#in the statistics. there is no reason for it not to be me and if not me it'd be someone else
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I would love to hear the rant about social media doomerism and conspiracy
I’m on my phone right now but the summary version is something like:
Humans are bad at integrating information into their worldview accurately bc of various cognitive biases
Social media incentivizes us seeking out content that excites fear or anger or irritation
Social media thus causes us to form negative impressions of the world bc it mediates so much information consumption and discourse these days
This general negative affective impression is subject to high confirmation bias and ppl in general are really bad at divorcing an affective impression of a thing from their dispassionate reasoning abt a thing
(Bc one of the functions of an affective impression is to “cache” our conclusions about a topic to save time and effort later)
(In general if you are a cynic and pessimist you can fall prey to these biases w/o social media but I think social media makes more ppl susceptible to them)
People don’t want to be dupes so they seek refuge in cynicism. We treat cynicism as wise or worldly when in fact cynicism makes you a dupe and an easy mark for grifters. Cynicism and low trust foster conspiracism, paranoia, and antisocial politics
(This is why so many congenitally contrarian folks seem to flit effortlessly between the far left and far right; it’s not horseshoe theory, they’ve just cooked their brains on this stuff)
This is a world where populist anti-social politicians like Trump and the AfD thrive, bc they will lie about how everything is terrible and people will nod along, bc it explains why their social media is full of awful stories of, like, immigrants eating pets and shit
But it doesn’t just have to be insane lies only a moron could believe. It can be any impression about a fact in the world that it is difficult to personally check and which is vulnerable to being swayed by anecdote
This is how we get a word where people think crime rates are higher than they’ve ever been when in fact crime is falling
Or child predators lurk around every corner when in fact children are safer than ever
Or the American economy is in a recession when in fact it’s doing historically well by just about every available metric (now with full employment AND low inflation!)
Because in a big world even where things are in general good and getting better you can always produce infinite individual examples of shitty things and pipe those in a steady stream into people’s eyeballs, and then point to that and leverage people’s low trust attitudes and their cynicism which tells them they are smarter than the experts and go “statistics is just a fancy way to lie! The world is secretly terrible! Every bad thing is even worse than you thought and every good thing is a lie!”
(Nevermind the whole phenomenon where anything that is complicated or that someone does not themselves understand gets treated like it’s actually secret and a conspiracy.)
And here I know I have to include some disclaimer about how this is not to discount individual cases of suffering or struggle, which are real, or that there are indeed some really awful things happening in the world right now, which there are, but you know what?
I’m tired of doing that. People with reading comprehension operating in good faith ought to be able to deduce that general statements do not obviate particular exceptions, and people who cling to their doomerism as a kind of emotional life raft do not generally argue with me in good faith.
Sometimes doomerism is a load-bearing pillar of their politics, which I think is dumb—I think you can be a leftist or a progressive without being a doomer! In fact I think doomerism is antithetical to useful politics!
Sometimes they are just depressed and treatment-resistant. Sometimes they are just angry misanthropes who want to feel justified in their misanthropy. Some doomers are themselves in bad circumstances and feeling hopeless about that—to them I am enormously sympathetic. Though a lot of doomers will admit they personally are doing OK—this does not seem to be most doomers.
But I think in general cynicism and doomerism and a worldview dominated by a general nebulous air of Everything Is Awful and by abstract nouns with threatening auras is not conducive to wisdom or understanding or useful politics or leading a happy and fulfilling life.
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How I became The Desk of Alto Clef.
My response to a SCP Group designed around Hate and Bigotry who have targeted me and others in this community.
Nah, man, my daughter is dead.
It has been brought to my attention that there is a group of people on the internet who are fascinated with my fascination of Alto Clef and Meri. Hurtful and yet cute in a way so I think now I'll choose this time and these screen grabs from their discord to explain how I came to be 'The Desk of Alto Clef'.
My Daughter died six years ago and it sent me spiraling deep into the bottom of whatever bottle I could find.
I was completely prepared to take my own life and even had the things to 'finish the job' because my life had no meaning at that point. What was another statistic going to matter anyways, right?
It was in one of these dark, drunk moments with a gun when I fell across the Volgun's video on 'reality benders and you' and fell into a rabbit hole.
Drunkenly I fumbled around the wiki and learned more about this broken man known as Alto Clef.
A man whom I could relate to in my own way. A man who, no matter what he did, could never see his daughter as I will never be able to see mine. So thus, I became a very, very shitty cosplayer.
I like to believe that over the past four years my acting ability has increased to a sustainable level and as much as I joke about things I do try to stay humble about it. Though I like to think I've become better but I digress.
I love the lore of Clef and Meri, on or offsite, to the point that I am weird about it I know, but that's how I stay connected to my daughter. Writing the Deskverse is how I stay connected to my daughter.
I am also autistic which causes me to hyper fixate on Clef as a coping mechanism.
Because of this group of people I have greatly considered leaving the community and going back to my own personal solitude. Acting, Voice Acting, Cosplaying as Clef gave and still gives me something to live for again. I may not be this group's cup of tea but I do like to believe that I have helped others. My main goal has always been to uplift those who need uplifting. I do not want anyone to ever feel how I felt in my lowest and darkest moments.
The main story in the deskverse is about a father and a daughter torn apart by the actions of an abusive mother. My real life story.
I also have ZERO clue as to why I am being involved with misogyny or yuri things. If I have offended you in any way I do apologize.
I do not plan on posting the more 'suggestive' or 'lewd' responses they have made. Overly sexualized content does make me extremely uncomfortable.
This group of people have broken my heart into pieces. Seeing this list of images and names dragging me through the mud has already smashed my unstable self-esteem as it is.
At this time I do not plan on releasing any names associated with all of this because I am honestly tired of reliving the most horrid event of my life over and over because I, for whatever reason, do not fit what this group feels is acceptable of an actor/writer/fan.
I cannot say the same for the others in which they were assaulting.
In summary Alto Clef is an outlet for the pain I live with every day. I can never see, hold, hear, smell, or speak to my daughter. I have scars on my body from her mother that will never allow me to forget that life I had. I will always remember the taste of gunpowder but thankfully my drunk ass was too weak. If your going to be bad at something, be bad at that I suppose.
I will leave all of this with a final image from the copious list and the one that honestly hurts me the most. I am honestly a shy and reserved person and frankly it takes a lot for me to get out of my comfort zone. Not long ago I went to another SCP discord server because I wanted to meet new people and someone in there was awesome. I truly enjoyed my time with this person and just found them amazing. They were kind, open, willing to listen to my ideas, and gushed over Numberonedoggo. I thought I had finally made a new friend on my own. I was apparently wrong.
Art, from some of my favorite artists, was made for the sole reason of mocking me specifically. To laugh at me for finding joy in something that gives me purpose. Something I use to drive away the darkness.
No age, disorder, illness, or reason at all can be acceptable for anyone to act in this way. You are all a mockery of everything the SCP community should stand for.
-TheDesk
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I saw a little while ago that you were writing a book on transandrophobia? Is that something that's still in the works?
That is correct, I am still working on it. The current title (which might change) is "Transandrophobia: When Fear Becomes Hate - Trans Men and the Material and Emotional Consequences of the Fear of Men". I've re-written large chuncks of it multiple times. I realize I kind of have to get it close to perfect, otherwise people will decide me writing with too much emotion or too many numbers/statistics or not enough of either is the perfect excuse to slander the concept of FTM Liberation theory. I do not currently know when I will be finished with the book or when it will be published. I would like to say "by the end of 2025, it will be complete", but I can't gautentee that. I want my work to be concise, without room for misinterpretation, factually + materially sound, and focused on striving towards liberation, solidarity, and action. Which takes time and hard work.
A lot of people have misinterpreted what transandrophobia means and my reasons for coining the term in the first place. I want to avoid further misinterpretation upon publication, which means not rushing it to meet a deadline that I've set for myself or others.
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Maybe this is me but I can't read "start a stretching routine" as anything but effective and affectionate advice.
You should! I should! I'm 31 and I should absolutely start proactively exercising and stretching, because that's good for me! Sedentary lifestyles are bad for your health overall, and while my life and me as a person have both definitely improved over the last decade, I am statistically normal in that my life is much more sedentary than it was when I was 21, if for no other reason than because stocking shelves is just a much more physically active job than the various forms of "work at a desk" I do now.
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Some tips for writers today:
1. Uh don’t emulate my word count if it doesn’t come naturally to you. If you don’t write 20,000 words in a month GOOD I have carpal tunnel for a reason. It’s ADHD not skill. (I mean yeah there’s skill involved but really it’s okay if you only wrote a sentence today really we all have those days including my hyperverbal ass)
2. KEEP YOUR OLD WORK no matter how much you might hate it. I haaaaate reading older stuff but seeing how much progress I’ve made even from what I consider my “best” work has been amazing. I know for a fact I’m a better writer than I was even a year ago let alone ten years ago.
3. Save positive comments. Keep a folder. Break em out on a rainy day. For those of you still leaving comments on ten year old fics bless you I adore you.
4. It’s supposed to be fun! So have fun! Break shit! Write the weird thing! Write the corny thing! Write what you want to read trust me other people want to read it too. Like statistically at least one other person does I guarantee it and it’s probably me I’m am odd duck.
5. Yeehaw fuck the law.
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I don’t normally comment about booktube here. But I’ve just seen a video and I have to get some comments off my chest.
This video was about e-readers. And while the person has a huge collection of books behind them, goes on to explain that e-readers are so unnecessary, cause they are expensive. And if you are going to buy an e-reader, just buy an iPad cause they are similar in price….
I’m sorry but in what world is an iPad and an e-reader the same price?? (Or yk other tablets of a similar nature).
This person goes on to talk about how e-readers can’t install apps like Libby etc…are we just going to ignore the e-readers that run on android?? That function like a regular phone just with an e-ink screen??
I honestly gave up watching this video cause this person just sounded like they were pretty single minded on the topic. So here’s my two cents.
Pro’s for an ereader: (at least in my case)
1. E-reader’s are amazing for portability. Physical books can get very heavy, and although I love them, I hate taking physical books out with me cause I’m terrified of damaging them.
2. Books in my country, are incredibly expensive. You can go to the bookstore, and end up spending $50 AUD and get 1-2 books depending on what you get. Hard covers are usually $40+! Paperbacks can range between $17-$40 also. And if it doesn’t get printed in Australia?? Good luck. The only way I could get Hunting Adeline was to pay $65. Because whenever I ordered it from Amazon at $35, from America, it would come absolutely obliterated because they don’t package it in anything but a basic plastic mailer bag. No protection at all.
3. E-readers are much better for your eyes and don’t have constant distracting notifications and people trying to ring you. I have weak eye muscles. Always have. I wear glasses for this. And I used to read on my phone cause it’s what I have with me while I was out. But once I got an e-reader, I realised just how bad my eye strain was from my phone. E-readers have seriously improved my reading stamina especially since mine has the orange light feature. It’s not like we all don’t have an internet or phone addiction anyway. At least according to statistics I’ve seen in the past. Majority of us are trying to spend less time on our phones and more time doing what we love. And e-readers absolutely help with that. (Much better for my ADHD too honestly.)
4. I live with roommates, I have very limited space. So big book collections is just not something that’s possible for me. I’d love to, but again, space and money.
5. E-readers have given me the opportunity to read books that I’d never be able to get. Because of space reasons, money reasons, and the fact that Australia just does not get the wide selection of books that other countries do. We miss out so much. Some books, we have to wait YEARS for, while everyone else gets them on release dates. My e-reader has been such a huge investment for me, as well as an opportunity maker to give me the option to read books I’d never be able to get other wise.
I will clarify this by saying yes, I do have an iPad. But that was a gift. I didn’t buy it for myself. My mother very graciously bought it for me with her inheritance money. She went out of her way to make sure I had a good working device for university. That iPad was over $2,000 aud. My e-reader?? $250!!! HUGE price difference. And it has helped me save so much money in the process. Cause if I read the ebook, and don’t like it, that’s okay, refund. If I do??? Then I can absolutely go out and hopefully track down a physical copy. If that’s not possible?? I still have the digital version. That I can enjoy over and over.
No, I’m not ignoring the cons to do with DRM, and companies censoring ebooks, not at all. But I feel like either way there is still more pros then what this person was giving e-readers credit for. She sounded privileged honestly, she may not have a use for e-readers. But to be saying that you don’t need one, and that they are completely unnecessary….its just incorrect.
I haven’t even touched on how e-readers help others with disabilities to be able to access books. I have a friend for example that has been very unwell for many years now. And because of this, she has fatigue and strength issues. She at one stage could barely hold a book. But once she got her kindle, she was so over joyed cause she could finally enjoy books again. Kindles are so light, they have stands etc. It honestly reminds me of the people that say audiobooks arnt counted as reading and you shouldn’t do it. Sure, let’s just alienate all the people that can’t read or have vision impairment right? (For clarity, I’m being sarcastic.) Or how about all the cultures that past on the culture, history, legends etc all by word of mouth?? For centuries, way before anyone invented written script. But that’s a whole other tangent I can go off about later.
If e-readers arnt for you, that’s totally fine. But to say no one has a need for them, because physical books exist, is just closed minded. Just because you have the privilege of a huge book library and may not have use of an e-reader, doesn’t not mean that other people don’t have a great use for them.
Anyway, that’s my rant. I don’t like ranting online. But this just frustrated me so much. No hate to this person personally, I just think they weren’t open to the possibilities of how these devices are used and fulfil needs for other people that live differently.
If you read this, cool! I hope you have a good day. And enjoy reading what you are currently 💝
#txt original#txt feels#txt blog#e reader#kindle#kindle girly#amazon kindle#kobo#kobo e reader#boox Palma#boox#android#android e reader#digital books#book girly#books#bookish#bookblr#aussie#book obsessed#reading#book#booktok
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I laugh, genuinely but bitterly, at news of this kind, because it's so predictable. It's the schoolyard bully writ large, with the same dynamics, the same outcome.
Most people, you see, don't want to Cause Trouble. They don't want to Make a Scene. And mostly they hope if they're quiet and polite and Let Things Go, and Be The Bigger Person, that whatever horrible shit is happening to them will get bored and go away.
And the bullies take that as permission. And they grind a little more, and a little more, until Most People are backed into a corner as far as they will go. And the bullies don't see any danger in this because hey, nothing's happened up till now, right? Why would that change?
But see, when people have nothing left to lose, they go in one of two directions. They break, or they go fucking berserk.
Now, statistically, probably 80 percent of people - who have been raised to obey the law, to be polite, to Let Things Slide...they'll break. No judgment, I've been one of the broken and still have the cracks. It's just how a lot of people are. We don't WANT to be the bad guy. And we're raised to think that fighting back "makes us just like they are" and "even a horrible human being doesn't deserve xyz" and we'll break. We'll even choose to break.
But then there's that 20 percent or so that once they're backed right into the corner, once it's clear there's nothing more left to give, nothing left that the bullies can take, they'll snap. They'll fight. They'll kill, too, because you've already taken so much from them that there isn't a punishment left that would actually make their situation worse, so why not? Why not fight?
When you're talking about a schoolyard, that means maybe one or two students. Half a dozen at the outside, that're pushed that hard, that snap violently.
When you're talking about millions of people, however, it astonishes me (in a darkly amused way) that these corporate bullies think the solution is to press down harder. It's like swatting a snowflake onto a budding avalanche that just needed a teeny tiny push.
I have to laugh that they think adding terrorism charges will deter people who've lost their families, lost their savings, lost their entire livelihood and reason for having one. It may delay immediate copycats. People inspired, but who still have something to lose. But it won't stop the flood.
...I wonder how long it'll be, before we have enough datapoints on this graph to compare it to the rise in school shootings since the 90s?
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Justin baldoni decided to adapt It Ends With Us because he thought that stories about domestic violence, and specifically escaping and life beyond domestic violence deserved to be platformed.
Instead of being supported, he’s been mean girl’d by the cast; that’s treating the film like its this cutesy rom com : and I think this rly encapsulates everything that’s wrong with the book, and the fanbase it’s amassed
#adi.txt#it ends with us#anti colleen hoover#justin baldoni#it actually makes me so so upset like every single appearance he’s doing for this press tour#justin is talking about dv statistics and uplifting blake and uplifting colleen#he directed and starred in this film#meanwhile the rest of the cast is ltr acting like this is just another rom com#like justin’s so specific in his interviews about how the reason he made this film was to draw attention to domestic violence#and the struggles that victims go through#and hopes to reach out to victims of domestic violence and empower them thru this film#and do i think colleen hoover’s book is the right avenue for that message ?#no#but i also think that its so pathetic of everyone else involved in this film to actively disregard that vision during this press tour#and just ice justin out of his own film
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”you’re biased against men!” but am I wrong?
#radblr#prove me wrong coward#defend your scrote with statistics#and science#come on#prove me wrong with historical data#prove me wrong with facts and logic you worthless moid#feminism#prove me wrong with contextualized data#COME ON DONT BE A WEINER#stop avoiding the evidence#men whining about being accurately observed is not equivalent to reasoning#you’re evading the truth
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The time has finally come, @girlsonlytreehouse !!!
Today I shall share with you the fruits of my work. But first, allow me to take you on a journey I myself have been through while counting all of this shit down.
First things first, I decided to count the rolls in the context of the characters rather than the people playing them, simply because the luck of the actual people could not be measured accurately if I only take Riptide into consideration (and also I thought it would be more fun). The guys have several different campaigns, some that I do not have access to, so I've decided to seperate all their Riptide rolls into characters they play instead, cause then we can clearly see which character is the luckiest. But ofc if you want this to be attributed differently, the data remains unchanged, so that way you all can interpret the results however you wanted and still have all the info you need on hand.
Another issue were the advantage/disadvantage rolls. When a character rolls at advantage, they roll twice and the only roll that counts is the one that was higher, while the other is discarded and the opposite goes for disadvantage. So for example if you roll at Disadvantage and you roll a nat 20 and a 2, that nat 20 technically doesn't matter. Despite that I decided to count each adv/disadv roll anyway, because despite the fact that it does not count, it was still physically ROLLED, which means it contributes to the character's overall pool of luck. I tried to separate them at first so you guys can make your own decision whether to add them or not, but in the end I decided against it cause it was insanely hard to keep up with. There were just too many and too often, which led me to believe that it was fair enough to count everything as long as they actually rolled a dice.
Which brings me to the last complication, which is of course Gillion's Prophetic Screwup. At the beginning of the campaign Gillion was able to exchange anything that he actually rolled into a nat 20, and in return the DM can change any roll he does afterwards into a nat 1. That way there was supposed to be an equal number of wild unrolled nat 20's and nat 1's to balance Gillion out back to 0, but it didn't turn out this way. In more cases than not, Grizzly would either forget or fail to find a good place to screw Gillion over, so the ability bacame much too unbalanced. So they changed it somwhere in the middle of Edison Kingdom Arc. From then on, if Gill rolled anything from 1-10 it would automatically become a nat 1, and if he rolled from 11-20, that'd be a nat 20 instead. Either way these rolls had nothing to do with luck, as he wasn't actually rolling anything, thus I decided not to count these 'artificial' nat 20's/1's. However I did keep track of them nonetheless and I'll still give you the number of those, just separately, and from then on you guys can make your own decision on whether or not you wish to count it.
OOOFFF ALRIGHT.
Without further ado, here are the nat 20's results (up to ep106):
Gillion: 52
Chip: 58
Jay: 55
Goobleck: 8
Surprised? Yeah I was as well. First things first I never expected this to be this close. And never in my right mind could I possibly predict that it would he CHIP of all people to have the highest score here. But I've seen it with my own eyes. And tell you what. Jay had this in the bag for most of the damn series. She would consistently roll good and always when you need a good roll the most. There were times when she would have such a massive lead it was unthinkable she could loose it. But then she would just kinda...stop rolling good for a bit and allow the other two to catch up. It just wasn't as visble if you don't pay much attention, but I thought it to be cute. It's as she was waiting for them <3 But she was still mostly leading. It was only the current arc that made Chip surpass her. After his terrible luck in Feywilde, he bounced back so strongly right after, that he managed to jump in front of the luck queen herself.
And now I bet you're curious about the other side of the coin. Give it up for natural 1's!:
Gillion: 55
Chip: 53
Jay: 52
Goobleck: 1
You see, I kind of expected it to be Gill, but I need you guys to know that this wasn't the case at all times. Jay? Yes. If there is one thing that's consistent is that she had the lowest amount of natural 1s at all times almost, but the person that was suffering from nat 1 curse for a long while was Chip. In the Feywilde Arc he would be so far ahead of everyone, that I was genuinely sure that there is no way anyone catches up to him. But then he popped off in the next arc with nat 20's and Gillion? Oh my gosh, Gillion didn't disappoint. I've never seen a man fail this much let me tell you XD He ended up with the least nat 20's as well, but I thought the difference would be much higher until he didn't roll 4 fucking nat 20s in ep 100 and then this double nat 20 attack roll in the Black Sea whduihdius AND HE CAUGHT UP AS WELL, more or less.
Idunno, maybe this is just how luck works, but it truly seems that the trio shares their successes and burdens almost equally. They support each other and in return fate has their backs as well. Honestly I couldn't have hoped for better results. Also can we give shout out to Goobleck, the true MVP? He's been on the show only for a while but look at this nat1 - nat20 ratio!!! Go goop man goo!!!
So now for the additional stuff that I also counted just for fun:
*Prophethic screwup nats:
Before the rules changed Gillion replaced 8 of his rolls into natural 20s, and in return Grizzly replaced 3 of his rolls into natural 1s.
After the rules changed he only got high enough number for 4 nat 20s, and a low enough number for 7 nat 1s.
So that together makes additional 12 nat 20s and 10 nat 1s from the prophetic screwup alone. I don't think they should be added, but the numbers are there so feel free to do whatever you want with them :)
Downs and death saves:
Throughout the campaign Gillion went down 14 times and rolled 8 death saves.
Chip went down 6 times and rolled 4 death saves.
Jay went down 4 times and rolled 3 death saves.
No shocker here, Gillion dies a lot XD
Knights:
In their journey Gillion knighted 4 people: Julien Booker, Clorton, Garrieth and Duke.
Corruption score:
Thus far each character has the following amount of corruption points (Black Sea):
Gillion: 0
Chip: 2
Jay: 3
Queen: 1
Gryffon: 2 (i think, unsure abt that one, may edit later XD)
Earl: 1
That is all I have for now. I may be clinically insane :)
Good day to everyone and I hope you found this data interesting. Take care <3
#jrwi riptide#just roll with it#gillion jrwi#chip jrwi#jay jrwi#gillion tidestrider#jay ferin#jrwi goobleck#math????#i guess#insane autistic person talks about statistics for a looong time#if anyone wants something else counted i' m right here fam#GIVE ME A REASON TO REWATCH ALL OF RIPTIDE FOR THE FOURTH TIME I DARE YOU
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My sex and gender class is cool and I enjoy it bcuz it’s allllllll discussion every day and even if I disagree with people I like hearing thoughts. Expands my perspective. But it kinda weirds me out because my prof keeps talking about how lesbians have it kinda easy and we’re not that oppressed or made into outcasts as much as like… bisexuals. Or something. Thinking emoji. It’s not a competition but I just think it’s kinda weird !
#the thing about me is that my beliefs especially about the lgbt community are so nuanced and bendable that I contradict myself#my rule is basically do what you want forever + my personal beliefs should have no effect on what you do + it doesn’t matter + but I can#still be annoyed#BUT this one thing just irks me. and idk why but discussing how lesbians have less sex than literally everyone else is#well I don’t necessarily DONT believe it but I think it’s more nuanced than how my prof says#lesbians are more ~emotionally interested~ we like to ~hold hands~ and such. rubs me wrong. IDK!!#statistics are probably right but still I don’t think that’s the reason.. 😭🫶#at least not the ONLY reason. maybe it’s a part of it. but in my opinion#it’s the combination of… the effects of estrogen. socialization (women taught to be submissive+not take the lead). umm#idk. stuff like dat 🫶👍
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#garashir#inspired by some garashir fanfic tropes that are BELOVED by me <3#obviously this argument is just for funsies like two kittens playfighting#they would turn into goop and merge with each other like changelings if they could#Star Trek: Deep Space 9#today I offer you: little joke posts that only I find funny. tomorrow? statistically speaking probably the same thing.#a/b/o gave us the concept of ''can't pull out cause of the knot'' but I want a version of that from the pussy perspective#tired of the top always getting to decide these things. my idea is we're done when the ajan says we're done.#actually it's garashir so more likely it would simply be garak lying#''Sorry doctor you can't pull out because of Cardassian xenobiology reasons :( no I will not explain anything further about this btw#but it's DEFINITELY a medical necessity and not me being a freak I prommy <3''#Starky's Original Posts#text post photosets#hm. not seeing heaven for these tags I think.
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sometimes i ask my math professors why we're doing a certain thing and i dont know how to explain that i dont mean "this has no real world applications>:(" i mean what are the math applications?
it was such an exciting moment for me when i realized that since combinations/permutations are ways to find how things can be arranged, and probability is just the ways we can get something we're interested in over all the ways we could get something(want/all), combinations and permutations give us ways to find more complicated probabilities without being able to individually list all possible combinations by hand. so the "why are we doing this" for combinations/permutations is "so we can take more complicated probabilities later on". (It's also the basis for the binomial distribution!!)
without being able to understand the direction we're going with an idea it feels like a random exercise instead of the doorway to understanding more complex mathematical ideas and it also makes me feel like i don't understand how all the pieces of the class fit together.
#mathblr#i think this is the main reason that calculus feels easier than statistics for me anyway#is because calculus walks you through very obvious steps from yeah this is an idea that obviously has applications in other formulas#and they actually explain everything going on#until u hit the shortcuts but even then you get WHY you want shortcuts bc they make you use the definition of a derivative first#idk#i wish other math classes were set up like calculus#all that to say if anyone knows what a subspace is and what a basis is and what applications they have in other areas of math ill kiss u#kiss you on the mouth
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It's a little crazy to watch the dungeon meshi fandom explode. As I say this, at the start of april 2024, there are 694 dungeon meshi fics on ao3 which looks like a modest number especially if you consider that the earliest fic in the tag is from 2017. But that's not taking into account that 544 of those 694 were posted 2024 and a whopping 299 were in march 2024 alone. And considering that the average lifetime of a fic from initial idea to writing and editing to publication is months we are actually at a very early point on the exponential curve, the real explosion is yet to come.
To illustrate my point, if you look a little more closely at the fics you'll realize the vast majority of them are oneshots, not multichaptered fics. Like. Much more compared to more established fandoms.
(If you want hard numbers for proof: the number of fics updated, not posted, in march 2024 was 326. That means that of all the fics updated in march ONLY 27 were fics posted earlier than march. And of the 299 posted, only 64 weren't oneshots. For all fics updated in march 72.1% were oneshots, 27.9% not. Compare that to a randomly chosen other fandom I'm in, Deltarune, where only 35.5% of the fics updated in march 2024 were oneshots, and 64.5% were not. The difference is staggering dunmeshi literally has twice as many oneshots comparetively)
And that's because oneshots are quicker to write, while a multichaptered fic takes much more planning. The longest fic in the dunmeshi fandom tag is currently only 67K words which is impressive but nothing compared to the behemoths you usually see occupying that spot. All those longfics? Those are still coming.
#me crunching ao3 numbers for no reason again#fandom research#fandom statistics#aren't i glad i made those tags#dungeon meshi#biggest fic in deltarune is 674K btw. literally 10 times as long#dungeon meshi fic is coming so fast that WHILE I WROTE THIS POST another fic got posted i had to update the numbers
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I've referenced before how I have a big google document to keep track of every media I've ever seen in my entire life (just for reference because I like to track everything possible lol… I am the Data Collector), but recently as I was updating it, I thought of actually evaluating them to find out random percentages (like for example, out of Total Shows Watched, what percentage did I finish vs. stop watching, what percentage did I like or dislike, etc.)...
Evaluating these things is made easier by the fact that I already place everything on each subsection of the list into 6 broad ranking categories, so I don't have to go back and guess to figure out how I feel about them or anything. The categories are: Ranking 5 - overall best* (despite some criticisms of course because I'm too much of an Analyzer to ever find anything Perfect lol) Ranking 4 - more positive than neutral, but not good enough to be 5 Ranking 3 - either the good + bad negate each other, OR it's just not memorable/interesting in any way enough to be ranked higher or lower (this is the Default category ALL things are placed in if no other rank applies) Ranking 2 - maybe a few redeemable elements but largely more negatives than positives Ranking 1 - So bad that it circles around to being fascinating to observe in some way (not necessarily Funny, or Good, but just interesting somehow) Ranking 0 - Bad in a genuinely frustrating or obnoxious manner
*("best" primarily defined here as most interesting, rather than most good in a technical sense, or some other measure. I tend to value more highly whether there's something novel or thoughtful about the worldbuilding, tone, writing, base premise, etc - than about whether it's actually executed perfectly.)
And here's the amount of shows that have so far been placed into each category -
TV shows ~ Rank 5 (highest) - 20 shows ~ Rank 4 (mid-high) - 28 shows ~ Rank 3 (neutral/default/meh) - 114 shows ~ Rank 2 (mid low) -33 shows ~ Rank 1 (low low but intriguingly so) - 14 shows ~ Rank 0 (iredeemably low) - 2 shows
This would make for a total of 211 TV shows overall. However, there are 57 shows within these list marked as "didn't finish" (typically meaning I quit on the very first or second episode - but log them still to keep a record that I at least had a brief view of them).
So my total of genuinely fully watched shows would be more 154. 211 Total, but a More Accurate Total of 154.
Counting them all and using the Total Number Of The List (211) -- that means roughly 9.5% of all total shows I have ever watched (or at least attempted to watch) have been Mostly Good, 13% have been Moderately Okay, 54% have been either entirely Forgettable or some mix of good + bad that lands them right in the Neutral Middle, 15.6% have been Mostly Bad, 6.6% have been Bad (but in an interesting way), and 0.9% have been Terribly Bad.
Additionally, I didn't even get past the first two episodes of about 27% of the total.
Sooo, discounting ones I didn't finish, my total TV shows ever watched in my life would be about 154 (maybe give or take a few, assuming I might have forgotten some from very long ago).
But instead of entire life, let's just say this is the total for 'About 20 Years' (so, not counting very early childhood when I likely wouldn't remember things I saw/have no detailed recollection of them (like for example, I'm sure at some point when I was like 4yrs old I must have seen an episode of Spongebob or something, but I have zero distinct memories of it, can't quote anything of it, and barely recall the premise - so I don't count it on the list, etc.)).
In that case, 154 divided by 20 would be roughly 7.7 shows a year.
Which is actually surprisingly low considering that I often have stuff on in the background for hours whilst I make sculptures and do costumes and stuff (maybe I should have also marked some distinction between 'things I fully paid attention to' and 'things I kind of half listened to whilst sculpting', but that would further split the categories too much probably lol), but I guess a lot of that is youtube videos or random documentaries, so .. eh.. maybe I get it being lower.
Now, doing the same thing for movies-
Movies ~ Rank 5 (highest) - 4 movies (3.4% of total) ~ Rank 4 (mid-high) - 12 movies (10.3% of total) ~ Rank 3 (neutral/default/meh) - 91 movies (78.4% of total) ~ Rank 2 (mid low) - 8 movies (6.8% of total) ~ Rank 1 (low but interesting) - 1 movie (0.8% of total) ~ Rank 0 (irredeemably low) - none in this category (0%)
That makes 116 for a Total (Actually Remembered) Movies Watched In Lifetime (Or At Least In 20 Years).
116 divided by 20 is roughly 5 or 6 movies a year (I feel this has probably been skewed though by adding everything since like elementary school onwards, as I remember a lot more movies from child/teen years.. Whereas, the past 3 years I feel like I've barely seen maybe even 5 movies?? lol). I also have "Didn't Finish" marked on 18 of them. Which means I quit halfway through about 15% of the total movies.
So, a for broader summary stuff..
I seem to be less forgiving to movies than tv shows, by far. Which makes sense to me, I guess, because I love elaboration and details, so "short form" things that only last an hour or two are often lost on me a bit. My biggest complaint with movies is indeed usually walking away just wishing there had been more exposition, more scenes where characters are doing nothing, more "mindless bantering" conversations, more Quiet Downtime and Lore Elaboration and so on lol, so... of course most 1-2hr films end up feeling a bit Not Enough To Draw My Interest/Nothingy to me.
If you count 5 and 4 as "like" and rankings 2 to 0 as "dislike", then for TV shows I at least somewhat liked 48 of them, and at least somewhat disliked 47 of them.. So it's almost exactly the same lol. I'm just about equally as likely to find something bad as I am to find something redeeming about it. But overall, the largest chance is that I just won't really care much for it at all and it will be tossed into the 'neutral' pile, forgotten forever. Movies have a bit better of a balance, "liking" 16 of them, and "disliking" only 9 of them. So I'm slightly more likely to enjoy a movie than to find it annoying - though still VASTLY more likely to just not find it anything in particular, possibly not even finishing it.
ANYWAY.. this is vague and literally pointless, but like I said, I just really find information fun. Like my document where I've rated every apple flavor I've ever tried (like 40 of them now?), or reviewed every oreo flavor (32?), or ranking data from my entire 10 years of Trying To Make Friends process (out of 100 people, roughly 8% chance of a moderate compatibility, 3% chance of high), or etc. etc.. I love to have random pointless things to analyze I suppose lol.
I doubt anyone tracks things in their life in this same exact way, but I'd be interested in hearing any at least somewhat similar data !!! (like, how many TV shows you watch a year on average, and what percentage of those you like vs. dislike (if you keep track of that sort of thing), etc.)). I guess it might be easier with movies, since I think some people use those websites where you curate a list of movies you've seen and you can rate them or something, so maybe the numbers are already available on those places. :0
#maybe this is my version of spotify wrapped lol.. Lifetime Media Google Doc Wrapped.. kind of.. except I'm not going over specific titles.#I can't do this with music since I rarely EVER look for new music or add to my Youtube To MP3 folder library as I just don't really#listen to music that often. When I'm working (the majority of when I seek background noise) I need like.. people's talking voices#for some reason. Just instruments and singing are not distracting enough to me to work as background noise because theyre#almost TOO in the background if that makes sense? like if I put music on then I just tune it out and it's virtually no different#than if I were daydreaming stream of consciousness thoughts in an entirely quiet room lol. And I can't really do it with books since#essentially 100% of what I read is non-fiction. usually about some specific subject or academic topic OR stuff like#1800s magazines or cookbooks or historical people's diaries. Which is not really.. the type of thing I would#rank as easily I guess? like 'ooh yeah putting the sociology textbook in my top 5 hee hee right next to the 1920s radio recipes book' lol.#Then for games... I just sadly dont play enough of them. I've been banned from new games as I've told myself I cant play anyting#long form (no rpgs or etc) until I actually finish MY OWN game first - to keep me from wasting time. so on average#I play... 0 new games a year. ToT... I do play the sims sometimes but that's really all (which is not a new game at all since#I've been playing it on and off for years). Thus I guess movies/TV are really the only things that make sense#to collect this sort of information on. I could do youtube videos I guess also but that seems kind of strange like...#giving a rating to every single video I watch in a ranked list lol.. Especially since I would say a good 85% of the time#they are exclusively background noise whilst I'm working on something or cleaning the house or etc. and not things I pay serious attention#to. There are only a few specific topics/types/creators of videos I watch where I'm ACTUALLY sitting in front of a screen paying#direct attention to the content (usually when it's educational or political things). Everything else is too mindless to even rank.#ANYWAY... ever analyzing my little hermit Weird Relationship To Media (in the sense of seemingly not processing or getting the same#things out of it as many other seem to). I think that can contribute sometimes to the whole difficulty socializing and stuff#since our culture is very centered around media consumption generally speaking. People want to talk about The New Movie that came#out or The Big TV Show Of The Year. and for me it's like.. highly likely I just plain have NOT seen it. Or if i have. statistically#I most likely was entirely ambivalent if not slightly negative towards it lol. Which just kind of takes the steam out of a 'fun' 'casual'#conversation and you seem like a bit of a bummer if most of your only feedback is either 'idk what that is' or 'oh yea... i did#see that one.... i didnt like it all that much though... I think it'd be better with elves in it.. and 7 hours longer..'' lol..#Which I am not disliking things in a 'grr i hate it bc its popular'/just to be contrarian way. I actually dislike that mindset/find it#silly (by striving so hard to be counterculture you are thus still defining yourself by the whims of external culture - just in the#opposite direction. but are still just as preoccupied with the mainstream (going against it) as everyone else. etc. lol..)) In my#case I think it IS just having niche hyperspecific tastes.. for example- it peeves me when cell phones are in media bc I dont want to be#reminded at ALL of the real world. so.. cross off anything set in modern times. so on & etc. Judging all things by these weird criteria lol
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I don’t know how to explain to you that black people saying “hi I’m a person and I don’t appreciate this guy saying dehumanising things about me” is not the reason why the US government is doing this, or, for that matter, that if all Americans consistently voted the way black Americans statistically did in this last election, the US would have had public healthcare by now.
It is incredibly clear that Luigi Mangione TERRIFIES the leeches at the top. The entire media machine, the law itself, it has all been focused on disassembling the class consciousness generated by his actions. They've tried to dig up every shred of dirt on him, they're censoring his name, they're setting the dogs of corporate media on him, they're planting evidence on him to prevent bail. And it's barely working, but it's technically working. At this point, anyone with a negative word to say about him or his actions is a class traitor
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