night with urges and imagery that i dont know how to handle. i gave in to some things. held back on some others. but im barely holding on, dear internet stranger.

you do not owe me your time or your words.. but if you could write some hope into existence for me.. i would be unendingly grateful to you.

please. tell me how you do it. tell me how you survive. because im not so sure i can get through the fifteen days it'll take to get to my seventeenth birthday.

could you please give me something to place my faith in? i dont think the universe is watching out for me anymore.

i don't usually answer these, because i am not a professional, and you deserve professional help. when i was 17 i was terrified of the idea of professional help, because my household was extremely unsafe, and made it clear that if i ever chose to get help, i would be punished for it.

i hope this is not your case. i hope that you can call someone, and they can take you where you should go.

but i will give you the advice that i wish i got, when i couldn't get help at 17, when i was so bad that years later, i literally don't-know-how-i-survived it: what you want is peace, not death. your brain is sick. it has romanticized an ending where there are no consequences. where effort isn't necessary. where you can just... forget.

you want peace. that is a normal, human thing to want. maybe it feels more like you want quiet. or just... to take a break for a second.

here is what i will say: to end yourself means you never get to experience what it's like to actually be happy. i thought i knew what it was like, and i was bitter about it. i'd say - i've been happy, it's not worth it, because i didn't know what i was missing. i thought that happiness meant having a partner or having a job or money or a college degree. it sounded like effort. it sounded like something that had to happen to me.

for the first time in my life, just this week, i was able to go to a concert and just-enjoy-it. no liquor, no drugs. just stomping my feet and getting caught up in it. i didn't feel nervous or self-conscious or overwhelmed. i just had a good time. these days have a lot of these firsts for me - it is the first time i can eat cake without crying. it is the first time i can be around an exacto blade without supervision. it is the first time i have too many people to call when i am crying.

i can't tell you where you'll run into happiness, only that, for me, it started once i was out of that fucking house. it started once i figured out where the pain was coming from. once i figured out that i was not possessed, something medical was wrong with me. that i am not stupid or lazy, i have depression and adhd. the first few years were difficult. at 19, during my efforts to recover, i actually got worse by a considerable margin. and then, with time and patience - i got better.

happiness doesn't feel like what you think it will. in movies it's so golden and all-encompassing. but it doesn't fly into your hands when you buy your first car nor does it arrive in the arms of a partner nor does it require passing your classes. happiness came to me on a tuesday in the form of a red-winged blackbird, and i looked at her, and she looked at me, and i said - oh. the whole world suddenly filled itself in with color. like i had been forever-asleep. like every corner of every room was suddenly glistening.

it ended quickly, back then. it just stopped in to check in on me. but it was enough - this thing i had never experienced, but that i knew (logically) could happen. before that, i was only staying because it would make my mom sad if i died. that was my only reason. and then the happiness came, so strange and brilliant and lovely that for years i couldn't even look at it directly.

these days, things are so different. life is so much easier. i don't wish for death because so much of what i have is already at peace. my boss understands when i need a mental health day. people in general are less prone to high school drama. entire communities hold my hand and have my number. i have a car and a dog and a little apartment garden and candles on all available surfaces and today i bought myself a little cake just-to-celebrate-nothing. my body is my own and we are both dancing.

there are so many things i've gotten to taste in the last 10 years. i know, for you, that is an eon, because it's more than half of your life. but if it helps? in the 5 years between 17-21: i filled myself with laughter and love. i got to be a lead in a ballet and got my first tattoo and then my second and pierced my ears the way i'd wanted to (one of them professionally the other over a hot stove with a potato) and i discovered hozier is my favorite singer (i know. he was new back then) and i got my first real job and my first real paycheck and i hadn't ever been seen as smart but then i started to actually treat my adhd as a condition rather than a burden and people started saying you're like the smartest person in the room and my best friend met her husband who i will one day stand next to as maid of honor when he is her groom and i got to help people and make a stupid blog called "inkskinned" and find out that writing is actually my passion and that maybe i'm actually kind of good at it if i just practice and i got to meet my parents' dog (his name is kaiju) and i slept on couches and kissed people and tried new things and learned how to breathe without feeling my chest tighten and that peace is here, on this planet, that peace echoes everywhere, it is in my hair and my homework and my houseplants, it is quiet and divine and mine because i fought for it and i built it and yes i lost hair over it but holy shit the whole world feels like it is shifted through a sunbeam

recently someone asked me if i could go back in time to 6th grade, with all the knowledge i have now, would i? and without thinking, i barked absolutely not. i know i should say it's because i wouldn't want to risk losing any of this stuff - but really it's because i would never survive being a teenager again. it sounds incredibly lame and impossible, fake - but being a teenager was the hardest thing i ever did. i had no voice, no control, only fear and hatred.

but i did survive it. nothing about me is special. nothing about me is stronger than you or better prepared or more efficient. i didn't survive it perfectly. i made a lot of mistakes and lost a lot of friends and harmed myself in ways that i'm still recovering from. but i did survive it. and there is a part of me looking at you in the past and saying - i'm you in the future.

and holy shit. every day. every goddamn day i'm glad we survived to see the rest of it. because you hit 18 and everything changes. like, everything. and holy shit, it is infinitely worth it.

[bat-kidsarebi-kids]

I love you transfems I love you tall transfems I love you short transfems I love you fat transfems I love you thin transfems I love you hairy transfems I love you transfems who shave I love you butch transfems I love you femme transfems I love you it/its transfems I love you transfems who don’t use she/her I love you transfems who exclusively use she/her I love you transfems who pass I love you transfems who don’t pass I love you transfems who don’t want to pass I love you transfems who are on HRT I love you transfems who aren’t on HRT I love you transfems who don’t want to transition I love you transfems who are still closeted I love you if you have a penis I love you if you have a vagina i love you if you are intersex you are not a sex object you do not exist for other people to use you up you are worthy of love regardless of your relationship to sex & you deserve to be backed by your community 100% of the time. transfems you are always safe on my blogs. i see you transfems I love you transfems you are more than enough exactly as you are transfems

[lgbtlunaverse]

How I feel about this and next week's dungeon meshi episodes

I'm already seeing people going at it and it's gonna get SO much worse next week when The Fight™ happens. I am so tired. I just wanna stare at my and marcille's hot dragon chicken wife. Is that too much to ask?