#a Donbas town

[redjaybathood]

Evacuation from Hirnyk, Donetsk region, 09.09.24

Source

[suratan-zir]

This is a frame from a russian TV report from Avdiivka, a town destroyed by the russian army.

The inscription reads: "The Russian world saved the Donbas"

They came and razed entire cities to the ground, killed a lot of people and left even more homeless. All for the sake of placing the USSR flag on the background of the lifeless ruins and calling it liberation. They really are proud of it.

[thegirlwhohid]

russia is not an agressor. russia only wants to protect russian-speaking from Ukrainian aggression. Ukraine bombed 'the Donbas' for eight years, after all.

You hear it a thousand times.

Well, take a look at this photo. Once upon a time, there was a district of the town of Chasiv Yar called 'Canal'. Now, it's completely erased.

Chasiv Yar, by the way, is a part of Donbas.

russia doesn't give a f... care for 'russian-speaking', neither in Ukraine, nor in russia on any other country. It uses them as an excuse to invade, exploit, eradicate, fill its inner war machine, and move forward.

These 'peace talks' end with nothing. russia just swallows part of Ukraine, grows bigger, and come back for more blood and soil. And, of course, it won't be satisfied with demolishing only Ukraine.

Because, as, the bloody butcher putin said, 'the borders of кussia don't end anywhere'

[mariacallous]

During the first months of the Russian invasion, in one of the frontline villages in the southern Kherson region, I met several firefighters – ordinary Ukrainian men in their 40s or 50s. Their prewar tasks involved putting out fires in the local wood or occasionally buildings.

Since the Russian invasion, they save houses burning from missiles and retrieve their dead neighbours. One of the men began to cry during our conversation. He left embarrassed, but shortly returned. I comforted the firefighters, explaining that even governors and mayors sometimes sob during interviews.

In the following months, I travelled from one frontline town to another. I met doctors, policemen, railway and communal workers, journalists, electricians, civil servants, government officials whose relatives are fighting and dying in the army. They escaped or are still living under Russian occupation, their houses and apartments destroyed. They acknowledged that they were emotional, often angry, horrified, but driven by a sense of duty. In the end this would help them move forward, and even be proud of what they did.

Russia invaded Donbas and Crimea in Ukraine in 2014; the country already knew what the war was. But since 5am on 24 February last year, all citizens have learned how to survive when a foreign army uses its might to destroy the peace. They have discovered how to act during an air-raid warning; how to live and work through blackouts; that they should not walk at night because of curfews. They have learned to forget about planes, as airports are closed, and how to be separated from family. People have adapted to many things, and also learned how to deal with emotions: that tears are nothing to be ashamed of. The initial shock and sadness have transformed into a bigger confidence and determination.

As for today – besides hope in victory, national pride, solidarity and compassion, which you see on the surface – one of the prevailing feelings among Ukrainians is guilt that we are not doing enough. In non-frontline towns and in Kyiv, life has returned to a kind of normal. We are preoccupied with thoughts of those who live under constant shelling or occupation. Those who are not in the army think of those who must fight daily; soldiers who survive think of the fallen. Those who left the country feel guilty about those who stayed.

I recently visited a standup comedy performance in a suburb of Kyiv. Self-depreciation is back following months when society was unable to joke about the war. One of the most popular gags is from a comedian comparing his efforts to those of soldiers and veterans. After Ukraine’s victory, he jokes, he would tell his children he spent the war sitting in an Odesa basement, tweeting that Nato should help by “closing the sky”.

Thousands of crimes have been committed by Russian soldiers on Ukrainian soil. The Ukrainian general prosecutor’s office says it has registered at least 71 000 violations of the customs of war. Since then it has become harder to talk to Russian colleagues. By colleagues I mean not propagandists, but just journalists who oppose the Russian invasion and Putin’s regime.

I still communicate with them, but many exchanges end with excuses about why Russian society can do nothing. They think that those who are against the war have nothing to do with the actions of their state. I do believe guilt is not collective, but shared responsibility exists.

Before Russia’s invasion I reported on totalitarian countries: Iran, Syria, China, Belarus. I understand how dangerous it is to protest in a state that is ready to kill its own citizens. The Ukrainians fought against this in revolutions in 2004 and 2014. In the end we built a government that defends its citizens.

It feels paradoxical that Ukrainians, who defend their homeland and are under attack, feel guilty for not doing more. Meanwhile, Russians who are opposed to war are uncomfortable speaking about personal responsibility, stressing that nothing depends on them. This can be explained not by a lack of empathy or bitterness, but by disempowerment and the detachment of Russian citizens. This is something the Kremlin wants from Russian society. Russians who oppose the war must transform their lack of empowerment into action, and find their strength.

Ukrainians have defended their country for 365 days without a break. They have saved many lives from Russian troops. Our task now is to transform a sense of guilt into a sense of duty. We need to preserve our strength.

[justacynicalromantic]

MARIINKA 2015 vs 2024.

And this is just 1 out of hundreds mostly Russian-speaking Ukrainian Donbas towns that Russians simply... obliterated from the map of the Earth.

[zogdon]

Despite Zelensky and Nato claims about their ability to still resist the Russian forces advances, in the East and in Kursk, the local reports from ordinary Ukrainians paint a different picture... The locals claim, almost in unison, that Zelensky's Nato forces are running away from key battle zones, and the Russian advances continue, of course at different paces, as the different battle situations demand.

In Kursk, the whole western flank of the earlies Zelensky incursion is now under Russian control, even as Nato is trying to spread the fight even further on, in western border regions.

It's important for people to know, that the Zelensky incursion was far closer to the border, than claimed by western media. For example, Sudja, the only town...but still only with original population of just 5,127...is only 9.6 km from the border. And at best, anywhere, in that incursion, Zelensky Nato troops didn't even make it further than 40 km, into Kursk. Even these measurements are rather fanciful, and only happened in 3 locations.

However, as the major Russian counter started only one week ago, already we see, and get local reports that the Nato forces in Kursk are collapsing...with many troops disobeying orders to stay and fight.. rather, run back into Sumi oblast, Ukraine.

Putin ordered the Russian military to clean up Kursk by October... didn't specify dates, though. So, the most generous interpretation would be: By last day in October 2024. Which, it already appears to be spot on... happening.

In the whole of the East, the Donbas area, the Russian forces are continuing the advance, without any visual impact by the Kursk battle. Zelensky Nato troops are in deep trouble... without any hope to stop the Russian aims, on all battlefronts. And that includes strikes deep in western Ukraine.

In conclusion, the Russians are delivering what they promised originally... even at slower rate, than some people would like.

But it's important to understand, that before the battle, war, not much is clear...in way of timing. As we don't know how deep, and well the waring parties have dug in, and prepared themselves, out of public sights.

For Russia, it was always clear though: No matter what; Russian Federation Forces will be again Victorious, but in this conflict, the mighty Russian Firepower, is very serious in spearing the lives of all civilians and minimising soldiers casualties... even of the enemy. And this is why, the Russian military has been going very systematically and very carefully...of course, that is why it's a slow war in progress...Of course, Russian Federation Progress. No carpet bombing, no clusters used...by the Russian side. However, Zelensky, Nato forces have no such restraints...they want to murder any Russian, anywhere in the world. We see the evidence of that attitude, everyday on our western news and media discussion services.

For World Peace to occur... Truly occur... Russia Hate Has to Go.

And Russian allies, like China and India.. plus other BRICS members...Myst come out Publicly and support the Russian Federation position. Stop thinking about their own pockets, so much....as these countries will lise it all, as the west has them as 'Next Targets', of Western aggression and re-occupation.

Only the Russian Federation is defending BRICS and all other countries under western attack.

And only the Russian Federation Nuclear Specialised Army, can protect any country asking for help against western aggression. China and India, both don't have the Nuclear military requirements, necessary to defend themselves. And that is why both keep Russia close, within pleading reach...if a major war was launched against them by the west.

The Chinese know it...the Indians pretend it isn't happening...ie. western aggression towards India....But both are blind to the truth...no matter how many western led organisations they join, the western main aim is:

Re-Colonisation of China and India.

But hey...the west is getting belted by the Russian Federation, every day now. So, China and India, are safe now, under Russian Federation Protection. As Russia wins, so do China and India.

And these 2 countries, better not forget it.

[myhauntedsalem]

50 Paranormal Creatures From Around The World

Baba Yaga – “In Slavic folklore, Baba Yaga is a supernatural being who flies around in a mortar, wields a pestle, and dwells deep in the forest in a hut usually described as standing on chicken legs.”

Santa Compaña – “The Santa Compaña is a procession of the dead or souls in torment that wanders the path of a parish at midnight involved in white hooded cloaks.”

Deogen – “The Deogen, or The Eyes, is a ghost that is said to haunt the Sonian Forest in Belgium, often seen in fog form and followed by smaller shadow figures.”

Strigoi – “In Romanian mythology, strigoi are the troubled souls of the dead rising from the grave. Some of the properties of the strigoi include: the ability to transform into an animal, invisibility, and the propensity to drain the vitality of victims via blood loss.”

Shubin – “Shubin is the mythological spirit of the mines. The legend of Shubin is distributed mainly in the mining towns of Donbas, Ukraine. The spirit is usually good, but can be wicked.”

Bhoot – “The common word for ghosts in Bengali is bhoot. In Bengal, ghosts are believed to be the spirit after death of an unsatisfied human being or a soul of a person who dies in unnatural or abnormal circumstance.”

Will-o’the-wisp – “A will-o’-the-wisp is an atmospheric ghost light seen by travelers at night, especially over bogs, swamps, or marshes. It resembles a flickering lamp and is said to recede if approached, drawing travelers from the safe paths.”

La Llorona – “La Llorona, or The Weeping Woman, is a widespread legend throughout the region of Hispanic America.”

Teke Teke – “The ghost of a young woman, or school girl, who fell on a railway line and was cut in half by the oncoming train. Now a vengeful spirit, she travels on either her hands or elbows, making a scratching or ‘teke teke‘ sound.”

Nyai Roro Kidul – “A legendary Indonesian female spirit, Nyai Roro Kidul is said to drag swimmers to their death.”

Herne the Hunter – “In English folklore, Herne the Hunter is a ghost associated with Windsor Forest and Great Park in the English county of Berkshire. He has antlers upon his head.”

La Planchada – “La planchada is Spanish for ‘the ironed lady.’ Her ghost appears in many hospitals, though mainly in the metropolitan areas, especially in Mexico City.”

Sihuanaba – “The Sihuanaba is a supernatural character from Central American folklore. She lures men away into danger before revealing her face to be that of a horse or, alternatively, a skull.”

Mae Nak Phra Khanong – “Mae Nak is a well-known and popular Thai female ghost. According to local folklore, the story is based on actual events that took place during the early 19th century.”

Naiad – “In Greek mythology, the Naiads were a type of water nymph (female spirit) who presided over fountains, wells, springs, streams, brooks, and other bodies of fresh water.”

Vodyanoy – “A male water spirit, vodyanoy is said to appear as a naked old man with a frog-like face, greenish beard, and long hair, with his body covered in algae and muck, usually covered in black fish scales.”

Chindi – “In Navajo religious belief, a chindi is the ghost left behind after a person dies, believed to leave the body with the decedent’s last breath. It is everything that was bad about the person.”

Ubume – “In Japanese folklore, an ubume is an old woman or crone, with a child in her arms, imploring the passerby to hold her infant, only to then disappear.”

Krasue – “The krasue manifests itself as a woman, usually young and beautiful, with her internal organs hanging down from the neck, trailing below the head.”

Lemures – “Lemures in Roman mythology are the wandering and vengeful spirits of those not afforded proper burial, funeral rites, or affectionate cult by the living.”

Patasola – “A female spirit from South America, patasola attracts men and lures them to the depths of the rain forest where she turns into a beast and devours the man.”

Jersey Devil – “The Jersey Devil is a legendary creature or cryptid said to inhabit the Pine Barrens of Southern New Jersey, United States.”

Wendigo – “A wendigo is a half-beast creature appearing in the legends of the Algonquian peoples along the Atlantic Coast and Great Lakes Regiaon of both the United States and Canada. It is particularly associated with cannibalism.”

Kallikantzaros – “A malevolent goblin in Southeastern European and Anatolian folklore, the kallikantzaros or its equivalents are believed to dwell underground but come to the surface during the twelve days of Christmas.”

Banshee – “In legend, a banshee is a fairy woman who begins to wail if someone is about to die.”

Estries – “Estries are female vampires of Jewish folklore that were believed to prey on Hebrew citizens, particularly men.”

Hell hound – “A supernatural dog in folklore, the hell hound has mangled black fur, glowing red eyes, super strength or speed, and phantom characteristics.”

Kelpie – “Kelpie, or water kelpie, is the Scots name given to a shape-shifting water spirit inhabiting the lochs and pools of Scotland.”

Bloody Mary – “Bloody Mary is a ghost said to appear in mirrors when a person repeats her name in front of the mirror and turn three times.”

Jinn – “Mentioned frequently in the Quran and other Islamic texts, the jinn are made of a smokeless and scorching fire and inhabit an unseen world, another universe beyond the known universe.”

Dybbuk – “In Jewish mythology, a dybbuk is a malicious possessing spirit believed to be the dislocated soul of a dead person.”

Bélmez Faces – “The faces of Bélmez is an alleged paranormal phenomenon in a private house in Spain which started in 1971 when residents claimed images of faces appeared in the concrete floor of the house.”

Incubus – “An incubus is a demon in male form who, according to mythological and legendary traditions, lies upon sleepers, especially women, in order to engage in sexual activity with them. Its female counterpart is the succubus.”

Hungry ghost – “Hungry ghost is a concept in Chinese Buddhism and Chinese traditional religion representing beings who are driven by intense emotional needs in an animalistic way.”

Buckriders – “According to Dutch folklore, the buckriders were ghosts or ‘devils,’ who rode through the sky on the back of flying goats provided to them by Satan.”

Resurrection Mary – “Resurrection Mary is a well-known Chicago-area ghost story. Of the ‘vanishing hitchhiker’ type, the story takes place outside Resurrection Cemetery in Justice, Illinois.”

Pig-Faced Women – “Stories of pig-faced women originated roughly simultaneously in Holland, England, and France in the late 1630s. The stories told of a wealthy woman whose body was of normal human appearance, but whose face was that of a pig.”

Domovoi – “A domovoi or domovoy is a protective house spirit in Slavic folklore.”

Bell Witch – “The Bell Witch is a poltergeist legend from Southern folklore, centered on the 19th-century Bell family of Adams, Tennessee.”

Bluecap– “A bluecap is a mythical fairy or ghost in English folklore that inhabits mines and appears as a small blue flame. If miners treat them with respect, the bluecaps lead them to rich deposits of minerals.”

Saci – “Best known in Brazilian folklore, saci is a one-legged black or mulatto youngster with holes in the palms of his hands who smokes a pipe and wears a magical red cap that enables him to disappear and reappear wherever he wishes.”

Krampus – “In German-speaking Alpine folklore, krampus is a horned, anthropomorphic figure that punishes children during the Christmas season who had misbehaved.”

Ghoul – “A ghoul is a monster or evil spirit in Arabian mythology, associated with graveyards and consuming human flesh.”

Kappa – “Japan’s kappa are usually seen as mischievous troublemakers or trickster figures. Their pranks range from looking up women’s kimonos, to drowning people and animals, kidnapping children, and raping women.”

Poltergeist – “In folklore and parapsychology, a poltergeist (German for “noisy ghost”) is a type of ghost or other supernatural being supposedly responsible for physical disturbances, such as loud noises and objects being moved or destroyed.”

Tikoloshe – “In Zulu mythology, tikoloshe is a dwarf-like water sprite. It is considered a mischievous and evil spirit that can become invisible by drinking water.”

Egg ghost – “A kind of Korean ghost, an egg ghost doesn’t have arms, legs, or a head, or even eyes, a nose, or a mouth. Legend says that when a person sees an egg ghost, he or she will die.”

Nang Tani – “A female spirit of Thai folklore, nang tani appears as a young woman that haunts wild banana trees.”

Matagot – “A matagot is, according to some oral traditions of southern France, a spirit under the form of an animal, mostly undetermined, frequently a black cat, generally evil, but sometimes helpful.”

Hairy Hands – “The hairy hands is a ghost story that built up around a stretch of road in Dartmoor, United Kingdom, which was purported to have seen an unusually high number of motor vehicle accidents during the early 20th century.”

[ukrainenews]

Daily Wrap Up October 3, 2022

Under the cut:

The head of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine has been released, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi

Ukrainian forces have broken through Russia's defences in the south of the country while expanding their rapid offensive in the east, seizing back more territory in areas annexed by Moscow and threatening supply lines for Russian troops.

Russia no longer has full control of any of the four provinces of Ukraine it says it annexed last week after Ukrainian troops reportedly advanced dozens of kilometres in Kherson province in the south of the country and made additional gains in the east.

According to a joint investigation by Associated Press and PBS, Russia has run an operation using falsified documents to steal Ukrainian grain worth at least $530 million.

(Map source)

“The head of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine has been released, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi.

Ihor Murashov, the director general of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, has returned to his family safely, Grossi wrote on Twitter.

Murashov was detained on Friday by a Russian patrol as he travelled from the Zaporizhzhia plant to the town of Enerhodar, where many of the plant’s staff live, according to the state-owned company in charge of the plant.

The head of Energoatom, Petro Kotin, said in a statement:

He was taken out of the car, and with his eyes blindfolded he was driven in an unknown direction,

The IAEA later confirmed it had been in contact with “the relevant authorities” without mentioning Russia by name and said it had been informed that Murashov was in “temporary detention”.

Murashov’s detention “has an immediate and serious impact on decision-making in ensuring the safety and security of the plant”, the UN nuclear watchdog said on Saturday.”-via The Guardian

~

“Ukrainian forces have broken through Russia's defences in the south of the country while expanding their rapid offensive in the east, seizing back more territory in areas annexed by Moscow and threatening supply lines for Russian troops.

Making their biggest breakthrough in the south since the war began, Ukrainian forces recaptured several villages in an advance along the strategic Dnipro River on Monday, Ukrainian officials and a Russian-installed leader in the area said.

The southern breakthrough mirrors recent Ukrainian advances in the east even as Moscow has tried to raise the stakes by annexing land, ordering mobilisation, and threatening nuclear retaliation.

Ukraine has now made significant advances in two of the four Russian-occupied regions Moscow last week annexed after what it called referendums - votes that were denounced by Kyiv and Western governments as illegal and coercive.

In a sign Ukraine is building momentum on the eastern front, Reuters saw columns of Ukrainian military vehicles heading on Monday to reinforce rail hub Lyman, retaken at the weekend, and a staging post to press into the Donbas region.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine's army had seized back towns in a number of areas, without providing details.

"New population centres have been liberated in several regions. Heavy fighting is going on on several sectors of the front," Zelenskiy said in a video address.

Serhiy Gaidai, the governor of Luhansk - one of two regions that make up the Donbas - said Russian forces had taken over a psychiatric hospital in the town of Svatovo, a target en route to recapturing the major cities of Lysychansk and Sivierodonetsk.

"There is quite a network of underground rooms in the building and they have taken up defensive positions," he told Ukrainian television. "This might be an understandable tactic, but it won't save them."

In the south, Ukrainian troops recaptured the town of Dudchany along the west bank of the Dnipro River, which bisects the country, Vladimir Saldi, the Russian-installed leader in occupied parts of Ukraine's Kherson province, told Russian state television.

"There are settlements that are occupied by Ukrainian forces," Saldi said.

Dudchany is around 30 km (20 miles) south of where the front stood before Monday's breakthrough, indicating the fastest advance of the war so far in the south. Russian forces there had been dug into heavily reinforced positions along a mainly static front line since the early weeks of the invasion.

While Kyiv has yet to give a full account of the developments, Ukrainian military and regional officials did release some details.

Soldiers from Ukraine's 128th Mountain Assault Brigade raised the country's blue and yellow flag in Myrolyubivka, a village between the former front and the Dnipro, according to a video released by the Defence Ministry.

Serhiy Khlan, a Kherson regional council member, also listed four other villages recaptured or where Ukrainian troops had been photographed.

"It means that our armed forces are moving powerfully along the banks of the Dnipro nearer to Beryslav," he said.”

-via Reuters

Russia no longer has full control of any of the four provinces of Ukraine it says it annexed last week after Ukrainian troops reportedly advanced dozens of kilometres in Kherson province in the south of the country and made additional gains in the east.

On Monday, the Russian military acknowledged that Kyiv’s forces had broken through in the Kherson region. It said the Ukrainian army and its “superior tank units” had managed to “penetrate the depths of our defence” around the villages of Zoltaya Balka and Alexsandrovka.

The ministry of defence spokesperson Igor Konashenkov said Russian troops had occupied what he called a “pre-prepared defensive line”. They continued to “inflict massive fire damage” on Ukrainian forces, he claimed.

His comments are an admission that Ukraine’s southern counter-offensive is dramatically gaining pace, two months after it began. Ukrainian brigades appear to have achieved their biggest breakthrough in the region since the war started, bursting through the frontline and advancing rapidly along the Dnieper River.

Kyiv gave no official confirmation of the gains. Russian sources acknowledged that the Ukrainian tank offensive had moved along the river’s west bank, recapturing a number of villages along the way, and threatening the supply lines for thousands of marooned Russian troops.

-via The Guardian

~

“According to a joint investigation by Associated Press and PBS, Russia has run an operation using falsified documents to steal Ukrainian grain worth at least $530 million.

The AP and PBS used satellite imagery and marine radio transponder data to track three dozen ships making more than 50 voyages carrying grain from Russian-occupied Ukrainian ports to the Middle East.

According to the investigation, the "massive smuggling operation" is being carried out by businessmen and state-owned companies in Russia and Syria. Some already face economic sanctions from the U.S. and the EU.

Russia has been systematically stealing Ukrainian grain trapped in territories occupied by Russia. The Kremlin had also blocked Ukrainian ports to prevent Kyiv from exporting its grain.

After the looming global food crisis drew attention to Russia's grain blockade, Kyiv and Moscow, on July 22, signed agreements to resume exports of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea.

Since July, Ukraine has been able to ship around 5 million metric tons of grain.”-via Kyiv Independent

[blueiscoool]

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A Devastating Defeat for Russia at Vuhledar

Russia has lost at least 31 military vehicles in their failed attack on Vuhledar.

13 tanks, 12 BMP-1/BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 MT-LB, an IMR combat engineering vehicle and others were destroyed or abandoned.

Ukraine just scored a major win in Vuhledar.

Russia’s widely-anticipated winter offensive has begun. Aiming to extend its control over eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, Russian troops are attacking north and south of Donetsk city.

In the northern sector, around the city of Bakhmut, the Russians slowly are advancing—albeit at staggering cost.

In the south, around Vuhledar, the Russians’ losses are just as steep—but they’ve made no clear gains that could justify the casualties. Vuhledar is turning into a meatgrinder for the Russian army, with enormous implications for the wider offensive.

The latest Russian attack on Vuhledar—a town with a pre-war population of just 14,000 that lies a mile north of Russian-held Pavlivka, 25 miles southwest of Donetsk—kicked off on Monday.

Seemingly a couple of battalions of Russian mechanized troops, together riding in a few dozen T-80 tanks and BMP-1 and BMP-2 fighting vehicles, advanced north.

The Ukrainian army’s elite 72nd Mechanized Brigade is entrenched around Vuhledar. It has laid minefields along the main approaches from Pavlivka. Its drones surveil the front. Its artillery is dialed in.

The Russians know this. And the assault force took rudimentary precautions. Tank crews injected fuel into their exhausts to produce smokescreens. At least one T-80 carried a mine-plow

But leadership and intelligence failures—and Ukraine’s superior artillery fire-control—neutralized these measures. The Russian formation rolled into dense minefields. Destroyed tanks and BMPs blocked the advance. Vehicles attempting to skirt the ruined hulks themselves ran into mines.

Panicky vehicle commanders crowded so tightly behind the smoke-generating tanks that Ukrainian artillery, cued by drones, could score hits by firing at the head of the smoke. The Russians’ daylong attack ended in heavy losses and retreat. The survivors left behind around 30 wrecked tanks and BMPs.

Vuhledar is further evidence of the downward spiral in Russian military effectiveness. Armies that lack robust recruitment, training and industrial bases tend to become steadily less effective as losses deepen.

Desperate to maintain the pace of operations, the army replaces any well-trained, well-equipped troops who’ve been hurt or killed with an equal number of new recruits—but without taking the time, or expending the resources, to train and equip those new troops to the previous standard.

So the army gets less and less competent even as it inducts more and more new personnel. Incompetence leads to even greater losses, which prompts the army to double down: draft more green troops, train them even less and hurry them to the front even faster than it did the previous recruits.

Apply this tragic model to Vuhledar and the Russian army’s failures make more sense. For months, the Russian marine corps’s 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades were responsible for the sector around Pavlivka. But the marines suffered devastating losses in repeated failed assaults starting last fall.

It’s possible both marine brigades now are combat-ineffective. Their replacement appears to be the 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade, a new and inexperienced formation that belongs to the ill-fated 3rd Army Corps. The 72nd MRB formed in Russian Tatarstan and, as such, includes a high proportion of ethnic minorities. Cannon fodder to the Kremlin.

Outside Vuhledar, the Russian 72nd Brigade met the Ukrainian 72nd Brigade—and got beaten at least as badly as the marine brigades did. If this is the best Russia can do after a year of wider fighting in Ukraine, its ballyhooed winter offensive could be costly ... and brief.

By David Axe.

[head-post]

Peace talks with Kyiv impossible after incursion into Kursk region, Putin says

By attempting to enter the Kursk region, Ukraine made negotiations with Russia impossible, President Vladimir Putin stated. Ukrainian troops have not demonstrated new breakthroughs, are losing scarce vehicles and manpower amid stalled defences in Donbas and the Kharkiv region, while there is still no understanding of Kyiv’s intentions.

Lost hope for talks

Putin held an operational meeting on the Kursk Region situation.

But what kind of negotiations can we even talk about with people who indiscriminately strike civilians, civilian infrastructure, or try to threaten nuclear power facilities? What can we talk about with them at all?

Commenting on the situation in the border regions, the Russian leader said that Moscow’s priority task would be to “push” Ukrainian troops out of the border regions.

By its actions in the Kursk region, Kyiv is trying to improve its negotiating position. The situation in the region shows why [Ukraine] has refused peace offers from Moscow and mediators.

Russia further mobilised

Military officials noted that 28 settlements in the Kursk Region are currently under Ukrainian control. About two thousand people live in the area.

The breakthrough of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region is 12 kilometres, with the front line stretching up to 40 kilometres. Of the 180,000 people to be evacuated, 121,000 have left the dangerous area, according to the report.

Russian Defence Minister Andrey Belousov also spoke at the meeting, where he named four conditions for success in an armed confrontation. Among those are: modern high-accuracy weaponry, new tactics using unmanned systems and robotic systems, an effective command and control system, including artificial intelligence, and improved training of military personnel, mainly commanders.

Current situation in Kursk region

According to Ukrainian media, the command is making tactical mistakes, such as persistently fighting for Martynovka, in which Ukrainian troops lost several armoured groups during the day. Meanwhile, the offensive in the town of Sudzha stalled.

Russian soldiers gained full control of the urban-type settlement of Korenevo, Ukrainian sources reported. However, reports vary from increased activity of Ukrainian troops to their complete standstill.

Some sources report fighting for the village of Snagost and in the north-east of the village of Kremyanoe. Meanwhile, the fuss about the capture of Beloe village by Ukrainian troops is believed to have been a provocation, according to Ukrainian media. Footage of a Russian drone strike on a cluster of Ukrainian equipment is circulating on the Internet.

Despite the tactical doubtfulness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (AFU) attacks on Martynovka, military experts note that Ukrainian soldiers are in serious mood, with fighting likely to be fierce in the coming days.

Against the backdrop of strengthening offensive efforts, Kyiv continues to pull down scarce equipment to the Kursk region. However, the move deprives Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk regions) and the Kharkiv region of equipment needed for defence.

Near the village of Giryi, locals spotted Ukrainian BTR-4E APCs (armoured personnel carriers). Ukrainian media reported that fighters of the Russian Akhmat Special Forces seized the APC and were transporting it to the rear.

AFU defence on other frontline areas stalled

According to Ukrainian media, Russian forces have taken control of the mouth of the Zherebets River, Donbas area.

In the Toretsk area, the Russians have also advanced between Zalizne, formerly Artemove, and the town of Niu-York, formerly known as Novhorodske. Ukrainian commanders also note a major Russian advance near the Panteleimonivka-Oleksandropil line.

In the Vuhledar area, Russian troops advanced near the Solodke-Vodiane road, at the intersection of the Kostiantynivka-Vuhledar road.

Global media not understanding Ukraine’s intentions

The Economist reports that the Ukrainian forces have thrown their most capable units into the Kursk region. Despite the rapid progress of the military operation, the results remain “inconclusive.”

On early evidence, the results are inconclusive. Russia has shifted troops from the Kharkiv front, but so far it has moved far fewer from the vital Donbas front.

A source in the Ukrainian General Staff also points out the tactical skill of Russian commanders:

Their commanders aren’t idiots. They are moving forces, but not as quickly as we would like. They know we can’t extend logistics 80 or 100 km.

According to The Economist, wounded Ukrainians complain of heavy losses from Russian air strikes.

The Guardian reports that Ukraine could try to seize the Russian nuclear power plant at Kurchatov near Kursk. However, the plant is more than 30 miles away from the current fighting. It is believed that it would be difficult for Ukrainian forces to get that far.

Ukraine’s leaders and its military have said little about the purpose of the incursion. It is generally believed to be intended to ease pressure on the eastern Donbas front where Russian forces have been grinding out advances.

With its actions in the Kursk region, Ukraine intended to strengthen its position ahead of possible negotiations. However, after Putin announced that peace talks were impossible against the backdrop of the Ukrainian incursion, many questioned the Ukrainian command’s intentions, especially amid Ukrainian officials’ statement of readiness for talks.

Read more HERE

[suratan-zir]

rambling about language, rats and dreams..?

Recently, for the first time in two years, I had to speak Russian. I had to remember how to speak Russian, or rather how to write in Russian. The things I do for love for my rats...

explanation for those who doesn't know me too well: I was born and raised in the eastern Ukraine (the so-called Donbas), in a Russian-speaking environment. Studied in the "Russian" school, which means that all subjects, except for Ukrainian language and literature, are taught in Russian. Everyone around me spoke Russian. People there can understand and speak Ukrainian, obviously, as everyone in Ukraine does. But it's not used in everyday life, due to the years of russification.

Then, as soon as we moved from Russian-occupied Donetsk, a few months before the invasion, we (my husband and I) completely switched to Ukrainian. We didn't want to have anything in common with those people. (and after the invasion, many Ukrainians also made this choice)

Anyway, one of my rats, Krobus, has a disease unknown to mankind. In all the years of keeping rats, I have never been in such a situation. Something makes it difficult for him to breathe through his nose, yet it is not a respiratory infection. His lungs are fine, he doesn't sneeze too much, doesn't have a runny nose etc. No antibiotics, nebulizer inhalations and even corticosteroids have any effect whatsoever. Vets specializing in rodents don't know what to do. Most likely, it's some kind of growths in the nasal passages.

After a lot of trial and error, incompetent and idiotic advices, I decided to contact our old and trusted vet in Donetsk. But I didn't want to explain to her why I switched languages, I didn't want to have any political discussions, especially with Krobus' health being at stake. So I had to write all the messages to her in Russian. And it was HARD. I don't mean like morally hard. No, plainly hard. I kept mixing up prepositions, word endings, etc., and generally had a tough time finding the right words.

You don't understand how huge this is. I don't know how to explain… Russian wasn't just a simple tool for me. I used to write poems and prose, long letters and essays. My favorite author was Russian. (Nabokov, probably the least Russian Russian but still). In my school years I was that one annoying girl whom the Russian teacher used as an example for others or selected for language competitions to represent the school/town. I know you can't tell that from my shitty English, because the teaching of English in Ukraine and Russia is generally at a terrible level, to the point that English teachers often barely speak English themselves.

Losing it, a giant part of my identity, one of my very few skills…it should feel terrible. But it's fucking amazing! Trying to speak Russian and sounding weird? Wonderful! Trying to write in Russian and forgetting the correct spelling? Fantastic!

In the modern world, learning new languages is a very common practice. But trying to forget a certain language? Now that's a somewhat unique experience that is now shared by so many Ukrainians. Not all of us give up the Russian language for moral or ethical reasons, although many do. And not only in order to correct injustice and the consequences of years of colonization. For some of us, the Russian language is simply a trigger for our trauma. It's a reminder of the pain Russia is subjecting us to. When Russian missiles fly over our heads, at least in they can't penetrate our minds. Eh, it wasn't supposed to sound this pretentious. Ew.

This whole language-switching thing confused my brain a little bit and now I dream mostly in English. So that's a fun side-effect? I don't know why not in Ukrainian though.

In case you're wondering, no medication is helping Krobus still. He feels and acts fine, it's not getting significantly worse for many months, but nothing makes him better. We'll keep trying.

[warningsine]

Officially, the Barbie movie isn't showing in Russia.

But unofficially…

I'm in a Moscow shopping centre. A giant pink house has been erected next to the food court. Inside: pink furniture, pink popcorn and life-size cardboard cut-outs of Barbie and Ken who are beaming from ear to ear.

No wonder they're smiling: the Barbie film is pulling in the crowds at the multiplex opposite, despite Western sanctions. After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a string of Hollywood studios stopped releasing their movies in Russia. But unauthorised copies are getting through and being dubbed into Russian.

Over at the cinema it's a bit cloak and dagger. When I ask one visitor which movie he's come to watch he names an obscure 15-minute Russian film and smiles.

To avoid licensing issues, some cinemas in Russia have been selling tickets to Russian-made shorts and showing the Barbie feature film as the preview.

Russia's culture ministry is not amused. Last month it concluded that the Barbie movie was "not in line with the aims and goals laid out by our president for preserving and strengthening traditional Russian moral and spiritual values."

Mind you, the cinemagoers I speak to are tickled pink that Barbie's hit the big screen here.

"People should have the right to choose what they want to watch," Karina says. "I think it's good that Russian cinemas are able to show these films for us."

"It's about being open-minded about other people's cultures," says Alyona. "Even if you don't agree with other people's standards, it's still great if you can watch it."

But Russian MP Maria Butina believes there's nothing great about Barbie: the doll or the film.

"I have issues with Barbie as a female form," she tells me. "Some girls - especially in their teens - try to be like a Barbie girl, and they exhaust their bodies."

Ms Butina adds that the film has not been licensed to appear in Russian cinemas.

"Do not break the law. Is this a question for our movie theatres? Absolutely. I filed several requests to cinemas asking on what basis they are showing the film," she says.

"You talk about the importance of following the law," I say, "but Russia invaded Ukraine. The United Nations says that was a complete violation of international law."

"Russia is saving Ukraine," she replies, "and saving the Donbas."

You hear this often from those in power in Russia. They paint Moscow as peacemaker, not warmonger. They argue that it is America, Nato, the West, that are using Ukraine to wage war on Russia. It is an alternative reality designed to rally Russians around the flag.

Amid growing confrontation with Europe and America, the Russian authorities seem determined to turn Russians against the West.

From morning till night state TV here tells viewers that Western leaders are out to destroy Russia. The brand-new modern history textbook for Russian high-school students (obligatory for use) claims that the aim of the West is "to dismember Russia and take control of her natural resources."

It asserts that "in the 1990s, in place of our traditional cultural values such as good, justice, collectivism, charity and self-sacrifice, under the influence of Western propaganda a sense of individualism was forced on Russia, along with the idea that people bear no responsibility for society."

The text book encourages Russian 11th graders to "multiply the glory and strength of the Motherland."

In other words, Your Motherland (not Barbie Land) needs you!

At the Moscow multiplex I'd found many people still open to experiencing Western culture and ideas. But what's the situation away from the Russian capital?

I drive to the town of Shchekino, 140 miles from Moscow. There's a concert on at the local culture centre. Up on stage four Russian soldiers in military fatigues are playing electric guitars and singing their hearts out about patriotism and Russian invincibility.

One of the songs is about Russia's war in Ukraine.

"We will serve the Motherland and crush the enemy!" they croon.

The audience (it's almost a full house) is a mixture of young and old, including school children, military cadets, and senior citizens. For the up-tempo numbers they're waving Russian tricolours that have been handed to them.

As the paratrooper pop stars sing their patriotic repertoire, film is being projected onto the screen behind them. No Barbie or Ken here. There are images of Russian tanks, soldiers marching and shooting and, at one point, of President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.

Patriotic messaging is effective. Barbie mania isn't a thing on the streets of Shchekino.

"Right now it's important to make patriotic Russian films to raise morale," Andrei tells me. "And we need to cut out Western habits from our lives. How can we do that? Through film. Cinema can influence the masses."

"In Western films they talk a lot about sexual orientation. We don't support that," Ekaterina tells me. "Russian cinema is about family values, love and friendship."

But Diana is reluctant to divide cinema into Russian films and foreign movies.

"Art is for everyone. It doesn't matter where you're from," Diana tells me. "And we shouldn't restrict ourselves to art from one nation. To become a more cultured, sociable and a more interesting person, you need to watch films and read books from other countries, too."

[mariacallous]

It’s been almost two weeks since the Ukrainian Armed Forces smashed through Russia’s border defenses in the Kursk region and began a surprise offensive that has advanced about 17 miles at its deepest point, according to Meduza’s estimates. Regional officials in Kursk have evacuated towns along the Ukrainian border, and more than 120,000 people have been forced to leave their homes. Vladimir Putin has met several times with top national security officials, but Russia’s president hasn’t yet bothered to make a national address, even though part of the country — a real part of the country, not just Ukrainian lands that Moscow claims — is now under foreign occupation.

At the same time, Russian troops are still attacking Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas, where Kyiv remains vulnerable after months of slow Russian advances. The world is watching to see if the Kursk incursion can force the Kremlin to pull soldiers from eastern Ukraine.

One of the most sensitive issues inside Russia related to Ukraine’s Kursk offensive is the use of conscript soldiers. To discuss the course of the Kursk incursion and to understand why sending conscripts into Russia’s new conflict zone is so tricky, The Naked Pravda spoke to RFE/RL journalists Mark Krutov and Sergey Dobrynin, who have tracked the war closely and recently wrote an article addressing how the Russian military plans to use conscripts amid Kyiv’s offensive in Kursk.

Timestamps for this episode:

(3:04) How Ukraine penetrated Russia’s border so easily

(9:10) Comparisons to previous incursions and Ukraine’s Kharkiv counteroffensive

(16:10) The role and impact of conscripts

(29:00) Political sensitivity and Russian public reactions

[theculturedmarxist]

Yves Smith asks:

What if Russia Won the Ukraine War but the Western Press Didn’t Notice?

She points to several headlines which, despite decisive Russian victories like its taking of Soledar, present the Ukraine as winning the war:

Nevertheless, Soledar has fallen and the loss of Bakhmut looks baked in, absent horrific Russian errors. The so-called Zelensky line is breaking even before Russia has put its recently-mobilized forces to work in a serious way. Regular commentators are waiting for the Russian hammer to fall, although Russia may simply grind more forcefully by pressing harder at more points along the very long line of contact. Remember one concern on the Russian side is avoiding “winning” in a way that leads to NATO panic and desperate action ... not that the Collective West’s fragile emotional state can be readily managed.

With that context, you’d expect some members of the press to have worked out that things are not going very well for Ukraine and the classic cowboy movie rescue of the calvary riding over the hill (here in the form of tanks and artillery) will be too little, too late.

Instead, the media seems to be trying to integrate snippets of facts on the ground with the heroic tale of inevitable Ukraine victory.

That is certainly correct for the wide majority of the stories, which claim that Soledar and Bahkmut, are irrelevant towns, but some pieces are creeping up that differ. A few days ago the Washington Post headlined:

Bloody Bakhmut siege poses risks for Ukraine

Ukraine faces difficult choices about how much deeper its military should get drawn into a protracted fight over the besieged city of Bakhmut, as Kyiv prepares for a new counteroffensive elsewhere on the front that requires conserving weapons, ammunition and experienced fighters.

Russia has escalated its assault in the area in recent days, unleashing savage fighting that has underscored the high cost of the battle. Russian mercenaries and released convicts from the Wagner group pushed into the neighboring salt-mining town of Soledar and inched closer to Bakhmut, the capture of which has eluded them for months despite an advantage in firepower and the willingness to sacrifice troops.

The piece quotes several Ukrainian soldiers which speak of huge losses on their side. But the U.S. is still egging them on:

The senior U.S. official cautioned against completely dismissing Bakhmut or neighboring Soledar as nonstrategic places that Kyiv can simply relinquish, noting that the salt and gypsum mines give the area economic significance. Theoretically, the Russians could use the deep salt mines and tunnels to protect equipment and ammunition from Ukrainian missile strikes. Moscow has also endowed the city with import.

“To some degree, Bakhmut matters to [Ukraine] because it matters so much to the Russians,” the senior U.S. official said, noting that control of Bakhmut is not going to have a huge impact on the conflict or imperil Ukraine’s defensive or offensive options in the country’s eastern Donbas region.

The official added, “Bakhmut is not going to change the war.”

I believe the senior U.S. official to be very wrong. Soledar and Bakhmut are bleeding the Ukrainian army dry. That is of relevance. Look at the insane number of Ukrainian units deployed on that only 50 kilometer (30mi) long sector of the front.

I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.

Zaluzhny has pulled units from other fronts like the Kreminna and Svatove sector further north in Luhansk province to feed them into Bakhmut. That has minimized any chance that the Ukrainian forces in those sectors will be able to make any progress.

What nearly all reports from Ukraine seem to miss is the huge damage that Russia artillery is causing on a daily base. Ukraine has little artillery left to respond to that and whatever it still has is getting less by the day.

A few weeks ago the Russian military started a systematic counter artillery campaign which has since made great progress. The typical western way of detecting enemy artillery units is by radar. The flight path of the projectile is measured and the coordinates of its source are calculated enabling ones own artillery to respond. But counter-artillery radar itself depends on radiating. It is thereby easily detectable and vulnerable to fire. Over the last months Russia deployed a very different counter-artillery detection systems with the rather ironic name of Penicillin:

Penicillin or 1B75 Penicillin is an acoustic-thermal artillery-reconnaissance system developed by Ruselectronics for the Russian Armed Forces. The system aims to detect and locate enemy artillery, mortars, MLRs, anti-aircraft or tactical-missile firing positions with seismic and acoustic sensors, without emitting any radio waves. It locates enemy fire within 5 seconds at a range of 25 km (16 mi; 13 nmi). Penicillin completed state trials in December 2018 and entered combat duty in 2020.

The Penicillin is mounted on the 8x8 Kamaz-6350 chassis and consists of a 1B75 sensor suite placed on a telescopic boom for the infrared and visible spectrum as well as of several ground-installed seismic and acoustic receivers as a part of the 1B76 sensor suite. It has an effective range for communication with other military assets up to 40 kilometres (25 mi) and is capable to operate even in a fully automatic mode, without any crew. One system can reportedly cover an entire division against an enemy fire. Besides that, it co-ordinates and corrects a friendly artillery fire.

The Penicillin system can hide in the woods and stick up its telescopic boom to look at and listen to the battlefield. As it does not radiate itself there is no good way for an enemy to detect it.

The system pinpoints Ukrainian guns as they fire. They are then eliminated by immediate precise counter-fire. As the artillery relevant part of today's 'clobber' list provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense claims:

Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised an artillery ordnance depot of 114th Territorial Defence Brigade near Veliky Burluk (Kharkov region), as well as 82 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware at 98 areas.

Counterbattery warfare operations have resulted in destruction of:

one Polish-manufactured Krab howitzer near Peschanoye (Kharkov region);

one U.S.-manufactured M109 Paladin howitzer, and one fighting vehicle equipped with Grad multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) near Lozovaya (Kharkov region);

one D-20 howitzer near Terny (Donetsk People's Republic);

two Giatsint-B howitzers near Maryinka and Orlovka (Donetsk People's Republic);

two Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers near Nevskoye (Lugansk People's Republic), and Preobrazhenka (Zaporozhye region);

five D-30 howitzers near Zmiyevka, Novokairy (Kherson region), Sofiyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Orekhov (Zaporozhye region).

Four U.S.-manufactured counterbattery warfare radars have been destroyed:

two AN/TPQ-50 stations near Mylovoye and Dudchany (Kherson region),

one AN/TPQ-36 counterbattery warfare radar near Ugledar (Donetsk People's Republic),

one U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-48 counterbattery warfare radar near Senkovo (Kharkov region).

Air defence facilities have shot down six Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Kremennaya (Lugansk People's Republic), Nikolskoye, and Petrovskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

14 rocket-propelled projectiles launched by HIMARS and Olkha MLRS have been intercepted near Udy (Kharkov region), Smolyaninovo (Lugansk People's Republic), Donetsk, and Khartsyzsk (Donetsk People's Republic).

One U.S.-manufactured anti-radiation missile has been shot down near Radensk (Kherson region).

One Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile has been shot down near Berdyansk (Zaporozhye region).

The above is the equivalent of two artillery companies (batteries with six guns each) eliminated in just one day. Ukrainian counter-battery fire against Russian artillery is no longer possible as the necessary detection equipment gets eliminated and as Ukrainian counter-fire is shot down by Russian air defenses.

This Russian counter-artillery campaign has been going on for several weeks. It has disabled large parts of what was left of Ukrainian longer range capabilities. Meanwhile the Russian artillery keeps on knocking down Ukranian troops that hold the frontline. Only when all parts of the Ukrainian trenches have been hit by intense fire will the Russian infantry move in to clean up whatever is left behind.

This form of battle is causing huge losses on the Ukrainian side while the Russian forces incur just a minimum of casualties.

In his recent talks Col (ret.) Douglas Macgregor put the deaths in Ukraine forces at 150,000 and casualties at 450,000. I, like Yves Smith, doubt that number of wounded is that high. As the system of Ukrainian battlefield extradition and hospitalization is in a bad state there will be less wounded and likely more dead.

In a huge contrast to U.S. waged wars, the civilian death count on the Ukrainian side is remarkably low:

Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential staff, said at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos, “We have registered 80,000 crimes committed by Russian invaders and over 9,000 civilians have been killed, including 453 children.”

Feeding more troops into the battle in the Bakhmut sector, as the Ukrainian side has been doing, is not a good use of resources.

We can state that Ukraine has by now lost the nominal equipment of two larger armies.

At the beginning of the war the Ukrainian army was said to have some 2,500 tanks, 12,500 armored vehicles and 3,500 large artillery systems. It is doubtful that more than half of those were in a usable state but they may have received enough repair to be workable.

The Russia military claims that most of those have been eliminated:

7,549 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 984 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,853 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 8,081 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

If one doubts those numbers one has to ask why the Ukraine has needed to import so many more weapons and is still short of them:

410 Soviet-era tanks delivered by NATO members in former communist bloc, including Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia.

300 [Armored/Infantry Fighting Vehicles], including 250 Soviet-designed IFVs from former communist states.

1,100 [Armored Personnel Carriers], including 300 M113 troop carriers and 250 M117s.

300 towed howitzers. 400+ pieces of self-propelled artillery, of which 180 is on order.

95 [Multiple Rocket Launchers]

There were also a number of fighter airplanes, helicopter and air-defense systems. The above was the second army, after Ukraine's original one was mostly gone, that has by now been nearly eliminated.

The Russian clobber list now regularly reports of combat with Ukraine forces that kills, for example, one tank, three armored vehicles and a number of pick-ups and motor vehicles:

One Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group has been eliminated near Liman Pervy (Kharkov region). The enemy has lost over 50 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, and two pickups. … [In Donetsk direction] over 60 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, three armoured fighting vehicles, and six motor vehicles have been eliminated. … Two AFU sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been eliminated in the area to the north of Levadnoye and Vladimirovka (Donetsk People's Republic). The enemy has lost up to 40 Ukrainian personnel, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles.

Pick-ups and unarmored motor vehicles should avoid the frontline and certainly not be part of force attacking the immediate frontline. If these reports reflect the current structure of Ukrainian forces, as I believe they do, than its state is indeed dire.

In his Economist interview General Zeluzhny has requested a third army to be delivered to him immediately:

“I know that I can beat this enemy,” he says. “But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs [infantry fighting vehicles], 500 Howitzers.”

As the Economist writer dryly noted:

The incremental arsenal he is seeking is bigger than the total armoured forces of most European armies.

The stocks of two complete armies have by now been destroyed in Ukraine. The resources for a smaller third one will be delivered in the next rounds of 'western' equipment deliveries during the next months. Russia will dully destroy Ukraine's third army just as it has destroyed the first and second one. It is doubtful that the 'West' has enough material left to provide Ukraine with a fourth one.

That then leaves only two options. Send in 'western' armies with the equipment they still have or declare victory and go home.

The neo-conservatives as ever favor the first option. President Joe Biden may still be against sending U.S. soldiers but this could change if he indeed gets blackmailed into doing it:

[A]s the ‘classified documents’ scandal gains momentum, the malleable president will likely fall-in-line and do whatever the hawkish foreign policy establishment demands of him. In short, the documents flap is being used by behind-the-scenes powerbrokers who are blackmailing the president to pursue their own narrow interests. They have Brandon over-a-barrel.

There is no evidence that this is happening but the signs are there.

The second option is to declare a non-existent victory and to forget about the whole issues.

But will the 'western' media, as Yves asks, notice any of this?

As commentator David correctly remarks at Yves' site:

I’ve said for a long time now that the West will be able to claim “victory”, or at least not defeat, by establishing fantastical victory conditions that the Russians never had and never wanted, and then claiming credit for frustrating them. With luck, this will just about enable western elites to hang onto power, at least temporarily.

"Putin tried to conquer Europe but we stopped him after he took only half of Ukraine," will sound like victory. But it is of course extremely far from the truth. Anyway, the media may well buy it:

But in the wider sense, we’re seeing the latest and most degenerate stage of the stupidity and ignorance which has afflicted the western media and pundit class over the last year. They didn’t know about the war in the Donbas, nobody told them Russia had the strongest army in Europe, nobody knew about the defensive lines in Donbas, nobody understood the seriousness of the Russian threats, nobody realised the Russians hoped for a short, sharp war to bring the Ukrainians to their senses, nobody understood why Russia went over to Plan B while it mobilised, nobody realised the Russians had been stockpiling weapons and ammunition for years; nobody knew what attrition warfare was …. In other words, the most disgraceful example of ignorance and stupidity of any ruling class in modern times. It will go on to the end, and “victory” will be proclaimed.

The war the U.S. provoked in Ukraine has been won by Russia even when no one wants to note it.

[beardedmrbean]

Russian families bade tearful farewells on Thursday to thousands of sons and husbands abruptly summoned for military duty as part of President Vladimir Putin’s new mobilization, while pro-war Russian nationalists raged over the release of commanders of Ukraine’s controversial Azov Regiment in a highly secretive prisoner exchange.

As women hugged their husbands and young men boarded buses to leave for 15 days of training before potentially being deployed to Russia’s stumbling war effort in Ukraine, there were signs of mounting public anger over the mobilization, which is supposed to call up 300,000 reservists or more.

More than 1,300 people were arrested at anti-mobilization protests in cities and towns across Russia on Wednesday and Thursday, in the largest public protests since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed reports of booked-out flights and queues to leave Russia as “false information.”

“The information about a certain feverish situation in airports is very much exaggerated,” Peskov insisted during his daily conference call with reporters on Thursday.

But there were other signs of increased public pushback against Putin and his war, despite the Kremlin’s harsh crackdown on dissent.

In the city of Togliatti, a military commissariat, or local military recruitment and draft office, was set on fire, one of dozens of similar attacks across Russia in recent months, indicating the depth of antipathy to military recruitment efforts.

Russia’s pro-war far right, meanwhile, had a different cause for fury: a prisoner exchange that freed the Azov commanders long branded by Russia as “Nazis” in return for dozens of prisoners held in Ukraine including Viktor Medvedchuk, reputed to be Putin’s closest Ukrainian friend and the leader of Ukraine’s main pro-Kremlin political party, which was banned by Ukrainian authorities in June.

The dual backlash over mobilization and the prisoner exchange showed Putin facing his most acute crisis since the he launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Not only is his country grappling with punishing economic sanctions imposed by the West, but his military has suffered dramatic setbacks, including an embarrassing retreat from the northeastern Kharkiv region. As mobilization begins in Russia, sold-out flights, protests and arrests

With his options diminishing, Putin has taken increasingly perilous decisions, including the partial mobilization, which risks swinging public sentiment against the war. In a national address Wednesday, Putin also proclaimed his support for steps toward annexing four Ukrainian regions that he does not fully control militarily or politically, which risks fierce fighting and potentially humiliating defeat.

Putin also used his speech to make a thinly veiled threat that Russia would use nuclear weapons. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, now the deputy head of the country’s Security Council, reiterated that threat on Thursday and upped the ante, specifically warning that Russia would be willing to use “strategic nuclear weapons” to protect any Ukrainian territories absorbed by Moscow.

“Referendums will be held, and the Donbas republics and other territories will be accepted into Russia,” Medvedev posted on Telegram on Thursday, adding that the Russian armed forces would protect those territories.

“Russia announced that not only mobilization capabilities but also any Russian weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons … could be used for such protection,” he wrote.

In New York, where world leaders are gathered for the annual General Assembly meetings, leaders of Western powers, including President Biden, swiftly denounced Putin’s annexation plans and called on Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, delivering an address to the United Nations by video, insisted on Wednesday night that his country would not surrender territory and that Russia must be punished.

“Ukraine demands punishment for trying to steal our territory,” Zelensky said. “Punishment for the murders of thousands of people. Punishment for tortures and humiliations of women and men.”

The secretive prisoner exchange deal, announced Wednesday night and involving the mediation of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, created the latest pressure on Putin at home.

The details were so toxic that the Kremlin distanced itself from the exchange and Russia’s Ministry of Defense did not outline them, except to confirm 55 Russian and pro-Russian Ukrainian soldiers were swapped.

Medvedchuk, who was chief of staff to Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma from 2002 to 2005 and has long played a Machiavellian role in Ukrainian politics, reportedly controlled several pro-Kremlin Ukrainian television stations, shut down by Zelensky in February 2021.

Medvedchuk was seen as a potential Kremlin choice as a puppet Ukrainian president before the failure of Moscow’s effort to seize Kyiv and topple Zelensky’s elected government. But Medvedchuk is mainly known as a close friend of Putin. The Russian leader is the godfather of Medvedchuk’s daughter and has also visited Medvedchuk’s palatial mansion in Crimea.

Asked whether Medvedchuk had been freed, Peskov said: “I can’t comment on the prisoner exchange. I don’t have powers to do so.” Americans freed in sprawling Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange

The Russian Defense Ministry statement, issued many hours after Ukrainian officials published the details in the early hours of Thursday, similarly did not mention Medvedchuk.

“As a result of the complex exchange negotiation process, 55 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Russia and the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, who were in mortal danger while in captivity, were returned tonight from Kiev-controlled territory in Ukraine,” the statement said.

Eventually Denis Pushilin, Moscow’s puppet leader in a self-declared separatist area of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, confirmed that he had signed the decree on the exchange for 50 Russian servicemen, five pro-Russian fighters from Ukraine and Medvedchuk.

Sending Russian men to fight in a war to “denazify” Ukraine, at the same time as releasing the Azov commanders and fighters, was difficult for Russia to explain — given that, for years, Kremlin propaganda has portrayed the Azov group as fanatical terrorists and “Nazi” ringleaders who must be destroyed.

The exchange deal took place “in difficult circumstances,” Pushilin told Russian state television. “We gave them 215 people, including nationalistic battalion fighters. They are war criminals. We were perfectly aware of that, but our goal was to bring our guys back as soon as possible,” in comments that only underscored the controversy.

The Russian prisoners were flown to Chkalovsky military air base in the early hours of Thursday and arrived to no fanfare or heroes’ welcome.

Hard-line nationalists branded the exchange as a betrayal that undercut the reason for the war, on the same day Russia was calling up men to fight.

Among the toughest far-right critics of the Russian military approach — for being too soft — is Igor Girkin, a former Russian FSB agent who commanded Moscow proxy fighters in 2014. He called the exchange of the Azov fighters “treason,” in a post on social media Thursday, blaming “as yet unidentified persons from the top leadership of the Russian Federation.”

The release, on the same day Russians were being called up to fight, was “worse than a crime and worse than a mistake. This is INCREDIBLE STUPIDITY,” he complained. (Girkin is being tried in absentia by a court in The Hague over the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014.)

Putin had been relying on public apathy and lack of interest in the war but now faces rising anger over the mobilization of reservists, even though he stopped short of declaring a full national draft. Putin drafts up to 300,000 reservists, backs annexation amid war losses

Some protesters who were arrested while demonstrating against mobilization were handed military summonses at police stations late Wednesday in a practice that appeared designed to deter further protests, especially by fighting-age men. Peskov said it was perfectly legal. “It does not contravene the law. Therefore, there is no violation of the law,” he said.

In Chechnya, the regional dictator and close Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov declared that anyone who opposed mobilization was an enemy of the people, after a small protest by around 20 women in the capital of Grozny on Wednesday. Kadyrov threatened to send the husbands of the protesters to fight in Ukraine, local media outlet Caucasian Knot reported.

Questions and fears over the mobilization swirled on Thursday, with doubts about who would escape being called up and who would be forced to fight.

The role of Peskov’s own son Nikolai Peskov underscored Russian suspicions that wealthy and politically connected figures invariably escape military service, with Russian wars fought largely by men from impoverished regions far from Moscow.

Nikolai Peskov was less than enthusiastic about the idea he could be sent to fight when he was phoned Wednesday by Dmitry Nizovtsev, a member of the team of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny and an opposition YouTube channel anchor. Nizovtsev, posing as a military official, demanded that the younger Peskov appear at a local military commissariat the following day at 10 a.m.

“Obviously I won’t come tomorrow at 10 a.m.,” Nikolai Peskov said. “You have to understand that I am Mr. Peskov and it’s not exactly right for me to be there. In short, I will solve this on another level.”

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, confirmed his son was phoned, but insisted that his comments were not conveyed in full.

Alexei Mishustin, son of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, was also called and told Nizovtsev he was “not planning to serve in the army” and believed himself to be exempt because he was doing a master’s degree.

Natalia Abbakamova in Riga, Latvia, contributed to this report.