#Cry About It Putin

[originalleftist]

AP Reports Syrian Rebels Have Entered Damascus- Assad has fled!

A few thoughts:

It is impossible to know what the long-term repercussions of this will be, yet, and whether what ultimately emerges on the other side will be better or worse than the Assad regime. Time will tell.

That said, in the short-term, this is a GIGANTIC kick in the rubles to Putin. He poured a great deal of effort into propping up his Syrian proxies, seemingly successfully intimidating Obama out of taking a stronger stance against Assad after the chemical weapons "red line" was crossed. Syria also is (was?) the home of Russia's only Mediterranean naval base IIRC. I would go so far as to guess that this may be the worst loss Putin has ever taken, outside of his failure to blitzkrieg Ukraine.

While not necessarily validating every action taken in that war, this outcome would seem to validate Israel's decision to strike Hezbollah. Hezbollah were major allies of Assad, and the damage they took from the IDF in recent months likely helped make the swift fall of the Assad regime possible. The rebels will not be friends of Israel either, but nonetheless, and whether it was anticipated or not, the IDF has arguably, indirectly, done what the entire world failed to for the better part of two decades: toppled a key Russian proxy state and rid the Middle East of Assad.

Watch how quickly the "pro-Palestine" Westerners' sympathies for Islamist rebels vanishes in this case, because, see above. They're Tankies, they get a lot of their narratives from Moscow, and their darling Hezbollah was close to Assad. If they aren't already painting the fall of the Butcher of Damascus as an evil US/Jewish "Zionist" conspiracy, they will.

[alkeneater]

russians 🤝 americans

choosing an old bastard who doesn't care about people as their president

[medicinemane]

Really really don't get why so many people seem to have this burning hatred for Ukraine where they'll just... bring them up randomly purely to drag them through the mud and it's like... ok... but... do you actually know a single thing about Ukraine or what's been happening there?

Do you for instance remember when a major dam was destroyed by russia causing massive ecological damage?

Like I'm dead serious here, can you tell me a single thing that's happened in Ukraine in the last 2 years? Can you in any way demonstrate any basic understanding of the situation?

Cause if not... why do you think you should have an opinion on it, especially if your opinion is gonna be how awful people getting bombed are?

Just legit bothers me and... even more so bothers me the number of smart and caring people I see doing this. Basically I'm not even trying to be rude here, I'm trying to remind you to pay attention and remember that not everything you read on the internet is true, a tumblr post isn't a source unless they're giving you a reputable source

Cause like me? I can go track you down articles about the Nova Kakhovka dam being destroyed, and I can talk about all the reason why it's pretty clear that russia destroyed it

Can you do the same for me? Can you back up your claim about Ukraine with something concrete?

In many ways I'm not even asking you to support Ukraine, I get we have a limit to how much we can focus on, it's ok if you focus on your cause and I focus on mine and... both of us giving our undivided attention, maybe we both make some small impact on the world

What I'm asking is you don't be an asshole for no reason. You don't need to throw Ukraine under the bus. Don't you think your cause stands up on it's own two feet?

And again I'm not Ukrainian, I don't know as well as someone there, though... I spare you a lot of the stuff that crosses my dash because I don't want to burn people out with horrible stuff, but please understand it's worse than you probably think

So no, not Ukrainian, but I'll tell you why I'm still worth listening to: I've followed this every day since the invasion began. I keep my ear to the ground. I do know a fair bit and again can back what I have to say up

Anyway, my plea is to just not be a dick to people for no reason. The correct number of bombed civilians is zero, that's my stance

[evilmark999]

As of February 21, 2024, that number is 749 with all of them entering plea deals instead of going to trial; also, nearly two-thirds of those deals have included incarceration...

Donald, if you're reading this: Your case is drawing near!

[qqueenofhades]

I've seen a lot of doom today. Thank you for the bracing positivity!

Look man, idk if I would call it positivity. I'm fucking furious that the media and/or the billionaire class could have chosen at any time, ANY TIME, to carry out this coordinated ratfucking on Trump, and nope, they did it to Biden. Not coincidentally after he openly started espousing even more leftist/progressive tax and wealth policies. I'm also fairly certain that Putin (who is well used to playing the American elections ratfucking game) is involved here somehow, because he desperately wants Biden out and Trump back in. Two plus two, etc.

The elected Democrats who went along with this and/or who contributed to fucking Biden over also have a hell of a lot to answer for, and I hope we, the voters, let them fucking know. The only way this makes sense is if Biden is actively dying of Covid right now and/or if it's bad enough to permanently damage him. In that case, he might have had a modicum of actual say about this, rather than falling victim to the Anonymous Sources who stabbed him in the back every step of the way.

That said: Kamala is a genuinely good candidate. I am excited to have the chance to vote for her. This does turn the whole Referendum on Two Old White Men With Mental Issues narrative on its head. She might be able to reach some constituencies that Biden couldn't. I don't know for sure if all the Democratic/never-Trump GOP votes will translate, but I am so motherfucking tired of fascists thinking this will be a walk in the park. They asked for this, they fucking got it, people are really fucking mad (including me and like, everyone), and if all this maneuvering gets our first female AND Black president, the fascists are going to absolutely fucking lose it and cry for eons. And idk about you, but I want to see some sore loser fuckboys cry cry cry. I want revenge for 2016. I want Trump dead and fucking gone and yknow, Black women have played a huge role in his bad bad times so far. So it's only fair, I suppose, that Kamala gets the chance to finish the motherfucker off. I don't know if it's positivity, but that's what is fueling me right now. So yeah.

[dontforgetukraine]

"I watched a film today at the Venice Film Festival titled "Russians at War." Since our film is in the same section as this one, I usually wouldn’t speak publicly about it. However, in this case, I cannot remain silent, because it’s not just about films and art, but about the lives of thousands of people who die in this war— a war that has instrumentalized propaganda as its weapon.

This film may mislead you into believing that it is an anti-war film, one that questions the current regime in Russia. However, what I witnessed is a prime example of pure Russian propaganda. Here’s why.

The filmmaker begins by expressing her surprise at the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In her film, she always uses the term “invasion” and never "full-scale invasion." She does not mention that Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014. These two events seem to not exist in the world of this film. The filmmaker also states that her country hasn’t participated in wars for many years and that she has only read about wars in books. Thus, the war in 2022 was a complete shock for her. It’s interesting how the filmmaker could overlook the fact that her country has been inherently involved in various wars and occupations for at least the last 30 years (1992-93 Transnistria, Abkhazian War, 1994-96 and 1999-2009 Chechen Wars, the 2008 war in Georgia, and the 2015-2022 invasion of Syria).

The filmmaker starts her narrative with a Ukrainian who now lives in Russia and fights on the Russian side. This is a very intriguing choice for the beginning of a story about Russians at war. Later, this character will claim that a CIVIL war began in Ukraine in 2014. He will also suggest that Ukrainians bombed the eastern parts of their own country (and this is why he moved to Russia). Another character will declare that Ukrainians are Nazis. We’ve heard these narratives before; they are (and apparently still are) widely and actively propagated by Russian media. One of those horns of propaganda is Russia Today channel, for which the director of "Russians at War" has previously made several documentary films.

Throughout the film, all characters express their confusion about their actions in Ukraine, stating they want the war to end and that most of them are fighting for money. In the final part of the film, the battalion is moved to Bakhmut, and most characters die in battle. We then see their comrades and relatives grieving at their graves. All of them repeat that they don’t understand why this war is happening and who needs it. In the end, the filmmaker concludes that these are poor, ordinary Russian people who are being manipulated into war by larger political games. I found this perspective amusing because the filmmaker—like putin and his regime—plays an interesting game with these people. They deny them the simple ability to possess dignity and to think and decide for themselves. To her, these people are merely powerless objects. If those engaged in a war that has lasted over 10 years were not powerless, it would imply that they, in the majority, actually support this war, wouldn’t it?

You will feel pity for the people depicted as dying in the film and for those we see crying for their loved ones. And you should—if you are a normal human being, you should feel pity, sadness, and emotion. However, it is also important to remember that these individuals joined the army that invaded an independent country, many of them willingly, as we learn from the film. You should also recall Bucha, Irpin, Mariupol, and the civilians who were murdered there. Remember the thousands of children who were illegally transported from Ukraine to Russia. While I’m writing this and while you’re reading it, missiles are striking Ukrainian cities. The buttons are pushed by ordinary Russians. Are their crimes any less significant simply because they claim to be unaware of why they are involved in this war?

By the way, the director asks one of the characters if he thinks the Russian army commits any war crimes. He answers “no,” claiming he hasn’t witnessed any war crimes. Interestingly, the director echoes this in her interviews, stating she saw no signs of war crimes during her time near the front (https://www.reuters.com/.../russian-soldiers-given-their.../). We can only be happy for her that she was fortunate enough not to witness any war crimes. Unfortunately, thousands of Ukrainians have not been so lucky.

I could continue, but I believe it’s enough to understand that this film presents a very distorted picture of reality, spreading false narratives (calling the Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea a civil war; suggesting that the Russian army does not commit any war crimes; presenting those who are part of the aggressors army as victims).

If you decide to watch it, I recommend following it with another documentary about Russian soldiers titled "Intercepted," directed by Oksana Karpovych. "Intercepted" also opens a door into the lives of ordinary Russians fighting in this war. You’ll be curious to explore it, as it will undoubtedly surprise you. You may also want to add "20 Days in Mariupol" to your viewing list, just to be able «to see through the fog of war," as the director of "Russians at War" so aptly put it."

—Darya Bassel, Ukrainian film producer of war documentary “Songs of Slow Burning Earth

[beauty-funny-trippy]

We Americans need to send a loud and clear message in the upcoming election — "We've had enough of your bullshit." And we've had enough of your immoral, corrupt, traitorous, egomaniacal, wannabe dictator, and all you Republican politicians that support him.

We're tired of you Republicans sending "thoughts and prayers" to parents of murdered children, then encouraging more school shootings by blocking commonsense gun legislation. We're tired of you making laws that force women to give birth against their will, and send them to prison if they don't comply. We're tired of your corrupt Supreme Court Justices. We're tired of your attacks on voting rights. We're tired of your treatment toward people of color, military veterans, and the lgbtq community. We're tired of your tax breaks for billionaires. We're tired of your willful negligence about climate change. We're tired of your attacks on affordable healthcare. We're tired of you crying for immigration reform out of one side of your mouth, while out of the other side of your mouth you call out to block it. We're tired of your Big Lie about the election being stolen. We're tired of your blatant hypocrisy, your shameful cowardice, and your obvious lies. We're tired of it all.

Recently, Trump again refused to rule out using political violence as a means of obtaining the presidency. —Let. That. Sink. In.— It should set off alarm bells and red warning flags, but Republicans treat it with a shrug. Apparently, Trump has normalized violence. It's important to note that, questions about using political violence were not even asked of candidates prior to Trump entering politics.

Your unwavering support of a traitor who has encouraged violence, claims to be above the law, and wants to be a dictator like his idol, Vladimir Putin, can only mean one thing — you have all surely gone mad.

The only way America can move forward, away from the threat of a Republican dystopia, is when Donald J. Trump, and all his toadies, are tossed onto the ash heap of history.

For generations, Americans have given their lives to preserve democracy for us. Now it is our turn to preserve democracy for future generations.

We can do it America. WE JUST NEED TO VOTE.

[ameliarating]

people i thought were normal and kind are just straight up engaging in atrocity denial because they don't like the 'side' it happened to. like it's a fucking sports match. some of them are so focused on saying the right thing for internet slacktivism points that they've just lost it. I cannot understand. i am syrian-american and i could never get them to care about the atrocities committed by assad and putin there, but now they share video of syrian children and claim to mourn and cry because they seem to think every arab is interchangeable. i am lost.

I am so, so sorry. The Syrian people and their cause have absolutely been victim to this "sports team" mentality. Assad and Putin are anti-American therefore they must be... champions of freedom?

It is much easier to live in a world where there is a side where everyone is wondrous and good and a side where everyone is evil and complicit and this has never been a world we've lived in. Certainly when politicians, dictators, and other people who amass weapons and power make their alliances based on their own ability to hold onto power rather than out of any sense of public good for their people, let alone "the" people in general.

I truly hope that one day we live in a world where all peoples of the Levant and elsewhere - Syrian Arab and Kurd and Israeli Jewish and Druze and Bedouin and Palestinian and Lebanese of all religious and ethnic communities and everyone else completely - are recognized as human beings who are due the honor of living in peace and security and equality, in a land that is recognized as their homeland (even if it is a homeland shared by many), no matter what government claims to represent them.

Remember - the internet is full of people who love to pick sides. But there are also so many people who may be quieter online and active on the ground who care and care deeply and are trying to make the world better.

And if people are interested - here's a way to help out families and children directly impacted by the earthquakes in Syria and Turkey.

[thelostdreamsthings]

"Putin is isolated."

BRICS, 50% of the World population is telling a big "fuck off" to the arrogant, declining and decadent G7 amounting to 10% of the World's population.

🇺🇳🇷🇺 UN Secretary General Guterres respectfully bows and shakes the hand of Putin in Russia’s Kazan at the BRICS summit.

A lot of people start crying and scream hysterically when they see this picture, for some reason.

[BRICS Currency Looms Large: Could This Be the Beginning of the End for U.S. Dollar Dominance?

For decades, the U.S. dollar has been weaponized as a tool of global dominance, wielded by the American empire to enforce its geopolitical will.

Through sanctions, coercive financial practices, and the threat of exclusion from the dollar-based system, the U.S. has effectively terrorized nations across the world.

The pretense of a “free market” economy has long been shattered by Washington's aggressive use of the dollar as a weapon to cripple economies, isolate adversaries, and exert control over global trade.

But the world is growing tired—sick and tired—of this financial tyranny. And now, with the rise of BRICS, we may be witnessing the beginning of the end for U.S. dollar supremacy.

BRICS—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—represent a bloc of nations that together account for nearly half of the global population and a significant chunk of the world’s GDP.

For years, these nations have been quietly collaborating to counterbalance the West's stranglehold over international finance, and now, they are inching closer to launching their own currency.

The creation of a BRICS currency signals an outright challenge to the dollar-dominated global economy, and it is nothing short of a revolt against American financial imperialism.

Why is this happening? The answer is simple: countries are fed up with being bullied. The U.S. has used its currency like a sledgehammer, smashing nations that dare to defy its hegemony.

Whether through sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, or Russia, or by financially suffocating smaller nations into submission, the dollar has become a tool of coercion rather than commerce.

Nations who once played by the rules of the so-called “global order” have found themselves punished, their economies crippled, and their people starved—merely for refusing to kowtow to Washington's dictates.

But BRICS is offering an alternative. The creation of a BRICS currency, backed by the economic strength of its member nations, offers the world a way out of the suffocating grip of the dollar.

This is not just about financial autonomy—it’s about reclaiming sovereignty, independence, and the right to conduct trade without the constant threat of U.S. interference.

Russia and China have been leading the charge in this effort, driven in part by the U.S. sanctions imposed on Moscow following the Ukraine conflict and the ongoing trade war with Beijing.

Both countries have moved aggressively to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar, increasing trade with each other and with other BRICS members in their local currencies.

They are laying the groundwork for a currency that could be based on a basket of commodities, potentially gold-backed, further weakening the grip of the U.S. dollar on the global market.

The U.S. has long prided itself on its role as the issuer of the world’s reserve currency, but this dominance was never guaranteed to last forever.

The BRICS currency threatens to dismantle the global financial architecture that has allowed the U.S. to live far beyond its means.

For decades, the U.S. has run massive deficits, printing money at will, secure in the knowledge that the world would continue to rely on the dollar.

But as BRICS nations move to establish their own currency, that privilege could evaporate overnight.

The implications for the U.S. are dire. If the dollar loses its status as the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. economy could face a severe reckoning.

The artificial demand for dollars that has kept interest rates low and allowed the U.S. to run massive debt could vanish, leading to inflation, higher borrowing costs, and potentially a fiscal crisis.

The American empire, propped up for so long by its control of global finance, could find itself in rapid decline.

For the rest of the world, however, the rise of a BRICS currency represents hope—a chance to escape the iron grip of U.S. financial imperialism. No longer will countries have to fear the punitive measures of the U.S. Treasury.

No longer will they have to worry about being cut off from the global financial system for standing up to American bullying.

The creation of a new currency could usher in a multipolar world, where nations are free to trade without being subject to the whims of a single superpower.

Of course, the U.S. will not go quietly. Washington will likely pull out all the stops to crush the BRICS currency before it can gain traction. The playbook will be the same: propaganda, financial sabotage, and even the threat of military intervention.

But this time, the world may not be so easily intimidated. The BRICS nations, backed by their vast resources and burgeoning economies, are prepared to stand their ground.

In the end, the creation of a BRICS currency is not just an economic development—it’s a revolutionary act. It’s a declaration that the age of American financial dominance is coming to an end, and that a new world is on the horizon.

The U.S. dollar, once seen as the bedrock of global stability, has become a symbol of oppression, and the world is ready to move on.

The question now is not whether the U.S. dollar will fall, but when. And as BRICS moves closer to launching its own currency, that day may be sooner than anyone expects.

The empire, long propped up by its financial manipulation, is facing a reckoning—one that could change the course of history.]

IMF Growth Forecast: 2024

🇮🇳India: 7.0% (BRICS)

🇨🇳China: 4.8% (BRICS)

🇷🇺Russia: 3.6% (BRICS)

🇧🇷Brazil: 3.0% (BRICS)

🇺🇸US: 2.8% (G7)

🇸🇦KSA: 1.5% (invited to BRICS)

🇨🇦Canada: 1.3% (G7)

🇿🇦RSA: 1.1% (BRICS)

🇬🇧UK: 1.1% (G7)

🇫🇷France: 1.1% (G7)

🇮🇹Italy: 0.7% (G7)

🇯🇵Japan: 0.3% (G7)

🇩🇪Germany: 0.0% (G7)

‼️ 159 out of 193 countries have signed up to use the new BRICS settlement system.

US and European Union will no longer be able to use economic sanctions as a weapon.

This system allows countries to settle trades and payments in their own currencies, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar, which has long been the dominant global currency.

[tributary]

I'm asking in the best faith possible, so please don't take this as an attempt to start shit. In what way is the "punch Nazis" attitude a form of soft Holocaust denial?

“punch nazis lol” can be a form of soft holocaust denial. in theory it can overlap with actually supporting jewish people, but in practice i have not seen much of that.

when i have expressed reservations along those lines, i get incredulous and infuriated responses from people who are not part of groups targeted by nazis. i’m not going to cry if a nazi is actually punched, but that happens so rarely it is almost beneath notice. i worry that this posturing rhetoric—and it is posturing—serves to rile them up further. self-preservation is not cowardice here. defend yourself and others if you have to, but don’t seek out opportunities for violence against socially acceptable targets who are dangerous. for many people i think that the violence is what it is all about.

part of a broader problem, really, where people think the be-all-end-all of jewish history is “the nazis didn’t like them.” and that isn’t even the tip of the iceberg.

and that’s best case scenario—i have had people tell me, full of confidence, that jews weren’t the nazis’ priority. a lot of these “punch nazis lol” types probably know very little about the holocaust and couldn’t tell you why nazis are bad, only that they are.

there’s also the issue of calling people who are not nazis ‘nazis’ in order to justify violence against them. sometimes this happens to people who are jewish. putin is fond of this one.

i recommend you read this post and check out my #godwin’s flaw tag.

then read this one. and this one. and ask the people who post about punching nazis to show us their knuckles, to put up or shut up. to do something helpful or get out of our way.

[casper-ry]

I am scared.

Oh what a time to be alive, I think, as I look at the results of the EU election in my home coutry, Germany.

The second-strongest group in my home country (AfD) is far-right, supports Putin (even had Russian spies in their midst), wants to literally DESTROY the EU, wants to revoke women's and LGBTQ+ people's rights, -

and that's just the beginning. And I can tell you where it'll end. And we had that same situation about a hundred years ago. Back then, Germany lost its constitution and started a genocide. And yes I'm talking about the Nazis.

I am scared. Not just of this political climate. I am scared because a lot of the people I know and am lucky to call my friends and acquaintances don't have a German passport, and because this party will want to get rid of them, or do anything they can, at least.

I am scared, because I am a trans man undergoing hormone therapy. It is, regrettably, a very vulnerable situation to be in in this political climate, because all they need to do is ban one type of medicine and claim it to be harmful-

or perhaps they will just revoke my rights to exist peacefully completely.

I am scared, because all this literal danger to the German constitution needed to do was speak a few pretty words for the camera, post it on Tiktok, and the people believed them blindly. So many haven't read the election program, so many don't know what these people want to do-

but they hate the other parties. So why not elect the one party that actively threatens the freedom and equal rights of our country?

I am scared. Maybe I won't be first in line to be shot, but I am standing in the queue.

And what scares me even more is that I can't understand HOW this situation could even happen. Were our voices not loud enough? Didn't we cry out and warned them often enough? Why did so many people choose to ignore the riots, the pleas, the thousands and thousands of voices?

Just "to make a statement"? Is voting against peace and against freedom and against equality a protest now? Is humanity so easily influenceable that they tune out all the voices on the streets? Or was I just optimistic, am I really just living in a country where we want war and supression and censors and dictators-

because that's what this is going to boil down to. And I am scared.

Scared of this country. Scared of the people in it. Scared of the future. Scared of what this predicts for the next election in 2025. Scared of the visibly easy manipulation of the masses.

Scared, because I KNOW that history repeats again and again and again and again and we claim to learn from it;

and yet, we don't.

[mariacallous]

In Ukraine’s prolonged struggle against Russia, the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president was a black swan event.

Among other positions, Trump ran on the promise of extricating the United States from the conflict in Ukraine. His closest allies have openly disparaged Kyiv and made overtures to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Thus, with this transition of power begins a new chapter of the war in which Western support for Ukraine could fall by the wayside.

Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden’s belated decision to allow Ukraine to use U.S. missiles to strike targets deep within Russian territory, a critical condition of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “victory plan,” is hardly a godsend. These missiles cannot singlehandedly change the course of the war, and they put Zelensky in an awkward position. Striking Russian targets will trigger not only the wrath of Putin, but also that of Trump, who will undoubtedly view any escalation as a shot against his own prospects for dealmaking.

With Trump making threats to pull out of NATO and cut a deal with Putin, Europe is also having second thoughts on backing Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with Putin on Nov. 15 about bringing an end to the war, while Czech President Petr Pavel announced plans in October to send a new ambassador to the Czech Embassy in Moscow in early 2025.

Meanwhile, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres recently attended the annual summit of the BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and several recently added members—hosted in Kazan, Russia. The U.N.’s involvement in an event hosted by a country engaged in a war of aggression, whose president is wanted under an International Criminal Court warrant, sends a disheartening message.

Almost three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, the West is tired. It no longer has the political will to help Ukraine win by military means and is seeking a settlement with the aggressor instead.

The U.S. shift toward isolationism may hasten the inevitable: Ukraine and the West will soon find themselves negotiating with Russia to define the terms of a settlement—and, by extension, shaping a new world order. This emerging order will not be the rules-based system established after World War II, but one driven by idiosyncratic dealmaking among strongmen.

The problem is that any deal will amount to Ukraine’s—and the West’s—capitulation to Russia.

A bad peace is better than a good quarrel, according to a Russian proverb. If the West is set on securing this “bad peace,” then it must have a negotiating strategy along four critical parameters: territories, security guarantees for Ukraine, reparations, and sanctions.

Even before Trump’s election, some of Ukraine’s staunchest allies began expressing the view that Ukraine would have to accept some loss of land. The most obvious settlement strategy, then, would likely involve buying Ukrainian and European security with territory—possibly including Donetsk; large chunks of the Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions; and the peninsula of Crimea, which Russia first seized in 2014.

This outcome is a far cry from the Western leaders’ earlier commitments to Ukraine’s territorial integrity and hopes for regime change in Russia, but realpolitik leaves little room for moral considerations.

Should Zelensky agree to this loss of territory, the only realistic security guarantee for Ukraine would be membership in NATO. Yet this runs counter to what U.S. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has lobbied for: a demilitarized zone along the current front lines and an enduring commitment to Ukraine’s neutrality.

The next White House does not seem to have a plan for what happens to Europe in a few years, when it would face a revanchist Russia with a subdued Ukraine at its Western borders. Such an outcome is not in Trump’s best interest. Another option, therefore, may have Trump concede to Ukraine’s membership in a new NATO—one without the United States, perhaps—leaving Europeans to be the masters of their own security.

Battered and curtailed but still sovereign, Ukraine would gain a nuclear umbrella against future Russian aggression, and Europe would fund the postwar reconstruction. There would be no international tribunal and no reparations. (Putin won’t be negotiating his own sentence.) Sanctions against Russia would remain for the time being. Europe would accept the occupation de facto, but it wouldn’t de jure recognize the territory as Russian land.

It will be difficult to come up with a deal that satisfies all parties. But in any negotiation, reaching a mutually satisfactory outcome depends on the motivation and constraints of those involved. The West is motivated to settle in Ukraine because it is tired of war, and because Trump is uninterested in leading the existential fight for democracy. Ukraine, understanding that it cannot win on its own, can be motivated to settle in order to stop the now-pointless bloodshed.

Putin’s motivations are murkier. In fact, a closer look would reveal that Putin has no need for lasting peace.

Putin’s megalomaniacal intransigence is now reinforced by his perception that he is winning, even if it is taking longer than he hoped. Piecemeal shipments of Western military aid have made Russian advances slow and painful—but they have been advances nevertheless. While Ukraine’s ability to affect Russian military logistics was until recently severely hampered by Western restrictions, the Russian army has faced no such limitations, regularly bombing civilian infrastructure and military targets alike.

In wars of attrition, the side with more resources is poised to win, and Russia still mobilizes resources with frightening force. Russia has activated the economic and cultural mechanisms necessary for around-the-clock military production—bread-making factories churning out drones, schoolchildren making camouflage nets, and old Soviet tanks hauled out of Siberian forests and shipped to Ukrainian front lines.

Now that the economy has been switched on to military footing, there is no shortage of munitions. Meanwhile, government payouts ensure an ample supply of volunteers to enlist in the military, meaning Russia does not have a manpower crisis like Ukraine does.

No human toll is too high for Russia. During World War II, Russia lost more than 27 million people—the largest number of fatalities of all involved. Peter the Great’s 18th-century Great Northern War, which established Russia’s power in the Baltics, lasted 21 years and incurred enormous casualties, as did the 25-year-long Livonian War fought by Ivan the Terrible in the 16th century.

Russia has already suffered upward of 700,000 people dead or wounded during the Ukraine war, according to estimates from the National Interest. But with families of dead soldiers mollified by the “coffin money” they receive, society writ large has not budged in its support for the war. It will likely stay that way short of another mobilization.

It certainly helps that the brunt of the war is borne by recruited volunteers, who sign up to fight to improve their and their family’s economic standings, and by convicts—both groups making up a significant number of those killed and wounded in Ukraine. Another large constituency fighting Russia’s war is national minorities, often from depressed economic areas and the lowest strata of society. And now, those minorities are joined by North Korean soldiers and potentially by citizens of the other dictatorships that Putin courts.

Contrast this low visibility of Russia’s war toll, further obscured by Kremlin propaganda, to its loudly celebrated nativist successes. In the last two years, not only did Russia fail to fold under the weight of Western sanctions, but it also managed to build parallel economic, financial, and cultural structures that are independent of the West.

Economically, Russia has reoriented itself toward the East, increasing trade with China, India, and other countries in Asia and the Middle East. It has shifted its energy exports away from Europe and developed domestic production capabilities. Despite sanctions, oil money—the main source of Russia’s war financing—keeps flowing, albeit from a different direction than before. Cross-border payments are now handled through SPFS, a homegrown alternative to the SWIFT global financial system, and the Mir payment system that replaced Visa and MasterCard. Russia touts these systems to its BRICS partners as alternatives to “Western financial hegemony.”

If anything, the war in Ukraine has given Putin more money to play with than before. Assets belonging to Western companies exiting Russia have been nationalized or bought for cheap and redistributed to businesses with ties to the Kremlin—one of the largest property transfers in Russia’s history. Cut off from Western banks, Russian oligarchs must invest their money domestically. Sanctions evasion schemes protect Russians’ access to Western consumer goods, creating enormous enrichment opportunities for Russian and Western business agents alike. Tankers shuttle Russian oil with payments cleared through offshore shell companies. Putin’s personal wealth, estimated at somewhere between $70 billion and $200 billion, remains safe. Though he is a product of a socialist state, the Russian leader is a master of capitalism.

Cultural shifts in Russia increase Putin’s confidence in victory. What little dissent remained before the war has largely been rooted out, with Russians closing ranks around their leader. According to a recent poll conducted by the Levada Center in September and October, more than two-thirds of Russians who said they want the war to end are against returning Russian-occupied territories to Ukraine.

On the global stage, Russia has managed to upgrade its status from a regional power to a leader of the anti-Western coalition. These coalition members have their own stakes in Ukraine. A Russian victory would embarrass the United States, weakening its influence in Asia and helping China. North Korea has found exports—bad shells and soldiers—that it can exchange for food, money, and energy. And Iran is happy to keep the United States distracted from the Middle East.

Even if Putin wanted to end the war, it would entail serious risk for his regime. Drones, shells, and missile production would have to be scaled down, ending the economic boom. The sudden drop in government spending would create real prospects of an economic collapse. Around 1.5 million veterans would have to be pulled out of Ukraine to find new roles in a corrupt Russian society. The manufactured sense of national unity would give way to envy that beyond the border, on Russia’s “ancestral lands,” Ukrainians are thriving under European Union and NATO banners.

Taken together, in a country reacclimatized to grand-scale violence, the prospect of revolt becomes clear and present. To find an outlet for that aggression, Putin would have to start a new war not long after agreeing to settle for peace.

Ultimately, the status quo—an ongoing border squabble with conventional weapons—suits all but Ukraine and Europe, for which security deteriorates in direct proportion to Putin’s success.

The Putin that the West would face at the negotiating table is a former underdog—a man on a mission to free the world from what he has characterized as Western “hegemony,” his economy thriving, his new and old friends paying court, and his people unified behind him.

He is not, however, as invincible as he seems. The BRICS countries are not rushing to replace SWIFT with the Russian alternative. By putting all his economic eggs into the military basket, Putin has siphoned off resources from everywhere else, an unsustainable move. Inflation is real, and the ruble is weakening. Even the overheated military sector can’t keep up with demands. Moreover, as a student of Russian history, Putin knows that the support and adoration of the Russian masses can turn on its head overnight.

But Putin also knows how to keep a poker face. Having staked his survival on this war, Putin would be negotiating from the position of strength and with obligations to his domestic and international stakeholders in mind.

He has already shot an opening volley at the U.S. president-elect: After a call during which Trump told the Russian leader not to escalate in Ukraine, Russian state television released a special on Melania Trump’s modeling career, including nude photos of the once and future first lady.

The West, meanwhile, will be negotiating from a position of inherent weakness. After tiptoeing around the Kremlin’s red lines throughout the war, Western leaders have signaled their readiness to consider cessation of a large chunk of Ukrainian territory, wishing away what little leverage they had.

There is nothing stopping Putin from believing that he can’t get more. Unless Russia is decisively defeated on the battlefield or Putin is given precisely what he wants, he will not stop.

Of the options put forward for a negotiated solution, the only one that Putin would agree to is the one that gives him Ukraine’s capitulation on a platter. He will never agree to a thriving, independent, armed, and Western-aligned Ukraine on his border, because he would lose too much face. Putin will therefore demand an unviable Ukraine—without an army and without NATO membership—and, in effect, a Western surrender.

The issue of European security cannot be solved by a settlement with Moscow because appeasement only increases the aggressor’s appetite. Only the containment of Putin’s expansionism by military means will remove the existential threat to his neighbors. So long as there is an aggressive, revanchist Russia in the picture, lasting peace is an illusion.

[sprites4ever]

Joe Biden, the last Politician

Don't come crying to me.

In his typical hypocritical manner, Donald Trump called President Biden pardoning his son Hunter 'a corruption of justice'. Of course, every President who was voted out has pardoned everyone they felt like during their final days in office, but due to Trump's constant screaming about what's currently going on, nobody remembers that. It's also reminded me of how russia's been projecting on Biden, calling him 'a fading old man who will soon no longer be responsible', over his decision to let Ukraine use ATACMS on russian territory. Of course, russia blame everything they themselves do on the West™, so no news there, but it's gotten me thinking about how much of a victim Joe Biden is. A victim of what can only be called 'the end of politics'.

Since Day Zero of Joe Biden's presidency, Donald Trump and his autocrat buddies in russia, China and North Korea have been waging a relentless manipulation campaign against him, as well as against not only Liberals, but all Western politicians.

In this context, I differentiate between politicians and those who are replacing them in the Western world as I type this, populists.

Politicians are people who have different views and who navigate complex negotiations and put in great care when making decisions that affect millions.

Populists are exactly the cartoonishly evil, power-hungry bastards which all of mankind's best stories tried to warn you about: They are lying cowards who will claim and deny anything for popularity and power, who throw around meaningless platitutes and who offer simple solutions to complex problems. They typically also turn into autocrats sooner or later. Especially with the advent of social media, the workings of which strongly foster populism in society, they've been gaining power. So much so that, in typical villain fashion, they can create situations for their enemies, the politicians, in which the politicians' good intentions will lead to them making asses of themselves.

And thus, populists can once again depict not just Liberalism, but progress and democracy itself as fake and weak.

I say 'once again', because the exact same thing already happened in the 1930s. If you people had any historical education, if you knew the history behind current events and not just the clickbait headlines, none of what is currently happening, would be happening. Tyrants like Putin, Xi and Kim would be put in their place, and people like Donald Trump would be correctly labelled as the fascists they are and be nothing but an obscure niche phenomenon.

Yeah btw, where's Kamala Harris screaming about a stolen election and inciting a Capitol riot? She didn't do that because, unlike her rival, she is an acceptable human being.

[snarp]

The next development in AI will be controlling parents becoming convinced that their kids' online friends are all chatbots (because they can't follow the logic of the kids' coded-to-evade-parental-surveillance conversations (and also don't really want to)). They will convince bad therapists/psychiatrists that this is a genuine and widespread new medical condition; it will make the news. There will be YouTube videos of parents crying over their "lost" kids' "delusional conversations with bots" which if you read the screenshots are clearly just about basic-ass MCU kinnie shit.

Parents struggle to convince others parents that their children are not bots: "I'm sorry, but your child is lying to you. A REAL human simply could NOT have written these text messages my child received." Attached screenshot: kids exchanging unfunny quotes from Minecraft YouTubers. "If this was really your child writing these things....... I'm praying for you both."

(Obviously this isn't always about a sincere belief in the Bot Disease, any more than the Satanic Panic was always about a sincere belief in the cults. There are layers to belief, like when an onion gets a slimy spot.)

Parents and pundits at all political extremes will blame the youth's distressing political opinions on "state-of-the-art radicalization botnets," which will invariably be described as capable of something akin to mind control, and in some cases also penetrative sex. Soros is running the botnets, or Putin; or the guy in Havana who gets to shoot the Syndrome gun. There will be incomprehensible bipartisan laws passed to stop these botnets. A QAnon guy will shoot a couple of AI devs working on like, improving fruit-sorting or making motion capture worse.

One state tries to ban minors from accessing to the internet except via special phones purchased through a contractor owned by the governor's dad. Not clear how this is supposed to solve the problem. The phones never get manufactured, and the law is worded so poorly that everyone who lives in a building containing both a kid and a phone is technically guilty of at least a misdemeanor. (This one would probably have happened anyway. It doesn't need AI paranoia.)

[mech4n15m]

OMG. I have no comments. I wanted to make this video for Makarov’s birthday, but i made it for Vladimir Putin’s birthday. Evil irony.

translate:

i know what you drink who you sleep with, what you lie about how your days dragged on without tears, without life, without love

but what, if the thirst to do evil will become a bit stronger? if you have loaded a gun it means it is too late

oh, someone is crying behind the wall maybe, it is a house spirit? someone cried out behind the wall you and I are tied together

[selkies-world]

Hey US-AMERICA

If you needed more motivation to vote this year: how about hearing it from Hamilton?

YOU GUYS KNOW HOW FUCKED YOUR SOCIETY AND POLITICS HAS TO BE FOR IT TO GET REWRITTEN AS A GODDAMN HAMILTON SONG, RIGHT!?!??!

RIGHT!?!?!??!

USA, PLEASE VOTE FOR HARRIS. VOTE KAMALA. VOTE BLUE.

Because you do not exist in a bubble. You live in one of (if not The) most powerful countries ON THIS PLANET. Your politics influences the rest of the world. Whoever you put in power influences the rest of the world.

So please. Look at the rest of the world, and think of the consequences of your vote. Look at the refugees running from Jesus' homeland because they're being hunted for sport. Look at the children starving in Syria. Look at the people in the Congo. Look at the people in Madagascar. Look at the people in Egypt. Look at the people in France. Look at the people dying as they try to escape to another country. Look at the people who have no choice but to risk their child's life because it's a slightly better odd than doing nothing at all. Look at the people fleeing their homelands and their family roots and their family members' graves because of dictatorships and wars. Look at the people dying in the streets. Look at the people walking across deserts because they have nowhere else to go, but only know they have to get away from the one land they have ever known. Look at the lives being torn apart by bombs. Look at the children crying in the streets as they have no choice but to make a cardboard box into a home for the night.

Look at your own country - not just your own community, but those outside it. Look at the people you pass in the street. Look at the children. Look at the homeless. Look at the refugees and the immigrants. Look at the students. Look at the elderly. Look at the people you deem invisible in your everyday life - the staff at the store, the taxi drivers, the delivery people, the receptionists.

Look at all of these people - all of these people who you may never know, or relate to, or share life experiences with - all of these people, no matter their skin colour or language or religion or accent or body type or generation - look at all of these people, and think: how will your vote impact them?

Because I promise you, it will.

Please don't subject us to another 4 years of Trump. The planet can't take it, and neither can humanity. Take his threats seriously. He's dangerous, and if he is elected, the world will run red with blood. Blood which will be on your hands.

Please. Vote blue. Vote blue for the planet. Vote blue for humanity, all across the world, no matter what language we speak or what we look like or where we come from.

Please, America. Yous call yourselves the land of the free. Please don't elect the next Putin, or Thatcher, or Hitler. Because that is what Trump will become if you give him the chance.

You have the fate of the entire world in your hands when you vote this year. Please don't sentence us all to death.