#Iran-US nuclear deal talks

[heritageposts]

Harris has been a staunch supporter of Israel for years. In 2017 she addressed the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s (AIPAC) annual conference and reminded attendees that the first resolution she co-sponsored as a senator was aimed at combating “anti-Israel bias” at the United Nations. “Let me be clear about what I believe. I stand with Israel because of our shared values, which are so fundamental to the founding of both our nations,” she told the crowd. In 2018 she gave an off-the-record speech to the organization, but eventually released her comments. In that speech she claimed that she raised money for the Jewish National Fund as a Girl Scout. “Having grown up in the Bay area, I fondly remember those Jewish National Fund boxes that we would use to collect donations to plant trees for Israel,” she told the audience. “Years later, when I visited Israel for the first time, I saw the fruits of that effort and the Israeli ingenuity that has truly made a desert bloom.”

For those unfamiliar with the Jewish National Fund (JNF), they're a Zionist organization that has been instrumental in the ethnic cleansing of Palestine.

See Stop the JNF for more information on their history, the way they operate, and their decades-long campaign of greenwashing (i.e. destroying native plants, crops, and agriculture under the banner of 'making the desert bloom').

Continuing, the Mondoweiss article goes:

“The vast majority of people understand the importance of the State of Israel,” she added later. “Both in terms of its history and its present in terms of being a source of inspiration on so many issues, which I hope we will talk about, and also what it means in terms of the values of the United States and those values that are shared values with Israel, and the importance of fighting to make sure that we protect and respect a friend, one of the best friends we could possibly have.” While running for President in 2019, Harris was praised by the lobbying group Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI) for running to the right of Obama on the Iran deal. On the campaign trail Harris told Kat Wellman, a voter affiliated with DMFI, that she would reenter the agreement but “strengthen it” by “extending the sunset provisions, including ballistic missile testing, and also increasing oversight.” “I was very impressed with her. I thought she gave an excellent speech, she gave a very detailed, responsive answer to my question,” Wellman told a local paper after the exchange. “I’m pro-Israel, so I was I was very concerned and all about making sure we limit nuclear missiles in any country that could possibly destroy us all. I thought her answer was very good.” Harris has condemned the BDS movement and claimed that is “based on the mistaken assumption that Israel is solely to blame for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.” However, she voted against an anti-BDS bill in 2019 citing First Amendment concerns.

For the full article, which includes Kamala's response to Israel post Al-Aqsa Flood, see Mondoweiss (July 22, 2024)

[girlactionfigure]

🟪 MORE SPIES CAUGHT, HAMAS HUMAN SHIELD STRATEGY PROVEN - Real time from Israel  

ISRAEL REALTIME - Connecting to Israel in Realtime

A Gut’a Chol HaMoed from Israel - happy Succot intermediate holy days.

( PHOTO - doing your best to make a Sukkah in Lebanon. )

🔅END OF DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME in Israel, this Saturday night 2:00 AM. Change clocks back 1 hour, computers and phones should auto-adjust.▪️

❗️MORE SPIES CAUGHT.. 7 residents of east Jerusalem were arrested on suspicion of planning to eliminate a nuclear scientist and a mayor - on behalf of Iran.

⭕LEBANON - ANTI-AIRCRAFT FIRE at IDF JETS from HEZBOLLAH per Al Jazeera with video (not shared here), 23 mm anti-aircraft fire.

⭕HEZBOLLAH FIRES LONG RANGE MISSILE(S) this morning, alerts from Zichron Yaakov through north Tel Aviv.

Hezbollah for long range launches 1-5 missiles (so far).  With the low number and longer flight time, interception has been 100%.  Because of high altitude and speed of the flight, the scatter pattern for the debris covers a huge area. That is why a small number of missiles results in a large alert area in central Israel.

The opposite is occurring in the north, where Hezbollah is firing 20-110 short range rockets in a barrage, therefore each alert area is 1 or multiple rockets inbound.

⭕HAIFA PORT WORKERS GET THREATENING SMS.. Haifa port workers received messages Monday which stated that the port's system had been hacked and that they should leave the place as it would be the target of a missile attack.

⭕HAIFA - KRAYOT.. strong explosion without warning as an incoming rocket hits a nearby open area.

♦️LEBANON - HEAVY OVERNIGHT AIRSTRIKES across parts of Beirut and other areas.

♦️LEBANON - news report: boy killed working his shop due to Israeli STRIKE ON THE ROCKET LAUNCHER IN THE BACK space being rented by Hezbollah - reported straight like that.

♦️LEBANON - MASS EXODUS from Beirut continues, both sides of the highway going OUT.

♦️LEBANON - BUNKER UNDER HOSPITAL CAUSES PANIC.. Following the IDF spokesman's announcement regarding the Hezbollah cash-vault bunker under the al-Sakhal hospital in Harat Kharik in Dahiya in Beirut, hysteria began in the area surrounding the hospital as people tried to flee assuming an incoming IDF attack.

🔹US VS HOUTHIS $$.. The cost of the damage suffered by the US military so far is $186 million just from the downing of the MQ-9 Reaper drones.

❗️HAMAS’s MANIPULATIONS & INTENTIONAL HUMAN SHIELDS.. (WSJ) “As Arab mediators tried to speed up cease-fire talks, (Hamas leader) Sinwar urged his comrades in Hamas’s political leadership based outside of Gaza to REFUSE concessions. High civilian casualties would create worldwide pressure on Israel, Sinwar said in a message.

Sinwar messaged Hamas officials, urging them to refuse a hostage deal. Hamas had the upper hand in negotiations, Sinwar said, citing internal political divisions within Israel, cracks in Netanyahu’s wartime coalition and mounting U.S. pressure to alleviate the suffering in Gaza.”

▪️SERIOUS CRIMINAL INCIDENT - KFAR QASIM.. (Israeli Arabi/Bedouin town near Rosh Ha’ayin) 3 young people, ages 17, 17, 20, stabbed, critical condition, CPR.

▪️TRUMP SAYS.. Trump on the talks for a ceasefire in Lebanon: I spoke with people from Lebanon and to my surprise they want it (the attacks on Hezbollah) to continue as long as possible.

▪️AID PROFIT..  IDF: Paul Landes, head of the economic warfare staff at the Ministry of Defense, refuses to answer the question of whether Hamas makes money from humanitarian aid.

[renegade0897]

Seeing this fucker's face makes me sick or destroys my day or vibe after seeing his true colors come out.

Excuse me for being an "Oscar Piastri fan" but this Australian doesn't choke women in clubs or make rude sexual jokes about women on a Twitch stream or ask fans for fucking nudes or even have the fucking balls to say regarding a fucking woman-hating Constitution-violating dictatorial manbaby in the making that "you gotta have respect" for him after that CLEARLY FAKED assassination attempt and even had the guts to take a photo with him at the Miami Grand Prix.

Just so we're clear once again and yes I AM ADDING POLITICS HERE. Just a teeny bit.

The manbaby dictator in the making this idiot was talking to is the same man who was willing to use nuclear weapons on North Korea, the same man who gave the locations of nuclear-powered submarines to a Russian Foreign Minister in the Oval Office. The same man who wanted to fight HIS OWN MILITARY ADVISERS in dealing with fucking Afghanistan and Iran. The same man who literally scared the shit out of China it resulted in the Chinese government and military to call the highest-ranking uniformed officer in the US military to ask if the former President's mental state was going from unhinged to beyond suicidal. The same man who said "grab women by the pussy" and fucking get away with it.

Let this sink in. This guy has 2 sisters and a niece. And his fucking mouth runs like the rudest fucking entitled fratboy who has fucked every girl in the campus and is a self-centered prick with Bonapartism syndrome. Go fuck yourself you disgruntled pelican. 🖕🖕🖕🖕

[oneofthosecrazycatladies]

One thing that I wish more people talked about in regards to this presidential race is the international consequences.

You think Tr*mp gives a shit about the situation in the Middle East or Ukraine? Of course he doesn’t.

If you care, at all, about international conflicts. If you’ve protested on behalf of Palestine or Israel, believe it or not, Joe Biden is your guy.

Iran just elected a reformist president who is interested in improving relations with the US. Iran is also on the threshold of expanding their nuclear program. In 2015, there was a proposed deal between the US and Iran to de-escalate, but that proposal was killed. By D*nald Tr*mp. If Tr*mp gets re-elected, then Iran will go ahead with their nuclear program and when Iran has nuclear weapons, you don’t think they’ll use them considering all the tensions in the Middle East right now?

If D*nald Tr*mp gets elected, he’s just gonna play the fucking fiddle while the world burns.

Joe Biden has absolutely made mistakes in international politics, but at least Biden will actually take advice and listen to protests.

[eretzyisrael]

ny Nils A. Haug

[I]t clearly looks as if the Biden administration just wants to please its terrorist-sponsoring adversaries, Iran and Qatar, by allowing their prized client, Hamas, to win the war.

Regrettably, Iran does not seem to be guided by the same humanitarian, ethical, or "natural law principles" embraced by Israel and the West.

A jihadist in Iran's premier militia, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)... probably sees the job of the IRGC as driving the US out of the Middle East so that Iran can continue to "Export the Revolution" without interference.

It is with good reason that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu complains that the US is withholding, or "slow-walking," military supplies. In Ukraine, for instance, badly needed arms are always "being delivered" but somehow never manage to arrive until long after they might actually have helped.

Although Israel's leaders are well aware of the immense danger presented by Iran, the US and other Western allies evidently cannot be relied upon to prevent Iran from completing its nuclear weapons program. The US appears to like talking, and talking about talking, diplomacy backed up by talking, verbal "understandings" so long as they have no teeth, then paying what looks like bribe money for adversaries not to "make waves," presumably at least not before the America's upcoming November election.

The Biden administration, it seems, would rather deal with threatening situations via... worthless promises from Iran, Russia, China, the Taliban, the Palestinians or whoever else will offer appeasements.

The critical point is that Israel is fighting to safeguard not just its own nation, but the West and the Free World as well. The battle at the moment seems between preserving freedom or having it extinguished by the forces of barbarism, autocracies and theocrats, but most of all by the passivity of the West.... Silky, stealth aggressors include Qatar -- the consigliere of all Islamic terror groups -- which uses money and its media network Al-Jazeera, not military aggression, as its means of persuasion.

Sadly, the Biden administration appears to view Israel not as a sovereign nation but a US satrapy. It is hardly a secret that the US has been trying to oust Israel's elected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and replace him presumably with a subordinate. That US puppet would supposedly be delighted to have a terrorist Palestinian state next door administered by the terrorist godfather, Qatar, and be delighted to see Iran have as many nuclear weapons as it likes.

If Obama ostensibly conceived of this arrangement [the 2015 "nuclear deal"] to "balance the influence" of Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, the plan has failed colossally. Saudi Arabia, for all its faults, has not tried to enlarge its territory....

At present, both the Biden administration in the US and opposition in Israel to its current government seem to be trying to muscle Netanyahu out. US Senator Chuck Schumer, a Democrat who happens to be Jewish, declared in mid-March that Netanyahu had "lost his way" and called for "new elections" -- not in the Senator's own country, the US, but in that of a sovereign ally, Israel. Would he have called for "new elections" in England, Germany, Italy or France? Biden, unsurprisingly, quickly "embraced Schumer's speech."

Many, including some who might be looking longingly at Netanyahu's job, have advocated that "Hamas cannot be defeated." Meanwhile, Netanyahu has been doing exactly that.

The US and others have tried to claim that before defeating an adversary, one must know what will happen after the fighting stops, and that destroying Hamas's military capability will just create another whole generation of Gazans who hate Israelis and Jews. Before defeating Hitler, however, no one had suggested that it was important to know what would happen "after the fighting stopped"; the same holds true for Imperial Japan....at present, both Germany and Japan are solid allies of the US and the West. There are probably still Nazis in Germany, but they no longer have the "means, capability or opportunity" to disrupt Europe.

The US appears to be doing the bidding of its terrorist-supporting collaborators, Iran and Qatar, and their supporters -- potential voters in America's heartland -- and those who want Hamas to survive to "attack, time and again, until Israel is annihilated."

All that is required is to make sure that Israel has the ammunition and weapons it needs to fight on our behalf, to make sure they are delivered immediately, and then get out of the way.

[originalleftist]

Since we have mounting tensions with Iran again, in addition to the ongoing Israel-Gaza war AND the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and a lot of people posting advocating extreme "solutions" with maximal goals, a reminder:

It is very, very hard to impose major change on a nation state from outside in the modern world- and pretty much impossible if that country is nuclear, for reasons that should be abundantly obvious.

So when we talk about how we're going to deal with Russia, or Iran's bullshit, or end the war in the Middle East, or deal with (God forbid) another Trump Presidency... understand that the rest of the world can say what it thinks should happen, and can exert some indirect pressure in the form of diplomacy, sanctions, etc... But really major territorial or regime changes can ONLY come from within those countries, with the consent and active involvement of their own people.

This is true to some extent of any country of any great size or population, as occupying another country is extremely costly, and there are not the disparities in technology or unfamiliar diseases that allowed European colonialism of old to succeed- nor, thankfully, do I think that the modern world is quite as politically forgiving of simply wiping out or enslaving a people and annexing their land as it used to be.

But it's ESPECIALLY true if it's a nuclear state. Which, to date, includes:

The United States of America

Russia

China

The United Kingdom.

France.

India.

Pakistan.

Israel.

North Korea.

And let's be realistic, since the US has said that Iran's at the point where they could probably build a nuke in a week or two if they want to, we can potentially add:

Iran.

If you want to change the basic structure, government, or borders of any of those countries, then your solution MUST be one that enough people within those countries will consent to, and actively support.

Otherwise, you are not only behaving unethically, you are behaving delusionally. You are not engaging with the world as it is.

[mariacallous]

Helicopter carrying Iran's President Raisi crashes, search under way

DUBAI, May 19 (Reuters) - A helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister crashed on Sunday as it was crossing mountain terrain in heavy fog, an Iranian official told Reuters, and rescuers were struggling to reach the site of the incident.

The official said the lives of Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were "at risk following the helicopter crash", which happened on the way back from a visit to the border with Azerbaijan in Iran's northwest.

"We are still hopeful but information coming from the crash site is very concerning," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate power in the Islamic Republic, sought to reassure Iranians, saying there would be no disruption to state affairs.

Iranian state media said bad weather was the cause of the crash and was complicating rescue efforts. The chief of staff of Iran's army ordered all the resources of the army and the elite Revolutionary Guard to be put to use in search and rescue operations.

"It is dark and it has started raining, but the search continues. Rescue teams have reached the area ... however, the rain has created mud, making the search difficult," a local reporter told state TV.

State TV had earlier stopped all its regular programming to show prayers being held for Raisi across the country and, in a corner of the screen, live coverage of rescue teams deployed on foot in the mountainous area in heavy fog.

The rescue teams were expected to reach the probable site of the crash later on Sunday evening.

Neighbouring countries expressed concern and offered assistance in any rescue. The White House said U.S. President Joe Biden had been briefed on reports about the crash. The European Union offered emergency satellite mapping technology to help Iran with the search.

HARDLINER SEEN AS POSSIBLE SUCCESSOR TO KHAMENEI

The crash comes at a time of growing dissent within Iran over an array of political, social and economic crises. Iran's clerical rulers face international pressure over Tehran's disputed nuclear programme and its deepening military ties with Russia during the war in Ukraine.

Since Iran's ally Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, provoking Israel's assault on Gaza, conflagrations involving Iran-aligned groups have erupted throughout the Middle East.

Raisi, 63, was elected president in 2021, and since taking office has ordered a tightening of morality laws, overseen a bloody crackdown on anti-government protests and pushed hard in nuclear talks with world powers.

In Iran's dual political system, split between the clerical establishment and the government, it is Raisi's 85-year-old mentor Khamenei, supreme leader since 1989, who has the final say on all major policies.

For years many have seen Raisi as a strong contender to succeed Khamenei, who has endorsed Raisi's main policies.

Raisi's victory in a closely managed election in 2021 brought all branches of power under the control of hardliners, after eight years when the presidency had been held by pragmatist Hassan Rouhani and a nuclear deal negotiated with Washington.

However, Raisi's standing may have been dented by widespread protests against clerical rule and a failure to turn around Iran's economy, hamstrung by Western sanctions.

Raisi had been at the Azerbaijani border on Sunday to inaugurate the Qiz-Qalasi Dam, a joint project. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, who said he had bid a "friendly farewell" to Raisi earlier in the day, offered assistance in the rescue.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

David Smith at The Guardian:

Donald Trump has complained bitterly to Jewish donors that a majority of Jews vote against him in US presidential elections, suggesting that the Democratic party has a “curse on you”. The Republican presidential candidate made the remarks during a speech on Thursday at the Israeli-American Council national summit in Washington, where he used hyperbolic language to warn that victory for his opponent Kamala Harris would result in Israel being wiped off the map. Airing grievances at the end of a disjointed speech, with US and Israel flags behind him, Trump claimed that his support among Jewish voters went from 25% in 2016 to 29% in 2020. “And based on what I did and based on my love – the same love that you have – I should be at 100,” he carped.

Trump asserted that he had been “the best president by far” for Israel but a new poll shows him still below 40% among Jewish voters. “That means you’ve got 60% voted for somebody that hates Israel. And I say it – it’s going to happen – it’s only because of the Democrat hold or curse on you. You can’t let this happen. Forty per cent is not acceptable, because we have an election to win.” Trump has been criticised for associating with extremists who promote antisemitic rhetoric, such as the far-right activist Nick Fuentes and the rapper Ye, formerly known as Kanye West. When the former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke endorsed Trump in 2016, Trump responded that he knew “nothing about David Duke, I know nothing about white supremacists”.

But during his four years in office, Trump approved a series of policy changes long sought by many advocates of Israel, such as moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, officially recognising the Golan Heights as being under Israel’s sovereignty, and terminating Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal. At Thursday’s donor event, entitled “Fighting Anti-Semitism in America”, Trump told the mostly supportive audience: “My promise to Jewish Americans is this: with your vote I will be your defender, your protector, and I will be the best friend Jewish Americans have ever had in the White House. But in all fairness, I already am.” He criticised Harris over the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, and for what he branded antisemitic protests on college campuses and elsewhere. “Kamala Harris has done absolutely nothing. She has not lifted a single finger to protect you or to protect your children.”

But the former president returned again and again to what is evidently a political sore point: his persistent struggle among Jewish voters. He repeated a talking point that Jewish people who vote for Democrats “should have their head examined”. He went on: “I will put it to you very simply and gently. I really haven’t been treated right. But you haven’t been treated right because you’re putting yourself in great danger and the United States hasn’t been treated right.” He claimed that Israel “will cease to exist” within two or three years if he does not win the election. “I have to tell you the truth and maybe you’ll be energised because there’s no way that I should be getting 40% of the vote. I’m the one that’s protecting you. These are the people who are going to destroy you and you have 60% of Jewish people essentially voting for that.”

Rabid antisemite Donald Trump whines about the lack of support from Jews and attacked Democratic Jewish voters at Thursday’s address in front of the Israeli-American Council.

See Also:

HuffPost: Trump Says He’d Blame Jews For Loss, Claims Democrats Have ‘Hold Or Curse’ On Them

Daily Kos: Trump threatens to blame Jews if he loses the election

[loneberry]

Notes on Palestine

The geopolitical situation right now is extremely unstable. In such moments it always feels like incentive structures are such that all parties are pushed toward war and escalation. I saw how this all unfolded with 9/11; it left an indelible mark on my psyche–to observe the world careening, the hysteria, the march toward endless war. The Iran hawks in the US are out calling for war with Iran (US intelligence and even the IDF have said Iran did not help *plan* the Hamas attacks, though the idea that Iran was behind the attacks is being presented as fact). 

Days before the Hamas attacks, I was in an article + podcast rabbit hole focused on Iranian nuclear politics, Saudi-Israeli relations, and the current situation in the “Middle East” (I prefer the term “South West Asia and North Africa”/SWANA but will use “Middle East” for readability). I had also been reading that the US’s attempts to broker a US-Saudi-Israeli deal would piss off the Palestinians. It filled me with immense grief—nobody, not even Muslim Arabs, seem to care about Palestinians anymore. The international community has failed. Now it seems that the world has consented to a protracted genocide of Palestinians. It used to be the case that Arab countries would not considered normalizing relations with Israel without Israel making concessions to the Palestinians. The sad reality is that since the Arab Spring, the resolution of the Palestinian issue has become a low priority for many countries in the Middle East, many of whom have their own feud with Iran and see pivoting toward Israel as a path toward greater security. Of course I’m talking about the Abraham Accords, the so-called “peace deal” brokered by the Trump administration that enabled the normalization of relations between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, yet excluded any input from Palestinians. That event had brought me so much grief. It really felt like any hope for the Palestinian cause was dying. There seems to be little political will from any side to put pressure on Israel.

In moments of crisis like these I try to be sober and pedagogical, but such a task feels nearly impossible when it comes to the “Israeli-Palestinian conflict”. People say the conflict is “complicated” and rooted in hundreds of years of religious hatred. It is really not that complicated and only requires basic knowledge of 20th century history. Prior to WWI, the territory of Palestine (and much of the Arab world) was under the rule of the Ottoman Empire for over 400 years. The Allied Powers (Britain, France, Russia, and others) were at war with the Central Powers (Germany, Austro-Hungary, the Ottomans, etc). The Brits saw Palestine as a crown jewel and coveted Jerusalem in particular. They recruited Arab assistance in the war by whipping up hundreds of years of resentment against the Ottomans and promising the Arabs that they would break up the Ottoman Empire and help the Arabs create their own nations (see theMcMahon-Hussein correspondence). Yet the Brits were also keen on recruiting Jewish support on the side of the Allied Powers. In 1917 the British government made a declaration (the Balfour Declaration) that announced British support for the creation of a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine. At the end of WWI (which, as you likely know, ended in Allied success), the European empires on the winning side sought to expand their empires while Woodrow Wilson believed more in self-determination. The compromise was the “mandate” system, where the Europeans on the winning side took administrative control of territories lost by the Central Powers—France and Britain carved up the Middle East. Enter the British mandate for Palestine. The Arabs had been betrayed by the Allied Europeans (no surprise there). One form of colonial rule was swapped for another. 

Prior to the end of WWI, the Zionist movement was gaining momentum, partly as an answer to the perennial problem of European anti-Semitism and partly because of the 19th/early-20th century discourse around nationalism. The idea of creating a Jewish state in Palestine began in the 19th century, but it was really in the 1890s that modern political Zionism began with the figure of Theodor Herzl. European Jews began to immigrate to Palestine to form settlements. Yet when the mandate was established, the Jewish population was still relatively small—around 9%. While the territory was under British rule, the Brits facilitated a dramatic increase in European Jewish immigration to Palestine. Between 1922 and 1935, the portion of the population that was Jewish grew to 27%. It’s hardly surprising that violence broke out between Arabs and Jews, as well as Arabs and the Brits (see the Arab Revolt of 1936-39). 

The Brits promised a territory to an oppressed people (the Jews) that was never theirs to give away in the first place. The Arabs were quickly being displaced from their home. All of this would come to a head in WWII, when Europe’s vile anti-Semitism was on full display with the Holocaust. How would Europe atone for the atrocities committed against the Jews? There was much momentum around creating a physical state for the Jews in Palestine. This was also a convenient solution for deeply anti-Semitic Europe, as they preferred that the Jews leave rather than be integrated into their societies. In 1947 the UN voted to partition Palestine into a Jewish state and an Arab state, with Jerusalem coming under international administration. 13 voted against the partition (basically all the countries in the Middle East, plus India and several others). 55% of the land would be set aside for the Jews. War broke out soon after the UN resolution. The (WWII) battle-hardened Zionist paramilitaries (backed by European countries) undertook a campaign of ethnic cleansing and captured additional territory. Between 1947-49, 750,000 Palestinians became refugees—around 40% of the entire Palestinian population. 78% of historic Palestine was taken by Zionist forces. This is the event of settler violence and ethnic cleansing that Palestinians refer to as the Nakba (or catastrophe). 

There is so much obfuscation about the roots of the Israel-Palestine conflict. What ultimately happened: Europe decided it wanted to create a nation for Jews. It picked the territory of Palestine for this project (other territories were also considered) because the Brits controlled the territory and because of its religious significance. There were already people who lived on the land that was to be used to create a Jewish state. Now Palestinians are stateless and live under a brutal military occupation (the West Bank) and even more punishing blockade (Gaza)—or as refugees. Palestinians were ultimately made to suffer for the sins of European anti-Semitism. 

*

There is a lot more I can say here, about the history of the Cold War and how it relates to the US’s alliance with Israel, about internecine conflicts in Palestinian politics (the split between Hamas and the PLO/Palestinian Authority), about the current geopolitical situation, about contemporary domestic politics in Israel (which currently has the most right-wing govt in Israel’s history) and the Hamas attacks themselves. I see friends gleefully posting about the murder of Israeli civilians. I just can’t get on board with that. Neither can I get on board with Israel bombing hospitals and shelters in Gaza, or calling Palestinians “animals.” All life is sacred, all life is grievable. (People are right to point out that most of the world does not grieve the loss of Palestinian life.)

Events do have a context. Gaza is one of the most unlivable places on the planet. Around 67% of Gaza's population are refugees displaced during the Nakba. It has been under a brutal blockade for 16 years. It’s the 3rd most densely populated place on the planet—over 2.1 million people are crammed into a space half the size of London. The residents have been deprived of electricity, clean drinking water, medical supplies, and food. Nearly half of residents are unemployed and civilians have died by thousands under Israeli bombings (6,407 Palestinians have been killed since 2008). It is referred to as an “open air prison” because the residents are literally hemmed in by a high-tech fence. Given these dire conditions, an eruption of violence did seem almost inevitable. 

What I fear: a ground invasion of Gaza. A broader conflagration involving Lebanon and Iran, and potentially the rest of the world. The US going to war with Iran. If the world genuinely wishes to see the end of the “cycle of violence,” Palestinians must be free. Any attempt to bring about “regional security” while ignoring the Palestinian situation is destined to fail.

[matan4il]

replying to your anon ask about preemptive strikes: i wouldn't really claim to be an expert but Iran is an interest of mine (aside: ask me what my username means). at this point, the question isn't 'should' but 'could' : "could Israel and/or western powers preemptively strike Iran in such a way as to neutralize any severe retaliatory actions?" and the answer, unfortunately, is probably not. Iran is well fortified with pretty capable air defense systems as well as underground bases, some of which US airstrikes may not be able to penetrate. An Iranian response to an attack would probably include ballistic and cruise missiles as well as suicide drones, all of which Iran has that can reach Israel as well as US installations in the Persian Gulf. There would also be the problem of militia groups in the region like Ansarallah (the Huthis) and other groups in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to whom Iran has provided weapons that they are already using to carry out attacks. These groups would ramp up harassment on shipping lanes and military bases in the region. So while it is tempting to say let's just bomb Iran back to the stone age, it probably isn't possible without kicking off widespread open war in the middle east, which would defeat the original purpose of maintaining regional stability. The best course would be to continue excluding Iran from the global economy, and especially preventing purchase of foreign-origin components that they use to build their weapons systems. If you have seen or followed any news from Ukraine about the Iranian drones being used by Russia, you will hear about how many parts they contain that are not made in Iran. Preventing import of these parts is one of the least escalatory ways to deal with the problem.

Hi!

Of course I've been following the news about the Iranian drones being used by Russia against Ukraine. It's essential to know about it, in order to understand the axes we're seeing forming in front of our eyes in global politics. It's also important, in order to understand the kind of experience the Islamist Iranian regime is getting, they're basically getting to carry out experiments at the expense of Ukraine.

That said, you misunderstand me when I talked about the solution possibly being a combination of political (which includes financial) means and military ones. I think up until a certain point, financial sanctions could have been successful at forcing the Iranian regime to stop its nuclear and rocket programs. But those sanctions were lifted once too many times, and a part of what the new axis that Iran is now a part of (an axis that could be formed thanks to the lifting of those economic sanctions), offers it an alternate financial route, one which the west can't block.

But when I'm talking a military option, I'm not talking about it on its own, I do think a combination is a strong possibility, and I also don't think a military solution is necessarily a full scale invasion or aerial bombardment. If you've been following Iran, I'm sure you know there are other kinds of military operations that can be taken. On their own, they won't be a solution either, but in combination...

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Matt Davies :: Strange love

* * * *

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

June 20, 2024

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

JUN 21, 2024

Yesterday, in North Korea, Russian president Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a security partnership between their countries that said they would “provide mutual assistance in case of aggression.” The two authoritarian leaders essentially resurrected a 1961 agreement between North Korea and the Soviet Union. According to the North Korean News Agency, the agreement also calls for the two countries to work together toward a “just and multipolar new world order.”

The United States and other western allies have been concerned for two years about the strengthening ties between the two countries. Putin needs weapons for the war in Ukraine, and in exchange, he might provide not only the economic support Kim Jong Un needs—North Korea is one of the poorest countries in Asia—but also transfer the technology North Korea needs to develop nuclear weapons. 

In the New York Times today, David Sanger pointed out that Putin and China’s leader Xi Jinping have partnered against the West in the past decade but have always agreed that North Korea must not be able to develop a nuclear weapon. Now, it appears, Putin is desperate enough for munitions that he is willing to provide the technologies North Korea needs to obtain one, along with missiles to deliver it. 

Meanwhile, Joby Warrick reported yesterday in the Washington Post that Iran has launched big expansions of two key nuclear enrichment plants, and leaders of the country’s nuclear program have begun to say they could build a nuclear weapon quickly if asked to do so. On X, security analyst Jon Wolfsthal recalled the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that successfully limited Iran’s nuclear program and that Trump abandoned with vows to produce something better. Wolfsthal noted that diplomacy worked when “wars and ‘promises’ of a better deal could not.”   

Still, the meeting between Putin and Kim Jong Un is a sign of weakness, not strength. As The Telegraph pointed out, just ten years ago, Putin was welcomed to the G8 (now the G7) by the leaders of the richest countries in the world. “Now he has to go cap in hand to the pariah state of North Korea,” it pointed out. National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby added that “Russia is absolutely isolated on the world stage. They’ve been forced to rely, again, on countries like North Korea and Iran. Meanwhile…, Ukraine just organized a successful peace summit in Switzerland that had more than 100 countries and organizations sign up to support President Zelenskyy’s vision for a just peace.” 

In that same press conference, Kirby noted that the U.S. is delaying planned deliveries of foreign military sales to other countries, particularly of air defense missiles, sending the weapons to Ukraine instead. Also today, the U.S. emphasized that Ukraine can use American-supplied weapons to hit Russian forces in Russia. This is at least partly in response to recent reports that Russia is pulverizing Ukrainian front-line cities to force inhabitants to abandon them. Ukraine can slow the barrage by hitting the Russian airstrips from which the planes are coming.

China, which declared a “no limits” partnership with Russia in February 2022 just before Russia invaded Ukraine, kept distant from the new agreement between Russia and North Korea. Tong Zhao of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told Laurie Chen and Josh Smith of Reuters: "China is…careful not to create the perception of a de facto alliance among Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang, as this will not be helpful for China to maintain practical cooperation with key Western countries.”

Greg Torode, Gerry Doyle, and Laurie Chen published an exclusive story in Reuters tonight, reporting that in March, for the first time in five years, delegates from the U.S. and China resumed semi-official talks about nuclear arms, although official talks have stalled.

The office of president of the Republic of Korea (ROK), Yoon Suk Yeol, condemned the agreement. “It’s absurd that two parties with a history of launching wars of invasion—the Korean War and the war in Ukraine—are now vowing mutual military cooperation on the premise of a preemptive attack by the international community that will never happen,” it said. An ROK national security official added that the government, which has provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine, will now consider supplying weapons. This is no small threat: ROK is one of the world’s top ten arms exporters.  

In the U.S., John Kirby told reporters that while cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a concern, the U.S. has been strengthening and bolstering alliances and partnerships throughout the Indo-Pacific region since President Joe Biden took office. It brokered the historic trilateral agreement between the Republic of Korea, Japan, and the United States; launched AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the U.S.; and expanded cooperation with the Philippines. 

On Tuesday, at a joint press conference with U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken in Washington, D.C., NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg explained the cooperation between Russia and North Korea like this. “Russia’s war in Ukraine is…propped up by China, North Korea, and Iran,” he said. “They want to see the United States fail. They want to see NATO fail. If they succeed in Ukraine, it will make us more vulnerable and the world more dangerous. 

To that, The Bulwark today added journalist Anne Applebaum’s comments about the determination of those countries to disrupt liberal democracies. Dictators, she said, “are betting that Trump will be the person who destroys the United States, whether he makes it ungovernable, whether he assaults the institutions so that they no longer function, whether he creates so much division and chaos that the U.S. can’t have a foreign policy anymore. That’s what they want, and that’s what they’re hoping he will do.”

Trump himself is a more and more problematic candidate. This week, author Ramin Setoodeh, who has a new book coming out soon about Trump’s transformation from failed businessman to reality TV star on the way to the presidency, has told reporters that Trump has “severe memory issues” adding that “he couldn’t remember things, he couldn’t even remember me.”

Trump is supposed to participate in a debate with President Biden on June 27, and while Biden is preparing as candidates traditionally do, with policy reviews and practice, Trump’s team has been downplaying Trump’s need for preparation, saying that his rallies and interviews with friendly media are enough. 

With new polls showing Biden overtaking the lead in the presidential contest, right-wing media has been pushing so-called cheap fakes: videos that don’t use AI but misrepresent what happened by deceptively cutting the film or the shot. 

Social media has been flooded with images of Biden appearing to bend over for no apparent reason at a D-Day commemoration; the clip cuts off both the chair behind him and that everyone else was sitting down, too. Another, from the recent G7 summit, appears to show the president wandering away from a group of leaders during a skydiving demonstration; in fact, he was walking toward and speaking to a parachute jumper who had just landed but was off camera. A third appears to show Biden unable to say the name of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas; in fact, he was teasing Mayorkas, and the film cuts off just before Biden says his name.  

On Monday, June 17, Judd Legum of Popular information produced a deep report on how the right-wing Sinclair Broadcast Group has been flooding its local media websites with these and other stories suggesting that President Biden is “mentally unfit for office.” Legum noted that these stories appeared simultaneously on at least 86 local news websites Sinclair owns.

Finally, today, in the New York Times, Charlie Savage and Alan Feuer reported that two of Judge Aileen Cannon’s more experienced colleagues on Florida’s federal bench—including the chief judge, a George W. Bush appointee—urged her to hand off the case of Trump’s retention of classified documents to someone else when it was assigned to her. They noted that she was inexperienced, having been appointed by Trump only very late in his term, and that taking the case would look bad since she had previously been rebuked by a conservative appeals court after helping Trump in the criminal investigation that led to the indictment. 

She refused to pass the assignment to someone else.  

Trump’s lawyers’ approach to the case has been to try to delay it until after the election. Judge Cannon’s decisions appear to have made that strategy succeed.

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[girlactionfigure]

🟠WEDNESDAY morning - ISRAEL REALTIME - Connecting to Israel in Realtime

▪️MILITARY & POLICE DRILLS - LOD, BEIT SHEMESH, north HAIFA BAY.. there will be drills today around Lod, and around Beit Shemesh.  “a lively movement of vehicles of the security forces will be felt, there is no fear of a security incident.”  In Haifa, a military exercise will take place in the northern coastal sector in the maritime space and Haifa Bay.

▪️SIREN TEST - YESOD HA’MAALA.. siren test, 11:05 AM.

▪️THE COST - MILITARY REHAB.. 10,056 soldiers since the beginning of the war have needed rehab. 35% for PTSD, 37% for physical trauma.  68% of the injured have been reservists.  The mental support line "Nefesh One" dial *8944 is available throughout the year 24/7.

▪️CAR BOMB!  BACKFIRES!  A car bomb that was supposed to carry out an attack against Jews, exploded with the two terrorists inside, in the Halhol area of ​​the Hebron sector.

▪️A PRIVATE PLANE.. travelled from Beirut to Israel.  Speculation over who, possibly US negotiator Amos Hochstein.

▪️MILITARY RUMORS.. The Northern Command is now pushing for a more aggressive and violent approach against Hezbollah (per supposed leaks - which could also be a warning influence campaign).

▪️ISRAEL BUYS.. The US approved an arms deal worth about 20 billion dollars to Israel.

.. Air-to-air missiles worth $102.5 million.

.. Tank shells worth $774 million.

.. Tactical vehicles worth $583 million.

.. F-15s worth $18.8 billion.

▪️THE US HAS DEPLOYED.. over 40,000 soldiers with associated equipment to the Middle East since the Iran threat.  An Arab analyst: The American military deployment is offensive and not defensive.

🔹ANOTHER NOTAM.. “gun firing warning” from Iran for airlines to avoid, Western Iran (rocket base area), below 18,000 ft.  13:00-16:00 Israel time, Tue-Wed-Thu.

🔹US President Biden: Expects that Iran will give up an attack against Israel if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, although the Iranian Foreign Minister has explicitly said otherwise.

🔹Al-Arabi Al-Jadid: Iran rejected American and European proposals to avoid a reaction against Israel, in exchange for resuming talks on the nuclear issue.  And warns: American intervention in aid to Israel in response - total war.

🔹Since October, Hezbollah has launched more than 7,500 missiles and 200 drones at Israel, killing 43 Israelis including 19 soldiers, wounded 271, and caused 790 fires, of which about 158,000 dunams (40,000 acres) were burned.

🔸DEAL NEWS.. Daily reports are back and forth on Hamas attendance, todays report: The representative of Hamas in Lebanon, Ahmed Abdel Hadi, tells the Russian Sputnik agency that Hamas will NOT send a delegation to the negotiations that will take place on Thursday.

♦️COUNTER-TERROR - TUBAS.. forces are working this morning to thwart terrorism in Tubas, the forces surround a building as part of the "pressure cooker" procedure and announce to those wanted to turn themselves in or they will be eliminated. Exchanges of fire and the throwing of explosive charges towards the forces, at various points in the city, and around the building.  IDF drone strike!

♦️IDF attacked terrorist targets in the humanitarian area by Khan Yunis from which rockets were fired at Tel Aviv yesterday.

♦️Lebanese sources: overnight IDF fires white phosphorus shells (wide area fire starting) in the area of Hunin in southern Lebanon.

⭕US base in northeastern Syria attack by 4 rockets from Iraqi Shia Militias.  The Pentagon admitted that 8 American soldiers were injured last week in a suicide drone attack on an American base in Syria.

⭕Explosion by Golani Intersection.

[libertariantaoist]

News Roundup 11/6/2023 | The Libertarian Institute

Here is your daily roundup of today's news:

News Roundup 11/6/2023

by Kyle Anzalone

Ukraine 

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Gen. Valery Zaluzhny acknowledged in comments to The Economist that the war in Ukraine is a stalemate and that there will “most likely” be no Ukrainian breakthrough. AWC

A top Ukrainian official said Kiev is seeking to become one of the largest arms manufacturers in the world. The statement comes as the Biden administration has begun pushing Ukraine to engage in talks with Russia on ending the war. Ukraine developing a large weapons industry and selling those arms to the enemies of Russia will likely interfere with any deals to end the conflict. The Institute

The US rolled out its 50th weapons package for Ukraine. The arms shipment will include air defenses, artillery rounds, and anti-armor weapons. The Pentagon will purchase $300 million in arms on behalf of Kyiv, depleting all the funds in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). AWC

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday signed a bill into law that formally withdrew Russia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). AWC

Israel

During a trip to Israel, America’s top diplomat pushed Tel Aviv to agree to limited “humanitarian pauses” to allow aid into Gaza and facilitate negotiations for Hamas to release prisoners. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said there would not be a temporary pause in the fighting. AWC

Despite the massive bombing campaign and ground invasion in Gaza, a senior Pentagon official believes Israel has not come close to taking out Hamas’s leadership, The New York Times reported Saturday. AWC

The Pentagon has acknowledged that the US is flying drones over Gaza to help Israel locate hostages, demonstrating deep US involvement in the war. AWC

Israel’s Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu on Sunday said that dropping a nuclear bomb on the Gaza Strip was an option for Israel and claimed there are no innocent civilians in the enclave. AWC

The House on Thursday passed a bill to provide Israel with $14.3 billion in military aid, a strong show of support for the Israeli onslaught on Gaza, which has killed over 9,000 people so far. AWC

Twenty-seven days into Israel’s brutal bombing campaign, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) became the first member of the US Senate to call for a ceasefire in Gaza. AWC

Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL), a former member of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), dismissed the idea there are “innocent Palestinian civilians” in a debate on the House floor. AWC

Middle East

The House on Wednesday passed a resolution that suggested the US would use force against Iran in the future in the name of preventing the country from acquiring nuclear weapons. AWC

Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an unannounced visit to Iraq on Sunday amid a spate of attacks on US troops in the region over US support for Israel’s onslaught on Gaza. AWC

Read More

[beardedmrbean]

Drones loaded with bombs targeted a military factory at the heart of the central Iranian city of Isfahan, authorities said Sunday, causing a large explosion and minor damage to the facility.

The incident served as the latest flashpoint for rising tensions over the country's nuclear program and its supply of drones to Russia — the news drew a celebratory reaction from Kyiv that earned its own rebuke from Tehran on Monday.

There was no immediate information on who might have carried out the attack, but focus quickly turned to Israel, which has been engaged in a shadow war with the Islamic Republic and is suspected of being behind a number of similar attacks in recent years.

'Defensive traps'

The Iranian defense ministry confirmed one of its workshop complexes had come under attack Saturday from a number of Micro Aerial Vehicles (MAVs), but said the complex’s air defenses had successfully repelled the attack.

A loud blast was heard at the military plant in Isfahan, but a security official said there were no casualties, Iranian state broadcaster IRIB said on its website Sunday.

“The explosion took place in one of the munitions manufacturing centers of the Defence Ministry and according to an announcement by the political and security deputy head of Isfahan Governorate,” IRIB reported, without giving further details.

Three quadcopters equipped with bombs were used in the attack, Iran’s defense ministry said in a statement shared with IRIB.  

“One of the MAVs was downed by the complex’s air defense fire, while the other two were caught in its defensive traps and exploded,” the statement said.

The ministry noted that the unsuccessful attack did not cause any loss of life and only led to minor damage to the roof of a workshop. The complex, it added, continues its ordinary operations following the attack. 

Eyewitness video that has been verified by NBC News shows a small explosion and plumes of gray smoke rising as cars drive past a home furnishings store geolocated as off the Imam Khomeini Expressway in Isfahan.

At a news conference on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian described the attack as “cowardly,” and assured the public that such attacks will have no effect on the country’s overall march toward progress, according to the Tasnim News Agency.

Israel is widely believed to be behind a growing list of incidents like the drone attack that have hit Iranian military and nuclear targets in recent years. Benjamin Netanyahu, who recently returned as Israel’s prime minister, has long viewed Iran as a grave threat.

A spokesperson for both the Israeli Defense Forces and the C.I.A declined to comment.

Talks to revive Tehran's tattered nuclear deal with world powers have collapsed amid the regime's deadly crackdown on anti-government protesters, raising fears about the development of the country's nuclear program.

The attack comes as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarks on a three-day visit to the Middle East already fraught with concerns over the potential for escalation after spiraling violence in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem. Washington and Israel also held a massive joint military exercise last week.

In Ukraine — where Russia has been using Iranian-supplied drones to attack civilian targets across cities far from the front lines — news of the incident prompted an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to draw a link between the two.

“War logic is inexorable & murderous. It bills the authors & accomplices strictly,” Zelenskyy adviser Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted on Sunday. “Explosive night in Iran — drone & missile production, oil refineries. [Ukraine] did warn you.”

Reacting to Podolyak’s comments, Iran on Monday summoned Ukraine’s charge d’affaires in Tehran, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported. 

Russia’s foreign ministry on Monday condemned Sunday’s drone strike against its burgeoning ally and warned against “unpredictable consequences” that could escalate an already precarious situation.

“Such destructive actions could have unpredictable consequences for peace and stability in the Middle East,” foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said.

Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, acknowledged last November that his country had supplied Russia with drones, insisting the transfer came before Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

[szepkerekkocka]

How it started:

How it's going:

The Democrats lose at least one house of the US Congress in the November mid-term elections. Democrats lost only one house, and seeing the recent shitshow around Kevin McCarthy, I'd say this one is a draw.

The US opens talks with Russia on the European security order, but there is no large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Epic fail just as many other analysts did right until 2022.02.24

The developed world learns to live with covid-19. This also underlines China's status as developing.

Emmanuel Macron wins the French presidential election and uses his new mandate to ‘relaunch’ Europe. Macron won, I'm not enough into French politics to judge the second part.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban loses the Hungarian election, but claims he won. Epic fail. Hungary is now officially a stable electoral autocracy. Perhaps it already was in 2018.

Nuclear talks with Iran founder, while the country’s nuclear programme progresses. AFAIK, this described well what happened in 2022.

A faction of the Afghan Taliban overthrows the government. AFAIK none of these predictions came true.

China’s carbon emissions continue to grow rapidly. I could not find data for 2022 with basic websearch (I'm no expert of the area). A Reuters article from November states that China's GHG emissions are expected to fall by 0.9% in 2022, mainly because the zero-COVID policy - then in later years, the growth trends will resume. The zero-COVID policy ended in late 2022. I'd say this prediction did not come true - although not an epic fail like some above.

Protests against high energy prices and the European Green Deal break out across the EU. Did not find any sources on protests nor about how the Fit for 55 package was watered down or not. I'll consider this a miss.

The EU anti-coercion instrument comes into being, but Chinese economic coercion continues. AFAIK the anti-coercion instrument is still in proposal phase. I'll consider this a miss.

Bonus: Private space flight suffers its first fatal accident. No fatal accidents in 2022.

Summary: 3.5/11

[andrewtheprophet]

Obama nuclear deal talks at 'dead end': Daniel 8

Obama nuclear deal talks at ‘dead end’: Daniel 8

Iran nuclear deal talks at ‘dead end’ November 29, 2022 at 4:04 pm | Published in: Asia & Americas, Iran, Middle East, News, US Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Nasser Kanaani [@IRIMFA_EN/Twitter]November 29, 2022 at 4:04 pm A spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Kanaani, said the negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program have reached a “dead end”, adding that…