#in both directions!

[tanadrin]

This might sound like a gotcha but I promise it's an honest question: do you think you're better at analyzing polls than Nate Silver? Or do you think he sees the same weirdness that you do but isn't talking about it for some reason?

The stuff you're saying sounds superficially plausible but my priors give him a lot more weight than you, especially without a specific case for why he might be getting it wrong.

I think some of the premises of this ask are weird. Bullet points for clarity.

You don’t need to be Nate Silver to look at a poll’s crosstabs and go “20% of African-Americans saying they will vote for Trump seems super unlikely.”

Nate Silver’s whole thing is modeling elections based on (in part) polls. This is a useful exercise. Even if polls are being weird, doing this may provide some nonzero amount of useful information.

While I couldn’t remotely do what Nate Silver does, Nate Silver’s job relies fundamentally on the assumption polls are an accurate metric to some extent. There are reasons to think, however, that this year they are unusually inaccurate (see point 1)

You didn’t need to be a particle physicist to doubt that the faster-than-light neutrinos result from a few years ago was in fact an error. As it turned out to be. Basic contextual knowledge like whether FTL particles are likely to be a thing—or how various American demographic groups historically vote—means you do not have to approach all subject-specific questions with total Pyrrhonian skepticism, even if you do not have expertise in them.

Lots of people who do this shit for a living *are* talking about the weirdness in the polls, including the new guy running 538, and Nate Cohn over at the NYT. Silver may be too, I haven’t been following him since he left 538.

They may be factoring in the weirdness to some extent in their own modeling, but this is risky! You don’t wanna engage in arbitrary “unskewing” like amateurs tried to do in 2020, and pollsters don’t always release their full data and methodology. So it’s hard to figure out exactly what’s going on.

Nonetheless we do know that poll response rates are at an all time low—much lower even than they were four years ago.

None of what I have posted about the polls and polling is original; these are all points people much smarter than me in this area have talked about and continue to debate. I know what arguments I find persuasive, but if you disagree, that’s cool. I don’t think we will have any solid answers until the election actually happens.

[druid-for-hire]

[image id: a four-page comic. it is titled "immortality” after the poem by clare harner (more popularly known as “do not stand at my grave and weep”). the first page shows paleontologists digging up fossils at a dig. it reads, “do not stand at my grave and weep. i am not there. i do not sleep.” page two features several prehistoric creatures living in the wild. not featured but notable, each have modern descendants: horses, cetaceans, horsetail plants, and crocodilians. it reads, “i am a thousand winds that blow. i am the diamond glints on snow. i am the sunlight on ripened grain. i am the gentle autumn rain.” the third page shows archaeopteryx in the treetops and the skies, then a modern museum-goer reading the placard on a fossil display. it reads, “when you awaken in the morning’s hush, i am the swift uplifting rush, of quiet birds in circled flight. i am the soft stars that shine at night. do not stand at my grave and cry.” the fourth page shows a chicken in a field. it reads, “i am not there. i did not die” / end id]

a comic i made in about 15 hours for my school’s comic anthology. the theme was “evolution”

[infernal-lamb]

Searching your eyes for the saint is an act of futility

something that's just been on my mind recently!

[antariies]

astarion is like one of those little crusty white dogs to me. yknow

[dear-ao3]

[notherpuppet]

This is why his character is so compelling

[ofswordsandpens]

adding to the "there should have been more genuine tension within the seven" train of thought, it would have been funny if the Argo II, technically being a ship, meant it fell under Percy's power domain and he could control it all at whim, rendering all the carefully crafted controls Leo built useless if Percy felt like being an asshole

[vaguely-concerned]

My two cents on how much of Mind!Varric is Rook’s mind trying to fill the blank space and how much is Solas actively talking through a convenient blood magic paper doll of the mind: I think it's a mix of both, a truly collaborative psychosocial horrorshow if you would, but waaaay more towards the second. It feels too directed and tactical at times to be anything else. Rook's mind is willing to go along with the denial phase as far as it can fucking carry them to not have to face the grief and regret and does its part in papering over details that don’t make any sense, the way brains will strive to create coherent meaning even out of deeply confusing input, but to my understanding it's a collaborateur in how that plays out, not the instigator or control center. Solas is using it as a path to agency and to gather insight into Rook as a person unguarded as he can't count on in his own guise. (That stoic option that leads to him being like 'oh I see you're cautiously denying me access to your inner life. well. at least you still have Varric to talk to. y'know as an outlet :)'. You absolute BITCH Solas! That alone convinced me that he HAS to have an active hand in it on some level.)

My guess is that it takes considerable effort on Solas’ part to make Mind!Varric do anything more involved or complicated than seeming to sit up in bed and give casual commentary, and that’s why he keeps having eerie five minute shallow pep talks with you before he announces he conveniently needs a nap aaanyway good luck kid you got this haha. When he’s just spouting NPC lines from his bedrest, I’m ready to believe that could be Rook’s mind being allowed to improv lines for him more freely because it’s less about Solas trying to get something out of them or working an angle and more ‘Still here! Still totally alive and fine and the mentor figure you know and love and trust :) don’t even worry about it! Thankfully there is no war in Ba Sing Sei, as we all know’ upkeep work lol. Rook’s mind is allowed to set the tone of Varric, the outlines, but not always the content. 

AND, on a (beautifully fucked up) character psychology level, I feel like Solas is indulging in actually getting to be the good supportive mentor figure to Rook with one hand to assuage the guilt he feels about what he's done -- and what he's going to do -- to them with the other. Same internal logic as he uses in Trespasser about the Qun. ‘Almost everyone is going to die from the course of action I’m doggedly pursuing eventually. But at least I can make their last years happier and freer and kinder than they would have been otherwise. and that kind of makes up for it right. a little bit. doesn't it. doesn't that make it better at least. I need that to make it better)'. Did I really take your beloved mentor and friend from you if you don’t know yet that I did? Some philosophers would argue not really! So it’s probably almost ok actually. Isn’t it even a little noble that I’m taking all this grief and guilt on myself and shielding you for now. With undertones that I’m not sure he would realize himself (and might be mortified by if he did) that he is so incredibly lonely, and even a dishonest and indirect emotional connection is more than nothing when you’re that desperate. In this setup he gets idk. Both the control he craves so incredibly badly in relationships and over himself, and the scraps, the fading afterimages, of intimacy and warmth and companionship, even second hand. The one thing Solas and Rook agree on deep deep down is that they really wish Varric weren't gone. They're handshake memeing this in the saddest and most creepy way possible.

I think an important element too is that Solas needs Rook and their team to *succeed* —  up to a certain point. He needs someone to hold the two other elven mean girls off until he can get out of here. Ideally, in a perfect world, even do all the hard work of killing them so he can swoop in at the end and do his thing when both sides are exhausted and out of resources to stop him, and then Bob’s your uncle! Same logic as he was using with Corypheus, and after that worked out so well, too! King of choosing to never learn from a single solitary mistake he’s ever made even though i fully believe he could have the capacity to Fen’Harel <3 The underlying idea isn’t flawed, you see, it was just unforeseen circumstances getting in the way. This time for sure it’ll all work out the way I cleverly imagined it in my head beforehand. Cue By Talos this can’t be happening etc. in the form of a statue almost crushing him like a bug. 

So he's providing guidance and forging Rook into a leader from two angles: one Rook might not trust, and one they probably will. Shaping them into what he needs slowly and carefully. He’s helping you hone your team into their most effective state, as he might have done with his own agents back in the day, setting up his chess pieces even if he has to squint through two glimpsed realities to do it haha. Pincer maneuver of an insidious stealth mentor you never asked for. Also… at one point mind Varric gives you a whole little monologue about how Solas' problem is that he’s always seen his interpersonal connections as flaws and see where it’s landed him, all alone and the worst part? it hasn’t even worked. it’s all been for nothing he’s back where he began with nothing to show for it but his mistakes. Like...that has such strong 'uh okay happy to play your therapist from two rooms away here what the fuck kind of traumadump is this' energy to me, I’m not sure Rook like. Thinks that much about Solas as a private person. So much of Solas' self-loathing and futile insights into his own flaws seem to shine through in Mind!Varric's dialogue all the time — I just can't believe that there's no guiding hand behind it as it were. 

Most of all. I feel like people underestimate the degree to which Solas is incredibly funny. As in, he has a very consistent and recognizable sense of humour. It’s one of my very favourite things about him. We must remember — it is crucial that we always keep in mind — Orlesian accent and wig Solas from May The Dread Wolf Take You (my beloved, the explanation for why I love this dude even with the. All of the everything else. No one does it quite like him). He is not at all above doing things or adding little flourishes for his own obscure amusement, in fact that seems to me to be one of his most consistent traits. The Randy Dowager Quarterly comment Varric has? The ‘Maybe this is the Dread Wolf’s revenge. Forcing us to house sit for him’ thing? To Me this is 100% Solas amusing himself in his boring Fade jail surrounded by the screaming hellscape of all his regrets. Source: it came to me as divine revelation through pure vibes trust me bro 

If nothing else I find it much more narratively interesting personally if the connection between Rook and Solas really is that defenselessly intimate and entwined (and so unbalanced!), and the sense of violation and invasion and betrayal afterwards consequently all the more nauseatingly intense. Even if you kept him at arm’s length in the open, he’s been under your skin the whole time, looking around, gathering what he needs to destroy you, wearing the face of a friend. Regretfully, probably, but choosing to do it every step of the way anyway. (Sound familiar, Inquisitor? Solas doesn’t have that many tricks when you actually look at it, he keeps returning to old tried and true ones like a dog with a bone haha.) Maybe he even genuinely meant some of it as mercy, which only makes it so much worse. It makes his sin against his own core principles of autonomy and the freedom of all beings in mind, spirit and body so much more juicily grave if it’s something he pursues actively and consistently, rather than it half-falling into his lap as a happy accident mainly orchestrated by Rook’s own subconscious. Solas, too, is at his very lowest point, the closest to giving in and becoming his own antithesis fully that he’s ever been, and it makes the choice of whether you still reach out your hand to him one last time or not all the more impactful and difficult.

[commsroom]

the u.s.s. horrible unending nightmare 💥 (once again from the incredible @hehearse)

[itsmeimcathy]

faust (1858) by charles gounod | le fantôme de l'opèra (1910) by gaston leroux | wuthering heights (1939) by william wyler | la belle et la bête (1947) by jean cocteau | labyrinth (1986) by jim henson | van helsing (2004) by stephen sommers | the phantom of the opera (2004) by joel schumacher | crimson peak (2014) by guillermo del toro | consumed (2014) by david cronenberg | nosferatu (2024) by robert eggers

[camembri]

zoro and sanji are sooooo into promises and oaths it's unbearable. dork ass losers probably exchanged vows before they even had their first kiss. imagine sitting at the Sunny's dining room table at 8am sharp and you hear stuff like "nobody else can kill you, I feel it in my bones, I will chase you to the edges of the earth to make sure of it" whole time they're arguing about who has to pass the salt to usopp. everyone else thinks they're banging but this is all a prelude to like holding hands or something.

[tanadrin]

My most reactionary opinion is that a well-rounded education is actually a good idea, and you should in fact be forced to sit through subjects you aren’t necessarily interested in in school sometimes.

This is in substantial part nakedly self-interested: I see way too many people with an excessively one-sided education with absolutely nonsense dogshit takes on fields outside their experience, and I would prefer if there was less of that sort of thing in the future.

[sthilarions]

During a case many years ago, a witch made a poppet (roughly equivalent to the popular conception of a “voodoo doll”) of Edwin. They defeated the witch soundly and got the poppet, but there’s no safe way to destroy it. The only place Edwin and Charles trust as safe enough to keep it is inside Charles’s backpack, where no one but Charles could possibly get to it.

Charles largely forgets about it, buried deep deep down in the bag, until Edwin is held captive, less than a year after their jaunt to Hell, and there’s absolutely no way to get to him until the portal opens again at the next full moon, and he’s going crazy with worry, imagining Edwin in all sorts of misery without Charles not even able to so much as comfort him. He’s digging mindlessly through the bag when he gets to the poppet, and, he realizes, there is this one thing he can do.

He pulls it out with a care he wouldn’t give to a Faberge egg, because this is the most precious thing in the world, in any world, and looks at it for a moment. Then he reaches out ever so gently and strokes its hair. He murmurs reassurances to it - it’s alright, I’m sorry, I love you. He sings lullabies, curls around it and hugs it against him so, so carefully, tilts his head down and presses kisses to its soft curl-covered head.

He doesn’t let the poppet go for even a moment on all the days until the full moon returns, even as he’s preparing for battle, preparing to absolutely fucking obliterate the bastards that are holding Edwin.

Just as the portal opens, he finally places the poppet back in his bag, in the safest, warmest corner. He hefts the arsenal in his arms and strapped to his back and floating around him and charges through.

He tears through the stronghold in minutes, and he does literally mean through - he’s left a trail of smoking rubble behind him where ghost-proof walls used to be - and finally, finally gets to Edwin, and -

“Ah, Charles, there you are. Not to worry, I’m quite alright. There has been some sort of force - “

Charles doesn’t even hear him as he wraps himself around Edwin, and his body follows the same motions it has for weeks now, stroking hair, pressing kisses, murmuring muffled you’re alright I love you you’re alright I’m sorry I love you I’m sorrys into Edwin’s hair, which is even softer in reality than on the poppet, and Edwin says -

“Ah. That was you.”

Charles can’t see or hear anything other than Edwin, at the moment, but he can’t not see Edwin, so he has a very clear view as Edwin reaches his arms out and, with a few words, takes control of all the magical weapons and orbs and so forth that have been trailing after Charles.

And he hears when Edwin says “Well, then, Charles, shall we depart?”

And he feels it when Edwin lifts him as effortlessly as he lifted the poppet, holding him so he can keep his nose buried against Edwin’s neck as Edwin blasts his way out.

And he definitely feels it when, a few very loud minutes later, they’re back in their office, and Edwin’s head turns to meet one of his kisses.

“It’s alright, Charles. I’m sorry I left you alone. I love you.”

[helpimstuckinafandom]

The fact that we got both Brennan and Lily's reactions in the same shot

[demigods-posts]

something about percy nearly dying at luke's hand at the end of tlt ruffles my bones. because imagine feeling like a burden to anyone who dared to care for you. imagine blaming yourself for the death of your mother. imagine grieving in black and white amid a world of color. and then an older brother sees you for all of your sorrow and pain. your cries for help that go unanswered. your longing for a reason to breathe again. and becoming someone you look forward to confiding in when the dust settles. only to discover that their source of light was merely a flame. and the summer air was always meant to burn you alive. truly haunting.

[chloesimaginationthings]

Micheal feeling comfortable enough around Vanessa to show her his scars:

Then Vanny struggling to not make every single interaction with Mike awkward or stressful:

It’s so funny their interactions are totally the opposite