#but like imagine a poll is like vote what the last number is in the notes when you see this

[hoeterra]

Can’t wait till it turns out tumblr polls are susceptible to privacy deanonymization attacks and someone can tie an individual tumblr account to whatever anonymous key tumblr backend uses to make it so an account can’t vote in a poll more than once (something like a reconstruction attack or reidentification attack) and then, from that, use that account and its key to figure out how it answers in other polls to figure out exactly who that person is based on other info shared on other social medias/public info/online spaces (:

[nova2kss]

Influencer island

“GOOD MORNINGGG AMERICAAAAA”

“I’m your host Yanna Bailey to Influncer Island. It’s new, it’s hot, it’s dramatic, and it’s your new obsession!”

“We’re bringing all of your fav influencers and Internet personalities across the country for a steamy hot adventure”

“You all know them”

“And you all love them”

“I have hand picked these hotties myself…some ofc more known than others none the less they are all wild and ready to come in swinging!”

“Before I introduce you to the men that will participate in influencer island I think it’s fair that I give you a run down of what this show will look like!”

“These 16 hotties will come in ready to pick some partners and participate in challenges”

“Each pair will receive points based off of where they place on the board and based off votes from the viewers aka you guys”

“At the end of each episode there will be a poll placed for voting”

“You guys will be able too vote who should stay, go, and receive a punishment, or a hot date”

“With that being said let’s introduce the men of INFLUENCER ISLAND.

“Coming in first we have the famous polo boy himself”

“Armin Arlert”!

“He’s best known on instagram for being the cute polo soft boy model as stated in his bio, the internet has named him the number 1 golden retriever baby and I couldn’t agree more!”

“Armin is such a sweet heart and I know he can’t wait to be here….but with him being a sweetie pie…will he be able to hang and get wild with the rest of the contestants?”

“Especially this chipped tooth, beer drinking, horse riding, dirty country boy gone viral”

“Reiner Braun”!!

“This big beefy boy best known on that clock app has gone viral for bringing his southern ways onto the app, Reiner caught the attention of many wild men and sexy ladies and was requested by the merrier”

“Currently living in Mississippi but we all know he’s a real south Floridian gator wrestling boy. He’s the perfect match for this cast”

“Next up we got this black cat clothing owner bertoldt hoover!!”

“Best known for his brand flontae clothing and getting hella wild on them boats, don’t let the pretty eyes fool you this city boy knows how to party”

“Kristen made that cast Okay!”

“Y’all know him cause he definitely produced your favorite songs”

“He’s worked with Nicki Minaj, lil Wayne, drake, lil durk, Kanye west, and so many more”

“However when he’s not in that Stu making beats he’s out hosting the biggest parties and filming it all letting us know he was a perfect candidate for this cast!”

“This hot head was requested by the executive producer herself, we’ve seen him whoop ass in that underground ring, we’ve seen him getting wild in the streets, we’ve seen him catchin ass on twt and we wanna see MOREEE!!”

“Everyone love porco”

“But I don’t think as much as y’all love this sexy stoner”

“Constance springer the man that you are”

“He’s 6’0 tatted like a chipotle bag and he is the life of the party! This skater boy most known on TikTok and YouTube is definitely  influential and definitely deserves his spot here

“As stated himself he is a fine chocolate sexy black man”

“Get this! He’s also a brand ambassador for flontae clothing who would’ve known”

“Onyankapon, such a pretty name for a pretty boy.”

“We don’t know how wild ony gets and that’s why he was picked cause the whole world wants to see, he’s seen as someone who doesn’t do much. But I’m willing to bet as soon as he steps foot on this sand that will change.”

“And last but certainly not least”.

“Eren Yeager.”

“Or jaeger”

“Regardless this man dose not need an intro at all, you’ve seen him right with Beyoncé on her ivy park campaign”

“You’ve seen him on the front page of Louis Vuitton”

“You all love him and rightfully so he is something else sporting that black motorcycle when he’s not doing them photo shoots”

“You see these men? These are who are gonna be across your screens in the next few weeks!! Now just imagine the women.”

“On the next preview we will be introducing your favorite wild ladies! It’s your host Yanna Bailey signing out!”

How do you guys feel?😁

(Not proofread)

[atskiruma]

you bump into him

expl: while looking down at what you were holding, you didn't notice the person in front of you; bumping straight into them

a/n: the poll is still going but i'd say this won with the overwhelming vote of 61 to 38 | the poll of the last imagine

second-person writing no pronouns used | uses of the pet name baby in heizous part

It seems that the Zapolyarny Palace was bustling with people today. It was no surprise when you entered the palace and were welcomed by a lot of people going which-ways trying to find their places. It was usually this busy regardless, seeing as the Fatui were extremely important, especially in the roots of Snezhnaya.

Tasked with being Pantalone's personal assistant, you also found yourself rushing between rooms and meeting with several other business owners hoping to borrow money from the organization.

This meant that breaks were rare since Pantalone worked you to the core and was always finding things for you to do. And you also met with a lot of the other Fatui members and were remarkably close to them. Those who Pantalone favored, were also in your favor, and those he disliked, you stayed away from.

"I need to you bring these to Pulcinella. Make sure to keep them all in order and once you give them to him, tell him I also marked the presentation for the next Tuesday." Pantalone said without giving you a glance. He seemed too interested in the vials that The Doctor had given him, Dottore was also present in the room.

You nodded, opening the door and leaving the room to make your way across the building. Continuing to look down at the documents, you marked every number at the top of the page in order to make sure they were in the correct order once you arrived. Knowing that there was hardly anyone in the hallway, you didn't mind not looking where you were going.

You were able to take 2 more steps until you collided with a hard surface. "Oof!" Came from your mouth until you watched as the papers burst into the air and landed in multiple different spots in the large hallway.

The distress you felt was ignored when you looked up and saw a large patch of ginger hair. The 11th Fatui Harbinger standing in front of you after turning around from the commotion. This was one of the harbingers that Pantalone did not like.

"Sorry about that! Seems like I was taking up a lot of the hallway." He said, before reaching down to help you pick up your papers. You also bent down to pick up some, noticing his lingering glances towards you in your peripheral every now and then.

Once the both of you picked up the papers, he handed you the ones he got and stepped back a bit to give you some space. Smirking at you while putting one of his hands on his hip.

"You're Pantalone's assistant aren't you? I know a familiar face when I see one." He said, walking behind you and putting a hand on your back while he urged you to keep walking to your destination.

That was when Pantalone's voice reached both of your ears, calling you to turn around and face him. You did, seeing as he was standing there with his hands crossed over his chest.

"I see you're taking my assistant somewhere Childe, may I ask you to halt your plan and return them at once." He said, his voice hinting at a small amount of irritation underneath.

Childe smiled, before reaching down to take your hand and place a kiss on top of it. "We'll meet again," He said, before walking away with a sly smirk on his face.

The Traveler always seemed to excite their old-time friend and companion who came around once in a while and indulged you on the matter more times than you could count. This was a blonde-haired man who wore a black and blue cape, with a very mysterious personality.

But you never met him, of all the times you heard about him, you could practically call the two of you friends. You knew so much about the man but never came in contact with him once. This did spark curiosity, but at the same time, you were never going out of your way to finding him.

This changed when you and the Traveler were exploring the 3rd Windblume event in Mondstat. Multiple shops were open for longer, with new and exciting things to explore in them. It seemed the two of you, or, three of you, including the white-haired thing following along, were out for quite some time. This was evident when the sun began to set across the tall walls surrounding the city.

You were looking down at the new souvenirs you acquired on your trip to the shops and didn't notice the man standing in front of you near the front gates. With a swift moment, you managed to bump right into him when he seemed to be in a trance at the other shops along the coast.

This caused the both of you to get spooked in result, his hands coming to grab your waist when you tumbled backward and almost fell. When you finally opened your eyes, you were met with a very handsome blonde man... wearing a black and blue cape.

"Dainsleif! It's great to see you!" The white-haired creature exclaimed, learning that her name was Paimon after you asked who it was following the Traveler around all day. This also resulted in you receiving an awful nickname for your ignorance.

"Traveler, Paimon, I see you two are enjoying the festival." He said, with his hands evidently still on your waist. A small blush crept onto your face when you noticed he wasn't letting go either.

"Oh? Do you two know each other already?" The Traveler spoke, with a small smirk forming when they noticed the position both of you were in.

"No... I don't think we've met." He said, still completely oblivious to his action. Paimon also exclaimed, asking if the two of you were dating, which then called his attention to what was happening. He let go and dusted his hands off lightly on his pants, clearing his throat in slight embarrassment.

"Apologies, I'm Dainsleif, I also travel along Teyvat like the Traveler here."

Your rosy cheeks didn't seem to help your case when you spoke, "Nice to meet you... I think I'm going to head back you two, but I'll see you later." Speaking towards the Traveler and Paimon, you took a swift escape down the bridge and back to where you originally came from.

Dainsleif also found himself watching you leave until you were completely out of view, his left hand tightening a bit in remembrance of feeling your waist in his pocket.

The Tenryou Commission was not where you wanted to be right now. But Thoma said it was the place to go when finding out where your lost change went after that robber passed by you in a flash.

He said you could find someone where to help you since all of the crime in Inazuma seems to be solved in the walls of the famous and intellectual detectives here.

It was noted that you really didn't know where you were going. The building was huge and you had never stepped foot in it before.

Multiple people could be seen going back and forth between rooms and others were off to the sides talking to themselves. It was really confusing, where did you go to talk to someone who'd help? Would anyone here help?

While walking around mindless, you hadn't looked where you were going and immediately bumped into someone. The man wasted no time grabbing you before you fell, and when you opened your eyes, you were immediately met face-to-face with bright green pupils.

"Woah! Watch out there, glad you bumped into me rather than anyone else Baby." A man said while still holding onto you when he lifted you up. You looked straight at him and tried to pick a name with the face, but came up with nothing.

"My name is Heizou if that's what you're wondering." He spoke, looking at you with a kind smile. "Can I ask what you're doing here? I can't imagine someone as attractive as you coming along." His flirtations seemed to pass by you one by one as he kept piling on compliments left and right.

The sound of the clan's head boomed across the hallway towards you too. "I've been waiting for your arrival! Thoma told me what happened, I'm here to help." Kujou Kamaji's voice was followed. You tried to turn and look at him but were still trapped in Heizou's arms.

"I see you've met Detective Heizou. Are you two perhaps close?" He asked once reaching you both. Your flustered face practically blew up and before you could say something, Heizou had already beaten you to it. "I'll be helping with the case instead Sir, but thank you for coming all this way." He said with a smile.

Your stuttering pleas for help didn't seem to reach either of their ears while they chatted and by the time they stopped, Kamaji was already walking away. You sighed looking back at Heizou to see him already looking towards you with a smirk.

"So anyways, how can I help you?"

Working for the head of the Kamisato Clan was scary at first, you didn't know how to act around such important people. Eventually, you warmed up though, Thoma was very nice showing you the ropes and telling you that it was gonna be okay.

You also met a lot of people on the way through working your way up the ranks. You were just below Thoma's role and were helping him help the two siblings who ran the whole place.

Today was the day that the Traveler and a couple of other friends came to visit for some dinner. You and Thoma were invited of course, but the duties of cleaning came first and seemed to take up most of the time they were there.

The both of you worked as hard as you could, making sure every place around the house was spotless and clean. You eventually had to run back a few times to refill the bucket of water you were using, which was something you were tasked with doing again after getting through 4 rooms with the same bucket of water.

You managed to pick up the heavy bucket and insisted you do it when you saw Thoma's concerned glance. Walking out of the room you two were currently cleaning and watching the water as you walked to your backyard to insure you didn't spill, you hadn't noticed the person standing in your way in the hallway.

Met with a hard back, you shut your eyes and let out a grunt before stumbling backward with the bucket in hand.

"I'm really sorry, I didn't watch where I was going." You said before looking up at the man in front of you. Kazuha, that was his name. You remembered from the numerous amounts of visits he and the Traveler paid here.

He looked at you with a soft smile and glanced towards the soaked clothes you now wore after bumping into him. His eyes didn't seem to return to your own for a bit, and he looked more in a trance than anything at the fact that you were now soaked and more exposed.

"Apologies," he finally spoke, "I should have moved more off to the side in case of anyone going down the hall." His kind words reached your ears, and you smiled back. "Please, it's my fault, I was the one not looking where I was going." You said with a closed eye smile, that was until you felt something touch your chest and immediately shot your eyes open in surprise.

Kazuha had taken out a handkerchief and was dabbing the area where you had gotten wet. He seemed pretty focused on doing it too, his hand occasionally being too one to touch more of you than the cloth. You began flusteredly stuttering out words of assurance that it was okay and you were fine being a little wet. He didn't seem to hear you though and kept making sure to soak up as much water as possible in the tiny little handkerchief.

Once he was finished, he stood back up straight again and kept smiling at you. If you focused, a small blush coated his cheeks from the interaction.

"My apologies again, you've worked so hard making this place look nice." He said, and you smiled back with a larger blush on your own. Moving around him, you walked past to keep your journey going outside to empty the bucket, not before his hand brushed along your side as he walked the other way.

[nothorses]

May I ask why you think Biden stepping down and Kamala being the candidate to be 'good news'? I'm still voting for whoever the Democratic candidate is ofc, but I worry this move threw away the average swingvoter who may have been swayed towards voting blue. I don't see how anyone who may have been okay voting for Biden by virtue of him being an old white dude is gonna be as nice towards a brown woman. I mean, people were too sexist for Hillary, the most milquetoast white woman imaginable. I'd really like to hear your perspective.

Biden has been polling like shit for months, and basically fucking everyone has been calling for him to step out of the race for a while now. It's been the opinion of political experts that he doesn't have much of a shot in this election for a variety of reasons. The vast majority of his own base is incredibly dissatisfied with his stance on Palestine (an understatement), and numbers have been reflecting that he was going to be running against some truly miserable odds because of that.

It is genuinely the best option for him to step out of the race. Literally just about anyone else has a much better shot at winning than Biden did. Kamala included! There was a press conference a while back where someone actually asked him if he'd step down if Kamala polled better, and he said he wouldn't. Which is extremely worrying, because it demonstrates that he may have been prioritizing his own personal ego over the importance of keeping Republicans out of office this election.

I don't like Biden, and I really didn't like his odds in this race. Nobody else did, either. The fact that Obama came out and said Biden needs to step down is indication enough that this happened because the situation is really that dire; you have to remember that Democrats are all about Doing Things By The Book, especially in the last 8-ish years when it's been useful for them to be Rule Followers in contrast to the tantrum-throwing chaos machines that Republicans have been. If there was even a sliver of hope for Biden to stay in the race after being chosen in the sad sham that the primaries were this election cycle, they would have kept pushing just to stay within the bounds of convention.

I was ready to push for Biden regardless, because keeping Republicans out of office is priority #1. But I've been saying for a while now that he needs to drop out (just... not on Tumblr, where the dominant conversation is "does voting for a flawed political pawn make you personally responsible for everything they ever do, or should we abstain and let the fascists hijack our government and kickstart several new genocides for the sake of personal moral purity" and I don't think that kind of nuance would be well-received).

I use my grandparents as a litmus test in a lot of this stuff, because they are very much the Typical Liberal Democrats, and their opinions on these things tend to fall in line with the majority of voting Democrats. They absolutely loved Biden in 2020, long before he was chosen as the candidate. They don't anymore. Seeing them lose any and all enthusiasm for voting for this corpse of a man was evidence enough to me that we needed someone else. Ideally someone people can get excited about, because I think folks have mostly lost the perspective we had in 2020 when Trump's nightmarish presidency was fresh in everyone's minds, and served as motivation enough to get to the fucking polls- regardless of who the Dem pick actually was.

From what I understand, Kamala is actually polling better than anyone else right now. I have my fears about voters' racism and misogyny too, but if she's doing well in the polls, I wonder if maybe there's some other factors counteracting that. She's also got name recognition, and the general impression of Being Qualified (because she's been VP already, like Biden was), and Being Likeable (because she comes with the general positive associations of the largely successful Biden presidency, without any baggage of perceived responsibility that Biden himself carries- like Biden did with Obama). She's been flying under the radar while still reaping the benefits of positive associations, and people know who she is. That feels like a good combination, but I don't know enough, and I haven't read enough into it to make any decently educated guesses.

That said, I don't really know as much about who the other potential candidates might be, either. I've heard Pete Buttigieg's name tossed around, but nobody liked his ass back in 2020 and idk if that's actually changed at all. I just know that every politically-knowledgeable/politically-active leftist whose opinion I've heard on the topic has been citing Biden dropping out as the literal only hope for a non-Republican to win this election, and I'm really fucking excited to see that come to fruition. I just hope the Dems pick someone who really does have a good shot.

As a sidenote, I also really hope this marks a shift in how they make decisions, too. It's become increasingly obvious how out-of-touch Democrats are with their voters, and Biden 2024 was just the latest and greatest indicator of exactly how bad that's gotten. The fact that the party has been able to make such an unconventional decision in response to what their voters actually want gives me a little bit of hope that we might be able to influence more change with them going forward than we have been.

[ferretrade]

y'all voted overwhelmingly for the codywan bodyguard/fake marriage au in that poll last month so I come bearing a little intro/teaser for it. :)

It's an ordinary Tuesday and Cody should've known it wouldn't stay that way.

When he comes into work, Fox and Wolffe are holed up arguing in their office. Cody diligently ignores them in favor of getting on with his own shit in the relative peace; he's only just gotten their accounts into shape and he's still working on maximizing their profits and cutting down expenses. (They were rather bleeding money when Fox and Wolffe had been taking care of the books themselves.) 

Before long, his closed door is ignored and the brothers stroll in with a feral energy that raises Cody's hackles. Last time they looked like that, they'd roped him into joining their business—and the time before, he'd been convinced to go cliff jumping. Trouble, all the same. 

"Cody," Fox croons dangerously. 

"No thank you."

Fox scoffs. "Told you he wouldn't even hear us out."

Cody narrows his eyes. "You can't taunt me into being interested," he lies. From Fox's smirk, he knows. (And isn't that just the problem with working with family?) 

"Cody, Fox," Wolffe snaps exasperatedly. "Can we get to the point?" 

It's serious, then. Cody frowns. "What is it? You need to fire someone?" 

"It's a job," Fox says, sitting on the edge of Cody's desk. "We need someone undercover and you're it." 

"I'm not a guard," Cody points out. He was very specific when he joined Canidae Personal Protection; he'd gone to school for business management and accounting—he's the numbers guy, the one who could keep his brothers' dream running and growing. Because, look, he supports it one hundred percent. Fox and Wolffe had long wanted to have a one stop shop for protective services and self-defense classes, specifically for underserved communities who were really in danger. But that didn't mean he wanted to be a bodyguard or even a trainer. Cody made sure they could do what they wanted and found ways they could put more money toward the people who mattered. That's where his skills really make a difference. 

"That's why you're ideal for this. It needs to be… discreet."

Cody narrows his eyes at Fox, trying to discern what exactly he's not being told. 

Wolffe sighs. "Cody, you're our best man for the job. We need someone we can trust." 

"Bly," Cody names. 

Wolffe glares at Fox and Cody imagines this was part of the argument he overheard earlier. 

"Not possible," Fox insists, mostly to Wolffe. "To do something undercover on this level, with this time crunch? We need a blank slate. No partner, no bodyguarding history, but capable of guarding." 

Undercover. No partner. Ah. "You want me to be a pretend boyfriend." 

Fox lights up. "Not quite," he says. "But that's the real highlight, this guy is your type. You'll have no trouble selling it."

"My type?" Cody raises an eyebrow. "Which is?"

"Don't act like you don't have one," Fox scoffs. "We know you."

"Look," Wolffe jumps in before it can get messy. "You'll get along with him, is all. And you're not engaged."

Cody hums. Fair, Bly wouldn't be suited to pretend date someone else. Cody still doesn't like it, but he can see the desperation on Wolffe's face and hiding behind Fox's pushing. Whatever the reason, they really do need him. 

"Fine," Cody relents. "But you're telling me every detail and I'm not cheap." 

"Great." Fox grins sharply as he hops off the desk, clapping his hands together. "I already hacked your data. Congrats, you're now Cody Kenobi." 

[asmallorb]

Regarding the 2024 Election: Do not despair.

I left Tumblr for Cara a while back but I'm here again to make myself heard on the matter. This is a post I've been wanting to make to my US friends for a while, and certain events have spurred things forward. Do not despair. Always remember the future is unwritten. No matter what your friends or family say, no matter how much media pressures you that things are a certain way, no matter what polls say - your vote is not and never will be pointless. Both here in the UK and France there was a lot of uncertainty around whether the conservative parties would take the vote. But voter turn out proved them wrong. In an example closer to home for you; Oklahoma County came very close to flipping in 2020 as Biden and was only 3,326 votes shy. So yes, even if you are in a state where the rural mentality is dominant, that still shouldn't discourage you from making your own voice heard. Can you imagine if everyone who didn't bother to vote turned up and made the difference? Your vote matters. Period. So please, if you haven't registered to vote in the upcoming elections. Do so. ANYONE who says that your vote doesn't matter in the state that you're in, or discourages you from voting for whatever reason - doesn't want you to vote. If you feel like your vote doesn't matter, vote anyway. If you expect protesters to be around polls ready to intimidate you, go with friends, family or vote over post. In the US record numbers of younger voters have already signed up to vote, go be one of them.

I would also strongly advise adding some palate cleansers to your news feed. Because here's a hard truth that few are willing to accept - there is good in this world. There are good people doing amazing things and making real tangible progress that you are benefitting from right now and don't even know about. People think that negativity = being realistic and that gives them a free pass to not participate in making a better future, when in fact the opposite is true. While I myself am a firm believer of preparing for the worst, it's important to have room in your mind for hoping for the best as well. Because if you just roll over and accept the worst outcome, guess what, it will happen because you let it happen. I highly recommend Fix the News. https://fixthenews.com/ and the blog @reasonsforhope.

One last thing:

Don't let perfect be the enemy of done.

Yes, the democrats are not perfect. And should be called out by the people they're supposed to serve when they fail.

But struggling over if they're the perfect candidate is not going to help in this situation.

Vote, donate, talk to friends and family.

And most of all: do not let yourself regret not participating when you had the chance.

[redistrictgirl]

The Case For Kamala Harris 20 Days Out

Nate Silver just crowned former President Trump the (microscopically narrow) favorite. Morning Consult is showing Democrats losing Wisconsin. So why has my model consistently given Harris an edge and what are the arguments that she'll win on November 5th?

Trump's path to victory is narrow. On paper, a three-point edge in the popular vote is smack dab in the middle of the last two very close elections. Tossup, right? But let's say the 2016 coalitions voted again in an environment one point bluer - Harris wins. Let's say the 2022 coalitions repeat in a much better national environment - Harris comfortably beats Trump. Let's say trends continue based on 2020 - it's called on Tuesday night. Trump basically needs his exact 2020 coalition or something slightly better to win in a D+3 environment. It could happen, but a lot would have to break against Harris with not much breaking for her.

Early voting stats are probably better for Democrats. Look, we don't have a complete picture yet, but early data from Pennsylvania and Michigan suggest there's more enthusiasm among Democrats compared to Republicans, while Georgia is a wash and Florida is pretty comfortably Trumpy. That's good news for Harris and suggests an efficient 2022-like coalition.

Harris still has an edge in state-level polls. Big-picture time, as close as they are, a political party would rather be seeing Democratic numbers in the Blue Wall than Republican numbers. They're not predictions, but polls tell us who is ahead in the moment, and Harris is ahead at the moment in enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.

Occam's Razor suggests a Harris win to me - the majority of the hard numbers point to her and it's hard to imagine the set of overarching trends that would cause her to falter without further movement towards Trump. But that's not the whole story either.

[thequibblah]

wip tag!

i'm here at last! but in my defence, i couldn't spoil a surprise chapter drop through this post, right? ty for the tag @oyprongs @mipwrites @possessingtheproperspirit @emeralddoeadeer @isahorcrux (oh dear)

List the titles your top five priorities for WIP updates (link your fics for new readers!)

An upcoming scene, event, or detail in each fic that you're looking forward to writing

Bonus: make a poll for your followers to vote on which top 5 WIP they are most excited to see an update on!

Then tag 10 writer friends! (so sorry i will not be doing this. so sorry)

we are about to use an incredibly flexible definition of "wip"...

TITLES

come together ch. 53 — sickening number by the way. too high. this fic is too long

save me a place — IF i'm even working on it, it might be a sequel to a certain author favourite

unbecoming: a love story — whatever. prequel spinoff whatever if im doing it

untitled modern AU — i think i had a title for this one but i forgot it maybe. it'll come back to me. anyway i'll keep lily's role in it top secret but it is musician james i fear he's a bassist i fear he's launching his solo career

THINGS I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO

susan dennard calls these magical cookies btw that is how i've always thought of them :~)

chiefly, what happened on friday january 13th 1978? but there are a lot of consequences of 52 that will hit the characters like bricks, which i'm overjoyed to write — some of which have been in the works for 2 years, some of which i made up last month!!!! which is nuts if you think about it!! if i had written 52 in 2022 as i meant to, at least two arcs as of now would literally not have happened!

the first line being "It ends with a flash of green light."

i am very excited to play around in the world of CT outside of the hogwarts setting (and with a mature rating...) — there are a lot of minor characters and events i've been sprinkling in there for this exact purpose

this lily feels a little bit more blunt/cynical than most of of my lilys have been because she's been burned before. she's really going to take no shit from james (even more than usual) and that friction will be really fun to explore. i love their childish spats but i'm also interested in writing adult versions of them who can really misunderstand and resent each other. in my head this fic is the other side of the coin to iwnma, which feels very warm and dreamy and sort of rose-coloured; this is the cold-weather 2 am rainy version of that, with the same pressures of fame and personality and art and ambition but in two characters primed to argue rather than merrily embark on an affair.

this poll is a bit cruel to options 2 through 4 i imagine but:

i'm too late to this party to tag people i think. catch you on the next tag game srry

[moonshine-nightlight]

Potential Short Stories

hey, while looking to next year, i have a number of short stories I'm considering and i'd like to gauge y'alls interest in them and see if there are any that should move up my list.

these are all just the top ideas i'm considering at the moment and are subject to change when i get back to writing in Spring 2024, but i really want to know if any of these grabs ppls attention as often more interest in a story motivates me to write more!

see under the read more for summaries of each story in the poll

if ur interested in more than one, vote for your favorite and mention the others in the comments/tags!

See this post for a poll on short vs long stories!

See this post for a poll on long stories!

see below for summaries and minor details (titles subject to change - but i'm also lazy and hate titling things so maybe not)

Courtship Confusion: You’ve been working with Morgan for a couple years. A consummate flirt, you’d initially been put off by his whole charming deal, but now that he’s your best friend you’ve been wanting to see if he’s still interested in dating you. Unfortunately he’s not picking up your hints. Before you give up, a pair of visiting concubi remind you of cultural differences when it comes to dating. Maybe you’ve both been misunderstanding each other. Maybe it’s time you set the record straight.

Modern w/known non-humans, ReaderxMaleSiren

Quid Pro Quo: You’d thought the only remotely positive about your husband’s death would be that you wouldn’t need to deal with your terrible in-laws anymore. Then you found out that demons were real and your husband’s family had made a deal decades ago trapping all their descendants in service to one. You manage to set up your own deal with a different demon: if you help Adriel figure out who is embezzling from his realm spanning organization, he’ll help you figure out how to get your kids free of the contract. After hitting dead end after dead end, you finally think you’re both getting somewhere, but will it be enough?

Modern w/secret demons; ReaderxMaleDemon

Goddaughter: You thought you’d seen the last of your family when you left—you’d certainly done everything you could to cut ties with them and with your father’s enemies. Unfortunately, they finally seem to have caught up with you—running into you by chance in the grocery store of all places. Now you and your daughter have been captured, you’re tied up while they’ve taken her who knows where, your father is just as useless at protecting you as always. Then you hear a familiar voice. What on earth is your neighbor, Vee, doing here? Why does he know your father? And why does he sound positively…demonic?

Modern w/secret demons; ReaderxMaleDemon

Bedwarmer: When you heard your Chancellor had died in battle and his lands given to a mountain orc who’d practically won the battle singlehandedly, you weren’t sure what to think. When the steward put out the call for a bedwarmer for said new Chancellor, you figured species didn’t matter much after all—powerful people were all the same. Still, the role came with a year reduction in indenture for whoever was selected from the candidates. You’ve never had any problem with no strings attached sex so you add yourself to the list. It’s not until you meet this Kor’Shearda and are chosen that you begin to realize how wrong you were.

Fantasy w/known non-humans; ReaderxFemaleOrc

Runalong: Sometimes you feel like you’ve spent your whole life on the move. Shuffled from one place to the next with no real say in the matter. Is it any wonder that on those long car rides from somewhere that just started to become familiar to somewhere brand new and unknown that you might imagine a companion along side you? And what does it mean that now you’re an adult and you still think you see them sometimes?

Modern w/unknown non-humans; ReaderxGNSpirit

Feral: You’ve been so happy living on your own in the little house you inherited, you didn’t even mind the strange stipulations in the will about hanging plants and markings on fence posts. You were never particularly superstitious. Or you weren’t. Strange noises at night, eyes that glow, tracks around the porch—it’s all starting to freak you out. What could be lurking in the shadows of your yard? Is it all your imagination? Or does something—someone—mean you harm?

Modern w/unknown non-humans; ReaderxFemaleHellhound

[toasts-httyd-hyperfixation]

Alright i can't decide so y'all are fixin to do it for me

I have several things i wanna work on but i cant pick one to do so ive been doin none of em

Options are

Redoing the Httyd Timeline and Ages post i made a while ago. Its all mostly accurate and the things not explicitly stated in canon i still stand by, but i found a couple other things to add in, and overall its a lil messy cause its from when first started making longer posts, so it could just do with an overhaul to clear it up a bit

Im trying to go through and make a Full AU list, with Name and a summary of what its about, so i can actually talk about em here, as well as sorting all other AUs out properly. These were all talked mostly via the Discord Server, so its literally sorting through whats gotta be hundreds of thousands of messages from over the course of >1 year. Which its great because ive deeply enjoyed talking to everyone ( Shout out to the Discord Buddies, Love yall, you're the Best🫶🫶) but my god, i should have kept on top of it lol.

This one i don't know if anyone else even really is interested in, but y'all are getting it eventually regardless, because ya know you can't stop me from making posts here, no matter how much yall may want to sometimes (Toothfull my beloved <3). Anyway the gist of this one is, idk if its just me, but a lotta times when i hear ages in a book, i understand it, but it doesn't really connect. So i like to go and find other characters and people that are the same age, especially in like movie or shows, where i can look at people that are the same age and go "Holy Shit, they're just babies" or such as the like as that if they're older (Mostly in Alvins case, that man is not as old as a lot of yall probably think he is, or maybe you don't, who am i to say what you do or do not think)

Number 4 is essentially the same thing as number 3 but height related instead. I just like making visual comparisons for a lot of these things, cause it helps put things into perspective, as well as its nice for like drawing and stuff.

This ones just Goofy. I have several sillier ships that ive had over the years, some that just fall into crack ship territory. Some of them i do actually think would be cute/sweet, others are just for the sake of going "Could you fuckin imagine". So im making a poll, much like this one, with a brief explanation, and then yall get to vote on em. I dont know if itll be for the Worst, The best, Which One is y'all's favorite, i dunno, but its gonna be something.

And then the last one i can think of is, i really don't know how to explain it, but it's talking about how, in my opinion, the Vikings view of hiccup is being accurately portrayed? Like, that's a really bad summary, but i can't think of how to explain it better so, this is kind of a vague, mystery option

Anyways, those are the options i got for now

Im probably forgetting something but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Everything'll eventually got done

So with that said

[fandoomrants]

Ok, so as much as the Hunger Games scare and unnerve me as a concept, I really want to learn so many things about how they played out through the years...

Let's start with the first games ever. I wonder how long they took and what happened, who was the victor ofc, I think that in this exact case, all tributes had more or less equal chances as they didn't know what to expect, but most importantly, how did everyone else die? Did anyone actually kill another tribute, or the arena finished them? Because we already saw what's going on in the 10th games and tbh, yes, there was a group that was ready to kill and all but most of them were just scared and didn't want to kill/hurt. But they got to watch 9 games before that and already had an idea what was to be expected. And also, this arena didn't seem that easy to control as the ones in the 74th and 75th so what happened during the first games?

Then there's the First Quarter Quell. It's been a while since I read the books and I don't remember seeing in the movies but it goes around the fandom that the twist there was people from the districts voted for who goes in? How crazy is that? Tbh, if I have to number the wickedness of these quells, I'd say this is the worst, followed by the victors entering again in the 75th, and then maybe the most... Mild would be the Second where it was double tributes. Because yeah, double the trubutes is awful but... they're all endangered and 23 or 47 lost lives is... when it comes to having large number of victims, somewhat not that crazy. And only victors entering again is also so crazy and twisted, like, look at them, they're all mostly mentally or phisically damged but imagine being chosen not in some large poll with numerous other names in it but because people choose you?! Like, neighbours, people that know you actually looked at you and decided "Yes, they'll be the ones doomed this time." How did this one even go?? I've already discussed this with friends and we were trying to decide if some of the districts chose the ones most likely to win, or just the ones they disliked for one reason or another. But come on, it's crazy. Though, this might be eventually how the idea of Careers appeared. But I also wanna know the victor of these games because just imagine winning games in which people you know put you in? How do you get back and live... Not a normal life but some kind of life and you just know people you interract on a daily basis send you to your death.

And then, of course like most people in this fandom, I want to know more about the games of the victors we've seen. We have some of them discussed and shown in bigger details but still, maybe just a little more information and details about how exactly these games played out wouldn't hurt...

I just said earlier how the Second Quarter Quell was maybe the most okay-ish when it comes to the twist but this doesn't make it less tragic. And we first see Haymitch when he's older and he's... Well, a total wreck, dealing with alcoholism and all of that and you just wonder how this guy even won?! And then we later learn how he won and what led him to become the way he is now but still, it's pretty crazy that he won when there were not 23 but 47 other people. And yes, he "cheated the system" but I don't really think he was the first one. As I've seen people pointing out, so did Lucy Gray and so did Katniss and Peeta. And I believe others also found a way to just... Survive. And as I sae in an earlier post, who was his mentor? I think there wasn't one. And there were surely Careers in these games too. Wasn't the last girl he was left with a Career? So, this guy from District 12 managed to win a game where there were double tributes without a mentor even. And then he just keeps suffering and honestly, I absolutely understand him. Honestly, I think for all he went through, alcoholism is an understandable thing, I probably would have just commited a suicide or sth. And the more I think about it, the more I think the real reason he was punished and had his whole family killed wasn't because he "cheated" but because he was someone who was extremely unlikely to win and yet he did and this is what really made lots of people angry. He wasn't an "interesting" tribute.

And speaking of "interesting", here comes Finnick. Yet another victor who we know most of the details about but still. He's famous for winning sg only 14. Was he a Career? Was he just unfortunate? And his whole story with Annie. Did they know each other before her games? Did they fall before or after that? Was she a Career? I've seen lots of people commenting on it and how she might have been, even though she developed problems after that. Likee, it's one thing to prepare for the games and a whole another to actually be there. Yet this only makes me think that if this was the case, they probably became a thing after the games. I just can't imagine him knowing what it means to be a victor (him, of all people!), and actually supporting her decision to take part.

And on the topic of Careers, I really want to know how this became a thing. I have to admit, I somewhat see the logic of children starting to prepare and train for the worst but I can't fully wrap my mind around the idea of someone volunteering for the games knowing fully well that they have a very big chance of dying. No matter what, there's is only one victor always (with one excpetion but we know how bad this played out in the end) so to enter willingly games where you just know there are others who have trained for? And one of them is also from your district and you've most likely trained together?? What's going onn?

And how some of the tributes would form packs. I actually want to see how games like this one played out. Haymitch and the girl from 12 (I know her name but I won't spell it right) broke theirs because they didn't want to kill each other in the end but there surely must have been games where this was the case in the end. A group of people who had been hunting down the others together would have been the only survivors in the end and they must have had to kill each other eventually. How do you even kill someone who was your ally and you had each others' backs until this moment??

And I also wonder how many people had won similarly to how Foxface got close to winning. By just avoiding the others and survivng. And were they punished for it later too?

Also, when and how did the victors become public and famous figures? We saw Lucy Gray after her games back in 12, continuing her life almost as before (though we see this through Snow's eyes so I don't claim she didn't have a hard time, it's just that she was left unbothered, mostly). Then, the 11th Games is when the Victor's Village first became a thing. And the tours? Everything else? The way the victors would be used by the Capitol for the rest of their lives? When did this become a thing? I can't help but think this must be just another form of punishment that was implemented there. They survive yet they suffer for it in other ways.

I just really need answers and these are only some things on top of my head now, I might add to the list later...

If anyone is interested in indulging and discussing these or something else, feel free to DM me..

[sflow-er]

Results & analysis of the Finnish presidential election

By the narrowest margin since the direct popular vote was introduced in 1994, Alexander Stubb (National Coalition Party i.e. the main conservative party) won the presidential race against Pekka Haavisto (Green Party; technically ran as an independent) last night.

The margin was 3.2 percentage points - or less than 99,000 votes.

The first poll conducted after the first round predicted that Stubb would win 59 to 41, while the last poll released before the election was 54 to 46. Haavisto had the momentum and got the majority of votes cast on election day, but it wasn't enough to close the gap from early voting (which Stubb won 52.7 to 47.3).

Stubb's victory was largely decided by voters from urban settlements/townships, as well as rural areas. Towns/smaller cities were quite evenly divided between the candidates, whereas the bigger cities mostly went to Haavisto. Out of the ten largest cities, Stubb only managed to win four.

Map of constituencies & number of voters in each:

Support for Haavisto was particularly strong in Helsinki (where he got 57.7% of the vote), other cities with academic universities, the Swedish-speaking autonomous island region of Åland, and western Lapland (the northernmost part).

Stubb was strongest on the west coast (especially Swedish-speaking Österbotten). He also did well in the other cities in the Helsinki metropolitan area (e.g. Espoo and Vantaa, but also Kauniainen, the city with the highest gross income in Finland). And of course the townships and rural areas already mentioned above.

So what do we know about the reasons people voted the way they did? Well, we can look at a survey conducted last week, asking people who had already chosen their candidate why they wouldn't vote for the other guy:

Top 5 reasons not to vote for Stubb

His values: 51% of respondents

Doesn't bring the nation together: 39%

His views on foreign policy: 36%

Doesn't seem like a good leader: 32%

His political party: 31%

Top 5 reasons not to vote for Haavisto

His values: 45%

His partner [husband]: 41%

His views on foreign policy: 39%

Past political scandals: 36%

His political party: 35%

It's worth noting that both candidates have been known for their liberal values throughout their careers. Stubb represents liberal conservatism, which combines individual liberties with economic "liberties" i.e. minimal government intervention (low taxes and low regulation). Haavisto is a liberal moderate/centrist who represents the fiscal conservative wing of the Green Party; this means he's only slightly left of the centre.

In other words, their values really aren't that far apart, at least in the social/ethical sense! So, the answer likely has more to do with identity politics and the values that the candidates were seen as representing.

The elephant in the room is, of course, Haavisto's homosexuality. Sadly, that is still a dealbreaker for many people in Finland.

In a survey conducted during the first round, about 30% of all respondents said his husband was a reason not to vote for him, and the same was said by a disturbingly large 41% of Stubb voters in the second round. It also came up multiple times in interviews asking voters whose choice in the first round had been knocked out what they made of the candidates in the second round. People said they couldn't imagine two men welcoming guests to the President's Reception on Independence Day (a big televised event) or making state visits to countries where homosexuality wasn't as widely accepted (oh, the irony).

Haavisto & his husband at the reception in December 2023.

As for Stubb, he's always been an outspoken LGBTQ+ ally before. Which was why it was extremely disappointing when his campaign refused requests for comment on that first-round survey, citing his tight schedule. It felt like a pretty calculated move to avoid alienating these conservative voters. To his credit, though, he did condemn the result of the second survey very clearly in a televised debate.

Haavisto's sexuality wasn't the only thing that irked conservative voters, however. There was also the fact that he did civil service instead of military service.

There's been a lot of concern in Finland for a potential Russian attack in the future if they win their war of aggression against Ukraine. That's why we joined NATO last year. In general, both candidates had very similar views on security policy and our role in NATO, although Stubb was more hawkish about it and even said we could change the law to allow the transport of nuclear weapons as a deterrent (dealbreaker for many on the left, boon for many on the right).

By Finnish law, the president becomes commander in chief if war breaks out, and a lot of voters (especially along the Russian border) saw military service as a prerequisite for that job. Which is ridiculous. The whole idea is that the operations would be planned and the troops commanded by professional high-ranking officers, but a democratically elected civil leader should make the final decisions and unite the nation behind them. Haavisto has been awarded several military medals for his merits as a UN peace broker, for example, and even Stubb pointed out in a debate that it would be pretty rich of him as a Lance Corporal to start barking out orders in a military capacity.

And then there was of course their party background and the many ways that factored in. Stubb's Coalition Party is the current prime ministerial party with a very strong and active base (current support is 22.4%), while the Greens are a medium-sized party (8.2%). This was also reflected in campaign funding - the CP forked out five times as much money for Stubb's campaign as the Greens did for Haavisto. Stubb also had more big money donors, while Haavisto mostly relied on grassroots donations.

Both parties are pretty well established and also quite polarising to the "other side." The CP's policy of spending cuts + tax cuts is popular across the right and gets more and more unpopular the further left you go. The Greens' focus on climate change is extremely unpopular on the far right and in the rural areas, but extremely popular on the left and in the big cities. There's also a (largely racist) misconception on the right that the left wants open borders and condones terrorism. Haavisto's "past political scandal" was related to an operation to repatriate children of ISIS fighters a few years back - whereas Stubb had been gone from Finnish politics for a while, so his political skeletons (e.g. arrogantly lying to parliament as minister of finance) were buried deeper.

Now, differences in internal policy would have actually separated the candidates, but they weren't discussed as much during the election, because the president's official role is limited to foreign and security policy. Haavisto's experience in those was much more extensive and substantial, but Stubb's wasn't that bad either. They also agreed on most topics, which made for some boring debates.

Interestingly enough, when there was more focus on internal policy and people's everyday concerns towards the end of the campaign period, support for Haavisto increased. He found it important to show that he knew and cared about such matters, because the president is also a "leader in values." Stubb mostly tried to dodge and stonewall such questions because he found them irrelevant to the president's official duties, and when pressed for an answer, he came across as very privileged and glaringly oblivious.

But as mentioned, it was the other things that mattered more to the voters. The rural areas, smaller townships and west coast are conservative strongholds, and I guess they thought even a liberal conservative was better than a liberal moderate. Especially if the latter was also a gay environmentalist who didn't spend those all-important six to twelve months in the barracks.

So that was how we got President Stubb. A president who is presumed straight and has done his military service. A president with some foreign policy experience and a sort of hawkish NATO stance. A president who is liberal and will hopefully display those values more now that he doesn't need to worry about upsetting the bigots - but who is pretty far removed from the common people and whose ability to unite the nation and be a good leader is doubted by many on the left.

To end this on a nice and hopeful note, the candidates did their best last night promote that national unity. Apparently, they had agreed after their final TV debate that whoever won would come from the TV studio (where they would receive the result) to the other guy's event and address his supporters before going back to his own.

And sure enough: Stubb gave a short but seemingly heartfelt speech thanking Haavisto and his campaign for how respectful and constructive all their discussions and debates were, praised him as "one of the finest people he'd ever met", hinted at potential future cooperation in the field of peacemaking, jokingly apologised to Haavisto's husband for "stealing" him for the last few months, and encouraged everyone in Team Alex and Team Pekka to come together as Team Finland. Haavisto heartily congratulated him and wished him well.

So, I don't know. I remember how arrogant Stubb has always come across, and I remember his political history. I hate him for both those reasons, I hate his party, and I hate that the bigots got what they wanted. But I really liked his gesture last night, I like that he has liberal values, and I guess I may also grow to like his lack of interest in internal politics (the current president is also from the CP, and he has occasionally overstepped by voicing support for his party's austerity politics).

So, congrats and good luck to Alex Stubb, I guess. You're not my president, but I appreciate that you're trying to be.

[nerdieforpedro]

WIP Wednesday Game

Tagged by @wannab-urs @frenchiereading @megamindsecretlair @pedroshotwifey

Thank you all tagging me 🥰 You all know I always have ideas, the problem is usually follow through. 😂 and completion.

Step one: Post snippets of the fics you're working on (can be a summary if there's no snippet)

Step two: put them in a poll and let people vote on which one you should work on, then prioritize the one with the most votes.

Step three: Ask me about my WIPs! I've got lots of lore to share + more snippets, etc.

My March Spring Prompts! I’m really enjoying doing them this month. I’ve been trying to include as many different Pedro and Oscar characters as possible with some connecting drabbles. 🥰

A sample of part two of "The Lake between Us" (Thank you all for enjoying part one, I didn't quite expect such a response for it. Should I make a tag list for it? 🤔) Ezra AU x plus size OFC - name in future parts:

Things were tenuous at first but they worked out she’s to call him ‘Uncle’ or Mr. Ezra. It worked better in social situations and she became his little ‘Birdie.’ Scaling down the jobs he took on to mitigate risk was a challenge and were worth less but he had to live not only for himself now. The pair moved around some before he enrolled her in school in Louisiana but ensured that he taught her when she came home in the evenings and on the weekends. The child hated the extra lesions, but it enabled her to be leagues ahead of her peers as far as studies went. Ezra was determined not to suffer another fool and would do what he could so that Cee wouldn’t follow in her father’s steps of idiocy. The results of his care, diligence and support was realized at both her high school graduation which he had never imagined attending anyone’s graduation except his own and to travel with his charge to see the college she’d chosen.

Nuestras canciones (Our Songs) Santiago Garcia x Amalia (plus size OFC) @reallyrallyauthor liked my Santiago spring prompt for today so I felt motivated to finally write another part to this mini-series:

Santiago saw a woman by herself lost in the music, the glow from her skin from perspiration. He didn’t see a reason why he shouldn’t make his way over to her so he did, but he waited until she opened her eyes again and was surprised by him. She laughed and apologized where he told her there was no reason to. Holding his hands out, she peered down and slid her fingers along his palms. The last song died down and the next started, it was slower, sensual, intimate. Garcia interlocked his fingers with hers as they moved back and forth, step by step. His eyes met hers, pulling one of her hands toward him and placing it on his shoulder. His palm found a place on her hip as his lips skimmed her forearm up to her shoulder, pulling her closer. They didn’t say anything as they moved in sync. Once the music ended this time, they stepped outside so they could hear each other speak. By the time they finally exchanged phone numbers, the club was emptying out and Amalia looked toward her friends as did Santiago. The pair had spoken about the dancing, club, food, drinks, if they were single, music and a few bad jokes. Well, between the both of them, quite a few bad jokes. 

My third WIP is one that I choose to blame @mysterious-moonstruck-musings since she fancies herself a sweet Dieter. So I gotta deliver because this is what she wants apparently. 🤭 I have vibes and two paragraphs at this point. Basically, you meet Dieter through one of his PA (because he's got 4 or 5 personal assistants who keeps track?) and he finds drawn to you? Was it crocs? Was it pizza? Was it a two am dance party to Paramore and Linkin Park? Maybe it was all of them or something else entirely? I'll work it out.

My last WIP is one I've been kicking around for a bit. It's a WIP I have with Marcus Pike. I've been dabbling him after a shooting or passing his firearm recertification exam and having PTSD (because I haven't tortured a Pedro character recently 👀) This one is also vibes, still working it out. I started mentioning therapy in my March prompts and it snowballed into this WIP.

This is what I have this week. Poor Javi G's outline still isn't vibing with me. I am going to figure it out though. 😭

Let me know if you have any questions about any of them. 🤗

NPT: @maggiemayhemnj @magpiepills @morallyinept @inept-the-magnificent @covetyou @chronically-ghosted @for-a-longlongtime @legendary-pink-dot @gemmahale @schnarfer @romanarose @perotovar @soft-girl-musings @ramblers-lets-get-ramblin @tinytinymenace @alltheglitterandtheroar @drawingdroid @yourcoolauntie @trulybetty @hannibals-favourite-meal @thefrogdalorian @gasolinerainbowpuddles

[thethingything]

there are like 12 weeks of 2024 left so it's time to make a bunch of polls on Simply Plural to try and figure out what the fuck our new year's resolutions for 2025 are gonna be because ideally we should not leave that until the last minute and then get a ridiculous number of alters to vote at once on December 31st again.

I imagine a lot of the suggestions will be similar to this year's ones because we've enjoyed the ones we decided on, but it'll be interesting to see what we come up with. we're thinking about doing another Big Drawing but maybe going with 1 hour a week instead of 2.

we might also do something similar to Bread Quest but with a different category of food, but I'm not sure which one. Fruit Quest and Candy Quest were both suggested last time, and Cheese Quest could be an option, but we'll see what happens I guess.

after checking back, I've just realised we forgot about like half of this year's goals, but it has been a chaotic year so it is what it is. one of them was to pick a new species each week to learn a bunch of facts about, and we didn't do that but we've definitely learned to identify a fuckload of species so we did something at least somewhat related to that

[beguines]

On Tuesday, the AFL-CIO hosted its second annual "State of the Unions" Labor Day event. According to Liz Shuler, President of the AFL-CIO, unions are "on the rise," "battle-tested," and "building organizing capacity" like never before. Maybe, but what do the data really tell us about the health and vibrancy of organized labor in 2024 and its nascent efforts to reverse forty years of decline? Let's look at four key metrics: organizing new workers, collective bargaining and strikes, union finances, and labor democracy and governance.

1. "We're organizing like never before!"

"We're organizing like never before!" That's what the AFL-CIO says, but is it accurate? While data is not readily available for public sector workers, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) tracks the number of workers involved in union elections in the private sector. In 2023, approximately 93,000 workers participated in an election for union representation, up from 63,000 workers in 2022. And 2024 is on pace for approximately 107,000 workers voting on union representation.

The increase in union representation elections is encouraging, but if you step back and look at the number of elections in relation to total employment, the challenge becomes clearer. In 2023, the 93,000 workers participating in union elections represented just 0.09% of the 108.4 million production and nonsupervisory employees in the private sector. In 2024, the percentage is projected to be about 0.10% of all workers. In other words, only one-tenth of one percent of eligible U.S. workers in the private sector are getting the opportunity to vote for a union. This pace of organizing is not enough to keep up with employment growth, let alone meaningfully increase union density in the private sector (i.e. the percentage of all workers represented by a union).

Looking at the historical data, it's harder to support the contention that labor is "organizing like never before." The 2023-2024 election rate of 0.09-0.10% is just a smidge higher than the 2010 decade and significantly lags the average election rate of 0.17% in the 2000 decade.

But imagine if labor put on its seventies bell-bottom jeans and started organizing one percent of eligible workers as unions did in the 1970s, not the current one-tenth of one-percent rate. Instead of 107,000 workers voting for a union in 2024, the number would be more like 1.1 million workers.

Why isn’t this happening, given the upsurge in worker interest in unions? It isn't a funding issue, as labor has over $35 billion in net assets (see below). My take is that the existing labor leadership — many of whom have never committed to a robust organizing program to begin with — continue to believe that organizing is futile unless labor law is reformed. This entrenched belief is held even though unions are winning three-quarters of union elections under Biden's revamped NLRB.

Secondarily, unions are justifiably worried about obtaining first contracts for newly organized workers (exhibit A: Starbucks) and concerned that the NLRB is too underfunded to process higher levels of worker petitions for elections. On the last point, the NLRB budget is currently about $300 million, but the agency says "we really need over $400 million." The irony is labor has plenty of cash—$35 billion in net assets—to bridge the budget shortfall until Congress can pass appropriate funding.

According to the latest Gallup poll, approval of unions is at the highest level since the 1960s, yet only one-tenth of one percent of workers in the private sector got the chance to vote for a union. Labor should translate the popular support into action by pledging to give one million workers an opportunity to vote on union representation in 2025.

2. Strike Wave or Strike Blip?

Through June 2024, total compensation for union workers is up 6% year over year, while non-union workers have only seen a 3.6% increase over the same period. That's the good news.

The disappointing news is the strike "wave" of 2023 appears to be a blip rather than an emerging trend. In 2023, approximately 459,000 workers went on strike, including 50,000 UAW members at the Big 3 automakers and 160,000 SAG-AFTRA members employed by the entertainment industry. Through late August 2024, approximately 106,000 workers have been on strike, significantly lagging the 2023 total strike numbers. While additional union contracts are expiring in the fall—most notably the Machinists and Boeing—it is likely that 2024 will fall short of the 2023 strike numbers.

Looking at strikes as a percentage of the non-farm workforce, the Red for Ed strikes of 2018-2019 and the 2023 strikes were the largest strikes dating back to 2000, representing about one-third of one percent of the total workforce. However, as with the organizing data, the 1970s were marked by a vastly higher proportion of workers on strike as a percentage of the workforce, reaching nearly two percent of all employees. If two percent of workers went on strike today, roughly 3.1 million would be picketing. Attending all of those picket lines would surely be a travel nightmare for the presidential candidates and faux populists rushing to attend.

3. Union Finances: "Up-Up and Away"

While the organizing and strike data are not breaking historical records, union finances are another story. As I've written here, here, and here, organized labor continues to amass a staggering cache of cash and investments. Net assets (assets minus liabilities) grew $2.6 billion in 2023, from $32.7 billion in 2022 to $35.3 billion in 2023. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Affairs, union dues are up $871 million as of June 2024, likely continuing the trend of asset growth in 2024.

While labor's net assets have risen 225% since 2010, membership has declined by 1.8 million workers. I call this state of affairs Finance Unionism, where unions spend less on organizing and strikes than they bring in membership dues and investment income, investing the surplus in the financial markets.

No union has contested this data, and to my knowledge, no union has gone on record to explain the rationale for stockpiling assets rather than investing in organizing and strikes. Is any enterprising labor reporter in the house willing to ask the question (besides Hamilton Nolan)?

Union Democracy and Governance in 2024

Who makes the critical strategic decisions for organized labor? Who decides whether to invest union assets in the financial markets rather than organizing and strike activity? That would be the elected labor leadership. While the election of union leaders is formally democratic, the practice of union democracy is far from ideal.

As I've written here and here, the vast majority of top union officers are not directly elected by the members, and very few leaders face contested or competitive elections. In my view, the lack of substantive debate and member participation is a failure of democratic governance (for an alternative view, see this editorial). The 2024 conventions at some of the largest unions in the U.S. confirm this trend:

SEIU, 1,845,500 members: Mary Kay Henry stepped down in 2024 after serving fourteen years as president. April Verrett won the top position with 99.4% of the delegate vote. Many of the delegates to the convention were superdelegates — i.e., elected local officers who automatically became delegates without a membership vote.

American Federation of Teachers (AFT), 1,732,808 members. Randi Weingarten, the AFT President since 2008, was reelected to another term without any public opposition. Besides Douglas McCarron of the Carpenters (who has served for thirty years), Weingarten is the longest-tenured labor leader in the U.S.

AFSCME, 1,248,681 members: Lee Saunders, elected President in 2012, was reelected by the delegates by acclamation (i.e., no challenger) to another four-year term. By the end of his term, Saunders will have served for 16 years.

AFGE, 313,108 members: Everett Kelley, President of the union since 2020, faced a contested election at the convention, winning with 59% of the delegate vote.

UNITE HERE, 264,334 members: Taking over for President D. Taylor (my old boss), Gwen Mills was elected by delegates in an uncontested election.

Association of Flight Attendants (AFA-CWA), 45,500 members: Despite President Sara Nelson's endorsement of a resolution calling for direct elections of officers, the CWA-AFA Board of Directors voted against the constitutional change.

Of the large unions with a convention in 2024, only AFGE had a competitive election. The remaining unions—representing 5.1 million members and over a third of all union members—had no contested or competitive elections for the top leadership posts.

Labor Law Reform Version 4.0

With the relatively low organizing numbers and waning strike wave, what is the strategy of organized labor to reverse the decades-long decline? You won't find any coherent plan outlined by the AFL-CIO, but it is the same strategy pursued for decades: reform labor law. It was the strategy of the 1990s (the Cesar Chavez Workplace Fairness Act), the strategy of 2008 (the Employee Free Choice Act), the strategy of 2020 (the Richard L. Trumka Protecting the Right to Organize Act), and it is the strategy of 2024.

Of course, labor law reform is vitally important, and it should be labor's top legislative priority. But if Kamala Harris wins the Presidency, and if Democrats control Congress, Harris will have to overcome a certain filibuster in the Senate and wavering support from "moderate" Democrats facing unified opposition from employers. This is the traditional graveyard for labor law reform, but hopefully, a labor movement riding on a crest of popularity can transform the vibes into a legislative accomplishment.

The problem, however, is that labor's legislative strategy has an expiration date. As long as labor's share of the workforce continues to decline (5.8 million members lost since 1980 and counting), its political power also decreases. In 1980, one out of four voters was from a union household. In 2020, union households represented only 15.8% of voters.

Yes, organized labor should go all in for labor law reform, using every ounce of political capital to pass the legislation. To win, it will require subsuming the parochial political agendas of the sixty different unions to this one demand. But if the Democratic Party balks at reform as it has in the past, or if Trump wins a second term, then labor will need a backup plan. Ultimately, changing the political dynamic and forcing a new compromise between labor and capital will require unions to draw on their most potent source of power: workers withholding their labor and disrupting production and the economy.

[aseriesofunfortunatejan]

(view more detailed explanations of my suggestions in parentheses under the cut)

My idea is to write a fanfic as though BanG Dream! had a collaboration with a specific murder mystery franchise, inspired by the Persona 5 collab event, although probably a little more on the nose.

Other bands will be involved, but who should be the main band? Usually, events have one or two characters as the point of view. This would be my idea. (Typically, Arisa for PoPiPa, Misaki for Hello, Happy World!...)

Regardless, Hello, Happy World would have a major role in this "event". Depending on how I present it, I could make slightly different choices from the result of this poll (like not having the whole band there, but still having one of its members be the pov, for example, or going for second place if I can't make first place work), but I will definitely be looking at it for inspiration - especially if people share some ideas! Please don't let my suggestions deter you from voting for a band if it inspires you a lot!

Full arguments in favour of each band under the cut:

Poppin'Party: while this event might not exactly be horror... it would have elements that Rimi might be very fond of!

Afterglow: the same band who did the Persona 5 event! It might be fun to continue on that concept. They also had a Scary event inside a school, which informs me of their ~stress reactions~. Ran was also in the Kaoru-is-a-ghost reveal since she's such a scaredy cat.

Pastel*Palettes: I recently did their Halloween-themed event in which they all had to investigate a manor... Maya's role as "traitor" is actually what reminded me of this fanfic I had been thinking of since playing the P5 event.

Roselia: Yukina reminds of a character from that game I'd write the collab for, but then again, that character shares a VA with a member from Afterglow. My only other idea to push them as the pov is Lisa's inspiring sense of style...

Hello, Happy World: they would play a role in this story either way! In presenting it as though it would be an in-game official collab, having it as the main band would make sense in order to imagine the gacha/new costumes being theirs! One member in particular would 100% have a costume. Again, think Persona 5 collab event.

Morfonica: uhm... one of them shares a last name with a character from the collab game...? (At this point if you know that game at all, you probably guessed what I'm talking about, lol.)

RAS: I don't know, though I can imagine Rokka's writing pretty clearly, lol.

I am unfortunately not including MyGO!!!!!, though it would have been convenient numbers-wise, because I haven't had the opportunity to play events with them, so I'm not familiar enough with how they would act and speak in different situations. (Also, in case this isn't clear; I haven't done every event... I'm still on Season 1. I'll be referencing what I know!)