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bulletin-attal-sejourne · 27 days ago

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A Oui for Stephane; the Nons for Gabriel

When the executive head met the parliament head in Brussels and Paris, respectively. It's interesting how the roles of the duo have switched ever since Q3 2024.

Time: 241125 - 241127

Bonjour à tous! It's Wednesday, 27 November 2024, a big day for the Eurocrats as the MEP voted for the European Commission for a very slight margin; Meanwhile, the budgetary tightrope walk in Paris could boil down to a motion of censure thus the downfall of the government

Welcome to BAT, for the mid-week recap of manoeuvres, and challenges of the former couple at the heart of power.

STEPHANE SEJOURNE

This morning, the European Parliament has just given Ursula von der Leyen's new Commission the green light. That's...that's it. Regardless of how marginal the approval votes was, after weeks of nail-biting hearings, France's very own Stéphane Séjourné is officially part of the team.

Big shoes to fill. The real challenges begin after the appointment, as Séjourné steps into the crucial role of overseeing Europe's industrial strategy. It's a high-stakes game with Russia, China, and the US all jostling for position. Delivering on VDL's promise of a "holistic simplification" approach (with the sheer annoying amount of Euro-red-rapes we have) and making Europe a global industrial powerhouse (our version of MEGA but less toxic), will not be an easy job.

Green industry is the name of the game. Séjourné will work closely with Spain's Teresa Ribera, the new competition and green transition chief. Together, they'll need to find a way to balance economic growth with climate ambitions, all while navigating the tricky waters of EU competition policy. Expect fireworks! (And not the romantic and fun one this time.)

Speaking of (unromantic) fireworks, some MEPs weren't too thrilled with the Commission's rightward tilt. French Socialists voted against the entire college, protesting the inclusion of Italy's far-right Raffaele Fitto as one of the vice presidents. Not a good sign for the future 5 years of cooperation, really.

Again, this is just the beginning. Séjourné has a busy 100 days ahead of him. He'll need to craft a plan to boost Europe's digital startups and help the continent secure its supply of critical raw materials. Plus, there's that little thing about making sure Europe's car industry stays in Europe. He really needs to get it working, with no effort spared, as he claims so!

(I just realised these three sources are written in 3 different languages. Speaking of European diversity!)

GABRIEL ATTAL

Sainte-Catherine agricultural fair! It was Monday, November 25th. While the budget brouhaha continues to consume the Parisian political class, the former Prime Minister and current Renaissance maestro, might as well recharge himself and ventured into the heartland of France, the Orne region to be precise. Was it a desperate attempt to escape the censure storm brewing in the capital or a cunning move to woo the rural vote? Let's examine the evidence, shall we?

The Scene: Attal arrived fashionably late, a mere 45 minutes behind schedule, but hey, even in the world of cattle auctions, a bit of Parisian flair is to be expected. Upon arrival, he was greeted with the full pomp and ceremony befitting a political heavyweight: local officials beaming, senators nodding sagely, a "parade of television cameras" jostling for the best angle, and the local député, Jérôme Nury, looking particularly pleased with himself1.

The Gifts: Attal was showered with local delicacies: a charming basket of regional produce from the mayor and, the pièce de résistance, a vintage bottle of calvados from Nury, who quipped: "It's the Élysée's official supplier, you need to start getting used to it". Was Nury hinting at Attal's presidential ambitions? ●

The People's Champion: Attal worked the crowd like a seasoned politician, charming the locals with selfies and fielding questions from farmers with ease. Whispers of "You're handsome," "He's so good looking" and "He's really young" followed him as he navigated the fairgrounds. Even the normally stern-faced president of the FNSEA Normandie, Anne-Marie Denis, seemed to soften in his presence.

Master of the Moment: Attal showed a willingness to engage with the issues that matter to rural voters, discussing bovine tuberculosis, agricultural regulations, and the ever-controversial Mercosur trade deal. He even tried his hand at the traditional Sainte-Catherine game of guessing the weight of an ox, displaying a playful side that likely resonated with the fairgoers.

Verdict: The mayor of Briouze, Jacques Fortis, who had previously threatened to resign over the town's exclusion from a rural revitalisation scheme, seemed positively smitten with Attal. He declared the streets "full" for Attal's visit and described the former PM as "very friendly, very simple". High praise indeed from a mayor who, just a few months ago, was ready to walk away from it all.

So, was Attal's agricultural adventure a success? Judging by the smiles, the selfies, and the mayor's glowing review, it seems the former PM made a positive impression. Whether this translates into actual votes in future elections remains to be seen. But one thing's certain: Attal is a master of the political stage, and he knows how to play to his audience of Norman farmers.

It is however a bit more complicated when he is playing 3D chess with a broken board – battling rebels in his own camp, haggling over budget crumbs, and trying to keep a government that looks shakier than a Jenga tower in a windstorm. Former pals? They're already plotting their great escape, eyeing up alternative political real estate. Another day, another drama for our young maestro of mayhem! To let us understand the complexity we shall begin with the topic flying all over TV and newspaper headlines:

Budget Battleground

We need to save!: Prime Minister Michel Barnier, facing a record deficit and mounting debt, has proposed a budget characterized by austerity measures. These include cuts to public spending and, most controversially, a reduction in employer contribution relief.

Opposition from All Sides: The budget has been met with fierce opposition from various political factions. The left, led by the Socialist Party and La France Insoumise, condemns it as "austeritarian" and damaging to social welfare. Meanwhile, even members of Barnier's own "socle commun" coalition, particularly Gabriel Attal's EPR group, are pushing back against specific measures.

Sounds boring right?: Well, let's talk about the stakes. The budget fight goes beyond mere numbers. It represents a struggle for political power and a clash of ideologies. The outcome will have a significant impact on France's economic trajectory and the social well-being of its citizens.

The Censorship Sword

Threat of a No-Confidence Motion: The left has explicitly threatened to table a censure motion if Barnier fails to address their concerns regarding the budget. This motion, if successful, could lead to the government's collapse and potentially trigger early elections.

Marine Le Pen's Crucial Role: The outcome of the censure motion hinges on the stance of RN, which holds the largest opposition bloc in the Assembly. Le Pen has expressed strong criticism of Barnier's budget, threatening to vote against it. Her decision could make or break the government.

A High-Stakes Gamble for Everyone: The censure threat creates a complex strategic dilemma for all parties involved. For the left, it's an opportunity to topple the government and potentially gain power. For Le Pen, it's a chance to assert her influence and advance her own agenda. For Barnier, it's a battle for survival, requiring him to carefully navigate the demands of his opponents and his own allies.

Attal's Role: While Attal is primarily seeking concessions, not a government collapse, the line between the two is blurry. His aggressive stance could be interpreted as a calculated gamble: pushing Barnier to the edge to extract maximum concessions, but risking a censure motion that could empower the RN. Adding to the complexity, Attal needs to manage internal disagreements within EPR. Some members are eager for a showdown with Barnier, while others are more cautious. A misstep could alienate potential allies and weaken his leadership. The management of disagreements is particularly essential when he is facing this problem of:

The traitors

A Resignation With a Message: Martine Madelaine and Sélim Denoyelle, former leaders of the Renaissance party in Charente-Maritime, resigned, citing the movement's "rightward shift." They specifically objected to the government's policies on pensions and immigration, arguing that these measures betrayed the party's original values. This resignation highlights the growing discontent among some Macronists who feel the party has abandoned its centrist platform in favour of a more right-wing agenda.

Minister of Ocean Seeking a New Horizon: Hervé Berville, who served as Secretary of State for the Sea in both the Borne and Attal governments, is also charting a course away from the Macronist core. While he maintains loyalty to Macron, he's looking beyond the current administration, expressing a desire to return to his social-democratic roots. Berville has reportedly been in contact with former President François Hollande and former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, figures associated with the traditional left and plotting for a solid left wing presidential movement in 2027. He's openly critical of the Macronist alliance with the right, particularly on the budget, which he sees as a drift towards "an Orléanist and bourgeois right."

Your ex's bestman, The Justice Crusader: Gone were the days in the Moines Oyster yard, now Sacha Houlie, still invited Stephane Sejourne as his bestman on his own wedding, emerged as the lead dissenter of the formerly Renaissance AN group, and sat as an independent (after the failed attempt to pull more deputies from EPR) and voiced strong opposition to Gabriel Attal's proposed law on juvenile justice, calling it a "very bad text" that undermines the principles of specialized justice for minors. This time, he was successful. With EPR elected officials Stéphane Travert, Belkhir Belhaddad and Lionel Causse, he significantly amended the text in commission, aligning himself with the left and pushing for a more preventative approach, a move that dealt a major blow to Attal and the EPR group, when the person concerned, very interestingly, was not present in thorough the voting process...

Gabriel Attal would like to make this text a marker. He himself did not show up to defend it.

And why betray? As the saying goes, "There are no permanent friends or enemies; only permanent interests." Some started with genuine convictions, believing in a transformative vision, but found themselves gradually disillusioned. Others, always pragmatic, view political parties like career elevators – when one falls, they're quick to find a more promising route.

A classic cocktail blend of opportunistic moves with genuine ideological differences. For our future RE Secretary General, the challenge is clear: craft a compelling vision that speaks to the post-Macron era. It's about creating a narrative and direction that resonates with current members and potentially attracts new supporters. The goal is to provide enough clarity, inspiration, and strategic direction to keep the party united and motivated through this transitional period...And possibly even for a new presidency.

fin.

#gabriel attal #stephane sejourne #french politics #newsletter

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