#by-election

[tomorrowusa]

Labour picked up yet another seat from the Conservative Party in a by-election in the constituency of Blackpool South.

Labour has taken Blackpool South from the Conservatives as voters deserted the Tories in a resounding Westminster by-election victory. Chris Webb secured a 26.3% swing in the marginal Lancashire seat, easily wiping out the Tories' 2019 general election majority of 3,690 to win by 7,607. Conservative David Jones only beat Reform UK's Mark Butcher into second place by 117 votes. The by-election was triggered by former Tory MP Scott Benton's resignation.

By itself, flipping one seat doesn't put Labour in the driver's seat in London; but it's significant because of the margin and because it's part of a series of repeated recent Conservative by-election losses to Labour and to the Liberal Democrats.

But wait, there's more!

There were various local elections around England and a few in Wales which coincided with the by-election in Blackpool South.

107 local councils in England held elections and there were also contests for mayor and public safety officials in a number of localities.

Here are the areas which held council elections. Some councils held elections for all council members while others had elections for half or some other fraction of the councils. This map shows party control prior to the election.

While not nationwide, the council elections were spread over much of England.

In any case, the Conservatives lost control of 10 of the 16 councils they had controlled. Labour picked up 8 and the Lib Dems gained 2. The number of councils with no overall party control or control by minor local parties remained the same.

But council control stats don't tell the whole story.

The overall number of elected councilors showed the Conservatives falling into third place behind Labour and the Lib Dems. It also shows the Green Party making inroads even though they did not gain control of any councils.

A number of localities held elections for mayor.

In London, Labour's Sadiq Khan was elected to a third term.

In Manchester, Labour Mayor Andy Burnham was easily re-elected. His nickname among supporters up there is the King in the North. ⚔️

Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson provided some unintentional amusement on election day. He's responsible for enacting UK voter ID laws. He was not allowed to vote when he first showed up at the polling station because he had forgotten to bring his ID.

Boris Johnson barred from voting under his own voter ID rules

In summary from the BBC...

A general election must be held no later than late January. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak may look at the terrible results and decide that an early June election would not go well for his Conservatives. And because elections between mid June and the end of August tend to be unpleasant surprises for the governing party (Conservatives 1945) (Labour 1970), the UK would probably not see an election for parliament until at least mid-September. I'd bet a double espresso on October.

Even if Rishi waits until the very last possible day, things are unlikely to get any better for the Conservative Party. Electoral Calculus shows only two possible outcomes of a parliamentary election: 98% chance of a Labour majority and a 2% chance of a Labour plurality. Nobody is seriously talking about Conservatives being in charge after an election – regardless of timing.

BTW: Blame Salford for the delay in this post. They didn't announce their results until well into Sunday. Just couldn't post until all 107 councils had been decided.

[beauty-funny-trippy]

[raddagher]

Trump voters on tiktok are EXTREMELY mad about the following:

They just found out what tariffs are

They just found out what denaturalization is

They (particularly black and Hispanic trump voters) just found out that other trump voters are racist

Leftists and liberals don't want to be their friends (they are furious about this)

Leftists keep telling them they hope they get what they voted for (they are really mad about this too)

[crushpdf]

Make the most of the next two months

Get all your vaccines

Travel while we have a functioning DOT

Read and buy books on feminism, anti-racism, pro-lgbt

Attend drag shows

Don't skip any of your classes

Read and buy history books

Find your out-of-state networks

Learn to carry cash

Get birth control solutions

Support the Biden/Harris administration

Postpone large purchases and save money

Be careful of what you say online, like un-ambiguous attacks against the incoming administration, especially in spaces that contain your full name or personal information

Feel free to add on.

[useless-englandfacts]

oh someone at the guardian has lost the will to live

[destiel-news-at-eight]

[milo-hypno]

I'm certain this is on Tumblr somewhere, but I haven't seen it around, so I'm sharing it myself

[boy-gender]

To all the trans people who see this tonight, no matter what happens, we will survive. Trans people will still be here 4 years from now and 10 years from now and 100 years from now and tomorrow. We have always existed and we always will. The world cannot unlearn about us; we are too public, too loud, too beloved, too present. Ill be here tomorrow. Please stay here with me.

[nedcaratacus]

[tomorrowusa]

In the UK, the Labour Party just flipped a seat in a by-election. Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been doing this quite a bit recently.

This time it was in Scotland in the constituency of Rutherglen and Hamilton West. Labour support skyrocketed over results in the last general election. The seat had previously been held by a member of the scandal-plagued Scottish National Party (SNP) which has 44 seats in Parliament.

Labour has defeated the SNP to win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. The party's candidate, Michael Shanks, took the Westminster seat with 17,845 votes - more than double the number polled by the SNP's Katy Loudon. The result was a swing of 20.4% from the SNP to Labour. The by-election was called after former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier was ousted by her constituents for breaking Covid rules. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said it was a "seismic" night and that people in Rutherglen and Hamilton West had sent "a clear message".

This was the second-best result for Labour in this constituency since the second Margaret Thatcher win.

The ruling Conservative Party saw its support drop by 11.1 points in Rutherglen and Hamilton West. It's their latest disappointment in the unusual number of by-elections which have taken place since the 2019 general election.

But the worst may be yet to come for the Conservatives.

I was looking at a YouGov/The Times poll taken in the UK in early October and noticed something astonishing. Only 2% of those polled in the 18 to 24 age group said they would vote Conservative. Even when poll results are weighted by likelihood of voting, that number creeps up to just 4%.

If that's too small to see, check out the PDF for full poll results.

I don't regard polls as infallible, but this looks downright miserable for the future of the party of Brexit.

The slightly less poor Conservative standing with the 25 to 49 group (10% raw, 15% weighted) shows that the longtime trend of voters becoming more conservative as they age is not as strong as it might have been in the past.

The next general election must be held no later than 28 January 2025. Though it would probably be held sometime between May and December of 2024. Of the 21 general elections since 1945, 15 have taken place in May, June, or October.

[pansexual-lilychen]

[adragonsoulart-blog]

Hey, the ACLU is getting people to send letters to your Reps to have Congress pass the No Kings Act.

This bill is to ensure that even sitting presidents are held liable for their actions. That NOBODY is above the law.

Their goal is 150k messages sent and at the time of writing this they're about 2.1k off from that goal!

ACLU gives you a prefilled message that you can edit to send to make the process easier, and will send it out for you.

This only takes a few minutes!

[strawlessandbraless]

What an unsurprising & completely expected turn of events that literally everyone saw coming 😮

Source 🔗

Free 🔗

[themunflower]

Project 2025 ain't gonna roll out all at once. So what we're gonna wanna do is make passing each individual part of it as difficult as possible, so there's less to undo once we finally get this country back on the rails.