#over the last 40 years

[el-ffej]

IMO: Absolutely, positively spot-on. Been a software engineer from 1980 to 2016, and this just nails the tech industry economics (and phases) that I saw then, and that I see now.

Must-read. Brilliantly written and on target. Kudos and applause, OP.

If anyone wants to know why every tech company in the world right now is clamoring for AI like drowned rats scrabbling to board a ship, I decided to make a post to explain what's happening.

(Disclaimer to start: I'm a software engineer who's been employed full time since 2018. I am not a historian nor an overconfident Youtube essayist, so this post is my working knowledge of what I see around me and the logical bridges between pieces.)

Okay anyway. The explanation starts further back than what's going on now. I'm gonna start with the year 2000. The Dot Com Bubble just spectacularly burst. The model of "we get the users first, we learn how to profit off them later" went out in a no-money-having bang (remember this, it will be relevant later). A lot of money was lost. A lot of people ended up out of a job. A lot of startup companies went under. Investors left with a sour taste in their mouth and, in general, investment in the internet stayed pretty cooled for that decade. This was, in my opinion, very good for the internet as it was an era not suffocating under the grip of mega-corporation oligarchs and was, instead, filled with Club Penguin and I Can Haz Cheezburger websites.

Then around the 2010-2012 years, a few things happened. Interest rates got low, and then lower. Facebook got huge. The iPhone took off. And suddenly there was a huge new potential market of internet users and phone-havers, and the cheap money was available to start backing new tech startup companies trying to hop on this opportunity. Companies like Uber, Netflix, and Amazon either started in this time, or hit their ramp-up in these years by shifting focus to the internet and apps.

Now, every start-up tech company dreaming of being the next big thing has one thing in common: they need to start off by getting themselves massively in debt. Because before you can turn a profit you need to first spend money on employees and spend money on equipment and spend money on data centers and spend money on advertising and spend money on scale and and and

But also, everyone wants to be on the ship for The Next Big Thing that takes off to the moon.

So there is a mutual interest between new tech companies, and venture capitalists who are willing to invest $$$ into said new tech companies. Because if the venture capitalists can identify a prize pig and get in early, that money could come back to them 100-fold or 1,000-fold. In fact it hardly matters if they invest in 10 or 20 total bust projects along the way to find that unicorn.

But also, becoming profitable takes time. And that might mean being in debt for a long long time before that rocket ship takes off to make everyone onboard a gazzilionaire.

But luckily, for tech startup bros and venture capitalists, being in debt in the 2010's was cheap, and it only got cheaper between 2010 and 2020. If people could secure loans for ~3% or 4% annual interest, well then a $100,000 loan only really costs $3,000 of interest a year to keep afloat. And if inflation is higher than that or at least similar, you're still beating the system.

So from 2010 through early 2022, times were good for tech companies. Startups could take off with massive growth, showing massive potential for something, and venture capitalists would throw infinite money at them in the hopes of pegging just one winner who will take off. And supporting the struggling investments or the long-haulers remained pretty cheap to keep funding.

You hear constantly about "Such and such app has 10-bazillion users gained over the last 10 years and has never once been profitable", yet the thing keeps chugging along because the investors backing it aren't stressed about the immediate future, and are still banking on that "eventually" when it learns how to really monetize its users and turn that profit.

The pandemic in 2020 took a magnifying-glass-in-the-sun effect to this, as EVERYTHING was forcibly turned online which pumped a ton of money and workers into tech investment. Simultaneously, money got really REALLY cheap, bottoming out with historic lows for interest rates.

Then the tide changed with the massive inflation that struck late 2021. Because this all-gas no-brakes state of things was also contributing to off-the-rails inflation (along with your standard-fare greedflation and price gouging, given the extremely convenient excuses of pandemic hardships and supply chain issues). The federal reserve whipped out interest rate hikes to try to curb this huge inflation, which is like a fire extinguisher dousing and suffocating your really-cool, actively-on-fire party where everyone else is burning but you're in the pool. And then they did this more, and then more. And the financial climate followed suit. And suddenly money was not cheap anymore, and new loans became expensive, because loans that used to compound at 2% a year are now compounding at 7 or 8% which, in the language of compounding, is a HUGE difference. A $100,000 loan at a 2% interest rate, if not repaid a single cent in 10 years, accrues to $121,899. A $100,000 loan at an 8% interest rate, if not repaid a single cent in 10 years, more than doubles to $215,892.

Now it is scary and risky to throw money at "could eventually be profitable" tech companies. Now investors are watching companies burn through their current funding and, when the companies come back asking for more, investors are tightening their coin purses instead. The bill is coming due. The free money is drying up and companies are under compounding pressure to produce a profit for their waiting investors who are now done waiting.

You get enshittification. You get quality going down and price going up. You get "now that you're a captive audience here, we're forcing ads or we're forcing subscriptions on you." Don't get me wrong, the plan was ALWAYS to monetize the users. It's just that it's come earlier than expected, with way more feet-to-the-fire than these companies were expecting. ESPECIALLY with Wall Street as the other factor in funding (public) companies, where Wall Street exhibits roughly the same temperament as a baby screaming crying upset that it's soiled its own diaper (maybe that's too mean a comparison to babies), and now companies are being put through the wringer for anything LESS than infinite growth that Wall Street demands of them.

Internal to the tech industry, you get MASSIVE wide-spread layoffs. You get an industry that used to be easy to land multiple job offers shriveling up and leaving recent graduates in a desperately awful situation where no company is hiring and the market is flooded with laid-off workers trying to get back on their feet.

Because those coin-purse-clutching investors DO love virtue-signaling efforts from companies that say "See! We're not being frivolous with your money! We only spend on the essentials." And this is true even for MASSIVE, PROFITABLE companies, because those companies' value is based on the Rich Person Feeling Graph (their stock) rather than the literal profit money. A company making a genuine gazillion dollars a year still tears through layoffs and freezes hiring and removes the free batteries from the printer room (totally not speaking from experience, surely) because the investors LOVE when you cut costs and take away employee perks. The "beer on tap, ping pong table in the common area" era of tech is drying up. And we're still unionless.

Never mind that last part.

And then in early 2023, AI (more specifically, Chat-GPT which is OpenAI's Large Language Model creation) tears its way into the tech scene with a meteor's amount of momentum. Here's Microsoft's prize pig, which it invested heavily in and is galivanting around the pig-show with, to the desperate jealousy and rapture of every other tech company and investor wishing it had that pig. And for the first time since the interest rate hikes, investors have dollar signs in their eyes, both venture capital and Wall Street alike. They're willing to restart the hose of money (even with the new risk) because this feels big enough for them to take the risk.

Now all these companies, who were in varying stages of sweating as their bill came due, or wringing their hands as their stock prices tanked, see a single glorious gold-plated rocket up out of here, the likes of which haven't been seen since the free money days. It's their ticket to buy time, and buy investors, and say "see THIS is what will wring money forth, finally, we promise, just let us show you."

To be clear, AI is NOT profitable yet. It's a money-sink. Perhaps a money-black-hole. But everyone in the space is so wowed by it that there is a wide-spread and powerful conviction that it will become profitable and earn its keep. (Let's be real, half of that profit "potential" is the promise of automating away jobs of pesky employees who peskily cost money.) It's a tech-space industrial revolution that will automate away skilled jobs, and getting in on the ground floor is the absolute best thing you can do to get your pie slice's worth.

It's the thing that will win investors back. It's the thing that will get the investment money coming in again (or, get it second-hand if the company can be the PROVIDER of something needed for AI, which other companies with venture-back will pay handsomely for). It's the thing companies are terrified of missing out on, lest it leave them utterly irrelevant in a future where not having AI-integration is like not having a mobile phone app for your company or not having a website.

So I guess to reiterate on my earlier point:

Drowned rats. Swimming to the one ship in sight.

[felixakranken]

TWF fans have a strange habit of, for lack of a better word, woobifying Mr. Walten.

I think a lot of you seem to take this series a lot less serious than it actually is, and those same people have a very bad habit of making Jack out to be a saint. He's just a normal guy. Just because he loves his family doesn't mean he's some sweet and perfect guy who has no flaws. I never see any of you discuss or portray his anger issues that Martin has mentioned numerous times.

You all blatantly ignore the fact that Sophie's only memories she retained of him were that he was angry and he worked all the time. Just because he loves his family and didn't abuse them doesn't mean he's perfect. To deny him of these flaws take away what a dynamic character he's being written to be.

We know Felix sucks. We all know this because no one shuts up about it. That's his best friend of 20 years, someone he chose to have around his family, and someone he chose to start a business with. Felix's actions don't reflect on Jack, obviously, but you have to think about the fact they are best friends of 2 decades.

The small bit we know about Jack and what things Martin has let on to his personality over time is very different than what everyone makes him out to be, and it's strange. If you choose to ignore that Jack is just a normal middle-aged man in the 70s, that's on your own inability to actually like the character that's there.

[andyridgeley]

[kindlythevoid]

One of the best parts of Fellowship of the Ring is finding out about Aragorn and Bilbo’s friendship. Like I’ve seen people talk about how they collaborated on the song together, but I have yet to see people talk about this:

“[Bilbo] turned to Strider. ‘Where have you been, my friend? Why weren’t you at the feast? The Lady Arwen was there.’”

Bilbo Baggins, The Fellowship of the Ring pg. 261

Like. Bilbo was definitely one of Aragorn/Arwen’s chief shippers and no one can change my mind about that.

[mrsfitzgerald]

richard & paul | tour'23 | part I ♡

[overly-hubristic-mad-scientist]

I feel like the Herbert gets a lot of shit for wearing a suit everywhere, but everyone just ignores the fact that Dan has been wearing the same dry ass white sneakers for 2 movies. Like he wore that shit to serve in a fucking war.

[sprinklersart]

they should show up to kazansky family events together occasionally over the years and do fun family things like share an air mattress in the living room with ices 19 year old cousin and take a 4 hour trip to the grocery store just for milk and chainsmoke behind the shed with ice’s sister. they deserve it ❤️

[rapha-reads]

To those of you wondering (aka no one), I finished both The Vampire Armand and Merrick and I have a lot of thoughts and feels. I'm skipping Blood and Gold for now to go directly to Blackwood Farm (I'll read B&G later), but first I'm going to read something else, just to take a break.

TVA thoughts: man, Armand is messed up. And extremely compelling. But so messed up. As always, the theme of faith crisis, which seriously reaches new heights with these bitchy vampires, is not something I can fully immerse myself in, but it was fascinating to see his numerous metamorphosis. I liked how he bridges Western and Eastern Christianisme, especially through art. Now I'm thinking that if Rolin Jones makes him originally Muslim in the show, that could expand even more the conversation on how faith, and especially Abrahamic faith, has been in conversation for thousands of years and could be such a rich, diverse and spiritual, intellectual and artistic theme. I can already imagine some fascinating discussions comparing (not in a superior way but in a complementary way) coming from Muslim faith to Roman Catholic faith, the way book!Armand talks about the richness of his life in Kiev Rus despite the poverty and ascetism, and the richness of his life in Venecia despite the luxury and abundance.

As for Benamin and Sybille... I don't have much thoughts about them. Sybille is one of those female characters AR seemingly favors, not so much human as a nymph or a dryad, "perfectly splendid". And Benji is a caricature of an Arab child. Nuance? 401 not found.

Merrick thoughts: David for the love if everything, shut. The. Fuck. Up. Holy moly. I like David, I do, but damn the entire recollection of his history with Merrick was looooooong. I'm here to see Louis haunted by Claudia and haunting Lestat's coma, not how hard you're pining for the kid you practically raised! Also. ALSO. You're just going to leave that whole thing with the Olmec or possibly another more ancient Mesoamerican civilisation without ever giving us more? That was the most interesting part of it all! The vodoo history, the connection between Louisiana and Caribbean vodoo and old Native South-American religions! More about this, less about Merrick's perfect breasts, I am begging you. (It is at this point that the reader of this post realises OP is 100% definitely ace and more interested in books and witchcraft than breasts and whether a 70yo man can still get it up - also, hey, Anne Rice's vampires are practically asexual and their lust and pleasure is mostly derivated from blood, with some notable exceptions like Armand and Marius, and a love relationship between two vampires is then based on romantic love and blood sharing, so can I hear a hell yeah for some ace representation or are we still conflating eroticism with sex)

Another thing I kept thinking about throughout the book is how Louis is perceived by his fellow vampires. Since basically the second book, since we've lost his own POV, everybody who's ever said anything about him (so Lestat, Armand and David) have insisted on two points: how very weak and meek Louis is, and also how irresistible, beautiful and charming. Granted, I've known Louis first through his portrayal on the show (hi Jacob you're so fiiiiiiine), and then through his own narration in the first book, but I've never had the impression that he was weak. Beautiful and seductive, yes. Weak? I see a human man going through tragedies and still enduring, going through vampiric transformation and then suffering for decades the loss of his humanity, struggling with reconciliating both sides of himself, but mostly I see a vampire who rebuilt himself after losing everything without sacrificing his sense of self. I see Louis as very strong actually (up to the point where resilience breaks, because resilience cannot be sustained on a long term, but that's another debate). He knows who he is, and don't you know how hard that is? He doesn't cling to faith or pride. He knows he's doomed, he knows he's monstrous, he knows there's nothing he can do to change that, and instead of railing against his fate, he goes on about his undead life. He gets his books and he reads them, he surrounds himself with literature and what little comforts he thinks in his shattered self-esteem he deserves (his ragged sweaters and soft trousers); let's not lie to ourselves tho, Louis doesn't like himself, or more exactly he doesn't care about his corporeal body - what matters to him is his mind, and once again, this author is extremely ace and also very aro and very nonbinary, so Louis to me is very much ace and agender coded, though really not aro, because his love for Lestat (and sometimes his fondness, shall we say, for Armand) is the only thing that can rouse him up from his literary slumber.

...

Oh, man, I have a lot to say about Louis, for how little he appears in the books so far. Still have BF, BC and the PL trilogy to devour. So I guess you can say, for as much as Lestat is occupying my entire brain, very much like him, my favorite is Louis? Yeah, that tracks. Melancholy, quiet, dark-haired green-eyed monster with more humanity than humans, preferring his solitude and the company of books to anyone else, hopelessly and helplessly devoted to one person, expert in brooding and grieving, literature specialist, not very attached to his physical self. Yeah. I'm not surprised.

[pandoratelenor]

I just realised that:

1. Because bioware often rehire voice actors they used before

2. In voice acting it does not matter if your age do not match your characters age

A majority of DAV voice actors are middle aged. And are all soppused act like Emmrichs:

"i have reached the dreadful age of.... being in my 50s, i am about to die ANY second. No i don't have a disease or anything. But as we all know i am SO OLD, that clearly i need to do something to become immortal right now!

Being in my 50s, pah! *swoons* catch these old bones before i fall, i could no handly such a dreadful impact on my fragile old body!"

Thing makes sense! While themselves being in their 50s (or late 40s). What a performance lol!

More credit to how all these middle aged voice actors needed to surpress their giggles to deliver lines that are basically like:

"Ah yes being middle aged, surely the oldest a person could possible be"

With a serious voice pfft

[hoperays-song]

Sing Father's Day Headcanons: Johnny and Marcus Edition

When he was little, Johnny and his mum would make breakfast for Marcus on Father's Day. The year after she died, Marcus tried to. convince Johnny that he, 1) didn't need to do that, and 2.)was too little to use the stove anyways. This just resulted in Johnny just giving him a bowl of ice cream with a burnt piece of toast on top for breakfast since that didn't involve said stove with a proud smirk.

Johnny tends to join Marcus in the garage on Father's Day. They take some customers but most of the day they spend messing around with the cars they keep as personal projects.

As he got older, Johnny also started insisting on making dinner for his dad, Barry and Stan as well. They were a bit worried on how edible the food would be at first, but it always turned out well.

Barry and Stan also get Marcus "Big Brother's Day" cards on Father's Day. He hangs them up in his room next to all of Johnny's.

Nooshy, upon getting adopted, noticed the card tradition and up her own spin on it, making Marcus go on a treasure hunt for his card from her.

And when Ryan starts dating Johnny, he starts calling Marcus on Father's Day as well.

All of Johnny's childhood gifts to his father were signed "from your favourite child".

Father's Day is the one day a year that Marcus and Stan can actually watch a Premier League Match without Johnny and Barry immediately complaining.

During the special Father's Day shows at the theatre, Johnny always dedicates his to Marcus and his uncles. They cry every time.

[helielune]

powder keg (full under the cut)

[fruitless-vain]

I feel like it is potentially not the wildest idea that perhaps if you Hate Christmas and are going to be a Rude Ass Cunt for the entire evening it may be a good idea to not demand that the holiday happens at your house? Demanding that *you host* claiming that you *love hosting* and then, actually, getting mad at everyone for every little thing and overall just having an obnoxious attitude complaining left right and centre over any thing you can think of

You can just choose to not be a part of the holiday. You can be a grown ass adult and say “I don’t want to receive or give gifts this year” or “I’m not liking hosting so let’s do it elsewhere” or any number of potential communication tactics that aren’t Snapping At Everyone For Any Given Reason

You can just, yknow, not participate instead of actively ruining the evening for everyone you’re supposed to care about?

[anartificialsatellite]

Just got word I did not get referred for a job I applied to and it hit me way harder than I thought it was going to, and I'm not having a great day 2day

[loderlied]

at least i get to say that my hypochondriac delusions about dying soon weren't delusions at all lmao. small w

[disdaidal]

I wanna thank my irl friends who follow me here and also my beloved mutuals as well as followers who still send me kind messages and try to interact with me and my stuff even if I'm bad at doing it myself.

Honestly, things haven't been that great with me lately, so... it means a lot to me. Honestly. <3

[pommolove]

I miss him more than ever, everything feels so empty without him. I just need his loving arms around me again, I can't take this

late nights like these make me crazy, what do you mean I will never feel his love again? n' my dumb ass regularly listening to Jeff Buckley is not making this any easier