#troels lund poulsen

[tomorrowusa]

Trump thinks European countries should spend more on defense. And most have – under President Joe Biden.

One European country in particular is spending more to defend itself against a crazed imperialist – Donald Trump.

The Danish government has announced a huge boost in defence spending for Greenland, hours after US President-elect Donald Trump repeated his desire to purchase the Arctic territory. Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said the package was a "double digit billion amount" in krone, or at least $1.5bn (£1.2bn). He described the timing of the announcement as an "irony of fate". On Monday Trump said ownership and control of the huge island was an "absolute necessity" for the US. Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory, is home to a large US space facility and is strategically important for the US, lying on its shortest route to Europe. It has major mineral and oil reserves. Poulsen said the package would allow for the purchase of two new inspection ships, two new long-range drones and two extra dog sled teams. It would also include funding for increased staffing at Arctic Command in the capital Nuuk and an upgrade for one of Greenland's three main civilian airports to handle F-35 supersonic fighter aircraft. "We have not invested enough in the Arctic for many years, now we are planning a stronger presence," he said. The defence minister did not give an exact figure for the package, but Danish media estimated it would be around 12-15bn krone. The announcement came a day after Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social: "For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity." Greenland's Prime Minister Mute Egede responded to Trump's comments, saying "we are not for sale". [ ... ] Trump's original suggestion in 2019 that the US acquire Greenland, which is the world's largest island, led to a similarly sharp rebuke from leaders there. At the time Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederickson described the idea as "absurd", leading Trump to cancel a state trip to the country.

Perhaps Greenland's flag would be a good one to wave to show opposition to Trump.

[affairsmastery]

Denmark is investing 14.6 billion kroner (£1.6bn; $2.05bn) to bolster Arctic security in partnership with Greenland and the Faroe Islands. The initiative includes new Arctic ships, advanced long-range drones, and enhanced satellite capabilities. Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen emphasized the rising security challenges in the Arctic and North Atlantic regions.

This investment follows heightened interest in Greenland, especially after US President Donald Trump’s controversial proposal to acquire the island, which remains strategically vital due to its natural resources and location. Greenland’s leadership reaffirmed its autonomy, welcoming Denmark's efforts to address emerging threats while prioritizing local sovereignty. Further funding announcements are expected soon.

[mariacallous]

The Danish government has prepared its 21st package of military assistance to Ukraine, totaling €321.8 million [approximately $346 million]. This package will support both the supply of weapons from stockpiles and orders from international suppliers.

This announcement was made on Friday, October 18, by the Danish Ministry of Defense.

The new military aid package includes provisions for supplying weapons from the Danish army's stockpiles, funding for air defense systems in collaboration with Germany, and additional contributions to the International Fund for Ukraine, led by the UK.

Furthermore, new funds will be allocated to expand training programs for Ukrainian military personnel.

"The 21st aid package is designed to provide as much military support as possible to meet the urgent needs of Ukrainians, while also supporting Denmark's commitment to the long-term development of Ukraine's defense capabilities," stated Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.

He also noted that the Danish government is exploring options to procure weapons, including drones, directly from manufacturers in Ukraine.

The funding still requires approval from the financial committee of the Danish Parliament, as mentioned in the report.

In total, from 2023 to 2028, Denmark has allocated €8.7 billion [approximately $9.4 billion] for military support to Ukraine, to be implemented through a special Ukrainian fund. So far, over €6.4 billion [approximately $7 billion] have already been spent or earmarked.

[adropofhumanity]

Denmark admitted to transferring several parts for F-35 combat aircraft in March this year directly to Israel, which uses the advanced aircraft in its ongoing onslaught on Gaza.

Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen in a memo to the Danish Parliament's Defense Committee on Monday said the manufactured weapons were sent from warehouse in Skrydstrup in Southern Jutland, reported news outlet Altinget.

The military transfer came against the backdrop of a Dutch court order that stopped the government to supply F-35 fighter jet parts to Israel that it uses in deadly airstrikes on the Gaza Strip.

[warllikeparakeetiii]

Greenland…

““There are serious challenges regarding security and defence in the Arctic and North Atlantic,” Denmark’s Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said in a statement… Earlier this month, Trump said Greenland is vital to US security and Denmark must give up control.”

[head-post]

Denmark launches $2 billion Arctic security plan, seeks EU unity on Greenland issue

Denmark announced a $2bn Arctic security plan to protect Greenland after US President Donald Trump claimed the island was essential to US “national security.”

Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen urged attention to security in the Arctic and North Atlantic.

We must face the fact that there are serious challenges regarding security and defence in the Arctic and North Atlantic.

His statement came ahead of a visit by Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to Berlin, Paris and Brussels to reinforce “European unity” over the Greenland issue.

As Greenland’s ice melts due to global warming, the battle over the island’s natural resources is also escalating. Huge deposits of oil and gas are believed to lie beneath its seas. It is expected that the Arctic could soon offer new shipping routes between the US and Europe.

Frederiksen announced a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as well as with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Denmark is a small country with strong allies. And it is part of a strong European community where together we can meet the challenges we face.

Earlier in January, Trump expressed interest in buying Greenland and the Panama Canal, not ruling out the possibility of deploying military force to control the two crucial objects. However, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday that the EU was “not negotiating” on Greenland.

We are not negotiating on Greenland. Of course, we are supporting our member state, Denmark, and its autonomous region, Greenland, but we shouldn’t also go into speculation about what-ifs because this is not the situation right now.

Greenland and Denmark publicly stated that the Arctic island was not for sale, with Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte B. Egede stating that its people should decide their own future. The latest opinion poll showed that 85 per cent of Greenlanders did not want their island to become part of the United States.

Read more HERE

[gurutrends]

Greenland: Denmark to bolster defense capacities after Donald Trump remarks

Greenland: Denmark to bolster defense capacities after Donald Trump remarks The Scandinavian government has unveiled a major plan to enhance the defense capabilities of the small nation as the incoming U.S. president considers asserting control over it. Without revealing specifics, Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told the local media outlet Jyllands-Posten that the government will invest…

[usafphantom2]

'Dozens' of Ukrainian pilots began training to fly the F-16 fighters

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 06/15/2023 - 16:00 in Military, War Zones

Several NATO countries have announced the beginning of the training of Ukrainian military pilots to fly modern fighters, such as the F-16, which opens the possibility of considering the decision to hand them over to Ukraine when the pilots are ready for it.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said this before the meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on Thursday, June 15.

"I welcome the decision of several NATO allies to provide training for [Ukrainian] fighter pilots. This is important and will allow us, at the most recent stage, to also make decisions to deliver fourth-generation fighters, such as the F-16," he said.

He also praised Denmark for playing a leading role in facilitating this agreement, offering to train Ukrainian pilots and continue to provide significant support to Ukraine.

"It's too early to say when exactly this decision will be made. But the fact that the training has started gives us the option to also decide to deliver the planes and then the pilots will be ready to fly them," Stoltenberg said.

He recalled that earlier this week he visited Washington to discuss preparations for the Vilnius summit with U.S. President Joe Biden. Among the main topics of these negotiations were aid to Ukraine, the need to strengthen the promise of investment in defense of NATO and other important issues for the alliance.

A two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers began in Brussels on June 15. The main issues of the summit are the continuation of assistance to Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression and the preparations for the NATO Summit in Vilnius from 11 to 12 July.

As part of the meeting, there will be a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission and a meeting of the United States-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group. One of the key issues of this meeting will be the creation of the so-called fighter coalition, which will contribute to the supply of modern fourth-generation fighters to Ukraine for its self-defense and fight against Russian aggression.

On May 22, Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union, announced that the Ukrainian pilots had already started training the F-16.

F-16 Fighting Falcon Fighter. (Photo: Radoslaw Jozwiak/AFP/Getty Images)

However, on May 23, Troels Lund Poulsen, Danish's interim defense minister, said that Ukrainian pilots can start F-16 training only in July.

He also indicated that it can take up to six months before the necessary conditions for the use of F-16 fighters in Ukraine are established.

Eight European countries have already joined the “F-16 fighter coalition” supporting Ukraine, with the Netherlands and Denmark leading the collaborative effort.

The United States announced that, in the coming months, Ukraine's military allies will collaborate to determine the time, participants and the number of aircraft to be transferred to Ukraine. However, the delivery of fighters will depend on Ukraine's commitment to refrain from using them in attacks on Russian territory.

Tags: Military AviationF-16 Fighting FalconWar Zones - Russia/Ukraine

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Fernando Valduga

Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Daytona Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. Uses Canon equipment during his photographic work around the world of aviation.

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[warningsine]

Women in Denmark are to be conscripted for military service for the first time under a proposed armed forces overhaul that comes amid Europe’s worsening relations with Russia and the war in Ukraine.

“We do not rearm because we want war. We are rearming because we want to avoid it,” said the prime minister, Mette Frederiksen.

The government, she said, wanted “full equality between the sexes” and to extend the length of military service from four to 11 months.

Under plans for its 2024-2033 defence settlement, 5,000 conscripts, both male and female, will be called up each year from 2026.

About 4,700 people did military service last year, women only on a voluntary basis, and usually for four months.

The plans have yet to be made law, with negotiations set to take place between parties in the coming weeks, but in June last year a broad majority in the Folketinget – the Danish parliament – agreed with a defence settlement specifying greater equality in conscription.

The defence department said its armed forces needed a “historic strengthening” that required a rethink of the conscription model amid growing concerns over Europe’s defence capabilities in the face of Russian aggression.

Denmark’s defence minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, said: “Unfortunately, the security policy situation in Europe has become more and more serious, and we have to take that into account when we look at future defence. A more robust conscription, including full gender equality, must contribute to the armed forces’ task resolution, national mobilisation and to manning our armed forces.”

He added: “It is absolutely crucial that we get a more robust conscription in Denmark when we have to build up the Danish defence. Therefore, a broader basis for recruiting that includes all genders is needed.”

Under the new 11-month conscription model, announced on Wednesday, conscripts will be given five months of basic training before spending six months in operational service across the army, air force and navy, during which they will also have training.

At the moment, all physically fit men over the age of 18 in Denmark, which has a population of just under 6 million, can be called up for military service. Because enough men do so voluntarily, there is a lottery system that means not all of them have to serve.

In 1998, women were permitted for the first time to serve military service on a voluntary basis.

Flemming Lentfer, the chief of defence, said conscription expansion was a “necessary foundation” for strengthening Denmark’s armed forces’ combat power.

“In the armed forces, we support all initiatives that can expand our recruitment base and increase diversity. Here, a higher degree of equality between the sexes is both necessary and desirable,” he said.

[passionat3]

in general, I agree, especially in the workplace. Don't do this to your colleagues!!

but it's so fucking funny in the context of danish politics. Those who warrant enough respect for last name only are pretty much long dead, plus surnames are so not unique.

Mette Frederiksen is Mette not just because there are fewer Mettes than Frederiksens but also because most people hate her. Same for Lars Løkke (Rasmussen). Troels Lund Poulsen and Jacob Ellemann Jensen are both full names. Magnus Heunicke is special because he has an uncommon surname, but people still use his full name.

Inger Støjberg is usually full name but sometimes just given name, Pia Olsen Dyhr is sometimes surname usually full name, Morten Messerschmidt is ... Usually full name, sometimes surname? Same for Mai Villadsen and Alex Vanopslagh.

but yeah, moral of the story, its always just Mette and Lars Løkke

If you routinely refer to every politician by their last name except for the women who you’re always apparently on a first name basis with, maybe spare a moment to ponder that habit.

[tomorrowusa]

Denmark is boosting its defense spending to protect Greenland.

Trump wants NATO countries to increase their defense budgets, but he probably didn't expect to be the target of that spending.

Denmark will invest 14.6 billion kroner ($2.05 billion / €1.95 billion) in its military presence in the Arctic, Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen announced at a Monday press conference. The announcement follows close on the heels of repeated statements by US President Donald Trump, who has said he would "get Greenland," an autonomous Danish territory. Greenland, the world's largest island, is situated between Canada, Russia and the Europe. The territory, rich in mineral resources, had already caught the attention of countries including the United States, Russia and China. Additionally, global warming has begun to melt Greenland's ice, opening up new shipping lanes and making it more accessible. [ ... ] "We must face the fact that there are serious challenges regarding security and defense in the Arctic and North Atlantic," said Denmark's Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, adding that the security situation had worsened of late. Beyond improving surveillance capabilities, the treaty is also designed to "assert sovereignty in the regions," while at the same time supporting "close allies and NATO" missions in the Arctic. The investment follows more than a decade of drastic defense spending cuts. The announcement was greeted very positively by politicians across Denmark's political spectrum, as well in Greenland and the Faroe Islands, with lawmakers agreeing that more funding would be negotiated over the coming months.

Shhhh! Don't tell Trump about the Faroe Islands.

Greenland will have elections in the next few months. Trump's threats to the territory are certain to be a major issue.

Elections in Greenland are expected to be announced in the next two months and independence will likely loom large when the vote comes. [ ... ] Trump's obsession with Greenland has been described by Danish government sources as "serious, and potentially very dangerous," with the prospect of military intervention or crushing tariffs, since the US is Greenland's biggest trading partner, already putting enormous pressure on the territory and its Danish partners.

[newsclickofficial]

Denmark has said it will spend 14.6 billion kroner (£1.6bn; $2.05bn) to boost security in the Arctic region, in partnership with its autonomous territories Greenland and the Faroe Islands.The deal includes three new Arctic ships, more long-range drones with advanced image acquisition capacity and stronger satellite capacity."We must face the fact that there are serious challenges regarding security and defence in the Arctic and North Atlantic," Denmark's Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said.The move comes after US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he wants to acquire Greenland, an island which has wide-ranging autonomy but remains part of Denmark.Asked earlier in January whether he could rule out using military or economic force to pursue his desire to take over the territory, Trump said he could not.Greenland, the world's most sparsely populated territory, is home to about 56,000 mostly indigenous Inuit people.The US has long maintained a security interest in Greenland. After Nazi Germany occupied mainland Denmark during World War II, the US invaded Greenland, establishing military and radio stations across the territory. It has maintained a presence in the region since.Greenland lies on the shortest route from North America to Europe, making it strategically important for the US.In recent years, there has been increased interest in Greenland's natural resources, including mining for rare earth minerals, uranium and iron."Greenland is entering a time of changing threat landscape," Vivian Motzfeldt, Greenland's Independence and Foreign Affairs Minister, said in a statement announcing the new defence spending. "I am pleased that with this partial agreement we have taken the first step towards strengthening security in and around Greenland."An announcement of further funding is expected to come in the first half of this year.The new investment follows Denmark's separate announcement in December that it was spending roughly £1.2 billion on Greenland's defence, including the purchase of new ships, long-range drones and extra dog sled teams.Poulsen then described the timing of the announcement as an "irony of fate" - coming just after Trump said ownership and control of Greenland was an "absolute necessity" for the US.Greenland's prime minister has said the territory is not for sale, adding that "Greenland belongs to the people of Greenland".Denmark's prime minister has told Trump that it is up to Greenland to decide its own future.Trump has doubled down on his intent since then, despite warnings from European countries to not threaten Greenland.

[mariacallous]

The end of Sweden’s drawn-out accession to NATO signifies the completion of the Baltic region’s political transformation and strategic reconfiguration. Both processes were accelerated by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which has recently crossed the two-year mark, and in both transitions, Russia loses. The value of Russia’s longstanding economic ties and political influence in the region is lost entirely, and its capacity to project military power there is reduced to an unprecedented minimum. An informal coalition of Northern European and Baltic states committed to countering any and all Russian aggression is in the making, and the Russian army’s offensive capabilities continue to be diminished on the Ukrainian battlefields.

These shifts in European security may appear to make the Northern European political and military leaders’ persistent warnings regarding the need to invest in deterring the Russian threat seem over-cautious and even alarmist. President Vladimir Putin found it opportune to assert that invading Poland or Latvia is “out of the question … because we have no interest in Poland, Latvia or anywhere else.” Putin’s reassurances are anything but convincing, and Western leaders confirmed the urgency of building up defense capabilities at the 2024 Munich Security Conference. Their message is, nevertheless, contradicted by the European public’s diminishing concerns about the Russian threat, and commentators in Moscow are quick to point out this discrepancy. Even deeper disagreements have flared up regarding the possibility of sending combat forces from some NATO states to Ukraine. The question of the real military threat that Russia poses to its neighbors, and its potential timeline, deserves more scrutiny.

Scandinavia’s Zeitenwende: Prudent preparations or undue panicking?

Describing the war in Ukraine as a “stalemate” poorly captures the fast-evolving, high-intensity, multi-domain battles that are occurring, and belies the dire situation the Ukrainian army was facing at the start of 2024, which prompted a stream of strong warnings from Northern Europe’s usually reserved political leaders. Swedish Minister for Civil Defense Carl-Oskar Bohlin first sounded the alarm when he warned at his country’s main annual conference that war could come to Sweden. Swedes and Europeans largely reacted with disbelief and criticism, and Russian propaganda added more scorn, but more official statements and intelligence assessments, including a firm endorsement from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, lent credence to Bohlin’s comment. The large-scale Nordic Response 2024 exercise, which constitutes a part of NATO’s Steadfast Defender 2024 strategic exercise, demonstrated that Scandinavia is indeed going through its own Zeitenwende moment.

One particular aspect of this debate that invariably attracts concern is the proposition that Russia could attack a NATO country within three to five years, as suggested, inter alia, by Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen. This timeframe might appear unnecessarily short given the Russian army’s huge casualties and the deepening degradation of Russia’s defense-industrial complex. However, what underpins this disturbing Nordic estimate is the supposition that Ukraine might be forced to accept a compromise and sign an unfair peace deal with a victorious Russia, an option advocated by quite a few Western experts. Their arguments emphasize Russia’s “victory” at Avdiivka—costly as it was—and exaggerate Ukraine’s war exhaustion, evidenced by the political quarrels over the new legislation on mobilization and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to reshuffle the military leadership.

The “bad peace” option loomed large in early January when the balance of war was tilted heavily in Moscow’s favor, primarily because Western support for Ukraine was paused while the Russian military-industrial complex was operating at peak performance. Since then, however, three significant developments raised Ukraine from the nadir, and two more are in the making. The first was the organization of an “artillery coalition” on the initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron, who correctly recognized the crucial importance of denying Russian superiority in tube and missile artillery. This focus was strengthened by Czech President Petr Pavel’s announcement of a program for purchasing 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine. The second shift was the European Council’s unanimous approval of a 50-billion-euro (approximately $54.6 billion) aid package to Ukraine for 2024-2027. The third development started with the agreement between Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania for a joint naval mine-clearing operation securing the maritime corridor to Odesa and continued with a series of Ukrainian hits on the Russian Black Sea Fleet that have effectively denied it access to its bases in Crimea. Ukraine is also set to gain by the end of spring from the combat deployment of several squadrons of F-16 fighters supplied by a coalition of European states led by Denmark and the Netherlands.

Yet important as all these developments are, the major breakthrough would be the U.S. Congress’ long-delayed approval of the $60-billion aid package to Ukraine, which will secure the delivery of urgently needed military hardware, including artillery shells and surface-to-air missiles. This approval cannot be taken for granted, but the effective majority in the House of Representatives remains solid despite the populist recourse with isolationism and so may yet surmount the frustrating technicalities. No amount of European support can compare with this boost to Ukrainian combat capabilities, and no amount of Russian effort at sustaining their offensive after the capture of Avdiivka can prevent U.S. reengagement from turning the tide of the war.

Russia rethinks its Arctic-Baltic geostrategy

Moscow’s decision to maximally concentrate Russia’s military capabilities and economic resources on waging war against Ukraine has left it at a stark disadvantage vis-à-vis the reenergized NATO alliance along the North-Western interface. Moscow used to have superiority of such scale in the Baltic theater that authoritative Western military experts presumed forward positions in Estonia and Latvia to be indefensible and expected a Russian attack across the Suwalki Gap to make a decisive breakthrough. All these forebodings of inevitable defeat have presently become irrelevant, and NATO can confidently plan for defending every inch of Estonian or Lithuanian territory against any offensive grouping that Russia may put together in the immediate future. Expert debates about the effectiveness of the Kaliningrad region’s presumed anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) posture have been resolved by the repeatedly proven inability of the maximum-strength Russian air defenses to protect “Fortress Crimea” from Ukrainian missile and drone strikes.

The Russian high command has recognized that the Baltic theater’s military balance has swung from Russia’s habitual superiority to a deep disadvantage. Already in December 2022, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced a plan to build a new army corps in Karelia, the region on the Finnish border between St. Petersburg and Murmansk. More deployments of troops were supposed to be planned, but the execution of Moscow’s announced response to NATO enlargement has been thwarted by the continual necessity to send every minimally combat-capable unit to the Ukrainian front. In December 2023, Putin decreed an increase of the total strength of the Russian Armed Forces to 1,320,000 troops, but his claims of a steady inflow of volunteers are refuted by the fact that Russia is illegally recruiting in such exotic places as Nepal. Intelligence assessments in such exposed countries as Estonia correctly point to the Russian plans for deploying new units in key strategic directions along the border with NATO, but the implementation of these plans has been postponed until a cease-fire with Ukraine is realized.

One change in the Russian Armed Forces’ organizational structure that reveals a profound change in strategic thinking is Putin’s decree on reconstituting the Moscow and Leningrad (notably not St. Petersburg) military districts. The previous strategic design developed in 2014-2021 was to build an Arctic strategic command on the basis of the Northern Fleet, which was elevated to a separate military district. The underlying assessment in the Russian General Staff was that the Arctic, with the key transport corridor of the Northern Sea Route, constituted an interface with NATO that was significantly different from the Baltic theater. The key difference is that while the Northern Fleet comprises a major part of Russia’s strategic arsenal, the grouping of conventional forces that was supposed to dominate the Baltic region had little need for nuclear weapons. That separation between the Arctic and the Baltic theaters was underpinned by the assumption that Helsinki would remain neutral in any possible conflict—and was proven false by Finland’s shockingly swift accession to NATO.

The newly-restored Leningrad military district is intended to integrate the operations of Russia’s Northern and Baltic Fleets and the ground force groupings along the continuous North-Western interface with NATO, but commanding diverse units in the vast area from the Arctic archipelago of Novaya Zemlya to the Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad will be highly demanding. No new strength can actually be gained from merging the many weaknesses in Russia’s military posture as even the designated Arctic brigade has been repeatedly decimated by fighting in the Donbas.

Russia used to counter every NATO exercise with a show of force, but it has nothing to respond to the ongoing Steadfast Defender 2024 series of exercises, in which the newest U.K. aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales is taking part, while the unlucky Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov is stuck with long repairs. The Russian Baltic Fleet is experimenting with redeploying its Karakurt-class missile corvettes to Lake Ladoga, east of St. Petersburg, in order to give them a better chance of survival. It has only one old submarine in its combat order, while the Swedish Navy alone has four and two A26 Blekinge-class submarines are under construction. Russian experts abhor the notion of the Baltic Sea as a “NATO lake,” but the extended sea line of communication between St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad cannot be effectively protected, and Estonia’s deployment of Blue Spear anti-ship missiles increases this vulnerability.

Risks inherent to NATO’s new position of strength in the Baltic theater

Russia is acutely uncomfortable with its political isolation and military weakness in the Baltic theater and is actively seeking asymmetric and “hybrid” measures in order to compensate for its disadvantages. The crude hit on the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia on October 8, 2023, by the anchor of a Chinese-owned container ship could have been a test run for a strategy of sabotaging underwater infrastructure. Many pipelines and cables in the Baltic and North Seas are hard-to-protect targets, while Russia—ruing the loss of the Nord Stream gas pipeline—does not have similar assets anymore. Unfortunately for Moscow, the European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (known as Hybrid CoE) is located in Helsinki, and its research is a step ahead of most mischief prepared by the Russian special services.

The main issue with NATO’s present-day position of strength in the Baltics is that it may unravel quickly—and this is what underpins the emphasis added in allied political planning on a looming kinetic war. Three conditions need to converge for this worst-case scenario to become a certainty. The first is a severe curtailing or even complete interruption of U.S. military aid to Ukraine; the second is a negotiated cessation of hostilities consolidating Russian territorial gains in Ukraine; and the third condition is the sustained expansion of Russia’s defense-industrial complex. NATO’s European member states have little influence on the first and the third of these three developments, so they have to prioritize strengthening Ukraine’s resilience.

This imperative prompted Macron to convene a high-level conference in Paris, just two weeks after the Munich gathering, where he heavily hinted at the possibility of deploying allied forces to Ukraine. Macron’s motives are open to interpretation, but his logic is straightforward: In order to prevent Ukraine’s defeat in the absence of U.S. material support, Europeans have to prepare to potentially send combat forces into the war zone. The alternative is to prepare for a Russian large-scale offensive operation in the Baltic region, which even in the “optimistic” German assessment could come within five to eight years. Most European politicians prefer to be “shocked” by Macron’s provocation. It is noteworthy, however, that China has warned not only against sending French troops to Ukraine but also against “ill-considered plans” for preparing to defend against a probable Russian attack in the near future.

Timing works differently in a long war of attrition rather than in fluid maneuver warfare, but it remains crucial. The deadlock in the U.S. Congress has already cost the Ukrainian forces the loss of fortifications around Avdiivka and may make some further retreats inevitable. Providing that the European “artillery coalition” becomes operational and augments the “F-16 coalition,” which is scheduled to deliver in a couple of months, further Russian offensive operations can be checked. It will, however, take another year for the increased European investments in military industries to yield tangible results. After that, the balance of military hardware will be shifting against Russia’s overworked defense-industrial complex, which has been degraded by tightening sanctions.

This prospect demands huge sacrifices from Ukraine, and Kyiv’s determination to stay in the fight might indeed need to be reinforced by a limited deployment of French, British, or combined European forces performing particular air defense and logistical tasks. Ensuring Russia’s defeat is a long-term goal that requires many increases in the quality of European resolve and solidarity, but the war leaves diminishing space for political choices. Fortunately for Europe, investments in upgrading its own capacity for deterring Russian aggression and expanding military support for Ukraine are essentially the same thing.

[cyberbenb]

'False story' — Denmark denies Russian claims of F-16 instructor killed in Kryvyi Rih strike

The Danish Defense Ministry on Jan. 19 denied Russian claims of the death of a Danish F-16 instructor in a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, on Jan. 17.

“This is a false story being spread by the Russian media — probably with the aim of discrediting Denmark,” Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said.

The Russian strike killed four people and injured 14 others, with damage reported to high-rise buildings, houses, vehicles, and an educational institution.

Russian state news agency TASS alleged on Jan. 18 that a Danish F-16 instructor was killed during the attack, citing unnamed sources in Russia’s security services.

Denmark’s Defense Ministry dismissed the report as false, emphasizing that no Danish military personnel have died in Ukraine. Poulsen condemned the disinformation, citing it as part of broader influence campaigns amid a serious security situation.

Denmark, along with the Netherlands, has provided Ukraine with U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, which have been used in air defense operations to counter Russian missile strikes on cities and infrastructure.

Lithuania sends drones, thermal imagers, loaders in new Ukraine aid package, Defense Ministry says

“Keeping Ukraine safe means taking care of our security. We have as much time as Ukraine has,” Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

[peaksport]

Denmark calls $1.5BN Greenland defense package 'irony of fate' as Trump reiterates 'absurd takeover'

The new defense package was a “billion dollar amount” in kroner equivalent to at least $1.5 billion, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said. Source link

[newsfeed30]

Denmark boosts Greenland defence after Trump repeats desire for US control

The Danish government has announced a huge boost in defence spending for Greenland, hours after US President-elect Donald Trump repeated his desire to purchase the Arctic territory.

Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said the package was a "double digit billion amount" in krone, or at least $1.5bn (£1.2bn).

He described the timing of the announcement as an "irony of fate". On Monday Trump said ownership and control of the huge island was an "absolute necessity" for the US.

Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory, is home to a large US space facility and is strategically important for the US, lying on the shortest route from North America to Europe. It has major mineral reserves.

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