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Emergent charge order brings new physics in pressurized kagome superconductor
Superconductors lose their electrical resistance when cooled below a certain threshold temperature. With their promising application future as well as glamorous physical mechanisms, superconductors appeal to numerous scientists dedicated to this field.
A research team led by Prof. Chen Xianhui from the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences recently reported an emergent charge order competing with superconductivity in the pressurized kagome superconductor CsV3Sb5 by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) measurements in a study published in Nature.
The interplay between different ordering tendencies in superconducting materials is complicated. Recently, "intertwined orders" have been proposed from a different perspective that focuses on the cooperation of different orders. One key in this field is to explore the underlying physics of intertwined orders. The discovery of several electronic orders in the kagome superconductors AV3Sb5 (A means K, Rb, Cs) provides a promising platform.
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thatshuffle · 1 year
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A point-to-point long-distance quantum key distribution (QKD) over a distance of 1,002 km has been achieved by scientists from the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), and their collaborators from Tsinghua University, Jinan Institute of Quantum Technology, and Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology (SIMIT), CAS. This milestone not only sets a new world record for non-relay QKD but also provides a solution for high-speed intercity quantum communication. The results were published in Physical Review Letters on May 25th.
QKD is based on the principles of quantum mechanics and enables secure key distribution between two remote parties. When combined with the "one-time pad" encryption method, it can achieve the highest level of security for confidential communication. However, the distance of QKD has been limited by factors such as the channel loss and system noise.
The twin-field QKD (TF-QKD) using sending-or-not-sending (SNS) protocol was demonstrated in the experiment, improving the relation between the key rate and channel transmittance from a linear η to its square root η. Therefore, it can achieve a much longer secure distance than traditional QKD protocols.
To achieve long-distance QKD, the research team collaborated with Yangtze Optical Fiber and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company (YOFC) and used ultra-low-loss fiber based on pure silica core technology, which achieved a maximum attenuation of 0.16 dB/km. SIMIT developed ultra-low-noise superconducting single-photon detectors.
By implementing multiple filters at temperatures of 40 K and 2.2 K to suppress dark counts caused by thermal radiation, the noise of the single-photon detectors was reduced to around 0.02 cps. Furthermore, the team also developed a dual-band phase estimation scheme to avoid the spontaneous Raman scattering noise, reducing the system noise to below 0.01 Hz.
Based on the aforementioned technological developments, the team achieved TF-QKD over a record distance of 1,002 km, with a key rate of 0.0034 bps. This work not only verifies the feasibility of the SNS-TF-QKD scheme at extremely long distances but also demonstrates that this protocol can achieve high key rates in many practical scenarios.
The success of this study holds significant implications for the advancement of secure quantum communication. It opens up new possibilities for long-distance quantum key distribution and paves the way for the realization of high-speed intercity quantum communication networks.
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joytherabbit · 4 months
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jcmarchi · 26 days
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Study: Transparency is often lacking in datasets used to train large language models
New Post has been published on https://thedigitalinsider.com/study-transparency-is-often-lacking-in-datasets-used-to-train-large-language-models/
Study: Transparency is often lacking in datasets used to train large language models
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In order to train more powerful large language models, researchers use vast dataset collections that blend diverse data from thousands of web sources.
But as these datasets are combined and recombined into multiple collections, important information about their origins and restrictions on how they can be used are often lost or confounded in the shuffle.
Not only does this raise legal and ethical concerns, it can also damage a model’s performance. For instance, if a dataset is miscategorized, someone training a machine-learning model for a certain task may end up unwittingly using data that are not designed for that task.
In addition, data from unknown sources could contain biases that cause a model to make unfair predictions when deployed.
To improve data transparency, a team of multidisciplinary researchers from MIT and elsewhere launched a systematic audit of more than 1,800 text datasets on popular hosting sites. They found that more than 70 percent of these datasets omitted some licensing information, while about 50 percent had information that contained errors.
Building off these insights, they developed a user-friendly tool called the Data Provenance Explorer that automatically generates easy-to-read summaries of a dataset’s creators, sources, licenses, and allowable uses.
“These types of tools can help regulators and practitioners make informed decisions about AI deployment, and further the responsible development of AI,” says Alex “Sandy” Pentland, an MIT professor, leader of the Human Dynamics Group in the MIT Media Lab, and co-author of a new open-access paper about the project.
The Data Provenance Explorer could help AI practitioners build more effective models by enabling them to select training datasets that fit their model’s intended purpose. In the long run, this could improve the accuracy of AI models in real-world situations, such as those used to evaluate loan applications or respond to customer queries.
“One of the best ways to understand the capabilities and limitations of an AI model is understanding what data it was trained on. When you have misattribution and confusion about where data came from, you have a serious transparency issue,” says Robert Mahari, a graduate student in the MIT Human Dynamics Group, a JD candidate at Harvard Law School, and co-lead author on the paper.
Mahari and Pentland are joined on the paper by co-lead author Shayne Longpre, a graduate student in the Media Lab; Sara Hooker, who leads the research lab Cohere for AI; as well as others at MIT, the University of California at Irvine, the University of Lille in France, the University of Colorado at Boulder, Olin College, Carnegie Mellon University, Contextual AI, ML Commons, and Tidelift. The research is published today in Nature Machine Intelligence.
Focus on finetuning
Researchers often use a technique called fine-tuning to improve the capabilities of a large language model that will be deployed for a specific task, like question-answering. For finetuning, they carefully build curated datasets designed to boost a model’s performance for this one task.
The MIT researchers focused on these fine-tuning datasets, which are often developed by researchers, academic organizations, or companies and licensed for specific uses.
When crowdsourced platforms aggregate such datasets into larger collections for practitioners to use for fine-tuning, some of that original license information is often left behind.
“These licenses ought to matter, and they should be enforceable,” Mahari says.
For instance, if the licensing terms of a dataset are wrong or missing, someone could spend a great deal of money and time developing a model they might be forced to take down later because some training data contained private information.
“People can end up training models where they don’t even understand the capabilities, concerns, or risk of those models, which ultimately stem from the data,” Longpre adds.
To begin this study, the researchers formally defined data provenance as the combination of a dataset’s sourcing, creating, and licensing heritage, as well as its characteristics. From there, they developed a structured auditing procedure to trace the data provenance of more than 1,800 text dataset collections from popular online repositories.
After finding that more than 70 percent of these datasets contained “unspecified” licenses that omitted much information, the researchers worked backward to fill in the blanks. Through their efforts, they reduced the number of datasets with “unspecified” licenses to around 30 percent.
Their work also revealed that the correct licenses were often more restrictive than those assigned by the repositories.   
In addition, they found that nearly all dataset creators were concentrated in the global north, which could limit a model’s capabilities if it is trained for deployment in a different region. For instance, a Turkish language dataset created predominantly by people in the U.S. and China might not contain any culturally significant aspects, Mahari explains.
“We almost delude ourselves into thinking the datasets are more diverse than they actually are,” he says.
Interestingly, the researchers also saw a dramatic spike in restrictions placed on datasets created in 2023 and 2024, which might be driven by concerns from academics that their datasets could be used for unintended commercial purposes.
A user-friendly tool
To help others obtain this information without the need for a manual audit, the researchers built the Data Provenance Explorer. In addition to sorting and filtering datasets based on certain criteria, the tool allows users to download a data provenance card that provides a succinct, structured overview of dataset characteristics.
“We are hoping this is a step, not just to understand the landscape, but also help people going forward to make more informed choices about what data they are training on,” Mahari says.
In the future, the researchers want to expand their analysis to investigate data provenance for multimodal data, including video and speech. They also want to study how terms of service on websites that serve as data sources are echoed in datasets.
As they expand their research, they are also reaching out to regulators to discuss their findings and the unique copyright implications of fine-tuning data.
“We need data provenance and transparency from the outset, when people are creating and releasing these datasets, to make it easier for others to derive these insights,” Longpre says.
“Many proposed policy interventions assume that we can correctly assign and identify licenses associated with data, and this work first shows that this is not the case, and then significantly improves the provenance information available,” says Stella Biderman, executive director of EleutherAI, who was not involved with this work. “In addition, section 3 contains relevant legal discussion. This is very valuable to machine learning practitioners outside companies large enough to have dedicated legal teams. Many people who want to build AI systems for public good are currently quietly struggling to figure out how to handle data licensing, because the internet is not designed in a way that makes data provenance easy to figure out.”
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spacenutspod · 9 months
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Astronomy Daily's Year-End Extravaganza! This episode of Astronomy Daily is packed with exciting space news, marking the end of 2023 with a bang!
Dream Chaser Takes Flight: Get ready for the first flight of Sierra Space's Dream Chaser spacecraft in 2024! Learn about its environmental testing and its role in transporting astronauts and cargo to the International Space Station.
Long March Reaches New Heights: China's Long March 5th rocket sets a new record with its extended fairing, boosting its capacity to carry larger payloads like the Yao-Gon 41 remote sensing satellite.
Listening to the Stars: Delve into the fascinating world of asterosysmology, where astronomers "listen" to the vibrations of stars to measure their distances with incredible accuracy. This technique helps calibrate data from ESA's Gaia mission and opens doors to understanding our place in the universe.
Bonus: Catch up on SpaceX's upcoming Falcon Heavy launch carrying the mysterious X-37B space plane and learn about its potential role in testing new space technologies.
For more Astronomy Daily the Podcast and to sign up for the daily newsletter, visit www.astronomydaily.io
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xtruss · 1 year
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Washington Will Grow Increasingly Agitated As Its ‘Whack-A-Mole’ Containment Policy Exhausts
— Ding Gang | August 02 2023
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Illustration: Chen Xia/Global Times
Many people enjoy playing the arcade game Whack-A-Mole. This game is characterized by the fact that, although you will get a high score in the allotted time, there will never be a complete victory, and the game seems to come to its end once the player is exhausted.
Washington's "Whack-A-Mole" containment policy is similar to a race against time, but time is clearly not on its side. The US is increasingly agitated by the exhaustion of such a policy.
China's manufacturing breakthroughs in various aspects are snowballing. The US is now facing not just one or a few major competitors, but rather a multitude of middleweight players that have quickly upgraded to heavyweight status.
Breakthroughs have occurred, from low-end toys and small electric appliances to high-end medical and mechanical equipment. Some of these breakthroughs are chip-related, but many more are chip-unrelated or use chips that China can manufacture independently.
I doubt whether the US has the "stamina" to continue to deal with the new battlefields popping up in all directions and engage in the no-end "war of science and technology."
According to the Biden administration's containment policy, there should be three phases: Firstly, deal a heavy blow to China's chip manufacturing, then restrain China's high-tech breakthroughs and development for a considerable period; and finally, enable the US to buy enough time to consolidate its global high-tech dominance and dominate the global market.
But time was not under Washington's control, and this containment policy has soon become exhausting.
Let's look at these new Chinese manufacturers that have emerged.
Firstly, China's production of new energy vehicles has had a significant impact on the global market. Some individuals in the US have expressed concerns that if not regulated, Chinese-made cars will dominate the streets of America. This is due to China's superior technology, such as advanced batteries, and their competitive pricing, which makes it challenging for the US to keep up.
Another area where China has shown technological superiority is the Chinese-made BeiDou system. The US National Space-based Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Advisory Board has warned that "GPS's capabilities are now substantially inferior to those of China's BeiDou."
Chips are what the US has stuck with and what it has a lot of. Still, Americans now fear China's massive investment in low- and mid-range chip manufacturing will eventually monopolize the entire market.
They believe that China would eventually isolate the high-end and make a breakthrough by encircling the low and mid-range. China is expected to soon be able to mass-produce 28nm chips, one of the most widely used worldwide and the most needed by the global manufacturing industry, including the US.
Of course, the US' biggest worry is whether China can independently develop and produce 5G chips. Will Huawei's upcoming phones be loaded with 5G chips? It's not confirmed yet, but speculation is already flying around, making Washington anxious. Some in the US Congress have chanted for stepping up comprehensive sanctions against Huawei.
More anxiety ensues.
China's breakthroughs in aircraft manufacturing, shipbuilding, high-speed rail, robotics, electronics, medical device manufacturing, agricultural technology, and many others will continue to grow, and the supply chains will expand in the coming years.
China's manufacturing breakthroughs to the high-end are inevitable at this stage. The US' containment has stimulated China to focus more on the high-end of the market and pay more attention to the low-end, mid-range innovation path.
The US has already experienced a period of explosive development, similar to what China is currently going through. Thanks to the information technology revolution, Washington has taken the lead in chip technology, computer usage, search engines, social media, big data and cloud computing. This wave of innovation has now reached China.
If the US attempts to hinder every innovation in Chinese manufacturing or any product that creates a dominant impact in the market and restricts those supply channels, Washington would need to excel in all manufacturing sectors.
However, achieving this objective is impractical. The politicians in Washington are relentlessly pursuing this unreachable aim. Let's see how things will develop.
— The Author is a Senior Editor with People's Daily, and currently a senior fellow with the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.
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dlyarchitecture · 2 years
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mindblowingscience · 4 months
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A new study titled "Biomimetic hepatic lobules from three-dimensional imprinted cell sheets" has been led by Prof. Yuanjin Zhao of the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Hepatobiliary Institute, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Medical School, of Nanjing University in China. The research is published in the journal Science Bulletin. To establish high-precision liver lobules, researchers utilized spatial proteogenomic datasets to identify the multicellular specific composition in the normal human liver. Based on this data and cell membrane slicing technology, researchers then employed a newly developed 3D printing strategy to print and carve liver cell sheets with hexagonal hollow cross-sectional structures.
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Climate change is political but it’s “not the imaginary politics of universal consensus,” he writes in the book’s pithy prologue, nor the “anti-politics of miraculous technological salvation”. It’s also “not the end of the world”. Instead, it’s a struggle between “actually existing people over actually existing crises with actually existing differences, interests, and prospects. Climate change is about power.” Politicians in the global north rarely talk this way. They think of climate as an “on/off switch”. “‘We’re doing some climate’”, says Chaudhary, mimicking them, “‘would you prefer we do nothing?’”. But there are two large clusters of “doing something”, both of which Chaudhary examines. The first is what he calls “rightwing climate realism”. This encompasses a “broad spectrum”, from those who favour “slower climate mitigation and adaptation” to climate barbarism, but it’s ultimately about concentrating, preserving and enhancing existing political and economic power. That is why Chaudhary is insistent that, when we think of climate policies, we must pay attention to plans for borders and policing, too. He considers Joe Biden a type of rightwing climate realist. Among the US president’s most important climate policies is not just the Inflation Reduction Act but the US National Security Strategy, Chaudhary argues. “It is insanely jingoistic,” he says. It describes, for instance, out-competing China. If that’s the framework, he argues, we’re doomed, “because US-China cooperation is vital”. Ultimately, rightwing climate realists know there will be “instability” and “they are preparing for it”. That they will be successful is not only “plausible and possible, but probable,” he says. That is why the second avenue of “doing something”, composed of “the rest of us”, is so important. Chaudhary advocates for ��leftwing climate realism”, which accepts the science, not because it’s a discipline “beyond impugning” but because it’s quite clear that there are ecological limits on this planet. We need a slower life, he argues; a circular economic system, where firms compete for the same amount of finite profit and the state dominates certain sectors. This will be good for the planet and for people, producing “a world relieved from social, economic, and ecological despair and exhaustion”.
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elbiotipo · 4 months
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y'know, I think a lot of why people really get into "we should focus on solving problems here instead of dreaming of space" is as a reaction to rich nutcases who convince themselves of shit like "if I put humanity on mars that's better than paying taxes or solving hunger right". so I kinda can't blame the sentiment sprouting and growing beyond its most useful context but it's also kinda like... when did we let rich nutcases take over that entire conversation anyway? they don't even actually succeed at getting into space at all, national space agencies are still winning every single time there
Rich assholes aren't ever gonna "solve world hunger", that's another big fallacy. If someone like Bezos or Musk tried to donate all their money into "solving world hunger" they would either get kicked from their companies, or create agrobusiness megacorporations and being from Argentina I'm well aware on how they work.
But I digress. The reason why there is so much private interest in space lately is because there are market forces pulling up there, and those market forces exist, in my opinion, because there is a future in space. Because there are recent technological changes (most notably reusable rockets) that are creating new possibilities from communication to manufacturing to mining to tourism, there is a lot of potential in space. Not to mention the drive to understand how the universe works, which I think is a worthwhile endeavor on itself.
Why are countries like China also investing so much in space? Because that's where the future is. China has plans for space-based solar panels, international lunar bases, and space science and research. You don't hear much about that, do you? Why would China invest so much in space, just to compete with other countries? No, it's because there are real tangible benefits, from the scientific to the technological to the purely economical, into having a strong space industry.
The USSR knew about this. Much of the Space Race was also a weapons race, this is a sad fact. But when you read about so many of the experiments in Saluyt and Mir, most of them were from the perspective of securing a real presence in space that could bring benefit to people on Earth. From Earth imaging (now mostly done by satellites, to communications, to outright manufacturing. Same with lunar base plans. It all had the intention of not only stroking egos, but bringing real benefits to Earth and building steps into a permanent human presence in space. This wasn't utopian, and in fact, it was military meddling (much like corporatization in the US right now) that prevented the Soviet space program to reach even greater heights.
But my point here is that there isn't only a "wacky billionarie ego trip" push here. Space exploration can and will benefit the people of Earth, and becoming an interplanetary and one day interstellar society will be a great accomplishment. We are in the technological threshold to achieve this, and I believe that as society progresses through class struggle, space exploration will be a pride of a united and peaceful world, something, much like art, much like sports, much like science, much like those things humans do because we can, we can all participate and appreciate.
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New SpaceTime out Friday
SpaceTime 20240920 Series 27 Episode 114
Did dwarf planet Ceres originate in the asteroid belt?
A new study has raised fresh questions about the origin of the dwarf planet Ceres – the largest body in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
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A galactic mystery about Dark matter and stars finally solved
Astronomers have overturned the longstanding idea that stars and dark matter are interacting in inexplicable ways.
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China's secretive spaceplane returns to Earth
China's highly secretive reusable experimental spacecraft has successfully returned to Earth following a 268-day orbital mission.
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The Science Report
Using cruciferous vegetables to lower high blood pressure.
Study shows larger bumblebees fly faster, but that middle-aged bees fly longer and further.
Study shows dogs can remember the names of objects two years after learning them.
Skeptics guide to Wycliffe Well - the UFO capital of Australia!
SpaceTime covers the latest news in astronomy & space sciences.
The show is available every Monday, Wednesday and Friday through Apple Podcasts (itunes), Stitcher, Google Podcast, Pocketcasts, SoundCloud, Bitez.com, YouTube, your favourite podcast download provider, and from www.spacetimewithstuartgary.com
SpaceTime is also broadcast through the National Science Foundation on Science Zone Radio and on both i-heart Radio and Tune-In Radio.
SpaceTime daily news blog: http://spacetimewithstuartgary.tumblr.com/
SpaceTime facebook: www.facebook.com/spacetimewithstuartgary
SpaceTime Instagram @spacetimewithstuartgary
SpaceTime twitter feed @stuartgary
SpaceTime YouTube: @SpaceTimewithStuartGary
SpaceTime -- A brief history
SpaceTime is Australia’s most popular and respected astronomy and space science news program – averaging over two million downloads every year. We’re also number five in the United States.  The show reports on the latest stories and discoveries making news in astronomy, space flight, and science.  SpaceTime features weekly interviews with leading Australian scientists about their research.  The show began life in 1995 as ‘StarStuff’ on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s (ABC) NewsRadio network.  Award winning investigative reporter Stuart Gary created the program during more than fifteen years as NewsRadio’s evening anchor and Science Editor.  Gary’s always loved science. He studied astronomy at university and was invited to undertake a PHD in astrophysics, but instead focused on his career in journalism and radio broadcasting. Gary’s radio career stretches back some 34 years including 26 at the ABC. He worked as an announcer and music DJ in commercial radio, before becoming a journalist and eventually joining ABC News and Current Affairs. He was part of the team that set up ABC NewsRadio and became one of its first on air presenters. When asked to put his science background to use, Gary developed StarStuff which he wrote, produced and hosted, consistently achieving 9 per cent of the national Australian radio audience based on the ABC’s Nielsen ratings survey figures for the five major Australian metro markets: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth.  The StarStuff podcast was published on line by ABC Science -- achieving over 1.3 million downloads annually.  However, after some 20 years, the show finally wrapped up in December 2015 following ABC funding cuts, and a redirection of available finances to increase sports and horse racing coverage.  Rather than continue with the ABC, Gary resigned so that he could keep the show going independently.  StarStuff was rebranded as “SpaceTime”, with the first episode being broadcast in February 2016.  Over the years, SpaceTime has grown, more than doubling its former ABC audience numbers and expanding to include new segments such as the Science Report -- which provides a wrap of general science news, weekly skeptical science features, special reports looking at the latest computer and technology news, and Skywatch – which provides a monthly guide to the night skies. The show is published three times weekly (every Monday, Wednesday and Friday) and available from the United States National Science Foundation on Science Zone Radio, and through both i-heart Radio and Tune-In Radio.
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Two-faced solar panels can generate more power at up to 70% less cost
Researchers have built a new kind of two-faced (bifacial) panel. They used single-walled carbon nanotubes as both front and back electrodes. These tubes are just 2.2 nanometers across. That is slightly thinner than a strand of human DNA. A piece of paper is thicker than 45,000 nanotubes stacked on top of each other. The study is published in the journal Nature Communications, and the team included Surrey scientists working with colleagues at the University of Cambridge, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xidian University, and Zhengzhou University, China. Dr. Jing Zhang, research fellow at Surrey's Advanced Technology Institute, said, "Our bifacial cells can harvest sunlight from both front and back panels. This generates more energy and depends less on which angle the light hits them.
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mysterious-light · 5 months
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Kaishin happy thoughts (m27 spoilers)
Since Kaishin didn't grow up together I wonder if the Westermarck effect will be that potent. Well in any case the taboo against cousin relationships is mainly due to genetic disorders of offsprings which isn't an issue for kaishin. So ignoring the first instinctual reaction, logically there's no harm for two males. Maybe socially there will be discrimination (?/or not as lethal bc it's legal in Japan) but at the moment it doesn't seem like the public in the dcmk universe knows about the two family's relations. Yusaku and Toichi do seem to like keeping secrets so I guess kaishin can do the same.
Delusion: If kaishin does want kids (AU) they can probably get haibara to fix any genetic defects (gene editing technology is possible now in fact it's already been done -like the twin babies in China and they're still fine) and the dc universe seem to have much more advance science anyways (shrinking drugs). Apparently defects from this is pretty low but around the same chance as pregnancy of female over 40yr. Is genetic diversity needed as much for kaishin they seem to have pretty different strengths and weaknesses aside from their similarities. DC cousin relationship might be more chill bc of other cousin canon ships.
Or perhaps Heisei Kaishin and Reiwa Kaishin are two entities now (lol).
Kaito will swiftly tell shinichi it's fine with his 400IQ and shinichi would need to take some time to consult with Haibara--> Happy ending
Just some personal ramblings .
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joytherabbit · 4 months
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beardedmrbean · 22 days
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BEIJING (Reuters) - After quitting the education industry last August due to China's crackdown on private tutoring, He Ajun has found an unlikely second life as an unemployment influencer.
The Guangzhou-based vlogger, 32, offers career advice to her 8,400 followers, charting her journey through long-term joblessness. "Unemployed at 31, not a single thing accomplished," she posted last December.
He is now making around 5,000 yuan ($700) per month through ads on her vlogs, content editing, private consultations and selling handicrafts at street stalls.
"I think in future freelancing will be normalised," said He. "Even if you stay in the workplace, you'll still need freelancing abilities. I believe it will become a backup skill, like driving."
China is under instruction to unleash "new productive forces", with government policies targeting narrow areas of science and technology including AI and robotics.
But critics say that has meant weak demand in other sectors and risks leaving behind a generation of highly educated young people, who missed the last boom and graduated too late to retrain for emerging industries.
A record 11.79 million university graduates this year face unprecedented job scarcity amid widespread layoffs in white-collar sectors including finance, while Tesla, IBM and ByteDance have also cut jobs in recent months.
Urban youth unemployment for the roughly 100 million Chinese aged 16-24 spiked to 17.1% in July, a figure analysts say masks millions of rural unemployed.
China suspended releasing youth jobless data after it reached an all-time high of 21.3% in June 2023, later tweaking criteria to exclude current students.
Over 200 million people are currently working in the gig economy and even that once fast-growing sector has its own overcapacity issues. A dozen Chinese cities have warned of ride-hailing oversaturation this year.
Redundancies have even spread to government work, long considered an "iron rice bowl" of lifetime employment.
Last year Beijing announced a 5% headcount reduction and thousands have been laid off since, according to official announcements and news reports. Henan province trimmed 5,600 jobs earlier this year, while Shandong province has cut nearly 10,000 positions since 2022.
Meanwhile, analysts say China's 3.9 million vocational college graduates are mostly equipped for low-end manufacturing and service jobs, and reforms announced in 2022 will take years to fix underinvestment in training long regarded as inferior to universities.
China currently faces a shortage of welders, joiners, elderly caregivers and "highly-skilled digital talent", its human resources minister said in March.
Yao Lu, a sociologist at Columbia University, estimates about 25% of college graduates aged 23-35 are currently in jobs below their academic qualifications.
Many of China's nearly 48 million university students are likely to have poor starting salaries and contribute relatively little in taxes throughout their lifetimes, said one Chinese economist who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue.
"Although they cannot be called a 'lost generation', it is a huge waste of human capital," the person said.
'DOING THREE PEOPLE'S JOBS'
Chinese President Xi Jinping in May urged officials to make job creation for new graduates a top priority. But for younger workers unemployed or recently fired, the mood is bleak, nine people interviewed by Reuters said.
Anna Wang, 23, quit her state bank job in Shenzhen this year due to high pressure and frequent unpaid overtime. For a salary of about 6,000 yuan per month, "I was doing three people's jobs," she said.
Her ex-colleagues complain about widespread pay cuts and transfers to positions with unmanageable workloads, effectively forcing them to resign. Wang now works part-time jobs as a CV editor and mystery shopper.
At a July briefing for foreign diplomats about an agenda-setting economic meeting, policymakers said they have been quietly urging companies to stop layoffs, one attendee told Reuters.
Olivia Lin, 30, left the civil service in July after widespread bonus cuts and bosses hinted at further redundancies. Four district-level bureaus were dissolved in her city of Shenzhen this year, according to public announcements.
"The general impression was that the current environment isn't good and fiscal pressure is really high," she said.
Lin now wants a tech job. She has had no interview offers after a month of searching. "This is completely different from 2021, when I was guaranteed one job interview a day," she said.
REDUCED STIGMA
Shut out of the job market and desperate for an outlet, young Chinese are sharing tips for surviving long-term unemployment. The hashtags "unemployed", "unemployment diary" and "laid off" received a combined 2.1 billion views on the Xiaohongshu platform He uses.
Users describe mundane daily routines, count down the days since being fired, share awkward chat exchanges with managers or dole out advice, sometimes accompanied by crying selfies.
The increasing visibility of jobless young people "increases broader social acceptance and reduces stigma surrounding unemployment", said Columbia's Lu, allowing otherwise isolated youth to connect and "perhaps even redefine what it means to be unemployed in today's economic climate".
Lu said unemployed graduates understood blaming the government for their plight would be both risky and ineffective. Rather, she said, they were more likely to slip into "an internalisation of discontent and blame" or "lying flat".
He, the influencer, thinks graduates should lower their ambitions.
"If we have indeed entered 'garbage time', then I think young people could accumulate skills or do something creative, such as selling things via social media or making handicrafts."
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saturniandevil · 9 months
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2024 Important Dates
AKA my notes on The Astrology Forecast's 2024 Year Ahead Forecast, hosted by Chris Brennan and Austin Coppock. After the overview and January forecast, I'll put the rest of the year under a readmore. Overall, this year heralds technological innovations, and is a stepping stone into bigger developments in 2025 and 2026.
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Overview
This year would be dramatic on its own, but with bigger shifts ahead in this decade, serves as a preview for even more dramatic changes in 2025 and 2026.
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Pluto in Aquarius We only got about 6 weeks of Pluto in Aquarius in 2023, but this is will it where be for most of 2024 and the next 20 years. We're also getting the last of Uranus in Taurus (7-year transit) and Neptune in Pisces (14-year stay). These outer planets are wrapping up while Pluto starts something new.
Austin predicts Pluto in Aquarius will be a relief to those of us who've been suffering from Pluto in Capricorn. Historically, Chris traces the development of gunpowder, its refinement and transmission from China to Europe with Pluto in Aquarius. Warfare changed with these developments, particularly the strategies of siege. We should expect to see new technologies & applications in warfare now, particularly anti-drone weapons and uses of AI. Near-future science fiction stories from 20 years ago will look incredibly familiar, especially the "cyberpunk dystopia" and man-machine interfaces changing significantly. The first paper shop was set up in Baghdad in 793 under Pluto in Aquarius, and this technology spread around the world under different Pluto in Aquarius periods, with wide-ranging effects on mass communication. Technological espionage is also a theme of this placement--think AI uses, and the US trying to compete with Chinese microchips. This will also form an opposition to natal Pluto for baby boomers (1940s-60s), a transit that rarely occurs within a human lifetime. We'll see the culmination of this generation's power in the world, where figures like Biden or Trump or their contemporaries may have one last bid for power before they have to hand it to someone younger.
Chris actually used AI to help summarize his notes on this transit. With Pluto representing transformation and control, and Aquarius indicating the innovator and the rebel, some general themes are:
Major shifts in how technology shapes society, both empowering people and destructively.
Information warfare and control, especially among governments. Monopolies and censorship attempts will increase.*
Technological leaps. Breakthroughs from both internal research and external sources like cultural exchange or encounters with "that which is foreign/alien."
Science vs ethics: moral dilemmas, tension between curiosity & caution
Globalization on edge: the interconnected world may face challenges, but the exchange of information is crucial to progress. World trade and supply chains spanning the globe will change as countries shift certain sectors to more local production.
*history note: Pluto was in Aquarius during the Renaissance & Scientific Revolution, and the Church tried to censor this new information because it posed a threat to Papal power. Monarchs took state power from the church under Pluto in Aquarius, and the French Revolution under this placement showed the bourgeoisie really challenging the nobility under this placement. Most of the US constitution was written under Pluto in Aquarius--in fact the last Pluto in Aquarius period was during the late 18th century, so prepare for those paradigm shifts & revolutions to shift and revolt once again. New developments in physics and cosmology around dark matter and string theory, increased uses of AI, and new space probes may all prove to shake our ideas of where we stand with the rest of the universe.
Saturn conjunct Neptune Saturn prefers structure & the real world, while Neptune is a realm of imagination and illusions. In 2016 these planets squared each other and the political sound byte "fake news" was important. We no longer trust sound and video in addition to images, especially with advances in AI. Previous Saturn-Neptune contacts include the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the HUAC/McCarthy era in the USA. We'll be asking ourselves, "is this real?" We'll need to balance skepticism with imagination.
Another Saturn-Neptune in Pisces theme is pervasive feelings of despair and collective sorrow over water-related disasters, such as tsunamis or the devastation of Hurricane Katrina. The first Saturn-Neptune conjunction of the 20th century was 1916-1919: disillusionment, skepticism, muddy trench warfare and chemical weapons. More positively, empathy, compassion, and service can come from those who fight for a better world despite hardships. However, Neptune will conjoin Saturn in Aries as well, which will have a much less compassionate flavor. This upcoming Pisces conjunction occurs right as Neptune is leaving the sign--which Piscean developments will get the Saturn stamp of approval and last beyond this decade? Neptune in Pisces has brought us an increased interest in the occult matters and psychedelics, ranging from tarot and astrology to modern cults to therapeutic uses of hallucinogens. Some of the skepticism we see will be the result of having been burned by Pisces Neptune events. Another related topic is augmented reality displays--Austin predicts that since it's been around for so long, if it doesn't take during Neptune & Saturn in Pisces, it probably won't take at all.
Jupiter conjunct Uranus in Taurus This conjunction goes exact in April. In the material sign of Taurus, what sudden developments (Uranus) is Jupiter enabling? In one such application, AI technologies can help advance the field of materials science by designing new compounds & predicting their uses. There are a lot of technological developments bottlenecked by a single limitation, such as limited battery capacity, which if resolved would prompt an explosion of impressive new technologies. Quantum developments, Heisenberg's additions, different political revolutions, the sexual revolution & the Moon landing were under Jupiter-Uranus alignments, as were some of the earliest biology works in the Renaissance era. April will breakthroughs getting supported and confirmed. These come about every 13 years: in 2010 in Aries, 1990s in Aquarius. In 1941 we saw scientific breakthroughs as well, though Saturn's presence fittingly brought a much darker tone. Which house is Taurus in your chart? This transit can bring sudden insight & broaden your horizons in this area (A/N: timing techniques like progressions, Hellenistic profections, and zodiacal release can help you determine if Taurus will be especially "activated" for you around this time).
On the flipside, take care not to indulge in excessive naivete, uncritical embrace of rule-breaking in the name of progress, or getting caught up in fleeting euphoria. Once Uranus leaves, what will stay? What gets truly confirmed by Jupiter? Austin predicts major developments in cryptocurrency, which was not invented under Uranus in Taurus but did rise to prominence under this transit. Taurus also tells us to appreciate the material comforts, and this conjunction may show us a new approach to appreciating these things (like an AI snuggy that helps you sleep!). The potato chip and chocolate-chip cookie were also invented during Uranus in Taurus. More niche items have become more widely available (lab-grown meat, perhaps?), though food and energies has also become disproportionately more expensive/volatile during this transit. Taurus also signifies nature, botany, and ecology--we may see major developments in response to climate change. This is the last year of Uranus in Taurus--perhaps the cottagecore trend will have its last blows. Uranus in Gemini (A/N: 2025) will have us going back into the mainframe...(organic computers?)
Jupiter in Gemini This transit will be about a year long. Immediately upon entry to this sign Jupiter will trine Pluto, and later in the year he'll square Saturn. This will be a big shift, not just by sign, but because Jupiter goes from cooperating with Saturn to fighting him. Light-footed, fast, clever Gemini Jupiter clashes with deep, slow, heavy Pisces Saturn. Their sextile in January/February indicates the economy will likely seem to move in a good direction as the year begins, but the leviathan in the deep will stop us short.
Notable figures born under Jupiter in Gemini & Saturn in Pisces include Alexander Graham Bell and Thomas Edison, bringing us new communications systems. Bell developed the telephone partially as part of efforts to help his mother and other deaf people, while Edison himself had major hearing issues and focused on visual phenomena. However, we have ethics questions too: Bell had issues patenting the telephone as the same day as another inventor--who got there first? (A/N: many of Edison's patents were invented by others with property rights surrendered to him.) Trent Reznor of Nine Inch Nails also has these placements, and he's gone from applying electronic music in rock to films in recent decades. Also born under Pisces Saturn & Gemini Jupiter: Moby, Björk, Alfred Pulitzer (known for pioneering both human interest stories and sensationalism).
Other Jupiter in Gemini keywords: speaking many languages, verbosity, versatility & adptability, self-education, many short experiments, and having a knack for or good luck in new machines. However, Jupiter is considered in exile/detriment in Gemini: this light sign may interfere with Jupiter's desire for deeper understanding. The first decan of Gemini is ruled by Jupiter, and the bound of Jupiter is early in the sign as well, (and Jupiter is a triplicity ruler for Gemini!) so we can actually have quite a strong Jupiter in the beginning of this transit. Pluto in Aquarius trines Jupiter at the start of this transit, and Jupiter will gladly go to work for Pluto's agenda. Expect major technology & information related developments in April-May. This also foreshadows Uranus's entry into Gemini, where he'll trine Pluto thrice.
During this time, all the planets in Gemini are also combust (so close to the Sun we can't see them, figuratively getting burned), so beware of burnout. Another Jupiter in Gemini native is Lana Wachowski (one of the creators of The Matrix). Her coming out story also inspired many, and Jupiter in Gemini is a good place for variety in gender expression. Unfortunately, concepts from her movie were also coopted by right-wingers ("redpilled"). Also under this placement is JK Rowling, initially known for writing increasingly verbose fantasy books, though in recent years has focused her resources on stopping the advancement of trans rights. Jupiter in Gemini is fast, but not always ethical.
Eclipses
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In April we'll have an eclipse that's visible over much of the United States from Texas to Maine, occurring on an election year. In the Indian dasha system, the US entered a Rahu (North Node)-ruled time period 8 years ago, making it especially sensitive to eclipses. There won't be another total eclipse visible in the US until 2045, marking momentous changes. This is also a continuation of the Libra/Aries eclipse story, most recently from the Libra eclipse in October. In both our personal lives and world events we'll see a turning point in the spring. The eclipses this year are in March-April, and September-October (remember, eclipses always come in twos--one lunar, one solar!). The March/April eclipses will be especially chaotic with Mars-Saturn and Jupiter-Uranus conjunctions affecting the equinox. The fall eclipses will begin shifting towards the Pisces/Virgo axis, and the major renewals will shift focus from one area of our lives to another (check which house(s) contain these signs for you).
Comets 2024 will have two comets that may be visible to the naked eye--both during eclipses! The Pons-Brooks comet will be visible in April around the time of the Aries eclipse (and Jupiter-Uranus & Mars-Saturn conjunctions). This indicates a very important time in world history. The comet, which may become visible as the sky darkens, will pass right by the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction. Chris's ancient sources say whether a comet is a good or bad omen depends on its color, brightness, and visibility once it gets here, but he's hopeful its contact with Jupiter-Uranus will be helpful to us. Austin points out it'll be difficult to distinguish the comet's specific effects from everything else going on at that time. The second comet visits us in October, right before eclipses and the US presidential election. "Hopefully we won't get the Game of Thrones Season 2/War of Five Kings comet," says Austin. Chris is going to publish an episode soon analyzing both ancient sources & doing his own historical research on comets, which have connections to wars, regime changes, and religious or political leaders being born.
Mars Austin points out that there will be consistent stelliums in the first half of the year (visible around the eclipses) before returning to more regular dispersal. Mars is also going to make volatile contacts to outer planets as well, really bringing military connotations, mostly earlier in the year and then picking up again at the end of the year with an opposition to Pluto & a retrograde. In fact, Mars enters Leo, the sign of his upcoming retrograde, 2 days before the US presidential election.
US history & election: Mars goes retrograde in the same sign every 79 years, shifting by about 4 degrees every time. Mars did this same retrograde back in the late 1700s when US states were ratifying the Constitution (Pluto was in Aquarius then like it will be in '24, and some other transits are the same as well). The next recurrence was during the passing of the 14th amendment after the Civil War, an amendment forbidding anyone who led an insurrection from entering office. Most recently Mars retrograded in this cycle in 1945-6, during the end of WW2 and stationing just before the birth of a certain controversial recent president. This upcoming Mars retrograde will occur in the same part of the zodiac as these other events.
Chris usually shies away from predicting election results outright because he considers himself too invested to be objective, but he gives us a rundown. Like 2016 this election occurs under a Saturn-Neptune conjunction, foreshadowing the us of AI in political propaganda. If it does end up being Biden vs Trump, Chris says as of now there are indicators for either side winning. For the past 30 years, every presidential election winner has had an eclipse in one of his angular houses (1/4/7/10) shortly before winning. The Aries/Libra eclipses don't fall in angular houses for either, but the Pisces eclipse in September occurs in Biden's 4th house, and the 10th of his running mate Kamala. In Trump's favor is zodiacal releasing: he's starting a 19-year peak period releasing from spirit (career/aspirations) in 2025 just after the election. (This is one of the things that threw Chris off in the 2016 election, since a president elected for 2 consecutive terms then wouldn't be in office anymore in 2025.) This peak period activates the sign of Leo for him, the first house, and contains his natal Mars, bringing fighting and difficulty to the foreground. (A/N: Mars is also entering Leo around the time of the election, so whether he wins or not, we'll be seeing a lot of him.) That's a basic overview, and Chris will discuss other factors as the year progresses. Austin points out we have a perfect Mars-Pluto opposition the day before the election, and Mars stations in Leo right as the electors meet to officially vote. This election is heavily tied to the Mars retrograde, which continues until a few months into 2025. Pluto will take Mars's significations to bigger extremes as well as hidden power plays. Taking place January 20th at noon, Inauguration Day always takes place at the beginning of Aquarius season with the Sun in the 10th house, but Pluto's going to conjoin the Sun as well this year, which Chris predicts will start a new era of American history. Two of the debates fall on eclipse days, and Chris predicts these will have a dramatic effect on the election. Regardless of specific candidates, we know the US is entering a crucial phase of its history with Uranus entering Gemini (same placement as the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and entering WW2). Austin wonders if the Saturn-Neptune conjunction will delay the rise of historic leadership, as his research so far proved inconclusive.
Month-by-month
January
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Mercury stations direct immediately, helping us start things off definitively. Mars in Capricorn colors most of the month. He's very strong & effective in this sign, further supported by a trine from Jupiter in Taurus. With Venus and Mercury copresent Mars in Capricorn, we have an opportunity to practice living how we'd like to before things get crazy. The clichés of "starting your the year off right" are worth following this time around. A Jupiter-Saturn sextile in the first six weeks of the year further supports our efforts to get organized. Take advantage of Jupiter in Taurus to make the growth and expansion you seek permanent. We'll need a set pattern to weather the upcoming storms.
Chris and Leisa's auspicious election for the month is on January 12th, 2023 at 8AM local time with Aquarius rising. This means the Ascendant ruler Saturn receives a helpful sextile from Jupiter (orb of 5 degrees).
After a conjunction with the Sun and the light's ingress into Aquarius, Pluto re-enters that same sign on the 20th, anchoring what's most interesting about February. Chris points out it's exactly one year from the US presidential inauguration and will be an interesting omen.
February
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February has a pileup of planets in Aquarius. From the 5th to the 16th, Mercury, Mars, and Venus all conjoin Pluto. This rapid succession of initial conjunctions will start to show us what this new Pluto era will look like for each of the faster planets. We go from having 4-5 planets in Capricorn to having 4-5 in Aquarius through this first half of the year. What does overwhelming weight in these signs look like for you? The Mars-Pluto conjunction on the 14th will be pretty dramatic. This connotes the use of excessive force, and generally will likely show us what kinds of dangers to expect from Pluto in Aquarius. The Venus-Mars conjunction at nearby degrees will connote future relationship patterns.
March
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This month marks the beginning of eclipse season as well as a pileup of planets in Pisces. After the equinox, we have an eclipse, making the spring very dramatic. Mars sneaks up to a conjunction with Saturn, who rules the April Libra eclipse, and all the while Mercury is retrograde. We have multiple indicators of major world events here, which Chris compares to early 2020. And if that wasn't enough, we've got a comet! The lunar eclipse in Libra heralds back to its sister eclipse in early October.
April
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The Mars-Saturn conjunction will punctuate difficulties of Saturn's transit--the last Mars-Saturn conjunction in Aquarius aligned with the intensifying lockdowns in March-April of 2020. This time the conjunction is in a water sign, so think naval warfare or threats from aquatic creatures. January was a good time to plan; this is not. We'll be adapting to rapid changes and doing what needs to be done. The Aries eclipse will be visible over much of the US, bringing major developments to the nation. Once we get out of eclipse season, we'll have to deal with the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction going exact on the 19th. Chris hopes that this will divide the month in half, from chaotic early on to more hopeful in the second half, especially as Mercury stations direct. Austin is less optimistic, as we'll have Jupiter, Uranus, and Venus all in Taurus. At the end of the month, Mars enters Aries and joins Rahu there, igniting the very point that was just activated by a total eclipse. Regardless, the pace of technology and communications will explode during this month and May.
May
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Once Jupiter enters Gemini, lots of other planets follow him to that sign. This has strong implications for the advancements for communications. Austin says the Taurus developments in the early month indicate financial developments before the technological ones. All the planets in Taurus are looking to its ruler Venus for support, but she's combust (close to the Sun & invisible), so we'll feel something missing from our material comforts.
June
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The Jupiter-Pluto trine is twofold: Jupiter expands Pluto's Aquarian pursuits, while Pluto exponentially magnifies Jupiter's expansion of communications in Gemini. We get a Sun-Venus cazimi in Gemini, resetting her cycle, with Mercury a few weeks after. Some of the Jupiter-Uranus discoveries and inventions may not be visible until later, as the Gemini planets themselves are invisible & passing through the Sun during these few months. There's a spaceship with recreational implications set to be launched next spring, fitting with the expansion of leisure that Jupiter in Taurus connotes. Mars entering Taurus on the 9th will mellow out for awhile after such intense movements. Saturn's retrograde station in Pisces brings him as close to Neptune as he's gonna get this year.
July
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Saturn & Neptune stationing in Pisces blur the lines between what's real and what's not, what's true and what's false... An exlposive, unexpected Mars-Uranus conjunction occurs on the 15th. Furthermore, it's on top of the star Algol, a very ugly configuration that has historically coincided with devastating warfare and weapons. This isn't the tone for all of Mars in Taurus, but it's something to try and steer around if possible. Mars in Gemini brings us to August.
August
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Mercury stations retrograde on the 5th, backtracking through both Virgo and Leo. This year Mercury retrogrades occur mainly in fire signs:
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Mars in Gemini puts him in contact with Jupiter right as the benefic is squaring Saturn in Pisces; the smaller planet will likely exacerbate these issues. Excessive heat and speed clash against excessive cold and slowness. This is a real slowdown for Jupiter's fun and social trip through Gemini. Mercury stations direct by the end of the month, taking us into September.
September
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By this point the planets have stopped moving in a giant pack, spacing out the energies a little. Pluto retrogrades back into Capricorn for the very last time this month; when he enters Aquarius at the end of this year he'll stay there for the next 20 years. Uranus gets as late into Taurus as he's gonna get this year before stationing retrograde as well, trining Pluto within 2 degrees of exactness. Chris charts these planetary contacts over the past few decades:
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Uranus conjunct Pluto in the late 1960s saw major social changes as well as the first computer mouse. A sextile in the mid-1990s heralded the emergence of the Internet as we know it. In the early 2010s, smartphones became more and more ubiquitous, and now we're entering the next phase of new widely used technologies. The 2010s also saw revolutionary movements like the Arab Spring, and similar political developments will be foreshadowed around this time.
Mars enters Cancer, the sign where he'll retrograde. It's not very comfortable, but we'll have to get used to it all the same. Notable degrees are the retrograde beginning at 6Leo10 and ending at 17Cancer01:
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We also get the first hit of the Pisces eclipse series this month. Though its companion eclipse is back in Libra, the September eclipse is foreshadowing for 2025-6.
October
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The height of election season in the US coincides with the height of eclipse season celestially. We'll likely see prominent figures suddenly sink to the bottom or rise to the top around this time--jumping way ahead or falling way behind. Mars enters the shadow of his upcoming retrograde days after the eclipse. It's already hard to see clearly, and the eclipse supercharges all this. The Libra eclipse on the 2nd is the final of its series, wrapping up whatever was initiated in October 2023 (i.e. a new chapter in certain Middle Eastern conflicts). The first lunation free of an eclipse provides no relief, with the Full Moon tightly squaring Mars (♋) and Pluto (♑). This forms a difficult cardinal grand cross with the Sun, Moon, Mars and Pluto. Power plays, manipulation and intrigue abound.
November
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Mars enters Leo, the sign of its retrograde, on the 3rd. Although he's in his pre-retrograde shadow period earlier, this ingress will bring it dramatically forward. He opposes Pluto, who's been stationing since mid-October, bringing paranoia, power struggles/plays, obsession & confrontation, and hidden motives or manipulation from behind the scenes. In opposite signs we'll see tension in opposite approaches to things, such as direct power versus hidden agendas, excessive force and even extermination. Mars only needs to win the battle, but Pluto blows things out of proportion. His station on December 6th is notable. The last Mars retrograde in Cancer was in 2007-2008, so look to this time in your life for an idea of what will happen. We can also look to the Mars retrograde in Leo 15 years ago (12/20/2009-3/10/2010). (This retrograde is mostly in Cancer, but stations in Leo). 2 days after Mars enters Leo is election day in the US (Nov. 5th), shining a light on all the controversies.
Venus is way ahead of everyone in Capricorn, while Pluto reenters Aquarius for good (the next 20 years). Mercury also stations retrograde at the end of the month, bringing us to December.
December
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Mars stations retrograde right after Mercury's own halfway point through the retrograde, bringing miscommunications into Martial clashes, conflicts, and severing/separation. It's during the height of his retrograde that Mars is at his closest to Earth and is at his brightest for the longest (basically all night every night).
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Mars retrograde shows us that no battle plan survives first contact. Excessive heat or conflict will linger for much longer than you expect. Mercury stations direct under a Full Moon on the 15th, and Jupiter squares Saturn exactly on the 24th. Our questions about growth versus boundaries will come back into focus. Meanwhile the rest of Mars retrograde awaits us in 2025, continuing a smoldering conflict into the next year.
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