warsofasoiaf

[warsofasoiaf]

Two related questions, apparently Pakistan shot down India's Western planes with Chinese air defenses does this mean China's tech is more advanced then we thought? And two I have heard that Pakistan has a lot of military experience is this true or is that just wishful thinking on their part?

From my understanding (and again, the internet is rife with misinformation), it was a J-10 that shot down an Indian MiG and a Rafale Mirage 2000. But that depends on the circumstances - was it an air-to-air kill, did they shoot and the Indian jet crash during evasive maneuvers, was it pilot error? We need more data for that.

Pakistan has primarily engaged in anti-insurgency operations against TTP rather than conventional war against another nation-state. So they do have some experience.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

how did no one know- not even Cateyln, that lord hoster had been bed bound for two years prior to cannon? Wouldn’t that be noticeable for anyone in KL or river lords that the lord of one of the greatest houses in westros and in the river lords case their liege, has disappeared in two years with edmure being de-faco lord or “my father says this” for two years?

What do you mean? Catelyn knows.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

Thoughts on the India - Pakistan conflict (not sure what else to call it)?

I hope it doesn't escalate any further.

The Indian Air Force's performance was underwhelming. While both sides are engaging in propaganda, it looks like India lost a few jets to Pakistani SAM'S, and not just old Soviet Signs that you'd expect. We'll have to wait for better confirmation (we already have one drop tank being used to a shootdown), but this makes me think that Ibdian pilots have been skimping on effective training hours.

I do not think this will escalate. Pakistan lacks the capability to conventionally engage India and so they night settle for a symbolic response and India would probably welcome it so they can refocus their efforts against China.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

What do you make of the recent deal between the US and the Houthis?

Houthi attacks have already been dropping significantly. This to me has the hallmarks of Trump declaring victory and taking credit despite doing very little, just like he did with the whole Mexico and Canada thing earlier this year.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

Does Walder Frey understand that he not only got the short end of the stick but was essentially left holding the bag after the red wedding?

Walder Frey is a short-sighted man devoted to pettily avenging any number of perceived grievances real or imagined. Why would he have long-term planning in mind when his entire schtick is that he focuses on short-term satisfaction?

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

Hello. We now have german nazis from the AfD travelling to Belgrad to talk with right wing extremists from Bulgaria, Rumania and Hungary about annexing ukrainian territories. Do you think there is a risk of this happening in the years to come?

Doubtful. Those parties lack the ability to secure political mandates in their country. I think this is an attempt by Russia to throw their deniable assets an opportunity to craft an anti-EU message and present a uniting of the nationalistic, authoritarian, far-right populists, rather than anything that would seriously have any ability to partition Ukraine ala the Nazi-Soviet Partition of Poland.

Thanks for the question, Rig.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

In your opinion, who was the USA’s most competent president? Who was the least competent?

That's not limiting enough of a criteria - competent at what? Eisenhower was perhaps the best president we had at managing the civil-military relationship (the only credible contender would be Bush 41), but that's not the be-all and end-all of a presidency. Not every president, even if they are skilled, are capable of handling certain criteria. Arguably, that's why Presidents should be selecting a Cabinet that balances their shortcomings, so that they have the requisite knowledge and experience needed to make decisions that they lack the personal touch for on their own.

For example, you could say that Washington was quite capable at being the first President for a young nation but may have struggled during the Great Depression. The question of "competence" is a very subjective matter - and very few presidents are lucky enough to be dealt problems that correspond directly with their strengths.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

In the past you have mentioned that we have had no great US President since Eisenhower. I am curious: would you offer the same critique of British Prime Ministers? I cannot speak for many of them pre-Margaret Thatcher, but it seems to me that basically all British Prime Ministers since John Major have been at best mediocre. It makes me wonder if there is, in general, a Western crisis of leadership post WWII

I think I would, yes. I'm a lot less sanguine on Clement Attlee given that he sowed the seeds for the Winter of Discontent (though Harold Wilson and *especially* Big Jim Callahan deserve more blame for that). You could say that Tony Blair rescued Labour the way that Bill Clinton rescued the US Democratic Party from a largely outdated class-based conception of politics, but unfortunately that has largely left it open to demagogues like Corbyn. And they're usually held up as the best performers in the UK.

Unfortunately, I don't have a good immunization to that sort of populist demagoguery - it's very appealing since it appeals to a sentiment of resentment and hatred that vanilla prosperity politics can't scratch.

Thanks for the question, Cle-Guy.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

In both great councils it is mentioned that bribes were paid (by the sea snake at the first and Gerold Lannister at the second). Clearly they weren’t punished but were they breaking the law by paying for votes?

That depends. Modern conceptions of bribery aren't really applicable to medieval standards of ethics. It would be considered a bribe to get your issue taken up by the government in today's time, in the medieval era, that was a normal cost of business and anyone objecting would likely be looked at quite quizzically. Paying someone to hear out your side of the case, particularly if they didn't really have one foot in the race or the other, and then being "convinced" by their argument probably wouldn't run afoul of any particular laws.

Thanks for the question, Speedy,

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

On the Wiki of Ice and Fire, the Master of Laws title is given the definition "an expert in the laws of the realm". But who does that describe? In all the years of Targaryen and Baratheon rule, when was there ever an expert on law sitting on the Small Council? I don't recall Renly ever doing anything that seemed to have any affiliation with his job. But for that matter, when did any of the other Masters of Law administer the law? None of them had the qualification to mete out justice the way that the King's Hand does. So what are they even doing on the Small Council? 

It just feels like something GRRM created in theory but forgot to apply in practice. Or maybe his point is that it is purely ceremonial for some nobleman to feel important?

That's a question I have always wanted answered. We don't see barristers or traveling judges invested with the Master of Laws's power of office. That's a hassle. Does Renly spend his time adjudication matters seen as not important enough for the royal court, and would a more active and conscientious Master of Laws handle things differently?

Technically, the King's Justice passes no judgments, merely enforces them.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

What do you think is going to happen to Tyrek? You've said you think Varys intends to install him as Lord of Casterly Rock. Will Tyrek live that long? If no, who do you think will lead House Lannister?

Varys will use him as a (heavily-coached) witness to publicly undermine Lannister authority.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

What are your takeaways on the Canadian Election? Mine is that Trump is poison for Conservatives in other nations and Polliviere sucks as a politician.

I think there's a few takeaways.

The first is quite obvious - nothing unites a people more like a powerful world leader holding your people in contempt. The voters' rejection of Polliviere was very much a repudiation of Trump's populist brand that bullied and denigrated Canadian sovereignty, to the point where they forgot about Trudeau's very real failures as PM.

The second is that Carney did enjoy a fair amount of luck. Trump's brand has soured as the people are feeling the strain of his nonsensical economic policies. Had this election been earlier, the damage to the US markets may not have sunken in amongst the Canadian voting public.

The third is that pivoting to the center is a winning strategy.

Thanks for the question, Bruin

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

which king took over the most stable position? Was it the one after the first king jahaerys?

Easily. Viserys I took over after decades of consolidation and prosperity where no one comes close. He was dealt a full house and folded his hand because he couldn't be bothered to pick up the cards.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of thr King

[warsofasoiaf]

Hello! Did Tywin get revenge on the Ironborn though? As far as I remember, the Westerlands aren t noted as taking a big part in the crushing of Balon s rebellion. I t always seemed to me that this was further proof of Tywin ignoring unpleasant truths, like with with the twincest: he couln dt get revenge in this case, so let s do as if never happened, thank you! Well, and Balon s incredible dumbness for thinking he might ally himself with him (just go get Fair Isle Balon! -_- )

He did though:

With Balon's "moat" now undefended, King Robert had no difficulty bringing his host across Ironman's Bay from Seagard and Lannisport. With his Wardens of the West and North beside him, Robert forced landings on Pyke, Great Wyk, Harlaw, and Orkmont, and cut his way across the isles with steel and fire.

Thanks for the question, Rig.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Hello. Not an American, so please excuse my ignorance. Did the Confederacy have any grand strategy or plans for victory? (to be clear, I am not a confederate sympathiser).

First off, anyone who would accuse you a Confederate sympathizer for asking a question like "what was the Confederacy's grand strategy?" needs to touch grass. This is a basic question of history and fundamental to all questions of strategic analysis? "How does a belligerent power define victory, and what steps do they take to achieve it" is a foundational question when you study any historical war - even the answer "they didn't really know how besides not die, I guess" can tell you a lot about a belligerent's war strategy and the circumstances by which a conflict arose.

The Confederacy's basic theory of victory was to erode popular support for the war in the Union and force a peace on Confederate terms. On the face of it, reducing public support and willingness to continue a conflict is a sensible strategy for any power that is outgunned, outnumbered, or both. The Confederacy hoped that by forcing high-profile, decisive losses that bled out Union manpower, they could incite popular opinion to favor a peace treaty that allowed the Confederacy to remain an independent nation. They hoped to secure recognition from foreign European capitals with the valuable cotton trade, a strategy which was doomed to failure. The Confederacy believed that abolitionist and unionist sentiment within the Union could be squashed by inflicting financial and manpower losses against the Union.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

How do you think Tywin feels about the Greyjoys? Surely the burning of his fleet at Lannisport was a major humiliation for him and this is a guy who holds grudges.

He did avenge himself by bringing fire to the islands in the Greyjoy Rebellion. Given how he treats Balon's envoy, he probably sees them as simply too worthless to exert significant effort and just to hold them in utter contempt.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Since renly pretended the twincest didn’t exist. What was he planning on doing with myrcella and tommen whe he took Kl? 

Expose them as the bastards of incest and use that to strip them of any inheritance rights. Afterward, either kill them or send Tommen to the Wall and Myrcella to the Faith, depending on what would be more politically popular.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King