#I am not an economics
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Why do you think tumblr will die in only a few years?
Answer with jargon: a strong correlation between recent economic shifts and chaotic choices by major tech companies is most easily explained if the 'traditional' social media platforms of 2005-2020 are mostly a zero-interest rate phenomenon.
Longer answer, with less jargon: Even though Musk's takeover is making all the headlines recently, the last year has in fact seen major shakeups at many social media platforms, so Twitter is actually part of a trend. Almost inevitably, these are cases of social media companies trying to find a way to squeeze more money out of their userbase (Reddit), cut costs dramatically (Twitter), or both. This marks a sudden departure from a much more relaxed attitude towards revenue in the Pictures Of Cats industry, where the focus was historically more on expanding the userbase to a global scale and then counting on world domination to sort of <????> and then the company would become profitable eventually.
We joke, correctly, that Tumblr has never been profitable. But the entire structure of ad-supported content curation between human users is deeply suspect as a business model; IIRC Twitter was never profitable either, and Facebook has been juicing its numbers in very shenanigany ways. Discord was actually making money on net last I checked, at least a bit, so they're not all completely in the hole. But even if you take the accounting figures at face value, none of these companies has anything like the amount of money that their cultural prominence would suggest. Instead, they're heavily fueled by investment dollars, money given by super-rich people and institutions in the expectation that fueling the growth of the company now will pay off with interest later.
So what changed?
I'm not an expert here, but I'll do my best to muddle through. The American Federal Reserve has one mandate that dominates all others (sometimes called the 'dual mandate'), and one primary tool that it uses to enforce that mandate. The goal is to maintain low (but nonzero) rates of inflation and unemployment, which in their models are deeply interlinked phenomena. The tool is 'rate hikes', or more specifically, tweaking the mandatory rate of interest that banks charge one another when making loans.
As a particular consequence of this, hiking the rate also means that bonds start paying out much better. When the rate hike goes through, that affects people who let the government borrow their personal cash- that is, people who buy bonds- as well as institutions like banks that lend to one another. A rate hike means that you, personally, can make a little extra money by letting the government borrow it for a while. The federal government of the US is a rock-solid low-risk choice for this kind of moneymaking scheme, so the federal interest rate sort of defines the 'number to beat'; to attract investors, a company has to give those investors money at a better percentage than whatever the feds are offering. Particularly since a company is a lot more likely to go out of business than the state!
To wrap this back around to the Pictures Of Cats industry: the higher the rate hike, the better your company needs to be doing (or the less risky it needs to be as an option) to attract big investment dollars. Very high rates make it very hard to convince people to invest in business activity rather than the government itself, and very low rates put moonshots and big dreams on the table, investment-wise, in a way that wouldn't otherwise be possible. Social media companies were one of these big dreams.
In the great financial crisis of 2008, the Fed took the dramatic step of reducing their rate to zero, trying to juice the economy back to life. And ever since then, they've kept it there. This has produced an unprecedented amount of funding for very crazy stuff; it's part of what has allowed so many weird new tech companies (Uber, streaming services, etc.) to get so much money, so quickly, and use that to grow to massive size without a clear model of how they're ever going to make money. This state of affairs kept going for quite a while, with no clear stopping point; that zero-interest environment has been one of the shadowy forces in the background that shaped fundamental contours and limits in how our Very Online World has grown and developed. Until COVID.
Or rather, the bounce back from COVID: we suddenly saw a massive spike in inflation and an incredibly strong labor market, as employees quit in record numbers, negotiated higher salaries, and found better work, and at the same time supply chain issues and other economy stuff caused prices to climb dramatically. Recall the Fed's 'dual mandate', to control the employment rate and inflation. This was, basically, kicking them right in the jooblies. They responded in kind, finally finally raising their rates for the first time in 15 years. For some of the people reading this, it'll be the first significant shift in their entire adult lives.
The goal, as I understand it, is to fight inflation by reducing the amount of outside investment into private companies, forcing them to hire fewer people and pay smaller salaries, ultimately drawing money out of the working economy and driving prices back down by lowering demand for everything. You get paid less, so you eat out less, and buy at cheaper restaurants when you do, so restaurants have to compete harder by lowering their prices; seems pretty dodgy to me as a theory, but it's the theory. And the first part will almost certainly work- companies are going to see less investment.
For social media companies that are still paying most of their salaries with investor dollars instead of revenues, this is especially catastrophic. Without outside investment, they're just a massive pile of expenses waiting to happen, huge yearly costs in developer salaries and server fees. This is why, all of a sudden, every social media company is suddenly making bonkers decisions. They're noticing that nobody wants to give them any more money! So they're trying to figure out how to live a lot more cheaply, to actually somehow for reals turn their giant userbases in to some kind of actual revenue stream, or both.
Tumblr is kind of the ur-example of this kind of thing, supporting a very large userbase with no coherent plan whatsoever to start paying its staff with our dollars instead of investors' dollars. When interest rates were low and Scrooge McDuck had nowhere else to hide his pile of gold coins, a crazy kid with a dream was the best alternative available to him. But now, unless something changes, he's going to notice he can just buy bonds instead, and that crazy kid can go take a hike.
That's why I think Tumblr is living on borrowed time, though I don't know how much. Like all cartoons, the economy doesn't really fall off a cliff until somebody looks down and notices they've been standing on thin air this whole time. But they always fall eventually; that's the gag.
#I am not an economics#so if somebody wants to grade my accuracy here#that would be welcome#this is the situation as I understand it but my models are hazy
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Robert House watching The Courier rip all the copper wiring out the walls of the Lucky 38
#omw to sell it as scrap at Mick and Ralph’s#or for the gun runners maybe#oc: wesson-smith kelly#he’s awful he’s the worst he’s my little pookie bear#no time to listen to your plans or views on social economics#need money to loose at the slot machines#you bet the wrong horse in this race#no main quest side tasks only#I am in your walls stealing your loft insulation#do not talk to me#crime time 😎#all bundled up in the backseat of The Highwayman#the custom license place says $CAM1IN#fallout new vegas#fallout#courier six#courier 6#Robert house#fallout memes#fallout nv memes#fallout nv#so many tags#babygirl why are we talking about philosophy#no helgian dialects here I’m about to send ghoulies to the moon#exploding house with my mind#my courier is the worst I love him I hate him I would not let him in my house#fallout new vegas memes
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Sublime Equine.
[First] Prev <–-> Next
#poorly drawn mdzs#mdzs#wei wuxian#little apple#Did I *need* to dedicate a whole comic to little apple when I'm trying to economize my scenes?#Well! I did start this whole blog with the dreams of one day being able to draw better equines. So Yes. I did need this.#The true benchmark of my art progress is actually the quality of how I draw Little Apple.#(no seriously go look back at my little apple tag. Then come back here).#Hey welcome back! I know right! What was I even doing at the start? That was *not* a donkey!!!#That aside - I really am thrilled that I can draw her more. Even if she's only *really* in two more comics for season 2.#I wish I had more thoughts here. I'm so distracted by the donkey rotating in my brain. I missed her so monch.#Oh! Yeah I really like the parallels here between WWX and Little apple.#Specifically the sense of how we get a nod to how he's changed.#Little apple and WWX have both grown a little less lean and hungry (one literally the other metaphorically)#This whole episode is basically about WWX's desire for something peaceful and domestic in his life.#and here is little apple - his first companion from the start of his new life - changed to something softer.#Very much a 'look how far we have come moment' that is rather subtle but enjoyable.
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How long was it between when Iroh convinced Zuko to take up the Fire Throne, and Sozin's comet? A day? Less??
AU where Iroh convinces Zuko to be the next Fire Lord MUCH earlier in the series. Zuko, who hasn't been in formal education since was 13yo, understandably panics. He barely remembers his lessons on How To Be the Fire Lord, and they were all focused on how to rule during wartime. Not peace. What does an international peace treaty even LOOK like and how does one go about making it???? How does trade work when you're NOT trying to eradicate every other nation????
Book 3 Zuko spends all of his time teaching Aang firebending, interrogating the other members about their culture's traditions and politics, going on Blue Spirit journeys to raid any passing libraries, and reading everything he can get his hands on. He barely eats. He doesn't sleep. He's info dumping about the DRIEST political texts. The gaang are THIS close to holding an intervention or having Toph sit on him until he sleeps.
#the gaang: morning zuko how did you sleep?#zuko (600 pages into an ancient text on the economic significance of grain farmers in the rural earth kingdom): a... agriculture....#avatar#atla#atla headcanons#i am obsessed with feral nerd zuko#the kid finished formal education at 13!!! against his will!!!#i know iroh was probably teaching him as much as he could but ngl zuko was NOT gonna sit and listen for long when he had an avatar to find#he's panicking and info dumps about ancient international law the second someone looks at him#hakoda is worried about zuko being nervous around him since he's a Father Figure#but zuko skips straight past the trauma and zeroes in on hakoda being an actual political leader!!! who knows stuff!!!#teach him sifu hakoda!!!#my posts
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Hey so what better way to start up my tumblr page than to post what is esentially a communism fanart? Sort of? Communism-inspired??? But also my favourite artwork I have done to this day.
#disco elysium#disco elysium fanart#mazovianism#am i gonna tag this as#communism#yes i am#ultramaterialism#fanart#mazovian socio-economics#star-and-antlers#if you don't know also just a#deer#digital art#game fanart#videogame fanart#favourite artwork#new user#antlers#tamquirafanart
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My Coronabeth Dominant Twin manifesto is simple and it's as follows: there's no way the twins could have planned for Canaan House.
John requesting new Lyctors wasn't something anyone in the Houses would've expected to happen in their lifetimes with any meaningful probability. This means that when the Tridentarii started the double necromancer ruse, they expected to carry on for life. It was an arrangement that benefited Corona vastly more than Ianthe.
What Ianthe got out of it, as far as we know: Corona would rule Ida, which she isn't keen on (as per NtN). But it also meant that Ianthe signed up for a life in her sister's shadow, with everyone regarding Corona as the perfect heir and Ianthe as the lame spare. Worse, for Ianthe, everyone believed Corona was the better flesh magician (as per As Yet Unsent). There's a lot more in for Corona in this arrangement and a lifetime of mild humiliation for Ianthe. As we see during the reveal in GtN, she was just dying to tell anyone that SHE is the necromantic genius of the pair, actually.
On their relationship with Babs: in GtN, Gideon notices that Babs obeys Ianthe's orders over Corona's. She also notices that Corona looks shocked about this — to me, this means that it's NOT something Coronabeth is used to. Pre-Canaan House, they are equals in their ruse. At Canaan House, it becomes obvious that if Ianthe ascends she'll leave Corona in the dust, and their relationship has to change. I don't think the way they act around each other from Canaan House onwards is at all representative of their relationship back on the Third, and I don't think Babs deferring to Ianthe over Corona is something that has happened often before, if at all.
There's the bit where Corona routinely threatened suicide to get her way since they were teenagers. In NtN she's doing it to save Camilla's life, but she reminisces fondly about it like it was something she did often to get her way, like it was a fun mind game they played with each other.
You've also got Ianthe calling Corona a bimbo and insulting her and whatever, and me arguing that Corona pulled the few strings doesn't make Ianthe good but as things stand I'm much more inclined to believe that, before Ianthe attained Lyctorhood, Corona was the one in charge — and I’m also firmly convinced that she’s using BoE for her own ends, and we’ll see her Fuck Shit Up in AtN.
#re: Corona threatening to kill herself#in NtN they ARE in a life-or-death situation but I simply refuse to believe that the same circumstances ever applied before#no way Ianthe aged 15 was going around murdering people and virtuous Corona tried to stop it. OCCAM'S RAZOR GIRL#I also think that she's killed many many people in between GtN and NtN to attain her BoE rank (which is positive) (I think she's hot)#but Ms. 'I am Interested In Imperial Economic Policy' isn't doing it for freedom fighting reasons <3#tlt thought#tridentarii#to be clear: I choose to believe in Worsetwin Coronabeth bc it's so much sexier. to me#ianthe#coronabeth#tlt
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None of the modern terts we have work well with any of the genes we've been getting since like Flaunt and Flair. They either make the dragon look too busy (thylacine, koi, crackle, flecks, polkadot, wish), hide key parts of the primary genes (underbelly, points, scales, etc), barely make a difference (sparkle, spines) or just have always been extremely situational (looking at you, Peacock and Soap). We DESPERATELY need tertiary genes that can balance out the business of the new genes while adding to the appearence of the dragon in a significant way.
#i don't want to have to use Stained alongside fucking Harlequin and Jester#and I think like#needing your dragon to have their tert hidden not because it doesn't match#but because it looks worse with a visible tert than with Basic#means there's a problem with the gene designs.#what I mean is I want to spend my dragon money but I'm running out of reasons to!#like the old genes can still be used with great effectiveness. Cherub is still elegant and subtle enough to work with Scales#but cinder. while even more economic than cherub.#has all the details in the exact spots that it gets disrupted if I use anything except runes and the terts of shame (sparkle or spines)#points and scales cover the face. Okapi covers the neck and tail. Thylacine thylacines all over it. Belly genes cover the underside markings#it's CLEARLY made to be used alongside line-breaking aether terts. but I like it in moderns. what the hell am i supposed to use with it.
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Domestic science/home economics are such important fields to be taught in school. Everyone should know food safety, how to cook basic meals, do basic mending to clothing, budget a household, do laundry + understand clothing tags, clean a house etc. It is such an important foundation for life and something many kids never get and that’s not their fault. So many young adults move out on their own and have no clue how to take care of themselves because they were never taught how. I honestly believe it needs to be a core class for all students and especially male students.
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If you answer, please reblog with your age and what country/state (if from the United States) you are from.
#I am actually super curious about this#personally I didn't have either but I really wish my school offered it#I'm 22 and from ny#home economics#home ec#woodworking#polls
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whiskey & writing this thesis bc the introduction chapter is taking more linguistical creativity than what I have with just caffeine (idk what to write in this without it sounding like a 3rd grader’s essay yikes)
#also I ran out of whiskey :( been saving this last glass for ages bc whiskey expensive#but the cravings got the best of me (if i was being economical I would’ve had the cheap vodka I have in my fridge but it’s so bad I cant)#and I just mmmight be financially irresponsible and go buy a new one tonight#tho no clue which one#my budget is not high#but I am not fucking buying jameson#bookblr#studyblr#booklr#aesthetic#books#study#reading#read#book#tw alcohol#alcohol tw#dark academia#february 2024#2024
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Her favourite colour is yello w
#how do I explain the existence of Cyn to my friend she doesn't understand what she's for no matter how many times I say it please help#if you (the friend) are reading this. YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE. I AM CALLING YOU OUT ON PUBLIC TELEVISION!!! >:[#I'm gonna start rewatching season 9 of FOP tomorrow! WOWIE! Can't wait to finish the show and then move on to... *breathes heavily*#... fairly odder... And after that I get to rewatch a new wish! AGAIN! :D Yaaayyy!!!#sowwy if she looks kinda stupid I have to pay attention in class ya know economics wow I sure do love taxes (liar...)#cyn md#cyn#absolute solver#tagging her is a lil problematic to me... I'll just leave it to anyone who reblogs!!! m'kay!!!#murder drones#murder drones fanart#sometimes I wonder if I should give her a nose but I really like the smooth “snout” it's funny and *sigh* I just... don't know...#funfact when episode 7 released I drew her with the worst hair imaginable but what if some weird solver magic makes it kept in well#condition that would be funny make the rest lowkey rot and her hair is just silky soft#okie that's enough byeeeeeee
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A mother's word for word transcription of the imaginary phone call her four-year-old made to Santa Claus in 1911.
(source: The Harbor Beach Times, December 22, 1911.)
Through some outrageous case of serendipity I found a recording of another phone call this same child made 60 years later. Though I have to say his choice of conversational partner is a definite downgrade from the first call.
#I've started using 'our bees are all dead' as my standard filler during lulls in conversation#and no I am not kidding#that is actually 64 year old George Arthur Lincoln in the recording#I'm writing up a bio of him that will hopefully be up within a few days#because this kid grew up to be involved in Forrest Gump levels of 20th century historical events#he was the youngest american general in wwii and was involved in the strategy of d-day and the planned invasion of Japan#he was at yalta and potsdam#he started a social sciences department at West Point#which resulted in his students being called commies because why should soldiers study culture and economics instead of shoot gun at thing#he ended up as the director of the office of emergency preparedness while nixon was president - hence the phone call#this poor man had to sit through so many meetings with Henry Kissinger#his younger brother (Waunce from the letter) was also a general#they were known as 'big abe' and 'little abe'
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What is it about fiber arts that just makes you fall down the worst rabbit hole of your life? 12 years ago I thought it would be fun to learn to crochet and now here I am spinning my own yarn from dog fur.
#like what happened to me#i promise this is still sane and normal#i am just being economical#clearly the spinning and the crochet go hand in hand#fiber art#yarn#chiengora#spinning#send help#fandanglegimcrack
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dystopian fucking world lmfao
#i’ll have more intelligent things to say at some point i have to finish writing my conclusion to the dissertation rn but like. what am i#supposed to say in response to a fucking apple news alert like this lmfao#imagine getting a telegram in 1929 that the country is about to economically fall apart like what the fuck lmfao
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coming soon: britechester townhouse(s) for rent 🔑
#this is supposed to be for students renting together. they share the living room the kitchen and the laundry room#havent updated nor downloaded the ep yet so we'll see how the lot works once i get it... heheh#i used a shell i already built 3 years ago because i am what? economic#used some maxis match cc because why not tbh#sims 4#ts4#sims 4 build#golden int#golden ext#sims 4 for rent#sims 4 university
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I was just thinking and like... pet names that Dottore would use? Are you kidding me??
Like, when he's teasing, he would use something like "Doll" to just make sure you know he's playing around. Just a little doll to play with.
"Don't make that face, you know I'm just joking, doll."
But if it was a more serious thing? He strikes me as a "my love" kinda guy. Or even "dearest" occasionally.
"Good morning, my love."
"Are you hungry, dearest?"
I like to think occasionally if he's busy and/or needs alone time he just pulls off his gloves, walks over to reader, cups their cheeks and
"Honey, sweetheart, light of my life, would you like to spend some time around the segments? Thank you, I love you."
RAAAAAAH HE MAKES ME INSANE
Although Dottore uses pet names a lot more frequently than his younger selves did (they still cringe a bit at it) of course he rarely ever uses them to fully or truly be romantic. There are times when cute ones like "my (be)love(d)/dear(est)" slip out without much thought, or perhaps you're especially vulnerable and need something more soothing. Whenever these moments happen, they never fail to be endearing and warm your heart, considering how foreign it feels to hear such things come out of that man’s mouth. You never get quite used to it and he most definitely abuses this.
…But a lot of time he uses them to rile you up or tease you, to see your expression change every couple of seconds at his sheer audacity. He finds it very amusing to see you chew on your lip, struggling to find the words to quip back like you normally do when bantering. It’s an experiment of sorts for the scholar(s). (Because the older segments also tend to partake in this to gather results.)
Dottore also loves to tease you with darling. He tends to stretch the word out too, dragging it out as he purrs it into your ear, in a very successful attempt (much to your dismay) to get you to calm down whenever he needs to - you can't be mad at him anymore when he goes into that tone, can you?
It’s also really obvious when Dottore's being sarcastic with his pet names like you said… the half-sincere and half-insincerity makes you pout a bit but, you’re not too mad about it. That’s just how he is sometimes. You’ll just go and bother some other segments and let them flirt with you, and then wait a bit for Prime to eventually come back and drag you away.
If you also happen to have any pet names that make you cringe, occasionally he likes to purposely use them on you to see you get embarrassed, laughing at your groans. Unfortunately, you won't be able to get him embarrassed. His main expressions toward your pet names are 1) indifference as he hums in response 2) confusion at something unusual or weird 3) mild annoyance if you continue to call him that weird pet name.
#smooches talks#dottore love notes <3#ngl 'doll' has never been one of my fav pet names but when i hear dottore say it... yes i am ur doll bb#regardless BITES HIM BITES HIM BITES HIM BITES HIM#BITES HIM BITES HIM BITES HIM BITES HIM#BITES HIM BITES HIM BITES HIM BITE#anyway i have finals soon... FEAR rn#actually no bc its gonna be summer soon and its gonna be mad hot and imma be pissed#i mean im mostly only scared for economics... i cant describe how much idk whats going on lmao
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