#Copper LME Price

[shreemetalprices12]

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) started off lower at $8,566.5 per tonne but gradually climbed to reach a session high of $8,710 per tonne. By the end of the day, the prices consolidated sideways at $8,707 per tonne, showing a 2.27% increase.

[chemanalystdata]

Copper Plate Prices Trend | Pricing | News | Database | Chart

 Copper plate prices are influenced by various factors, making it a significant focus for industries ranging from construction to electronics and beyond. The global demand for copper has consistently impacted copper plate pricing, with major fluctuations tied to market conditions, supply chain dynamics, and economic trends. The price of copper plates is fundamentally driven by supply and demand dynamics, raw material availability, energy costs, and production capacities at mining and smelting operations worldwide. Additionally, copper is a commodity traded on international exchanges, which further means that copper plate prices are highly sensitive to speculative activity, geopolitical developments, and shifts in currency exchange rates.

The supply side of the equation is equally important. Copper mining operations are predominantly located in a few key regions, with Chile and Peru leading global production. Political instability, labor strikes, or environmental regulations in these regions can directly influence the availability of copper ore, thus affecting the cost and availability of copper plates. Furthermore, the energy-intensive nature of copper production makes prices susceptible to changes in energy costs, including electricity and oil prices. Rising energy prices can drive up production costs, which in turn are passed on to the market through increased copper plate prices.

Get Real Time Prices for Copper plate: https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/copper-plate-1356

Technological advancements and innovations within industries that rely heavily on copper also affect prices. The increasing emphasis on electrification, renewable energy sources, and electric vehicles (EVs) has created significant demand for copper products, including copper plates. As these sectors continue to grow and scale, the demand pressure has potential to keep prices elevated, especially when combined with supply constraints. The push for greener technologies, including wind and solar energy, further drives demand for copper due to its excellent conductivity and thermal properties, making copper plates a key component in many applications.

Additionally, copper plate prices are impacted by international trade policies and tariffs. The imposition of duties or trade barriers on copper exports and imports can lead to price shifts and market volatility. For example, trade disputes between major economies or changes in regulations related to metal recycling can create supply bottlenecks or surpluses, directly influencing market pricing. Furthermore, fluctuations in currency exchange rates play a crucial role in determining prices, as copper is globally traded in US dollars. A strengthening dollar, for instance, can make copper more expensive for buyers using other currencies, reducing demand and potentially lowering prices, while a weakening dollar may increase demand and push prices higher.

Recycling is another significant factor that shapes copper plate prices. Recycled copper forms a substantial share of the overall market supply. When the availability of recycled copper increases, it can provide relief to supply constraints and potentially lower prices. However, disruptions in the recycling chain, changes in regulation, or shifts in the quality of recyclable material can limit the effectiveness of recycling in stabilizing prices. Moreover, demand trends and inventory levels at metal exchanges such as the London Metal Exchange (LME) also influence short-term and long-term copper plate prices. Higher inventories may indicate an oversupply, often leading to price drops, while lower inventories suggest potential supply constraints and drive prices upward.

Macroeconomic factors, including inflation and interest rates, can also influence copper plate prices. Inflationary pressures can lead to higher production costs across the board, including the cost of mining and refining copper. Additionally, interest rates play a role in determining borrowing costs for industries that rely on copper, which in turn can affect overall demand. Higher interest rates can dampen investment in new projects, reducing demand for copper and other industrial materials, while lower rates may spur growth and consumption.

The environmental considerations and policies regarding mining operations have become more prominent in recent years and also influence copper plate pricing. Stringent environmental regulations can lead to increased costs for mining operations, resulting in a trickle-down effect on the price of copper products. At the same time, companies and countries making a strong push toward sustainable and ethical sourcing may opt to pay a premium for copper that meets certain environmental standards, thereby contributing to price fluctuations.

Investors and market analysts closely watch trends in copper plate prices as a barometer of economic health, given copper's extensive use across numerous industries. Price trends can indicate changes in global industrial activity, infrastructure spending, and shifts toward sustainable and green technologies. Tracking copper plate prices also offers insight into global supply chain health, especially for economies heavily reliant on construction and manufacturing output. The outlook for copper plate prices continues to depend on a complex interplay of these factors, with changes occurring rapidly in response to evolving market conditions, making continuous monitoring crucial for industry stakeholders.

Welcome to ChemAnalyst App: https://www.chemanalyst.com/ChemAnalyst/ChemAnalystApp

Contact Us:

ChemAnalyst

GmbH - S-01, 2.floor, Subbelrather Straße,

15a Cologne, 50823, Germany

Call: +49-221-6505-8833

Email: sales@chemanalyst.com

Website: https://www.chemanalyst.com

[starseedfxofficial]

Oil Surges Amid No Ceasefire, Biden Plans Nuclear Expansion Brent Oil Bounces Back Amid Regional Tensions, but What Lies Beneath? Is Crude Oil Looking Like the Shoes You Ordered Online? You know, those shoes you ordered in your regular size only to realize they're either squeezing your toes or slipping off like a toddler in oversized boots? That’s what crude oil’s current rally feels like—uncertain and possibly deceptive. After Israel’s Defense Minister Katz firmly dismissed the possibility of a ceasefire with Hezbollah, oil prices showed an upward drift. Brent is hovering towards the top of its range at USD 71.55-72.36/bbl, but don't be fooled, traders. Market moves like this often contain more mystery than clarity. What's the Catalyst Here? Let’s break it down without the hype. While tensions escalating in the Middle East have injected a bullish undertone into Brent crude, there’s a hidden layer at play—market sentiment is often dictated by emotion, and boy, emotions are running high. This rally isn’t exactly a sign that the fundamentals are favoring oil prices in the long run. Traders are reacting, not strategizing. So, what should you do? Stay vigilant and treat this as the kind of hype move that could swing back when the market catches its breath. Gold - Not Exactly Your Comforting Blanket Right Now Speaking of things that aren’t exactly fitting well—gold, the so-called “safe haven”, isn’t giving us much comfort right now. Spot gold dipped below USD 2,600/oz, chilling near the bottom end of its parameter at USD 2,590.89-2,627.23/oz. It’s that uncomfortable drop you feel after realizing that the Dollar’s strength has continued, largely due to what some call the “Trump trade” — a phenomenon that’s been giving goldbugs something of a headache. What’s the Real Magic Here? But here’s where the real magic happens: While precious metals are sliding, this could be the perfect setup for contrarian traders. Think about it—when everyone else is panic selling, that’s often when you find the hidden gem opportunities. Start looking for signs of consolidation or divergence to know when the tide might be shifting. The thing about gold is it often seems to lose its luster just before it makes a surprising comeback. Base Metals Take a Dive – It’s Not All Doom and Gloom If you’re thinking about base metals, copper just gave us a big sigh of disappointment. Three-month LME copper slipped below USD 9,200/t. This was largely due to letdowns stemming from the NPC Standing Committee meeting—investors were expecting some magic tricks on fiscal stimulus, but they got a rabbit that’s barely hopping. But let’s think beyond the noise for a minute: whenever markets get disappointed, they tend to overreact. Are we on the brink of an opportunity to scoop up copper positions before a potential bounce? The firmer Dollar is keeping copper down, but watch the upcoming data. A change in market perception could be just around the corner. The Nuclear Dream – Biden Aims for a Triple Play Now, if you thought today’s trading was dull, here’s something that might just change the game. According to Bloomberg, the Biden administration is drafting plans for the US to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050. What does this mean for us traders? Diversification. A strategy to remember when the lights go out in the conventional power sector—consider positioning in uranium or renewable energies that could benefit from policy shifts. The nuclear dream may still be decades away, but early movers often get the best seats at the table. So, is it time to start monitoring those uranium mining stocks? OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – The Waiting Game Lastly, OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report is due today at 11:40 GMT. It’s almost like waiting for a magician to pull a trick you’ve seen before—are we going to hear about more production cuts, or is it the same old story about global demand "uncertainties"? Either way, you’re going to want to be nimble today. Have your charts open and watch the reaction at those key levels—you never know when the market might make a move that you could capitalize on. Elite Tactics Takeaway: The Key Lessons Here - Don’t get carried away by short-term news hype—markets love to overreact. Brent’s current move upwards could shift quickly, and this isn’t necessarily a buy signal just yet. - Gold slipping might just be setting up for a contrarian opportunity. Watch for consolidation signals and get ready to pounce. - Disappointment in copper after the NPC meeting may have created an opportunity. Stay sharp for signs of a bounce. - Biden’s nuclear plans hint at future diversification opportunities. It’s all about being an early mover. - OPEC’s report today might be more of the same, but volatility creates trading chances—stay ready. Remember, traders: in a world full of hype, always look for the underlying trends that other traders are missing. Keep your head cool, your strategies sharp, and your humor warmer than that cup of coffee sitting next to you. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated   Read the full article

[cost-masters]

Copper's Downward Spiral: Will China's Economic Troubles Continue?

Copper prices have experienced a significant drop, reaching their lowest levels in more than two weeks. The decline is primarily attributed to weak economic data from China, particularly in the manufacturing and property sectors. This has raised concerns about reduced demand for the red metal.

MCX Copper prices have fallen by 0.2% to ₹783.80 per kg, hitting a low of ₹780.90 during the session. Similarly, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has dropped by 2%, reaching its weakest point since August 15. US Comex copper futures have also declined by 2.9%.

The weakening Chinese economy, coupled with the strengthening US dollar and increased copper inventories, has created a downward pressure on copper prices. The red metal is currently trading below its 200-day moving average, indicating further downside risk.

Goldman Sachs has recently cut its 2025 copper price forecast, citing concerns about China's economic challenges. However, analysts remain optimistic about the potential for a rebound in copper prices.

Stimulus measures from China and interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve could provide some support to the copper market. Additionally, the seasonal factors of September, October, and November are generally favorable for copper prices.

Despite the current downturn, copper prices are expected to find support at certain levels. Analysts predict that LME copper prices may find support at $8,700, while resistance is placed at $9,300. For MCX copper, support levels are estimated near ₹768-770, with potential upside to ₹828-830 if prices break above ₹812.

[thoughtlessarse]

The UK and the US want to "prevent the Kremlin funnelling more cash into its war machine". At one stage, the price of aluminium leapt more than 9%. Aluminium prices rocketed to a record level following the UK and the US's decision to ban the trade of Russian metals to "prevent the Kremlin funnelling more cash into its war machine". At one stage in early morning trading, aluminium was up more than 9% on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the biggest rise seen since trading started in 1987. Nickel prices also rose, at one stage gaining more than 8%. Both metal prices later fell back. Hopes ban will tighten Russia's purse for war financing The UK and US took the decision at the weekend to put sanctions in place against Russia on new production of aluminium, copper and nickel. Britain's Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the ban would: "Prevent the Kremlin funnelling more cash into its war machine". Russia's metal production accounts globally for some 5% of aluminium supplies, 6% of nickel and 4% of copper. Aluminium is used widely in manufacturing, being used across the board for products including body work on cars and aeroplanes, cans, foils and TVs.

continue reading

Russia only accounts for 5% of aluminium supplies. Why did the price rise so much? China will get aluminium and other metals on the cheap and will not need so much from other sources.

Russia and China trade new copper disguised as scrap to skirt taxes, sanctions.

[head-post]

Aluminium prices skyrocketed after UK and US banned Russian metals trade

Prices of aluminium soared to a record high of over 9% following the decision by the UK and the US to ban trade in Russian metals, Euronews reported.

In morning trading, the price of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME), was up more than 9%, the biggest increase since trading began in 1987. Nickel prices also rose, adding over 8% at one stage.

The UK and the US decided over the weekend to impose sanctions on Russia over new aluminium, copper and nickel production in order o affect Russia’s economy. UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt stated that the ban would “prevent the Kremlin funnelling more cash into its war machine.”

Russian metal production accounts for about 5% of global aluminium supply, 6% of nickel and 4% of copper.

A prolonged rise in metal costs could drive up prices across the economy and potentially create inflation problems. However, Goldman Sachs analysts believe the ban is unlikely to jeopardise supplies.

Russian producers can continue to sell metal to non UK/US markets – in this respect there is no immediate tightening implication or trade flow dislocation to Western markets from current structure.

Read more HERE

[ramtracking]

Will China's Economic Slowdown Stall the Aluminum Price Rally [ Yunnan ]

Will China’s Economic Slowdown Stall the Aluminum Price Rally [News Summary] Aluminum prices briefly rose in March, potentially influenced by a copper price rally. Slowed aluminum production in China due to dry season… Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.4% at $2318.5 a metric ton as at 1207 GMT, after touching $2323,… Aluminium prices edged up by 0.36% yesterday,…

[cavenewstimes]

Copper prices dip on stronger dollar and LME stockpile increase

Copper prices dip on stronger dollar and LME stockpile increase By Investing.com Breaking News More Sign In/Free Sign Up 0 ‘; EditorPollock MondalCommodities Published Dec 04, 2023 08:15AM ET © Reuters Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced a decline today, with a 1.3% drop to $8,500 per metric ton. This downturn is attributed to the recent strength of the US dollar…

[chemanalystdata]

Monel Prices Trend | Pricing | Database | Index | News | Chart

North America

In Q1 2024, Monel pricing dynamics in North America were analyzed beyond the usual top influences. The USA significantly impacted pricing trends, with notable fluctuations occurring in this region. Monel prices exhibited a mixed trend during the quarter, influenced by a balance between decreasing inventories and modest sectoral growth.

Supply remained stable, with no plant shutdowns reported. However, declining steel import permits and reduced steel inventories affected Monel's overall supply dynamics. Demand saw a moderate increase, particularly from the automotive and infrastructure sectors. US government initiatives to reduce pollution and promote electric vehicles led to higher Monel demand in the steel market.

Despite these trends, uncertainties and limited visibility led to buyer reluctance in making purchases. Year-over-year, Monel prices in Q1 2024 showed a slight increase compared to the same quarter last year and were also higher than in Q4 2023. Monel pricing dynamics in North America are influenced by various factors, including supply and demand dynamics, import effects, global market trends, and macroeconomic uncertainties.

Get Real Time Prices for Monel : https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/monel-1364

Asia-Pacific

In Q1 2024, Monel pricing dynamics in the APAC region exhibited nuanced trends influenced by multiple factors beyond the conventional top influences. While the overall market situation remained stable, Japan experienced significant price fluctuations. Supply shortages in Japan resulted from automotive manufacturers' production suspensions, impacting steel output, a crucial component of Monel alloy. Labor shortages at Nippon Steel further strained the industry.

On the demand side, Japan saw a surge in Monel demand due to a collaboration between Kobe Steel and China Baowu Steel Group to produce lightweight aluminum panels for the growing electric vehicle industry. This joint venture prioritized Monel as a crucial material within the automotive industry, creating significant growth opportunities for manufacturers and suppliers specializing in nickel-copper alloys. Despite supply chain challenges, no plant shutdowns were reported during the quarter.

Europe

In Q1 2024, Monel pricing dynamics in Europe were influenced by factors beyond the usual top three. Germany experienced an overall increase in Monel prices. A spike in nickel prices in February had a substantial impact on the Monel supply chain, with the European Commodity Exchange (LME) seeing a 3.5% increase and the Asian SHFE seeing a 3.1% increase. Fluctuating mill outputs and rising domestic demand reduced Monel availability, attributed to new US sanctions against Russia. The consequent rise in nickel and freight costs hampered Monel production, causing a spike in prices on the German spot market.

Get Real Time Prices for Monel : https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/monel-1364

Contact Us:

ChemAnalyst

GmbH - S-01, 2.floor, Subbelrather Straße,

15a Cologne, 50823, Germany

Call: +49-221-6505-8833

Email: sales@chemanalyst.com

Website: https://www.chemanalyst.com

[starseedfxofficial]

Trump's Win Shakes Up Oil and Metals: What Traders Need to Know to Stay Ahead Trump's Win Shakes Up Oil and Metals: What Traders Need to Know to Stay Ahead Ever have that one friend who throws a wrench into perfectly organized plans just for the fun of it? Well, that friend is back, but this time he’s not just crashing your party, he’s set on re-writing the entire script of global markets. You guessed it, Donald Trump. As election results pour in, markets are in a frenzy, giving us yet another episode of “Trump Changes Everything”—and this one's a doozy. Brent crude took a nose-dive to USD 74.40/bbl as a stronger Dollar piled on the pressure. But let’s not ignore the underlying genius here—Trump's love for oil production could send US supply up. For those who know the secret handshake, there’s a trick here: ramping US production means increased supply and lower prices. Now might be a good time to practice the art of hedging those bets—just don’t tell the Saudis I said that. The Ninja Strategy That No One's Talking About Meanwhile, gold has decided to play it cool—by cooling off from USD 2,749.78/oz down to USD 2,701.42/oz. What’s behind it? The same greenback that’s keeping Brent down, my friends. With “Trump Trade 2.0,” the Dollar is flexing its muscles, reminding us all that it’s still the boss. And here’s the twist: savvy traders are viewing this as an opportunity. Ever heard of the “Trump Correction?” That’s right, folks are buying gold dips with one foot in the fiscal stimulus boat and the other in safe-haven territory—a spread play that could be a game changer. Just remember, it’s about staying nimble. Copper Conundrums & The Secret Weapon Now let’s talk copper—the “Doctor of Economics” seems to be self-medicating with some hefty losses. Trade wars under Trump 2.0 loom large, and 3M LME copper dances nervously around the USD 9,513.00-9,708.00 range. But guess what? The pros are eyeing the NPC Standing Committee's upcoming fiscal stimulus as the magic potion. Here’s a little-known secret: watch what China does, not just what it says. The fiscal policy maneuvers could make copper prices do a quick U-turn, and if you’re sharp, you’ll want to ride that wave before the masses catch on. Storms Brewing—Literally & Figuratively And just as Rafael graduated into hurricane status—congrats, Rafael!—we have China stepping up its lithium, cobalt, and nickel exploration efforts. Some analysts are calling it a defensive play for national resource security, but here’s the underground take: China is playing the long game. Think of it as a strategic move in the next iteration of the “Rare Metal Wars”—because, believe me, this will get Netflix-documentary-worthy someday. Traders who understand that Lithium isn’t just a Nirvana song might just find themselves ahead of the pack when EV markets go bananas again. PMIs and Precarious Predictions Meanwhile, European PMI figures are out—Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the EU gave us a mixed bag of surprises, and the UK’s Construction PMI missed expectations at 54.3 (come on, just a little more mortar and bricks, lads!). But all eyes are on the BoE, with some economists predicting rate cuts coming soon. Here’s an insight for those truly in-the-know: watch the divergence. As the Bank of England trims rates, those who bet on gilts might be in for a nice ride, while the short-sellers prepare their ‘I-told-you-so’ dance. BoE, Don’t Go Breaking My Rates The big debate is if BoE will hit us with the rate cut this week—NIESR forecasts suggest it’s coming. Traders, here’s your play: once rate cuts start, positioning on currency pairs like GBP/USD becomes a high-stakes game of ‘chicken.’ If you’re holding GBP, you might want to think about some downside protection, while keeping an eye out for a potential bounce when the dust settles. Imagine catching the bottom here—that’s not just smart, that’s legendary. A Call to Action for Those Ready to Capitalize So, we have everything from oil turbulence to precious metal twists, hurricane upgrades, and the most unpredictable PMI shuffle ever. If you’re ready to apply these insights and strategies, join us over at StarseedFX. This is where the elite minds of Forex gather—where we don’t just report the news, we decode the secret language of the market. Are you going to just sit back and watch the show? Or will you take the insider’s seat, know the moves before they happen, and turn the tables on market trends? We’ve got the tools, the community, and the insights you need. Dive into exclusive resources, join live discussions, and master those ninja tactics that set the pros apart from the rest. The game is on—what are you waiting for? - Latest Economic Indicators and Forex News: Stay informed on market movements and groundbreaking concepts with exclusive, real-time updates. - Forex Education: Expand your knowledge with in-depth resources, advanced methodologies, and little-known strategies. - Community Membership: Join the StarseedFX community for expert analysis, daily alerts, live trading insights, insider tips, and elite tactics. - Free Trading Plan: Set goals, manage risks, and track progress with our detailed trading plan. Discover rare strategic advantages. - Free Trading Journal: Enhance performance and refine strategies with real metrics using advanced methods for progress tracking. - Smart Trading Tool: Optimize your trading with automated lot size calculations, insights, and order management. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated   Read the full article

[shreemetalprices12]

LME Copper 3 month prices fell 0.46 percent to 8,280.50 dollar/mt today.

[scrapmonsterindia]

Copper prices slip as China's industrial profits slump

Reuters - Copper prices drifted lower on Wednesday as a double-digit decline in China's industrial profit in the first five months weighed on sentiment, though losses were limited by tight global inventories and demand hopes.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 dipped 0.3% to $8,338.50 per metric ton by 0411 GMT, while the most-traded July copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange SCFcv1 was down 0.6% at 68,020 yuan ($9,412.19) per ton.

Profits at China's industrial firms shrank by 18.8% year-on-year in the first five months of 2023, official data showed, as companies wrestled with margin squeezes from softening demand amid a stumbling post-COVID economic recovery.

But stocks of the metal dropped recently, despite the tepid demand in a traditional weak demand season, said analysts at Guangda Futures, anticipating a likely price rebound.

Global exchange copper stocks sank to 15-year lows, stoking concerns about supply especially if demand in top buyer China starts to pick up following the rollout of further stimulus.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on Tuesday the country will take steps to boost demand and accelerate green transition.

Chilean state-run miner Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, is still evaluating the hit to operations from weather-related stoppages in the country's central-south region, the company told Reuters on Tuesday.

The disruption has yet had any impact on Chinese spot prices, with copper concentrate treatment charges staying at a more than four year high at $89.50 a ton since mid-June. AM-CN-CUCONC

LME aluminium CMAL3 eased 0.6% to $2,181 a metric ton, tin CMSN3 slid 0.6% to $26,125, zinc CMZN3 shed 1% to $2,362, lead CMPB3 slipped 0.4% to $2,088.50, and nickel CMNI3 declined 0.9% to $20,600.

SHFE aluminium SAFcv1 climbed 0.5% to 18,265 yuan a metric ton, zinc SZNcv1 moved down 0.4% to 20,035 yuan, tin SSNcv1 rose 1.3% to 213,760 yuan, while lead SPBcv1 shed 0.3% to 15,455 yuan, and nickel SNIcv1 dipped 0.3% to 161,040 yuan.

[chemanalysta]

Copper Wire Price Trend and Forecast

Copper Wire Price witnessed an unprecedented surge in the third quarter of 2022 as the inquiries were stronger than expected from the end-users in the US market. According to market participants, the US rate hike could boost the dollar, but it retreated, making dollar-denominated metals cheaper for holders of other currencies, potentially increasing demand. Copper stocks in LME registered warehouses also supported prices and had canceled warrants (metal earmarked for delivery), which have been at 28% versus 18% at the start of August. Copper Wire prices rose due to the ripple effect of limited availability of raw material Copper Ingot in the face of falling dollar rates and recessionary fears.

[marketinvestor-mi]

COPPER MCX : Remember 665 - 655 are crucial support

COPPER MCX : Remember 665 – 655 are crucial support

COPPER MCX TIPS TODAY : Remember 665 – 655 are crucial support. Break and close below 655 will take at 628–615 !! Hurdle at 695…if crosses and stays above target 705-708.50 on will sell slowly…..will update u !!!

[billehrman]

Opposing View

Opposing View

Markets reacted violently last week after many Fed members moved their dot plots forward a few months regarding tapering and the eventual lift-off of the Federal funds rate. Interestingly, their forecasts now coincide with our own. We still expect the Fed to talk about tapering in the fall, begin the actual tapering next year, conclude it by year-end 2022, and start hiking rates by mid-2023. What is wrong with that?  

Who did not expect the Fed to begin to talk about tapering at this meeting?  The economy is strengthening, inflation is accelerating due to shortages and supply issues as production has not caught up with demand.  We agree with the Fed that over half of the increase is transitory, but it may take a year for these problems to abate so inflation will run elevated into 2022, but the rate of change will fall as the year progresses. The Fed’s message may have some unintended consequences: Biden’s $6 trillion infrastructure bill may be considered excessive and inflationary, and corporate executives may temper spending plans with the prospect of the Fed shifting policy sooner than expected. We do not believe that the Fed wants to slow the recovery as it wants employment to return to pre-pandemic levels with inflation hanging around 2%. They want corporations to expand much-needed capacity. The Fed did wish to regain the narrative around inflation, which was accomplished with this meeting and Powell’s follow-up conference call.

We believe that the Fed’s view on inflation will appear correct as the year progresses as supply issues ebb and year-over-year comparisons improve. In addition, the last thing that the Fed wants is to slow the economy and temper capital spending as it is woefully needed after underspending for over three years now. One by-product of the Fed’s new dot plot was a big move up in the dollar, contributing to the decline in commodity prices and interest rates. Industrial commodity prices are also under pressure by China’s decision to cut purchases and release reserves despite rising consumption. This strategy can only last so long and is bound to boomer rang on them as global economies begin to expand—their consumption of industrial commodities increases when LME inventories are at multi-year lows. We continue to favor copper as the shift to EV and going green will boost demand substantially while supply will stay constrained for at least five years. Spending in the U.S alone could exceed $330 billion over the next five years to support these endeavors. You need $6.50/pound for copper today to even consider a new grassroots project vs. $4.20/pound.

We have discussed for weeks now the countertrend moves from value/economically sensitive stocks to back to growth stocks. This shift accelerated last week after the Fed meeting. While this move may last a bit longer, we remain confident that the play over the next two years is investing in the economically sensitive areas where we expect companies to report surprisingly strong earnings, margins, cash flow, dividends, buybacks, and ROIC. In addition, no one seems to be factored into the equation any longer an infrastructure bill which we see closer to $1.2 trillion without any corporate tax increases this year. We did, however, increase our exposure to technology as we see interest rates contained longer due to the Fed actions last week.

We agree with David Tepper, who sees an upmarket ahead, and Paul Tudor Jones, who believes that commodity prices will increase over the next several years. By the way, Goldman Sachs is firmly in the bullish copper camp, too.

Let’s review what is happening regarding the coronavirus, monetary and fiscal policy, and recent data points.

Vaccinations globally are accelerating; roughly 35.7 million doses are being given per day. More than 2.47 billion doses have been administered across 180 countries, with over 313 million doses given so far in the U.S. at an average rate of 1.17 million doses per day. We remain confident that we will have herd immunity here before the end of the summer, before mid-fall in the Eurozone, and by mid-2022 elsewhere. There will be billion of doses available next year if we need booster shots, much like we get annual flu shots.

Fed Reserve officials brought forward their intent to taper bond purchases and eventually begin to hike rates in around six months, responding to the more substantial than anticipated increase in recent economic activity and inflation data. In updated projections which were released on Wednesday, 13 of the 18 officials indicated they expect to lift short-term rates by the end of 2023, up from seven officials scheduled in March. It is equally clear that the Fed wants to keep the economy humming, jobs to increase above pre-pandemic levels, and companies ramp up their capital spending to alleviate shortages and shorten the supply lines. While the Fed made a somewhat more hawkish stance this past week, the policy will remain overly accommodative for at least two more years, which is what counts.

While the President was abroad last week, a group of 11 moderate Democrats and Republicans brought forth a $974 infrastructure bill over five years without any corporate tax increases. If you include initial funding, the total package would be close to $1.2 trillion. We believe that a bill of this size focused entirely on traditional infrastructure is highly passable, as concerns rise about inflation and too much stimulus already in the system. We continue to believe that Democrats are worried about appearing too liberal as they run for office next year. That is good news.

Economic data both here and abroad has continued to improve as we get our arms around the coronavirus. Look at all the leading indicators hitting new highs, as is the production with inventory data hitting new lows. We must have listened to at least ten conference calls last week with the same message: we are sold out into next year; we will not be able to start rebuilding inventories till the end of 2022, and our margins/cash flow have never been more robust. And all of this is at the beginning of a global economic recovery so expect business conditions to continue to improve as we move forward.  Clearly, producer prices are rising as shortages and supply issues persist. Still, all of this will moderate as we move through 2021 and 2022, except in industrial commodities, where demand will outstrip supply for many years. We are less worried about the CPI as we see a surge in productivity offsetting most of the wage gains, which is, after all, 66% of the CPI.

Investment Conclusions

We are not surprised that the Fed finally began to talk about tapering as the economy and inflation are stronger than initially projected. Still, it is a mistake to think that the Fed will act precipitously and end the economic expansion. Their actions may extend the growth. Inflation is spiking, but you only reopen once, and we expect shortages and supply-side issues to ebb over time, so don’t overreact to the daily noise.

Since we are more confident about interest rates staying somewhat contained, we added to technology last week. At the same time, we have not abandoned our view that you need to focus on the production side of the economy as we have spent on capital formation for at least four years, which will lead to above-average capital spending over the next several years.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect, and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset mix with risk controls; turn off cable new; do independent research and…

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prosperite LLC

Paixetprosperite1@gmail.com

917-951-4139

[winlandmetalnews]

China Copper Weekly Review: Copper prices fall from a high level this week (Week 9)

Supply in Chile and Peru will resume, and the tension will be eased. The actual start of consumption in the current market has been suppressed. No obvious replenishment behavior has been seen. The continuous rise of the US dollar index and US bond yields constituted pressure, and the copper price fell from a high level this week .

1. The trend of domestic spot copper prices this week

In the week of March 5, the domestic spot copper price dropped from a high level. The average price of 1# copper was reported at 66672 yuan/ton, with an average daily drop of 740 yuan/ton, and a weekly drop of 5.40%; the average price of the previous week was reported at 68280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1608 yuan/ton compared with last week, and a month-on-month drop of 2.36% .

Chile's copper production in January fell by 0.7% year-on-year. Chile's national copper company Codelco's copper production surged, but the world's largest copper mine Escondida's copper production fell; Peru's metal mining industry fell by 7.12% in January, of which copper fell by 7.6%. Chilean ports have returned to normal and the state of emergency in Peru has been lifted. Analysts expect a large number of ships from Chile and Peru to arrive at Chinese ports starting in March, and the tight supply situation will be eased.

Previously, prices rose too fast, and rising production costs inhibited the start of actual consumption. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's inventory continues to accumulate, and there is still greater pressure to destock. Recently, due to the increase in the price of raw materials, some downstream companies feared the high to reduce the operating rate. There has not been any obvious replenishment behavior, and the prices of various home appliances such as air conditioners have increased. The agency said that some of the fundamental factors supporting industrial metals began to fade, and the macro atmosphere disturbed the market, and copper prices fell from their highs this week.

2. One-week trend of copper futures prices

Data show that this week the center of gravity of Lun Copper has moved down. The average price of LME copper in the first four trading days was US$9003.5/ton, an average daily drop of US$102.75/ton; the average price last week was US$9243.4/ton, a month-on-month drop of 2.60%.

China's manufacturing industry has remained above the line of prosperity and decline for 12 consecutive months, but its activity has declined, and the pace of expansion of production and demand has slowed. Manufacturing activities in Europe and the United States have also maintained an expansion trend. The good manufacturing conditions have eased the economic impact of the blockade measures. The global vaccine is accelerating, and economic recovery is expected to drive demand recovery. However, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields have continued to rise recently, and the Fed has not given a "rescue" signal, which has put pressure on the commodity market.

The trend of Shanghai copper was weak this week. The average weekly settlement price of the current month contract was 66710 yuan/ton, an average daily drop of 668 yuan/ton; the average price of the previous week was reported at 67864 yuan/ton, down 1.70% from the previous week. Copper inventories in Shanghai continued to climb this week, increasing by 15067 tons to 163,025 tons, an increase of 10.18. The cumulative increase in the past five weeks reached 144.91%.

3. Lun Copper Week Inventory Situation

Lun's copper stocks continued to rise this week, with a cumulative increase of 2,800 metric tons to 79,025 metric tons, a cumulative increase of 3.67%.

Fourth, hot finance at home and abroad

China:

1. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI in February was 50.6%, which was higher than the critical point, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above the prosperity and decline line for 12 consecutive months. my country's economy as a whole continued to expand.

2. The economic recovery in 2020 will be better than expected, and the annual GDP will grow by 2.3%. The government work report stated that the main expected target for development in 2021 is to increase GDP by more than 6%.

International aspect:

1. The final value of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI in February was announced at 57.9, a new high since February 2018. The previous value was 57.7 and the expected value was 57.7. The continued expansion of manufacturing in the Eurozone is clearly helping to offset the weakness in many consumer-facing industries.

2. The US Manufacturing ISM Purchasing Managers Index in February increased to 60.8 month-on-month, the highest in three years since February 2018, with an expected value of 58.6 and a previous value of 58.7. It has been expanding for 9 consecutive months, and the price index hit the highest since July 2008.

Five, copper market news of the week

1. Rio Tinto and Mongolia reached a new agreement to expand the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in the Gobi Desert. Underground expansion is its most important growth project. After completion, the mine will produce 480,000 tons of copper per year from 2028 to 2036.

2. An executive of Southern Copper in Peru revealed that the company is advancing the development of the Chancas and Michiquillay projects worth US$5.4 billion because China’s demand and limited supply will help boost global copper prices.

6. Outlook for the copper price market outlook

The market's expectations for the global economic recovery have increased. With the continuous advancement of vaccines, the haze of the epidemic in Europe and the United States has continued to weaken. The European Central Bank said that trade has almost returned to the level before the epidemic and that it can remain optimistic about the economic outlook in the second half of the year. However, the four consecutive months of contraction in the service industry have brought the Eurozone economy into a second recession, but the recession has slowed down. The US stimulus plan continues to advance, but the job market is mixed and has not yet recovered from the impact of the epidemic. The Fed said it may not be able to restore full employment within the year.

China's economic growth target for this year is set at more than 6%, which will steadily increase bulk consumption such as automobiles and home appliances, and increase charging piles and other facilities. According to data from the Passenger Association, the cumulative retail sales of passenger vehicles in the first two months increased by about 71% year-on-year. The China Automobile Association predicts that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 1.8 million this year. The terminal market demand will be more positive in the future, and the peak season consumption expectation in the second quarter still exists, but the macro atmosphere is uncertain. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate next week.