#Correlation Research in the Public Interest

[omg-erika]

"Millions of Lives Saved"?

by Dr.Harald Wiesendanger– Klartext What the mainstream media is hiding Have mRNA vaccines against Covid-19 “saved millions of lives”? That’s why the 2023 Nobel Prize in Medicine was awarded. It honors a hair-raising lie “based on a junk simulation financed by industry,” according to two scientists from Canada. It has now been quoted over 700 times in the specialist press worldwide, and…

[good-night-space-kid]

Geology and The Terror

As a geologist who is incapable of turning off their geology brain even while watching shows for fun, one of the things that baffles me a bit about The Terror is why they continuously refer to the landscape as shale when both King William Island and the filming location in Pag, Croatia are dominated by limestone. Given the desolation of the landscape, the geology is rather at the forefront of many scenes so it was fun to try and parse it out as I watched.

King William Island, Nunavut, Canada

According to the official map of the bedrock of the region as published by the Canadian government (Harrison et al., 2015), the entirety of King William Island is mapped as dolostone, dolomitic limestone, and limestone with only minor components of shale, sandstone, conglomerate, and breccia. This is a shelf marine deposit dating back to the Late Cambrian, so this is very old sedimentary rock but younger than most of the surrounding hard rock that composes various parts of the Canadian shield. Notably, the pink units mapped on the Boothia Peninsula are Paleoproterozoic in age (2.5-1.6 billion years old), potentially up to 2 billion years older than the limestones of King William Island.

(This is an absolutely massive .pdf file with some scaled features so I would recommend viewing via the official publication to actually read anything or see fine details: publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.557274&sl=0)

Notably, this map was published in 2015, 8 years after the novel was written. However, according to the bibliography for the map (which can be accessed via the previous link) a preliminary geologic map has existed for the area since at least 1967, though I was unable to track this publication down online. The novel was clearly thoroughly researched and Dan Simmons could have easily accessed this publication and others through multiple institutions.

The surficial geology of King William Island has also been mapped, and is predominantly glacial, as one would expect given it's location. For those unfamiliar with glacial geology processes, this is basically saying that the bedrock is buried under a bunch of glacial deposits. Glacial till is composed of rocks and sediments plucked from the bedrock and ground up. This is why the surface of the island is not one big rock, but a bunch of smaller pieces. Interestingly, the material on the southern part of the island is sandier because it contains more material derived from the Canadian Shield further south. If you're interested in glacial geology, I highly recommend zooming around a bit on Google Earth because the features here are GORGEOUS.

(This map is absolutely massive and the lines scale with zoom so it's hard to see at this resolution, access it here: publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.834073&sl=0)

(Google Earth Pro, satellite imagery from 2020)

According to the surface geology map and Google Earth, the actual landscape of King William Island is much more water logged than it appears in the show. It's not entirely impossible that there has been some geomorphological change since 1848, but most of the features mapped would have been formed during the last ice age and as the glaciers melted and not more recently. This would have been handy for the men of the Franklin Expedition because each of these pools is filled with freshwater.

Pag, Croatia

Tracking down a geologic map of Croatia was somewhat challenging as I don't speak Croatian. I was able to find a map of the whole country, and while it's all in Croatian the symbol for the geologic time periods is universal so time periods can be correlated. This shows that the units that make up Pag are Cretaceous and Paleocene-Eocene in age.

(Map accessed here: https://www.hgi-cgs.hr/en/geoloska-karta-republike-hrvatske-1300-000/)

I was able to find a .pdf (access here: http://kig.kartografija.hr/index.php/kig/article/view/158/274) that had a bit more information on the map above but at a lower resolution. This states that the Cretaceous units are dominantly carbonates from the Adriatic sea and the Eocene units are also carbonates. This makes sense as both the Cretaceous and Paleocene-Eocene boundary/PETM are times of increased global temperature correlated with increases in global sea level.

As always, the best geology website out there, Macrostrat, also came through on the unit lithologies. I was unable to access the source listed on Macrostrat, but both the Cretaceous (green) and Paleocene-Eocene units (orange) are listed as limestone.

(Source: https://macrostrat.org/map/#x=16&y=23&z=2)

One of the best views that we get of the geology on Pag is the last scene with Bridgens in episode 9. During the zoom out of this scene we get a really nice view of the bedrock and debris covering it.

Given all of this, I'm really not sure where the landscape description as shale came from. If there is historical precedence for calling the rocks on the island shale, let me know! I have read a few books but none of the primary sources from the expeditions to this region, so if it comes from that I wouldn't be surprised.

Overall though, I have to say that the filming location was well chosen given the similarities it holds to the geology of King William Island.

[vaspider]

To be fair I may be wrong considering how biases in med science leads to correlative data, but from what I have seen, being overweight leads to health issues? I remember being back in high school being taught that having more fat equated to heart strain, since more blood needed to be moved throughout the body within the same time frame than for a person of expected weight

And more recently when I went looking for research papers on being overweight and the associated heart issues (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6179812/#:~:text=The%20increased%20cardiac%20output%20in,an%20increase%20in%20stroke%20volume.)

From your post, yea definitely fat phobia in medical spaces is a horrifying thing, and probably led to many of these ‘get fat and you’ll have this health condition’ ideas circulating

Though I was curious if you think being fat within a certain ‘range’ has no negative health impacts? (Genuinely contused and curious)

Seriously, I'm not going to get into this discourse or provide you with an exhaustive explanation of how medical bias affects research and the interpretation of results when so many people out there have already done the work, and I linked to books you can read and pointed towards a podcast you can listen to already.

But, since you ignored those things and came into my inbox 'just asking questions,' you can start here:

Or maybe you can look at @fatphobiabusters or @fatliberation, or @fatsexybitch, who have already done a lot of work on this.

I am genuinely not interested in this conversation.

[the-garbanzo-annex-jr]

by Dion J. Pierre

Critics argue the movement’s growth poses a threat to the well being of Jewish college students. According to a recent study conducted by the AMCHA Initiative, an antisemitism watchdog, a positive correlation exists between college faculty who support boycotts of Israel and the occurrence of antisemitic incidents on college campuses.

AMCHA researchers found that the “presence and number of faculty” who supported academic boycotts before Israel’s last war with Hamas in 2021, which began after the terrorist organization fired more than 150 rockets at Israeli territory, “were strongly and reliably associated with every measure of faculty and student-perpetrated antisemitic activity during this period.” They also found through a series of regression analyses that schools with “five or more faculty who had expressed support for academic BDS [the boycott, divestment, and sanctions movement against Israel] prior to May 2021” were 5.6 times “more likely to have a student government that issued an anti-Zionist statement,” and 3.6 times more likely to have incidents of antisemitic harassment and intimidation.

Tammi Rossman-Benjamin, the director of the AMCHA Initiative, reiterated that point on Thursday.

“AMCHA’s research has shown consistently that promoting BDS in the classroom is highly correlated with increased antisemitism in the campus square,” Rossman-Benjamin told The Algemeiner. “So if the University of Michigan really wants to address the problem of antisemitism, it must start with ensuring that its faculty are prohibited from using their academic positions as bully pulpits for spewing hatred of the Jewish state and its supporters and encouraging activism to harm them.”

“Not only are FJP groups charged with giving support and academic legitimacy to the BDS efforts of their campus SJP groups, they are also committing their members to bringing academic BDS and its goals of delegitimizing and dismantling the Jewish state into their classrooms and conference halls,” she added.

Miriam Elman, executive director of the Academic Engagement Network (AEN), a nonprofit that promotes academic freedom in higher education, told The Algemeiner that while faculty should form groups centered on common interests, doing so for the purpose of denigrating others is grossly inappropriate.

“Unfortunately, based on its first public statement, the Michigan FJP appears bent on uplifting the Palestinian cause while demeaning and denigrating Jews on campus,” Elman explained. “It’s astonishing that in its lengthy initial public statement the group could find no space to advocate for the 100 plus hostages including US citizens and young women, who continue to be held in captivity by Hamas.”

[bijoumikhawal]

Clothes from the Siwa Oasis, Costumes of Egypt by Shahira Mehrez

Siwa is relatively isolated from the rest of Egypt, and resultingly has a unique local culture. This is bolstered by its large population of Imazighen and Black people. Though the public perception is that Siwa is the only place Imazighen have lived in Egypt in large numbers, this is not true as there are parts of Upper Egypt that have Amazigh populations (specifically descending from the Hawwara), and even centuries where they were the dominant local political entity. That said, the Oasis still traded with other parts of Egypt during it's isolation, notably with Kirdasa, where many kinds of striped fabrics were traditionally sourced. It seems fashion may have been influenced beyond that, as one surviving example of a 19th century dress is in the tob sebleh style used throughout Egypt.

Unmarried girls and married women were traditionally distinguished in two ways: one, girls wore tunics with a slit neckline, which is embroidered in green, orange, red, and yellow. Married women wore a square neckline with predominantly green embroidery. Two, women wore a kind of sirwal called srwalayn hatem as part of their standard clothing under their tunic. 7 of these would be included in the trousseau. Unmarried girls traditionally did not wear this.

The white and black bridal dresses you may have seen before are called ashsherreḥ (sometimes transliterated "asherah") naminal and ashsherreḥ nazitaf, respectively. These are elaborately embroidered and embellished with decorative mother of pearl buttons. The buttons have led to other Egyptians calling these "the dress of a thousand buttons". They were not originally worn on the day of the wedding itself, but for ceremonies in the following week, and kept as formal wear. However, there are a few other styles of dresses designated for weddings and the bridal ceremonies, and these dresses have had similar versions made for unmarried girls at various points as fashion evolved and changed. Today, while some young brides have a strong affection for the traditional dresses, very few women wear them due to social judgement and the proliferation of Western style white dresses, as well as a lack of avaliablity of the dresses or even jewelry, which may be more socially accepted than the dresses. Most examples of the ashsherreḥ have a round neckline with a slit instead of the square neckline, though other bridal tunics have the square neckline. There was also a brief fashion of ashsherreḥ in bright colors in the mid 20th century.

The embroidery has been of interest to various archeologists and historic researchers, as Siwi motifs include suns and crosses, often combined together. The mother of pearl buttons also have a solar significance, being believed to give the wearer the power of the sun. Some, such as Ahmed Fakhry, believe Siwa once hosted Christians and adherents of Amun-Ra simultaneously, and take these symbols as potential evidence. Personally I find taking this specifically as evidence of that a bit spurious (though the suggestion itself is certainly plausible, and even likely), but embroidery motifs on clothes certainly are used for centuries in Egypt; while exact copies are rare, one can find Mamluk era examples correlating strongly to motifs found on dresses made 600-400 years later. I am mostly skeptical because 1) other Egyptians are can be very obnoxious about proving something was originally Pharaonic, and often use logical leaps or simply lie to connect things, and 2) urban peoples have a very annoying habit of treating rural peoples as though they are "frozen" in time, so using regional dresses as evidence for history some thousand years ago rankles me. I see it all the time with biblical scholars in regard to Beoduins, and I narrow my eyes here because it feels like a similar attitude. Admittedly, as I have pointed out, this isn't unique to Siwa.

[transmutationisms]

sorry could you explain your chatgpt essay thing again? i get the general gist of it (who cares if they cheat) but i still cant grasp it entirely as someone who hasnt experienced the college system 💔 i had thought that essays were a foundational part of undergrad education? and so cheating on that part would essentially mean that: a) their education/understanding is "invalid" b) it discredits the work of other people in the same system/their classmates c) their future publications/written work in academia are going to be of worse quality d) in cases of people going to non academia jobs, like being a doctor or a lawyer, this would negatively impact their clients e) they have bad work ethic = will not survive job industry

my guesses are that just in general theres no direct correlation between these things but ppl assume there will be? and that if a plagiarized essay ruins everything then the system wasnt rlly that good?

the only one im rlly unsure of is the second one, but i suppose thats always been a problem with any type of academic cheating amongst peers, and will persist unless academic rankings/validation of excellence/general attitudes toward "success" r also banished. still, while i rlly dont care abt anyone i know cheating on stuff like this lol, i cant help but empathize w students struggling under that same system feeling frustrated. tho Man seeing the lack of empathy they, in turn, can have with chatgpt users. idk, is it just a lose lose situation until you get through the system?

ok sorry again and also thanks

hi, no worries. let me try to break down my position here.

i had thought that essays were a foundational part of undergrad education

i mean, this varies widely by course / degree / department. but, even when it's true, it doesn't mean that the essay is inherently a valuable or helpful exercise. undergrad essays tend to ask for one of a few very formulaic responses and ways of structuring an argument. essays also often have a specific prompt, which can be better or worse in terms of its potential to generate engagement with the course / material. often professors who are getting a lot of chatgpt essays turned in are designing essays poorly (ie, asking for the types of formulaic responses that students find unengaging and unhelpful for their own academic development), and / or failing to provide instruction and support in how to actually write an essay.

on a more fundamental level, we often take for granted that essays are and should be foundational to an undergrad education, but i simply don't think this is self-evident or always true! what are we training students to do, and why? there are certainly jobs, career paths, and academic research areas in which essay-writing is an important skill. there are others in which it's not. the assumption that all undergrads need to demonstrate the same sorts of writing skills says more about the university and what pedagogues value than it does about those students' actual chances for future career success / financial stability. if we're designing assignments that, for many students, are mere hoops to jump through, then we shouldn't be surprised that many of them find ways to make the hoop-jumping faster and easier.

so cheating on that part would essentially mean that: a) their education/understanding is "invalid"

again, what i'm trying to get at here is larger questions about what we value in education, and why. it's true that if you don't practice writing the type of essay the academy demands of you, you won't learn that skill. but, why do we assume that skill is useful, valuable, or necessary in the first place? how many people actually need to write that way outside of undergrad classrooms? even for those who are intending to pursue a career in academia, the writing taught in undergrad should be, at best, a stepping-stone on the path to more effective and interesting means of written communication. once again, if the skill being mandated by the university is not useful for students, it should not be surprising that many of them resent having to demonstrate it, and turn to tools like chatgpt instead.

b) it discredits the work of other people in the same system/their classmates

this is an argument that many educators make, and i wholeheartedly disagree with it! first of all, i simply do not believe that student a's academic performance is relevant to the assessment of student b's. if a professor is grading that way, that's terrible grading and a terrible pedagogical philosophy. if a student has learned something from their coursework, that shouldn't be undercut or devalued by anything that their classmates have or haven't done.

what this type of argument points to on a deeper level is the fact that university degrees have acquired a sort of double meaning. although the university likes to propagate high-minded rhetoric about the intrinsic value of education, the degree granted is a class barrier that serves to allow certain people access to certain (usually promised to be higher-paying) jobs, and bar others from these jobs. this is a large part of what i'm talking about when i say that the university serves to perpetuate and enforce class stratification. and their narrative about degrees being markers of individual merit and achievement is undercut by the fact that they also plainly fear losing prestige status by granting degrees to those students considered 'unworthy'. if you can make it through an undergrad education without learning the skills the university purports to teach, that's a pretty massive indictment of the university—which, remember, is collecting a lot of tuition money for these degrees.

c) their future publications/written work in academia are going to be of worse quality

lots of assumptions baked in here—that undergrad essay-writing teaches 'good' (effective / clear) writing; that many academics don't already write poorly by these metrics; that aspiring academics have no other way of learning written communication skills (eg, outside of the academy, or in grad school).

d) in cases of people going to non academia jobs, like being a doctor or a lawyer, this would negatively impact their clients

firstly, i would again point out that in many non-academic jobs, academic writing is simply not a necessary skill; secondly, in both of the examples you cite here, these are people who need to go through a lot more schooling and training after undergrad, where they pick up what written communication skills they actually do need (eg, legal writing looks nothing like standard undergrad essay-writing anyway); thirdly, MANY people getting an undergraduate degree are intending to pursue jobs for which they need neither undergrad essay-writing skills, nor further higher education—there are so many reasons a person might want / need a college degree, and so many careers in which this specific academic skillset is simply not relevant for them.

e) they have bad work ethic = will not survive job industry

again, i think this is making some pretty big unstated assumptions! in general i don't really think that 'work ethic' (or the related 'laziness') is a useful way to try to evaluate people's behaviour, and this is a good example of one way in which it fails. if, like i said, we are dealing with a system in which people are told they need to receive a degree in order to have access to jobs they want and financial stability they need; and in which many of them are being forced to demonstrate a specific writing skill they may never need again and may have no interest in; and in which they are often not even receiving adequate training and help to learn and demonstrate that skill, even if they do want to; and in which they may be working other jobs, caring for family members, dealing with disabilities the institution does not provide support for, or any number of other life circumstances that make schoolwork difficult at best to complete; and in which a tool exists that may be able to help them complete some of this work freely and quickly... like, i simply do not fault students for using that tool!

there are so many points of failure in this system long before we get to this moment: the increasing pressure to get a college degree in the first place; the poorly designed curricula that prioritise skills considered 'standard' (for whom? why?) over skills that students actually need or want to acquire; professors who don't actually teach students how to write, yet expect them to turn in essay assignments anyway; specific essay assignments that are uninteresting and / or unhelpful to students; lack of support for students who are struggling with their workload or assignments in any number of ways (and no, 'come to office hours' is not adequate support for so many students and situations).

i simply do not care about people 'cheating' a system that is so fundamentally broken and unjust. it doesn't matter. the ability to write an undergrad essay is such an incredibly trivial and specific skill, and one that most people simply do not need. it doesn't make a person generally 'smarter' (fake concept) and certainly does not make them any more competent at the vast majority of jobs, careers, or general life skills. even for those very few who do need to know this specific thing, i reject the assumption that the university is the only way to learn it, or even a particularly effective way. once again, if chatgpt is successfully completing assignments, maybe those assignments weren't very good in the first place! and even the theoretical amazing professor is simply not able to counter all of the structural issues and inequities in the university system that produce students' desire to turn to tools like chatgpt in the first place. the textbot itself is simply not the issue here.

[cutestkilla]

Happy Sunday and thanks for the tags today @artsyunderstudy @alleycat0306 @youarenevertooold @alexalexinii and @bookish-bogwitch. I love your shares as always!

Today from me, some sentences from Chapter 2 of Hiding Out In The Open, which I updated yesterday. (Context: This is my gift fic for @artsyunderstudy about Simon and Baz bonding over a psych podcast.) WAY more than six because I'm absolutely not capable of finding a six sentence snip right now.

“follow up question: www.invisiblemind.org/who-are-you-at-2-am” The episode’s main guest is a data scientist. He’s speaking about how our web search histories reveal hidden things about our preferences and biases, even our health. Which is all very interesting, except Snow sent this to me, and I’m a bit stuck on just how much of the research hinges on people having searched for, shall we say, erotic materials. How is he expecting me to respond to this? With an insult, probably. Only now—thanks to learning all about the correlation between the unemployment rate and pornographic search traffic—all I can come up with is ‘jobless wanker’. And I won’t be sending that. (Can’t think about Snow touching himself.) (Not while we’re chatting. That would be crossing a line, I think.) (Also, I’m in public.) I parry instead. “You do realise it’s two in the afternoon right now, don’t you?” I send. “Have you gotten your days mixed up from your nights again? Here’s a hint: next time, look for the big flaming ball in the sky.” “don’t you want to know who *i* am at 2am?” he replies. And that’s my plan to not think about Snow wanking out the window.

Tags under the cut!

@ivelovedhimthroughworse @hushed-chorus @iamamythologicalcreature @shrekgogurt @raenestee @facewithoutheart @fatalfangirl @you-remind-me-of-the-babe @whatevertheweather @thewholelemon @whogaveyoupermission @forabeatofadrum @wellbelesbian @larkral @captain-aralias @shemakesmeforget @valeffelees @aristocratic-otter @angelsfalling16 @aroace-genderfluid-sheep @yeonjunenby @cosmicalart @j-nipper-95 @confused-bi-queer @nightimedreamersworld @brilla-brilla-estrellita @ileadacharmedlife @onepintobean @orange-peony @theearlgreymage @stitchyqueer @prettygoododds @technetiumai @skeedelvee @moodandmist @martsonmars and anyone else who wants to share!

[emp-711]

Triumphs and frustrations with a complex physical disability and a brain at nearly midlife… Searching for a champion to share and grow with

My Cerebral Palsy made life without diapers very traumatizing for me. From age 4–21, I was in underwear with bladder accidents from spasms at least once a week. Toilet training was a point of pride for my mom, even though most doctors and my preschool and elementary teachers told her not to focus on it. She thought I could outthink my body. Instead, having to plan my relief breaks around other people has given me kidney issues at 42 and that is after choosing to go back into diapers as a junior in college. Based on this experience, wearing diapers is healthier than waiting on people to help me to the bathroom. Also, as a guy who is 6 foot 4 and 170 pounds, toilet transfers several times a day are exhausting and potentially dangerous for me and my support people.

There is no correlation between incontinence and intelligence. Mom said she didn’t want me diapered after the typical age because she thought people would perceive me as being stupid…Well I have been wearing 24/7 for over 20 years including under my gown at my Ph.D graduation… 😘 … My advice to emerging adults with disabilities is that your ability to accomplish great things is a product motivation, not the undergarments you are wearing. In my observation and experience, the responsibility of motivation evolves throughout the developmental process. Initially, this responsibility lies with parents and other supports, to explore and educate themselves about success stories of adults with similar challenges, focusing on understanding the strategies that have led to positive outcomes. As youth with disabilities approach preadolescents (middle school), the responsibility gradually for exploration and experimentation gradually shifts from solely residing with the parental figure to a joint venture that increasingly becomes more driven by curiosity of the individual themselves. Today’s adolescent preteen and teenager is constantly engaged with personal technology and electronic media. The focus of at least some of this screen time can be given to meaningful discovery of not only strengths, interests, and abilities but also the possible strategies that can be used to bring abstract dreams into reality. As the time for high school approaches, a portion of this exploration time should be dedicated to experiential learning, this includes testing strategies that will allow the person with self-care challenges to participate in their community with minimal effects from their limitations. Some examples of considerations include exploring methods for community access through transportation, strategies for accessing nutrition while public and elimination (bladder/bowel) management.

My decision to use diapers full-time again with the occasional addition of male catheters, as I eluded to earlier, was the product of a New Year’s resolution in 2002. Ironically, I felt as if this was a means of asserting control over one aspect of my life. It was around the age of 25 that I began to realize that there were some unintended social consequences of my decision that I am still struggling to overcome. I have learned that midstream people are not very receptive to a guy in a wheelchair who needs fed and his diapers changed, but otherwise is completely cognitively intact, even bright with a sarcastic and very dry wit.

 I had to learn to have fun with it along the way, finding companionship from people who will understand my needs and embrace my choices has been difficult. After some research, I discovered that there was a group of people who enjoyed doing the same things I needed and mostly by choice, the ABDL and medfet communities. Happiness for me will be finding a woman who considers the AB and medical needs as normal and has fun doing it. The lifestyle or fetish angle removes the awkwardness for both of us. It would be awesome to be in a crowded public place (i.e. restaurant, sporting event) and know that there is at least one other person there who is experiencing the same sensation I am feeling inside as well as from the diaper against my body and clothing. At last I will not feel alone in the world. There is also some intrigue and humor in the idea that only we know that each other is wearing. For those of you who prefer more crude or masculine visualization, as I used to say in one of my profiles on a certain ABDL dating site, a diaper nor wheelchair should not also be a chastity belt. Just because I must wear for medical reasons does not mean I am stupid or otherwise not worthy of sharing myself with someone. Sexual intimacy alone is rarely the basis for a solid long-term relationship, however human touch is essential for me. Having no inhibitions about giving or receiving a hug or cuddle is a must for me because I have been deprived of it so much because of misconceptions about body and mind. I am looking for a partner who understands my ambitions and is not afraid to explore their own. The ability to have someone who you can share your most intimate thoughts and feelings with even on the worst days would be a blessing for me. I hope to find someone who is willing to learn and grow together.

If you’re still smiling after reading this… DM me or comment below :-)

[dragoneyes618]

"A study by professors Jay P. Greene, Albert Cheng, and Ian Kingsbury, found that the more education a person has, the more anti-Semitic he is likely to be.

Though earlier studies had suggested a correlation between low education levels and anti-Semitism, Greene et al suspected that those with higher education were too sophisticated to give “wrong” answers when asked straight up how they felt about Jews or whether they agreed with blatantly anti-Semitic stereotypes. So instead, the researchers used a test based on double standards by asking about comparable cases involving a Jewish example and a non-Jewish example. And they found that “more highly educated people were more likely to apply principles more harshly to Jewish examples.”

In the test, no subject was asked both about the Jewish case and the non-Jewish case to prevent them from discerning the nature of the test. When asked, for instance, whether “attachment to a foreign country creates a conflict of interest,” respondents with four-year degrees were 7 percent more likely, and those with advanced degrees 13 percent more likely, to express concern when the country was Israel than when it was Mexico. Those with advanced degrees were 12 percent more likely to support the military in prohibiting Jewish yarmulkes than in prohibiting Sikh turbans. While a majority of respondents supported a ban on public gatherings during Covid, those with advanced degrees were 11 percent more likely to do so with respect to Orthodox funerals than BLM protests.

The authors conclude their Tablet article (“Are Educated People More Anti-Semitic?” March 30, 2021), by quoting Harvard professor emerita Ruth Wisse, who argues that anti-Semitism flourishes when “it forms part of a political movement and serves a political purpose.” And such political causes are increasingly those favored by the well-educated in the US.

Horn herself provides a fascinating real-life example of differential treatment involving Jews. She wrote a piece on anti-Semitism for the New York Times. During the editorial process, she was relentlessly fact-checked on her assertion that violation of Jewish women had been widespread in the 1918–1921 Russian civil war and in the 1941 Farhud pogrom in Baghdad. Yet that same paper rushed to print a highly inflammatory (an ancient Tunisian synagogue was burned down in response) and false Hamas claim that Israel had bombed a Gaza hospital and inflicted 500 casualties, with no apparent fact-checking.

Often times the differential attention focused on Jews reflects an obsession with us. Since 1948, the number of casualties in the Arab-Israeli conflict ranks somewhere around 50th in world conflicts. Yet it has sucked up almost all the attention. Over half a million people were killed in the Syrian civil war, including some with poison gas, and millions displaced from their homes. Black Darfurian tribesman have been slaughtered by Sudanese Arabs in even greater numbers. Can anyone remember one mass demonstration protesting those slaughters? Or against Russia’s deliberate targeting of hospitals, apartment buildings, and other civilian sites in Ukraine? Or against Chinese concentration camps for two million imprisoned Uighurs? Compare that silence to dozens of anti-Israel demonstrations every day in cities and on campuses around the world.

Israel is constantly accused of genocide against Palestinians, even though under Israeli rule, Palestinians life expectancies increased 50 percent and infant mortality declined by three-quarters. Yet it is Hamas whose charter explicitly calls for the extermination of Jews around the globe — i.e., genocide. This is inversion of the worst sort. The accusation of genocide against Israel is a form of erasure of the Holocaust; alleged Jewish guilt an expiation of gentile sins of many greater times magnitude.

- https://mishpacha.com/anti-semitism-for-smarties/

[rohanabb]

ell-hs on tumblr / © stills / unknown textbook (post) / sir gawain and the green knight, tr. simon armitage

YOU ARE ORGANIC / PLUM-HEARTED / OYSTER-THROATED

> root access granted

SKELETON / DOSSIER (ATTACHED) / PINTEREST / PLOTS

> task directory: arrival. introduction. first impressions.

BASICS.

𝐍𝐀𝐌𝐄. Rohan Ibrahim Abbasi, PhD 𝐍𝐈𝐂𝐊𝐍𝐀𝐌𝐄𝐒. Ro 𝐅𝐀𝐂𝐄 𝐂𝐋𝐀𝐈𝐌. Riz Ahmed

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐓𝐈𝐍𝐆𝐔𝐈𝐒𝐇𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐅𝐄𝐀𝐓𝐔𝐑𝐄𝐒. medium height, lean build; cropped hair; short, trimmed beard; casual posture, typically leaning against counters, walls, or doorways with arms crossed; kind eyes. 𝐓𝐀𝐓𝐓𝐎𝐎𝐒 / 𝐏𝐈𝐄𝐑𝐂𝐈𝐍𝐆𝐒. none.

𝐀𝐆𝐄 / 𝐃.𝐎.𝐁. 38 / 30 Sept. 1985 𝐙𝐎𝐃𝐈𝐀𝐂. Libra

𝐇𝐎𝐌𝐄𝐓𝐎𝐖𝐍. Mississauga, ON, Canada 𝐅𝐀𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐘. • Muhammad Erhan Abbasi. Father, b. 1949 • Mariyam Abbasi. Mother, b. 1953 • Samaya Hijazi. Sister, b. 1981. Married, two children (17f, 12m). • Naima Abbasi Ito . Sister, b. 1982. Married, three children. (11f, 5m, 5f) • Hanif Muhammad Abbasi. Brother, b. 1987. Married, one child (2m).

𝐆𝐄𝐍𝐃𝐄𝐑 / 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐍𝐎𝐔𝐍𝐒. trans man / he & him 𝐒𝐄𝐗𝐔𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐓𝐘. bisexual 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐈𝐓𝐀𝐋 𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐓𝐔𝐒. single, formerly engaged

𝐏𝐎𝐒𝐈𝐓𝐈𝐕𝐄 𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐈𝐓𝐒. charismatic, focused, creative, enthusiastic, tenacious 𝐍𝐄𝐆𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐕𝐄 𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐈𝐓𝐒. stubborn, arrogant, dismissive, self-righteous, overzealous 𝐇𝐀𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐒. nail & cuticle biting; interrupting; leaving personal projects unfinished; double texting 𝐇𝐎𝐁𝐁𝐈𝐄𝐒. long distance running; a moderator on r/askbiology and frequent contributor to r/askscience; occasional tutoring high school students & undergrads

𝐏𝐄𝐓𝐒 (𝐋𝐄𝐅𝐓 𝐀𝐓 𝐇𝐎𝐌𝐄). none.

THE FOUNDATION.

𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐅𝐅 𝐓𝐈𝐓𝐋𝐄. Staff Researcher

𝐏𝐑𝐄𝐕𝐈𝐎𝐔𝐒 𝐏𝐎𝐒𝐈𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍(𝐒). • May 2018 – Dec 2018. Research Assistant at Site-17, Talbot Lab • Jan 2018 – Apr 2020. Postdoctoral Researcher at Site-17, Talbot Lab • Apr 2020 – Nov 2021. Postdoctoral Researcher at Site-17, Keir Research Group

𝐋𝐀𝐒𝐓 𝐀𝐒𝐒𝐈𝐆𝐍𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓. (November 2021 – Present) Site-169 Anomalous Entity Engagement Division, Schaffer Research Group. Investigating class-B amnestic-facilitated disruption of the hive mind. Tested on colonies with lineages from samples of SCP-1166, SCP-4589, and SCP-171. Experiment ended in failure, requiring fumigation of lab vivariums.

𝐒𝐊𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐒 / 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐅𝐈𝐂𝐈𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐈𝐄𝐒

academic. BSc in Biochemistry with a minor in Physiology (following a drop from the pre-med track) from McGill, MSc in Pharmacology from McGill, PhD in Neuroscience from University of Toronto extracurricular. tbd

EXTRAS.

𝐁𝐈𝐎𝐆𝐑𝐀𝐏𝐇𝐘.

Dr. Rohan Abbasi first came to the Foundation’s attention shortly following the defense and subsequent publication of his master’s thesis, entitled “Correlation between the potency of hallucinogens in the mouse head-twitch response assay and their behavioral and subjective effects in other species.” (Neuropharmacology 2014). An auspicious start for someone who was, of his own admission, little more than a glorified lab grunt prior to the manuscript’s completion. The Foundation’s growing interest in Dr. Abbasi swiftly followed with his continuing doctoral research into the treatment of complex-PTSD and psychopathies with medical-grade psychedelics and hallucinogens.  Records indicate this culmination of Dr. Abbasi’s academic focus to be some combination of chance — with a Research Assistantship in Professor Szymanski’s research group at the University of Toronto open, and Rohan Abbasi in need of additional funding — and a longer trend of interest in and unorthodox approaches to pharmacology and medicine. It was with this in mind that a small but robustly funded lab at site-17 solicited a freshly minted Dr. Abbasi to interview for an opening postdoctoral research position within the group.  In the seven years since his tenure at the Foundation began, Dr. Rohan Abbasi’s reputation and portfolio tell vastly different stories of the same man. Colleagues and close personal acquaintances of Dr. Abbasi consistently praise the discipline, energy, and creativity he brings to research settings. Indeed, much of Dr. Abbasi’s early career at the Foundation is categorized by a nearly unending stream of proposals submitted, findings published, journal clubs established, and special interest committees formed. It became, however, the concern of his hiring supervisor that such enthusiasm and, frankly, naivete would outstrip the professional demands of this particular role. Following agreement from all parties, Dr. Abbasi’s fellowship continued under the supervision of the Keir group.  Thus, a pattern began to emerge. Dr. Abbasi filled his new position with what former colleagues would now consider characteristic effusiveness and vigor. Rohan himself jumped between several projects, submitting additional proposals for each with or without final approval from his new supervisor, nearly all of which were, unsurprisingly, summarily rejected. This had seemingly little effect on Dr. Abbasi’s commitment to proposing outlandish, unorthodox, unrealistic, and in more than a few cases downright insulting avenues of research or applications of novel (often as-yet-unreplicated) findings.   Neither Dr. Abbasi nor his new team were under any illusions, then, on the circumstances and stakes surrounding the assumption of his third post, now in the Anomalous Entity Engagement Division. Indeed, it seems he has finally understood the precarious situation he has continuously engaged in, and has pivoted to bolstering his professional reputation alongside his personal. It’s with this mutual agreement that Dr. Abbasi has been encouraged to continue his work on class B amnestics.

𝐖𝐀𝐍𝐓𝐄𝐃 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐍𝐄𝐂𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍𝐒. dm for skeleton-specific details.

𝐂𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐀𝐂𝐓𝐄𝐑 / 𝐍𝐀𝐑𝐑𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐕𝐄 𝐓𝐑𝐎𝐏𝐄𝐒. tbd.

𝐂𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐀𝐂𝐓𝐄𝐑 𝐈𝐍𝐒𝐏𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍𝐒. Palamades Sextus ( The Locked Tomb ); The Biologist ( Annihilation ); Cosima Niehaus ( Orphan Black ); Dr. Allison Cameron ( House ); Rose Franklin ( The Themis Files ); Hank McCoy/Beast ( X-Men ); definitely others

𝐌𝐄𝐌𝐄𝐒. tbd.

[religion-is-a-mental-illness]

By: John Barry

Published: Sep 6, 2023

Do you ever hear a new concept, and suddenly realise that it has tapped into an important truth that had already been floating around on the hinterlands of your consciousness for some time? Well, 2019 saw the birth of one such idea: the concept of luxury beliefs (explained below), which was launched in the New York Post by Dr Rob Henderson, a former student of Yale and recent PhD graduate of Cambridge. The concept struck a chord with many people, and academia suddenly became very interested in this wunderkind Henderson. Unexpectedly, this interest hasn’t been reciprocated, leaving the academic world somewhat perplexed.

As an interviewer, it’s hard for me to say which is more interesting - the story of why Rob Henderson turned his back on contemporary academia, what he is doing next, or indeed what it is about his background that helped him recognise the phenomenon of luxury beliefs before anyone else did. Read on and decide for yourself.

--

John Barry (JB): You are interested in a range of topics in psychology, sociology, and anthropology. What drew you to studying psychology? 

Rob Henderson (RH): I suppose I’ve always been curious about human nature and social behaviour. What got me started on the academic track was when I was enlisted in the military – over 10 years ago now – I found a copy of How the Mind Works by Steven Pinker at an airport on my way to a deployment in Al Udeid. I picked up this book because I thought the cover and title were interesting. Hmmm… how does the mind work? So I picked it up on a whim, read the book, found it fascinating, and that just got me started in reading more psychology books, watching psychology lectures on YouTube, and that led me to decide to study psychology more formally. I applied to Yale and studied Psychology as an undergrad there. And while I was studying psychology, I was also experiencing a shift in the social environment, in the social class backgrounds of the people who were around me, and so naturally I connected what I was studying and these anecdotal observations. This contributed to my decision to keep studying psychology and get as much education as I could, and that led me to apply for a PhD in Cambridge which I finished in December of 2022.

JB: Was there any particular thing in Pinker’s book that hooked you?

RH: He talks about the desire for social esteem, recognition, respect. How well regarded we are by others is not a material reward, it lives in the minds of other people. Pinker links this to evolutionary psychology and how important social belonging and acceptance were in the human ancestral environment, and that was something I had never thought about at that point in my life in a conscious explicit way.

JB: Is this topic related to your PhD?

RH: I was a research assistant in Paul Bloom’s lab. He’s a developmental psychologist who studies the origins of morality in babies and young children, and that became interesting to me. I read Jonathan Haidt’s book The Righteous Mind and read about moral foundations theory, so those interests led me to study this for my PhD. It’s unrelated to my public writing, but I do still study status. One of the studies we published a couple of years ago found that social anxiety, which is a proxy for preoccupation with status, is heavily correlated with how morally objectionable people rate various transgressions. One interpretation of this is the more concerned people are with their status, the more harshly they condemn moral wrongdoers.

JB: So this is something you published from your PhD?

RH: Yes, in the journal Scientific Reports. During my doctoral program, I led another set of studies as well, and co-authored a commentary and a chapter, but otherwise I don’t really have a strong interest to publish academic texts. It was an interesting experience just to see how peer review works and how academic publishing works, but I find writing for a broader audience more interesting and fulfilling. But it’s not that I don’t appreciate it – I spend a lot of time reading these papers and trying to pull out interesting tidbits or writing about them or sharing them online, but as far as formal academic papers go, there are probably not that many left in me.

JB: Sure. When you are writing for a wider audience it doesn’t mean that academics can’t read those articles too. Going back to your experiences in Yale and Cambridge, did they teach anything about male psychology?

RH: There is some teaching on sex differences, and there isn’t that much controversy about it there, but there isn’t that much specifically about men. My impression is that if you were to highlight challenges that men face, and controversies around male behaviour, well then it does have to be framed in one specific way. If you were to cast men as victims of anything in any way I think that would be treated very unseriously. That’s just my general impression. Sex differences are probably still ok to talk about, at least in academic environments among peers, but male psychology I don’t think is taken particularly seriously.

JB: It’s sad to see that even in the most prestigious universities. If they were to teach male psychology, what do you think would be the most important topics to cover?

RH: It’s interesting that a lot of this stuff is discussed in academic research. I wrote a piece a couple of years ago, for Bari Weiss’ outlet Common Sense (now The Free Press), and for that piece I did quite a bit of research on developmental psychology which found that boys appear to be more sensitive to environmental and parental inputs than girls - not that girls are unresponsive to these inputs – but boys who are raised in single parent homes, or particularly unstable or harsh environments, are much more likely to have detrimental health consequences, so later are more likely to experience poverty and unemployment, addiction, criminality and so on, and I think these things might be worth focusing on, especially as we continue to see more and more boys and young men lose interest in education and attaining gainful employment and rates of incarceration per capita appear to be rising too, especially among men across all ethnic groups in the lower socioeconomic strata. Men with low levels of education and income are more likely to be incarcerated than they were in decades past which to me indicates that this isn’t entirely about income. Poor people existed 50 years ago, but a poor man today is much more likely to be arrested than a poor man 50 years ago.

JB: Poor families are less likely to have the stability of a father in the home. Warren Farrell described prisons as ‘institutes of dad deprivation’, or something like that. It’s interesting that you say boys are more sensitive to environmental inputs, whereas the impression we get is that boys are tougher than girls. I wonder if boys are raised to be more tough because we know that if we don’t raise them to be tough they will be more sensitive than girls.

RH: I’ve never heard that hypothesis before, that’s really interesting. So we have this social pressure for men to be tough to counteract their intrinsic sensitivity… that seems plausible. Joyce Benenson has research showing that boys are immunologically more compromised than girls, more likely to be sick and to die from illness. This was a big surprise during the peak of the covid pandemic, that boys and men were more likely to contract and fall seriously ill and die from this illness. I’ve talked to some women about this and they were shocked to hear these statistics. In the popular imagination, men are sturdier, and though we may be physically stronger, in other ways perhaps men aren’t quite as naturally resilient as we thought.

JB: And men tend to fall in love more quickly than-

RH: They are more likely to say ‘l love you’, and say it first, which surprises a lot of people-

JB: Putting themselves in a vulnerable position, demonstrating vulnerability… and suicide? Maybe there is something to this idea of the vulnerability of men…

RH: Something that just came to mind John is that it may be that the most disagreeable, hostile, aggressive and resilient people are men, but that’s just the fatter tail in the right side of the distribution, but these men become the mental model with which we compare everyone else, so we think that men in general behave that way, whereas in fact we are thinking of only the top 5% or 1% of men who act in that way, whereas most men aren’t like that.

JB: From a psychological point of view, sometimes the most aggressive men are fending off people who might hurt them, because they may have experienced severe hurt or abuse in their past. I think sometimes the idea of ‘fragile masculinity’ is just used to sneer at men, but there is something to the idea that sometimes men who are broken have to put themselves back together in a way that is harder to break again in the future. But it might be a very abrasive persona that they adopt.

RH: There was a great memoir a while back by Nora Vincent called Self Made Man. This was about a woman successfully impersonating a man for a year, and one of the things that surprised her was, she describes men as carrying this armour around them that signals strength and toughness to the world because they know that if they appear weak or vulnerable, other men will sense that and take advantage. So this was something that she had to learn to cultivate herself, because if she dressed as a man but expressed vulnerability and tenderness then other men would immediately sniff this out and sense how exploitable she – or in this sense he – was. And I found that insightful, something that only a woman who is impersonating a man would pick up on. I don’t think a man would necessarily understand in an explicit, verbalized way what they are doing when they project toughness.

JB: The armour is ok but dropping the armour is necessary sometimes too. My colleague Martin Seager described how in group therapy with men the dynamic is different that in mixed sex groups because male groups will have a lot of joking around, or banter as we call it here. But quite quicky the dynamic will go from banter to sharing serious experiences and comforting each other, and just as quickly again the dynamic can shift back again to banter. Getting back to universities teaching male psychology, this is the kind of thing that might be interesting, or on clinical training courses at least. But I don’t think that happens. Do you think there is enough diversity of thought on campus?

RH: No. There isn’t enough diversity of thought, and it seems to be shrinking. One of the reasons I decided to come to Cambridge was because of what was happening in America, with political correctness, and professors being targeted, with students and faculty uniting to try to fire academics. I saw it first hand at Yale, and at Cambridge I’ve seen it as well. Famously there was the case of Jordan Peterson having his invitation revoked. I’ve also seen behind the scenes to examples of people who were less well known academics who have been fired or had offers rescinded for basically disagreeing, for their ideas. Not for anything they had done or any behaviour they directed at any individual, but just ideas that they have expressed, either in writing or in podcasts etc. and people took issue with it. Generally my heuristic is that for every example we hear of where someone gets fired, there are probably 10 others that we don’t hear about, of people who aren’t famous or well known, who are just quietly let go. One reason I decided to relinquish continuing a traditional academic career path, and why I decided to get involved with the University of Austin, which is this new university – UATX – which is launching in Texas, because they made explicit their commitment to freedom of expression and academic inquiry, which is what I hoped that all universities would be like when I first matriculated to Yale. But instead, the place that people feel least free to speak their minds are oftentimes university, which I found absolutely stunning.

JB: Tell me more about the University of Austin. Is it a physical university?

RH: It’s in the process of being built. At the moment we are running summer programmes. I believe the inaugural date for the first official cohort of undergraduates is in the fall of 2024 and it will be a physical university. The aim is to be a traditional liberal arts education where students can feel free to explore novel ideas. There are a lot of high profile people involved, for example Pano Kanelos the former president of St John’s College in Annapolis, he’s now the president of UATX, Bari Weiss, Dorian Abbot from the University of Chicago, Glenn Loury from Brown, Peter Boghossian and many other notable academics. It’s still the early stages but I’m hoping we are building what a university should be.

JB: Is this the beginning of a trend?

RH: I hope so. Not that UATX should be cloned, but I hope more universities attempt to reform higher ed.

JB: I hope so too. There are some really questionable ideas doing the rounds in Social Sciences departments these days, such as negative views of masculinity, and ideas about male privilege and patriarchy theory. You came up with the idea of ‘luxury beliefs’ a few years ago. Would you say that ideas like patriarchy theory are examples of ‘luxury beliefs’?

RH: So luxury beliefs I’ve defined as ideas and opinions that confer status on the upper classes while often inflicting costs on the lower classes. The idea of patriarchy might be a luxury belief. A lot of things fall under the umbrella of patriarchy, for example a lot of people think marriage and monogamy are an outgrowth of patriarchy. A lot of highly educated and affluent people will publicly denigrate marriage, patriarchy, masculinity… all these things in their mind falls into the same broad category. And yet these people are the most likely to get married, the least likely to get divorced, they would be the last people to consider raising their kids without a father or strong male role model in their lives. And yet by broadcasting this belief and spreading it they have inadvertently created a situation where lower income people are less likely to get married – there’s more single mothers, single parents, more kids growing up fatherless. What’s interesting is that if you publicly discuss the challenges of kids who grow up fatherless, a lot of the anti-patriarchy people will cast an eye of suspicion upon you, like ‘Why would this be a problem?’, ‘What’s so special about fathers?’, ‘Maybe it’s a good thing’, ‘The real problem is that single mothers don’t have enough financial support, and if they just had enough money… a stack of cash can replace a father’, and all of this I think is associated with an anti-patriarchy ideology, and yes it could be considered a luxury belief. It’s interesting to think about it: if you asked on a scale of one to ten ‘Are men a problem?’ higher educated people and more affluent people would probably score on the higher end of that scale.

JB: We are both fans of The Sopranos (I co-authored an article about the relevance to men in therapy). Almost none of the characters are likable in the Sopranos, so why is it so popular?

RH: It’s like with any good story, when they take you into someone’s world, into their inner life, then someone who you wouldn’t ordinally sympathise with, you suddenly adopt their perspective and understand where they are coming from. The therapy sessions between Tony Soprano and Dr Melphi was an amazing device, so you could get a glimpse into his psyche. There were flashbacks to his severely unstable and dysfunctional childhood, with his father who was a gangster and a murderer and his mother who was clearly mentally unwell. So he was immersed in chaos and criminality from a very young age. And the show does a great job of depicting Tony outside of his criminal enterprise. You see him as a husband, a father, a regular guy going about his day wrestling with a lot of the same questions that everyone else wrestles with. So they are showing the humanity inside these characters.

JB: In a way you are saying that by walking in their shoes we are able to empathise with these characters. In male psychology we use the term ‘empathy gap’ and in The Sopranos there are a couple of times where Tony Soprano is the victim of domestic violence-

RH: I saw that in your piece. It’s so funny I’m so blind to it, that when you wrote that… I remember when I watched it about two years ago during the lockdown and it didn’t even occur to me that it was domestic violence when women are slapping him or throwing things at him. I just thought ‘Oh it’s Tony, it’s fine. He’s a man.’

JB: Exactly!

RH: David Chase [screenwriter of The Sopranos] was walking a fine line. I think for the first three or four seasons at least he was sort of on Tony’s side, so it was easy for the audience to forget who this guy really is, and what he is capable of and what he’s done. But especially when you get to the final couple of seasons, like when Tony murders his nephew, and he orders the death of Adrianna, he’s just getting more and more morally compromised. Finally towards the end you start to understand. There’s a great book on evil by Roy Baumeister called Evil: Inside Human Cruelty and Violence where he points out that if you want to understand evil, you have to suspend your judgement. You have to be willing to see things from the eyes of the perpetrator. But it’s even more important to remember that these people are evil and the rest of society needs to be protected from them. So it’s a tricky balance. They are still responsible for their acts even if you understand where they are coming from.

JB: I’ve sometimes said that one of the biggest challenges to forensic psychology is to be able to empathise with people who might have committed horrible crimes. I suspect some people are reluctant to because of the fear that if they empathise, they will then start to  sympathise-

RH: And they don’t want to justify what the criminal has done. Yes. I think if someone made a mini-series about Hitler or Stalin or Mao, that might be very uncomfortable for a lot of people! Any villain, if you make them the main character, they just become an anti-hero.

JB: An interesting phenomenon. Maybe in a related way, military history is full of heroes, but we usually think of the military is being a cause of psychological damage to men, through combat stress or bullying etc. One of the surprising things I found when writing Perspectives in Male Psychology was finding out that the military could be good for mental health. How much was this your experience of the US Air Force?

RH: One thing is a selection effect. The military in the past century has perfected their screening method – standardised tests of physical health – and maybe mental health to a degree – and proxies for intelligence, and then multiple appointments, and then basic military training which selects for people who are fairly mentally adjusted. There are lots of hoops - it’s a long and extremely intense experience especially for 17 or 18 year olds. Lots of people don’t make it – they don’t make it through all of the hoops. So up front a lot of people are screened out. And then the experience of the military is unique. They are very good at creating communities out of strangers. They have learned, maybe through trial and error over the course of centuries, how to take a bunch of random men from all parts of the world or country, and make them feel like family members, getting them to feel connected. Even things like the uniform – immediately your identity is stripped. In basic training they shave your head, you are put in uniform, everyone is called by their last name, so immediately you feel like you are part of this group. So there is community, comradery, structure, predictability. When you are deployed and in the midst of severe conflict, there can be unpredictability introduced but day to day you know what the rules are, what’s expected of you, how to advance in the rank structure, who you are responsible for, who your superiors are, how to behave. All of these explicit guidelines make life easier, especially for young men. In the outside world there are all of these questions like ‘Who am I? What am I doing?’  All of these anxieties around identity. But in the military your identity is very clear. Success is clearly defined. You get regular feedback, performance reports. For a lot of guys it’s like a video game – success and failure are very clearly defined.

JB: Could it work as therapy? Could you take Christopher Moltisanti (The Sopranos) into the military and help him?

RH: He has a severe temper problem. I just don’t know if he could handle subjugating himself to the military. I had a cousin who tried to join the marines. At basic training he punched one of the recruits and then he tried to fight a drill instructor. They kicked him out. I think that might happen to Chris too. But maybe AJ (the son of Tony Soprano) could have been ok? Or maybe the young Tony Soprano. He was a high school athlete, with a high IQ, it could have worked for him, before he got too caught up in a life of crime.

JB: You joined the Air Force at age 17. What motivated you to join, and did it prepare you for the life you have led since?

RH: I joined because I grew up in foster homes and I wanted to flee as soon as I could to escape the complete chaos and disorder around me. My friends had similar upbringings. I barely passed high school, just getting into a lot of trouble, and I knew that I wasn’t on a good track, and I wasn’t really ready for college. I wouldn’t have been a good student anyway at that age, I was just so undisciplined and unfocused. So the military was a very appealing option because I knew that it would immediately get me out of the environment I was in, at that time in Red Bluff, California. I knew it would immediately get me out of there, put me on a completely different track, put me around new people, give me a different kind of structure. There were also older adults too. So one of my teachers was in the Air Force – he suggested it. My best friend’s dad also recommended I join. So these two older men that I respected, both of them could see there was some latent potential, and once I got there, all of the things I mentioned before – the discipline, respect, comradery, setting goals, building good habits – all of those things really helped me.

The other thing that I think people focus less on with the benefits of the military is… well you are well aware of the ‘young male syndrome’? 18, 19, 20 are the most volatile years of a young man’s life, most likely to commit crimes, acts of aggression, impulse, drugs, speeding, but because the military has such an overpowering structure where every aspect of your life is controlled, you can’t make mistakes. I mean you can, but they make it very clear that if you fail a drug test for example, you go to military prison. You can’t get away with anything. So it presses fast forward on the most volatile phase of your life, and then by the time you finish your enlistment in your early 20s, you have cooled off, you’ve matured, you are a bit less impulsive and full of anger and hormones. So even if you didn’t learn any lessons at all, it was a period of your life that you couldn’t screw up too badly.

JB: That’s a very good point. You mentioned ‘young male syndrome’, I read recently that young people are less likely to take risks now than youngsters in the past.

RH: They are still likely to be their most volatile years. I recently wrote an essay in The Free Press about why teenagers aren’t driving any more, and there are so many factors. As Jean Twenge says “The party’s on Instagram and Snapchat now”.  I think social media is more appealing to girls, but video games are appealing to boys, as outlets for aggression and accomplishment. You can get your 5 buddies from class and go on a raid on World of Warcraft. Well, men used to go on raids, actual physical raids, which aren’t a good thing to do, but boys get excited about it still, online. And that’s how they spend their Friday nights instead of going out and getting drunk and speeding on the highway. Maybe that’s ok, but taking some risks, testing your limits, in some ways is actually a good thing. I’m curious as to where this is going to go, when you have this generation who are afraid or unwilling to take risks.

JB: I wonder how this generation would fare if a war broke out, not on Xbox, but in reality.

RH: The Pentagon said that 78% of adults wouldn’t qualify for enlisting in the military. That’s 8 out of 10 men aged 17 to 24, primarily due to issues of obesity, lack of education, and criminal records, tattoos, mental health issues - if you have repeated episodes of depression and anxiety. Jonathan Haidt has shown how anxiety and depression are increasing in teenagers and young adults in the last 15 years or so, which is alarming. Maybe some of these issues are intertwined: if you are never leaving your house, if you are always living your life online, this is contributing to issues of depression and anxiety to some extent.

JB: If you were to give advice to a guy aged 17 coming from a similar background as yourself who was considering options for their future…?

RH: My advice would be different to someone from a straight-A’s background, but a background similar to me… Look at your friends and say ask yourself if this is the kind of person you want to be like in five years time, or 10 years. Or look at people around you who are a little bit older. I worked at a restaurant when I was a teenager and I saw guys in their early 20s, or mid 20s, still working there, not making very much money. The highlight of their week was getting paid on Friday and drinking away the weekend, smoking, doing drugs, partying, it just didn’t seem like the kind of person I wanted to be when I was 25 years old. So consider getting a different peer group, whether that’s joining the military, getting involved in sports, volunteering… find a different crew to hang out with.

JB: Good advice. I know you have started Substack this year, and are with the University of Austin. Are there any other new projects coming up?

RH: I’m putting the final touches to my book. I recently did a book cover reveal on my newsletter and on Twitter/X and will say more about the publication date soon. The book elaborates on some of the things we have talked about, using my life and the lives of my childhood friends as a framework for understand what is going on with young men today, the ‘lost boys’ phenomenon that’s going on in the US and western countries in general. So most of my time is invested in my book and my Substack.

--

Final thoughts There is no doubt that academia needs more people like Dr Rob Henderson who can bring a fresh perspective to a culture that in recent years has started going stale. Some people say it’s a shame that he has left academia, but they are missing the point: he is helping rediscover – or reinvent - academia, and all of us left frozen on the deck need to take notice. A bit like the boy in the story of The Emperor’s New Clothes, Rob Henderson has seen right through the facade of highbrow elitism and the ivory-tower illusion of today’s academic world. His story is without doubt an interesting one, and definitely one to follow in the coming years.

[why-am-i-here-just-to-suffer]

Guys, gals and nonbinary pals: I present the latest development in Dystopian Tech Inventions:

[begin article: "Are You Ready for Workplace Brain Scanning?"]

"Get ready: Neurotechnology is coming to the workplace. Neural sensors are now reliable and affordable enough to support commercial pilot projects that extract productivity-enhancing data from workers’ brains. These projects aren’t confined to specialized workplaces; they’re also happening in offices, factories, farms, and airports. The companies and people behind these neurotech devices are certain that they will improve our lives. But there are serious questions about whether work should be organized around certain functions of the brain, rather than the person as a whole.

To be clear, the kind of neurotech that’s currently available is nowhere close to reading minds. Sensors detect electrical activity across different areas of the brain, and the patterns in that activity can be broadly correlated with different feelings or physiological responses, such as stress, focus, or a reaction to external stimuli. These data can be exploited to make workers more efficient—and, proponents of the technology say, to make them happier. Two of the most interesting innovators in this field are the Israel-based startup InnerEye, which aims to give workers superhuman abilities, and Emotiv, a Silicon Valley neurotech company that’s bringing a brain-tracking wearable to office workers, including those working remotely.

The fundamental technology that these companies rely on is not new: Electroencephalography (EEG) has been around for about a century, and it’s commonly used today in both medicine and neuroscience research. For those applications, the subject may have up to 256 electrodes attached to their scalp with conductive gel to record electrical signals from neurons in different parts of the brain. More electrodes, or “channels,” mean that doctors and scientists can get better spatial resolution in their readouts—they can better tell which neurons are associated with which electrical signals.

What is new is that EEG has recently broken out of clinics and labs and has entered the consumer marketplace. This move has been driven by a new class of “dry” electrodes that can operate without conductive gel, a substantial reduction in the number of electrodes necessary to collect useful data, and advances in artificial intelligence that make it far easier to interpret the data. Some EEG headsets are even available directly to consumers for a few hundred dollars.

While the public may not have gotten the memo, experts say the neurotechnology is mature and ready for commercial applications. “This is not sci-fi,” says James Giordano, chief of neuroethics studies at Georgetown University Medical Center. “This is quite real.”

How InnerEye’s TSA-boosting technology works

In an office in Herzliya, Israel, Sergey Vaisman sits in front of a computer. He’s relaxed but focused, silent and unmoving, and not at all distracted by the seven-channel EEG headset he’s wearing. On the computer screen, images rapidly appear and disappear, one after another. At a rate of three images per second, it’s just possible to tell that they come from an airport X-ray scanner. It’s essentially impossible to see anything beyond fleeting impressions of ghostly bags and their contents.

“Our brain is an amazing machine,” Vaisman tells us as the stream of images ends. The screen now shows an album of selected X-ray images that were just flagged by Vaisman’s brain, most of which are now revealed to have hidden firearms. No one can knowingly identify and flag firearms among the jumbled contents of bags when three images are flitting by every second, but Vaisman’s brain has no problem doing so behind the scenes, with no action required on his part. The brain processes visual imagery very quickly. According to Vaisman, the decision-making process to determine whether there’s a gun in complex images like these takes just 300 milliseconds.

What takes much more time are the cognitive and motor processes that occur after the decision making—planning a response (such as saying something or pushing a button) and then executing that response. If you can skip these planning and execution phases and instead use EEG to directly access the output of the brain’s visual processing and decision-making systems, you can perform image-recognition tasks far faster. The user no longer has to actively think: For an expert, just that fleeting first impression is enough for their brain to make an accurate determination of what’s in the image.

Vaisman is the vice president of R&D of InnerEye, an Israel-based startup that recently came out of stealth mode. InnerEye uses deep learning to classify EEG signals into responses that indicate “targets” and “nontargets.” Targets can be anything that a trained human brain can recognize. In addition to developing security screening, InnerEye has worked with doctors to detect tumors in medical images, with farmers to identify diseased plants, and with manufacturing experts to spot product defects. For simple cases, InnerEye has found that our brains can handle image recognition at rates of up to 10 images per second. And, Vaisman says, the company’s system produces results just as accurate as a human would when recognizing and tagging images manually—InnerEye is merely using EEG as a shortcut to that person’s brain to drastically speed up the process.

While using the InnerEye technology doesn’t require active decision making, it does require training and focus. Users must be experts at the task, well trained in identifying a given type of target, whether that’s firearms or tumors. They must also pay close attention to what they’re seeing—they can’t just zone out and let images flash past. InnerEye’s system measures focus very accurately, and if the user blinks or stops concentrating momentarily, the system detects it and shows the missed images again.

Having a human brain in the loop is especially important for classifying data that may be open to interpretation. For example, a well-trained image classifier may be able to determine with reasonable accuracy whether an X-ray image of a suitcase shows a gun, but if you want to determine whether that X-ray image shows something else that’s vaguely suspicious, you need human experience. People are capable of detecting something unusual even if they don’t know quite what it is.

“We can see that uncertainty in the brain waves,” says InnerEye founder and chief technology officer Amir Geva. “We know when they aren’t sure.” Humans have a unique ability to recognize and contextualize novelty, a substantial advantage that InnerEye’s system has over AI image classifiers. InnerEye then feeds that nuance back into its AI models. “When a human isn’t sure, we can teach AI systems to be not sure, which is better training than teaching the AI system just one or zero,” says Geva. “There is a need to combine human expertise with AI.” InnerEye’s system enables this combination, as every image can be classified by both computer vision and a human brain.

Using InnerEye’s system is a positive experience for its users, the company claims. “When we start working with new users, the first experience is a bit overwhelming,” Vaisman says. “But in one or two sessions, people get used to it, and they start to like it.” Geva says some users do find it challenging to maintain constant focus throughout a session, which lasts up to 20 minutes, but once they get used to working at three images per second, even two images per second feels “too slow.”

In a security-screening application, three images per second is approximately an order of magnitude faster than an expert can manually achieve. InnerEye says their system allows far fewer humans to handle far more data, with just two human experts redundantly overseeing 15 security scanners at once, supported by an AI image-recognition system that is being trained at the same time, using the output from the humans’ brains.

InnerEye is currently partnering with a handful of airports around the world on pilot projects. And it’s not the only company working to bring neurotech into the workplace.

How Emotiv’s brain-tracking technology works

When it comes to neural monitoring for productivity and well-being in the workplace, the San Francisco–based company Emotiv is leading the charge. Since its founding 11 years ago, Emotiv has released three models of lightweight brain-scanning headsets. Until now the company had mainly sold its hardware to neuroscientists, with a sideline business aimed at developers of brain-controlled apps or games. Emotiv started advertising its technology as an enterprise solution only this year, when it released its fourth model, the MN8 system, which tucks brain-scanning sensors into a pair of discreet Bluetooth earbuds.

Tan Le, Emotiv’s CEO and cofounder, sees neurotech as the next trend in wearables, a way for people to get objective “brain metrics” of mental states, enabling them to track and understand their cognitive and mental well-being. “I think it’s reasonable to imagine that five years from now this [brain tracking] will be quite ubiquitous,” she says. When a company uses the MN8 system, workers get insight into their individual levels of focus and stress, and managers get aggregated and anonymous data about their teams.

Emotiv launched its enterprise technology into a world that is fiercely debating the future of the workplace. Workers are feuding with their employers about return-to-office plans following the pandemic, and companies are increasingly using “ bossware” to keep tabs on employees—whether staffers or gig workers, working in the office or remotely. Le says Emotiv is aware of these trends and is carefully considering which companies to work with as it debuts its new gear. “The dystopian potential of this technology is not lost on us,” she says. “So we are very cognizant of choosing partners that want to introduce this technology in a responsible way—they have to have a genuine desire to help and empower employees,” she says.

Lee Daniels, a consultant who works for the global real estate services company JLL, has spoken with a lot of C-suite executives lately. “They’re worried,” says Daniels. “There aren’t as many people coming back to the office as originally anticipated—the hybrid model is here to stay, and it’s highly complex.” Executives come to Daniels asking how to manage a hybrid workforce. “This is where the neuroscience comes in,” he says.

Emotiv has partnered with JLL, which has begun to use the MN8 earbuds to help its clients collect “true scientific data,” Daniels says, about workers’ attention, distraction, and stress, and how those factors influence both productivity and well-being. Daniels says JLL is currently helping its clients run short-term experiments using the MN8 system to track workers’ responses to new collaboration tools and various work settings; for example, employers could compare the productivity of in-office and remote workers.

Emotiv CTO Geoff Mackellar believes the new MN8 system will succeed because of its convenient and comfortable form factor: The multipurpose earbuds also let the user listen to music and answer phone calls. The downside of earbuds is that they provide only two channels of brain data. When the company first considered this project, Mackellar says, his engineering team looked at the rich data set they’d collected from Emotiv’s other headsets over the past decade. The company boasts that academics have conducted more than 4,000 studies using Emotiv tech. From that trove of data—from headsets with 5, 14, or 32 channels—Emotiv isolated the data from the two channels the earbuds could pick up. “Obviously, there’s less information in the two sensors, but we were able to extract quite a lot of things that were very relevant,” Mackellar says.

Once the Emotiv engineers had a hardware prototype, they had volunteers wear the earbuds and a 14-channel headset at the same time. By recording data from the two systems in unison, the engineers trained a machine-learning algorithm to identify the signatures of attention and cognitive stress from the relatively sparse MN8 data. The brain signals associated with attention and stress have been well studied, Mackellar says, and are relatively easy to track. Although everyday activities such as talking and moving around also register on EEG, the Emotiv software filters out those artifacts.

The app that’s paired with the MN8 earbuds doesn’t display raw EEG data. Instead, it processes that data and shows workers two simple metrics relating to their individual performance. One squiggly line shows the rise and fall of workers’ attention to their tasks—the degree of focus and the dips that come when they switch tasks or get distracted—while another line represents their cognitive stress. Although short periods of stress can be motivating, too much for too long can erode productivity and well-being. The MN8 system will therefore sometimes suggest that the worker take a break. Workers can run their own experiments to see what kind of break activity best restores their mood and focus—maybe taking a walk, or getting a cup of coffee, or chatting with a colleague.

What neuroethicists think about neurotech in the workplace

While MN8 users can easily access data from their own brains, employers don’t see individual workers’ brain data. Instead, they receive aggregated data to get a sense of a team or department’s attention and stress levels. With that data, companies can see, for example, on which days and at which times of day their workers are most productive, or how a big announcement affects the overall level of worker stress.

Emotiv emphasizes the importance of anonymizing the data to protect individual privacy and prevent people from being promoted or fired based on their brain metrics. “The data belongs to you,” says Emotiv’s Le. “You have to explicitly allow a copy of it to be shared anonymously with your employer.” If a group is too small for real anonymity, Le says, the system will not share that data with employers. She also predicts that the device will be used only if workers opt in, perhaps as part of an employee wellness program that offers discounts on medical insurance in return for using the MN8 system regularly.

However, workers may still be worried that employers will somehow use the data against them. Karen Rommelfanger, founder of the Institute of Neuroethics, shares that concern. “I think there is significant interest from employers” in using such technologies, she says. “I don’t know if there’s significant interest from employees.”

Both she and Georgetown’s Giordano doubt that such tools will become commonplace anytime soon. “I think there will be pushback” from employees on issues such as privacy and worker rights, says Giordano. Even if the technology providers and the companies that deploy the technology take a responsible approach, he expects questions to be raised about who owns the brain data and how it’s used. “Perceived threats must be addressed early and explicitly,” he says.

Giordano says he expects workers in the United States and other western countries to object to routine brain scanning. In China, he says, workers have reportedly been more receptive to experiments with such technologies. He also believes that brain-monitoring devices will really take off first in industrial settings, where a momentary lack of attention can lead to accidents that injure workers and hurt a company’s bottom line. “It will probably work very well under some rubric of occupational safety,” Giordano says. It’s easy to imagine such devices being used by companies involved in trucking, construction, warehouse operations, and the like. Indeed, at least one such product, an EEG headband that measures fatigue, is already on the market for truck drivers and miners.

Giordano says that using brain-tracking devices for safety and wellness programs could be a slippery slope in any workplace setting. Even if a company focuses initially on workers’ well-being, it may soon find other uses for the metrics of productivity and performance that devices like the MN8 provide. “Metrics are meaningless unless those metrics are standardized, and then they very quickly become comparative,” he says.

Rommelfanger adds that no one can foresee how workplace neurotech will play out. “I think most companies creating neurotechnology aren’t prepared for the society that they’re creating,” she says. “They don’t know the possibilities yet.”

[end article.]

Ok what the fuck has gotten into the capitalist's brains this time?

The working class has been voicing its issues with its employers since the beginning of time. Hundreds and hundreds of studies show what needs to be changed. Shorter week and hours, more pay, less power dynamic, etc. Nothing is being changed regardless. There's no need to do fucking brain monitoring to figure out what the problem is. Are they really that ignorant or is it an act?

And there's no telling how long if possible it will take to fully decode people's thoughts. The scientists behind it imply they are quite close. If it happens then it will be literally 1984 but unironically. Employers and government would quickly jump on the train of creating thoughtcrimes exactly as Orwell envisioned it. Why wouldn't they?

Also, anonymize my ass. Make it FOSS. Software is always guilty until proven innocent. There's literally no way I can prove that you aren't sharing the data, and literally no way you can prove there will never be a data breach.

And these so-called "ethicists" just brush it off like

Both she and Georgetown’s Giordano doubt that such tools will become commonplace anytime soon. “I think there will be pushback” from employees on issues such as privacy and worker rights, says Giordano. Even if the technology providers and the companies that deploy the technology take a responsible approach, he expects questions to be raised about who owns the brain data and how it’s used. “Perceived threats must be addressed early and explicitly,” he says.

" 'Percieved threats must be addressed early and explicitly.' " So you're admitting that workers don't get to have a choice in the matter and that you intend to use force (Economic pressure is still force. If you can't find a job in the future that doesn't do this you are effectively forced. And the government could use this too.) to make us comply.

Everyone called George Orwell crazy. Everyone called Richard Stallman crazy. Everyone called Edward Snowden crazy. Yet their predictions continue to come true again and again. And no one bats an eye. Society had just blindly accepted the onset of mass surveillance. Everyone knows about it in dictatorships like China and North Korea but no one wants to talk about how rampant it is in other places where it's done more silently.

Some people say "I have nothing to fear because I have nothing to hide." Ok, so what happens when the government goes wack and decides to start rounding up groups of people? What happens if your race/ethnicity, religion, gender, sexuality, disabilities, etc falls into one of those categories? It happened in Germany and we are at risk of it happening in the U.S. and other places. (In Germany there wasn't surveillance tech yet so they just force searched your home instead. Same difference.) How do you know it will never happen? What do you do then? What. Do. You. Do. Then.

No one I have asked it has ever been able to answer this question beyond blind faith that it won't happen. The real answer is you're fucked. That's the answer.

[elsa16744]

How to Manage Risks in Investment Banking and Why Is It Important? 

Institutional investors and organizations wanting to acquire another business entity depend on investment banking services. Therefore, IB professionals must manage risks associated with the large transactions involved in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals. Likewise, their work concerning initial public offerings (IPOs) must overcome market uncertainties. This post will discuss how to manage risks in investment banking. 

What is Investment Banking (IB)? 

Investment banking is a category of financial services encompassing capital market insights, valuation, mergers, and acquisitions. Besides, issuing IPOs or securing significant debt financing becomes more manageable via investment banking services. 

An investment banker knows how to assess market conditions to predict if a company’s IPO will succeed. As a market maker, he must also prepare strategies to mitigate IPO under-subscription risks. Professional underwriting services offered by IBs make them attractive to institutional investors. 

High net-worth individuals (HNWI) have benefitted from IB support, like some private banking solutions though the scope is more extensive. Moreover, some IBs specialize in enabling municipal corporations and public-private partnerships (PPPs) to fund infrastructure development projects. 

What is Risk Management in Banking and Financial Investment? 

Risk management emphasizes protecting assets from loss by identifying and avoiding risky characteristics in an investment strategy or business merger. However, professionals who offer private banking solutions or collaborate with investment bankers understand the risk-reward correlation. 

You cannot erase all risks since most uncertainties emerge from external factors. Instead, institutions and HNWI employ investment banking services to minimize the losses. For example, holistic performance data allows more reliable stock screening. 

An enterprise can engage in accounting manipulation or unlawful business practices. So, investing in it increases legal and financial risks for investors. Also, an organization that acquires this firm will hurt its brand reputation, investor trust, governance, and consumer loyalty. Therefore, detailed investment research reports are integral to due diligence in portfolio risk management. 

What Are the Investment Banking Risks? 

1| Risks Arising from Market Dynamics 

Market risk or macro risk is inevitable. Investment banking risks comprise many market risks. Variations in investor sentiments, inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates increase the risk. So, reliable investment banking services predict these dynamics to manage macro risks efficiently. 

For example, equity risk affects stocks, reflecting supply-demand variations. If shares lose value fast, IB professionals and their clients must handle increased financial challenges. 

Interest rate risks involve governments, public-private entities, or global corporations issuing bonds. Besides, private banking solutions offer extensive access to debt capital markets (DCMs) susceptible to interest rate risks. 

Likewise, investment banking professionals must understand and manage currency risks. This requirement affects investors with global portfolio coverage. After all, shifts in currency exchange rates have ripple effects across various business and finance operations. 

2| Liquidity Risks in Investment Banking 

Liquidity risks imply you cannot sell your investment to gain a profit. Investors require a lot of formalities to withdraw funds if the need arises. Therefore, they settle for less money and sell the investment. However, the selling route is conditionally available because some assets or legal situations can restrict this option. 

3| Concentration Risks 

Concentration risks increase when an investor puts all the funds in one investment class. Investment banking services also implement diversification strategies to manage concentration risks. Similarly, private banking solutions assist HNWI in diversifying their investments. To overcome concentration risks, they want to distribute their investable corpus across different sectors and geographies. 

4| Reinvestment Risks 

When reinvesting, investors might lose capital resources and experience a low return on investment (ROI). This threat is one of the reinvestment risks in investment banking. For example, an investor might purchase a high ROI bond today. 

In the future, the interest rates can decrease. Therefore, the investor must reinvest the regular interest payments at lower returns. This risk also extends to bonds that expire. Reputable private banking solutions can evaluate such risks to help their clients. 

5| Credit Risk 

Credit risk refers to the inability of the borrower to meet the repayment obligations originating from a debt-driven financial relationship. Imagine an organization or government entity failing to fulfill the interest requirements associated with the bonds they had issued. So, the investors who bought these bonds must analyze credit risks. 

Many investment banking services help clients with credit research and risk assessment. A business can get a AAA credit rating when the credit risks are fewer. Corporate credit rating is the enterprise version of individuals’ credit scores. 

6| Inflation Risk 

Inflation risk means investors lose buying power because their investments’ ROIs fail to defeat the inflation rate. Remember, inflation makes it difficult to acquire the same goods and services that an individual, organization, or investor could have purchased a while back. If you have cash or debt investments like bonds, this financial threat significantly affects you. 

However, corporations can introduce price hikes to respond to high inflation rates. This situation adversely affects customers’ willingness to consume what the company offers. Yet, price hikes highlight how shares protect investors from inflationary risks in investment and banking. 

7| Lifespan Risks 

Humans live for a limited time. This fact proves the existence of lifespan risks, and private banking solutions recognize its implications. If an investor outlives his investments, he must identify new income streams. 

Consider the retired professionals. They are more likely to experience lifespan risks. These risks also apply to HNWIs and their family members. Therefore, multi-generational wealth management solutions in private banking are vital for these investor categories. 

8| Foreign Investment Risks and Nationalization 

Investors can experience financial problems when investing in overseas assets. Payment complications and complying with different accounting standards are some of these challenges. Besides, governments in certain countries have a track record of nationalizing private companies. 

How to Manage Risks in Investment Banking 

1| Portfolio Diversification 

Investment banking services guide enterprises in analyzing companies before business mergers. This analysis also determines whether an M&A deal or leveraged buyout contributes to diversification. It is portfolio diversification when investors allocate their financial resources across different assets and companies in distinct industries. 

Therefore, institutional investors, international organizations, and HNWIs can mitigate the concentration risks. If an asset’s ROI decreases, the final performance of your portfolio will remain safe from tremendous losses. 

For example, private banking solutions let HNWIs invest in different geographies. They also facilitate multi-industry stock screening and fund selection strategies. 

2| Correlation and Optimization 

If all the stocks and bonds move in one direction, the assets are linked or correlated. So, investors and fund managers deliberately choose asset classes that perform in different directions. i.e., some poor-performing assets can appreciate in a macroeconomic event disrupts the well-performing assets. 

You also want to target different markets to secure your investments from market risks. If one market exhibits significant volatility, investments concerning other markets will be relatively safer. 

3| Data-Driven Investment Strategies 

Predictive financial modeling will alert investors to investment banking risks. After all, this era has proved how artificial intelligence (AI) adds value to conventional investment research services. Integrating data and analytical insight extraction allows intuitional investors and HNWIs to make informed decisions on stock selection. 

Moreover, financial analytics offer cross-verification of valuation reports and legal compliance disclosures. These documents are essential to successful M&A negotiations. 

4| Policy Intelligence 

Regulatory bodies governing banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) companies revise laws. These policy and regulation revisions often change the risk dynamics of investment management. Some private banking solutions monitor these changes for their clients. 

Acquiring and processing data on government expectations in different nations helps manage foreign investment risks. Simultaneously, high-quality investment research reports can forecast market movements using policy intelligence.  

Conclusion 

Investment banking risks result from macro factors like economic crisis, inflation, and regulatory revisions. Likewise, incorrectly managed investor portfolios increase risk exposure. So, strategies like diversification or data-driven decisions let funds and HNWIs prepare for market volatility. 

SG Analytics, a leader in investment banking services, assists institutional investors and businesses across company screening, financial analysis, and M&A deal lifecycle. Contact us today for robust business intelligence and investment insights to optimize portfolios. 

[laloluna921]

The Interplay of Socioeconomic Status and Alcohol Consumption: Implications for Life Expectancy

I’ve chosen the NESARC dataset about life expectancy associated with alcohol consumption. This dataset is rich and provides a lot of interesting variables to explore.

This is a topic that has always intrigued me and I believe this dataset provides a great opportunity to explore it further.

CodeBook

Variable Name

Description

alcconsumption

2008 alcohol consumption per adult (age 15+), litres

lifeexpectancy

2011 life expectancy at birth (years)

Questions:

Is there a correlation between per capita income (income_per_person) and life expectancy (life_expectancy)?

How does alcohol consumption (alcohol_consumption) vary with per capita income (income_per_person)?

Is there a correlation between the level of education (education_level) and alcohol consumption (alcohol_consumption)?

How does alcohol consumption (alcohol_consumption) affect life expectancy (life_expectancy)?

Is there a difference in alcohol consumption (alcohol_consumption) and life expectancy (life_expectancy) between genders (gender)?

Variables:

Per capita income (income_per_person)

Life expectancy (life_expectancy)

Alcohol consumption (alcohol_consumption)

Level of education (education_level)

Gender (gender)

incomeperperson   

This is the Gross Domestic Product per capita in constant 2000 US$

New CodeBook

income_per_person

This variable represents the per capita income for each country. It’s a numerical variable measured in international dollars, fixed 2011 prices.

life_expectancy

This variable indicates the average number of years a newborn child would live if current mortality patterns were to stay the same throughout its life. It’s a numerical variable measured in years.

alcohol_consumption

This variable represents the recorded and estimated average alcohol consumption, adult (15+) per capita consumption in liters pure alcohol. It’s a numerical variable measured in liters.

education_level:

This variable indicates the average years of schooling for adults aged 25 and older. It’s a numerical variable measured in years.

References

Hawkins, B.R., & McCambridge, J. (2023). Association Between Daily Alcohol Intake and Risk of All-Cause Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-analyses. JAMA Network Open.

This study found that daily low or moderate alcohol intake was not significantly associated with all-cause mortality risk, while increased risk was evident at higher consumption levels, starting at lower levels for women than men.

Murakami, K., & Hashimoto, H. (2019). Associations of education and income with heavy drinking and problem drinking among men: evidence from a population-based study in Japan. BMC Public Health.

The study revealed that lower educational attainment was significantly associated with increased risks of both non-problematic heavy drinking and problem drinking. Lower income was significantly associated with a lower risk of non-problematic heavy drinking, but not of problem drinking.

Nooyens, A.C.J., Bueno-de-Mesquita, H.B., van Boxtel, M.P.J., van Gelder, B.M., Verhagen, H., & Verschuren, W.M.M. (2020). Alcohol consumption in later life and reaching longevity: the Netherlands Cohort Study. Age and Ageing.

The study found that in women, the total consumption of alcoholic beverages was inversely associated with the decline in global cognitive function over a 5-year period. Red wine consumption was inversely associated with the decline in global cognitive function as well as memory and flexibility.

Rigelsky, M., & Zelenka, V. (2021). Does Alcohol Consumption Affect Life Expectancy in OECD Countries. ResearchGate.

The research concluded that higher income was associated with greater longevity throughout the income distribution. The gap in life expectancy between the richest 1% and poorest 1% of individuals was 14.6 years for men and 10.1 years for women.

Chetty, R., Stepner, M., Abraham, S., Lin, S., Scuderi, B., Turner, N., Bergeron, A., & Cutler, D. (2016). The Association Between Income and Life Expectancy in the United States, 2001-2014. JAMA.

The study found that higher income was associated with greater longevity, and differences in life expectancy across income groups increased over time. Life expectancy for low-income individuals varied substantially across local areas

Given the variables selected from the Gapminder dataset life expectancy, alcohol consumption, and income per person.

Hypothesis

The socioeconomic status, characterized by factors such as income and education, along with lifestyle choices like alcohol consumption, significantly impacts an individual’s life expectancy and overall health. Specifically, higher income and education levels may be associated with lower risks of heavy and problematic drinking, which in turn could lead to increased longevity. However, the relationship between alcohol consumption and health outcomes might be complex and influenced by factors such as the type and amount of alcohol consumed, and the individual’s overall lifestyle and genetic predisposition.

[and-then-there-were-n0ne]

This piece titled “Throwaway Kids” reports researchers surveyed “nearly 6,000 inmates in 12 states — representing every region of the country — to determine how many had been in foster care and what effect it had on their lives. Of the inmates who took the survey, 1 in 4 said they were the product of foster care. Some spent the majority of their childhood in strangers’ homes, racking up more placements than birthdays.”

In the Los Angeles county foster care system (my beloved alma mater), only 64.5% of foster kids graduate from high school. Maybe not so surprising.

Here’s something more surprising. According to the same report from LA county, the overall high school graduation rate in LA is 86.6%.

And the graduation rate for students categorized as “socioeconomically disadvantaged” is also 86.6%. Poor kids graduate at the same rate as everyone else.

The gap between poor kids and foster kids exists nationwide, too.

72.4% of kids across the U.S. in the lowest socioeconomic quintile graduate from high school. In contrast, nationwide, only 58% of foster kids graduate from high school.

What about college? 11% of kids in the bottom socioeconomic quintile graduate from college. For foster kids: 3%.

Incarceration rates are similar. About 8% of males from families in the bottom socioeconomic quintile do time in prison or jail. For males who were in foster care: 60%

Consider that to become foster parents, people must meet a minimum economic threshold. They can’t be poor.

Which means kids in foster care are not in as materially impoverished an environment as kids in the bottom income quintile.

So what explains the gap in graduation and incarceration rates between foster kids and poor kids?

One reason worth highlighting comes from this widely-cited paper in Developmental Psychology titled, “Evolution, Stress, and Sensitive Periods: The Influence of Unpredictability in Early Versus Late Childhood on Sex and Risky Behavior.”

The researchers used a longitudinal data set. In the 1970s, women at a public health clinic agreed to respond to questions that tracked both themselves and their then unborn children.

Both the mothers and, later, their children, responded to questionnaires at multiple time points until the children reached early adulthood.

The researchers were interested in how 2 different environmental factors affected 5 key variables.

One environmental factor was the amount of environmental harshness children experienced before age 5.

Researchers measured environmental harshness by the mother’s socioeconomic status, occupational prestige, and household income. How materially comfortable was the kid?

The other environmental factor was the amount of environmental unpredictability children experienced before age 5.

The researchers measured environmental unpredictability by number of changes in residence (e.g., moving to a different house/apartment), changes in cohabitation status (e.g., whether and how often male romantic partners moved in or out of the house/apartment), and changes in employment status.

In short, how often the kid moved, how frequently the adults in the kid’s life appeared and disappeared, and how frequently his mom changed jobs. How chaotic was the kid’s life?

And the researchers wanted to know how these two factors influenced 5 outcome variables:

Age at first intercourse

Number of lifetime sexual partners at age 23

Criminal acts

Aggression (e.g., “I deliberately try to hurt others,” “I destroy things belonging to others”)

Delinquency (frequency of lying/cheating, breaking rules, setting fires, stealing, drug use)

Researchers found that childhood poverty (harshness) was not significantly associated with any of the 5 outcome variables.

In contrast, there was a significant correlation between childhood unpredictability ans 4 of the 5 outcome variables—number of sexual partners, aggressive behavior, delinquent behavior, and criminal behavior. For males, but not females, instability predicted having sex at an earlier age.

The correlation between unpredictability in childhood and criminal behavior in adulthood was particularly striking (r = .40, p < .01). This effect size is equivalent to the correlation between socioeconomic status and SAT scores.

The luxury belief class loves to talk about the effect of wealth on test scores. Few discuss the effect of instability in childhood giving rise to harmful behaviors in adulthood.

The researchers re-analyzed the data while controlling for harshness. The relationship between instability in childhood and harmful behaviors in adulthood remained significant.

They conclude their discussion:

“The findings revealed that the strongest predictor of both sexual and risky behavior at age 23 was exposure to an unpredictable environment during the first 5 years of life. Individuals exposed to more unpredictable, rapidly changing early environments displayed a faster life history strategy at age 23 as indicated by having more sexual partners, having sex at an earlier age (for males only), engaging in more aggression and delinquent behaviors, and being more likely to be associated with criminal activities/behavior. By contrast, exposure to either harsh environments or experiencing unpredictability later in childhood (ages 6–16) did not significantly predict these outcomes at age 23.”

Plainly, being poor doesn't have the same effect as living in chaos.

There are some people who will respond "Bruh, it's all in the genes."

Behavior is modifiable for just about everyone, regardless of their genetic propensities and endowments. Behavior responds to incentives and environmental inputs.

Suppose each of us has a different innate propensity to punch others. In this scenario, some researcher collects data on how many people each person punches per year.

In a completely free environment with no norms or consequences, I would punch 10 people a year. And in this free environment, you would punch 3 people a year.

A difference of 7 people. In this simple hypothetical example, I am "genetically" more prone than you to punch.

Now suppose we both exist in an environment with strong norms against punching. In this environment, people lose status for violence. And violent people experience swift and unfavorable consequences.

In this environment, I now punch only 8 people a year, and you now punch only 1. I am still punching 7 more people than you each year.

The gap is the same as it was before.

But—and this is crucial—we are punching fewer people than before. Fewer people overall are being punched.

The average number of punched victims was 6.5 a year in the free environment. And now it is 4.5 in the rigid environment.

Relative differences exist.

But so do absolute differences. Those matter too.

I am well aware of the behavior genetics research, twin studies, and so on indicating little effect of home environment on personality, propensity for crime, addiction, and so on. These studies are inapplicable for kids living in extreme dysfunction.

Behavior geneticists investigate the relative role of genetic and environmental variation within the sampled population.

Behavioral genetics studies report findings from within the environmental variation in their samples, not in all conceivable environments.

For example, there are many studies on identical twins separated at birth who are adopted by different families.

Researchers find little difference between these twins when they are adults. Their personalities, IQ, preferences, and so on are very similar.

But twins are usually adopted by intact middle-class families.

They are typically taken in by married parents with the means to jump through the hoops to qualify for adoption. Additionally, adoptive parents are the kind of people who would adopt, which introduces another layer of similarity.

I’ve yet to see any twin studies with one set of identical twins raised in extremely bad environments and another in good ones.

The psychologist and intelligence researcher Russell T. Warne has written:

“A problem with heritability study samples is that they tend to consist of more middle and upper-class individuals than a representative sample would have…results of behavioral genetics studies will indicate genes are important—if a person already lives in an industrialized nation in a home where basic needs are met...it is not clear how well these results apply to individuals in highly unfavorable environments.”

The "parents don't matter" idea from behavior genetics comes from an era where most children were raised in homes with two biological parents (range restriction). Families and values were pretty similar across the board. Even when data were collected from children of single parents, most of those children were raised in neighborhoods where most of the parents were married, and attended schools with classmates whose parents were mostly married. Genes will always play a large role in the trajectory of our lives, but as variation in family type expands, my strong suspicion is that the environment will account for more and more of the variance in outcomes between individuals.

In a chapter titled Genes and the Mind, the psychologist David Lykken states:

“If twins were separated as infants and placed, one with a middle-class Minnesota family and the other with an 18-year-old unmarried mother living on AFDC in the South Bronx, the twins will surely differ 30 years later.”

Yes, genes are responsible for human traits and behavior. But these traits are responsive to social norms and other environmental factors too.

Education and weight are both 70 percent heritable.

In the 1970s, 13 percent of Americans graduated from college. Today it’s 35 percent.

In the 1970s, about 13 percent of Americans were overweight. Today, it’s around 70 percent.

Did our genes make us smarter and fatter over the last 50 years?

No.

The environment (incentives, accessibility, social norms, etc.) made it easier to go to college. So more people went.

The environment (incentives, accessibility, social norms, etc.) made it easier to get fat. So more people did.

The heritability of divorce is around 40% percent. In the 1950s, 11 percent of children born to married parents saw their parents get divorced. By the 1970s, more than 50 percent of children born to married parents saw their parents get divorced.

Did genes change that much in 20 years?

No. It became easier to divorce. So more people did.

Crime skyrocketed in 2020. Did genes transform overnight?

No. Lawlessness became easier to get away with. So more people committed crimes.

Height is 90 percent heritable. But it is still malleable by the environment. Before Korea was divided, Northerners were taller than Southerners. Today, North Koreans are 6 inches shorter, on average, than South Koreans. Did their genes change? No. Their environments did.

Tobacco use is highly heritable (60-80%) but the percentage of Americans who smoke has dropped by half since 1982.

Strong norms against smoking contributed to people changing their behavior by smoking less.

Genes have something to do with behavior. But behavior can be unleashed or constrained depending on the norms of a society.

Some people interpret behavior genetics findings to mean environment is unimportant. I interpret them to mean certain aspects of environment matter even more. Norms and customs constrain differences between individuals. The absence of norms and guardrails magnifies them. [...]

Of my closest friends in high school, two went to prison and one was shot to death. These guys were never going to go to a fancy college. But they didn’t have to end up incarcerated or murdered at age fourteen. The truth is that most foster kids or poor kids could not get a Ph.D. in mathematics at MIT (though some could), regardless of how they are raised or how many resources are dedicated to them. But we could drastically reduce the number of kids who later land in prison, rehab, on the street, and so on. We might not be able to raise the ceiling. But we could raise the floor. That starts at home.

[bowtiepastabitch]

I hope this message finds you well. I’ve been following your insightful posts on Good Omens fanfic trends and am impressed by the depth of your analysis.

I am currently finalizing a legal paper on the importance of queer storytelling and transformative works, which is set to be published in my law school’s journal. Good Omens, especially the Aziraphale/Crowley dynamic, serves as a significant case study in my research. Your data could provide a crucial empirical foundation for my argument, demonstrating the tangible impact of media representation on fan creation.

Would you be willing to create a chart showing the publication trends of Aziraphale/Crowley fanfics since 2019? I am particularly interested in observing the uptick in fanfic creation post-Season 2, to contextualize its influence within the broader narrative of fan engagement and creative expression.

This data will play a vital role in underscoring my argument about the legal and cultural necessity of protecting and encouraging fan works. It will illustrate the direct correlation between media representation and fan activity, further emphasizing the significance of inclusive storytelling.

I would, of course, provide full credit to you for your contribution and can share the final paper with you upon publication, should you be interested.

Thank you for considering this request. I look forward to potentially collaborating with you to highlight the importance of fan works in academic and legal discourse.

Ahhhh yes that's amazing! I would absolutely love to be a part of that and to read your paper when it's published.

I'm gonna shoot you a dm so we can discuss further, that way I can give you the most specific and helpful information I can. Thank you for reaching out; I'm excited!