#Georgia Senate Race 2022

[ausetkmt]

Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is defending his Senate seat against Republican challenger Herschel Walker in a runoff election in Georgia Tuesday, after days of record-breaking early voting in the state. Polls close in Georgia at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday 12/06/2022. 

What is a runoff election, and how will it work in Georgia's Senate race?   

Since Democrats flipped the seat in Pennsylvania and successfully defended the other seats in play in the November midterm elections, Democrats will retain control of the Senate, regardless of the outcome on Tuesday. But they will have more power if they control the chamber 51-49 since they will not have to work out a power-sharing agreement with Republicans. This will be the last election of the 2022 midterm cycle. 

Polls close in Georgia at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday 12/06/2022. 

Although Warnock held a narrow lead over Walker on Election Day, he did not win more than 50% of the vote, which is required to avoid a runoff in Georgia. 

According to exit polls on Election Day, voters in Georgia were split in their views of the most important qualities in a candidate: 36% said it was most important that the candidate shared their values, while 32% said a candidate's honesty and integrity were most important to them.

Ahead of the general election, Walker's campaign was rocked in October by allegations that he paid for at least one woman to have an abortion. He has denied the allegations, and national Republicans stuck by him. 

A record-breaking number of early voters have turned out in the runoff, smashing all previous records. 

Former President Barack Obama campaigned with Warnock last week, although President Biden, who flipped the state in 2020, has not visited the Peach State to stump for Warnock. Former President Donald Trump has not campaigned in person with Walker in the runoff but was scheduled to hold a tele-rally for Walker Monday night.

Georgia played a key role in the 2020 elections, when the races for both Senate seats went into special runoff elections in January 2021, ultimately flipping both seats from Republican to Democratic. Republican incumbent Sen. David Perdue led Jon Ossoff after Election Night with 49.7% of the vote, but he ended up falling short in the runoff on Jan. 5, 2021. In the race for the other seat, Warnock led incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler in a 21-person race on Election Day, and he prevailed in the special election to fill the vacancy left when Sen. Johnny Isakson stepped down.

[aulunthe]

Georgia Senate Runoff Today 12-06-2022 Vote Rafael #Warnock

Return Warnock to the U.S. Senate to continue working.

[welcometoqueer]

U.S. Recount Updates/News:

Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race will officially go to a recount. GOP candidate David McCormick is leading incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey by less than 0.5% in the vote total, triggering an automatic recount under state law.

Furthermore,

Election and cybersecurity experts sent a formal letter to Vice President Kamala Harris urging a recount in key states, citing potential breaches in voting machines and the fact that voting systems were breached by Trump allies in 2021 and 2022.

https://freespeechforpeople.org/computer-scientists-breaches-of-voting-system-software-warrant-recounts-to-ensure-election-verification/

Cited evidence within the footnotes include:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2022/08/15/sidney-powell-coffee-county-sullivan-strickler/

Additionally,

The Nevada Secretary of State issued a violation notice regarding election security. A police report has been filed after evidence emerged indicating that Nevada officials may have removed 26,902 ballots from their reported mail-in ballot totals.

[ID:

Three images.

The first is a statement regarding a recount being triggered in the Pennsylvania Senate race. It reads:

“Unofficial Results in U.S. Senate Race Trigger Legally Required Automatic State Recount

Harrisburg, PA — Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt announced today that unofficial results in the Nov. 5 general election race for U.S.

Senate have triggered a legally required statewide recount.

Senator Bob Casey and Dave McCormick have vote totals within the one-half of 1 percent margin that triggers a mandatory recount under state law.

As of today, the unofficial returns for the U.S. Senate race submitted by all 67 counties show the following results for the top two candidates:

Robert P. Casey Jr. - 3,350,972 (48.50%)

David H. McCormick - 3,380,310 (48.93%)

Once counties finish counting their ballots, they must begin the recount no later than Wednesday, Nov. 20. They must complete the recount by noon on Nov. 26 and must report results to the Secretary by noon on Nov. 27. Results of the recount will not be published until Nov. 27.

The Department estimates that the recount cost will exceed $1 million of taxpayer funds.

This is the eighth time the automatic recount provision has been triggered since the passage of Act 97 of 2004. In the four cases in which the recount was carried out, the initial results of the election were affirmed. Those recounts and the costs for each were as follows:

2022 primary: Oz vs. McCormick, Republican race for U.S. Senate, $1,052,609.

2021 general: Dumas vs. Crompton, Commonwealth Court, $1,117,180.

2011 primary: Boockvar vs. Ernsberger, Democratic race for Commonwealth Court, $525,006.70.

2009 general: Lazarus vs. Colville vs. Smith, Superior Court race, $541,698.56.

For more information about the legally mandated automatic recount procedures, see the Department's directive on this topic (link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com).

Update on outstanding ballot totals

As of this afternoon, county election officials reported there are 60,366 uncounted provisional ballots and 20,155 uncounted mail-in and absentee ballots. That 80,521 total includes all ballots for which county boards of elections have not yet made a final resolution regarding their validity or eligibility to be counted.

As of the issuance of this release, the Department's election returns page [link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com] reflects the unofficial totals that counties have reported. These numbers will change beginning Thursday morning, Nov. 14, as counties continue to canvass provisional ballots and otherwise count ballots. These changes are unrelated to the recount.”

The second image depicts the first page of a formal letter addressed to Vice President Kamala Harris from election security experts urging an election recount in key states. It reads:

“November 13, 2024

The Honorable Kamala Harris

The White House

Office of the Vice President

1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, N. W.

Washington, DC 20500

Dear Vice President Harris,

We write to alert you to serious election security breaches that have threatened the security and integrity of the 2024 elections, and to identify ways to ensure that the will of the voters is reflected and that voters should have confidence in the result. The most effective manner of doing so is through targeted recounts requested by the candidate. In the light of the breaches we ask that you formally request hand recounts in at least the states of Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. We have no evidence that the outcomes of the elections in those states were actually compromised as a result of the security breaches, and we are not suggesting that they were. But binding risk-limiting audits (RLAs) or hand recounts should be routine for all elections, especially when the stakes are high and the results are close. We believe that, under the current circumstances when massive software breaches are known and documented, recounts are necessary and appropriate to remove all potential doubt and to set an example for security best practices in all elections.

In 2022, records, video camera footage, and deposition testimony produced in a civil case in Georgia' disclosed that its voting system, used statewide, had been breached over multiple days by operatives hired by attorneys for Donald Trump. The evidence showed that the operatives made copies of the software”

(The page cuts off here).

Below there are footnotes with cited evidence for grounds to request a recount.

“No. 17-cv-02989-AT (N.D. Ga. filed Aug. 8, 2017).

1. Emma Brown, Jon Swaine, Aaron C. Davis, Amy Gardner, "Trump-allied lawyers pursued voting machine data in multiple states, records reveal," The Washington Post, (August 15, 2022). Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2022/08/15/sidney-powell-coffee-county-sullivan-strickler/

3 Kate Brumback, "Video fills in details on alleged Ga. election system breach," The Associated Press, (September 6, 2022). Available at: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-technology-donald-trump-voting-92c0ace71d7bee6151dd33938688371e

The third image is an excerpt of the Election Security Violation Notice issued by the Nevada Secretary of State. It reads:

“ELECTION INTEGRITY VIOLATION REPORT

The information you report on this form may be used to help us investigate violations of Nevada election laws. When completed, mail, email, or fax your form and supporting documents to the office listed above. Upon receipt, your complaint will be reviewed by a member of our staff. The length of this process can vary depending on the circumstances and information you provide with your complaint. The Office of the Secretary of State may contact you if additional information is needed.

INSTRUCTIONS: Please TYPE/PRINT your complaint in dark ink. You must write LEGIBLY. All fields MUST be completed.

SECTION 3.

COMPLAINT IS AGAINST

Please detail the nature of your complaint. Include the name and contact information (if known) of the individual, candidate, campaign, or group that is the subject of your complaint. Your complaint must also include a clear and concise statement of facts sufficient to establish that the alleged violation occurred. Any relevant documents or other evidence that support your complaint should be listed and attached. You may attach additional sheets if necessary.

On 11-8-24, the mail ballot accepted list deleted 28,320 ballots from Clark County. At this same time, Sam Brown lost his lead. These ballots were accepted on 11-7-24 and then on 11-8-24 for the first time since 10-16-24 and reporting began, ballots were deleted from 2 counties. Washoe and Clark.

See ATTACHED.”

/end ID]

[beardedmrbean]

Senator Bernie Sanders ripped the Democratic Party after Vice President Kamala Harris' loss to President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday.

Trump appeared poised to sweep the battleground states, securing another term as president, as Harris underperformed with voters across the country following the at-times tense campaign. Democrats have already begun the autopsy on the election results as Harris supporters express a mix of outrage and despondence.

Sanders, a Vermont independent who caucuses with Democrats who won reelection Tuesday night, issued a scathing statement Wednesday afternoon about the Democrats' performance.

"It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them," Sanders wrote. "First, it was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well."

He chastised Democratic leadership for defending "the status quo" while Americans "are angry and want change."

"Will the big money interests and well-paid consultants who control the Democratic Party learn any real lessons from this disastrous campaign? Will they understand the pain and political alienation that tens of millions of Americans are experiencing? Do they have any ideas as to how we can take on the increasingly powerful Oligarchy which has so much economic and political power? Probably not," Sanders wrote.

Sanders raised concerns about the Democratic Party's response to several key issues, including health care, drug prices, the rise of artificial intelligence and the U.S. response to the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

"In the coming weeks and months those of us concerned about grassroots democracy and economic justice need to have some very serious political discussions," he wrote.

Newsweek reached out to Harris' campaign for comment via email.

Polls in the final stretch showed a tight race between Harris and Trump, with both campaigns always expecting that key battlegrounds would come down to the wire.

By Wednesday evening, networks had called Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for Trump. He also held leads in Arizona and Nevada, though those states remained uncalled by about 6 p.m. ET.

Democrats are already divided about why Harris lost. Progressives are blaming Harris' tack to the center for her defeat. They have also argued that her support for Israel cost her votes in Michigan. Some have raised concerns about voter perceptions of Harris as being too liberal.

Exit polls showed that the economy and concerns about democracy motivated voters. Harris had sought to dispel concerns about the economy, as the inflation rate has dropped since 2022. But voters still voiced overall dissatisfaction with the state of the financial affairs and the direction of the country.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Mike Luckovich, Atlanta Journal Constitution

* * * *

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

October 18, 2024

Heather Cox Richardson

Oct 19, 2024

The events of January 6, 2021, overshadowed those of January 5, 2021, but that day was crucially important in a different way: Georgia voters elected two Democrats, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, to the U.S. Senate. Warnock and Ossoff brought the total of Democrats in the Senate to 48, and since two Independents—Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont—caucus with the Democrats and because in an evenly split Senate the majority goes to the party in the White House, their election gave Democrats control of the Senate.

Without that majority, the Biden-Harris agenda that built the U.S. economy into what The Economist this week called “the envy of the world” would never have passed. There would have been no American Rescue Plan, no Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, no CHIPS and Science Act, no Safer Communities Act, no PACT Act, no Inflation Reduction Act. 

In an era when Republicans refuse to vote for any Democratic measures no matter how popular they are, control of the Senate is vital. The Senate majority leader decides what measures can come to the floor for consideration, so a leader can shut out anything his party doesn’t like. The Senate also controls the confirmation of federal judges, including members of the Supreme Court. 

During the Trump years, then–Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) stacked the courts with MAGA judges, some of whom are now so reliably handing down right-wing decisions that plaintiffs routinely “shop” for them to get the decisions they want. And with Trump’s three hand-picked extremists at the Supreme Court, challenging those decisions simply writes that extremism more fully into law. 

As Trump continues to crumble—he canceled another appearance today, and in a statement almost certainly designed to leak, an advisor said he was “exhausted”—and as Democrats are favored to take the House, Republicans are waging a fierce battle to take control of the Senate. 

They are starting with an advantage. There are 34 Senate seats on the ballot this year, and Democrats are defending 23 of them while Republicans are defending just 11. Republicans need to pick up one seat to control the Senate if Trump wins the White House, and two if Harris wins. 

The McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund PAC has, so far, spent more than $140 million in this year’s Senate races, with more than $136 million going to attack ads. In the four races that are most vulnerable for Democrats—Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—the Senate Leadership Fund has spent $17.85 million (MT), $55.5 million (OH), $38.1 million (PA), and $23.6 million (WI).

In each of those four races, that money is bolstering extremely wealthy Republican challengers. In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy, running against Senator Jon Tester, would be among the ten wealthiest senators if elected: his financial disclosures put his net worth at between $74 million and $260 million. Republican Bernie Moreno, who is challenging Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, has a net worth between $38 million and $172.7 million. In the Pennsylvania race, David McCormick (who actually appears to live in Connecticut) reported assets of $116 million to $290 million in 2022. In Wisconsin’s race, Republican Eric Hovde (who lived in an ocean-view mansion in Laguna Beach, California, until he decided to run for the Senate from Wisconsin) would also be one of the Senate’s richest members. His financial disclosures say his net worth is between $195.5 million and $564.4 million. 

This is not a coincidence. Knowing that fundraising would be difficult this year with Trump steering funds from the Republican National Committee primarily to himself, Republican Party leaders actively recruited candidates who could pour their own money into their campaigns. By the end of June, Sheehy had put $10.7 million into his own race; Moreno had put in $4.5 million by mid-October. McCormick had loaned his campaign more than $4 million by the end of June; Hovde put in $8 million by the end of March. 

This moment echoes the late nineteenth century, when wealthy businessmen sought a Senate seat as a capstone to their success, a perch from which they could protect the interests of other men like themselves. In that era it was relatively easy for a man like Nevada’s William Sharon to buy himself a Senate seat because the Constitution had established that state legislatures would elect their state’s senators. Determined to win a Senate seat to protect his railroad interests “regardless of expense,” Sharon bought a newspaper to flood the state capital with his own praise. The legislature gave him the seat in 1874. 

By the 1880s, even the staunchly pro-business Chicago Tribune complained: “Behind every one of half of the portly and well dressed members of the Senate can be seen the outlines of some corporation interested in getting or preventing legislation.” In 1892 the newly formed Populist Party met in Omaha, Nebraska, “to restore the government of the Republic to the hands of ‘the plain people,’ with which class it originated.” They called for the people to bypass the corrupt legislatures and elect senators directly. 

In 1900, William A. Clark of Montana provided the kick their proposal needed. 

Clark had arrived at the newly opened gold fields in Montana Territory in 1863 and transferred the money he made as a mule trader into banking. He made a fortune repossessing mining properties when owners defaulted on their loans. He invested that fortune in smelters, railroads, a newspaper, and copper mining, becoming one of the state’s famous Copper Kings. In 1889 he was the president of the Montana constitutional convention, where he made sure that mine owners could run the state as they wished. 

By 1890, Clark had his eyes on a Senate seat. He failed to get the support of the legislature in that year, and for the next decade he and his rival copper magnate Marcus Daly of the Anaconda Company poured vast sums of money into influencing the economy of the state, the location of the capital, and the state’s politics. 

Clark finally won his election in 1899, but on the same day he presented his credentials to the Senate, his opponents filed a petition charging him with bribery. An extensive investigation revealed that Clark had bought his seat with bribes ranging from $240 to $100,000, equivalent to almost $4 million today. His representatives had paid debts, bought ranches, and even handed envelopes of cash to legislators. The investigation also showed that Daly had spent a fortune trying to block Clark’s election. 

Montana politics, it seemed, had become a rich man’s game.

Aware that the Senate would vote to remove him from his seat, Clark resigned in May 1900. In January 1901 a new Montana legislature containing many of the same men Clark had paid off in 1899 elected him again to the same term from which he had been forced to resign. After an undistinguished term, he retired from the Senate in 1907.

Clark’s blatant purchase of a Senate seat added momentum to the demand for the direct election of senators, and in 1913 the Seventeenth Amendment to the Constitution established that the power to elect senators must rest in the hands of voters. That measure was supposed to make sure that wealth could not buy a Senate seat.

That the ability to self-fund a campaign is once again a key factor in winning a Senate seat from Montana—and Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—seems to be history repeating.

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Markos Moulitsas (kos) at Daily Kos:

Donald Trump had no shortage of potential vice presidential running mates. There were several seemingly serious contenders on the list, including Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Tim Scott of South Carolina, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. Trump picked Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio. He was the worst possible choice.  In some ways, VP picks are overrated, rarely making a meaningful dent in the overall dynamics of the race. Usually, they work best when they mobilize the candidate’s base. Vance isn’t the worst pick in that regard, having made a hard-right turn in recent years that should delight the MAGA faithful. 

But this isn’t a normal election year. Vice presidential picks can serve a useful purpose as attack dogs when the presidential candidate needs to stay above the fray. Dick Cheney comes to mind, or Sarah Palin. The least effective running mates are those who have with zero credibility with the base, like Hillary Clinton’s pick, Sen. Tim Kaine.  Trump doesn’t need an attack dog. No one will mobilize the MAGA base more effectively than him, and he’s not shy about what he says. Trump isn’t staying above any fray.  Other VP picks help fill a hole in a presidential candidate’s resume, such as when Joe Biden shored up Barack Obama’s perceived lack of foreign policy experience (a thing no voter ever cared about, but in those days, the David Broders of the Capitol Hill commentariat had to be appeased). 

[...] All of those picks could’ve served Trump well strategically. Instead, he picked Vance, who once called Trump “America’s Hitler.”  Indeed, we have a vast catalog of Vance quotes lambasting Trump. Stories detailing the ripostes are forthcoming, but include such gems as, “a lot of people think Trump is just the first to appeal to the racism and xenophobia that were already there, but I think he’s making the problem worse," and, ”[Trump] is ultimately a destructive force." But there is nothing Trump loves more than a former enemy bending the knee—and Vance has done so with extreme relish and obsequiousness.  So what does Vance bring to the ticket? 

He can’t deliver the base any more effectively than Trump can. Electorally, he dramatically underperformed in his Senate race, winning by just 6 percentage points in 2022. His Republican predecessor, Sen. Rob Portman, won it by 21 points in 2016. (Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2020 with a presidential-year electorate.) Vance was a disastrous candidate and hopeless fundraiser, forcing Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell to spend $32 million to save Vance’s ass. That was money that could have been spent against Democratic opponents including Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, or John Fetterman in Pennsylvania. All four won by less than 5 points, and with that, Democrats held on to the Senate.  It figures that Trump would pick Vance, and not an actual winner. Trump rarely associates with competent, effective people. 

And despite Vance’s past criticism of Trump, his record is everything Democrats could wish to run against, including directly thanking the authors of Project 2025, the extremist blueprint for Trump’s next term in office.  Put another way, Trump needs all the help he can get to expand his base. By choosing Vance, he specifically demonstrated that he has no interest in doing that. 

The pick of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance to join Donald Trump on the ticket was all about doubling down on the MAGA base with no intent to reach out to swing voters, disillusioned Ds, and Trump-skeptical Rs. If Trump were serious about reaching beyond his base, then he would have picked either Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, or Florida Senator Marco Rubio.

This may be the pick that dooms Trump’s chances to win again.

See Also:

Wake Up To Politics: Trump’s confidence play

[misfitwashere]

October 18, 2024

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

OCT 19

The events of January 6, 2021, overshadowed those of January 5, 2021, but that day was crucially important in a different way: Georgia voters elected two Democrats, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, to the U.S. Senate. Warnock and Ossoff brought the total of Democrats in the Senate to 48, and since two Independents—Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont—caucus with the Democrats and because in an evenly split Senate the majority goes to the party in the White House, their election gave Democrats control of the Senate.

Without that majority, the Biden-Harris agenda that built the U.S. economy into what The Economist this week called “the envy of the world” would never have passed. There would have been no American Rescue Plan, no Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, no CHIPS and Science Act, no Safer Communities Act, no PACT Act, no Inflation Reduction Act. 

In an era when Republicans refuse to vote for any Democratic measures no matter how popular they are, control of the Senate is vital. The Senate majority leader decides what measures can come to the floor for consideration, so a leader can shut out anything his party doesn’t like. The Senate also controls the confirmation of federal judges, including members of the Supreme Court. 

During the Trump years, then–Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) stacked the courts with MAGA judges, some of whom are now so reliably handing down right-wing decisions that plaintiffs routinely “shop” for them to get the decisions they want. And with Trump’s three hand-picked extremists at the Supreme Court, challenging those decisions simply writes that extremism more fully into law. 

As Trump continues to crumble—he canceled another appearance today, and in a statement almost certainly designed to leak, an advisor said he was “exhausted”—and as Democrats are favored to take the House, Republicans are waging a fierce battle to take control of the Senate. 

They are starting with an advantage. There are 34 Senate seats on the ballot this year, and Democrats are defending 23 of them while Republicans are defending just 11. Republicans need to pick up one seat to control the Senate if Trump wins the White House, and two if Harris wins. 

The McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund PAC has, so far, spent more than $140 million in this year’s Senate races, with more than $136 million going to attack ads. In the four races that are most vulnerable for Democrats—Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—the Senate Leadership Fund has spent $17.85 million (MT), $55.5 million (OH), $38.1 million (PA), and $23.6 million (WI).

In each of those four races, that money is bolstering extremely wealthy Republican challengers. In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy, running against Senator Jon Tester, would be among the ten wealthiest senators if elected: his financial disclosures put his net worth at between $74 million and $260 million. Republican Bernie Moreno, who is challenging Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, has a net worth between $38 million and $172.7 million. In the Pennsylvania race, David McCormick (who actually appears to live in Connecticut) reported assets of $116 million to $290 million in 2022. In Wisconsin’s race, Republican Eric Hovde (who lived in an ocean-view mansion in Laguna Beach, California, until he decided to run for the Senate from Wisconsin) would also be one of the Senate’s richest members. His financial disclosures say his net worth is between $195.5 million and $564.4 million. 

This is not a coincidence. Knowing that fundraising would be difficult this year with Trump steering funds from the Republican National Committee primarily to himself, Republican Party leaders actively recruited candidates who could pour their own money into their campaigns. By the end of June, Sheehy had put $10.7 million into his own race; Moreno had put in $4.5 million by mid-October. McCormick had loaned his campaign more than $4 million by the end of June; Hovde put in $8 million by the end of March. 

This moment echoes the late nineteenth century, when wealthy businessmen sought a Senate seat as a capstone to their success, a perch from which they could protect the interests of other men like themselves. In that era it was relatively easy for a man like Nevada’s William Sharon to buy himself a Senate seat because the Constitution had established that state legislatures would elect their state’s senators. Determined to win a Senate seat to protect his railroad interests “regardless of expense,” Sharon bought a newspaper to flood the state capital with his own praise. The legislature gave him the seat in 1874. 

By the 1880s, even the staunchly pro-business Chicago Tribune complained: “Behind every one of half of the portly and well dressed members of the Senate can be seen the outlines of some corporation interested in getting or preventing legislation.” In 1892 the newly formed Populist Party met in Omaha, Nebraska, “to restore the government of the Republic to the hands of ‘the plain people,’ with which class it originated.” They called for the people to bypass the corrupt legislatures and elect senators directly. 

In 1900, William A. Clark of Montana provided the kick their proposal needed. 

Clark had arrived at the newly opened gold fields in Montana Territory in 1863 and transferred the money he made as a mule trader into banking. He made a fortune repossessing mining properties when owners defaulted on their loans. He invested that fortune in smelters, railroads, a newspaper, and copper mining, becoming one of the state’s famous Copper Kings. In 1889 he was the president of the Montana constitutional convention, where he made sure that mine owners could run the state as they wished. 

By 1890, Clark had his eyes on a Senate seat. He failed to get the support of the legislature in that year, and for the next decade he and his rival copper magnate Marcus Daly of the Anaconda Company poured vast sums of money into influencing the economy of the state, the location of the capital, and the state’s politics. 

Clark finally won his election in 1899, but on the same day he presented his credentials to the Senate, his opponents filed a petition charging him with bribery. An extensive investigation revealed that Clark had bought his seat with bribes ranging from $240 to $100,000, equivalent to almost $4 million today. His representatives had paid debts, bought ranches, and even handed envelopes of cash to legislators. The investigation also showed that Daly had spent a fortune trying to block Clark’s election. 

Montana politics, it seemed, had become a rich man’s game.

Aware that the Senate would vote to remove him from his seat, Clark resigned in May 1900. In January 1901 a new Montana legislature containing many of the same men Clark had paid off in 1899 elected him again to the same term from which he had been forced to resign. After an undistinguished term, he retired from the Senate in 1907.

Clark’s blatant purchase of a Senate seat added momentum to the demand for the direct election of senators, and in 1913 the Seventeenth Amendment to the Constitution established that the power to elect senators must rest in the hands of voters. That measure was supposed to make sure that wealth could not buy a Senate seat.

That the ability to self-fund a campaign is once again a key factor in winning a Senate seat from Montana—and Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—seems to be history repeating.

—

[dynamicity-keysmash]

For funsies, I'm gonna formally make an election prediction and see if it's right in a few days.

The Presidency

I predict Harris 286 vs Trump 252 in the electoral college. She'll win Wl, MI, PA, NV, and GA while losing NC and AZ.

I think that Harris's increased strength with college educated whites and white women will deliver WI, MI, and PA. The Harry Reid political machine's insane turnout game will deliver NV. I think that a combination of enthusiasm, and the increased college-educated, suburban population will deliver Georgia. I think waning strength with minority men and the sheer inertia of historical Republican support will lose AZ and NC for Harris.

I predict that the popular vote will be 50-47 in favor of Harris (+2.5D).

The Senate

I think that the Senate will end up with a one seat Republican majority (51R-49D). I think that Dems will hold every seat except WV and MT and win all of the swing state Senate races. So Tester will lose and Brown will win. I don't think that Dems will flip any Republican seats, nor will Osborn win in Nebraska.

The House

I predict that Dems will win the house narrowly with a 5-10 seat majority. I think that most of the gains will come from recovering ground in NY and CA while holding onto some razor-thin swing districts they won in 2022.

[ausetkmt]

ATLANTA — Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock has built up an advantage in Georgia’s record-breaking early vote, putting Republican Herschel Walker in a position where he’ll need to deliver big on Election Day to win in Tuesday’s Senate runoff.

Georgians have been bombarded with TV ads, radio messages, direct mail and ceaseless fundraising appeals in the closely watched Senate race. Many of them are ready for it to be over.

“It’s been very, very exhausting,” said Ana Gomez, a sophomore at Georgia Tech who attended Warnock's rally on campus Monday.

Over the long and grueling campaign, the two candidates have employed different strategies, with Warnock putting a premium on appeals to moderates and independents as Walker seeks to energize the Republican base in this former GOP stronghold.

On the airwaves, Warnock and his Democratic allies have outspent Republicans since the Nov. 8 general election.

But on the final day before the runoff, it was all about juicing turnout as each candidate held a packed schedule of events, focusing on areas where they have the strongest voter appeal.

Warnock hosted events in the Atlanta area with Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., as well as 25-year-old Rep.-elect Maxwell Frost, D-Fla., and the rapper Killer Mike, with an evening rally scheduled in the heart of the city.

Meanwhile, Walker held a series of rallies in the rural outskirts of the city, where he needs to run up the score to withstand the onslaught of Democratic votes in the Atlanta metropolitan area, and was set to close with an evening rally in suburban Cobb County.

“Everyone says: Gosh, why did Herschel get in this? What has this been like for me?” Walker’s wife, Julie Blanchard, said to a crowd on Monday. “And you know what? Our country’s worth it. It doesn’t matter what it’s like. It doesn’t matter if you get attacked.”

“He loves this country. He loves God. And he wants to fight for our country,” she said. “We don’t want to wake up like Venezuela.”

Warnock is entering the runoff from a position of strength. He leads among likely voters by 4 percentage points in a CNN poll published Friday, and by 5 points in a UMass Lowell poll out Monday.

An early vote that topped 1.85 million showed other positive signs for Warnock, with Democrats enjoying a 13-point edge — larger than the party’s 8-point lead in November’s early vote, according to TargetSmart’s model.

But Walker is widely expected to win more of the votes cast on Election Day. The question is whether he’ll win it by a wide enough margin to overcome his deficit heading into Tuesday.

Robert Trim, a Cobb County Republican who ran unsuccessfully for a state house seat last month, said he’ll vote for Walker on Tuesday, because a 50th GOP seat is “critically important” for committee power and denying Democrats unilateral subpoena authority.

But Trim conceded he’s pessimistic about Walker’s chances, comparing his run to former Republican Sen. David Perdue's failed runoff bid in 2020, when he lost to Ossoff.

“I don’t feel very confident,” Trim said in an interview. “I never have felt confident in where he’s positioned. So I’m probably less confident now than I was before.”

He said Democrats clinching Senate control “probably does sap some energy” because “most voters don’t understand” why an extra seat for the GOP minority changes the dynamics in Washington.

On TV, Walker is running an ad that shows him standing with Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who handily won his re-election bid last month. Kemp is a foe of former President Donald Trump, whose early endorsement of Walker propelled him in the Senate race. But Trump, who became the first Republican to lose Georgia since 1992, has not campaigned for Walker in the runoff.

Walker “needs to win Election Day by double digits,” said Cody Hall, an adviser to Kemp, who said the Republican candidate will have to outperform his advantage from November's Election Day. “He’s gonna need to do better than that margin, which his team realizes.”

“Yes, the early voting looks good for Warnock,” Hall told NBC News. “But I would just caution everyone that base Republican voters in the last couple of cycles have liked turning out on Election Day. And I think that is going to benefit Herschel.”

Walker has struggled with independent voters, losing them by 11 points in the general election, according to NBC News exit polls.

He has sought to tie Warnock to President Joe Biden, who is unpopular in the state, and blame the two of them for rising costs and crime. On the campaign trail, Walker has leaned into cultural conservatism, blasting “wokeness” in Washington, the teaching of “critical race theory,” objecting to transgender athletes and inveighing against pronoun use in the military.

“Why are they bringing pronouns in our military? Pronouns? What the heck is a pronoun?” Walker told a crowd Sunday in Loganville. “I’m sick and tired of that pronoun stuff. Aren’t y’all sick and tired of that pronoun stuff? So why don’t we call this senator former senator? That’s his pronoun.”

Warnock has built his candidacy on a promise to work across the aisle with Republicans. Recently he has portrayed Walker as “woefully unfit” for the job, telling Georgians that he “doesn’t know what he’s talking about.”

On Monday, he told MSNBC's Joy Reid in Atlanta: “Given my opponent, this race is not even about Republican versus Democrat, red versus blue, right versus left. It’s right versus wrong, and I think people see that.”

The runoff election will be Warnock’s fifth time on the ballot in Georgia in about two years — one Democratic primary, two general elections and two runoffs. He won a special election in 2020 to capture the seat for two years, and the 2022 race will decide who holds it for the next six years.

“I started on this journey to the Senate about three years ago. And now there’s only one day left,” he said Monday at Georgia Tech. “But it all really comes down to this. We need you to show up. Are you ready to win this election?”

Walker also urged Georgians to cast their ballots on Tuesday, telling Sean Hannity on Fox News Monday night that his message to voters was: "If you don’t vote, you’re going to get more of Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden.”

While Biden has stayed away from Georgia, Warnock has received reinforcements from former President Barack Obama, who has visited Atlanta twice to rally voters for the state’s first Black senator. Frost, who was just elected and will be the first Gen Z member of Congress, rallied for him Monday.

“This isn’t a two-year term. This is six years of power — of a Black reverend organizer in the U.S. Senate for six years. So anyone who says it doesn’t matter is out of touch with the realities of what’s going on now,” Frost said in an interview. “It’s a numbers game in the United States Congress, and every number matters.”

[mariacallous]

Bipartisan report urges rethink of America’s Russia strategy

The bipartisan committee charged with supporting democracy and human rights in post-Soviet states is pushing for the United States to dump the post-Cold War status quo in its relations with Russia and label Moscow as a “persistent” threat to global security.

The report from the Helsinki Commission, which was obtained by The Hill ahead of publication, argues that Washington must reframe its thinking in how it approaches Russia, as it has with China over the past few years, and allocate resources accordingly. 

A priority focus of the report’s strategy is to ensure Ukraine’s victory in its defensive war against Russia, calling for “massive” military and humanitarian assistance for Kyiv and allowing Ukraine’s armed forces to strike deep into Russia with U.S. provided weapons. 

The report’s policy proposals go further than the Biden administration’s commitments to Ukraine and clash with positions held by former President Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, and his allies in Congress. 

Trump has long argued the U.S. is spending too much on European security. And he is campaigning on making a deal between Ukraine and Russia through direct negotiations with their leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin.

However, the Helsinki committee’s Republican chair, Rep. Joe Wilson (S.C.), dismissed the potential of Trump striking a deal with Putin. 

“No question to me that Donald Trump is going to see the insincerity of war criminal Putin,” Wilson told The Hill in a brief conversation about the report.

“Putin is not anybody that you can reach an agreement with, that would be substantive, that would hold.” 

Vice President Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, has largely outlined a continuation of President Biden’s policy for Ukraine. Ukraine hawks in both parties say the administration has been too slow in supplying Kyiv with the weapons it needs to repel Russia. 

But while the presidential race will surely factor into U.S. policy toward Ukraine and Russia in the years ahead, attitudes in Congress will also be crucial to setting priorities globally. 

Even as there is growing opposition to providing military and economic support to Ukraine in the Republican Party, GOP leaders focused on foreign policy are largely bullish on supporting Ukraine, ensuring commitments to NATO and bolstering democracy in post-Soviet states.

This includes Wilson, but also the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas); chair of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, Mike Turner (R-Ohio); Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky); and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee James E. Risch (R-Idaho), to name a few. 

These lawmakers are likely to embrace the report’s conclusions that “the United States must prepare for long-term contestation, understanding that Russia has a centuries-long history of violent imperialism toward its neighbors, Europe, and the world more broadly.”

The conclusions seem obvious given the scope of Moscow’s violations of international laws and norms: seizing Crimea and occupying the Donbas in 2014; the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022; its invasion and occupation of Georgia in 2008; the Kremlin’s attack on political dissidents at home and abroad; its interference in U.S. and other democratic elections; the ransoming of Americans jailed in Russia. 

Yet foreign policy orthodoxy changes slowly, and the prevailing wisdom since the end of the Cold War has been that cooperation with Russia and economic incentives would moderate its behavior. The Helsinki report seeks to bury that thinking. 

“I think the fundamental message is that we are breaking from 30 years of flawed policy,” said a congressional aid familiar with the report.

“One doesn’t need to look far to see that every single president within the first few months of their administration, goes and meets with Putin.” 

The U.S. and its allies in Europe are still figuring out how to deal with Russia more than 2 1/2 years since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration has generally shunned Russia diplomatically and sought to isolate it economically while maintaining some channels of communication to avoid escalations and deal with issues of mutual interest, such as negotiations to free prisoners. 

Some Republicans, frustrated by nearly three years of war and some $175 billion in U.S. support, have called for the U.S. to directly intervene in negotiations to end the war. And they warn against dismissing Russia’s nuclear threats as Ukraine takes the fight across the border. 

The Biden administration has delivered military support to Ukraine in small increments as a way to probe Russia’s redlines and guard against triggering Putin to follow through on his threats to deploy nuclear weapons. 

But Trump-aligned isolationists don’t want the U.S. involved at all. In an op-ed by former independent presidential contender-turned-Trump supporter Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Donald Trump Jr., the two argue that direct negotiations with Putin will end the war in Ukraine and “prevent nuclear devastation.” 

The Ukrainians and Kyiv’s most stalwart supporters have criticized this line of thinking, saying that Ukraine has repeatedly crossed what Russia has laid out as their “red lines” without spurring nuclear war. 

They further argue that Putin is a disingenuous negotiator and any deal that concedes Ukrainian territory to Russia will embolden the Russian leader to relaunch an expansionist war in Ukraine, further pursue aggression in neighboring, post-Soviet states and potentially attack NATO member states in which Moscow is already carrying out hybrid-warfare. 

The Helsinki report’s recommendations are that Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling “cannot simply be dismissed” but that the solution to this brinkmanship is to address it with “sound reasoning.” 

“We can’t let fear dominate how we think about this kind of stuff,” the congressional aide explained about the report’s recommendations — calling for laying out a plan to address and respond to possible nuclear threats and attacks.

The report wants to shift Washington’s thinking away from viewing Russia as a superpower and near-peer of the U.S. just because it holds nuclear weapons. 

And overall, the report argues for a U.S. that is fully engaged with allies across the world, in particular those countries on the front lines of Russian efforts at aggression, manipulation and coercion — an argument that pushes back against growing trends of isolationism, particularly in the GOP. 

This includes calls for increased military support, economic investment, development support and focus on soft power such as education and people-to-people exchanges. The U.S. should have a long-term strategy to support democratic governance and rule of law in countries vulnerable to threats from Russia, the report states. 

“Through persistent efforts geared towards fostering prosperity and democracy and countering Russia’s authoritarian influence, we can minimize Russia’s ability to threaten free societies,” the report states.

“This report will provide a roadmap for minimizing and containing Russia’s destructive behavior until the emergence of internal forces necessary to fundamentally change Russia emerge.”

[somethingusefulfromflorida]

People are acting like trump's trial is going to make him more popular and win him another term, but I don't see it. He lost the presidency in 2020 by the exact same margin in the electoral college as he "won" in 2016, and his handpicked candidates consistently lose vital races. Democrats lost the House in 2022, but made gains in the Senate AND flipped multiple state legislatures AND held all the swing state Secretary of State and Attorney General seats. Michigan flipped both houses blue, Pennsylvania flipped one house blue, Wisconsin flipped their Supreme Court, Dems held their own in Arizona and Georgia, all because voters were sick of trump and didn't want his cronies to be in charge anymore. Florida is a lost cause and Virginia appears to be trending that way, but trump isn't nearly as popular as the media wants everyone to think he is. He always says "I got more votes than any sitting president in history, almost 75 million," which is only impressive on paper if you don't know that the population grows, and he leaves out the fact that Joe Biden holds the record for most votes ever, over 80 million. I'm not gonna stand here and say that 2024 is going to be a blue wave by any stretch of the imagination. I think we're gonna lose the Senate which is the single most important thing about the following presidential term (JUDGES!), but the House is competitive and Kevin McCarthy is unpopular, and Biden is at an advantage because he's stable and hasn't dropped the ball nearly as hard as trump did in 2020 (covid and the George Floyd protests and skyrocketing unemployment, 2020 felt like the apocalypse).

I think 2024 will be closer than 2020, but I don't think the republicans will be able to win. Voters rebuked them across the board in 2022 (the House was gerrymandered in their favor, including illegal maps in Ohio and North Carolina that were struck down by their respective Supreme Courts but which the legislatures used anyway, and yet they only gained 9 seats in what was expected to be a 30 or 40 seat blowout). I'm optimistic, though not enthusiastic, and I'm ready for disappointment, but I honestly think trump is going to get his ass handed to him. He will try to run again in 2028 (though he'll probably be a convicted felon by then), and even though he'll have been responsible for republican losses in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024, magats will still worship at his feet. Federal prosecution will not make him more popular with independents, and he doesn't have any important secretaries of state in his pocket to deny the vote to Democrats. The only people stupid enough to believe his bullshit and take his side on the documents case are people who are already in his court to begin with.

He is incapable of growing an audience. He's a one-trick pony, he keeps "playing the hits" but people are bored and want new material.

[tomorrowusa]

The last undecided race in the 2022 midterms has a winner. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock has defeated Trump Republican Herschel Walker by at least 2.6% of the vote in the Georgia runoff. That may increase to 2.8% when some still uncounted ballots from Democratic areas are added to the tally.

This win gives Dems a 51-49 advantage in the US Senate.

This victory is an example of what old school GOTV can do. Sen. Warnock and the Democratic Party invested heavily in staff to get out the vote. The result was a disproportionately Democratic increase in turnout than in the November 8th  general election.

Dems improved more in populous cities and metropolitan areas and in counties in central Georgia with a relatively high percentage of African-American voters. The GOP improved over November 8th in the northern tiers of counties including Marjorie Taylor Greene‘s Congressional district in the northwest.

There’s no substitute for personally contacting voters one on one. Slacktivism on social media just doesn’t cut it. Facebook ads will get you only so far. To be a success politically it’s necessary to have local visibility. Dems in other states (we’re looking at you, Florida!) can learn a thing or two from the successful Warnock campaign.

[bighermie]

Share Link

Democrat Raphael Warnock Defeats Republican Herschel Walker in Georgia Senate Runoff Battle https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/06/democrat-raphael-warnock-defeats-republican-herschel-walker-in-georgia-senate-runoff-battle/

Corruption and the liberal media were the real winners AGAIN

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Erin Reed at Erin In The Morning:

On Sept. 1, the Senate Leadership Fund, a major conservative super PAC, released its first attack ads targeting Democratic senators in swing states: Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. The group plans to spend more than $80 million in Ohio alone. While the high-dollar ad spend is extreme and notable, what stands out even more is the message the super PAC has chosen to use in its attempt to sway voters: attacks on the Democratic Senators' support for transgender people. The strategy is not a new one: in 2022, the American Principles Project and several other PACs spent more than $50 million on anti-trans attack ads. The results did not validate the approach—Republicans suffered significant defeats in states where messaging focused heavily on transgender issues. In 2023, similar outcomes followed, with the loss of Moms for Liberty candidates in school board races nationwide. Despite these setbacks, major Republican donors appear undeterred, continuing to feature this message in the 2024 elections.

[...]

Both senators are currently leading in the polls, with Bob Casey holding a +3 advantage according to polling averages and Sherrod Brown holding a +5 lead. These leads are stronger than those seen during previous attempts to use anti-trans attack ads against swing-state senators. For instance, in 2022, Herschel Walker ran an ad with Riley Gaines in Georgia targeting Raphael Warnock. In that race, Walker had a +1.5 lead in the polls but still lost, despite significant anti-trans attacks on Warnock, who ultimately won his campaign.

Recent polling from Gallup, Navigator, and the LA Times indicates declining public support for anti-transgender laws, with large majorities of respondents viewing these measures as distractions and opposing bans on trans youth care. Be it Michigan's decisive Democratic victory, the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, or the legislative races in Pennsylvania, anti-trans attacks have failed to swing elections in Republicans favor. So compelling are these Democratic victories that they led to the Republican chair in Michigan blaming their loss of all 3 branches of government on the fact that they spent more money on anti-trans ads than bread-and-butter economic issues: “Tudor’s efforts focused largely on Republican red meat issues, in hopes of inspiring a 2020 like showing at the polls,” Cordes wrote. “There were more ads on transgender sports than inflation, gas prices and bread and butter issues that could have swayed independent voters. We did not have a turn out problem middle of the road voters simply didn’t like what Tudor was selling.”

Despite this, Republican leadership in Congress has increasingly prioritized targeting transgender people, even threatening to shut down the government over the issue. Former President Donald Trump is also leaning into the issue, falsely claiming that teachers are performing sex change surgeries on children and sending them home as a different gender, as he stated in a recent sit-down with Moms for Liberty. Should Republicans continue focusing on transgender issues, it may contribute to the ongoing narrative of Republican “weirdness,” a contrast that Vice Presidential Candidate Tim Walz highlights with his assertion that Democrats aim to “mind your own damn business” regarding personal choices that families make. The willingness of Republicans to spend tens of millions of dollars targeting transgender people could ultimately backfire and sink Republican candidates if similar dynamics play out in the 2024 election.

Republican-affiliated super PAC Senate Leadership Fund has released ads featuring anti-trans content alongside other issues. Republicans think they can leverage anti-trans hatred into a win, but it hasn’t led to any major successes at the ballot box.