#the trump pandemic recession

[tomorrowusa]

Trump's most famous promise was to make Mexico pay for his squalid and corrupt border wall.

Amount collected from Mexico: 0 centavos.

Trump did give tax breaks to billionaires while giving COVID-19 to much of the rest of the country.

Trump's promises are as worthless as degrees from Trump University.

[robertreich]

Biden vs. Trump: Whose Economic Plan Is Better for You? 

Trump failed to deliver on his number one campaign promise:

President Trump presided over a historic net loss of nearly 3 million American jobs, the worst jobs numbers ever recorded under an American president.

This is no fluke. America’s economy has almost always done worse under Republican presidents. A New York Times analysis found that since 1933, the U.S. economy has grown nearly twice as fast on average under Democrats.

Now Trump’s defenders claim it’s not his fault that the economy collapsed under his watch. It was the pandemic. But there are two big things wrong with this.

First, the pandemic recession was as bad as it was because of Trump. His failure to lead with any national strategy left America in chaos throughout 2020, long after other nations had developed coordinated testing, tracing, and social distancing plans that allowed them to reopen their economies.

But secondly, even before the pandemic, Trump failed to deliver on his economic promises. Job growth slowed under Trump.

America added more jobs in President Obama’s last three years than in Trump’s first three.

Even before the pandemic most middle-class American households saw their incomes go down under Trump.

Trump’s major economic policy was cutting taxes on the rich and big corporations. He promised it would result in $4,000 annual raises for workers. How did that work out? Did you get a $4,000 raise?

Republicans keep claiming that if we just cut enough taxes on the rich, the wealth will “trickle down.” But it never works. Wage growth slowed after Reagan’s tax cuts for the rich and big corporations. And the Bush and Trump tax cuts didn’t trickle down either.

These giveaways to the wealthy came at the expense of investments in infrastructure, education, and health care, making life more expensive and difficult for everyone who isn’t rich.

They also exploded the debt and deficit. Reagan oversaw a 186% increase in the national debt — the biggest percentage increase in over 70 years. The Bush and Trump tax cuts, that mostly benefited corporations and the rich, are the main reasons why America’s debt is growing faster than the economy.

Republican presidents have led us into the three worst economic crises of the last century, and Democrats led us out of them.

Republicans talk about running the country like a business, but they want to run it the way Trump ran his businesses: with massive debts, a string of failures, and payouts for the folks at the top, while workers get shafted again and again. Given Republicans’ track record, why would any hard-working American put their financial security in the hands of a Republican president ever again?

[palidoozy-art]

I know I haven't posted in a bit, and I don't usually like to get too political, but:

I am very, very thankful I am fortunate enough to have moved from Texas to Massachusetts, and very, very upset the vast majority of people do not have similar options to me. It doesn't even protect me fully -- federal rights can supersede state ones, after all. The richest trans person in the world is still a trans person, and Project 2025 makes no distinction.

But I'm sorry. This was an election that was ours to lose. Everyone's out here pointing fingers, trying to find a scapegoat, and trying to argue that not enough support for their single pet cause was the reason we lost. But the reality is that It's the Economy, Stupid. We came out of a pandemic that obliterated our supply chains. Inflation and a warped view of the economy was always a hard hill to climb over, and all the social justices in the world don't mean much to people when they think their own livelihoods are at stake.

I am of the personal opinion that any incumbent this election would have lost. Even a republican. Was I hopeful that wouldn't be the case this time? Oh, absolutely! Will I still be bitter about it? Sure will! But no amount of charisma or campaign promises will ever climb over the burden of a 12 pack of Diet Pepsi going from $5 in 2020 to $8 in 2024. I think we tried to handle it the best we could. But every chart showing that inflation is cooling, that unemployment is low, and that we achieved a soft landing and avoided a recession does not matter when you pick up your grocery receipt and feel like you're paying twice as much as you did five years ago.

Don't mistake me for saying Trump would be better, though! He won't. And I will admit, there is a touch of glee I will feel over all the eCoNoMy voters getting to learn very quickly what tariffs are (and do), and the studies of their effects on washing machines. Does that offset the pain of the next 4 years, or justify the suffering of people far less fortunate than me? Fuck no. Spite can certainly fuel me, but it won't keep me warm at night.

I guess this is a lot of words for me to say I'm sorry. Sometimes you are dealt a losing hand. Doesn't mean we did everything perfectly, obviously. But there's no single fix, no single solution, that could have solved people being furious that eggs cost $4 a dozen now. We tried.

Protect yourselves, and try to protect those around you. If spite fuels your day-to-day, so be it. We have to wait and see anyway. I know I'm going to focus more locally for the next 4 years (hopefully to get more housing built, so more people can move here).

[probablyasocialecologist]

The state of the economy was the single biggest motive for Trump voters in 2024. Liberals, snarking about the “vibecession” – the mistaken belief by the public that the economy is in recession – say GDP is growing and inflation is modest at 2.4%. But headline figures don’t reflect how most people experience the economy. Prices are 20% higher than before the pandemic and, more importantly, prices for essentials such as food are up 28%. Household debt was a major stress factor. Biden also cut a raft of popular benefits established during the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, most people don’t believe the headline figures. Yet this narrative barely scratches the surface. First, the evidence suggests that people don’t always vote with their wallets: studies from the 20th century up to the present show that simple measures of economic self-interest aren’t a very good predictor of voting behaviour. The economy matters, of course, but not as a simple metric of aggregate wellbeing. It is a space in which people judge their personal standing relative to how they perceive the state of society. Personal setbacks are generally only politicised when they are perceived as part of a wider crisis. Second, while the far right can’t win without gaining some working-class support, in the US, Brazil, India and the Philippines, it relies on a bedrock of middle-class support. Besides, millions regularly have their economic lives wrecked without going far right: the poorest in most societies generally aren’t very susceptible to their message. Third, in strictly material terms the economic offer of today’s far right is paltry, yet incumbency has been incredibly forgiving for nationalist governments.

[...]

Today’s far right offers a different answer – what the political theorist William Connolly calls a “politics of existential revenge”. It replaces real disasters with imaginary disasters. Trump warns of “communist” takeover and amplifies the “great replacement” conspiracy theory. His supporters rail against “white genocide” and satanic child-molesting elites. Instead of opposing injustice, they vilify those who threaten social hierarchies like class, race and gender. Instead of confronting systems, they give you enemies you can kill. This is disaster nationalism.

11 November 2024

[tanadrin]

My impression is that both in the 2008 recession and the pandemic recession + inflation shock, the United States government, and the Obama and Biden administrations--but especially the Biden administration--demonstrated really good economic instincts. For Obama, this is notable in part because until Trump came along the Republicans were starve-the-beast deficit hawks, many of whom seemed to think that the most modest of government spending was liable to end in Weimar-era hyperinflation. The Obama response to the 2008 recession was still probably too small, giving as it did too much ground to fears of runaway inflation that turned out not to be warranted, but I reckon it was still more substantial than the equivalent Republican program would have been.

Under Biden, the U.S. got a well-managed post-pandemic recovery that was even less shy about stimulus, and as a result it is doing really well compared to other countries in the post-pandemic era. The European response was pretty meh, and growth since has been sluggish (Germany even had a small recession last year), but top-line economic indicators in the US are very strong right now. On top of that, the rich-poor gap is slowly narrowing, unemployment is low, and inflation seems to have just about fallen to pre-pandemic levels.

Everybody likes to bag on the U.S. government (and I am no exception), but people in the United States should be proud of the way their government managed the last two major economic crises, and other countries--especially in Europe, where deficit hawkishness is alive and well--can learn from their example.

[uboat53]

Here we go, in no particular order, here are some of my thoughts on what we'll see in the next year or two based on the election results:

THE ECONOMY

Unless something pretty serious happens, it's very likely that Trump will make good on his promise of massive tariffs on all American imports. Given that we import a lot of stuff from the rest of the world (check any manufactured item in your house, I'll bet it doesn't say "made in America"), that means prices will likely increase substantially. The predictable result of that is probably a pullback of consumer spending and a recession. If we're really unlucky, we'll have inflation and a recession at the same time, the dreaded "stagflation".

More broadly, it's likely that the only thing Republicans will do economically in terms of legislation is pass a massive, deficit financed tax cut for the rich. Again. Honestly, this is an easy one to guess because it's what they do every time they have power. It's direct effect will probably be minimal (though any effect is likely to be inflationary) although it remains an open question how long the US can run up the credit card without any major economic consequences.

We're also likely to see a wave of deregulation. Expect the new administration to try to roll back all of the consumer protections that Biden has put in place, end the lawsuits against big corporations that are exploiting their market power, and generally tilt the playing field back in favor of big corporations and wealthy people.

Oh yes, and let's talk about the immigration thing here. Trump is promising to deport millions of illegal immigrants (by current estimates there are about 11 million of them). And, look, I'm not a professional economist, but I think it's reasonably easy to guess what happens when you remove millions of people of working age from the labor pool. Again, this is likely to be inflationary (less workers available, so pay and, thus, costs, go up) and recessionary (fewer consumers buying things) at the same time.

PUBLIC HEALTH

With a knowledgeable public health expert like RFK Jr. leading the government's public health efforts, what could possibly go wr… sorry, couldn't finish that with a straight face. Yeah, Trump's gone off the deep end public health-wise ever since the public health people kept pointing out how badly he was screwing up his last major public health emergency, so now he's only listening to quacks and nut jobs.

The odds are pretty good that vaccines are on the target list and the administration will reduce or eliminate programs that encourage them. It's a good bet that, in the next decade or so, we'll see a resurgence of diseases like measles and polio that we thought we'd eradicated. Of course, if we get another pandemic like Covid, I'd bet on a high body count and massive economic impact as well.

We're also likely to see more and more women dying due to pregnancy-related complications. Biden was pushing hard to enforce a federal law that requires hospitals to save women's lives, but it's doubtful that Trump will keep doing that. He'll also likely not enforce any other protections and allow even stronger crackdowns on abortion in states that are eager to do so.

MINORITIES

If you're not a straight, white, cisgender, Christian man, things are likely to get a lot worse for you over the next four years. Look for the administration to take every opportunity to attack gay and trans people and to promote Christianity over other beliefs. The Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice is also likely to be neutered, as it has been under every Republican administration since at least Reagan, so many states will happily violate the rights of racial minorities without any federal pushback. The same is true of laws and regulations that protect women.

Beyond the official, though, we also have to face the societal effects of another Trump Presidency. Despite the loud protestations of his supporters, Trump is beloved among the racist far-right, and for good reason. His administration borrowed heavily from their ideas and their language and even used their personnel and there's no reason to expect a second term to be any different. There is a reason that right-wing terror surged in our country in Trump's first term and it'll probably do the same now.

Expect more shootings of black and brown people and more attacks on Jews and Jewish places of worship. The racists believe the President is on their side and he's given them no reason to think otherwise.

THE NEXT ELECTION

All right, I'm going out on a limb here and this is my longest range projection, but it's a fairly reasonable bet that Democrats will take/retake the House of Representatives in 2026. I can confidently predict this because the party that controls the presidency has lost House seats in nearly every election since the Great Depression. Based on current results (which may change as western states count more votes), the Republicans will have a 4 vote margin in the House and the average midterm loss is 27 seats. Heck, they lost 47 seats in 2018 the last time Trump was in office. Even the Democrats who had a good year in 2022 still lost 10 seats. Seems like a pretty good bet.

As for the Senate, that's a bit harder to predict. At the moment, Republicans will have anywhere from 52 to 54 seats when all the votes are counted from this election. Based on the 2020 Senate elections map (that's the class of Senators that will be up for re-election in 2026), I'd count anywhere from 2-4 seats that the Democrats might be able to flip, the rest are probably safe. So is it possible that Democrats could retake the Senate in '26? Absolutely. Is it likely? Good question. Ask me in a year or so.

CONCLUSION

It's likely that life in America is going to get worse over the next year or two, how much worse depends a lot on how we react. At best, we'll likely face further inflation (every economic policy Trump has voiced support for is inflationary), increased sickness and disease, and increased attacks on the lives and well-beings of anyone who isn't a straight, white, cisgender, Christian man. At worst, well, all of those things but much more intense.

If we're fortunate, Democrats will take the House and serve as a much-needed check on the worst impulses of President-elect Trump. If not, at least the next election will likely do it, though a good deal of damage will be done between now and then.

[adragonprinceswhore]

My country is finally FINALLY seeing the light at the end of the tunnel after being hit significantly by the pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine and now I have to watch economic experts predict a third recession/inflation crisis if Trump implements his economic policies

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Mike Luckovich:: GOP strategy in its totality

* * * * *

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

September 18, 2024

Heather Cox Richardson

Sep 19, 2024

Today, at a White House reception in celebration of Hispanic Heritage Month, President Joe Biden said: "We don't demonize immigrants. We don't single them out for attacks. We don't believe they're poisoning the blood of the country. We're a nation of immigrants, and that's why we're so damn strong."

Biden’s celebration of the country’s heritage might have doubled as a celebration of the success of his approach to piloting the economy out of the ravages of the pandemic. Today the Fed cut interest rates a half a point, a dramatic cut indicating that it considers inflation to be under control. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has maintained that it would be possible to slow inflation without causing a recession—a so-called soft landing—and she appears to have been vindicated.

Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell said: “The labor market is in solid condition, and our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there. You can say that about the whole economy: The US economy is in good shape. It’s growing at a solid pace, inflation is coming down. The labor market is at a strong pace. We want to keep it there. That’s what we’re doing.”

Powell, whom Trump first appointed to his position, said, “We do our work to serve all Americans. We’re not serving any politician, any political figure, any cause, any issue, nothing. It’s just maximum employment and price stability on behalf of all Americans.”

Powell was anticipating accusations from Trump that his cutting of rates was an attempt to benefit Harris before the election. Indeed, Jeff Stein of the Washington Post reported that Trump advisor Steven Moore called the move “jaw-dropping. There's no reason they couldn't do 25 now and 25 right after the election. Why not wait till then?” Moore added, "I'm not saying [the] reduction isn't justified—it may well be and they have more data than I do. But i just think, 'why now?’” Alabama senator Tommy Tuberville called the cut “shamelessly political.” 

The New Yorker’s Philip Gourevitch noted that “Trump has been begging officials worldwide not to do the right thing for years to help rig the election for him—no deal in Gaza, no defense of Ukraine, no Kremlin hostages release, no border deal, no continuing resolution, no interest rate cuts etc—just sabotage & subterfuge.”

That impulse to focus on regaining power rather than serving the country was at least part of what was behind Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance’s lie about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio. That story has gotten even darker as it turns out Vance and Trump received definitive assurances on September 9 that the rumor was false, but Trump ran with it in the presidential debate of September 10 anyway. Now, although it has been made very clear—including by Republican Ohio governor Mike DeWine—that the Haitian immigrants in Springfield are there legally, Vance told a reporter today that he personally considers the programs under which they came illegal, so he is still “going to call [a Haitian migrant] an illegal alien.”

The lies about those immigrants have so derailed the Springfield community with bomb threats and public safety concerns that when the Trump campaign suggested Trump was planning a visit there, the city’s Republican mayor, Rob Rue, backed by DeWine, threw cold water on the idea. “It would be an extreme strain on our resources. So it’d be fine with me if they decided not to make that visit,” Rue said. Nonetheless, tonight, Trump told a crowd in Long Island, New York, that he will go to Springfield within the next two weeks. 

The false allegation against Haitian immigrants has sparked outrage, but it has accomplished one thing for the campaign, anyway: it has gotten Trump at least to speak about immigration—which was the issue they planned to campaign on—rather than Hannibal Lecter, electric boats, and sharks, although he continues to insist that “everyone is agreeing that I won the Debate with Kamala.” Trump, Vance, and Republican lawmakers are now talking more about policies.

In the presidential debate of September 10, Trump admitted that after nine years of promising he would release a new and better healthcare plan than the Affordable Care Act in just a few weeks, all he really had were “concepts of a plan.” Vance has begun to explain to audiences that he intends to separate people into different insurance pools according to their health conditions and risk levels. That business model meant that insurers could refuse to insure people with pre-existing conditions, and overturning it was a key driver of the ACA.

Senate and House Republicans told Peter Sullivan of Axios that if they regain control of the government, they will work to get rid of the provision in the Inflation Reduction Act that permits the government to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies over drug prices. Negotiations on the first ten drugs, completed in August, will lower the cost of those drugs enough to save taxpayers $6 billion a year, while those enrolled in Medicare will save $1.5 billion in out-of-pocket expenses. 

Yesterday Trump promised New Yorkers that he would restore the state and local tax deduction (SALT) that he himself capped at $10,000 in his 2017 tax cuts. In part, the cap was designed to punish Democratic states that had high taxes and higher government services, but now he wants to appeal to voters in those same states. On CNBC, host Joe Kernan pointed out that this would blow up the deficit, but House speaker Mike Johnson said that the party would nonetheless consider such a measure because it would continue to stand behind less regulation and lower taxes.

In a conversation with Arkansas governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, his former press secretary, Trump delivered another stream of consciousness commentary in which he appeared to suggest that he would lower food prices by cutting imports. Economics professor Justin Wolfers noted: “I'm exhausted even saying it, but blocking supply won't reduce prices, and it's not even close.” Sarah Longwell of The Bulwark added, “Tell me more about why you have to vote for Trump because of his ‘policies.’”

Trump has said he supports in vitro fertilization, or IVF, as have a number of Republican lawmakers, but today, 44 Republican senators once again blocked the Senate from passing a measure protecting it. The procedure is in danger from state laws establishing “fetal personhood,” which give a fertilized egg all the rights of a human being as established by the Fourteenth Amendment. That concept is in the 2024 Republican Party platform.

Trump has also demanded that Republicans in Congress shut down the government unless a continuing resolution to fund the government contains the so-called SAVE Act requiring people to show proof of citizenship when registering to vote. Speaker Johnson continues to suggest that undocumented immigrants vote in elections, but it is illegal for even documented noncitizens to do so, and Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the nonprofit American Immigration Council notes that even the right-wing Heritage Foundation has found only 12 cases of such illegal voting in the past 40 years.

Johnson brought the continuing resolution bill with the SAVE Act up for a vote today. It failed by a vote of 202 to 220. If the House and then the Senate don’t pass a funding bill, the government will shut down on October 1.

Republican endorsements of the Harris-Walz ticket continue to pile up. On Monday, six-term representative Bob Inglis (R-SC) told the Charleston City Paper that “Donald Trump is a clear and present danger to the republic” and said he would vote for Harris. “If Donald Trump loses, that would be a good thing for the Republican Party,” Inglis said. “Because then we could have a Republican rethink and get a correction.” 

George W. Bush’s attorney general Alberto Gonzales, conservative columnist George Will, more than 230 former officials for presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, and 17 former staff members for Ronald Reagan have all recently added their names to the list of those supporting Harris. Today more than 100 Republican former members of Congress and national security officials who served in Republican administrations endorsed Harris, saying they “firmly oppose the election of Donald Trump.” They cited his chaotic governance, his praising of enemies and undermining allies, his politicizing the military and disparaging veterans, his susceptibility to manipulation by Russian president Vladimir Putin, and his attempt to overthrow democracy. They praised Harris for her consistent championing of “the rule of law, democracy, and our constitutional principles.” 

Yesterday, singer-songwriters Billie Eilish, who has 119 million followers on Instagram, and Finneas, who has 4.2 million, asked people to register and to vote for Harris and Walz. “Vote like your life depends on it,” Eilish said, “because it does.”

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[contemplatingoutlander]

Biden goes positive. Can voters handle it?

Jennifer Rubin discusses Biden's new positive ad. If the question is, "Can voters handle" Biden's positive ad, the answer is, it's about time the Democrats told the story of Biden's successes to counteract the relentless disinformation about Biden coming from the right.

But even more important than that, Rubin brings home the fact that neofascists and demagogues NEED people to believe that their nation is falling apart and ONLY the Dear Leader can fix it. That's why it is particularly important to counteract Trump's and the GOP's dystopian disinformation about America under Biden.

Here are some excerpts from Rubin's column.

Biden’s ad, “Fought Back,” reminds us how bad things were under his predecessor, touts Biden’s economic accomplishments and accuses Republicans (while displaying Trump’s picture) of running America down. A list of bipartisan accomplishments, such as the bipartisan infrastructure law and the Chips bill, refutes the notion that the United States is paralyzed or incapable of solving its problems. [...] This message embodies Biden’s endemic optimism: “We just have to remember who we are. We’re the United States of America. And there’s nothing — nothing beyond our capacity — if we do it together.” Moreover, it rebukes Trump’s negativity, in effect saying: Refusing to credit the improvements in the economy is tantamount to slamming Americans and discrediting their hard work. (The ad shows Biden delivering one of his favorite lines: “It’s never, ever been a good bet to bet against America.”) [...] Biden stands ready to explain how his agenda — “Bidenomics” — brought us from fears of a pandemic recession to recovery. With unemployment and inflation in decline and wages rising, the public finally might be more amenable to hearing an uplifting message. Biden would be foolish not to take credit for gains achieved as a result of smart policy and bipartisan legislative wins. However, Biden’s ad does something more than present an economic argument. He’s asking a larger question: Do we really want to go back to the trauma of the Trump years? He is betting that voters, even if they are uncertain about the future, don’t want to wallow in anger, fear and pessimism. He offers not only a choice between two policies but also two different visions, which are miles apart in tone. [...] Historians tell us that fascism arises in a mood of “cultural pessimism” that fosters a demand to entirely remake government and casts the authoritarian strongman as a messianic-like figure who can arrest decline. Without cultural, economic and political ruin and ensuing panic, there is no crisis to quell. By contrast, if a democracy is producing real gains and people see improvement, voters will be less inclined to throw the entire system overboard to follow the cult leader. No wonder hyperbole, fearmongering and hysteria are part and parcel of the MAGA message. [...] For Trump, the present is always bleak; hence, we have to go back to the past to make America great again — and rely on him to fix things. Biden, therefore, has the task of not simply correcting the economic record but also of diffusing — perhaps mocking — Trump’s excessive negativity. Things are bad for Trump, but they need not be bad for the rest of us. We’ll be just fine if we keep our heads about us, look at the facts and trust in ourselves. That’s not a bad pitch for Biden or, for that matter, any democracy trying to ward off a hysterical demagogue. [color/emphasis added]

[tomorrowusa]

Four years ago today (March 13th), then President Donald Trump got around to declaring a national state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic. The administration had been downplaying the danger to the United States for 51 days since the first US infection was confirmed on January 22nd.

From an ABC News article dated 25 February 2020...

CDC warns Americans of 'significant disruption' from coronavirus

Until now, health officials said they'd hoped to prevent community spread in the United States. But following community transmissions in Italy, Iran and South Korea, health officials believe the virus may not be able to be contained at the border and that Americans should prepare for a "significant disruption." This comes in contrast to statements from the Trump administration. Acting Department of Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf said Tuesday the threat to the United States from coronavirus "remains low," despite the White House seeking $1.25 billion in emergency funding to combat the virus. Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told CNBC’s Kelly Evans on “The Exchange” Tuesday evening, "We have contained the virus very well here in the U.S." [ ... ] House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the request "long overdue and completely inadequate to the scale of this emergency." She also accused President Trump of leaving "critical positions in charge of managing pandemics at the National Security Council and the Department of Homeland Security vacant." "The president's most recent budget called for slashing funding for the Centers for Disease Control, which is on the front lines of this emergency. And now, he is compounding our vulnerabilities by seeking to ransack funds still needed to keep Ebola in check," Pelosi said in a statement Tuesday morning. "Our state and local governments need serious funding to be ready to respond effectively to any outbreak in the United States. The president should not be raiding money that Congress has appropriated for other life-or-death public health priorities." She added that lawmakers in the House of Representatives "will swiftly advance a strong, strategic funding package that fully addresses the scale and seriousness of this public health crisis." Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also called the Trump administration's request "too little too late." "That President Trump is trying to steal funds dedicated to fight Ebola -- which is still considered an epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo -- is indicative of his towering incompetence and further proof that he and his administration aren't taking the coronavirus crisis as seriously as they need to be," Schumer said in a statement.

A reminder that Trump had been leaving many positions vacant – part of a Republican strategy to undermine the federal government.

Here's a picture from that ABC piece from a nearly empty restaurant in San Francisco's Chinatown. The screen displays a Trump tweet still downplaying COVID-19 with him seeming more concerned about the effect of the Dow Jones on his re-election bid.

People were not buying Trump's claims but they were buying PPE.

I took this picture at CVS on February 26th that year.

The stock market which Trump in his February tweet claimed looked "very good" was tanking on March 12th – the day before his state of emergency declaration.

Trump succeeded in sending the US economy into recession much faster than George W. Bush did at the end of his term – quite a feat!. (As an aside, every recession in the US since 1981 has been triggered by Republican presidents.)

Of course Trump never stopped trying to downplay the pandemic nor did he ever take responsibility for it. The US ended up with the highest per capita death rate of any technologically advanced country.

Precious time was lost while Trump dawdled. Orange on this map indicates COVID infections while red indicates COVID deaths. At the time Trump declared a state of emergency, the virus had already spread to 49 states.

The United States could have done far better and it certainly had the tools to do so.

The Obama administration had limited the number of US cases of Ebola to under one dozen during that pandemic in the 2010s. Based on their success, they compiled a guide on how the federal government could limit future pandemics.

Obama team left pandemic playbook for Trump administration, officials confirm

Of course Trump ignored it.

Unlike those boxes of nuclear secrets in Trump's bathroom, the Obama pandemic limitation document is not classified. Anybody can read it – even if Trump didn't. This copy comes from the Stanford University Libraries.

TOWARDS EPIDEMIC PREDICTION: FEDERAL EFFORTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN OUTBREAK MODELING

Feel free to share this post with anybody who still feels nostalgic about the Trump White House years!

[eugenedebs1920]

Trust me! There’s so very little I’d want to share similarities with when it comes to maga. I also have faith in the institutions that serve as the bedrock of our democracy. What I do not have faith in is Donald Trump’s integrity, honesty, or willingness to play by the rules. This is the 3rd article I’ve ran across that seemed credible. I checked the site, small independent journalism, no red flags when checking on its credibility. I’m not saying the election was rigged! While at the same time I’m not saying it wasn’t.

The thing is… We all saw that train wreck of a campaign. We all saw the apparent cognitive decline. We saw Trump ostracize, alienate, and discriminate against SO MANY different voting blocks. Saying, “They’re eating the cats, they’re eating the dogs, they’re eating the pets!”. He was called out on, and we saw and heard, him echo words of that German dictator from WWII, Mussolini and Stalin. We heard the promises to be a dictator on day one. His heavy lean towards authoritarianism. Him calling for the licenses of CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, The Washington Post, The NY Times, pretty much everyone except OAN, Newsmax and Fox News. His calls for across the board tariffs were labeled as detrimental, and recession bound, by nearly every major economic think tank. He got DESTROYED during the debate. We saw hundreds of prominent Republican figures come out in opposition to Trump. Whole movements to ensure his defeat. Almost every single person in his previous administration say they wouldn’t support him, including, for good reasons, his own vice president.

The man’s an American traitor! We all saw the lead up to Jan 6th, then what occurred. I made it my life’s goal, as well as many others, on many platforms to remind everyone of it, and the fake electors scheme, and the theft and retention of classified documents, long after he knew he had last the election. The phone calls with Putin. The sending of vital pandemic relief supplies to Putin in the hype of the epidemic. All the f*ckin Russian ties. I know a lot of Americans ain’t that bright but. Really!? No one else put that together!?

Put on top of that his pressuring of Brad Raffensperger to “find 11,780 votes” and all the conspiring behind that. Not to mention the rape and definition charges. Not to mention his company being convicted of fraud. Not to mention HIM being convicted of fraud and a convicted felon because of it.

Add to that the strange bromance with Elon Musk the owner of Tesla. Trump HATES renewable anything!! He would go off about batteries and sharks habitually! Windmills!! Hates em! Talking all kinds of sh*t on electric cars, saying they would just run out of power, that there wasn’t any charging stations, then if there was you’d be there for hours, that the army wanted electric tanks, typical Trump fabrications. Just ALL the sudden him and the richest man in the world, who just happens to be in constant contact with Putin, who just happened to call for Ukraine to surrender, who just happened to buy a major social media platform, again or whatever. Musk who just happens to own Starlink, who just happens to offer free internet service in nearly every swing state.

On top of all that the numbers just don’t add up. You’re saying that 400,000 people, went in the voting booth, ONLY voted Trump and just walked out? Didn’t vote for the Republican senator, didn’t vote for the Republican representative, didn’t vote on any of the referendums or bills? Just “bullet” voted trump? Even dumbass Tommy Tuberville said in an interview, trying to accuse the left of fuckery, “It’s just weird how, the Democratic candidate, in a state Trump won, would be elected to congress”. Yea! Sure is “weird”, Tommy!

Then, the cocky statements from Trump and the right. I was watching this sh*t like, ‘these MFers are up to something’. Then, Him saying numerous times, he doesn’t need the votes. His “little secret” with Mike Johnson. The straight arrogance from Kevin Roberts, not only in publishing project 2025 but in his statements like, “there’s a second American revolution coming” leading to “and it will be bloodless, if the left allows it to be”. Then, there’s Joe Rogan, who lets it slip on his pod that Elon had an app on his phone where he knew the election results 4 hours before anyone else. Then why did he tell Tucker Carlson he would end up in jail?

You’re telling me, that guy, running that “prestigious” a campaign, with all the shinanigans after and during his first administration, a felon, hated by his own party, that fuckin guy won all 7 swing states, which hasn’t been done by anyone in 40 fuckin years, that guy, who literally said at a town hall, “no more questions, who wants to hear anymore damn questions” then proceeded to sway on stage for 40 mins to tunes, that guy won the popular vote too!? The popular vote that a Republican has only one once since Reagan!? That fuckin guy won all 7 swing states and the popular!? I don’t know if I can buy that.

I guess what I’m getting at is, forensic audits and hand recounts in the swing states would put all that unease to rest. It should be done, and soon! Trump has cheated at everything he’s done in the past, why would that change now?

[impishtubist]

There is something about turning 18 in 2020 that has been really, really awful. This is not how I wanted to start off my adulthood

😭 I'm so sorry, anon. It truly is awful, and I am giving you a virtual hug. If it helps at all, every generation goes through this. There are those who turned 18 in 2001, during 9/11 and the start of the war. There are those who turned 18 in 2008, during the start of the recession. Others turned 18 in 2016, and witnessed Trump rise to power the first time. You unfortunately turned 18 in 2020, during the start of the pandemic, and if you went to college right away, now you're graduating at a time when Trump is rising to power again.

I don't say this to minimize what you're going through. I just want you to know that you aren't alone; others have experienced their adulthoods starting off in horrible ways. It fucking sucks.

The one thing I will say is to build a community for yourself locally in whatever way you can. When I moved to my new city, I got involved in a lot of different Meetup groups with the intention of not only making friends, but building a network. Just meet people locally, make friends with them. You never know who you'll meet who will become an asset to you later on. Now, I know that if my car breaks down in the middle of the night, I have someone to call. If I have a repair issue at my house, I know someone who can help. If I need a shoulder to cry on, I can text someone and they'll be at my house in half an hour. Yesterday, I had people in my community reaching out to check on me. There are also mutual aid organizations near you that you could volunteer for. You can build a community in so many different ways.

Having online friends and an online community is important, yes, but when things happen in your city, it's going to be the people you know in real life who can come to your aid (just look at North Carolina's communities after the storm - they had no access to power or Internet, and had to rely on who they knew locally to help).

So that's my advice. Start building your network. We're on our own now, we have a government that's actively working against our interests, so we need to rely on each other instead.

[amaditalks]

Harris could have chosen to win but she simply chose to lose. It's not hard to beat Trump, it's comically easy, actually. You can convince yourself that it wasn't her choice to lose, but the fact of the matter is that she deliberately lost voters in key swing states. Trump's vote amounts remained mostly the same. Harris lost 10-15 million votes from Biden. Black women voted for her in less amounts than they did Biden or Hillary.

Had she not done genocide, she would've won. No matter how much you try and convince yourself otherwise. Now you have Trump. Accept your choices. Live with them. Because the consequences will remain. This is how it's going to be for the forseeable future because democrats chose to make it this way. You can learn from this or just give up and die i guess.

So people know, this person is following me out of the comments on another post where they have repeatedly asserted that Kamala Harris lost because she “did genocide.“ Apparently, this person believes that Kamala Harris is simultaneously the US vice president and the Prime Minister of Israel — amongst other things that they are deeply confused about.

But let’s be really very clear. It is not easy to beat Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton got more votes than Donald Trump and still did not beat Donald Trump. The only reason Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in 2020 is because of how badly Trump mishandled Covid. Had Biden not entered the 2020 race and the Democratic nominee had ended up being another woman, Trump would have won in 2020.

The voters who mobilized to create the Biden victory were the sometimes voters. The mushy middle that doesn’t pay attention to much until it’s as big as a recession or a global pandemic, and votes or stays at home based on their personal satisfaction with their own lives, not based on issues.

Those voters came out to vote for Biden because they were personally dissatisfied with the course of the pandemic. Those voters either stayed home this year or voted for Trump because they were personally dissatisfied with their finances, which they mistakenly believe is the same thing as “the economy.”

Also, as explained to you in those comments, only 4% of voters said that the situation Israel and Palestine factored into their vote. The overwhelming issue that motivated people was “the economy“ for whatever they understand that to be.

Of that 4% who weighed the Israel-Palestine issue in their decision making, the majority voted for Harris.

You can repeat what is, at this point, an intentional lie about this issue being the reason for Kamala Harris’ loss until the day you literally depart this earth, but it will still be a lie that does not bear any resemblance to the actual facts around this election.

If at some point you wish to get in touch with honesty and integrity, that will be a positive change in your life and the lives of everyone who has the misfortune of encountering you. 

[softmatzohtruther]

while i do feel bad for the people in their 20s who have to spend the rest of their early adulthood under a second trump administration, please spare a thought for the late 30-somethings who grew up under two full Bush terms and the Iraq war, graduated high school just in time to take on record breaking college debt, and then get out into the "great recession," who then barely had time to get their adult lives on track to do normal things like have a stable income and saving for homeownership, only to get snookered by trump the first time, the pandemic, and now trump round two

i cannot even begin to describe the level of exhaustion i am experiencing right now. i am almost delirious from it

[eaudrey35]

What I can say is that the white women white men Hispanic and Asian communities and black men walking around smiling today. In one year from now u won't be smiling. I can guarantee u that we will be n a recession from Trump Musk and RFK policies we will be going thru some pandemic level out break due to RFK. Unions will not exist. We will b having supply chain issues due to Trump mass Deportation. Tariffs will be making prices unbearable. America will be getting everything they voted for n a year from now. Just watch. U were warned by Elon Musk that hard times r ahead temporarily and he never gave a time frame for what is temporary. So remember those smiles u have today because n a yr from now they won't be there.

[foreverlogical]

It was a time of fear and chaos four years ago.

The death count was mounting as COVID-19 spread. Financial markets were panicked. Oil prices briefly went negative. The Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rates to combat the sudden recession. And the U.S. government went on a historic borrowing spree—adding trillions to the national debt—to keep families and businesses afloat.

But as Donald Trump recalled that moment at a recent rally, the former president exuded pride.

“We had the greatest economy in history,” the Republican told his Wisconsin audience. “The 30-year mortgage rate was at a record low, the lowest ever recorded ... 2.65%, that’s what your mortgage rates were.”

The question of who can best steer the U.S. economy could be a deciding factor in who wins November’s presidential election. While an April Gallup poll found that Americans were most likely to say that immigration is the country's top problem, the economy in general and inflation were also high on the list.

Trump may have an edge over President Joe Biden on key economic concerns, according to an April poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs. The survey found that Americans were more likely to say that as president, Trump helped the country with job creation and cost of living. Nearly six in 10 Americans said that Biden’s presidency hurt the country on the cost of living.

But the economic numbers expose a far more complicated reality during Trump's time in the White House. His tax cuts never delivered the promised growth. His budget deficits surged and then stayed relatively high under Biden. His tariffs and trade deals never brought back all of the lost factory jobs.

And there was the pandemic, an event that caused historic job losses for which Trump accepts no responsibility as well as low inflation—for which Trump takes full credit.

If anything, the economy during Trump's presidency never lived up to his own hype.

DECENT (NOT EXCEPTIONAL) GROWTH

Trump assured the public in 2017 that the U.S. economy with his tax cuts would grow at “3%,” but he added, “I think it could go to 4, 5, and maybe even 6%, ultimately.”

If the 2020 pandemic is excluded, growth after inflation averaged 2.67% under Trump, according to figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Include the pandemic-induced recession and that average drops to an anemic 1.45%.

By contrast, growth during the second term of then-President Barack Obama averaged 2.33%. So far under Biden, annual growth is averaging 3.4%.

MORE GOVERNMENT DEBT

Trump also assured the public that his tax cuts would pay for themselves because of stronger growth. The cuts were broad but disproportionately favored corporations and those with extreme wealth.

The tax cuts signed into law in 2017 never fulfilled Trump's promises on deficit reduction.

According to the Office of Management and Budget, the deficit worsened to $779 billion in 2018. The Congressional Budget Office had forecasted a deficit of $563 billion before the tax cuts, meaning the tax cuts increased borrowing by $216 billion that first year. In 2019, the deficit rose to $984 billion, nearly $300 billion more than what the CBO had forecast.

Then the pandemic happened and with a flurry of government aid, the resulting deficit topped $3.1 trillion. That borrowing enabled the government to make direct payments to individuals and small businesses as the economy was in lockdown, often increasing bank accounts and making many feel better off even though the economy was in a recession.

Deficits have also run high under Biden, as he signed into law a third round of pandemic aid and other initiatives to address climate change, build infrastructure and invest in U.S. manufacturing. His budget deficits: $2.8 trillion (2021), $1.38 trillion (2022), and $1.7 trillion (2023).

The CBO estimated in a report issued Wednesday that the extension of parts of Trump’s tax cuts set to expire after 2025 would add another $4.6 trillion to the national debt through the year 2034.

LOW INFLATION (BUT NOT ALWAYS FOR GOOD REASONS)

Inflation was much lower under Trump, never topping an annual rate of 2.4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The annual rate reached as high as 8% in 2022 under Biden and is currently at 3.4%.

There were three big reasons why inflation was low during Trump's presidency: the legacy of the 2008 financial crisis, Federal Reserve actions, and the coronavirus pandemic.

Trump entered the White House with inflation already low, largely because of the slow recovery from the Great Recession, when financial markets collapsed and millions of people lost their homes to foreclosure.

The inflation rate barely averaged more than 1% during Obama's second term as the Fed struggled to push up growth. Still, the economy was expanding without overheating.

But in the first three years of Trump's presidency, inflation averaged 2.1%, roughly close to the Fed's target. Still, the Fed began to hike its own benchmark rate to keep inflation low at the central bank's own 2% target. Trump repeatedly criticized the Fed because he wanted to juice growth despite the risks of higher prices.

Then the pandemic hit.

Inflation sank and the Fed slashed rates to sustain the economy during lockdowns.

When Trump celebrates historically low mortgage rates, he's doing so because the economy was weakened by the pandemic. Similarly, gasoline prices fell below an average of $2 a gallon because no one was driving in April 2020 as the pandemic spread.

FEWER JOBS

The United States lost 2.7 million jobs during Trump's presidency, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If the pandemic months are excluded, he added 6.7 million jobs.

By contrast, 15.4 million jobs were added during Biden's presidency. That's 5.1 million more jobs than what the CBO forecasted he would add before his coronavirus relief and other policies became law—a sign of how much he boosted the labor market.

Both candidates have repeatedly promised to bring back factory jobs. Between 2017 and the middle of 2019, Trump added 461,000 manufacturing jobs. But the gains began to stall and then turned into layoffs during the pandemic, with the Republican posting a loss of 178,000 jobs.

So far, the U.S. economy has added 773,000 manufacturing jobs during Biden's presidency.

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