#Economic outlook

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

What a front cover...

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LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

March 6, 2025

Heather Cox Richardson

Mar 07, 2025

This morning, Ted Hesson and Kristina Cooke of Reuters reported that the Trump administration is preparing to deport the 240,000 Ukrainians who fled Russia’s attacks on Ukraine and have temporary legal status in the United States. Foreign affairs journalist Olga Nesterova reminded Americans that “these people had to be completely financially independent, pay tax, pay all fees (around $2K) and have an affidavit from an American person to even come here.”

“This has nothing to do with strategic necessity or geopolitics,” Russia specialist Tom Nichols posted. “This is just cruelty to show [Russian president Vladimir] Putin he has a new American ally.”

The Trump administration’s turn away from traditional European alliances and toward Russia will have profound effects on U.S. standing in the world. Edward Wong and Mark Mazzetti reported in the New York Times today that senior officials in the State Department are making plans to close a dozen consulates, mostly in Western Europe, including consulates in Florence, Italy; Strasbourg, France; Hamburg, Germany; and Ponta Delgada, Portugal, as well as a consulate in Brazil and another in Turkey.

In late February, Nahal Toosi reported in Politico that President Donald Trump wants to “radically shrink” the State Department and to change its mission from diplomacy and soft power initiatives that advance democracy and human rights to focusing on transactional agreements with other governments and promoting foreign investment in the U.S.

Elon Musk and the “Department of Government Efficiency” have taken on the process of cutting the State Department budget by as much as 20%, and cutting at least some of the department’s 80,000 employees. As part of that project, DOGE’s Edward Coristine, known publicly as “Big Balls,” is embedded at the State Department.

As the U.S. retreats from its engagement with the world, China has been working to forge greater ties. China now has more global diplomatic posts than the U.S. and plays a stronger role in international organizations. Already in 2025, about 700 employees, including 450 career diplomats, have resigned from the State Department, a number that normally would reflect a year’s resignations.

Shutting embassies will hamper not just the process of fostering goodwill, but also U.S. intelligence, as embassies house officers who monitor terrorism, infectious disease, trade, commerce, militaries, and government, including those from the intelligence community. U.S. intelligence has always been formidable, but the administration appears to be weakening it.

As predicted, Trump’s turn of the U.S. toward Russia also means that allies are concerned he or members of his administration will share classified intelligence with Russia, thus exposing the identities of their operatives. They are considering new protocols for sharing information with the United States. The Five Eyes alliance between Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the U.S. has been formidable since World War II and has been key to countering first the Soviet Union and then Russia. Allied governments are now considering withholding information about sources or analyses from the U.S.

Their concern is likely heightened by the return to Trump’s personal possession of the boxes of documents containing classified information the FBI recovered in August 2022 from Mar-a-Lago. Trump took those boxes back from the Department of Justice and flew them back to Mar-a-Lago on February 28.

A CBS News/YouGov poll from February 26–28 showed that only 4% of the American people sided with Russia in its ongoing war with Ukraine.

The unpopularity of the new administration's policies is starting to show. National Republican Congressional Committee chair Richard Hudson (R-NC) told House Republicans on Tuesday to stop holding town halls after several such events have turned raucous as attendees complained about the course of the Trump administration. Trump has blamed paid “troublemakers” for the agitation, and claimed the disruptions are part of the Democrats’ “game.” “[B]ut just like our big LANDSLIDE ELECTION,” he posted on social media, “it’s not going to work for them!”

More Americans voted for someone other than Trump than voted for him.

Even aside from the angry protests, DOGE is running into trouble. In his speech before a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, Trump referred to DOGE and said it “is headed by Elon Musk, who is in the gallery tonight.” In a filing in a lawsuit against DOGE and Musk, the White House declared that Musk is neither in charge of DOGE nor an employee of it. When pressed, the White House claimed on February 26 that the acting administrator of DOGE is staffer Amy Gleason. Immediately after Trump’s statement, the plaintiffs in that case asked permission to add Trump’s statement to their lawsuit.

Musk has claimed to have found billions of dollars of waste or fraud in the government, and Trump and the White House have touted those statements. But their claims to have found massive savings have been full of errors, and most of their claims have been disproved. DOGE has already had to retract five of its seven biggest claims. As for “savings,” the government spent about $710 billion in the first month of Trump’s term, compared with about $630 billion during the same timeframe last year.

Instead of showing great savings, DOGE’s claims reveal just how poorly Musk and his team understand the work of the federal government. After forcing employees out of their positions, they have had to hire back individuals who are, in fact, crucial to the nation, including the people guarding the U.S. nuclear stockpile. In his Tuesday speech, Trump claimed that the DOGE team had found “$8 million for making mice transgender,” and added: “This is real.”

Except it’s not. The mice in question were not “transgender”; they were “transgenic,” which means they are genetically altered for use in scientific experiments to learn more about human health. For comparison, S.V. Date noted in HuffPost that in just his first month in office, Trump spent about $10.7 million in taxpayer money playing golf.

Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo pointed out today that people reporting on the individual cuts to U.S. scientific and health-related grants are missing the larger picture: “DOGE and Donald Trump are trying to shut down advanced medical research, especially cancer research, in the United States…. They’re shutting down medicine/disease research in the federal government and the government-run and funded ecosystem of funding for most research throughout the United States. It’s not hyperbole. That’s happening.”

Republicans are starting to express some concern about Musk and DOGE. As soon as Trump took office, Musk and his DOGE team took over the Office of Personnel Management, and by February 14 they had begun a massive purge of federal workers. As protests of the cuts began, Trump urged Musk on February 22 to be “more aggressive” in cutting the government, prompting Musk to demand that all federal employees explain what they had accomplished in the past week under threat of firing. That request sparked a struggle in the executive branch as cabinet officers told the employees in their departments to ignore Musk. Then, on February 27, U.S. District Judge William Alsup found that the firings were likely illegal and temporarily halted them.

On Tuesday, Senate majority leader John Thune (R-SD) weighed in on the conflict when he told CNN that the power to hire and fire employees properly belongs to Cabinet secretaries.

Yesterday, Musk met with Republican— but no Democratic— members of Congress. Senators reportedly asked Musk—an unelected bureaucrat whose actions are likely illegal—to tell them more about what’s going on. According to Liz Goodwin, Marianna Sotomayor, and Theodoric Meyer of the Washington Post, Musk gave some of the senators his phone number and said he wanted to set up a direct line for them when they have questions, allowing them to get a near-instant response to their concerns.” Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told reporters that Musk told the senators he would “create a system where members of Congress can call some central group” to get cuts they dislike reversed.

This whole exchange is bonkers. The Constitution gives Congress alone the power to make appropriations and pass the laws that decide how money is spent. Josh Marshall asks: “How on earth are we in this position where members of Congress, the ones who write the budget, appropriate and assign the money, now have to go hat in hand to beg for changes or even information from the guy who actually seems to be running the government?”

Later, Musk met with House Republicans and offered to set up a similar way for the members of the House Oversight DOGE Subcommittee to reach him. When representatives complained about the random cuts that were so upsetting constituents. Musk defended DOGE’s mistakes by saying that he “can’t bat a thousand all the time.”

This morning, U.S. District Judge John McConnell Jr. ruled in favor of a group of state attorneys general from 22 Democratic states and the District of Columbia, saying that Trump does not have the authority to freeze funding appropriated by Congress. McConnell wrote that the spending freeze "fundamentally undermines the distinct constitutional roles of each branch of our government." As Joyce White Vance explained in Civil Discourse, McConnell issued a preliminary injunction that will stay in place until the case, called New York v. Trump, works its way through the courts. The injunction applies only in the states that sued, though, leaving Republican-dominated states out in the cold.

Today, Trump convened his cabinet and, with Musk present, told the secretaries that they, and not Musk, are in charge of their departments. Dasha Burns and Kyle Cheney of Politico reported that Trump told the secretaries that Musk only has the power to make recommendations, not to make staffing or policy decisions.

Trump is also apparently feeling pressure over his tariffs of 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on imports from China that went into effect on Tuesday, which economists warned would create inflation and cut economic growth. Today, Trump first said he would exempt car and truck parts from the tariffs, then expanded exemptions to include goods covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) Trump signed in his first term. Administration officials say other tariffs will go into effect at different times in the future.

The stock market has dropped dramatically over the past three days owing to both the tariffs and the uncertainty over their implementation. But Trump denied his abrupt change had anything to do with the stock market.

“I’m not even looking at the market,” Trump said, “because long term, the United States will be very strong with what’s happening.”

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[youthchronical]

Why Trump wants to bring aluminum production back to the U.S.

Americans use a lot of aluminum. The metal is both lightweight and an effective conductor of electricity, giving it countless applications in transportation and energy systems alongside culinary work and more. “It really is the magic metal,” said Charles Johnson, president and CEO of the Aluminum Association. Aluminum is one of 50 “critical minerals” identified by the U.S. Geological Survey. But…

[trendtracker360writer]

China's factory activity is on the rise for the third month in a row, signaling a cautious recovery despite looming tariff threats from the new US administration. With the official PMI holding steady at 50.3, the focus is on revitalizing the struggling property market to keep domestic demand strong. Meanwhile, policymakers are bracing for potential trade tensions, as President-elect Trump has hinted at significant tariffs that could shake up China's export game. Preparing for a challenging year ahead, Chinese leaders are eyeing various stimulus measures and hoping to stabilize the economy by boosting consumer confidence. Navigating these economic waters will be crucial for China's growth strategy in the coming months.

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[newmediaandmarketing]

The Paradox of Spending: Debt vs. Economic Confidence

It’s a paradox playing out across the nation: consumers are racking up debt at record levels, buoyed by optimism about the economy even as economic uncertainty remains their primary concern. How did we get here, and what does it say about the psychology of spending in a precarious economic landscape? Continue reading The Paradox of Spending: Debt vs. Economic Confidence

[mymyproperty]

Malaysia's Economy: Growth on the Horizon

Ever heard someone say the Malaysian economy is “bad”? Here’s a positive update: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) forecasts a growth of 4-5% in 2024. That’s good news!   1. Malaysia’s economy to grow between 4.0-5.0pct in 2024: Bank Negara report www.nst.com.my Reasons for Optimism: Resilient Job Market: Low unemployment translates to more disposable income and spending power. Strong Household…

[wyrmfedgrave]

What’s really happening in America’s economy (Trump and Biden spin aside) | CNN Business

Supposedly an overview of the U.S.'s economic outlook.

Yet, it doesn't really deal with the true factor behind Greedflation, & its partner, Shrinkflation.

Corporate America has kept the price of goods up in an effort to make President Biden look 'responsible' for the higher prices.

And, they are buying up Republikkkan votes thru their political PACs.

Hoping to curry favor with Dictator Don - just so that they don't have to pay any taxes.

Let's make them pay their fair share - now & retroactively!!

After all, they've all been using legal 'loopholes' to avoid sharing their wealth with the rest of the nation...

I don't see that as they being overly fair.

[moneyecon]

Major Challenges for the US Economy in 2024

Bye Bye 2023. Welcome, 2024! Fear of the Recession was always there in 2023. However, 2023 happened to be one of the Best of the Year for the economy. As the U.S. Economy witnessed robust economic growth, with inflation slowly moving towards the Federal Reserve’s target, Employment was strong, consumption expenditure acted as a savior for the economy as a whole. In other words, the economy showed…

[kesarijournal]

Money, Myths, and the Modern World: Unraveling the Economic Tapestry from a Modern Monetary Theory Lens

**Welcome to the Grand Economic Theater!**Picture the global economy as a grand stage, where the U.S., Australia, and China play the leading roles, each grappling with their own economic scripts. But what if the script they’re reading from is due for a rewrite? Enter Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) – the understudy that’s been waiting in the wings, ready to challenge the status quo. Let’s embark on…

[asrarblog]

Global Economics Intelligence Executive Summary October 2023 – Asrar Qureshi’s Blog Post #881

[ajamouja]

Boeing's Q2 Earnings: Analysts Expect Wider Losses, But Revenue Rebound in Sight

[newmediaandmarketing]

The Schizophrenic Economy

The economy is a complex system, and predicting how it will behave is often difficult. In recent years, the economy has become increasingly schizophrenic, with periods of rapid growth followed by periods of stagnation or recession. This volatility has made it difficult for businesses to plan for the future and for individuals to make financial decisions. Continue reading Untitled

[ljgrealestate]

Interest rates Australia: Reserve Bank has a trick up its sleeve that could avoid much higher rates

Martin Place might be tempted by this option if it feels it has to tighten monetary policy and not just rely on its overnight cash rate to do the heavy lifting. — Read on www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/rba-has-trick-up-its-sleeve-that-could-avoid-much-higher-rates-20230517-p5d93i

[binimom]

China's economy is in trouble again

March Chaixin PMIs hit new highs, manufacturing PMIs slip

The latest China March Caixin Services PMI came in at 57.8, a 28-month high. However, the manufacturing PMI remained negative at 49.2, falling for the third month in a row. This is raising concerns about China's economic recovery. The private sector manufacturing PMI remained at 50.6, indicating that the economy is contracting. China has been focusing its efforts on the service sector to revive the economy, which has been deteriorating in the aftermath of the pandemic. Experts are warning that a decline in manufacturing could have major repercussions for the country.

Investors need to be cautious

The weakness in China's manufacturing sector is raising concerns about the country's economic recovery. The future of the Chinese economy is becoming increasingly unclear, and investors should take a more cautious approach to the country's economic outlook. If you are an investor with an interest in the Chinese economy, now is the time to make a very smart decision. There are many ways to invest in coins and stocks coming out of China. The state of the Chinese economy is constantly changing, and with it, concerns about the economic outlook. It is important to keep an eye on the state of the Chinese economy when making investment decisions.

[depressedhatakekakashi]

Au where everyone lives and Kakashi becomes Hokage when Hiruzen retires :)

The elder’s try to get Minato, but Shikaku still nominates Kakashi because he thinks he’d be a good Hokage, and ultimately Kakashi is chosen

Naturally Obito is a little crushed, but he quickly gets over it and decides to become the most obnoxious right hand man ever

He does not actually get to be the ‘right hand’ but is instead put on the new council Kakashi forms after retiring the elders. A voice Kakashi will happily listen to, and just as happily ignore if he thinks Obito is being hard headed