#predictive technology

[milkforgall]

Why have people historically turned to predictive behaviours and beliefs, through premonitions; and how has this evolved in the modern world? Abstract: In my essay I aim to understand why people continue to turn to predictive behaviours, either supernaturally or through modern technology, despite all of the evidence which opposes their accuracy. I look at the validity of premonition claims and see how this has evolved with our modern desire to predict and control.

Introduction:  How do premonitions traditionally present?  A premonition is a forewarning, or presentiment. (Allen, 1990) Premonitions traditionally present as supernatural visions of the future and have often been believed in terms of contact with a deity. In ancient Greek times for example, an oracle would be consulted for prophecies of the future, often seeking guidance in times of uncertainty. In this essay I attempt to analyse why people are drawn to premonitions of the future, and how this has developed over time. 

What are they, can they be explained?  I started by looking at Déjà vu and premonitions because of the link between the feeling of having already lived through a situation and the precognition of living through a situation. Also, Déjà vu is a common phenomenon, therefore it is easier to find more sound scientific data, rather than focusing on an isolated event where there is little way of discerning the truth. You can find more solid evidence for something observable, repeatable, and measurable, so there needs to be a way to reliably repeat the sensation of Déjà vu. 

Methodology: For this project I used studies to back up my main theories about premonition. For example, scientific research about Deja vu and the connection to people having illusory premonition, helped me to reach a conclusion about people relying on the illusion of control to feel secure. For example, the use of unreliable law enforcement technology, creating the illusion of security. I cross-referenced this with studies about how people's desire for premonition, or interest in supernatural abilities increases during times of low control, showing that it is not facts which people are looking for, but instead the comfort that perceived knowledge would give. 

Literature Review:  I decided to use studies from academic journals to support my project, because they are a reliable source of information. This is because they have been peer reviewed in order to be published. However, there could be problems with funding, as this could create bias. I also used books, as they have had to go through the publishing process, and therefore have to be fact-checked. I used historical case studies from the ancient Greeks in order to show an example of a time where people have believed and relied upon premonition. This research was not intended to act as a reliable source, but instead show an example of illusory premonition, therefore the fact it is inaccurate is part of the research. 

Main Findings: Dr Anne Cleary’s Déjà vu Generator:  Dr Anne Cleary and her team created a virtual reality Déjà vu generator to try and find the link between precognition and Déjà vu. They spatially mapped scenes to have identical proportions, but the themes were unrelated. People were more likely to report Déjà vu in the scenes that spatially resembled earlier but forgotten scenes amongst spatially unique scenes. If a scene was similar spatially, then Déjà vu was 27% more likely, if it was similar in multiple ways, Déjà vu was 59% more likely. “We cannot consciously remember the prior scene, but our brains recognise the similarity. That information comes through the unsettling feeling that we’ve been there before, but we can’t pin down where or why.”Cleary (Cleary, 2018) 

The Déjà vu generator then adapted to try and find an explanation for precognition. The same scenes were taken from the previous Déjà vu test, and converted into virtual reality tours, so that they would unfold over time like a real-life experience. So, a person would be following a virtual tour which would follow a particular navigational path through the scene, and end in a left-hand turn. Then later on in the study a person would be viewing an identically configured tour, following the same navigational path, but only up to a point, stopping just before the final left-hand turn. This was the method of putting someone in the middle of a memory to see if it would enable actual prediction, without being able to recall the previous tour. People showed no precognition ability whatsoever. However, they ran the study again and this time asked, “Do you feel like you know the direction of the next turn?”. Participants were 75% more likely to experience a feeling of precognition, and more likely to feel like they knew the direction of the next turn when they were experiencing Déjà vu then when they were not. (Cleary, 2018) 

This experiment does explain Déjà vu, but does it really apply to real life premonitions? Because it does show that our past experiences will create a sense of familiarity and give someone feeling that they know what will happen next, but it doesn’t explain prewarning’s people have, namely ones which come true. 

Cleary has a theory which could be used to counteract this, which is, when we are in the middle of a Déjà vu state, it feels like we are right on the verge of retrieving from our memory the entire situation around us, including how it unfolds. As the situation does unfold, and continues to feel intensely familiar, it could be taken to be a signal of having correctly predicted what was going to happen when we actually didn’t. In terms of the Déjà vu generator, when the tour went left, participants were asked if it unfolded as they had expected, and it was found that people are more likely to feel that they knew what would happen all along following Déjà vu. Another variant was run where participants were asked to rate how intense there feeling of familiarity within the scene was, and what was found was that when someone is faced with the juxtaposition of familiarity and novelty, when the familiarity is intense it can lead to an illusion of having known what would happen all along. (Cleary, 2018) (Cleary, 2018) 

Analysis:  Cleary’s Déjà vu generator still does not explain prewarning’s of an event. There are cases where people experience and record a premonition before it actually happens, which undermines Cleary’s explanation of illusory precognition in these instances. However, the idea of prewarning’s being due to past experiences could still be valid. This is because being subconsciously reminded, by a feeling of familiarity of an event, could be experienced as a prewarning of the event reoccurring. But in these cases, to what extent would this be common sense rather than a premonition? It makes sense for us to learn from our past experiences and to use then to avoid bad events reoccurring, does that have to be a premonition? 

As well as this, premonitions regarding the Titanic could be seen through this view too, as although it had never happened before, it makes sense that some people had concerns about its safety, and this does not have to be seen in a supernatural way. (Keefe, 2021) This is relevant to premonitions because it explains how we can understand them as an illusion. 

Case study: In 67 AD, Emperor Nero, who was just 30 years old and had killed his own mother in 59 AD, when visiting the Oracle was told: Your presence here outrages the god you seek. Go back, matricide! The number 73 marks the hour of your downfall! The incensed emperor had the Pythia burned alive. Nero thought he would have a long reign and die at 73. Instead, his reign came to a short end after a revolt by Galba who was 73 years of age at the time. (Parke, 2023) 

Can these explanations make sense of the case studies?  Yes, they can, because the premonition was already desired. The fact that the premonition was considered relevant despite the leap to connect the information, surely shows the desire for the premonitions to be true that discrepancies are overlooked, the fact the man who killed him was 73 and not Nero himself. 

What has driven the need for premonitions and does this explain their prevalence?  -socio-historical context: Throughout history, premonitions of the future have been believed in a supernatural sense., such as visions from God, or going to an oracle. In these times people had little control over their lives, so feelingthey had access greater power acted as a comfort. In the case of Emperor Nero and the oracle, despite the vague nature of the premonitions, people would maintain faith in them, and even adjust their interpretation of the premonition to find a meaning in it. (Parke, 2023)Oracles would be consulted in times of uncertainty, when the future was unsure, and oracles would give a sense of comfort during that time. This is consistent with Dr Cleary’s conclusion that premonition relies on illusion and people’s faith in them does not come from any real insight into the future, but on a desire to believe that they have more knowledge than they really do. 

-individual context: Precognitive abilities would allow people to predict the future, thus belief in these abilities should be differently endorsed when people most desire prediction, that is in situations of low control. Therefore, belief in precognition is a predictive control strategy that people can turn to when feeling low in control. As a result, loss of control will cause an increase in belief in precognition. Loss of control has been found to increase other types of paranormal beliefs, like superstition, which also include an element of being able to predict, or at least guide the future. In the case of precognition, people have a direct and exact channel to knowing the future through psychic means. These types of beliefs should therefore be particularly attractive as predictive control strategies in so far as the give people the illusion of being able to predict and therefore control the future. (Greenaway KH, 2013) 

Analysis:  This study is in agreement with the conclusions which Cleary drew from her study. She also concluded that it is illusory precognition which occurs, rather than true premonition. 

Are they the actualisation of a need within individuals/society?  Research:  People were drawn to predictability when they experienced loss of control, even to the extent of endorsing seemingly irrational beliefs about precognition. Therefore, these kinds of beliefs are a response to control deprivation, as belief in precognition increases perceived control. Predictive arts are highest in times of threat and uncertainty. It is at these moments that individuals feel the need to control the course of their lives. Belief in precognition meets this need by enabling people to feel that the future is predictable and can therefore be controlled. Regardless of whether precognitive abilities actually exist, therefore, belief in their existence serves an important psychological function of boosting perceived control in times of uncertainty. 

How do premonitions present now, what might this say about us?  Predictive Technology:  If belief in supernatural predictive abilities increases during times of uncertainty, then it makes sense that predictive technology should also experience a surge of popularity. However, the interest in this technology is, like supernatural premonition, not reliant on the accuracy of the technology, but on the perceived sense of control and power gained by the illusion of foreknowledge. This is highlighted by the use of unreliable technologies by the United States Law Enforcement Officers. This technology analyses data to try and predict who may commit crimes and where or when they are likely to be committed. (Fraerman, 2024) The persistent use of unreliable technology shows that people are drawn to the perceived comfort that this technology brings, rather than for any practical reasons. 

Research:  Health monitoring as a whole has become increasingly popular, with the use of Fitbit’s and apple watches to monitor steps, sleep and even stress. (Burnham, et al., 2018) But recently there has been a trend of non-diabetics wearing continuous glucose monitoring devices. This could be used to demonstrate how people are drawn to predictive control behaviours as there are no real health benefits to wearing these devises and in fact, they can even cause harm by people becoming obsessive and even leading to eating disorders. But despite this Dr Surampudi says, “Wearing a CGM may help someone who is not diabetic make informed nutritional choices, but it also has the potential to cause users to become overwhelmed by the information”. (Surampudi, 2023) 

Conclusions: In conclusion, the interest in premonition, through supernatural means or predictive technology, is driven by the comfort that perceived knowledge brings, and it is irrelevant how accurate it really is. When people turn to premonition, they are looking for illusory control in a time where they are in fact lacking in control. 

Bibliography:  Allen, R., 1990. The concise Oxford Dictionary of Current English. 8th Edition ed. New York: Oxford university press. 

Burnham, J. P. et al., 2018. Using wearable technology to predict health outcomes: a literature review. 

Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association, 25(9), p. 1221–1227. 

Cleary, A., 2018. Youtube. [Online] Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M6qXYJkhDc [Accessed 9 July 2023]. 

Cleary, A. M. &. C. A. B., 2018. Déjà Vu: An Illusion of Prediction. Sage Journals , 29(4), pp. 635-644.. 

Fraerman, A., 2024. RELYING ON UNRELIABLE TECH: UNCHECKED POLICE USE OF ALGORITHMIC TECHNOLOGIES. Santa Clara High Technology Law Journal, 40(2). 

Greenaway KH, L. W. H. M., 2013. Loss of Control Increases Belief in Precognition and Belief in Precognition Increases Control. PLoS ONE. Keefe, T., 2021. Premonition of the Titanic disaster. 1st ed. Leicestershire: Matador. 

Parke, H. W., 2023. Wikipedia. [Online] Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oracular_statements_from_Delphi [Accessed 15 April 2024]. 

Surampudi, V. M. M., 2023. UCLA Health. [Online] Available at: https://www.uclahealth.org/news/continuous-glucose-monitoring-becoming-popular-among-non [Accessed 10 December 2023].

[motion90affect]

A Glimpse into a Predictive Future | A.I and Statistics

[itsnothingbutluck]

..The Predictive Technology Of Today And Beyond Data is the lifeblood of predictive technology. Before computers, we had no way to collect and store the amount of raw information needed for accurate predictions. A lack of computing power also meant that even if we had the data, we wouldn’t have been able to glean actionable insights from it. More importantly, though, predictions like those made at the Seattle World’s Fair were so often inaccurate because people were able to make predictions only based on historical data.

As the CEO of a business process automation company, I’ve long studied predictive technology and how we can harness it to create more accurate visions. Thanks to sophisticated language processing and deeper artificial intelligence, we can now make predictions based on completely unstructured data from various sources and use it to answer abstract, ambiguous questions. Here are different ways three industries are adopting new forms of predictive technology to improve our lives…

[cologona]

Jason pretending to be a caricature of himself to see how inept/evil his family seriously believes him to be. Yes Tim I am going to kill babies to help poor people that is a real plan I have that I am going to do. Also help me change my Facebook status.

No one ever questions it though, and eventually it just becomes something he does- a defense mechanism. Bruce’s rejection, Dick’s barbs when he loses his cool, the others’ well-meaning comments and dismissals.. they can’t hurt him as much if they don’t really know him.

[echofromtheabyss]

Moderns who wanna be trad, really shouldn't pick the 50s to do it about if they wanna call themselves trad.

There was nothing "trad" about the 50s. First of all, the idea that women don't work and aren't involved in actual *production* let alone household production, was relatively new and... to a large degree, downstream of much of pre-war household production being augmented by technology and mass production. the idea that a household of five people could be supported on 40 hours a week, without the wife and children also being involved in production, was absolutely downstream of technology. So was a woman running a house without having to have a team of servants.

The "nuclear family" was a stepping stone toward atomization, in an economy that lasted for about... five minutes. It literally was a cultural artifact lasting twenty years only.

And it was futuristic as fuck, and downstream of technological innovation, not a return to the golden days, which most people actually remembered as quite horrible.

If you really wanna live in the spirit of the 50s for any reason but the shittiest and most sexist/racist parts of it, you'd want several Roomba's and a self driving car and would be the world's most annoying space nerd.

And you'd be great with stronger unions and you'd probably be okay with vaccines

[marlynnofmany]

I tell myself that someday these will be valuable collector's items, instead of just an annoying printing error.

Remember that "black hole between the pages" glitch? I found more copies at the bottom of the box with it. Time to print out more little ~collector's item~ leaflets with the missing text. Sigh.

[b1acksh33p999]

Notes on Pluto shift into Aquarius:

-Pluto has been in Capricorn for the past 20 years. On March 24th, 2023 it will finally move in Aquarius. (First for 3 months- then it will retrograde back into Capricorn. It will move into Aquarius in mid November of 2024 and stay in Aquarius.) This shift will do many things for our government and changes in currency. It will also affect our weather patterns drastically, adding an emphasis on unpredictability factors regarding weather events known to specific areas.

Weather change predictions:

Over the next 5 years (especially), the once heavily predicable weather patterns will completely change course. I see storms reaching new levels of disaster, the first ever E6 tornado on record, earthquake events increase with more rain and flooding events being recorded. This prediction is localized to the West coast of America. Lightning storms and damaging lightning events will increase everywhere, including outside of America. And as temperatures continue to rise, so will the seas. This flooding out the coastline city’s of most continents on the planet.

Keeping in mind- with the changes in patterns, certain insects or animals may move locations over this time in order to survive in habitable locations. Expect a rise in new insects and animals (mainly birds) in your location.

Why only 5 years for these predictions?

⁃ Well to put it simply, the next 5 years will be the transition period for Pluto. This sets us up to understand fully what to expect by the midpoint ( which is about 10 years).

⁃ During transitional periods the themes of the transit push themselves into the surface. Refuse to be silenced or ignored. This energy with Pluto adds to the chaotic amount of unstopped change. And with Pluto in the sign Aquarius, is a statement saying very loud expect the unexpected. Aquarius is known as the water barrier- that’s why it will affect things like rainfall, and tide changes. It being an air sign, and having energy that likes pushing limits and making a new category where it will fit, this is how I was able to predict the first E6 on record.

Non weather changes prediction timeline:

⁃ all bills being paid online, offering bigger deal incentives for paperless route. Marketing increases on paperless billing and apps to help pay bills for those more resistant to turning.

⁃ The rise of humans choosing to get chipped and giving up credit cards, drivers license, health insurance card, house keys etc. Instead all information is within the chip. This trend will start on social media and ‘blow up’ via influencers, controversy, and sociological divisions. Some get the chip, some refuse. By the end of the transit many accommodations will be made for influx of chipped citizens. New technology developed to further the expansion once the populations hit 50% chipped.

⁃ Influx in reprogramming citizens to get chipped by 16-20 years of transit. Social media influencers and celebrities being paid off to Alienate those who refuse to get chipped. This sure enough changes the popular opinion of being chipped. Lessening the amount of power the voices who fight this change have in media. They become a part of “cancel culture”, and those who speak down on these divisions frame them as old, outdated, and “stuck in the past”. They also greatly inflate the amount of power “the younger generations have now”.

⁃ by it’s completion, and into the transition period of Pluto in Pisces, paper money will be considered an antique, making its values increase and causing people to get chipped for financial benefits. At the same time, the U.S government has been slowly removing cash within the economy, thus pushing the chip.

⁃ The great influx of new technologies, built from space matter, and secrets deciphered in space.

⁃ Shift from chip to retina scan.

⁃ Air quality decline throughout transit. This may improve during Pluto in Pisces.

A look ahead: (2043-2067)

⁃ Pluto in Pisces: it is important to note that during this time the main shift will be the attitude towards money. The once heavily known “hustle” society that was found in America will be slowly deteriorating throughout this transit. Instead people will be focused more on quality of life, and living self sufficiently.

⁃ A rise in spiritual abilities being confirmed and normalized within modern media.

⁃ A possibility of sabotage of peace, with the release of new drugs. A rise in drug addiction.

⁃ A rise in practical, and common introspection. Those within their prime during this pluto transit will seem more insightful, intuitive, and advanced than others that came before.

⁃ A rise in charity work and funding for mental health and drug addiction.

⁃ Major psychological developments found to help those struggling with mental health disorders and disease. The discovery of the neurological and genetic makeup needed for schizophrenia and bipolar to thrive.

⁃ This new information will help the next generations prevent passing down the specific genetic factors to prevent schizophrenia from presenting.

⁃ A rise in great artwork and music, some of the greatest artists from this time will also struggle with drug addiction, or mental health.

⁃ The rise of a new perspective of lifespan, focused on creation and appreciation.

⁃ More technology created to go further into space, and the first colonization of humans in space. A lot of secret projects sending families to new planets to study and discover if it’s habitable for humans.

⁃ Sea levels rise drastically. Venice will be underwater by the midpoint of this transit.

[ramenwithbroccoli]

in my childhood, i was gifted one of those books of random facts. one of them was about 'famous doctors' in media, one of them being doctor who, with a short explanation below - that he's actually not really a doctor, but an eccentric alien with two hearts, who helps humanity.

however, as a kid with no acces to british television and basic level of english, facts mixed in my head, and i became convinced that the fact was refering to doctor House, from the famous show doctor house, which my mom watched sometimes. so everytime i hung around and it was on the tv i looked at it and thought "damn, that's pretty stressful. not only is this guy puking his guts out but they'll have to deal with aliens at some point"

[nostalgia-tblr]

a young person has been trying to explain how to type on my phone like a young person does (they use their thumbs, wtf?) and i have not yet done it enough to see improvement but i need to report my shock that using your thumbs does not seem to be worse than using the typing finger of the hand that isn't holding the phone. this seems MADNESS as thumbs are the wide fingers! and yet. i suppose if that's the way they're supposed to be used (phones, not thumbs) they probably make phones with that in mind. that you're using your widest fingers on the tiny tiny keyboard. insanely.

[thirdity]

The criterion of common sense was never applicable to the history of the human race. Averroës, Kant, Socrates, Newton, Voltaire, could any of them have believed it possible that in the twentieth century the scourge of cities, the poisoner of lungs, the mass murderer and idol of millions would be a metal receptacle on wheels, and that people would actually prefer being crushed to death inside it during frantic weekend exoduses instead of staying, safe and sound, at home?

Stanisław Lem, The Futurological Congress

[gaillol-13]

Shower thoughts today.

[stone-cold-groove]

From 1969 - an unusual television screen.

[crappyravioli]

Hey guys you should share things that you think will happen between now and 2050, like new inventions, medical breakthroughs, political changes etc. I’m trying to come up with a speculative future for a project I’m working on!! Anything from promising projects that are being worked on right now to things that just Seem like that’s where we are headed!! Even things that you just think would be Cool as hell, please and thank you :]

Just put it in a reblog or in the tags or notes, whatever you feel most comfortable with!! Any links to sources you have on hand as well would be greatly appreciated!!

[chaotic-history]

phone said it wasn't charging cause there was water in the port and that i needed to wait for it dry and the FEAR i felt. this thing has been on the brink of death for more than six months and i would not have been surprised had that been it. it's working now after an hour of drying out above the radiator but i think i need to take this as a sign to get a physical ID/keycard that's not just in an app

[zapsoda]

not that im counting but black mirror has had 2 different on screen pissing scenes thus far

[malewifehenrycooldown]

JC Denton is one of the more generic looking game protagonists, but he MORE than makes up for it in his personality (or rather the deadpan delivery of his responses during conversational dialogue with other characters is what makes him so appealing to me.)