#lucamore strong

[allyriadayne]

was looking for a post in my blog for my last ask and this came to me....

(Ser Lucamore's Pleas by John McCambridge)

[marwyn]

About Harrenhal… It is often suggested that the castle punishes ambition and resists possession. I think that the so-called curse may not lie in the place itself, but in the kind of people who hold it, and the relationship they impose upon it. Harrenhal emerged from violence, constructed by enslaved workers under Harren the Black, whose lineage was annihilated in the dragonfire that engulfed the castle. That legacy of domination, cruelty, and ruin is etched into Harrenhal's foundations. Those who come after and attempt to reclaim/use it through similar means often meet violent ends. I think it punishes those who repeat the pattern of violent extraction that created it. House Strong, by contrast, does not appear to be undone by the castle. Instead, they function as a lineage of caretakers/mediators, not in a physical or restorative sense, but through relational, political, and symbolic continuity. They do not try to rebuild Harrenhal, nor do they wield it as a symbol of dominance. They seem to coexist with it, living within the ruin, not in opposition to it. As a result, they appear largely unaffected by the castle’s destabilizing narrative pattern. It’s only when Daemon starts trying to 'claim' Harrenhal that the visions begin. Simon is the only one who pulls Daemon out of his trance-like state, so he may act as a literal mediator between space and psyche. Alys, on the other hand, seems to shape Harrenhal’s atmosphere as its intermediary. She guides, maybe even imposes, the visions Daemon experiences. Interestingly, the Strong occupy roles across generations, emphasizing proximity, containment, and institutional service rather than overt displays of power. Larys is narratively framed as an anomaly: a deliberate break from the family's established pattern of stewardship/servitude, marked instead by manipulation and destruction. When Aemond executes the last of the Strongs of Harrenhal (though Lucamore Strong’s descendants may still exist elsewhere), the lineage of stewards is extinguished. The castle passes into the hands of outsiders motivated by violence. From then on, Harrenhal resumes its familiar cycle of chaos, vacancy, and symbolic rot. And no Simon Strong to bring back/wake up Aemond from the visionshorrors he might experience....At least, that is my take...

Wonderfully thoughtful analysis, thank you!

It is often suggested that the castle punishes ambition and resists possession. I think that the so-called curse may not lie in the place itself, but in the kind of people who hold it, and the relationship they impose upon it.

I really like the idea that to set eyes on possessing Harrenhal is to meet the gaze of the abyss.

That legacy of domination, cruelty, and ruin is etched into Harrenhal's foundations. […] House Strong, by contrast, does not appear to be undone by the castle.

While (most) of the Strongs are not graspingly ambitious, I do think the show at least is making the case that cruelty and pride contribute to their downfall. In S1 E6 Larys plays into the existing superstitions by arranging for his own father and elder brother to be destroyed in a fire there at Harrenhal, and in S2 E6 he tells Aegon that when he was born his father blamed his disability on dark magic cast by “a member of [their] household,” presumably Alys. I cannot imagine that which followed was at all pleasant for her or Larys, and I’m reminded of D. Marcel DeCoste’s argument that much of the destruction wreaked by Littlefinger is “the bloody ramifications of [Hoster Tully’s] rejection of Baelish’s otherness”, as neither Larys nor Littlefinger are warriors but have contrived to kill in order to improve their own stations and exact revenge for the wounds of their childhoods, and both have been Lord of Harrenhal. Simon tells Daemon in S2 E3 that “Larys Clubfoot is no lord of [his]”, and while he proceeds to share his (correct) suspicions that his nephew was behind the deaths of Lyonel and Harwin, his use of that epithet suggests an antipathy deriving at least partially from ableism, and so I’m curious to see if the show’s treatment of Aemond’s decision to execute Simon and the other trueborn Strongs while sparing Alys will shed more light on the family’s past. It’s perhaps also worth noting that neither Larys, Daemon, nor Aemond survives the Dance, and while Alys’s ultimate fate is unknown, her possession of Harrenhal as its “witch queen” and the alleged widow of Aemond and mother of their trueborn son isn’t exactly unambitious, so I wonder if she eventually came to a premature end as well.

[studyofasoiaf]

Names used in the Riverlands

(according to books; names of characters from houses in the Riverlands)

next to the names are either houses which have a character/s with that name or culture of the character/s with that name

Female

Agnes (Blackwood)

Alys (Frey, Harroway)

Alyssa (Blackwood)

Alysanne (Blackwood, Bracken)

Alyx (Frey)

Amerei (Frey)

Arwyn (Frey)

Barba (Bracken)

Barbara (Bracken)

Beatrice (Buttterwell)

Bellena (Hawick)

Betha (Blackwood)

Bethany (Blackwood, Bracken)

Bess (Bracken)

Carellan (Smallwood)

Catelyn (Bracken, Tully)

Celia (Tully)

Cersei (Frey)

Cynthea (Frey)

Danelle (Lothston)

Darla (Deddings)

Della (Frey)

Eleanor (Mooton)

Elyana (Vypren)

Emberlei (Frey)

Emphyria (Vance)

Gwenys (Riverman)

Hanna (Harroway)

Hostella (Frey)

Jayne (Bracken)

Jeyne (Darry, Goodbrook, Harroway, Lothston, Mooton, Smallwood)

Jirelle (Mooton)

Joyeuse (Erenford)

Jyanna (Frey)

Kyra (Frey)

Leana (Frey)

Liane (Vance)

Lysa (Tully)

Lythene (Frey)

Maegelle (Frey)

Marianne (Vance)

Mariya (Darry)

Marissa (Frey)

Melantha (Blackwood)

Melissa (Blackwood)

Mellara (Riverman)

Melony (Piper)

Merianne (Frey)

Minisa (Whent)

Morya (Frey)

Mya (Riverman)

Perra (Frey)

Perriane (Frey)

Rhialta (Vance)

Ryella (Frey)

Sabitha (Vypren)

Sallei (Paege)

Sarra (Frey)

Sarya (Whent)

Serra (Frey)

Shella (Whent)

Shiera (Blackwood)

Shirei (Frey)

Sylwa (Paege)

Tysane (Frey)

Tyta (Frey)

Walda (Frey)

Wynafrei (Whent)

Zhoe (Blanetree)

Zia (Frey)

Male

Addam (Frey)

Aegor (Riverman)

Aegon (Frey)

Aegor (Riverman)

Aemon (Riverman)

Aenys (Frey)

Alesander (Frey)

Alton (Butterwell)

Alyn (Blackwood, Frey, Haigh, Terrick)

Ambrose (Butterwell)

Amos (Bracken)

Andrey (Charlton)

Androw (Frey)

Armistead (Vance)

Arwood (Frey)

Axel (Tully)

Benedict (Justman)

Benfred (Frey)

Benjicot (Blackwood)

Bennifer (Blackwood)

Bernarr (Justman)

Bradamar (Frey)

Bryan (Frey)

Brynden (Blackwood, Tully)

Bywin (Strong)

Clarence (Charlton)

Clement (Piper)

Cleos (Frey)

Colmar (Frey)

Dafyn (Vance)

Damon (Darry, Paege, Teague, Vypren)

Danwell (Frey)

Darnold (Darry)

Davos (Deddings)

Denys (Mallister, Strong)

Deremond (Darry)

Derrick (Darry)

Desmond (Darry, Grell, Mallister)

Dickon (Frey)

Donnel (Haigh)

Duncan (Strong)

Edmund (Blackwood)

Edmure (Frey, Tully)

Edmyn (Tully)

Edwyn (Frey)

Ellery (Vance)

Elmar (Frey)

Elmo (Tully)

Elston (Tully)

Emmon (Frey)

Florian (Mooton)

Franklyn (Frey)

Gargon (Qoherys)

Garibald (Grey)

Garrett (Paege)

Garse (Goodbrook)

Geremy (Frey)

Grover (Tully)

Guy (Lothston)

Halmon (Paege)

Harbert (Paege)

Harry (Riverman)

Harwin (Strong)

Harys (Haigh)

Hollis (Teague)

Horas (Harroway)

Hosteen (Frey)

Hoster (Blackwood, Frey, Tully)

Hugo (Vance)

Humfrey (Bracken, Teague)

Jaime (Frey)

Jammos (Frey)

Jared (Frey)

Jason (Mallister)

Jeffory (Mallister)

John (Mudd)

Jon (Charlton, Lothston, Lychester, Mooton, Piper, Vance)

Jonah (Mooton)

Jonos (Bracken, Frey)

Jonothor (Darry)

Jorah (Mallister)

Jordan (Towers)

Joseth (Mallister, Smallwood)

Karyl (Vance)

Kermit (Tully)

Kirth (Vance)

Larys (Strong)

Leslyn (Haigh)

Lewys (Piper)

Lorimas (Mudd)

Lothar (Bracken, Frey)

Lucamore (Strong)

Lucas (Blackwood, Harroway, Lothston, Nayland, Roote)

Luceon (Frey)

Lucias (Vypren)

Lucifer (Justman)

Lyle (Riverman)

Lyman (Darry)

Lymond (Fisher, Goodbrook, Lychester, Mallister)

Lyonel (Frey, Strong)

Maegor (Towers)

Malwyn (Frey)

Manfred (Lothston)

Manfryd (Lothston)

Martyn (Riverman)

Marq (Mudd, Piper)

Medgar (Tully)

Melwys (Frey)

Merrett (Frey)

Myles (Mooton, Smallwood)

Norbert (Vance)

Olyver (Bracken)

Oscar (Tully)

Osmund (Frey, Strong)

Oswald (Wode)

Oswell (Whent)

Patrek (Mallister, Vance)

Perwyn (Frey)

Petyr (Frey, Mallister, Piper)

Prentys (Tully)

Quenton (Qoherys)

Quincy (Cox)

Quentyn (Blackwood)

Raylon (Bracken)

Raymond (Nayland)

Raymun (Darry)

Rhaegar (Frey)

Richard (Roote)

Robb (Riverman)

Robert (Blackwood, Frey, Paege, Strong, Vance)

Robin (Ryger)

Roderick (Blackwood)

Roger (Blackwood)

Roland (Blackwood, Darry)

Ronald (Vance)

Ronel (Riverman)

Ronnel (Vance)

Royce (Blackwood)

Ryger (Riverman)

Ryman (Frey)

Samwell (Blackwood)

Simon (Strong)

Stanton (Piper)

Steffon (Frey)

Stevron (Frey)

Symond (Frey)

Theo (Charlton, Frey, Teague)

Theomar (Smallwood)

Thoren (Smallwood)

Tion (Frey)

Torrence (Teague)

Tristan (Mudd, Ryger, Vance)

Tristifer (Mudd, Wayn)

Tommen (Tully)

Tytos (Blackwood, Frey)

Tywin (Frey)

Utherydes (Wayn)

Vorian (Vypren)

Walder (Frey, Goodbrook, Haigh, Vance)

Walter (Whent)

Walton (Frey, Towers)

Waltyr (Frey)

Walys (Mooton)

Wendel (Frey)

Willamen (Frey)

William (Mooton)

Willem (Darry, Frey)

Willis (Wode)

Zachery (Frey)

[cynicalclassicist]

True. Maybe it's just the usual rumours.

Do you think that it's possible that Alys Rivers could have been one of Lucamore Strong's bastards?

Not really, no. Even the youngest of Lucamore’s extramarital (or quasi-extramarital) children were born by 73 AC, making those children nearly or over 60 by the time of the Dance (and those children were sent to Storm’s End in any event; those sent to the care of Lord Bywin Strong would have been even older, if they lived that long). While it’s certainly true that Mushroom suggests Alys “was much older” and “was wet nurse to both boys [i.e. Harwin and Larys Strong], perhaps even to their father a generation earlier”, I don’t see any actual evidence that Alys was so much older than she appeared - no obvious jewelry empowering a glamour (as Melisandre and Bloodraven both use), no reference to long years lived, etc. Indeed, the fact that Alys does appear to have had a child, at least ostensibly by Aemond, undermines for me the idea that Alys was, certainly by Westerosi standards, an old woman by the time of the Dance.

Personally, I think it makes more sense that Alys was roughly 40 or so at the outbreak of the Dance. Gyldayn rather confidently reports that “Alys Rivers was at least forty years of age during the Dance of the Dragons, that much is known”, and both Munkun and Eustace - sources which differ quite a bit in other reports on Dance-era history - agree that Lyonel Strong was her father. Perhaps there is a loose parallel here with Visenya - another woman said to “[dabble] in dark sorceries”, who was also about 40 when Maegor was born, and perhaps used sorcery to conceive the strong son she had predicted with such conviction she was carrying prior to his birth.

(Obviously, I’m not talking about That Other Show and please don’t use this post to do so.)

[vesper-the-solitaire]

Random thoughts about ASOIAF that I'm obsessed with at the moment (1/4):

An interesting thing about Fire & Blood (so Book! Canon, NOT HotD!Canon) is that Jace, Luke, and Joffrey are described as "ordinary," but NO ONE ever says that they actually resemble Harwin Strong or the Strongs in general, other than being strapping, physically healthy boys. No mention of specific similarities. The only Strong whose hair color is described is Lucamore Strong, who is blond, and we know that the Houses of Westeros tend to maintain stable physical characteristics such as eye and hair color. So I wonder if Harwin Strong was more of a scapegoat: maybe he wasn't the father, but as Rhaenyra's security guard he was an easy and credible candidate to point the finger at.

Another interesting thing is the parallel + inversion with Cersei: Ned, based on the children's appearance, accuses Jaime because as his brother, even before being a kingsguard, he can only stay with her for long periods. On the contrary, since Rhaenyra's last name is "Targaryen", to accuse her of adultery based on the children's appearance you have to find someone who can spend time with her even if they are NOT a close relative. I wonder: if they had been blond with purple eyes, would they have accused her of adultery with Daemon? Or maybe with Corlys?

[crimsonbastard]

Lucamore Strong of the Kingsguard got gelded and exiled by King Jahaereys for breaking his vows by having three secret wives and siring illegitimate children with them.

His indirect decendant, Harwin Strong who was the Commander of the City Watch followed suite for committing high treason with Princess Rhaenyra by siring bastards with her, getting exiled for it by his own father and inadvertently getting immolated in the process in Harrenhal.

Good thing Criston noped the fuck out when Rhaenyra asked him to be her side piece.

[lilacstarryskies]

im gonna say smth controversial…..

i do NOT like harwin strong

the vibes r off okay 😭

like i get he smirked at rhaenyra at aegon’s nameday, but like he shouldn’t have been such a dumbass relying on the goodwill of his father as hand and rhaenyra’s dad being the king

otherwise him AND the kids wouldve been reprimanded like crazy and to live harsh lives!!

rhaenyra was 18 while the traumatised husband she had planned to do her duty with was too grief stricken with the murder of his lover, and somehow during that time she bonded with harwin as her saviour at the wedding which leads to them rapidly becoming romantic partners and having jace

harwin should’ve known better to even entertain the notion that he could have a romantic relationship with rhaenyra!

and instead he allowed it…. and jace was born

and for that i can be partly okay with it since maybe they did somehow quickly fall into genuine love and want a kid, hoping it would have valyrian features…..

but risking it up all the way to THREE times is acc diabolical

and like when it comes to daemyra stans just shifting harwin onto laena….

it does kinda seem like a sweet ship but also a way to just sidestep laena out of the way when she, especially book-wise, is SO intergral to daemyra and is so viscerally ignored by both the show and fandom!!

laena deserves better than this! id take daemyra/laena anyday over laewin and im saying this as somebody who isnt a daemyra shipper 😭😭

also like harwin contributed like 10 bajillion grey hairs to poor lyonel with all this so i dont feel sympathy for him 💀

imagine being lyonel! like ur family is a fairly new house with a haunted castle and a recent stain on your name regarding bastardry…. and your son decides to go even one step further than lucamore strong ever did by getting with not a bunch of peasants but the mf HEIRESS to the throne!!

[warsofasoiaf]

Wanted to submit a rather longer ask if you don’t mind, but regarding trial by combat, what do you suppose are the limits on its use?  There seem to be an awful lot of instances where the defendants faced a hopeless situation where the slim hope of trial by combat would be better than nothing, like  Lucamore Strong or Vaemond Velaryon, or the Councilors executed when Rhaenyra took Kings Landing, or some of the defendants in the Hour of the Wolf? Why doesn’t anyone seem to be concerned that Gregor will demand a trial by combat when Ned orders his arrest? Why not Amroy Lorch or Rickard Karstark, or the various adherents of Stannis captured on the Blackwater, who refuse to bend the knee unto death?  I’d think it would highlight/foreshadow the brutality of the Bolton-Frey alliance to refuse Amory, and be right of the alley of Karstark, who is clearly lashing out to cause maximum pain to Robb. Why not see if he can take out a loyal warrior for the Stark cause, to boot, while mocking Robb as a boy who sends others to die in his place, like his own sons? 

At first I thought it might be restricted to cases where both sides had irreconcilable stories, as with Tyrion in the Eyrie, and Sandor, but the facts were hardly in dispute with Rickard Stark, rather it was about the rights of the accused and privileges of royalty, and everyone seems to be taking the prosecution’s case as ironclad in Tyrion’s second trial. Also, frankly, that looks like a bit of a cop-out to demand a trial by combat when the judicial proceeding is going against you, like changing your plea after the jury gives its verdict or appealing for a new trial with a lawyer, after failing in your attempt to represent yourself. 

Another reason I bring this up, is that speculation about alternate scenarios seems to be a big thing in the fandom, and I notice a lot of the counterfactuals involving the exposure of the twincest or various related offenses occurring in aGoT, founder on the assumption that Jaime would simply kill Ned, Robert, Stannis or whomever in a trial by combat, and the only real hope anyone has of successfully punishing the Lannisters for any of their crimes relies on a sexagenarian Barristan defeating a man half his age. 

I know a major theme of the series is how the aristocratic power structure in general, and trial by combat in particular is very much unjust, but this seems a bit more than broken. I can’t imagine that it suits the interests of those in power to have their own judicial proceedings overthrown so easily. 

An excellent series of questions. Indeed, there are a lot of problems with trial by combat, and Martin’s emphasis on the fundamentally flawed conceptions of medieval feudalism re: it’s manifest , baked-in unfairness. I think at some points, the people who refuse to call for a trial by combat are probably expecting that if they do call one they are guaranteed death, and others are simply wishing to die anyway ala Larys Strong. 

Other times, especially among people facing judgment from Joffrey, expect that they’ll probably be killed either way and prefer to assert their right to the headsman rather that call for a trial by combat and get slowly pulled apart for the king’s entertainment. Or, for other dishonorable kings, that their trial is granted but they rig it in their favor.

In theory, I think, the trial by combat is technically unrestricted, if you are a knight. If you’re not a knight but a member of the aristocracy, there might be limitations in cases of treason or other high crimes. That might even be wrapped up in the strictures of knighthood - being a warrior anointed by the oils and making your vows to the Seven is what grants you the status to allow the Seven to judge you via ordeal of combat. It does seem like a cop-out, but your social status allowing you privileges and the ability to have a Get Out of Jail Free Card is part of the core of the medieval legal system. 

Given that the power and leeway of lords and (especially) kings in the medieval legal system makes the issue far more personalistic, I could see that a king who knows the subject is guilty sees ways around getting away with a trial by combat - like starving the prisoner for two days before the combat to ensure no one abuses the system. I could see creative methods used to interpret denying a trial by combat - such as by Gregor hiding his heraldry and attacking masquerading as a brigand meant that he forfeited the rights of a knight by hiding himself. 

And of course, the Doylist explanation: some people don’t demand trials by combat because GRRM is under a word count.

Thanks for these excellent questions/observations, Cannoli.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[jaehaeryshater]

my commission from the ASOIAF for Palestine campaign. It’s of Princess Daella daughter of Maekar and Duncan the Tall. The artist working on this is @ainzee_the_real on yet, although the amazing fundraising project was worked on by around 25 artists and thought up by (as far i know) @wodania

Despite the relationship not even being confirmed (seems the likeliest explanation for Brienne being descended from both a Targaryen and Duncan the Tall is that Duncan had a child by either Rhae or Daella, but which of the girls it was has not yet been indicated), Duncan and Daella is my one of my favorite relationships in the ASOIAF universe to think of headcanons/possibilities for. What makes the idea so interesting to me is that as opposed to Cersei or Rhaenyra, as far as we know, Daella (or Rhae, but for here on I’ll say Daella as that’s who I headcanon as being the one he had an affair with) was able to conceal that she had a baby a man that wasn’t her husband. Their paternity was never revealed, and the Tarth line at the time of AGOT is no longer Tarth biologically at all, but nobody knows (yes, I’ve considered they still have Tarth blood from Selwyn or Brienne’s mother). This seems like the exact thing that a fan of fairy tales or romances, such as Sansa, would cling to, but the story is absent. ASOIAF and Fire and Blood have a lack of stereotypical Knight and Lady/Princess romances, and that is almost certainly purposeful. Lucamore Strong was a Kingsguard, forbade to marry, and had three families simultaneously who did not know of each other. Jaime rose to the ranks of the Kingsguard as a teenager and was bedding a highborn lady, a Queen in fact, the entire time, but that Queen happened to be his sister. Loras Tyrell is depicted as a steroypical knight on the surface, one that Sansa is quick to swoon over, but it turns out that he is gay and in love with claimant to the Iron Throne Renly Baratheon. Brienne has not formally been named a knight, but her love for Jaime Lannister and overall arc is reminiscent of the knights in the stories, she is kind and honorable, as well as pure of heart. Even the most mentioned romance between a Knight and Princess/Queen, Aemon Targaryen and Naerys Targaryen, is between a brother and sister, in which Naerys possibly does not even return her brother’s feelings and Aemon fails to ever save her from her abusive marriage, but instead stands by and protects her abuser. The most wholesome stories, Bonifer Hasty and Rhaella as well as Garlan and Leonette are either a love never realized for the former, lost in favor of an abusive marriage, or between a knight in name but a Lord in practice and his wife of a similar standing. Duncan the Tall, as far as we’ve been told, does not have the personality flaws of Lucamore, Jaime, or Aemon, is lowborn unlike everyone else on this list, and his relationship with a Princess actually manifested itself in the Tarth line. Despite it not being known to any of the POV characters in the series, this story is one of the most clean cut and potentially wholesome knight-lady love stories in the series. I absolutely cannot wait to hear it, because it seems like it could be a breath of fresh air in any otherwise dark and heavy series.

Forgive me for the tangent, now I’ll get to the depiction. Daella was born in 199 AC, and Duncan in as early as 191 AC. Maekar became King in 221, making Daella 22. Given GRRM’s track record for marrying highborn ladies, particularly Targaryens, off young, my headcanon is that by the time her father became King, she was already married to Lord Tarth. It is unknown when Duncan became a Kingsguard, but we do know that he was in Tarth at some point, as Brienne has seen his shield in her youth, and therefore i hypothesize that he went to Tarth with Daella as either a personal shield hired by Maekar or as a Kingsguard. My personal headcanon is that Daella and Duncan began their relationship before her marriage and she was married to Lord Tarth to conceal this, but that’s pure conjecture. In this depiction, Daella is still at Summerhall and Duncan still a knight without titles or status. I believe his kind and romantic nature is accurately shown in this art, trying to win the favor of a Princess with a mere rose. They know they can never marry, but the courtship continues all the same. I don’t know, i just think it’s sweet ^_^

Anyway, this has been posted before by the campaign, but I thought I’d add my two cents as the person who requested. This group has done an amazing thing, all in the name of a very important cause. The amount of work they’ve put in with no benefit to them is commendable.

[allyriadayne]

just so interesting how the strongs are linked to unorthodox sexual/marital practices. lucamore had three wives and a lot of bastards, lyonel also had at least three wives and a bastard, harwin had three bastards, larys torments alicent sexually, alys had a bastard too.

lyonel is the only one who is doing it privately by marrying and so is larys in a way. he's not being thought of as a man something something alicent doesn't fear he will rape her as a real man would something something his "twisted nature" matching his punishment.

harwin and lucamore are even more alike for how public and transgressive their "crimes" are. both having bastard and being separated from them indirectly because of a brother: gyles morrigen and larys! I tend to think lucamore's fate might've been harwin's in another life too and it's sort of funny that one family was taken to storm's end where Luke died and another to driftmark, to sea, where Jace died. now what's the joffrey connection.....

and alys, well, she's got the better end. sort of. only by giving up and not resisting in a way to propriety nor to "hide" or make proper her practices, to give it a name. she's got the bastard, she's got the castle, and yet she was a captive and a sexual prisoner to a man she ultimately supported and led to his death.

[duxbelisarius]

Back to the Dance Part Six: Larys Strong

Thanks for reading so far; if this is your first time, here's the Master post for the rest of the installments!

The aim of the previous installments was to lay the foundations for discussing the Dance itself, with as little digression as possible; we've covered the political institutions of the Seven Kingdoms, the affect of the environment and logistics, and the nature of warfare in the setting. It's only natural that we should cover the shadowy world of spies and covert operations, as discussing the Dance without it would be like covering the Second World War without Ultra and the Double-Cross System, or the Cold War without Venona and the Cambridge Five. F&B presents us with two 'spymasters' in Mysaria and Larys Strong, but I'm focusing on the latter for important reasons: Between his membership in Viserys' government and Small Council prior to the Dance, being a founding member of the Green Council, his known actions which influenced the outcome of the Dance, and the strong evidence (no pun intended) that he assisted the Blacks, Larys was better placed than even Mysaria to shape the events of the Dance.

This part of the series will be as much a theory post as it is an analysis; I recommend checking out a somewhat annoyed llama on Youtube, in particular his videos What was Larys up to? (Part One) and (Two). I'll be referencing them throughout my essay and particularly Part 2, as he does an excellent job covering the main events that Larys influenced and making the case for his taking part in others. His ASOIAF content is informative and entertaining, and I recommend giving him a sub; I'll be giving my own thoughts when it comes to areas where I disagree with his theories, and for those areas he doesn't cover. Larys' fingerprints are upon many of the important events of the Dance, but the way the Dance is written undermines the feasibility and necessity of his involvement. That being said, it's time we donned our tinfoil hats, queued up Midge Ure's cover of David Bowie, and 'spoke of was and when' with 'the Man who Sold the World.'

i. Profiling 'The Clubfoot'

When it comes to Larys himself, we have a fair amount of information to go of off: We don't know his age or his mother's identity, but we do know he had three siblings, Harwin Strong and two unnamed sisters, with a possible half sibling in Alys Rivers; his father, Lyonel Strong, had three unidentified wives, and Larys and his siblings accompanied Lyonel to court when he became Master of Laws in 105 AC; Larys' sisters became handmaids to Rhaenyra, Harwin became a captain in the Goldcloaks, and Larys joined the royal confessors, i.e. the royal torturers; Lyonel became Hand of the King in 109 AC, Harwin was a suitor to Rhaenyra in 112 AC and became her sworn shield and father to her first three children, Harwin's sisters accompanied him to Dragonstone in 113 AC as part of Rhaenyra's household, while Larys became Lord Confessor and Master of Whisperers by 129 AC (and of course, Lord of Harrenhal in 120 AC).

This means that Larys spent the better part of his life at King's Landing in royal service, surrounded by members of his immediate family who were well-placed in the circles of power there. Control of Harrenhal already gave the Strongs the foremost land holdings in the Riverlands, while past members of the house had held high office before: Osmund Strong was Hand of the King to Aegon the Conqueror and oversaw the construction of King's Landing's walls between 20 and 26 AC, while the infamous Ser Lucamore Strong, "the Lusty," served on the Kingsguard under Jaehaerys. House Strong had it's own seat and lands prior to Jaehaerys appointing Bywin Strong as Lord of Harrenhal in 73 AC, so we can safely assume that Lyonel's holdings and incomes were quite substantial, while his three marriages indicate House Strong's support and influence was highly sought after. This means that Larys stood to and did inherit considerable power and influence within the Riverlands, in addition to the connections his family would have cultivated in King's Landing. There can be little doubt that his job and experience torturing prisoners made Larys privy to a wide variety of information and the skills to obtain it, especially regarding the capital itself and the surrounding region.

Having a brother that was a captain in the Goldcloaks and later a paramour to the heir apparent would undoubtedly have helped Larys obtain further 'intel,' as would his brother and sister's presence on Dragonstone, while his father's seat and later his own on the Small Council would make him privy to even more valuable information. HOTD made Larys the guilty party for his father and brother's deaths in 120 AC, and if this is true for the books as well, then Harwin's removal from Rhaenyra's household and Lyonel's declining position at court could explain their deaths. If neither was going to be well placed to act as sources for Larys and he stood to gain more by inheriting Harrenhal after their deaths, then they may well have 'outlived their usefulness' from Larys' perspective. In light of how Larys smuggled Aegon from the capital during Rhaenyra's attack, we can also safely assume that he was well acquainted with the royal dungeons and by extension the tunnels of Maegor the Cruel. We don't know when Larys became Lord Confessor and Master of Whisperers, but we can be certain that Larys accumulated considerable knowledge of his political environment by that time, and possessed networks inside and out of King's Landing which served him well during the Dance.

ii. Rats in the Walls

Although Larys is one of the original members of the Green Council, I agree with Llama that the evidence points towards him assisting the Blacks; in particular, Gyldan's comment prior to Blood and Cheese almost certainly refers to Larys Strong:

"unbeknownst to King Aegon, the Hand or the Queen Dowager, he [Daemon] had allies at court as well, even on the Green Council." F&B, 422-424.

I have my own thoughts regarding where he may have assisted the Blacks early on, particularly the taking of Harrenhal and Blood and Cheese. Llama suggests that Larys was responsible for Harrenhal's fall, pointing to Daemon's comment about the Black's 'friends in the Riverlands' and his seemingly out-of-character support for Rhaenyra's more conservative strategy when the Black Council first convenes. There are practical reasons why Larys' involvement in Harrenhal's surrender is unlikely, but while Llama rightly notes that Daemon isn't exactly a brilliant strategic mind, I don't think this requires us to invoke Larys. Indeed, Daemon's actions at the council and his support for Blood and Cheese can both be easily explained when we consider his character. While he's undoubtedly a warrior and a fighter, maybe even a decent tactician, none of these rule out having a sense of self-preservation; as I noted in Part Five, the odds of success for an immediate dragon attack on King's Landing were not great, so it's natural he would avoid a fight he wasn't guaranteed to win (see his avoiding battle with Aemond until given no other choice). It's not like Daemon really does anything once he takes Harrenhal: aside from subduing Aegon's few supporters, and even then he lets the Blackwoods do the actual fighting, Daemon does nothing to threaten the Greens until he leaves to join the attack on King's Landing.

Disregarding Daemon, we're told by F&B that Harrenhal was lightly garrisoned due to Larys being at court, which implies that most of his retainers were with him rather than Ser Simon. Unless Larys knew in advance that Viserys was going to die and when, there's no way he could have removed the bulk of his men from Harrenhal between then and Daemon's arrival without it being noticed. Daemon needed Harrenhal as intact as was possible for that ruin if he wanted to use it as a base, and Caraxes isn't in the business of melting castles given that he's only half the size of Vhagar; while Ser Simon may have feared meeting the fate of Black Harren, a larger garrison would have posed a risk to Daemon and could have holed-up and waited him out, causing a severe setback for the Blacks. Daemon needed the castle while it's wealth was a welcome bonus, so the garrison simply vanishes: considering the vanishing acts which the Redwyne and Hightower fleets also pull in this story, the fall of Harrenhal and its garrison's disappearance are easily explained by the fact the plot needed these things to happen, and so they did.

Considering Daemon's character also has implications for Blood and Cheese and the role Larys may have played, since Daemon not being a great strategic mind almost singlehandedly explains why he would support such a controversial plan. When Rhaenyra argues against Celtigar's proposal for an immediate attack, she cites her own poor health after miscarrying Visenya while Luke's death only makes things worse. With Rhaenyra being his wife, niece, and mother of his two sons, and Luke his stepson, Daemon has all the reason in the world to seek revenge and weaken the Greens. Blood and Cheese's threat to murder Helaena and her children if she didn't choose a son make complete sense from this perspective: if she chooses, Aegon will lose an heir while Helaena's trauma would presumably sideline her like Rhaenyra was, while her refusal would mean the deaths of all of Aegon's heirs and the guaranteed loss of a dragonrider for the Greens, who are in no position to recruit dragonseeds. If it allows the Greens to rally for war, Luke's death, Harrenhal's fall, and the Velaryon Blockade mean that things were already heading in that direction, so it's doubtful Daemon really cared. The plan is cruel, simple, and cunning, all adjectives that fit Daemon's character to a 'T.'

When it comes to Larys' potential role in Blood and Cheese, Llama points out that it doesn't really make sense for a rat-catcher to have such knowledge of Maegor's tunnels and have them remain secret. Since other rat-catchers would be expected to possess similar knowledge or so the argument goes, this suggests that Larys was involved in plotting the attack or may even have been Cheese himself under some sort of glamor spell or disguise. The tunnels existence at least appears to be an open secret from the time of Maegor, while the execution of all the rat-catchers and the abolition of their posts goes someway to explain how any knowledge they accrued could eventually be lost. Even then, there's still no reason for us to assume the tunnels would have been better known and used for nefarious purposes due to Cheese's purported knowledge; while Cheese may have known the Red Keep 'like the back of his cock' and knew the tunnels as well as the rats he caught, it's made clear that even he knew of no way in or out of Maegor's holdfast, which ruled out any raids within. Considering the description we have of the tunnels in the Tower of the Hand from Cersei III of AFFC, it makes sense that even Cheese would have limits to his knowledge:

Some of the secret crawlways had turned out to be so small that Jaime had needed pages and stableboys to explore them. A passage to the black cells had been found, and a stone well that seemed to have no bottom. ... One boy had gotten stuck in a narrow passage and had to be pulled out by his feet, shrieking. Another fell down a shaft and broke his legs. And two guardsmen vanished exploring a side tunnel. Some of the other guards swore they could hear them calling faintly through the stone, but when Jaime's men tore down the wall they found only earth and rubble on the far side.

Given the irregularity of the tunnels and their labyrinthine nature, it makes sense that not everyone familiar with them would know every nook and cranny.

A key factor in understanding Blood and Cheese and where I think Larys played his part, is the fact that Aegon's family had only just moved into Maegor's Holdfast when the plot took place; this means the raid itself cannot have taken place too long after Luke's death became known and Aegon and Rhaenyra were crowned, suggesting the planning stage was short. The raid had to be at night for ease of infiltration and this made Helaena and her children the only real targets, due to their visiting Alicent in the Tower of the Hand for bedtime stories following King Viserys' death. It would have taken someone on the inside like Larys to provide this information on the Red Keep in such a short window of time, and this all but guarantees that Larys led Mysaria to Cheese, directly or indirectly, especially since Cheese was almost certainly a criminal and would have been on Larys' radar. Even still, it can't be a coincidence that Blood and Cheese targeted Helaena and her children in light of Rhaenyra's condition and Luke's death; combined with the limited time frame, this means that Daemon and Mysaria would have already chosen them as their targets, or they required little convincing from Larys.

To conclude, I believe Larys was involved in Blood and Cheese as he likely passed intel to Daemon and Mysaria, and was most likely responsible for recruiting Cheese. Nonetheless, Larys' being involved in Blood and Cheese does not mean that it was some kind of 'false flag' or that Larys took things further than originally intended to make the Blacks look bad, and Llama never suggests this to be clear. Luke and Jaehaerys' deaths serve to rally the supporters of both sides but they don't appear to lose them supporters either. Daemon isn't even labeled a kinslayer despite ordering the death of Prince Jaehaerys; lest we forget, Septon Eustace persuaded Viserys not to execute Daemon after his affair with the young Rhaenyra, as Viserys would be a kinslayer for merely ordering the execution. As for whether or not Larys himself was Cheese owing to the rat-catcher never being found, I think Cersei III of AFFC gives us our answer:

They had found a chamber full of skulls and yellowed bones, and four sacks of tarnished silver coins from the reign of the first King Viserys. They had found a thousand rats as well . . . but neither Tyrion nor Varys had been amongst them, and Jaime had finally insisted on putting an end to the search.

As I noted in Part Five, work began in earnest on TWOIAF the year after AFFC was published, while Feast itself was published just over 5 years after ASOS. The Dance as an event and many episodes and characters within it have been referenced as far back as AGOT: Sansa mentions the Dance in the context of the Cargyll twins, and Bran name drops Cregan Stark; Otto Hightower is mentioned to Davos in ACOK, and Stannis gives Davos his take on Rhaenyra, while AFFC gives us more information on the causes of the Dance as well as two different perspectives on Ser Criston Cole. AFFC also tells us that it was Viserys' death which kicked off the Dance and that he was Rhaenyra and Aegon II's father, so the fact the silver coins are all said to be from his reign and were found in a tunnel in the Tower of the Hand alongside "a thousand rats" as mentioned in the very next sentence, tells me that George had ideas on Blood and Cheese at least as far back as Feast. Four bags of silver coins is one each for Helaena and her children, and we know that Blood was caught leaving the city with Jaehaerys' head in order to collect his reward at Harrenhal. It appears that Cheese remained in the last place he was seen alive to collect his own reward, but was dispatched to ensure that Larys' involvement remained secret.

When it comes to Larys' role in post-Blood and Cheese, while we are meant to see him influencing events on either side, in many cases it's clear that his presence was unnecessary for events to play out as they do. A perfect early example of this is the list he presents to Aegon and the Green Council of the lords who attended Rhaenyra's coronation and that sit on her council. We might assume that this was obtained from spies in his service, but while the information is useful, it's influence on the Rook's Rest campaign that follows is unnecessary. F&B tells us that there were lords absent from Aegon's coronation, that ravens were sent out announcing Aegon's coronation and demanding fealty, and that Otto subsequently sends out riders to the houses near at hand requesting their support. Based on those who responded positively, as opposed to negatively or not at all, it should have been simple to determine targets for Cole's campaign without any input from Larys. Aemond's march on Harrenhal is a similar instance: while I agree with Llama that Larys is the likely culprit for tipping off Daemon, the fact still remains that it took almost a fortnight for Aemond to raise his troops and more than a fortnight to reach Harrenhal, meaning almost a month passed between Aemond announcing his strategy and carrying it out. Even without Larys, Mysaria and Daemon's allies at court should have been able to tip him off as to Aemond's preparations; even if avoiding Aemond's advance proved to be a close run thing, it still would not require Larys' involvement to ensure it. That being said, I do agree with Llama that Larys was probably also involved in helping the Blacks take King's Landing, between Orwyle's capture and the guards of 6 of the 7 city gates surrendering to Rhaenyra's allies.

iii. Plots within plots

One subject that Llama doesn't cover and which seems not to have attracted much attention in the fandom, is the role Larys may have played in the events of the First Battle of Tumbleton. Although his involvement in only speculated at by F&B, I believe the evidence overwhelming suggests that Larys was involved, and when juxtaposed with his actions during the riots in King's Landing, I believe we can discern the elements of a grand plan that he concocted. Gyldan speculates that Ulf and Hugh may have been induced to turn coat by Larys "or one of his agents, though this remains unproven and unproveable," but they were not the only ones involved in the betrayal of Tumbleton: Lord Owain Bourney and Ser Roger Corne were also involved as "secret supporters of King Aegon II." There can be no doubt that these four coordinated their efforts, as Corne and Bourney only opened the gates of Tumbleton and it's keep after the Betrayers commenced their attack. Given the bedlam that would and did ensue following this betrayal, Corne and Bourney would need to be standing by to act, as indeed they were.

We know that Ulf and Hugh were sent to Tumbleton on the same date that Daemon and Nettles were dispatched to the Riverlands, Maiden Day 130 AC; since some time passes while Daemon and Nettles try to hunt Aemond, it's extremely unlikely that Tumbleton was sacked immediately after the Betrayers arrived. As I said in Part Two, the First Battle of Tumbleton likely took place on April 28th 130 AC, meaning that Maiden Day fell sometime between then and Aemond's arrival at Harrenhal on March 2nd; we have no exact date for Maiden Day, but my guess is it's based off the historical Lady Day which was marked in England and Scandinavia every March 25th. Maiden Day most likely falls on, before, or after the 25th day of the Third Moon, giving the Betrayers a month to a few weeks at least before Ormund's army arrived. Although this might be enough time for them to meet and coordinate with Bourney and Corne, the fact they crossed paths at all requires further set-up. After all, even if Bourney and Corne were secret supporters of Aegon, how could they entrust that knowledge to two dragonriders they'd never met before, and how could Ulf and Hugh risk making their treacherous intentions known to two lords they'd likewise never met?

I believe the answer lies in Larys Strong utilizing Bourney and Corne as 'handlers' for his two new 'assets,' Ulf and Hugh. We know that Bourney and Corne were both from the area of the Blackwater Rush, the river which runs primarily through the Riverlands and Crownlands. Since they joined the Riverlord army marching south from 'the Butcher's Ball,' which took place somewhere between the God's Eye and the Rush, it's possible they came from both or either regions. I find their being Rivermen more likely however, since many Crownlanders fought under Cole and Aemond and were induced to support Aegon during the Rook's Rest campaign, so it's unlikely they could be considered 'secret' supporters of Aegon II at that point, whereas support for Aegon would absolutely be kept secret in the Riverlands after Burning Mill. Their being Riverlords would also explain why they could emplace themselves close to the inner and outer gates of Tumbleton, since they would have been trusted more than if they were Crownlanders, with Gyldan listing Bourney among "men of note" from the Rush that joined the host. Bourney and Corne being Riverlords also places their lands close to the God's Eye and therefore within the sphere of influence of House Strong, which would explain how Larys could use them to bring about the fall of Tumbleton.

Given the strong likelihood that Bourney, Corne, and the Betrayers were acting in service of Larys, the question naturally arises: to what end? Certainly the fall of Tumbleton was a crisis for Rhaenyra and her government, but if we accept TWOIAF's claim that Helaena's suicide and the Battle above the God's Eye both took place on May 22nd, that still leaves well over a fortnight between Tumbleton's fall and Rhaenyra's flight from King's Landing. One thing to consider is that within two days of the Sack of Tumbleton, Owain Bourney was dead at the hands of Unwin Peake after trying to claim leadership of the Hightower army and lead it against King's Landing. Whereas Bourney was considered a notable lord, Ser Roger Corne is a mere knight like the Two Betrayers, and he isn't even a dragonrider at that; from this perspective, Larys was left with a single 'handler' for his assets, one who was unlikely to succeed at that task. When word arrives of the riots in King's Landing, Corne comes to the fore as an advocate of marching on the capital and is killed like Bourney, this time by Hugh Hammer when the knight knocks his iron crown from his brow and reminds him of his lowly status. Even more interesting, the number of Corne's followers killed and wounded in the subsequent fight, three and a dozen respectively, is eerily similar to the three retainers and a dozen servants who burned with Lyonel and Harwin Strong at Harrenhal (remember, The Rogue Prince came after The Princess and the Queen).

We can be certain that Bourney and Corne were co-conspirators of the Betrayers, and I believe it certain that all four were working for Larys Strong. Bourney and Corne met their ends at key points when the Hightower army might have moved against Rhaenyra, leaving the Betrayers free to pursue their own ambitions. We also get no sense that Bourney or Corne were interested in cooperating with Prince Daeron, unlike Peake, Roxton, and the others who made-up 'the Caltrops.' As I noted in Part 10 of the original analysis, it also makes little sense for Larys or his agents to reveal Aegon's survival to the betrayers; leaving aside their ambitious and grasping tendencies as dragonriders, revealing sensitive information to would-be turncloaks who were still in Rhaenyra's service would be extremely unwise. In light of Larys' subsequent actions in King's Landing and on Dragonstone, especially when compared to the plans of Varys and Littlefinger in the main books, the evidence points to Bourney, Corne, and the Betrayers acting purely on Larys' behalf in service of a plan which was not for the Greens benefit.

While Perkin the Flea crowned Trystane Truefyre king, his 16 year old squire and alleged bastard of Viserys I, we know from subsequent events that the Flea was an agent of Larys. While Perkin's men free Corlys Velaryon and the surviving Green Council members from the dungeons, it's not until Borros Baratheon arrives and Larys and the council negotiate with him that Trystane is disposed of and Aegon II eventually returns to King's Landing. Larys making and unmaking Trystane as king and eventually doing the same with Aegon II, is definitely in line with Varys and Littlefinger's actions as of ADWD: Varys and his ally Illyrio aim to place Young Griff on the Iron Throne, a boy who may or may not be Rhaegar's son Aegon, while Baelish has the heir to Winterfell, Sansa Stark, hidden in plain sight as his bastard and schemes to marry her to the heir to the Vale, Harrold Hardyng, with the goal of placing her on the Northern throne as his puppet. With regards to Larys' goals, I believe Varys' plans are the key to understanding them: Much like how Illyrio and possibly Varys had designs for using Daenerys' dragons and armies to seize the Iron Throne, as Illyrio reveals to Tyrion, Larys initial plan clearly involved the Betrayers and their dragons. Once Tumbleton fell, it seems the plan was to march on King's Landing with the Hightower army and end Rhaenyra's reign that way, though it's unclear if this would have involved Daeron and Ormund, the latter's death being unlikely to have been planned in advance by Larys.

The plan may well have stopped there: Hugh's actions after the Sack clearly show that he wanted a crown and Larys could well have promised him this, whether or not he was sincere. Disposing of Rhaenyra and Aegon's allies, at least those who would not accept the new order, Larys would be the most powerful man in the Seven Kingdoms by far. In light of Corne's actions after getting word of the riots, Larys' plan could also have been more akin to the original Dany/Young Griff plot, where those two would join forces and reclaim the Iron Throne. In this case, Hugh, Ulf, and the Hightower army would set the stage for an uprising spearheaded by Larys' agents and Perkin's 'gutter knights' which would place Trystane Truefyre on the throne as the alleged natural child of King Viserys I. We know Ulf was content with receiving Highgarden as his reward, while both Betrayers were murdered in ways that Larys could easily have arranged himself if they proved unamenable to Trystane's 'kingship.' Much as Dany pursuing her own path derailed any link-up with Young Griff, who likewise decides to sail for Westeros without her, from this perspective the chaos at Tumbleton would lead Larys to pursue the Trystane plot without them. Trystane and the Betrayers being a part of Larys' plotting also creates a wonderful symmetry between his actions and those of his brother Harwin. Harwin's affair with Rhaenyra leads to three Targaryen bastards being in line for the Iron Throne, while Larys' own plan centers around seizing the throne with two, possibly three, Targaryen bastards in Trystane, Hugh, and Ulf. The bastards also end up dead with an Aegon sitting the throne in their stead: Aegon III instead of Jace, Luke, and Joff, and Aegon II instead of Trystane, Hugh, and Ulf.

With the deaths of the Betrayers and Daeron during the Second Battle of Tumbleton, Trystane became merely a figurehead for keeping order in the capital while buying time for the Dragonstone plot to unfold. Factoring in the likelihood of Larys' involvement at Tumbleton allows for these seemingly disparate plots to be integrated and establishes Larys Strong as a major player in the Dance, while still allowing unforeseen events and chance to affect the outcomes: The Betrayers could be Larys' endgame by themselves, while their actions helped create the circumstances which led to the riots and Aegon's seizure of Dragonstone; Trystane could be part of the endgame along with the Betrayers, while ultimately helping to facilitate Aegon's return; and finally, Aegon's return would still leave Larys in a position of power even if these other plans failed. On the other hand, Ormund's death and Hugh and Ulf going rogue derailed any Tumbleton plans, while Addam's heroics put and end to them entirely; Helaena's suicide led to the riots and Trystane's emergence, but he also had to contend with rivals in Gaemon Palehair and The Shepherd; while Baela and Moondancer were likewise a spanner in the works of the Dragonstone plot.

iv. The Curious Case of Alys Rivers

Before we get into Larys' role in the end of the Dance and the 'Hour of the Wolf,' I want to address Alys Rivers and her possible relationship to and involvement with Larys during the Dance. It's unclear what her relationship was to Larys, as she could have been a bastard daughter of Lyonel Strong but may also have been much older and unrelated by blood; Mushroom suggests this, and it's not entirely outside the realm of possibility, depending on if Melisandre really is far older than she appears (as was suggested by GoT S6). There's definitely evidence she was a sorceress or magic-user of some kind: When Sabitha Frey retakes Harrenhal after Aemond and Cole depart, she encounters a heavily pregnant Alys who claims to be carrying Aemond's child, despite him being at Harrenhal for only a month at most. F&B is a fake history whose dialogue quotes are meant to have been recorded some time after the fact, so we can't be sure if George meant to communicate what he actually meant through Sabitha's encounter or Aemond's dialogue with Daemon, or if he's writing what people in the setting thought they said, regardless of whether or not they were present. If she truly was a a magic user, the question becomes how she used it to influence events, and whether this could indicate she was working with Larys.

F&B mentions that the charms she purportedly used to manipulate men seemed to have no effect on Daemon during his time at Harrenhal, and beyond this we have no indication that the two ever interacted. While she could have been a go-between for Larys and Daemon, Mysaria's networks and Larys' own agents (likely including Bourney and Corne) would have served just as well for passing along information, making magical contact with Larys via Alys unnecessary to the story. Alys' alleged charms could be responsible for Aemond's erratic actions at Harrenhal and his refusal to assist the Greens in any way, and yet Aemond already refuses to work with Daeron and shows himself an unreliable leader before he even sets out for Harrenhal, on account of his temperament and sudden obsession with Daemon. If Alys really had ensnared Aemond magically by Alys and was a go-between for Daemon and Larys, we'd also expect Daemon to prioritize her captivity once Aemond abandoned Harrenhal; controlling her would allow the Blacks to lure Aemond into a trap, but instead she is freed easily and Aemond remains at large.

Nonetheless, having Aemond and Daeron active in two separate theaters could have facilitated splitting up the Blacks dragons and thus contributed to Larys' schemes, but this by itself would not guarantee that Hugh and Ulf were sent to Tumbleton. It should also have been clear to Daemon by that point that Larys and/or his agents were working against him, but the only spymaster Daemon is concerned with by that time is Mysaria. If her purported magic is unnecessary for Daemon and Larys' possible cooperation or for Aemond's erratic behaviour, it could just as well be that she's not a magic user at all, or whatever she used it for was unconnected to Larys' schemes. Between Aemond's obsession with Alys and Daemon's alleged affair with Nettles, the Battle Above the God's Eye could easily be the end to a 'Duncan and Jenny'-type story where a Targaryen prince falls for a woman below his station, leading ultimately to a grim end for himself and his family. Considering the fact that the dragons are already a problem enough for the stakes of the Dance (see Part Five), I don't know that the story can even afford more magic to act as a further deus-ex-machina.

v. Death to Spies

So far we've seen Larys influencing or likely influencing events, as well as instances he may have been involved in where it was unnecessary. The end of the Dance confronts us with something far different: Larys is clearly involved in key events, but his actions are largely in service of the plot and cannot be reconciled with what we know about him or his prior actions. As I pointed out in Part 12 of the original analysis, despite Larys smuggling Aegon out of King's Landing when Rhaenyra's forces attacked and Vaemond Velaryon's sons and the 'Silent Five' being alive during the Dance, almost half a year passes between Rhaenyra's flight from the capital and Aegon's return to King's Landing. Rhaenyra's inexplicable delay at Duskendale obviously account for some of this, and if our hypothesis is true that Larys had multiple plans on the table after First Tumbleton, then some delay on Larys' part would also make sense. Even so, the fact that almost half a year is 'skipped' for seemingly no reason is significant, since we'll see at the end of our discussion of strategy in the Dance that Aegon's defeat was far from inevitable.

When it comes to the 'Hour of the Wolf,' my analysis differs markedly from Llama's in that I find its events to be completely implausible, as should be clear from Part 13 of the original analysis. The only reason events play out as they do is because Larys and Corlys openly label themselves as regicides, and allow Cregan Stark and his host to enter King's Landing (although it should be clear from Part Two of this series that Stark's host could get anywhere near the capital just by marching). Admitting to murder and regicide would actively hinder their plans, since any Greens who were loyal to Aegon would have no reason to trust them while the Blacks would already see Corlys as a turncoat and have even more reason to distrust Larys by default. Allowing Cregan to enter the city similarly makes no sense either, given the previous actions of both Larys and Cregan. When the 'Moon of the Three Kings' ends and Borros Baratheon arrives at King's Landing, Larys and the Green Council go to negotiate with him as opposed to throwing open the gates and welcoming him because he's a Green. Entry was granted to the Lads after they defeated Borros, but they were also known supporters of Rhaenyra who could be expected to support her son, Aegon III; it probably didn't hurt that Larys was a Riverlord himself and so likely had some knowledge of and experience with many of the lords and knights in the host.

Prior to Cregan's arrival, the only action he took to support Rhaenyra after pledging his swords was to send the 'Winterwolves' south, and this was out of a promise made to Jace. The only other assistance given to Rhaenyra was the Manderly troops who were sent to King's Landing prior to around Maiden Day, and even then it must be remembered that the Manderlys agreed to a marriage alliance with Rhaenyra before Jace's visit to Winterfell. Cregan was more likely to be an opportunist who could not be trusted, and if Elio Garcia's comments about 'Winter Wolf' armies in the past can be believed, treating his host as a hostile army would make more sense. I think Llama's suggestion that Cregan's defeat of Larys was meant as a mirror to Baelish's betrayal of Ned has merit, especially with Larys refusing to take the Black whereas Ned expected to do so. Nonetheless, if the intention really was to turn the honour vs real politik conflict on it's head, it doesn't succeed for the reason that Larys' death was easily avoidable. Cregan cannot seize power as he does if he can't enter the city, and he can't pursue the death penalty for Larys and Corlys if they don't openly admit their crimes. Between the Velaryon fleet's support, the Vale armies being on their way, the Lads occupying the city with the Gold Cloaks and Perkin's knights, having the ability to cover-up their crimes, and peace overtures having already been sent by raven, Larys and Corlys held all the cards. The 'Hour' of the Wolf' could not take place without serious plot contrivance turning Larys into GoT S7 Baelish and S8 Varys.

vi. Conclusion

As with the previous installments, I'll save the fix-its for when we get to strategy and can incorporate Larys' scheming into the broader war. As I've demonstrated, there can be no doubt that Larys Strong heavily influenced the Dance through events we know he was involved in (the riots, the fall of Dragonstone) and those which he almost certainly was (Blood and Cheese, First Tumbleton). While any discussion of strategy is almost obliged to account for his presence, it's also true that many events where his involvement is known or suspected rely on plot contrivances to a considerable extent: Larys could not have played a role in the fall of Harrenhal, as the event just happens and it's garrison disappears; he likely plotted the fall of Tumbleton with Bourney, Corne, and the Betrayers as his agents, but this also relied on the Blacks doing nothing to stop Daeron previously and sending the right dragonriders to the right location; while Larys' own fall is dependent entirely on contrivance to move the plot in that direction. Unfortunately a character can only be as good as the way they are written, and here the quality varies wildly as it does for much of the Dance.

There is one thing I have to announce before concluding Part Six, and that it a change of plans: Although I promised that we'd get into strategy next, I've decided to cover fiscal policy and war finance as a separate subject. Instead of covering it alongside strategy, it will receive it's own write up in Part Seven, as I've got a lot more to say on the subject than I originally anticipated. With that said, thank you once again for reading and stay tuned for 'Westerosi War Finance.'

[nulnoildrinker]

Sure, some of Old Nan's stories might be kernels of ancient folk wisdom inherited through millennia of oral traditions. But have you concidered how fun it is to lie to children?

She likely did the Lucamore Strong Limbo with Dunk, and we all know that he likes women with that extra little spark in their eyes.

[writingsofwesteros]

I'm stuck on ideas of names for Alicent, Gwayne and Eleanor's other two siblings on the rockstar au because I'm stuck with five Hightower kids from Otto and Alerie Florent 🤷🏻‍♀️.

Thus far is this: Alicent, Gwayne, Eleanor, man 2 and woman 3. Or Gwayn, Alicent - don't remember who's the oldest on the series. I kinda like the name Lucamore despite the bad connotations of that knight Lucamore Strong.

ooh love that name !!

Alicent

Gwayne

Eleanor

Lucamore (Luke & Lucas for nicknames)

Choices for the youngest girl

Celesse

Gwendys

Meya

[marwyn]

I want to know more about Alys! In the books, she is a wet nurse, but is also described in ways that lean heavily into the “seductress” archetype, though it’s worth considering how much of that is shaped by biased and by a misogynistic historical lens. We don’t really know who she was—we only know how others chose to describe her. In the show, she’s introduced as a skilled healer, referred to as “the best healer, Alys Rivers,” and is trusted enough to tend Grover Tully. That depiction may give her a position of medical authority in the Riverlands and a subtle presence within House Strong, even though she remains a bastard. Healing and scholarly knowledge are typically monopolized by Citadel-trained men; the fact that she is valued above a maester speaks volumes about her perceived competence. There’s also a lot of ambiguity about her lineage. Is she connected to Lyonel or Simon? Is she a daughter, sister, or aunt?. Also, the recurring "three" patterns: Lyonel and his three death wives, Lucamore and his three secret marriages, Harwin and his three sons, and the Three Forks of the Trident. Such an interesting House!

Yes! It’s hard to divine the exact truth about book!Alys since witchcraft/dark magic accusations can be misogynistic calumnies (see: Rohanne Webber), but the fact that she guided Aemond to Daemon for their final showdown indicates to me that she at least possessed the ability to locate Daemon by magical means, either by scrying (as Aemond suggests) or through the weirwood network (since Daemon went before the Harrenhal weirwood every night during the two weeks preceding their encounter; this might also indicate that he knew she could see him if he were to do that)

Daemon Targaryen walked the cavernous halls of Harren’s seat alone, with no companion but his dragon. Each night at dusk he slashed the heart tree in the godswood to mark the passing of another day. Thirteen marks can be seen upon that weirwood still; old wounds, deep and dark, yet the lords who have ruled Harrenhal since Daemon’s day say they bleed afresh every spring. On the fourteenth day of the prince’s vigil, a shadow swept over the castle, blacker than any passing cloud. All the birds in the godswood took to the air in fright, and a hot wind whipped the fallen leaves across the yard. Vhagar had come at last, and on her back rode the one-eyed Prince Aemond Targaryen, clad in nightblack armor chased with gold. [...] “Who told you where to find me?” “My lady,” Aemond answered. “She saw you in a storm cloud, in a mountain pool at dusk, in the fire we lit to cook our suppers. She sees much and more, my Alys. You were a fool to come alone.”

Of course, if she was able to see the future as well, it’s quite likely that she knowingly sent Aemond to his death, in a reversal of the relationship between Euron Greyjoy and Falia Flowers.

Simon’s high praise for Alys’s skills as a healer in the show stood out to me too as I had previously thought their relationship might be somewhat strained. She seemingly isn’t allowed to eat dinner with the trueborn Strongs and the look he gives her in this scene read as wary or maybe even a bit fearful to me

On that note, it seems pretty certain she purposefully scared away the last maester they had at Harrenhal

I’m also curious about her lineage and the show’s treatment of it; I was inclined to accept Munkun’s and Eustace’s assertions that she’s Lyonel’s natural daughter, but since the actress said in an interview that Alys is something like 400 years old it might be that the show is going in a different direction

Who was this woman? A serving wench who dabbled in potions and spells, says Munkun. A woods witch, claims Septon Eustace. A malign enchantress who bathed in the blood of virgins to preserve her youth, Mushroom would have us believe. Her name suggests bastard birth...but we know little of her father, and less of her mother. Munkun and Eustace tell us she was sired by Lord Lyonel Strong in his callow youth, making her a natural half-sister to his sons Harwin (Breakbones) and Larys (the Clubfoot). But Mushroom insists that she was much older, that she was wet nurse to both boys, perhaps even to their father a generation earlier.

I hadn’t thought of their connection to the number three and I’m kind of intrigued, especially since that motif is of course particularly significant in Dany’s storyline and so is the Trident. I also wonder why Qyburn (and George) picked that name for his revenant 🤔 A good Gothic house

[pessimisticpigeonsworld]

Show Criston thinking Rhaenyra would marry him after losing her virginity to him is stupid move, considering Kingsguard in the past having been killed and/or castrated for having sex like Lucamore Strong and Terrence Toyne for example. Also, feels manipulative on Criston's part, and sexist for also not considering that girls can get post-nut clarity too and won't magically bond with a guy just by sleeping with him. (Also, the fandom hate for Rhaenyra over refusing Criston's proposal reminds me of the hate Arya got for rejecting Gendry's proposal in Game of Thrones.)

Criston is infantilized just as much as the rest of TG by the fandom. He's not expected to take responsibility for his own actions and the fact that he chose to sleep with a teenager. Somehow, the fandom has decided that a teenage Rhaenyra seduced a man who is her father's age, even though only one source, who was discredited, told that story.

The show decided to go with Mushroom's telling for some reason, but even then, Criston is just as culpable. Rhaenyra was a drunk teenager who Criston had known since she was fourteen. How exactly is Rhaenyra the guilty or even morally questionable party in this scenario? He was more than capable of telling her no, he could have turned around and walked back out her door, but he didn't.

Criston wanted to be a member of the Kingsguard, he knew what the requirements and oaths entailed. He made a choice and it didn't end how he wanted. Boo fucking hoo.

People defending Criston's incel behavior is so ridiculous; reading those metas is like watching an alpha-bro podcast. He literally took Rhaenyra's rejection and used it to excuse killing an innocent man at her wedding, abuse her little children, and to try to get Aegon to assassinate her. Criston is a shitty guy in both the show and the book, end of story.

[kingsmoot]

24 helicent and 16 roddy hehehe

OH THESE ARE SO PEEFECT FOR THEMMMMM

24. What is an alternative life path your OC might have gone down? How different would their life be if they'd made those decisions?

rodwell was born on skagos and moved to the mainland in search of better opportunities because unicorn cannibal island is fun but has few prospects. he was young when he came to the north, maybe 16? i imagine he ended up in service to house bolton by basically hanging around local watering holes until he hit it off with someone who was already part of the larger castle staff who offered him a position scurbbing pots and shoeing horses. he worked his way up to castellan from there. he didn't come to the north seeking anything specific so if he hadn't stumbled on the right person at the right time he likely would've been an apprentice to a tradesman. he's strong so maybe a blacksmith or a carpenter. maybe he would've ended up marrying a farmer's daughter and taking over her father's lands when he died. nothing great, notable, or exceptional. he was not set to inherit anything on skagos which is why he left, so overall his position in canon is sort of higher than he would've ever imagined his life could be.

bolton men (as in men of the greater household not men of the family itself) are canonically aggro (they start shit when robb is amassing the northern lords at winterfell in agot and are the first to shed blood) in a way that fits with the hellraiser dracula texas chainsaw reputation of their house, so rodwell found a niche for himself that he fit well. in some ways being busy managing the dreadfort's lands and garrison spared rod from getting up to truly unsavory things he might've had the time and idle hands for otherwise. but by virtue of being kept quite busy as he worked his way up, the aggressive, violent streak of his youth was corraled and sort of tempered itself out. by the time heli was born he was a much more level headed older man resigned to never having children of his own. in some ways she rekindled a fire in him!

if luton had not killed helman, he and helicent would have run the dreadfort like the navy until helman's eldest son took over (whoever he would've married to produce that son, he was unwed and childless in canon). they would not have made substantial gains for their house because neither of them are particularly ambitious, but the smallfolk of the dreadfort would've had a really efficiently managed winter whenever it rolled around. ample stores, minimal deaths. helicent is absorbed by her personal work and is thrilled (well. not really an emotional level she reaches but. her version of thrilled.) that she can run the dreadfort with her baby brother because she is very good at the asocial, practical aspects of managing a household and would never have gotten married to manage someone else's. they make a good, pragmatic, practical team. i feel bad for helman because he would've been perfectly content to be in a loveless marriage with helicent but he got stuck being in a loveless siblinghood instead, and heli had no reason to entertain the idea of fucking for progency. i'd love to make him an au where they do fuck for one reason or another because he's just such a nice guy i feel so bad for him. helman i'm so sorry for real.

but helicent would never have married anyone but lucamore. if luton had tried to sell her off to someone else she would've just killed herself. she's sterile and practical that way. if she truly had no other choice she'd just end it, and she'd feel like this was the most obvious and rational decision anyone could've made under the circumstances.

16. What is your OC's pain tolerance like?

rodwell has a very high pain tolerance. he's trained at arms, has seen battle, and has some grisly old injuries that he bears stoically. as time progresses though and he ages into disability his pain tolerance lessens. this is not helped by the many new injuries that helicent gives him. but even in his old age with all his experimental surgical scars he has a very high pain tolerance. notable that he does not like pain, though, he just bears it well.

helicent has an average pain tolerance. she does not outwardly express her pain very much but she also doesn't like pain. she doesn't like experiencing or causing it. it's an unfortunate side effect of her surgical experimentation but she doesn't revel in it. she does get turned on when rodwell is in pain but it's more of an intensely appreciative emotional response to the fact that he would bear these things for her. not exactly turned on by the fact of his pain but by the reason for it. the pity/comfort handjobs while he lays curled up in her lap like a baby are always done with sort of an eye roll to accompany the genuine appreciation for his willingness to bear the blade for her.