#Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Russia

[hicginewsagency]

Assad Flees to Moscow as Rebel Forces Seize Damascus.

Rebel fighters patrol the streets of Damascus on a military truck, marking a new chapter in the city’s turbulent history. Courtesy image. Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly fled to Moscow, where he and his family are expected to receive asylum, according to Russian state media. Assad’s dramatic departure comes after the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept into…

[victusinveritas]

From Rebecca Solnit:

"My God. I was out all day today. Bashar Al Assad, the Butcher of Syria, has fled, his infamous prison/death camp/torture center has been freed, and rebels have taken Syria as far as I can tell. What a week. Insurrectionary Georgia. Coup-repelling South Korea. Now this.

The Guardian reports: When Islamist militants swept into her home town of Aleppo little over a week ago, Rama Alhalabi sheltered indoors as fear engulfed her. Forces loyal to president Bashar al-Assad, who had sought to reassure residents that nothing was happening, suddenly deserted the city. But as the insurgency pushed south, rapidly seizing control of the city of Hama on the road to Damascus, Alhalabi’s fears about life under militia rule have slowly ebbed. Instead they have been replaced by fears that her friends in the army will be abandoned by their commanding officers as Assad’s regime loses its grip.

“People in Aleppo are feeling more comfortable now we’re further from the areas under the regime’s control,” said the 29-year-old, while still using a pseudonym in fear Assad could retake the city.

“At the same time, I have many friends serving in the army and I don’t want them to get hurt. People with power inside the regime will protect themselves, and they will leave the poor fighters who were forced to join the army to face their awful fate alone.

“Things changed insanely fast,” she added. “We can barely believe what’s happening.”

As militants spearheaded by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) massed outside the city of Homs and rebel forces said they had entered the vast southern suburbs of the capital, rapid change swept across Syria. The Syrian army declared it had “redeployed,” its forces in two restive provinces south of Damascus in the latest thinly-veiled message of retreat, days after they withdrew from Hama. In under a week, five provincial capitals across the country were suddenly no longer under Assad’s control.

“We can hear the bombing nearby, and we are praying, hoping – and waiting,” said Um Ahmad, an elderly native of Homs, sheltering with her husband at home as the fighting drew close enough to be audible.

Assad loyalists fled the city, while people who stayed only have a couple of hours’ electricity each day and what goods are left in the shops are unaffordable. Those remaining in Homs waited to see if this might be the end of Assad’s rule, while an insurgent commander told his regime’s forces inside the city that this was their “last chance to defect before it’s too late”.

Um Ahmad was consumed by a single thought, that she might finally be able to see her sons again after a decade of separation and exile. “Most people are frightened but they fear the regime’s revenge more than anything else,” she said, as Russian and Syrian airstrikes pummelled the countryside around Homs and Hama.

When a popular uprising swept cities across Syria in 2011 calling for Assad to go, it initially looked as if demonstrations could topple another regional autocrat. But the Syrian leader swiftly turned the state’s weapons on his own people to crush dissent. As the uprising slowly morphed into a civil war, Assad freed jihadist prisoners from his fearsome detention system to alter the forces rising up against him, before relying heavily on his allies in Russia and Iran to provide the military muscle he used to reclaim control.

The civil war killed over 300,000 people in 10 years of fighting, with some estimates putting the true toll at twice that number. Tens of thousands remain in detention, including 100,000 believed missing or forcibly disappeared in Assad’s prisons since 2011, and subject to what United Nations monitors have described as systematic torture. Over 12 million people have been displaced.

Assad kept control of Syria’s major cities for years, as battle lines from the country’s years-long proxy war hardened. HTS ruled over a mountainous pocket in the northwest, cut off from the outside world. The group appeared a dim threat to Assad until they suddenly launched an offensive that saw them take control of Aleppo within days.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/07/syria-assad-damascus-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-insurgents

[mariacallous]

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad faces the most substantial threat to his regime in years, after rebels captured Aleppo—one of the country’s largest cities—last week, along with dozens of other towns and villages, in a surprise assault.

The move on Aleppo followed a Nov. 27 offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an opposition militant group and former al Qaeda affiliate that controls much of Syria’s Idlib province, which borders Aleppo province. Aided by locally manufactured kamikaze drones, HTS appears to have caught Assad’s forces off guard, prompting them to retreat from vast areas that are now under the group’s control. Both sides have already suffered significant losses, with at least 446 combatants and civilians killed since Nov. 27, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

More than 14,000 people have been displaced due to the recent violence, according to local aid group Violet. But, for the first time in eight years, many regime dissidents are returning to towns and villages that are now under HTS control.

The Syrian civil war began in 2011 after Assad’s regime violently repressed pro-democracy protesters, triggering a conflict that has so far claimed more than half a million lives and displaced over 7 million people. Aleppo was a major opposition stronghold until 2016, when a Russian air bombing campaign retook the city for the Assad regime.

HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has instructed his fighters to protect all civilians, including Christians, as well as Syrian regime soldiers who surrender, according to Idlib-based journalist Fared al-Mahlool. Following its split with al Qaeda around 8 years ago, HTS has sought to rebrand itself as a more moderate force than its erstwhile benefactor. Now, many residents of newly captured areas are uncertain what life under HTS control might entail.

Recent escalations in northwest Syria come as Assad’s main international supporters are preoccupied with their own conflicts. Russia is prioritizing its war in Ukraine, and both Iran and its proxy Hezbollah, in Lebanon, have been significantly weakened in fighting with Israel. Still, Russian and Syrian airstrikes targeted Idlib and Aleppo provinces over the weekend, while Iranian-backed militias from Iraq—including Kataib Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun—recently crossed into Syria, according to Al Arabiya, a Saudi Arabian news channel.

“Since Sunday, the bombings are constant,” Mahlool said. “Several schools and clinics in Idlib province have already been targeted.”

On Dec. 1, an airstrike hit Aleppo University Hospital, killing at least 12 people and injuring dozens more. The strike also damaged one of Violet’s ambulances, said Yemn Sayed Issa, the media and communication coordinator with the aid group. That same day, airstrikes targeted Idlib University Hospital, Ibn Sina Hospital, Idlib’s National Hospital, and the Idlib Health Directorate. And, according to Issa, a Soviet-era warplane struck a camp for displaced people near Ma’arrat Misrin, a town just north of central Idlib, killing at least seven civilians, including five children and two women. Violet’s medical team is responding to the attacks.

“It’s extremely dangerous for everyone. Our medics and ambulances head out daily, but constantly fear being targeted,” Issa said, adding that Aleppo—home to around 2 million people—is now critically short on essentials like bread, water, fuel, and medical supplies, which had previously been shipped from other regime-held areas.

“Everything is coming from Idlib now, but it’s difficult. The humanitarian situation is tragic. People are having to find shelter wherever they can,” Issa said. “In the town of [Darkush], for example, a public swimming pool has been turned into a temporary shelter for people who have fled their villages. Most displaced families have been forced to seek shelter in open fields and farmland, without any proper shelter or basic facilities.”

HTS’s advance means Aleppo is under opposition control for the first time in eight years. The front line had remained frozen since Russia and Turkey brokered a cease-fire deal in 2020. The two countries back opposing sides in Syria.

Russia, along with Iran and Hezbollah, are Assad’s key allies, while Turkey supports the Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of opposition groups—excluding HTS—that fights the Assad regime and Kurdish forces such as the People’s Defense Units (YPG) and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkey considers the latter two groups to be terrorist organizations.

Since the recent rebel offensive, Assad’s regime has effectively abandoned areas within Aleppo province and left them under Kurdish control. The SNA continues to push the Kurdish groups further east. On Dec. 1, the SNA captured the strategic town of Tel Rifaat, which is located between Aleppo and the Turkish border. For the past eight years, the area had been under YPG and PKK control—a significant national security concern for Turkey.

The relationship between HTS and the SNA has long been tense; HTS has sought control over SNA-held areas and the SNA distrusts HTS for numerous reasons, including ideological differences. But both groups share a common goal.

“The priority is to fight the regime,” said Orwa Ajjoub, a doctoral candidate at Malmo University in Sweden who researches Islamist groups in Syria. “I’ve spoken with people who are sworn enemies of HTS to this day, but now they’re putting their differences aside to fight the regime. HTS is leading these efforts. When the dust settles, we’ll see how these diverse groups manage to resolve their disagreements.”

Turkey has its own troops in Syria, primarily in Idlib, Afrin, and other areas east of the Euphrates River, mainly as part of its operations against the PKK and YPG. Around 900 U.S. troops are also in the country; mostly concentrated in northeastern Syria, they support counter-terrorism operations against the Islamic State.

Analysts have speculated over whether Turkey—which is keen to reduce the power of the PKK and YPG—gave HTS the green light for the operation. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, however, said that it would be “wrong” to try to chalk the current situation in Syria up to external intervention.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tried to mend relations with Assad in July, following a deterioration of ties throughout the war. Yet Assad insisted that Turkish forces must fully withdraw from Syria for him to negotiate with Erdogan—a request Turkey is unwilling to meet due to its own national security concerns.

Speaking with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Dec. 1, Fidan stressed that Turkey opposes instability in the region and reiterated the importance of reducing tensions in Syria. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Turkey on Dec. 2 to discuss the situation in Syria. “Recent developments show once again that Damascus must reconcile with its own people and the legitimate opposition,” Fidan said at a joint news conference with Araghchi. “Turkey is ready to make all the necessary contribution toward this.”

Whether Turkey knew about it or not, “this operation is definitely a win for Turkey,” Ajjoub said. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has spoken about potentially withdrawing the remaining U.S. troops in Syria, which could create a power vacuum in the region. “Having more leverage in Syria before Donald Trump takes office could be significant for Turkey,” Ajjoub said.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Syria :: David Rowe

"If the United States was still going to be run by the competent next month, we would now be on the verge of destroying Russia as a competitor and letting Xi Jinping know how far he can go, along with ending the Iranian-backed opposition in the Middle East. The “authoritarian alternative to democracy” would be gasping for air. That may not sound “pretty” to political idealists, but since neither Nirvana nor Utopia is likely to be proclaimed in my lifetime, I damn sure prefer us to them.

Literally, the only thing that can now save Putin is the Orange Clusterfuck’s desire to surrender to his tender mercies and tear us apart because his sick, twisted psyche is so damaged by the fact civilized society saw him as the piece of shit he was born to be and left him with his nose pressed to a glass door that was never going to be opened to the likes of him. That we are expected hand this country over to traitors who campaigned on a promise to commit this destruction enrages me beyond my ability to put it in words."

[TCinLA]

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LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

December 8, 2024

Heather Cox Richardson

Dec 09, 2024

Late last night, the White House said in a statement that “President Biden and his team are closely monitoring the extraordinary events in Syria and staying in constant touch with regional partners.”

Early this morning, the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad fell to armed opposition.

According to Jill Lawless of the Associated Press, the forces that toppled Assad are led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a coalition of Islamic groups formerly associated with al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria and currently designated a terrorist group by the U.S. and the United Nations, although its leaders have tried to distance themselves from al-Qaeda.

President Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father to the Syrian presidency in July 2000, establishing a totalitarian dictatorship. In 2011, Assad cracked down on protesters who were part of the Arab Spring, sparking a civil war of a number of factions fighting Assad’s troops, which by 2015 relied on support from Russia and Iran.

That war has turned half of Syria’s prewar population of 23 million (a little more than the population of Florida) into refugees and killed more than half a million people. With Russian and Iranian support, Assad managed to regain control of most of the country, with rebels pushed back to the north and northwest.

A stalemate that had lasted for years ended abruptly on November 27.

Iran and Hezbollah have been badly weakened by the ongoing fight of Israel against Iran-backed Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. On November 27, Israel and Lebanon signed a ceasefire agreement that made it clear that Hezbollah had been tied down in Lebanon and that its ability to fight had been severely compromised. At the same time, Russia has been badly weakened by almost three years of war against Ukraine, and the Russian ruble fell sharply again in late November after additional U.S. sanctions targeted Russia’s third-largest bank, creating more economic hardship in Russia and undercutting Putin’s insistence that he is winning against the West.

When opposition forces began an offensive on November 27, they took more than 15 villages in Aleppo province that day. Journalist Lawless recounted a quick history of the next 11 days, recording how the insurgents swept through the country with little resistance, taking Syria’s largest city, Aleppo, on the 29th. The Syrian military launched a counterattack on December 1, but the insurgents continued to gain ground, and by December 7 they had captured Syria’s third-largest city, Homs. They announced they were in the “final stage” of their offensive.

Today, December 8, Assad fled with his family to Moscow, where Russian president Vladimir Putin has offered him asylum. As Nick Paton Walsh of CNN put it, “Without the physical crutches of Russia’s air force and Iran’s proxy muscle Hezbollah, [Assad] toppled when finally pushed.”

In Damascus, crowds are praying and celebrating, and opposition forces have liberated the prisoners held in the notorious Saydnaya military prison. More than 100,000 detainees are unaccounted for, and their families are hoping to find them, or at least to find answers.

Meanwhile, after Assad’s regime fell, the U.S. Air Force struck more than 75 ISIS-related targets in Syria. “ISIS has been trying to reconstitute in this broad area known as the Badiya desert,” a White House senior official told reporters. “We have worked to make sure they cannot do that. So when they try to camp there, when they try to train… we take them out.”

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan explained at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California, that the U.S. will work to prevent the resurgence of ISIS. It will also make sure “that our friends in the region, Israel, Jordan, Iraq, others who border Syria, or who would potentially face spillover effects from Syria, are strong and secure.” Finally, he said, the U.S. wants to make sure “that this does not lead to a humanitarian catastrophe.”

Speaking to the nation this afternoon, President Joe Biden announced: "At long last, the Assad regime has fallen. This regime brutalized and tortured and killed literally hundreds of thousands of innocent Syrians." He called the fall of Assad’s regime a “fundamental act of justice” and “a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country.”

But it is also “a moment of risk and uncertainty,” the president said. He noted that the U.S. is “mindful” of the security of Americans in Syria, including freelance journalist Austin Tice, who was kidnapped in 2012 and imprisoned by Assad’s regime. “[W]e believe he is alive,” Biden told reporters. “We think we can get him back, but we have no direct evidence of that yet.”

Biden noted that Syria’s main backers, Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, could not defend “this abhorrent regime in Syria” because they “are far weaker today than when I took office.” He continued: “This is a direct result of the blows that Ukraine [and] Israel” have landed on them “with the unflagging support of the United States.”

In contrast to Biden’s comments, President-elect Donald Trump’s social media accounts took Russia’s side in the Syrian events. Noting that the insurgents looked as if they would throw Assad out, Trump’s account said that “Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years.” The account blamed former president Barack Obama for the crisis of 2011 and said that Russia had stepped in then to stop the chaos. The Trump account suggested that Assad’s defeat might be “the best thing that can happen to” Russia, because “[t]here was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid.”

“In any event,” the account continued, “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”

In contrast to Trump’s focus on Russia, journalist Anne Applebaum, a scholar of autocracy, took a much broader view of the meaning of Assad’s fall. In dictatorships, she wrote in The Atlantic, “cold, deliberate, well-planned cruelty” like Assad’s “is meant to inspire hopelessness. Ludicrous lies and cynical propaganda campaigns are meant to create apathy and nihilism.” Random arrests create destabilizing waves of refugees that leave those who remain in despair.

Authoritarian regimes seek “to rob people of any ability to plan for a different future, to convince people that their dictatorships are eternal. ‘Our leader forever’” she points out, was the slogan of the Assad dynasty. But soldiers and police officers have relatives who suffer under the regime, and their loyalty is not assured, as Assad has now learned.

The future of Syria is entirely unclear, Applebaum writes, but there is no doubt that “the end of the Assad regime creates something new, and not only in Syria. There is nothing worse than hopelessness, nothing more soul-destroying than pessimism, grief, and despair. The fall of a Russian- and Iranian-backed regime offers, suddenly, the possibility of change. The future might be different. And that possibility will inspire hope all around the world.”

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[darkmaga-returns]

13 December 2024, posted by Eric Zuesse. (All of my recent articles can be seen here.)

——

13 December 2024 17:26

“Blinded by propaganda: What’s really happening in Syria while the new government talks peace? (DISTURBING VIDEOS)”

While the militants who have seized power make promises that delight Western journalists, the country is drowning in blood.

Since the start of the large-scale offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied opposition groups, the HTS-led Syrian Salvation Government has issued a series of loud statements.

The first concerned Russia and its support of the Syrian authorities. Russian troops were the only ones to oppose the advancing opposition forces, and the rebels urged them to end the strikes on terrorist positions, claiming that such actions would only result in civilian casualties. The Syrian Salvation Government said that its actions were aimed against the Syrian authorities, not Moscow, with which the militants intend to establish mutually beneficial cooperation.

Next, the Salvation Government released statements concerning neighboring countries. It called on Iraq to close its borders and prevent pro-Iranian groups from entering Syria to help exiled President Bashar Assad. Additionally, the rebels proclaimed that they would protect all foreign embassies, humanitarian organizations, and journalists.

Read more Why the West cheers for Al-Qaeda successors taking over Syria

A separate statement was issued regarding chemical weapons, their production facilities and storage sites. The Salvation Government assured media that these weapons would never be used and would not fall into irresponsible hands, and invited relevant international organizations to monitor them.

Some of the rebels’ most notable promises were made to ethnic and religious minorities in Syria, including Kurds, Alawites, Christians, and Shiites. The Salvation Government declared that no minority would face genocide or persecution for their views and beliefs, since they are an integral part of the Syrian nation. It also said that inclusivity is the strength, not the weakness, of the future Syria.

[tomorrowusa]

The speed with which Syrian rebels have overrun areas recently under control of the al-Assad dictatorship is amazing. If you had asked a week ago what HTS was, I probably would have replied that it was a K-Pop group. But Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies have apparently just captured Daraa and are now in the center of Homs.

There are unconfirmed reports that rebels have now reached the suburbs of Damascus. The government has felt it necessary to issue a statement saying President al-Assad hasn't fled the capital.

Bashar al-Assad and his father Hafez have ruled Syria since 1971. Both father and son have been ruthless violators of human rights with the blood of tens of thousands of Syrians on their hands.

Unless al-Assad wants to end up like Muammar Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein, he should get his ass out of the country ASAP. Perhaps his pal Vladimir Putin could find a place for him to stay in Russia.

[thoughtlessarse]

Pro-Kremlin media outlets claim that US and Ukrainian forces were instrumental in toppling al-Assad,  the EU East Stratcom Task Force reported on Thursday morning. The task force was set up by the EU in 2015 as part of the European External Action Service (EEAS). Its flagship project is a database of articles on fake news. From the start of the war in Ukraine, it has been publishing weekly news about Russia’s disinformation and information manipulation. While the Syrian people and most of the world celebrated the ending of the Assad family’s 54-year-long dictatorship, Moscow saw it differently. At the Doha Forum in Qatar on 7 December, a day before the fall of the regime and Assad’s escape to Russia, Foreign Minister Lavrov was quick to blame the US and its NATO allies for a global plot. Given the Kremlin’s backing of the dictatorship during the civil war in Syria, the official Russian line deployed on all main state outlets was not to give it prominent coverage. In coverage of the topic, the line was to stick with the usual practice of blaming the US as the mastermind behind the events. Russian media also claimed that Ukraine had supported terrorist groups in Syria and that Israel could be behind them. The Assad regime collapsed after a surprise military offensive by the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Encouraged by Turkey, the rebels took advantage of the opportunity when Assad’s allies Iran and Hezbollah had been weakened in the war with Israel and agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon. Russia was unable to divert troops and intervene because of its war of aggression against Ukraine. Up until the fall of the Assad regime, Russia insisted on the so-called "Astana format" of negotiations (Russia, Iran, Turkey) to manage developments in Syria and bring about a political solution. This format is now recognized by Kremlin as lost. Both Russia and Iran, who supported the regime, have been forced to leave Syria and lost their military assets there.

continue reading

[nicklloydnow]

“The Syrian government fell early Sunday in a stunning end to the 50-year rule of the Assad family after a sudden rebel offensive sprinted across government-held territory and entered the capital in 10 days.

Syrian state television aired a video statement by a group of men saying that President Bashar Assad has been overthrown and all detainees in jails have been set free.

(…)

The statement emerged hours after the head of a Syrian opposition war monitor said Assad had left the country for an undisclosed location, fleeing ahead of insurgents who said they had entered Damascus following the remarkably swift advance across the country.

(…)

It was the first time opposition forces had reached Damascus since 2018, when Syrian troops recaptured areas on the outskirts of the capital following a yearslong siege.

(…)

The night before, opposition forces took the central city of Homs, Syria’s third largest, as government forces abandoned it. The city stands at an important intersection between Damascus, the capital, and Syria’s coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus — the Syrian leader’s base of support and home to a Russian strategic naval base.

The rebels had already seized the cities of Aleppo and Hama, as well as large parts of the south, in a lightning offensive that began Nov. 27. Analysts said rebel control of Homs would be a game-changer.

(…)

The advances in the past week were by far the largest in recent years by opposition factions, led by a group that has its origins in al-Qaida and is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the United Nations. In their push to overthrow Assad’s government, the insurgents, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, or HTS, have met little resistance from the Syrian army.

(…)

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said Sunday he does not know where Assad or the defense minister are. He told Saudi television network Al-Arabiyya early Sunday that they lost communication Saturday night.

He has had little, if any, help from his allies. Russia is busy with its war in Ukraine. Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which at one point sent thousands of fighters to shore up Assad’s forces, has been weakened by a yearlong conflict with Israel. Iran has seen its proxies across the region degraded by regular Israeli airstrikes.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday posted on social media that the United States should avoid engaging militarily in Syria. Separately, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser said the Biden administration had no intention of intervening there.”

“A fast-advancing rebel offensive in Syria threatens to dislodge Russia from a strategic linchpin that Moscow has used for a decade to project power in the Middle East, in the Mediterranean and into the African continent.

It also challenges Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to portray Moscow as a flag bearer for an alternative global order to rival Western liberalism, and his defense of the Syrian regime as evidence of successful pushback against American dominance in the region.

(…)

Russia intervened in Syria’s civil war in 2015 to prop up President Bashar al-Assad against an armed uprising prompted by the Arab Spring, giving it a role as an influential foreign power in the Middle East. It sought to leverage its relations with rival powers such as Iran and Israel, as well as Turkey and Gulf states, to mediate conflicts and claim status as a regional power broker.

(…)

Syria has partly been an ideological project for Putin. The intervention in Syria became a way for Russia to extend its vision of a multipolar world opposed to the Western liberal order, said Nicole Grajewski, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of a coming book on Russia’s relationship with Iran, including in Syria.

“To see Russian planes leave Syria as rebel forces move onward towards their air bases, and their assets in Damascus fall, this would be so devastating for the Russian image of itself,” she said. “It would be akin to a Saigon moment for them.”

Putin’s assistance was instrumental to Assad’s survival, and showed Moscow’s allies far beyond the Middle East that Russian intervention could help push back popular uprisings, said a former Russian official. African leaders began to invite Russia, and specifically contractors from the Wagner paramilitary group who also played a critical role in Syria, to help stabilize their regimes.

Syria holds significant strategic value for Russia as well. The Khmeimim air base near the coastal city of Latakia serves as a logistical hub for flights to Libya, the Central African Republic, and Sudan, where Russian private contractors and soldiers have operated for years.

A naval base in the port city of Tartus serves as the only replenishment and repair point for the Russian navy in the Mediterranean, where it has brought in goods by bulk through the Black Sea. Tartus has granted Putin access to a warm water port, something Russian rulers for centuries before him sought in the Middle East. The port could also potentially connect Russia to Libya—like Syria, a Soviet-era ally—where it seeks a naval base to extend its reach into sub-Saharan Africa. A rebel takeover of those Syrian coastal positions could jeopardize Russia’s global-power projection.

“Syria provided so many advantages at a low cost,” said Anna Borshchevskaya, senior fellow at the Washington Institute think tank and author of a book on Putin’s war in Syria. “Losing Syria would be a big strategic defeat that would reverberate beyond the Middle East. It would have global repercussions.”

(…)

“One way to see Putin’s ambition in Syria is as part of his larger imperial vision,” said Borshchevskaya. “That’s what Ukraine is, that’s what [the invasion of] Georgia was in 2008, and to some extent that’s what Syria was,” she said. “Now in 2024, Russia finally finds itself overstretched.”

(…)

The Russian intervention in the civil war turned the tide in Assad’s favor and helped Iran consolidate its military foothold all the way to the Israeli border. Western attempts to isolate Moscow and Tehran through sanctions have pushed them closer together.”

“For years, Syria’s complicated battlefields have been populated by shifting groups of militants battling a range of enemies, including each other, and proxies backed by outside powers. Iran and Russia have propped up the autocratic Assad regime for more than a decade, while Turkey and the United States have troops on the ground in areas outside government control, and each support local proxies.

News reports and videos posted on social media indicate U.S.-backed rebels, supported by American airstrikes, may now be battling Syrian government forces as part of renewed fighting in the east.

That U.S. backing means boots on the ground. Around 900 U.S. troops are deployed in Syria alongside private military contractors, in what one expert calls “arguably the most expansive abuse” of the war powers granted to the executive branch in the wake of 9/11 — and those troops have, on average, come under fire multiple times each week since last October, according to new Pentagon statistics obtained by The Intercept.

Since the war in Gaza began last year, U.S. forces have been under sustained attack by Iran-backed militants across the Middle East, with the Pentagon’s Syrian bases being the hardest hit. Since October 18, 2023, there have been at least 127 attacks on U.S. forces in Syria, according to Lt. Cmdr. Patricia Kreuzberger, a Pentagon spokesperson, and information supplied by U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM. On average, that’s about one attack every three days.

(…)

Brian Finucane, a former State Department lawyer now with the International Crisis Group, said the ongoing bombardment of U.S. bases should prompt hard questions in America’s halls of power. “Why are U.S. troops in Syria? What is the mission? What is the endgame? And is this legally authorized?” are the questions that need answers, he said. “The administration doesn’t want to have that debate. Congress also seems perfectly fine avoiding it. And so, the legislative and executive branches are content to muddle along, avoiding their constitutional responsibilities — the need for congressional authorization — and really debate the merits of this conflict.”

THE U.S. MILITARY has been conducting operations in Syria since 2014. America’s bases there and in neighboring Iraq ostensibly exist to conduct “counter-ISIS missions,” despite the fact that the Pentagon concluded in 2021 that the Islamic State in Syria “probably lacks the capability to target the U.S. homeland.”

Around 900 U.S. troops — including commandos from Combined Special Operations Joint Task Force-Levant — and an undisclosed number of private military contractors are operating in Syria. In 2022, The Intercept revealed the existence of a low-profile 127-echo counterterrorism program in Syria targeting Islamist militants. Under the 127e authority, U.S. Special Operations forces arm, train, and provide intelligence to small groups of elite foreign troops. But unlike traditional foreign assistance programs, which are primarily intended to build local capacity, 127e partners are dispatched on U.S.-directed missions, targeting U.S. enemies to achieve U.S. aims.

The Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led militant group based in the country’s northeast is America’s main proxy force in Syria. While the SDF fights Islamist extremists with U.S. support, it also battles Turkey and Turkish-backed militants. Turkey, America’s longtime NATO ally, opposes the SDF due to that group’s ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a Kurdish nationalist militant group that both the Turkish and U.S. governments, among others, have designated a terrorist group.

(…)

The future of America’s escalating war in Syria may face renewed scrutiny early next year. President-elect Donald Trump showed antipathy to the U.S. war in Syria and withdrew U.S. forces from the north of the country in 2019, opening the door to a Turkish invasion.

“When Trump ordered the removal of U.S. forces from Syria in late 2018, there was a scramble within the government to try to figure out what that meant and whether there were ways to walk it back,” said Finucane, the former State Department lawyer. “The Pentagon was fine to pull out U.S. troops from al Tanf because there was really no counter-ISIS mission. But in his memoir, [Trump’s national security adviser] John Bolton said he wanted to keep troops there to counter Iran.”

For four years, experts say the Biden administration has continued this shadow effort aimed at Iran under the guise of a counter-ISIS mission, fending off several congressional efforts to force the removal of U.S. troops from Syria. Last year, a bid by Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., to compel the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Syria within 30 days also failed. “The American people have had enough of endless wars in the Middle East,” Paul told The Intercept at the time. “Yet, 900 U.S. troops remain in Syria with no vital U.S. interest at stake, no definition of victory, no exit strategy, and no congressional authorization to be there.” Those troops may be increasingly drawn into the Syrian civil war in support of their SDF allies.

“This is arguably the most expansive abuse of the 2001 AUMF in the history of the law,” said Erik Sperling of Just Foreign Policy, an advocacy group critical of mainstream Washington foreign policy, referring to the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force, enacted in the wake of the September 11 attacks. “We know from Biden administration leaks that the U.S. presence in Syria was part of an anti-Iran proxy war strategy but after Congress started voting to remove troops, they cracked down on those leaks and they said it’s only about terrorism.”

(…)

U.S. troops have, however, been relentlessly attacked across the Middle East since last October. There have been at least 208 attacks against U.S. forces in the region — two in Jordan, 79 in Iraq, and 127 in Syria — according to Kreuzberger and CENTCOM. In addition to coming under fire about once every other day, U.S. troops have been killed or seriously injured in these attacks. In January, three U.S. soldiers were killed and more than 40 other personnel were injured in an attack on a base in Jordan near the Syrian border. Eight U.S. troops also suffered traumatic brain injuries and smoke inhalation from an August 9 drone attack on the Rumalyn Landing Zone in northeastern Syria.”

“Israeli ground forces advanced beyond the demilitarized zone on the Israel-Syria border over the weekend, marking their first overt entry into Syrian territory since the 1973 October War, according to two Israeli officials speaking anonymously to discuss sensitive developments.

(…)

Israeli forces took control of the mountain summit of Mount Hermon on the Syrian side of the border, as well as several other locations deemed essential for stabilizing control of the area.

Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, the Israeli military chief of staff, appeared to confirm on Saturday night that Israeli forces had gone beyond a demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights, saying Israel had “deployed troops into Syrian territory,” although he did not elaborate further.

(…)

More recently, the Israeli military has been more explicit about striking sites and people there, saying it was targeting Hezbollah’s supply lines. But the deployment of ground troops beyond the demilitarized zone in Syria marks a significant shift in policy as the first overt entry of Israeli military forces into Syrian territory since the 1974 cease-fire agreement that officially ended the last war between Israel and Syria.

The Israeli Air Force over the weekend was also striking targets in Syria to destroy government military assets that could fall into the hands of rebel forces and are considered strategic threats by Israel, the two officials said.

(…)

The targets included small stockpiles of chemical weapons, primarily mustard gas and VX gas, which remained in Syrian possession despite prior agreements to disarm, according to the officials. The Israeli military also targeted radar-equipped batteries and vehicles of Russian-made air defense missiles, as well as stockpiles of Scud missiles, according to the two officials.

(…)

Israel captured the Golan Heights during the Middle East war of 1967 and annexed much of the territory in 1981. The rest is controlled by Syria. Most of the world views this area as Israeli-occupied Syrian territory, though Donald J. Trump recognized Israeli sovereignty there in 2019 during his first term as president.”

[totallyhussein-blog]

Uncertain future for Christians under new Syrian regime

Archimandrite Shafiq Abouzayd hoped that a new government would respect “the mosaic status of Syria with different religions and social ideologies”, as Abigail Frymann Rouch writes in The Tablet.

A priest ministering to Syrian Christians in London said that those remaining in Syria were fearful at the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and that some were trying to flee.

Archimandrite Shafiq Abouzayd, a Lebanese priest who serves the nearly 1,000 Melkite Catholics in the dioceses of Westminster and Southwark, said that many of the Syrians among them were in constant contact with their families. “Of course, a lot of them are worried, they don’t know what will happen next,” he told The Tablet.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant, which led the rebel coalition which toppled Assad’s government over weekend, has been designated a terror group by the UK government since 2017.

The group’s leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has pledged to honour the country’s religious and ethnic diversity.

“Aleppo has always been a meeting point for civilisations and cultures, and it will remain so, with a long history of cultural and religious diversity,” he said in a statement on the Telegram messaging platform after the city fell to his forces last week.

He also told Christians in the city that that his forces would “ensure your protection and safeguard your property”.

Abouzayd welcomed Jolani’s words, but said: “We need a proper army. We need a proper government, a proper president. Relying on one person is not enough, because it is a complex war between different super-powers and local powers.”

He noted the “ambiguous” roles played by Assad’s allies in Russia and Iran, as well as the US and Turkish governments which had at various points backed the rebels.

Asked whether the fall of Assad, who had styled himself as a protector of minorities, was good for Syria, Abouzayd said it could be if elections took place in the next few months and the incoming government respected “the mosaic status of Syria with different religions and social ideologies”.

However, if it were to comprise fanatics “like Al-Qaeda and ISIS and so on, we will definitely suffer a lot, as it happened after the departure of Saddam Hussein”. He added that “there is not one colour for these Islamists”, and how they behaved depended on their leadership and whoever was funding them.

He said a mass exodus of Christians, as has happened from Iraq since 2003, was unlikely. He pointed out that Jordan had closed its border crossing from Syria, while instability in Lebanon and Iraq made them unattractive options for emigrants. He said it was no longer possible to acquire visas for European countries or the US and Turkey wanted to bid farewell to the more than three million Syrian refugees there rather than welcome more.

In the first years after the US-led invasion of Iraq, Syria took in some of the Iraqi Christians fleeing the chaos that erupted after Saddam Hussein was removed from power. However, since the start of Syria’s civil war in 2011, the Christian population has shrunk from around 10 per cent to two per cent of the population – around 300,000 – due to political and economic instability.

Fresh in the minds of Syrian Christians are the years in which ISIS controlled eastern areas of their country, proclaiming them and parts of northern Iraq a caliphate in which Christians could pay protection money, convert, flee or risk death. One priest – Fr François Murad – was shot dead, and more than 200 lay people were abducted.

In 2013 Islamists kidnapped Metropolitan Youhanna Ibrahim and Metropolitan Pavlos Yazigi, respectively the Syriac Orthodox and Greek Orthodox Archbishops of Aleppo. Both are believed to have been killed.

[generallemarc]

Syria news update

I'll be following this obsessively, so I may as well provide some info to anyone interested. An article published by Politico at about 1:30 EST(or last updated at that time, it could be either) claims that the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS forces now control around half of Aleppo. For any who don't know, these guys had been contained within part of the Idlib governorate since around 2020, and despite being theocratic terrorists who used to be a branch of al-Qaeda, their part of Idlib nearly doubled in population from around 4 million to around 8 million from refugees fleeing the Assad regime. Assad's forces, backed up by Iranian advisors and militias along with Russian drones and the occasional Russian airstrike had been waging a low-level campaign of bombings and artillery strikes against the rebels for months now, but they've melted in the face of this new advance.

There also seems to be some clashes between the remnants of the Syrian National Army(who control a small portion of the north of the country and are now backed by Turkey, who has troops in parts of the SNA's territory) and the Syrian government forces, with reports of an airstrike on an SNA base that could only have come from either the Syrian government or Russia. There are reports of the SNA having captured multiple villages and towns, though not nearly as many as the jihadis, since the SNA is, to borrow a nerd phrase, likely just making attacks of opportunity to capitalized on the Syrian government's weakness, as opposed to the jihadis who were likely planning and amassing forces for months.

The SDF has an enclave in Aleppo that was previously a majority-Kurdish neighborhood before the war, and they are confirmed to be sending reinforcements there. They had to go through government controlled territory to get there, but there's been some limited co-operation between the SDF and Syrian government in the past involving enclaves in each other's territory, and anyways it's not like the Syrian government has the werewithal to do anything about this even if they wanted to. There are reports of some clashes between the SDF and jihadis, but given how little territory the SDF controls in that region(outside of Aleppo they have another, larger enclave, but it's still pretty small compared to the other factions' territory and their own primary territory in the east) I don't know how much of a factor they'll be.

There's already been at least one high-ranking Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps advisor killed, and while Russia's ground forces have been hauling ass out of the region at least one drone operating team got caught, with some members confirmed killed via video and the rest either captured or executed. Given that there have been multiple confirmed instances of HTS using armored vehicles as suicide-car-bombs, I think we can safely assume that the laws of war aren't something they care about, with that likely being as true for the Syrian government. There are no real "good" factions here, but the SNA and Kurds are at the very least less bad than either Assad's despotic tyranny or HTS's theocratic extremism. But since the latter two are the main combatants, this is primarily a red-on-red campaign, with the factions backed by Turkey and the West for the moment seeming to be focused more on making short-term gains and/or protecting what they've already got from being overrun. I'll try and post more as more information becomes available.

EDIT: Update-the SDF appears to be seizing territory west of Aleppo. If I had to make an uneducated guess, I'd say they're trying to create a connection between their enclave in Aleppo and either their larger enclave in the north or their main body of territory in the east, and/or to capture any towns that are majority-Kurdish to protect them from the other factions.

[beardedmrbean]

The mausoleum of Hafez Assad, who ruled Syria for decades before his death and succession by his son Bashar Assad, was stormed and set on fire in his hometown of Qardaha, according to footage verified by reporters.

A vast, elevated structure with intricate architecture and ornamentation, it was located in the Latakia region, the heartland of the Assad's Alawite community.

Videos showed rebel fighters and young locals watching it burn. 

The elder Assad took power in the second half of the 20th century by participating in multiple coups following Syria's independence from France.

His elder son, Bassel, was initially being groomed to take over from his father, but he died in a car accident in 1994.

Bashar took power when Hafez died in June of 2000.

What is happening in Syria?

After years of frozen conflict between the government forces of Bashar Assad, whose family had ruled Syria for 54 years, Islamist rebels and their allies went on a lighting offensive to capture Aleppo, Homs, and the capital Damascus.

Assad and his family have fled to Russia, where they were granted political asylum. Russia, as well as Iran, were major backers of Assad since the civil war began in 2011.

The rebel group now in charge of Syria's interim government is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Originally an offshoot of al-Qaida, they have tried to soften their image in recent years and have promised to respect religious minorities. 

Mohammed al-Bashir, who headed the rebels' "Salvation government" in their northwestern stronghold of Idlib, has been named interim prime minister. He has said he will stay in power during a transition period to last until March 2025.

Since Assad's ouster, Israel has stepped up its bombing campaign of a region inside Syrian territory on the Israeli border. The territory has been contested by Israel for decades. The Israeli military has denied claims it has pushed further in Syria than the demilitarized buffer zone.

[ritchiepage2001newaccount]

#CorpMedia #Idiocracy #Oligarchs #MegaBanks vs #Union #Occupy #NoDAPL #BLM #SDF #DACA #MeToo #Humanity #DemExit #FeelTheBern

#JinJiyanAzadi #BijiRojava Afrin invasion: Turkey attacks northern Syria’s democratic revolution — with Russian and US approval [UPDATES]

https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/afrin-invasion-turkey-northern-syria-democratic-revolution-russia-united-states

Three years after Kurdish-led forces liberated the northern Syrian city of Kobane from ISIS — after a months-long siege that captured the world’s imagination — the democratic, multi-ethnic and feminist revolution in Syria’s north is facing a new assault...

RELATED UPDATE: Thousands trapped in Syria’s Afrin district need protection and aid

RELATED UPDATE: Syria: Afrin, the starting point of Turkish forces' strategy

RELATED UPDATE: A New Face of Genocide: Settlements in Afrin, Syria

RELATED UPDATE: Afrin’s Syrian Kurds Continue to Pay Price of Turkey’s Occupation

RELATED UPDATE: HTS reaches Syria’s Afrin amid displacement

RELATED UPDATE: Afrin Liberation Forces announce the death of a fighter

RELATED UPDATE: Four more civilians kidnapped in occupied Afrin

RELATED UPDATE: Women in Afrin - al-Shahba: We will continue the struggle of Yusra, Lyman

FURTHER READING:

[casuallyodd]

Adding a story I read because as others have pointed out, it's getting buried by UHC and other news (news that matters but so does this)

A rapid advance by Syrian rebel groups on the country's capital has led to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's control of a nation his family had ruled for half a century.

Crowds celebrated the seismic political shift in the streets of Damascus overnight and into Sunday, as Syrian state television broadcast a statement from a group of rebels, one dressed in a black hoodie, who announced that Assad had been deposed.

And another, since the OP mentioned not trusting HTS

The group behind the lightning fast offensive across much of Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has held a consequential but checkered role in the country's more than 13 years of civil war.

...

HTS has transformed repeatedly over the years since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, with name changes, personnel splits and an expanded role in the country's northwest province of Idlib, where it has largely governed undisturbed for several years.

An Islamist group that the US and several other nations long ago designated a terrorist organization, it was known as Jabhat al-Nusra when it formed a formal alliance with Al-Qaida more than a decade ago.

But in recent years HTS has publicly disavowed international terrorism and tries to present a more moderate face, according to Charles Lister, the director of the Syria Program at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington D.C.

"The group has completely turned away from having any kind of global agenda. It has turned national," Lister says. "But unquestionably, the group retains very conservative religious foundations."

Holy shit. This is a historic day. After 14 years of hellish civil war, hundreds of thousands killed, and tens of millions displaced, Bashar Al-Assad's regime has been toppled. Whether or not the civil war is over yet or not remains to be seen, but the Assad family's tight grip over Syria, which has lasted for more than a half century, has been ended. I don't particularly trust HTS and I don't think anyone really should, but the fall of the totalitarian war criminal Bashar Al-Assad, who used chemical weapons against his own people on multiple occasions, is a positive development no matter how you slice it.

[mariacallous]

Last week, Syrian rebels led by the Sunni Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a surprise offensive, capturing significant parts of Aleppo, one of Syria’s largest cities, and advancing south into Hama province. This offensive—the most substantial territorial gain by rebel forces in nearly a decade—struck at the heart of what Russia once considered its defining achievement in Syria: the 2016 recapture of Aleppo.

In December 2016, Russian airpower, in coordination with Iranian-backed forces and the Syrian army, retook the city in an operation that demonstrated Moscow’s military effectiveness and cemented its role as the decisive external actor in Syria, overshadowing other actors such as the United States, which focused narrowly on countering the Islamic State, and Turkey, which was preoccupied with containing Kurdish forces near its border with Syria. The loss of Aleppo thus represents not just a military setback but a symbolic challenge to Russia’s claim of being able to decisively shape Syria’s future.

For Russia, the loss of regime control in Aleppo reveals deeper vulnerabilities in its Syrian strategy. The degradation of key ground forces such as Hezbollah—exacerbated by Israeli strikes against their commanders, forces, and logistics in Lebanon and Syria in recent months—and the endemic weakness of the Syrian army have created military gaps that Moscow has struggled to fill due to its primarily aerial deployment in Syria.

While Russia’s airpower in Syria remains relatively consistent with its 2018 levels, the redeployment of some ground forces in the past two years to secure strategic locations such as Tartus and Latakia has reduced its flexibility to address new threats effectively. Yet with established regional influence and significant military investments at stake, Russia cannot afford to retreat from Syria despite these mounting challenges. The naval base in Tartus secures Russia’s access to the Mediterranean, a critical geostrategic asset, while the Khmeimim air base near Latakia enables Moscow to project power across the region and maintain its role as a key player in Syria and beyond.

Russia’s response to the rebel offensive revealed significant operational constraints. When HTS first struck Aleppo, the speed and surprise of the advance left Moscow little time to organize effective air support. Though not lacking in air capacity, Russia struggled with the practical challenge of rapidly generating enough sorties to counter such a large-scale offensive. By the time rebels approached Hama, Russian forces managed to mount a more coordinated air campaign, with Russian and Syrian aircraft striking rebel positions across Hama, Aleppo, and Idlib. Russian sources claimed these strikes killed HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, though this remains unverified.

The offensive also exposed embarrassing weaknesses in the Assad regime’s defenses. At Kuweires air base near Aleppo, Syrian forces reportedly surrendered without resistance, allowing HTS to capture significant military assets. The seized equipment included a Mi-8 helicopter, an L-39 combat training aircraft, and reportedly an S-200 anti-aircraft missile system, along with Strela-10 and Pantsir-S1 air defense systems. Even more concerning was the fall of al-Safira, one of the regime’s largest military-industrial complexes and a critical defense manufacturing center.

The rebel advance toward Hama now threatens Russia’s strategic position in Syria. If HTS takes Hama, it could isolate the coastal provinces, as the city of Hama lies about 50 miles from Tartus and serves as a key junction connecting the interior to the Mediterranean coast. Meanwhile, a push to the city of Homs, roughly 75 miles from Latakia and 50 miles from Tartus, would sever the land link to Russia’s Mediterranean bases at Latakia and Tartus from its limited forces in central and eastern Syria.

This geographic separation would severely hamper Russia’s ability to coordinate operations across Syria. The situation could deteriorate further if dormant rebel cells in the south reactivate, potentially fragmenting regime territory and straining Russia’s already limited military presence. Russia maintains a presence in southern Syria, particularly in Quneitra and Daraa provinces near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, where it has established military police observation posts to monitor cease-fires and regional tensions.

Beyond immediate military concerns, these developments expose Moscow’s growing challenges in preserving its influence in Syria. Since initiating its military intervention in 2015, Moscow’s influence in Syria has rested on several key elements: a partnership with Iran and its network of nonstate actors; coordination with Turkey, with a view to managing competing interests, such as Turkey’s concerns over Kurdish forces and Russia’s support for the Assad regime; a tenuous balancing act with Israel to prevent unintended military clashes and preserve deconfliction agreements; diplomatic outreach to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC); and efforts to maintain a working deconfliction mechanism with the United States.

However, each of these pillars has come under strain not only due to shifting realities in Syria but due to the spillover effects of Ukraine and Lebanon.

The Russian-Iranian partnership has been particularly critical to Russia’s objectives in Syria. This relationship was forged over shared concerns about the potential collapse of the Assad regime and the threat of Sunni extremism; it combined Russian airpower with ground forces from Iran and its allied militias. Iranian-supported groups such as Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias, the Afghan Fatemiyoun, and the Pakistani Zainabiyoun were instrumental in recapturing key territories. Their joint campaign helped reclaim Aleppo in 2016, a turning point in the Syrian civil war.

Russia’s approach to Iran in Syria has shifted dramatically since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Moscow previously balanced between Iran and Israel, exemplified by its 2018 commitment to keep Iranian forces away from Israel’s border and its silence during Israeli strikes on Iranian assets. However, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and especially after Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, Moscow has aligned more closely with Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance.

Russia now openly criticizes Israeli strikes and has ceded positions in central and eastern Syria to Iranian-backed forces—ostensibly aimed at preventing rebel forces from exploiting Russia’s reduction of ground forces and private military contractors in eastern Syria.

Meanwhile, Israel has dramatically escalated its strikes against Iranian assets in Syria, moving beyond targeting weapons storage to systematically eliminating high-value personnel. The Israeli offensive in Lebanon and the decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership have particularly impacted Russia’s position in Syria. The degradation of Hezbollah, which served as Russia’s primary allied ground force in western and southern Syria, has created a significant operational gap that Russia, with its limited troop presence of approximately 2,000 to 4,000 personnel, has struggled to fill.

Recently, amid developments in Gaza and Lebanon, speculation arose that Israel might again seek Russia’s assistance in curbing Iran’s influence in Syria. However, recent events suggest that Russia lacks both the capability and, potentially, the willingness to constrain Iran. This dynamic could further strain Russia-Israel relations, which have already significantly deteriorated since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Russia and Turkey have frequently clashed over their competing visions for Syria’s future. Their relationship hit its lowest point in 2015, when Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber near the Syrian border. Both sides eventually reconciled, but even within the Astana process—a diplomatic framework launched in 2017 by Iran, Russia, and Turkey to facilitate negotiations on the Syrian conflict and de-escalation zones—they have pursued conflicting aims: Russia supports the Assad regime’s full territorial control, while Turkey backs opposition forces and maintains a military presence in northern Syria to prevent Kurdish autonomy there.

Since the start of its war in Ukraine, Russia has sought to maintain close relations with Turkey, a NATO member and critical trade partner for Moscow. This effort, coupled with Russia’s diminished resources across various regions, has positioned Ankara in a place of relative advantage. This dynamic is particularly evident in the South Caucasus, where Turkey, through its support for Azerbaijan against Armenia, has assumed a more active role in shaping regional dynamics.

The resurgence of HTS and Turkish-backed rebels will likely force Russia to reach new understandings with Turkey in Syria. While Moscow previously criticized Ankara sharply over rebel activities in Idlib, Russia’s current military constraints and need to maintain Turkish cooperation amid the Ukraine war—specifically for critical trade routes, access through the Bosporus for its naval operations, and to discourage Turkey from supplying Ukraine with advanced arms—have tempered its response.

Instead of denouncing Turkey for failing to control HTS, Russian officials have emphasized the Astana format as a mechanism for stability, suggesting that Moscow seeks accommodation rather than confrontation with Ankara.

Russia has promoted the normalization and reintegration of the Assad regime into the Arab world. These efforts culminated in Syria’s return to the Arab League in May 2023, as the GCC sought to acknowledge the reality of the regime’s control over much of Syria while reengaging with Damascus as a way to balance Iran’s influence. Russia’s objective has been to tap into Gulf financial resources for Syria’s reconstruction and economic recovery while enhancing the Assad regime’s international legitimacy.

An indication of this normalization was on display following the HTS offensive when Bashar al-Assad held a call with Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed, who affirmed Emirati support for Syrian “sovereignty.” Nevertheless, the ongoing threats posed by armed opposition groups underline that normalization with Arab countries, while diplomatically beneficial, has little tangible impact on stabilizing the situation on the ground.

Moscow’s strategy in Syria going forward likely will involve a pragmatic adaptation rather than a withdrawal or a complete overhaul. This may require Russia to reconcile with the reality that its reduced military influence demands greater flexibility with regional powers.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House adds another layer of complexity to Russia’s calculations. A second Trump presidency might seek a grand bargain with Moscow, potentially offering a deal on Ukraine—such as freezing military aid or even recognizing Moscow’s territorial claims—in exchange for Russia helping to reduce Iran’s presence in Syria and facilitate a U.S. withdrawal from the region.

However, such a deal faces significant obstacles. Russia’s increased dependence on Iranian military support, both in Ukraine and Syria, makes Moscow unlikely to risk this crucial partnership. Moreover, Russia’s diminished leverage in Syria raises questions about its ability to deliver on any promises regarding Iranian influence, even if it wanted to.

Syria’s future trajectory will likely create new complications. Israel, faced with Russia’s inability or unwillingness to constrain Iran in Syria, may intensify its unilateral strikes against Iranian assets. Turkey may push for greater influence in the north, leveraging Russia’s need for cooperation to expand its sphere of control.

These dynamics suggest Syria is increasingly being divided into spheres of influence, with Russia focused primarily on securing its core interests along the Mediterranean coast. Though Russia is unlikely to move ground forces from Ukraine, any threat to its assets in Tartus and Latakia would likely see a redeployment of private military contractors or attempts to curry favor with Iran in hopes of ground reinforcements.

Rather than reevaluating its commitment to the Assad regime, Moscow appears determined to preserve its Syrian presence by recalibrating its methods.

[news365timesindia]

[ad_1] Approximately, 2,000 American troops are currently deployed to Syria, up from the previously reported 1,100, the Department of Defense (DoD) has announced. “We have been briefing [the media] regularly that there are approximately 900 U.S. troops in Syria,” Pentagon Spokesperson Pat Ryder told reporters on Thursday. “These forces, which augment the defeat-ISIS (Islamic State, banned in Russia) mission, were there before the fall of the Assad regime,” Ryder said. Ryder did not specify the type of troops that arrived in Syria to fight the Islamic State, describing them as “temporary rotational forces that deploy to meet shifting mission requirements, whereas the core 900 deployers are on longer-term deployments.” He explained that such fluctuations in numbers of personnel are often quite common, and that the additional forces have been in place since before the December 8 downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. At the briefing Ryder said the Defence Department is prepared to continue carrying out its mission despite the potential for a partial government shutdown beginning Saturday. On November 27, Syria’s armed opposition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a large-scale offensive against government forces in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib. By December 7, President Bashar Assad’s opponents had seized several major cities, including Aleppo, Hama, Daraa, and Homs. On December 8, they entered Damascus, forcing the army to withdraw from the capital subsequently Assad resigned and left the country. It led to the end of more than 50 years of the al-Assad family’s iron-fist rule over Syria. On December 10, Mohammed al-Bashir announced his appointment as head of Syria’s interim government until March 1, 2025. [ad_2] Source link

[darkmaga-returns]

Professor says it remains Israeli leader's goal to drag the U.S. into war for Israel

Dec 03, 2024

Jeffery Sachs, the Columbia economist, said in an interview with Piers Morgan Tuesday that the U.S., Turkey, and Israel are likely behind the rebel offensive in Syria that hopes to result in Syria’s Bashar al-Assad’s demise.

He said it was “interesting” that the U.S. referred to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham [HTS], the main Turkish-backed group invading Syria’s Aleppo, a “terrorist group” despite Washington’s obvious role in the attack.

He noted that Jake Sullivan, U.S. President Joe Biden’s warhawk national security adviser, appeared on CNN to admit that HTS is a terror organization, but said: “At the same time, of course, we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure. So it’s a complicated situation.”

Sachs said the attack in Syria is clearly a U.S.-Turkish-Israeli operation that is part of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-term gameplan that involves overthrowing governments in neighboring countries that support Palestinians.

He said Turkey also has its own interests involved, especially when it comes to the Kurds in northern Syria, but for Israel, this is “standard” operations.

“Overthrow governments in the neighborhood, expand the war, draw the United States in…and the U.S. is always available at Israel’s behest to play games and expand wars. And that’s what we’re seeing right now.”

He said, at the core, the rebel attack is a Netanyahu operation.

Sachs said he does not believe that Assad is in any danger of overthrow at the moment.

The invasion is still in its infancy and it appears that there are several groups that have aligned themselves with HTS. A reporter from the AFP located in Idlib said the “jihadists and their Turkey-backed allies took orders from a joint operations command.”

It is believed that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan aims to take advantage of Assad’s backers who are entangled in their own wars.