#$QQQ

[dragonflycap]

What to expect from the stock market this week

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with October in the books and heading into the election and FOMC meeting, equity markets experienced a Halloween spooking. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to consolidate in its uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) pulled back in their consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the short term move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) pulled back in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain at a neutral level, above the base established this year, and was likely to stay there at least until after the election. This might make for choppy light trading for equity markets to start next week. Their charts looked strong on the longer timeframe though. On the shorter timeframe both the $QQQ and $SPY had reset momentum measures lower and could reverse or turn bearish, likely a couple of days’ time would tell. The $IWM did not seem concerned about an election or Fed policy, churning sideways.

The week saw major movements happen following the election. It played out with Gold pulling back from its high Wednesday before a partial recovery while Crude Oil found some strength and moved higher in a choppy range. The US Dollar jumped to a 4 month high while Treasuries fell back to a 5½ month low Wednesday before a recovery. The Shanghai Composite continued the move to the upside while Emerging Markets chopped in a wide range.

Volatility crashed down to the low end of the range since August. This put a stiff breeze at the backs of equities and they started to move up Tuesday and then accelerated Wednesday through the end of the week. This resulted in the SPY and QQQ printing a new all-time highs Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and the IWM gapping up to a 1 year high. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

The SPY came into the week at the 50 day SMA on the daily chart in a pullback from the top. It had a gap left open from the end of the week. It held there on Monday and then started higher Tuesday, into the gap. It gapped up Wednesday to finish at a new all-time high and leaving an island below. It followed that up with new all-time highs Thursday and Friday. The Bollinger Bands® are open to the upside. The RSI is rising deep in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising.

The weekly chart shows a strong, long bullish candle rising from the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The 200% extension is now within view at 614 above. The RSI is rising near overbought territory in the bullish zone with the MACD drifting up and positive. There is no resistance above 599.60. Support lower sits at 585 and 580 then 574.50 and 571.50 before 565.50 and 556.50. Uptrend.

With the Presidential Election and November FOMC meeting in the rearview mirror, equity markets showed jubilation as they vaulted higher. Elsewhere look for Gold to in its uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates in a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues to move to the upside while US Treasuries consolidate in their pullback. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the move higher while Emerging Markets chop in their short term uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low and drifting lower following the election making it easier for equity markets to continue higher. Their charts look strong on both timeframes, especially the SPY and QQQ. The IWM has now joined the party, a stone’s throw away from making its first new all-time high in 2 years. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview November 8, 2024

[jeffhirsch]

Halloween Trading Strategy Treat Begins Next Week

Next week provides a special short-term seasonal opportunity, one of the most consistent of the year. The last 4 trading days of October and the first 3 trading days of November have a stellar record the last 30 years. From the tables below:

DJIA: Up 24 of last 30 years, average gain 1.95%, median gain 1.39%. S&P 500: Up 25 of last 30 years, average gain 1.96%, median gain 1.61%. NASDAQ: Up 25 of last 30 years, average gain 2.43%, median gain 2.29%. Russell 2000: Up 23 of last 30 years, average gain 2.34%, median gain 2.56%.

Many refer to our Best Six Months Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy as the Halloween Indicator or Halloween Strategy and of course “Sell in May”. These catch phrases highlight our discovery that was first published in 1986 in the 1987 Stock Trader’s Almanac that most of the market’s gains have been made from October 31 to April 30, while the market, on average, tends to go sideways to down from May through October.

Since issuing our Seasonal MACD Buy signal for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000, on October 11, 2024, we have been moving into new long trades targeting seasonal strength in various sectors of the market via ETFs and a basket of new stock ideas. The above 7-day span is one specific period of strength during the “Best Months.” Plenty of time remains to take advantage of seasonal strength.

[theballadofmars]

I love how mqf's oficial description is something like: a good heart who wants to help others but then you read the novel and his reaction to lqg trapping ten infected men who are crying in panic is "great now I can start to work in my experiments with decomposed people to find a cure" and gets out a lot of needles, which makes the man cry even harder.

Even if we only get bits of the other Cang Qiong sect leader's we can reach the conclusion that no one there is normal, sqq is just biased.

[rhiangalaxy]

Shen Qingqiu's guide to causing emotional damage to your martial siblings (ft. a bonus under the cut)

[ID: A Scum Villain Comic. The first part depicts, from left to right, Shang Qinghua, Mu Qingfang, Yue Qingyuan, Liu Qingge and Qi Qingqi. SQH has his hands gripped together and looking nervously towards a system screen that has a shrugging kaomoji, a thought bubble leads from him saying "System WTF". MQF with his hands folded down in front of him looks on in surprise. YQY with his hands behind this back, looking slightly on the verge of tears says "Uh, What do you have there Shen-Shidi?". LQG looks on in angry confusion with '???' next to his face. QQQ has one hand curled towards her chest and the other on her hip looking vaguely disgusted/judgy. The next part depicts SJ!Shen Qingqiu holding a baby Plant!Yuan swaddled in his teal outer robe, and holding a closed fan in the other hand replying to YGY with a blank expression by going "... A Fan." End ID.]

[ID: A Scum Villain MSPaint Doodle. Characters in chibi style. YGY rests his chin in his hands and his elbows on a table, crying with a pitiful expression and saying "I can't believe Xiao Jiu had a baby with someone else. MQF with a hand on YQY's shoulder as if comforting him replies "Okay Shixiong lets get you to bed" with another box pointing to him that states "Knows damn well that Shen Yuan is the spitting image of YQY" End ID]

[tk-duveraun]

I gotta make my own food around here. No one helps in this kitchen

SY transmigrates early, system beta test or something, does the wandering cultivator thing for a few decades, realizes the strays he picked up have formed a sect and he's the leader and no he doesn't get a choice in the matter

In terms of most powerful cultivators, SY is #10 in the cultivation world, but his sect is seen very poorly because, well, it's made up of strays and he encourages any noble kids to go to HHP because he needs to save his resources for kids who need him

Yue Qi and Shen Jiu get picked up by one of SY's staples and brought in. Their potential is insane and after a little training and researching current events he's pretty sure this "Yue" and "Shen" belong in CQM.

But it's already been 3 years. The boys aren't interested in sex yet, but they have been mommy-wife beamed thoroughly and fight him when he tells them he's made special arrangements with the CQM sect leader to accept them

He pulls the whole "Don't you want to be strong?" Schtick and they are not happy, but they are children and easily carried by a cultivator of his caliber

Shen Jiu swears revenge and SY breathes a sigh of relief that things are finally back on track.

But he misses them and tries to lose himself in traveling and oh no, this poor demonic snake is injured! (Fully juiced up by TLJ zzl just took snake form to lick his wounds more safely bc he's in the human realm) Zzl is fully prepared to transform and eat SY whole, but instead sy is very very gentle, asks permission before touching and coaxes the injured Zzl to last in the warm inside of his arm within his sleeve.

Sadly, Zzl has duties to his lord once he's healed, but he'll be back for this cultivator. Blah blah, plot happens, SY scoops up baby bingy (and the washer woman) and plants them in his sect, intending to send LBH off to CQM at the appropriate time.

He realizes his interference might have made SJ less of an asshole in general, but he DID swear revenge so maybe that's the angle the abuse will take.

Joke's on him, the first thing YQY does when the Qing generation steps up is strong arm SY into an alliance marriage. Shen Jiu becomes first wife.

(YQY isn't legally married for political reasons, but as SJ explains while dragging him into the marital bed, they are a set)

Zzl actively seeks SY out for help with TLJ and while SY can't do anything about that, he fishes up a plot amulet that gives Zzl free shapeshifting.

Zzl insists marriage is the only way to repay SY (tlj's advice) and eventually SY caves.

Wife count: 3

LQG has never met SY but heard rumors about him being a celestial fairy or wherever, so he's concerned SJ is treating him poorly and follows SJ to his marital sect. He catches SY on the way out to hunt some great beast

Wife count: 4

[onlyfriend]

assorted robot* stamps

[pippuns]

or: the one where shen qingqiu stumbles on a bunch of compiled evidence from qi qingqi that he is Not The Same Person as shen jiu

[nanocados]

Sometimes your biggest husband haters are your colleagues I mean martial siblings

[artsarasp]

Sorry to ask for worldbuilding stuff, but for your System AU, since it’s offering missions and the first reward was 10% account reestablishment, what sorts of rewards has it been offering on subsequent missions? How many missions has LQG gone through by the time of MQF’s first mission? And considering he keeps getting them, does LQG keep ending up in the Water Prison?

(Just thinking that all the missions go forward, even though it would be really fun to hit YQY with a mission going back some time!)

The system keeps rewarding the peak lords with various percentages of sqq's account restoration, however, the percentages are not set and vary based on how "well" they perform in their mission.

This is frustrating because they do not understand the metrics the system uses to calculate their reward. From their perspective, the system is just dangling sqq's release in front of them to taunt them, but the system gives the reward based on how "optimal" he deems that plotline and how likely it is to push for that one forward.

LQG has been giving the best results because as the system said, he's a very proactive character and pushes the plot forward, but he doesn't always end up in the Water Prison. The system keeps going "what if?" with these missions, giving them different scenarios to act out to see how they react. It probably switched some of the scenarios around too, see how yqy reacts to what he previously gave to lqg and stuff. Maybe even a co-op mission idk, system is trying stuff out and i left it nebulous on purpose. The system tho wouldn't give any missions about the past, because its trying to fix the plot going forward and it can't fix what already happened.

[pastelshroomsbasement]

more qi qingqi transmigrator au bc she lives in my head rent free

[dragonflycap]

What to expect from the stock market this week

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the inflation reports behind us, equity markets showed strength with the SPY ending at an all-time high. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated in a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to move to the upside while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to reverse lower while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidate the start of an uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong, especially the $SPY and $QQQ on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY were now ready to resume the move higher. The $IWM looked a bit less powerful but was holding near resistance, a good show of relative strength for the small caps.

The week played out with Gold chugging higher and ending at a new all-time high while Crude Oil fell back in the broad consolidation. The US Dollar met resistance at a lower high at the end of the week while Treasuries printed a Dead Cat Bounce after finding support Monday. The Shanghai Composite continued lower toward the September month end gap while Emerging Markets turned consolidation into a falling wedge.

Volatility drifted down to the lowest close of the month. This gave equities some breathing room and they rose to to start the week with the SPY printing a new all-time high Monday. All gave back some gains midweek before recovering to finish the week strong. This left the SPY back at the high, the QQQ near the October high and the IWM holding at nearly 3 year highs. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at a new all-time high. It started off on the right foot making another one on Monday but ended out of the Bollinger Bands® on the daily chart. That led to a pullback on Tuesday and small reversal higher on Wednesday. Thursday broke higher as well with a gap up at the open, but it did not hold and then another gap up Friday held with the SPY ending at a new all-time high. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and climbing as those Bollinger Bands point higher.

The weekly chart shows a 6th consecutive move higher as it makes some separation from the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is making a higher high, negating a possible momentum divergence with the MACD crossed up and rising. There is resistance at 585 above. Support comes at 580 and 574.50 then 571.50 and 565.50 before 561.50 and 556.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the October Options Expiration in the books, equity markets showed some strength battling against a narrative of slower Fed cuts. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil drops in consolidation. The US Dollar Index may reverse the short term uptrend while US Treasuries pullback in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to drop back from its spike while Emerging Markets stall in their move higher.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the SPY is leading the way higher with the QQQ slowly battling back to its high and the IWM poking its head up perhaps to make another attempt at a run higher. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview October 18, 2024

[jeffhirsch]

No Escaping Historically Miserable August

So much for a positive election-year August for the market. A combination of stretched valuations, weak/tepid earnings, a disappointing July jobs report, a late-cycle change in presidential candidates, currency market volatility and geopolitics has put the major indexes in a deep hole to climb back out of. As of today’s close, losses in August range from -5.1% from DJIA to 9.7% by Russell 2000.

These sharp declines have drawn comparisons to past difficult Augusts such as 1990 (Iraq invaded Kuwait), 1997 (Asian currency contagion), 1998 (Russian debt/currency), 2010 (European debt), 2011 (U.S. debt downgrade) and 2015 (China growth scare & yuan devalue). But August weakness does not always need a crisis or trigger with sizable S&P 500 declines also occurring in 1988 (-3.9%), 2001 (-6.4%), 2013 (-3.1%), and 2022 (-4.2%). All of this weakness is why August has been the worst DJIA month and second worst month of the year for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 from 1988 to 2023.

Looking at the chart of 2024 through the close today (August 7) compared to the seasonal patterns using the last 36 years of data, more chop and volatility is likely in store for the market in the near-term. After an early August selloff, the market has tended to spend the balance of August bouncing around on average with little meaningful progress. The tightening of the presidential election and elevated geopolitical tensions are likely to keep a lid on markets through the rest of the “Worst Months.”

[gludgenbell]

OW! Shimei you really don't have to pull so hard-!

What's oghua in trouble for this time? I'll let you decide

[friendodo]

This is the best day of head disciple yue qingyuan's life!!!!!! (don't tell him that the only reason this happened was bc shen jiu accidentally breathed in sleep inducing pollen and didn't bother telling anybody)

drawn for @slough_art's request for SJ falling asleep on YQY shoulder :)

bonus yqy fangirling in his diary when they get back to the sect:

[piosplayhouse]

[Qi Qingqi x Yu Ziyuan] What could have been

(alt text)

[linory1]