#election 2023 victories

[tomorrowusa]

« Americans increasingly use polls to vent, not to vote. During the 20th century, when Americans were in a better mood about the state of the country, presidents generally had high approval ratings and broad support during their time in office. Since 2003, the national mood has grown unbelievably sour, and since 2005, sitting presidents have had underwater approval ratings during about 77 percent of their terms.

[ … ]

The median voter rule still applies. The median voter rule says parties win when they stay close to the center of the electorate. It’s one of the most boring rules in all of politics, and sometimes people on the left and the right pretend they can ignore it, but they usually end up paying a price.

The Democrats’ strong showing in elections across the country this week proves how powerful the median voter rule is, especially when it comes to the abortion issue.

[ … ]

Dull but effective government can win, and circus politics is failing. The Trumpian G.O.P. has built its political strategy around culture war theatrics — be they anti-trans or anti-woke. That culture war strategy may get you hits on right-wing media, but it has flopped for Ron DeSantis, flopped for Vivek Ramaswamy, and it flopped Tuesday night on the ballot. Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, did so well in Kentucky in part because he stayed close to the practicalities, focusing on boring old governance issues like jobs, health care costs and investment in infrastructure. He also demonstrated a Christian faith that was the opposite of Christian nationalism.

[ … ]

Remember that none of us know what the political climate will be like a year from now. Neither you nor I have any clue how some set of swing voters in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are going to see things in 12 months, or what events will intervene in the meantime. Nobody does. »

— New York Times columnist and PBS political commentator David Brooks explaining in his NYT column last week why Democrats need to "chill" about recent polls.

Democrats are sometimes too overreactive for their own good. People who are excessively nervous tend to make more mistakes.

If you have a healthy concern about next year (as opposed to paranoid worry), there are several things you can do.

First and foremost: Volunteer to register voters. Start by asking like-minded people you know if they are registered. Help them with the process. And always remind friends that they need to register whenever they change their address. ALWAYS. Do things like having voter registration tables set up outside high school graduation ceremonies. Go to where the people are.

Shoot down any talk you hear of third party or independent saviors. Not counting faithless electors, the last third party presidential candidate to score any electoral votes was segregationist George Wallace in 1968. H. Ross Perot got almost 19% of the popular vote in 1992 but got zero electoral votes. If just 539 people in Florida who voted for spoiler Ralph Nader had instead voted for Democrat Al Gore, Gore would have been president a lot of horrible things that happened under George W. Bush (like bad SCOTUS appointments) would not have happened. And if the votes cast in 2016 for bad folk singer Jill Stein in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan had gone for Hillary Clinton instead, Trump never would have been president and Roe v. Wade would still be in effect. Electoral votes are all that matter in presidential elections.

Quit fussing over Biden's age. You rarely hear Republicans doing the same about Trump who was born in 1946. Biden can sign his name on bills or veto them – there's nothing wrong with his arm and he doesn't need to use a Sharpie. He has made excellent appointments to the federal judiciary. And some of the most far ranging progressive legislation enacted since the mid 1960s happened on Biden's watch. Being younger doesn't necessarily make somebody a good president; 38-year-old Vivek Ramaswamy would be atrocious. If you really want somebody young, remember that in 2028 people born in 1993 will be eligible to be president. It will be worth the wait if Trump is in the Big House instead of the White House by then.

[moonbasetycho]

Victory for human rights in Ohio! Not even close.

[itwoodbeprefect]

maybe.... if you don't like the parties ruling on a national level...... you should simply not randomly throw your vote for the provincial elections at whichever fresh new party just popped up with zero regard for what this party's agenda actually is or whether they are a) fascists or b) a protest party specifically concerned with farmer's rights (and very little else) and for that reason explicitly opposed to measures taken to reach internationally agreed-upon climate goals

[trendynewsnow]

Nancy Pelosi Reflects on Trump's Election Victory and Kamala Harris's Campaign

Nancy Pelosi Reflects on Donald Trump’s Election Victory Throughout Donald Trump’s presidency, few Democratic figures have been as prominent in opposition as Nancy Pelosi. Serving first as the House minority leader and subsequently as the House speaker during Trump’s initial term, Pelosi played a pivotal role in two impeachment proceedings against him. Her memorable act of tearing up Trump’s…

[cleoselene]

Did you know?

Democrats have won the popular vote in seven out of the last eight presidential elections going back to 1992? The only time the GOP has won the popular vote in the last 36 years in a presidential election was in 2004, and it was a pretty narrow margin. This was a wartime election and the first election post-9/11. The Democratic candidate was the unfortunately uninspiring John Kerry, who had been lied about. You know how in politics we say someone has been "swiftboated" when a successful lie is told about them? That term originates with the 2004 election because a bunch of people concocted an elaborate lie about John Kerry's military service. He wasn't super inspiring as a candidate, but that was the worst thing he did. He wasn't a bad guy. He was just running in a very gross, jingoistic time after the worst terror attack in American history, and had a bunch of successful lies told about him to the point where a whole word about a specific kind of lie was invented about it. THIS is the only time since 1988 that the Republican party has won the popular vote. George W. Bush did not win the popular vote in 2000. The Supreme Court ordered that votes stop being counted in Florida and handed the victory to Bush.

Donald Trump has never ever won the popular vote. The electoral college handed him the victory in 2016, less than 15,000 votes across three states decided the election. Hillary Clinton in total won about 3.7 million more votes than Donald Trump. Trump HATES hearing this number. He hates even more that Joe Biden got about 7 million more votes. He hates even more that you bring up the fact that he lost his midterm elections for his party in 2018, badly. And that the "Red Wave" in 2022 did not happen because of backlash at his Supreme Court. Or that in 2023 voters continued to reject his Supreme Court at the polls.

He knows, the Republicans know, that if more people vote, they lose. They don't want small d democracy. They want authoritarianism. They want to suppress it.

So when you get cute about not wanting to vote, you're not doing activism. You're surrendering.

[ariofthesea]

Voters RE: abortion last night

[mostlysignssomeportents]

The CFPB is genuinely making America better, and they're going HARD

On June 20, I'm keynoting the LOCUS AWARDS in OAKLAND.

Let's take a sec here and notice something genuinely great happening in the US government: the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau's stunning, unbroken streak of major, muscular victories over the forces of corporate corruption, with the backing of the Supreme Court (yes, that Supreme Court), and which is only speeding up!

A little background. The CFPB was created in 2010. It was Elizabeth Warren's brainchild, an institution that was supposed to regulate finance from the perspective of the American public, not the American finance sector. Rather than fighting to "stabilize" the financial sector (the mission that led to Obama taking his advisor Timothy Geithner's advice to permit the foreclosure crisis to continue in order to "foam the runways" for the banks), the Bureau would fight to defend us from bankers.

The CFPB got off to a rocky start, with challenges to the unique system of long-term leadership appointments meant to depoliticize the office, as well as the sudden resignation of its inaugural boss, who broke his promise to see his term through in order to launch an unsuccessful bid for political office.

But after the 2020 election, the Bureau came into its own, when Biden poached Rohit Chopra from the FTC and put him in charge. Chopra went on a tear, taking on landlords who violated the covid eviction moratorium:

https://pluralistic.net/2021/04/20/euthanize-rentier-enablers/#cfpb

Then banning payday lenders' scummiest tactics:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/01/29/planned-obsolescence/#academic-fraud

Then striking at one of fintech's most predatory grifts, the "earned wage access" hustle:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/05/01/usury/#tech-exceptionalism

Then closing the loophole that let credit reporting bureaus (like Equifax, who doxed every single American in a spectacular 2019 breach) avoid regulation by creating data brokerage divisions and claiming they weren't part of the regulated activity of credit reporting:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/08/16/the-second-best-time-is-now/#the-point-of-a-system-is-what-it-does

Chopra went on to promise to ban data-brokers altogether:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/04/13/goulash/#material-misstatement

Then he banned comparison shopping sites where you go to find the best bank accounts and credit cards from accepting bribes and putting more expensive options at the top of the list. Instead, he's requiring banks to send the CFPB regular, accurate lists of all their charges, and standing up a federal operated comparison shopping site that gives only accurate and honest rankings. Finally, he's made an interoperability rule requiring banks to let you transfer to another institution with one click, just like you change phone carriers. That means you can search an honest site to find the best deal on your banking, and then, with a single click, transfer your accounts, your account history, your payees, and all your other banking data to that new bank:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/10/21/let-my-dollars-go/#personal-financial-data-rights

Somewhere in there, big business got scared. They cooked up a legal theory declaring the CFPB's funding mechanism to be unconstitutional and got the case fast-tracked to the Supreme Court, in a bid to put Chopra and the CFPB permanently out of business. Instead, the Supremes – these Supremes! – upheld the CFPB's funding mechanism in a 7-2 ruling:

https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/05/supreme-court-lets-cfpb-funding-stand/

That ruling was a starter pistol for Chopra and the Bureau. Maybe it seemed like they were taking big swings before, but it turns out all that was just a warmup. Last week on The American Prospect, Robert Kuttner rounded up all the stuff the Bureau is kicking off:

https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2024-06-07-window-on-corporate-deceptions/

First: regulating Buy Now, Pay Later companies (think: Klarna) as credit-card companies, with all the requirements for disclosure and interest rate caps dictated by the Truth In Lending Act:

https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2024/06/cfpb-applies-credit-card-rules

Next: creating a registry of habitual corporate criminals. This rogues gallery will make it harder for other agencies – like the DOJ – and state Attorneys General to offer bullshit "delayed prosecution agreements" to companies that compulsively rip us off:

https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-creates-registry-to-detect-corporate-repeat-offenders/

Then there's the rule against "fine print deception" – which is when the fine print in a contract lies to you about your rights, like when a mortgage lender forces you waive a right you can't actually waive, or car lenders that make you waive your bankruptcy rights, which, again, you can't waive:

https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-warns-against-deception-in-contract-fine-print/

As Kuttner writes, the common thread running through all these orders is that they ban deceptive practices – they make it illegal for companies to steal from us by lying to us. Especially in these dying days of class action suits – rapidly becoming obsolete thanks to "mandatory arbitration waivers" that make you sign away your right to join a class action – agencies like the CFPB are our only hope of punishing companies that lie to us to steal from us.

There's a lot of bad stuff going on in the world right now, and much of it – including an active genocide – is coming from the Biden White House.

But there are people in the Biden Administration who care about the American people and who are effective and committed fighters who have our back. What's more, they're winning. That doesn't make all the bad news go away, but sometimes it feels good to take a moment and take the W.

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/06/10/getting-things-done/#deliverism

[sosayset]

Okay, I’ve seen too much of this about Yemi in Colorado Springs and it needs to stop.  It needs to stop RIGHT NOW.  Yes he won, and that’s a good thing only because “good” in this sentence is serving as the antonym to “completely off the walls complete and total evil.”  He won mainly because people like me, people hovering right around the actual middle of the political spectrum, voted for him because *he* was the most liberal candidate and best option available.  That’s it.  And we’re not talking Biden or Hillary to Bernie or Warren, either.  This was me voting for Mitt Romney because my other option was Stalin. 

Keep in mind that Yemi is not a democrat.  He is an independent and our ballots in this city do not have party affiliation for local elections.  If you put “Democratic Party” under Trump’s name on a ballot, this city would not vote for him, probably at a 2-1 rate. 

Where does he stand on progressive issues?  He is 100% for complete and total anti-choice.  He is completely and totally opposed to marijuana and hemp and those products will not be for sale in this city during his term.  He is opposed to implementing the first responder programs that have had enormous success in the Denver metro area where social workers and the like are used instead of police in full tactical gear.  He is in favor of the voucher program where public funds for schools can go to private schools.  He is for criminal enforcement of homelessness and vagrancy and opposed to funding social programs that would further assist those in need who benefit from those programs.  He is pro-business, anti-labor and aside from being black, really doesn’t have much planned to do things for marginalized or at-risk minorities, such as LGBTQ citizens. 

The takeaway here, and this is the absolute nicest way I can put it, is that this election was a “win” only in the fact that this district is a toilet, full of people with horrible, awful, and deplorable opinions and attitudes, and for once, for the first time in my adult life, we actually didn’t choose the biggest piece of shit available to us. 

Way to go Democrats💙💙💙💙💙

[allthecanadianpolitics]

“This is a long-awaited victory for workers’ bargaining rights in Canada,” said CUPE’s National President Mark Hancock. “And let’s not forget, this is what happens when the  NDP - backed by the labour movement - put the rights of workers front and centre in the House of Commons. Let’s also not forget that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has voted against anti-scab legislation not once, not twice, but eight times in the past. The Conservatives only voted for it this time because they knew better than to pick a fight with the labour movement as we approach the next election.”

Currently, employers are able to hire scabs in order to break the morale and bank accounts of striking and locked out workers, as is the case with members of CUPE 2614 at the Port of Quebec, who have been locked out and replaced with scabs since September 2022.

Employers also use scab labour to ship jobs out of the country, as is the case with members of CUPE 2815 who have been locked out from their jobs at Videotron in Gatineau, Quebec since October 2023. While these workers have gone seven months without a paycheque, Videotron is able to continue business as usual, while paying bottom-dollar to ship jobs out of the country.

Anti-scab legislation will make all of this illegal. Employers will no longer be allowed to hire replacement workers (scabs) during strikes and lockouts, thereby balancing the scales and giving more power back to workers to fight for better wages and a better life. [...]

Continue Reading.

Tagging: @newsfromstolenland

[reasonsforhope]

Donald Trump charged in Georgia for efforts to overturn the 2020 election

Link here, because WaPo's security measures stop Tumblr previews. Non-paywall link here.

"Former president Donald Trump and 18 others were criminally charged in Georgia on Monday in connection with efforts to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in the state, according to an indictment made public late Monday night [on August 14, 2023].

Trump was charged with 13 counts, including violating the state’s racketeering act, soliciting a public officer to violate their oath, conspiring to impersonate a public officer, conspiring to commit forgery in the first degree and conspiring to file false documents.

The Recap

The historic indictment, the fourth to implicate the former president, follows a 2½-year investigation by Fulton County District Attorney Fani T. Willis (D). The probe was launched after audio leaked from a January 2021 phone call during which Trump urged Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) to question the validity of thousands of ballots, especially in the heavily Democratic Atlanta area, and said he wanted to “find” the votes to erase his 2020 loss in the state.

Willis’s investigation quickly expanded to other alleged efforts by Trumpor his supporters, including trying to thwart the electoral college process, harassing election workers, spreading false information about the voting process in Georgia and compromising election equipment in a rural county. Trump has long decried the Georgia investigation as a “political witch hunt,” defending his calls to Raffensperger and others as “perfect.”

The Details

“Trump and the other Defendants charged in this Indictment refused to accept that Trump lost, and they knowingly and willfully joined a conspiracy to unlawfully change the outcome of the election in favor of Trump,” the indictment states.

A total of 41 charges are brought against 19 defendants in the 98-page indictment. Not all face the same counts, but all have been charged with violating the Georgia Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act. Willis said she has given those charged until Aug. 25 to surrender.

Among those charged are Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor who served as Trump’s personal attorney after the election; Trump’s former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows; and several Trump advisers, including attorneys John Eastman, Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro...

Prosecutors brought charges around five subject areas: false statements by Trump allies, including Giuliani, to the Georgia legislature; the breach of voting data in Coffee County; calls Trump made to state officials, including Raffensperger, seeking to overturn Biden’s victory; the harassment of election workers; and the creation of a slate of alternate electors to undermine the legitimate vote. Those charged in the case were implicated in certain parts of what prosecutors presented as a larger enterprise to undermine the election."

-via The Washington Post, August 14, 2023

[tomorrowusa]

There was a special election in a swingy Virginia State Senate district on Tuesday. It did not go well for the GOP. 

Republicans just lost another competitive race — thanks, in part, to the issue of abortion.

“Republicans in Richmond are trying to pass a new ban on abortion in Virginia. And Kevin Adams, he wants to join them to take away women’s freedom to make our own personal medical decisions,” went one TV ad from Democrat Aaron Rouse, who flipped a GOP-held state Senate seat in Virginia from red to blue.

At issue is a push by Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin and GOP legislators to ban abortions in the state after 15 weeks of pregnancy.

Virginia has a GOP governor, Glenn Youngkin Trumpkin, who has national ambitions. The GOP holds a small majority in the lower house of the Virginia legislature (the House of Delegates) while Dems narrowly control the upper house. Youngkin Trumpkin had been wanting to enact major restrictions on abortion like ones which exist in trifecta red states. Tuesday’s special election where Democrat Aaron Rouse flipped a Republican seat has for now thwarted Youngkin Trumpkin‘s extremist anti-abortion agenda in the state.

Axios has this analysis...

Why it matters: Youngkin's efforts to build a robust governing record ahead of a possible 2024 presidential campaign — including closely watched plans for a stricter abortion ban — are at risk.

Driving the news: Democrat Aaron Rouse declared victory over Republican Kevin Adams in the Virginia Beach-based seat vacated by former GOP state State Sen Kiggans, who was elected to Congress in November.

 • The contest was held in a textbook swing district: It backed Kiggans in 2019, President Biden in 2020 and Youngkin in 2021.

 • Rouse focused his campaign message on protecting abortion rights, campaigning against Youngkin's proposal for a 15-week ban that was formally introduced in the Virginia legislature on Wednesday.

This is yet another example of why people need to pay more attention to the legislature in their respective states.

Voters in Virginia Senate District 07 helped save abortion rights in the Old Dominion state. And VA-SD07 had not been perceived a slam dunk for Dems. When you vote, you win.

All 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates and all 40 seats in the Virginia Senate are up for election in November of 2023. Yep, VA is one of those off-year states. If turnout and interest statewide are similar to that this month in SD07, Democrats should retain control of the Senate and have an excellent chance of re-taking the House of Delegates. Getting involved in state government races is the best way at the moment to protect reproductive rights.

[mariacallous]

Georgians are in the streets fighting for their democracy. The Georgian Dream party, which is working to align Tbilisi with Moscow’s interests, declared victory in the country’s Oct. 26 election before the votes were even counted. Voters and election observers were harassed by Russian-funded gangs and mobsters; just after the election, protesters holding European Union flags were sprayed with water from high-powered hoses. And the person who has the iron will necessary to lead the charge against Russian-inspired authoritarianism in Georgia? A woman: President Salome Zourabichvili.

This is no accident. Across the world, women have, and are, playing incredible roles as bulwarks against the rise of authoritarianism. Moldovan President Maia Sandu is standing up to a tsunami of Russian disinformation. In Poland, women played a critical role in the effort to oust the right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party. In Hong Kong, women continue to be the practical and normative face of resistance to Chinese authoritarian rule.

These are the freedom fighters of the 21st century. And yet, the U.S. national security community tends to view women’s issues as a domestic concern, frivolous, or irrelevant to “hard” security matters. For example, in 2003, discussions of securing Iraq excluded women, with a top U.S. general stating, “When we get the place secure, then we’ll be able to talk about women’s issues.” More recently, the role of women in the military has been reduced to discussions of diversity, equity, and inclusion, rather than a focus on how women have been vital to solving the United States’ most wicked national security problems—from serving on the front lines in combat to providing essential intelligence analysis. But if the overall aim of U.S. national strategy is to shore up democracy and democratic freedoms, the treatment of women and girls cannot be ignored.

Globally, women’s rights are often eroding in both policy and practice, from the struggles of the Iranian and Afghan women who exist under gender apartheid to the Kenyan women experiencing the harsh backlash of the rise of the manosphere. In tandem, there’s been a sharp rise in reports of online harassment and misogyny worldwide.

National security analysts explore issues and psychologies through any number of prisms, but Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) remains an underutilized one. One of the national security community’s core tasks is discerning signals from noise in the global strategic environment, and regressive ideas on gender and gender equality can be a useful proxy metric for democratic backsliding and authoritarian rise.

The United States’ 2023 Strategy and National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security provides the backbone for the United States to leverage WPS to counter authoritarianism. It highlights that displays of misogyny online are linked to violent action. The plan also points out that formally incorporating gendered perspectives is essential for maintaining democratic institutions at home and modeling them aboard. This includes recognizing misogyny—online or in policy—as an early indicator of authoritarian rise.

Unfortunately, WPS is often misread as simply including more women in the national security workforce. But it is more than that. It offers a framework for understanding why it is useful to take gendered perspectives into account when assessing how the actions of individuals or groups enhance national security, which is especially important at a time when authoritarian regimes are weaponizing gender in ways that strengthen their grip on power domestically and justify their aggression abroad.

In Russia, President Vladimir Putin has argued that he is the guardian of traditional Christian values, telling women that they should be back at home raising children, and has been rolling back domestic violence laws at the same time. Days before invading Ukraine in February 2022, Putin said, “Like it or don’t like it, it’s your duty, my beauty,” which was widely interpreted within Russia as a reference to martial rape. Russia’s own army is built on a foundation of hierarchical hazing in which “inferior” men are degraded by their comrades. With that kind of rhetoric from the top, is it any wonder that Russian soldiers’ war crimes have included the rapes of women and children?

But Putin isn’t alone. In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has consolidated media outlets to censor women’s voices, in the name of protecting traditional values. He has also used coercive financial practices to push women out of the workforce and positions of political power and into more traditional roles of wife and mother. In Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko attempted to force the deportation of the most prominent woman opposition leader and imprisoned her after she tore up her passport to prevent it. In China, where women were once told they “hold up half the sky,” President Xi Jinping has worked to undo decades of Chinese Communist Party policy on gender equality. Chinese women are now being encouraged to return home and become mothers, while feminists have been targeted legally and socially.

The WPS agenda provides the U.S. national security community with three opportunities to recognize, understand, and counter early-stage authoritarianism.

First, the United States can do a much better job of supporting women’s groups around the world as a central aspect of its national security strategy. Women’s groups are often a bellwether for authoritarian rise and democratic backsliding—as currently on display in Russia, China, Hungary, Georgia, and Belarus, where women inside and outside their respective regimes have been specifically targeted or attacked.

Women have also found innovative ways to resist the rise of authoritarian norms. In places like Moldova, women have acted as bulwarks against authoritarianism despite vicious disinformation campaigns targeting women leaders. Yet when it comes to formulating and executing strategies on national security, women’s groups are often left in the margins and their concerns dismissed.

Second, gender perspectives are essential to more fulsome intelligence gathering and analysis. The U.S. intelligence community can do a much better job of integrating gender—particularly as it relates to the treatment of the most vulnerable—as an indicator of societal and democratic health. This includes understanding how both masculinities and femininities influence decision-making and how, in turn, lived experiences act as necessary analytical tools. Training collectors and analysts of intelligence to recognize gendered indicators will provide a more robust view of the geopolitical landscape and fill critical holes in national security decision-making.

Finally, the United States must improve the participation of its national security community in WPS and feminist foreign-policy discussions. For too long, the “hard” security sector has distanced itself from more “human” security-focused endeavors and treated women’s rights as something that’s just nice to have.

Yet national security is an essentially human endeavor, and gender is a central component of what it means to be human. This is something that needs to be appreciated to better understand the many dimensions of the conflict—disinformation, online influence campaigns, and lawfare—that authoritarian regimes are waging against the United States and its allies.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Lula and Biden to announce clean energy partnership, defying Trump

The bilateral meeting between Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and U.S. President Joe Biden on the 19th will unveil a significant joint initiative on energy transition, a top priority for both leaders, according to official sources confirmed by GLOBO. Brazil's message is clear, official sources noted: "Regardless of the outcome" of the recent U.S. elections, which paved the way for Republican Donald Trump's return to the White House on January 20, "the Lula administration will uphold the agenda it's been building with the U.S."

Trump neglected the energy transition during his first term (2017-2021), and the topic lost steam following his election, but despite the evident disappointment his victory caused within the Brazilian government, the Presidential Palace and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have kept their plans for the bilateral meeting between the two heads of state intact.

The agreement will be similar to the Partnership for Workers' Rights announced by the two presidents in September 2023, which will also be part of the agenda of topics to be discussed by Lula and Biden in Rio. The energy transition partnership began being developed in early 2024, with the intention of starting implementation in 2025.

Combating climate change is a key topic in the shared agenda of Lula's Brazil and Biden's U.S., and it is expected to become a point of contention between the Brazilian president and Trump. Government sources admitted that "the future of the initiative is uncertain, but it will be announced." One goal is to change the energy matrix of both countries and promote renewable alternatives. Teams from both governments will begin working on an action plan that opposes Trump's energy vision. "We will advocate for clean energies, discuss biofuels, green hydrogen, electric cars," commented one of the consulted sources. This vision is far from the American president-elect, a proponent of fossil fuels and considered a climate change denier by environmentalists.

Continue reading.

[politicalprof]

As some of you may recall, I have participated in a continuing series of "expert" polls/panels on the state of American politics since the early years of the Trump policy. I'll provide a link to the most recent results below, but assuming most of you have no desire to plow into that data, the executive summary follows. It is interesting in its own right...

"Our key findings are the following:

Election expectations

Both parties expect their candidate to win the presidential election (87% for Republicans, 90% for Democrats). In particular, a substantial minority of Republicans (38%) and Democrats (28%) do not even expect the election to be close, creating an opening for claims of fraud or malfeasance if the result differs from their expectations.

Experts believe Trump will try to claim victory before the race is decided (median forecast: 80% likelihood) and encourage violence and intimidation by his supporters (80%). Just 7% of experts and 24% of the public think Trump will concede if he loses the election. By contrast, 75% of experts and 72% of the public think Harris will concede if she loses the election.

Campaigns

Experts rate standard campaign strategies such as promoting voter turnout as more effective than highlighting the threat to democracy posed by the other side for both candidates, including Harris.

Exposure to a message describing the endorsements that Harris received from former Vice President Dick Cheney, former Rep. Liz Cheney, and former Rep. Adam Kinzinger increased support for her among people who intend to vote in the November election by an estimated one percentage point.

Threats to democracy

80% of Republicans endorse the false claim by Trump and his allies that Democrats are trying to win the election by allowing unauthorized immigrants into the country and giving them the right to vote. Public beliefs about the prevalence of voter and election fraud remain wildly exaggerated, especially among Republicans.

Compared to October 2022, Republican acceptance of Biden as the rightful winner in 2020 has increased from 33% to 38% and their confidence in the upcoming national vote count has increased from 49% to 57%.

95% of Democrats, 82% of Republicans, and 77% of partisan independents regard it as important for the losing presidential candidate to publicly concede defeat, but Pew finds that only 59% of Trump supporters think it is important for him to concede if Harris wins.

Experts overwhelmingly rate the Supreme Court’s July ruling establishing broad presidential immunity from criminal prosecution as a threat to American democracy, including 75% who view it as a serious or extraordinary threat.

After the collapse of Biden’s candidacy, the popularity of an age limit for presidential candidates among the public increased from 61% in September 2023 to 78% today. The increase was driven by Democrats and independents, whose support jumped from 60% and 66% last year to 89% and 81%, respectively. However, 57% of experts oppose the proposal.

Assassination attempts

More than a third of Democrats endorsed the claim that the July and September assassination attempts against Trump were staged. Conversely, four in 10 Republicans say that the assassination attempts were not staged but that multiple people were involved in each.

69% of Republicans endorse the claim that Democrats encouraged or incited the assassination attempts against Trump compared to 38% of independents and 9% of Democrats."

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Kylie Cheung at Jezebel:

The day after Election Day, calls to the Trevor Project’s crisis services hotline for LGBTQ youth surged by 200%; online searches for abortion pills and emergency contraception skyrocketed, too. Queer youth, women, and girls were clearly concerned about what a second Trump presidency meant for their safety and their futures. But the country has been largely apathetic to their fears. Instead, we’re being called to consider young men’s suffering—real and imagined—and the insidious forces that seemed to shift this demographic to the right. A sampling of post-election headlines includes, “We Asked Young Men Why They Voted for Donald Trump—Here’s What They Said,” “The ‘Lost Boys’ of Gen Z: how Trump won the hearts of alienated young men,” “What’s the Matter with Young Male Voters?” and “Trump Offered Men Something That Democrats Never Could.” Of course, Jezebel is now adding to that list, but what’s missing from some of these stories is the manosphere as an increasingly powerful political arm.

Exit polls show Trump received a larger proportion of voters under 30 than any Republican presidential candidate since 2008. In 2020, Joe Biden beat Trump by 11 points among men under 30. Last week, Trump beat Kamala Harris by two points. (Among young white men without college degrees, he beat Harris 56% to 40%.) Some of this should be taken with a grain of salt: Youth turnout dropped sharply from 2020, so these stats offer an incomplete snapshot of an entire generation’s views. But, as journalists, organizers, and the Democratic Party scramble for answers, one concern that’s come to the forefront is the manosphere—a fast-growing, unrepentantly hateful community of men’s lifestyle influencers, podcasters, and media personalities who glorify and preach misogyny to a new generation of young men. Think: serially accused rapist and human trafficker Andrew Tate, hate speech-platforming Twitch streamer Adin Ross, or misogynist streamer Sneako, who once slapped a woman on camera as a “prank.” There’s also TikTok star Bryce Hall, who joined Trump on the campaign trail about a year after collaborating with proud neo-Nazis, including Sneako. One video from December 2023 shows Sneako laughing as he’s approached by young fans who yell, “Fuck the women” and “All gays can die.” He half-jokingly asks the camera, “What have I done?”

On Election Night, Trump handed the mic to UFC President Dana White (who, like Sneako, also slapped a woman on camera) at his victory party, and White directly thanked Ross, as well as the Nelk Boys and Theo Von, more popular manosphere influencers and podcasters who also supported Trump’s campaign. Over the last several months, Trump made numerous appearances on their shows and streams and hosted them at his rallies. And, because this seems to have worked, those who didn’t see Trump’s victory coming are now trying to understand this chilling sphere of influence that’s seemingly been radicalizing young men right under our noses.

It may be annoying, even disturbing to have to take this increasingly mainstream underworld seriously, but Angelo Carusone, president of Media Matters for America (MMFA), tells Jezebel that understanding the manosphere is important to understand “what future generations are going to look like.” Carusone says MMFA researchers tracked at least 20 times that Trump appeared on manosphere podcasts—including those of Von, Hall, the Nelk Boys, and Jake Paul—since May. In 2023, Ross and other popular manosphere creators including JiDion, Steve Deleonardis, Jorge Masvidal, and alleged rapist DJ Akademiks, appeared with Trump at a UFC event. The meet-and-greet was set up by right-wing video platform, Rumble.

MMFA has been closely following manosphere stars for years now, watching them and the social platforms that host them profit off of mocking rape survivors and trans people, or joking about and openly celebrating violence against women to their impressionable, mostly teen and tween boy audiences. Young people who might turn to them for apolitical interests—weightlifting, video games, MMA fighting, dating advice—are increasingly inundated with out-of-context stats and arguments about how much easier it is for women to get jobs, or minorities to get into college, or trans people to succeed at sports. These audiences are radicalized to believe a liberal, feminist world order is crushing them. Now, thanks to social media algorithms, content about weightlifting, video games, MMA fighting, and dating has become a pipeline to the right.

[...] Nicole Regalado, vice president of campaigns at Ultraviolet, told Jezebel her organization has been tracking online misogyny campaigns since Gamergate in 2014, which saw an outbreak of rabid sexism, racism, and queerphobia against perceived feminist progress in the video game industry. But she’s been alarmed by sharp rises in online harassment against women in recent years. It doesn’t help, Regalado said, that at a time when the manosphere is surging, with the help of anti-MeToo backlash and a golden age of media illiteracy, “social media platforms are gutting moderation, trust, and safety teams,” while “platforming and profiting off hate.” A lot of this came to a head with the outcome of the 2024 election, Regalado said, which “followed months of disinformation and racism-misogyny about Kamala Harris” from popular right-wing, manosphere-type influencers. Trump’s victory has only emboldened this toxic stew of misogyny, culminating in the viral “your body, my choice” slogan.

I understand the importance of Democrats and progressives figuring out how to “reach” young men—the electoral stakes are high, especially for the most marginalized among us. But in the last week, I’ve often found myself frustrated, even disgusted by the idea that young men are uniquely suffering because they’re young men, that they deserve outsized sympathy and attention at a time when women and other marginalized communities are on the brink of perhaps one of the severest rollbacks of our rights in modern times. Teen girls and young women suffer from endemic sexual violence and misogyny, and many still find it in their hearts to not elect a fascist. 

Carusone says he’s struggled with this, too. But he’s made sense of it by understanding the manosphere and its toxic, mass appeal as a youth issue. “The 30-year-old men who are upset, the Tucker Carlsons of the world, they need to get over it. They’re not who I’m talking about,” he said. But manosphere content is poisoning the minds of children, shaping them to become violent toward other children, to grow up and inflict violence on marginalized people. “We have to think about this as it relates to kids. If we don’t do something about this now, we’re messing up kids,” Carusone explained. “As these boys and young men grow, they’re going to build and organize political power, and even worse, as they move into maturity, they’re going to be more violent and abusive than previous generations.”

Jezebel does an excellent report on how the cadre of manosphere influencers such as the Nelk Boys, Sneako, and Adin Ross-- who helped push young men to the right and push Donald Trump over the finish line and how they’ll shape politics.

[nothingelsematterswrites]

Because I'm feeling petty, and it is the anniversary of The Tweet That Rocked The Grid, I decided to compile the most important piece of Oscar Lore.

I present to you: the most complete timeline of how alpine fucked up their handling of oscar piastri, aka, the piasco, to the best of my knowledge

(information compiled from multiple sources)

March 2021: Oscar Piastri makes his F2 debut in Bahrain, at the first round of the season. He immediately makes a splash by finishing fifth in the first sprint race and winning the second.

May 2021: Monaco. Oscar again impresses, collecting an 8th and two 2nds (including one in the feature race). Meanwhile, in Formula One land, Laurent Rossi offers a four year deal to Esteban Ocon, which he signs.

Rossi did not consult with any of the Alpine board about this offer, which is unprecedented for a driver who had not yet even won a race and unusual even for a race-winner who was not a champion.

What this does do, however, is effectively block one of the Alpine seats until 2025.

June-July 2021: Oscar continues to collect consistent points finishes at Baku and Silverstone, including podiums, keeping him in the championship hunt.

August 2021: Esteban Ocon wins the Hungarian Grand Prix.

September 2021: Oscar and Daniel win in Monza on the same day, with Oscar taking out the F2 feature race on the same day Daniel wins the Italian Grand Prix. Oscar follows this with another feature race victory in Russia, solidifying his points lead.

It is about this time that Alpine sit Oscar and Mark Webber down and explain that no matter what Oscar does now, he will not be in F1 next year. Alpine will have him as a reserve driver only and will not make the effort to put him in a race seat, despite Williams publicly saying they no longer require the money Nicolas Latifi brings in and are open to other drivers for 2022.

November 2021: Alfa Romeo announce that Zhou Guanyu, third place in the F2 championship, will be replacing Antonio Giovinazzi for 2022. This causes quite the uproar, as many despise the idea of Zhou getting a seat before Oscar, the talented rookie champion-elect.

The Piastris (Oscar and his father Chris) and Mark sit down with Alpine and agree to terms for 2022 and beyond, outlined in a terms sheet. This terms sheet is not a contract, but an agreement to sign a contract. The terms sheet outlines that Oscar will be the Alpine reserve driver for 2022; that he will be given practice sessions, certain private tests, and two FP1 sessions; and that Alpine guarantee him a seat on the 2023 grid, presumably with Williams. The terms sheet specifies that the actual contract will follow in 10 business days.

December 2021: Oscar wins the F2 championship in Jeddah after winning the second sprint race and the feature race. He then follows this up with a podium in sprint race one and a win in the feature race at Abu Dhabi, only serving to make Alpine look even more stupid. He is announced as the reserve for Alpine for 2022 and participates in the end of season test for Alpine.

No contract has appeared.

January 2022: Mark follows up with Alpine about the reserve driver contract, and is told, "it's coming".

No contract has appeared.

February 2022: Mark begins to hassle the legal team at Alpine about the contract. At some point, he has an exchange as follows: "I can't keep telling them that the contract is coming." The lawyer replies that she is the only one in the entire legal department, and that she has to do everything before the season starts.

No contract has appeared.

March 2022: During pre-season testing, Daniel Ricciardo tests positive to COVID-19. Alpine make arrangements with McLaren that if Daniel is not fit for Bahrain, Oscar will drive for him. Oscar still does not have a contract at this point. Alpine realise that without a contract, he does not have a superlicence (thereby making him ineligible to drive even if Daniel isn't fit.)

Panicking, the lawyer in Alpine's legal department writes "legally binding" across Alpine's copy of the terms sheet and submits that to the FIA in order to grant him his superlicence.

Five days before the Bahrain Grand Prix, Oscar Piastri finally sits down and signs a contract with Alpine to be their test and reserve driver for the 2022 season. This contract very explicitly only covers 2022, and does not contain any provisions for 2023.

Daniel finishes 17th in Bahrain, ahead of Lando Norris, and is running ahead of Norris and in the points when his gearbox fails in Jeddah.

April 2022: Oscar fulfils his duties as test and reserve driver, including being paraded around in Australia. Daniel finishes 5th in Australia after a nasty team order keeps him behind Norris' ailing car. At Imola, he is sixth in the sprint, only just behind Norris, but finishes 18th in the race after an uncharacteristically clumsy T1 move.

May 2022: Oscar conducts a private test with Alpine at Paul Ricard, using the 2021 car. No times are published, but there is a whisper on social media from the spectators who were there that Oscar was faster than Esteban Ocon had been the previous year. Daniel finishes 13th at the race in Miami after mechanical issues in qualifying and strategy issues in the race, which Andreas Seidl publicly apologises for. He finishes 12th at Spain, due to a broken rear end (which McLaren do not acknowledge until several days after the race).

After the Spanish Grand Prix, Zak Brown conducts an interview where he calls Daniel "disappointing" and lays the blame for their substandard results squarely at Daniel's feet. Daniel is then harassed by the media all through the Monaco weekend, where he finishes 13th.

It is also about this time that Alpine begin to publicly state that they are courting Fernando Alonso for a contract extension for 2023, meaning no seat will be available for next year at Alpine.

June 2022: It is about this time that Zak Brown begins shopping Daniel's seat behind his back. There are several interested parties involved, including Alex Palou and Pato O'Ward of Indycar.

Alpine continue to insist to Mark and Oscar that the 2023 deal is in progress. However, at about this time, rumours start to fly that Oscar is going to replace Nicolas Latifi at Williams after Silverstone. Williams angrily deny this, stand by Latifi, and publicly state that they are done being used as a dumping ground for other teams' juniors when they have their own - a seemingly firm statement that Oscar will not be welcome while he is attached to Alpine.

Mark makes contact with McLaren, and negotiations begin.

5 July 2022: On this date Oscar Piastri signs his contract with McLaren. The contract is initially as a reserve driver with mechanisms to make him the race driver if McLaren can negotiate an exit with Daniel. Oscar informs Otmar Szafnauer and Laurent Rossi shortly afterwards, and does so a second time at some point in the next three weeks.

11 July 2022: Zak Brown states to the media that Daniel Ricciardo will be driving for McLaren in 2023. About this time, Daniel visits the factory, and makes a tearful, impassioned promise to the team members that he is working incredibly hard and will be driving for them next year.

28 July 2022: Sebastian Vettel shocks everyone by announcing his retirement from Formula One at the end of the season, throwing the grid into disarray.

30 July 2022: Lawrence Stroll contacts Fernando Alonso and offers him the drive for next year. Unlike Alpine, Lawrence does not hesitate to put a paper contract in front of Fernando, and offers him a 2+1 deal where Alpine had been pondering a 1+1. Fernando, tired of the games of Alpine, signs immediately.

1 August 2022: Aston Martin announce that Fernando Alonso will join the team from 2023.

Either 1 August 2022 or 2 August 2022: Otmar Szafnauer corners Oscar in the simulator, in front of several other Alpine staff, and informs him he has the Alpine drive in 2023. Oscar is aware that if he challenges Szafnauer he will make a scene and does not say anything.

2 August 2022: Alpine announce that their 2023 driver lineup will consist of Esteban Ocon and Oscar Piastri. Eagle-eyed fans note that there are no quotes from Oscar in the press release, which has a very strange vibe. They are right, because...

A few hours later, Oscar sends The Tweet. There is immediate uproar.

August 2022: Otmar Szafnauer and Laurent Rossi proceed to go on a smear campaign against Oscar, calling him disloyal and questioning his integrity. Even other team principals (unwisely) get involved, despite not knowing the full story. Alpine is threatening court action, and the matter is scheduled for a Contract Recognition Board hearing. Oscar and Mark do not say a word, and nor do McLaren, who everyone assumes is the team that got him.

24 August 2022: McLaren announce that they have agreed with Daniel to part ways for the 2023 season. They do not announce his replacement and Daniel does not have a drive for 2023 arranged.

2 September 2022: The Contracts Recognition Board hearing takes place. Alpine are savagely humiliated as the full extent of their incompetence is laid bare. The mediators express their clear disdain for Alpine's actions, including their incredulousness that a lawyer possibly thought it acceptable to write "legally binding" on a terms sheet, the fact that the lawyer had pleaded with Laurent Rossi for more help several times and Alpine's "shilly-shallying" over even getting Oscar his reserve contract, let alone a race one. They find that the only valid contract Oscar had for 2023 was the one with McLaren, and Alpine are ordered to pay Oscar's, Mark's, and McLaren's costs.

After all of their bluster and slander, it turns out that Otmar Szafnauer and Laurent Rossi genuinely believed the terms sheet was a contract that entitled them to Oscar's services for 2023.

Alpine fire the lawyer. (So I guess nobody is in their legal department, now?)