#take Trump off the ballot
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suzilight · 10 months ago
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25 of the world’s greatest Civil War legal scholars have banded together and wrote to the United States Supreme Court that the drafters of the 14th Amendment in 1868 would be SHOCKED that Trump was not INSTANTLY DISQUALIFIED and banned from the ballot by his actions on January 6th.
VIDEO Michael Popok of Legal AF explains their key historical arguments and why they should defeat Trump’s half baked theories that a president can’t be disqualified without an act of congress.
READ THE BRIEF SENT TO US SUPREME COURT
2/1/24 This gives me hope. Thank you
I'm sharing it everywhere. It's the most positive thing I've seen in recent years.
14th Amendment, Section 3 reads:
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
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yeahiwasintheshit · 11 months ago
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Yes... keep it goin!!!
Unfortunately the supreme cunts will prob reverse all these rulings but I’m gonna celebrate now
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qqueenofhades · 11 months ago
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Yooooo Cali is making moves to get Dur Orange Fuhrer off our ballot!
Granted nothing will be set til the New Year/we see what happens with Colorado's version but nonetheless I'm so proud of my state!
Aha, so I saw. Apparently there are also lawsuits underway in 16 other states, which.... I'm still 100% sure we will have to endure another election with him (GOD WHY NO GOD PLEASE), but it sure would be FUCKING NICE if even a few of them worked, especially in purple states. Obviously he wasn't going to win CA or CO anyway, but. Yeah.
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halfblood-princes-crown · 10 days ago
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CAN U PLS ANSWER I JUST WANT TO KNOW YOUR ALIVE! NOBODY IS ANSWERING ME IF THEY HEARD FROM U
I’m fine, nonnie! I just needed some time off social media!
After everything hit me, I was seeing some horrible shit on social media. Luckily, all I’m seeing now is stupidity and people who fucked around entering the “Find Out” stage. Very fun.🤩
Also, nobody is obligated to check on me, nonnie. But thank you for doing so, that’s so sweet 🥲
You sent me a lot of asks…I’m sorry I scared you, bby.
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is-the-owl-video-cute · 4 months ago
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god the world must be so beautiful from behind rose colored glasses so thick you can excuse genocide abroad, violence and inhumane treatment of immigrants at home, a somehow even WORSE policy for COVID that lead to thousands more deaths, did NOTHING about the overturning of Roe v. Wade even though it happened TWO YEARS AGO already, and an increase in police violence and brutality towards black people.
Aw, but guys, guys look peepaw forgave the student loan debt of like ten people, so all that’s fine. Who cares how many black and brown people died under him, he forgave a debt here and there so it’s fine.
I mean, who cares that he’s so far into senility he needs visual aids to study so he knows how to leave a podium? Who cares if he barely has any awareness that he’s the president right now? I mean sure he called Lewinsky “President putin” and didn’t notice trump doing the fast part of rap god in that debate to get as many lies out as possible, guys it’s ok! Biden expanded NATO! Aren’t you happy? Don’t you feel safe? Come on, we can trust the weird hair sniffing pervert who can only hold on a coherent conversation about golf at this point, but hey! He’s not trump so no matter how many policies he shares with trump and how severely they are implemented, his name is Biden so it’s ok!
Who wouldn’t trust Biden? I mean, sure he said in 2020 he would be a single-term President and pass the torch to another democrat for the next term and all, but hey!
Who cares if he lies through his teeth, he’s just a politician he can’t help that!
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Me, too! And you can't convince me otherwise.
#Of course the pfp for the oop is the whitest man I’ve ever seen#who wants to place bets if he’s cishet too?#making him completely unaffected by any of the mess Biden has made#this entire post is fully irrelevant since Biden has a snowball’s chance in hell at winning now#can the Democratic Party stop sucking him off and just pick a different nominee because they’re tossing trump a soft ball here#no one likes him except white libs and there’s a reason for that#’oh but trump will make project 2025 happen’#what has Biden done to stop that#Yes trump would endorse it more but Biden does not care about stopping any part of it#that’s why he hasn’t made any move to protect the right to an abortion#because at the end of the day he’s a Catholic fundamentalist who doesn’t believe anyone should have recreational sex#he doesn’t care about women#he doesn’t care about queers#he doesn’t care about BIPOC#he is not and never has been a friend to anyone but white conservative Americans#he’s only on the dem ballot out of nepotism#And he was only chosen as Obama’s vp because it made racist Americans feel safer#because they figured the racist white man would keep Obama in line#because Biden was known for his pro-segregation viewpoints as recently as 20 years ago#i know people on here are too young to realize this#but Biden has always been looked at as a conservative#but some of you happily eat rat poison from the palm of his hand while he pats your head saying it’s alright Jack#because a blue colored tie is all it takes for you morons to believe someone is your ally
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scrollypoly · 20 days ago
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Ok, so with all these posts going around aboht election interference and calling for a recount, i wanted to find evidence that weren't twitter screenshots
Tl;dr - bomb threats yes, 3 fires at ballot boxes (1 had damaged ballots and theyre fixing it), 20 million unaccounted votes is FALSE, this shit takes time to count so be patient, cuz they are STILL COUNTING
Bomb threats at polling places:
This claim is legit, as well as the source being from russian email domains. No actual bombs were placed or set off.
Burning ballot boxes:
3 incidents of burning ballot boxes have been confirmed for this election in Portland, Oregon and one in Vancouver, Washington, both of which are suspected to be from the same individual. Republican and Democrat officials have spoken out against this, ballot boxes were guarded after the incidents started, and fire suppression systems inside the ballot boxes saved the majority of the ballots, except for one box where 488 ballots were damaged due to a malfunction of the fire suppression system.
Fires were also confirmed in Arizona by a man who apparently just wanted to be arrested and had no political motivations.
No fires were confirmed in Georgia, despite repeated claims that most of the fires were in Georgia. Georgia changed their election laws in 2021 in regards to absentee votes. Ballot boxes have been notably targetted for election conspiracy and mistrust. Take this into account when you see outcry about ballot boxes in any way.
Votes not being counted:
The screenshots im seeing particularly note California, which is the state with the largest amount of registered voters. California is also dealing with massive wildfires rn. Its gonna take a couple days, and the election isnt officially over yet. Calm down
20 million unaccounted votes:
Yall . . .
This shit takes time. Theyre not "throwing your ballots out" or "deliberately not counting votes". Be so for real
Some of this shit is valid, and should probably be known. Some of this shit is making yall sound like trumpers in 2020. Be smart. Have critical thinking.
If youre gonna reblog or comment with claims i better see credible evidence to back your claims up or youre getting blocked
Edited to add a TL;DR, no other changes
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corporationsarepeople · 5 months ago
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When protesters marched in Washington after the killing of George Floyd, Donald Trump asked General Milley why the troops couldn’t just shoot them, suggesting maybe just “in the leg.”
Milley replied that he could not, because that would be illegal.
The Supreme Court has now ruled that it no longer will be, at least certainly not for the President to order it. And he can pardon the general that carries it out, and fire the ones that refuse.
If that doesn’t scare you, then I guess you can keep talking about stupid things like taking Biden off the ballot. If it does, then maybe focus on making sure it doesn’t happen, pressuring for Supreme Court reform, and saving this fucking country.
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oranges-are-rad · 11 months ago
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I don’t want to go through another election year. I don’t want to go through another election year. I don’t want to go through another election year. I don’t want to go through another election year. I DON’T WANT TO GO THROUGH ANOTHER ELECTION YEAR
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thevalicemultiverse · 11 months ago
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did you see this? trump was taken off the ballot in colorado for leading an insurrection. yeah, it’s weird, you’d think colorado would be ok with *high* crimes
Alice: I suppose Trump couldn't prove he was "blazing it" at the time -- I think that's the right term, anyhow. [shakes head] Nevertheless, if more states could please follow suit...
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tidepoolalgae · 1 year ago
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#the discourse with voting in american politics is so exhausting I really don't wanna have to see all that#considered blacklisting 'vote' and 'voting' for now and I might end up doing that but i also might miss some tumblr polls#and those are a fun thing#like vote for sure there's more than one issue but the meanness toward people for being angry at the current administration is so wack#'but remember to vote blue! the democrats are more likely to listen to you! we live in a two party system you have to be realistic!' okay??#federal dems are so annoying with their whole villain of the week charade and weaponized incompetence can you actually blame people?#imo you're better off convincing people to vote .period. instead of also taking time to shame them into voting blue#in the middle of a time where most americans disagree with the actions of the current administration#like.. is this gonna be the strategy forever?? it's exhausting to do the whole 'but the republican guy is worse!' every. single. time.#if the democrats continue to lose it will be their own fault for not choosing to stand for something#they can blame the voters all they want but maybe they should try wielding power they gain effectively? just a thought#it's tough because they do some good things but then they really drop the ball on others and you're left sitting there like wtf#luckily it does look like some people are putting their foot down.. look at that governor from kentucky that won recently#to be clear you SHOULD vote if you can it's one of your rights in this country and there's so much on ballots besides the presidential race#and it's not like who's president isn't important I'm just ranting because the 'vote blue no matter who' crowd gets on my nerves SO MUCH#the discussion IS worth having.. biden will be better on some things but also others won't change much between biden and trump#and you can't just glance over that stuff like democrats tend to do#the moral grandstanding can get so petty I'm just so tired of seeing dumb internet fights#hot take maybe idk#BLEH#I hate it here#😵‍💫😵‍💫😵‍💫#vent#sorry if you read this and it doesn't make sense I've read too much about us politics to be normal about it
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birdantlers · 15 days ago
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Hey you.
Are you also upset and angry about the election? Are you concerned about the likely election tampering and collusion that won* Trump this election?
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EVERY SINGLE AMERICAN who voted blue in this election needs to do this. Don't lie down and let fascism take hold of this nation even more than it already has.
Call (202) 456-1111 Tuesday—Thursday 11:00AM—3:00PM and demand an investigation.
Check the status of your ballot at vote.org. Report any issues to the DOJ voter fraud hotline: 1-800-253-3931 for those whose ballot isn’t being counted.
Here are some state-specific hotlines as well:
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Here is an in-depth guide to effectively contact your representatives (lik is different from pictures below).
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Here is the submission form to submit concerns the the White House as well as instructions and sample text ideas below (not pasting the actual text as incentive for people to write their own—if you submit a message or multiple messages, make sure there are differences so that nothing gets flagged as spam).
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I'm not advocating for her as some kind of savior; she's a politician, but I also would urge you to consider donating to the Harris-Walz campaign fund which has been updated to include a ballot recount in its terms
There was a longer bit here but I didn't like how it sounded lol. Basically consider it if you want—but contacting reps is more important in this case.
I'm not saying all this to be a shill for a politician who's still a basically-centrist politician at the end of the day. I'm doing this because I'm pissed off and desperate to not see my home become a totalitarian dystopia.
I know that as more time passes, it can feel hopeless to fight. It isn't. January 20th is still months away, but each state has a deadline for vote finalization. If there's a snowball's chance in hell to change anything, we can't let it slip through our fingers.
This is not the time to submit to apathy. The bystander effect is how a movement dies, and when affirmative action has to be done remotely like with contacting reps, it's an even bigger factor.
Don't be these guys
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Call your reps. Track your ballots. Defend and report those ballots if missing, and call/submit those White House comments.
This is no time for half measures. Please reblog
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*more evidence to use in a call/message:
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smallphoenix13 · 10 months ago
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also the “they’re going to respond with violence” point is kind of moot because WE KNOW. they already have. does anyone else remember the insurrection? we were able to combat it then, we can combat it now
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robertreich · 1 year ago
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No Labels Isn't What It Claims to Be
The “No Labels” Party is not what it pretends to be. It’s a front group for Donald Trump.
Now I understand, if you’re sick of the two major parties, you might be intrigued by a party that claims to be a “common sense” alternative that finds the middle ground.
But if you or anyone in your life is planning to vote for No Labels — or any third party — in 2024, please watch and share this video first.
Here are three things you need to know.
First, No Labels is a dark money group with secret far-right donors. Investigative reporting has revealed that they include many of the same Republican donors who have pumped huge sums of money into electing candidates like Trump and Ron DeSantis. They also include the rightwing billionaire Harlan Crow, who spent years secretly treating Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to a lifestyle of the rich and famous.
If the No Labels Party is backed by Trump donors, in an election where Trump is on the ballot, there’s actually a label we should give to “No Labels.” Clearly, they’re a pro-Trump group.
Second, the premise No Labels is based on — that Donald Trump and President Biden are at equally extreme ends of the political spectrum — is preposterous.
Trump has been impeached twice, found by a jury to have committed sexual assault, is facing 91 criminal charges in four separate cases — two of them in connection with an attempt to effectively end American democracy.
There is no “equally extreme” candidate as Trump!
Finally, the structure of the Electoral College means that as a practical matter, a third party only draws votes away from whichever major party candidate is closest to it. No third party candidate has ever won a presidential election.
And in this particular election, when one of the major parties is putting up a candidate who threatens democracy itself, we cannot take the risk.
Donald Trump has already tried to overturn one election and suggested suspending the Constitution to maintain power. It is no exaggeration to say that if he takes the White House again, there may not ever be another free and fair election.
Democracy won by a whisker in the last presidential election. Just 44,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin — less than one tenth of 1 percent of the total votes cast nationwide — were the difference between the Biden presidency and a tie in the Electoral College that would have thrown the election to the House of Representatives, and hence to Trump.
If candidates from No Labels— or any other third party, like the Green Party or the Libertarian Party —  peel off just a fraction of the anti-Trump vote from Biden, while Trump voters stay loyal to him, Trump could win the top five swing states comfortably and return to the Oval Office. And No Labels’ own polling shows they would do just that!
Let me be absolutely clear. Third-party groups like No Labels are in effect front groups for Trump in 2024, and should be treated as such.
The supposed “centrism” No Labels touts is nonsense. There is no middle ground between democracy and fascism.
Please share this video and spread the word.
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the-gay-prometheus · 20 days ago
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Thank you Dean and Cas, you can go back to superhell now or whatever.
OK. Now that I have your full and undivided attention.
What the &#!* is happening in Pennsylvania?!?
Hi. You can call me Jay or Victor (I go by both interchangeably). Who the heck am I? I'm just a guy who happens to be privy to a few of the finer details about some of the things going on regarding the election here in Pennsylvania due to my proximity to someone who is involved in the electoral process.
Skip to the "keep reading" if you don't care about the how or why I'm making this post and just want the details about what's going on.
You may have recently seen a post going around talking about how somebody has paid for many many many mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania to be challenged and therefore slowing the ability for those ballots to be counted or putting them at risk of being discarded entirely.
Note - the version of the post linked there is the EDITED version that includes my initial responses (thank you to OP @/feralcringeman for editing my addition onto the post!!!! and also a massive thank you for making the post in the first place!!!!! I'm glad more word is getting out about this situation!!!!)
I am not trying to undermine this individual's post by any means. However, thanks to the way Tumblr works, I am concerned about the fact that most people are only seeing the initial unedited version of the post and are not looking into the reblogs to see my responses.
THESE RESPONSES ARE IMPORTANT.
I'm not just saying that to be self-important or whatever - I'm saying that because it is extremely important that people understand exactly what is going on so that, if and when they take action, they take the correct action and don't start throwing accusations that will ultimately end with them not being taken seriously.
To make sure this updated information gets out to a broader audience, I am making my own post with everything you need to know included. Find out everything you need to know that I am able to tell you under the cut.
Here are the key things you need to know:
The emails in the original post are legitimate. Mail-in ballots are in fact being challenged in Pennsylvania, and there will be court hearings regarding the legitimacy of these ballots
These challenges are not being made by Donald Trump himself - they are being made by avid supporters of his.
These challenges ARE LEGAL by Pennsylvania law, and the law does require a payment to be made per ballot being challenged by the challenger
There was recent news about fraudulent voter registrations being received in Lancaster County. These have absolutely no connection to the individuals responsible for challenging the mail-in ballots
In Pennsylvania, there is a law stating that any Pennsylvania citizen may come to their county's director of elections and claim that certain mail-in ballot applications may be fraudulent. When they do so, they must pay cash out of pocket per ballot application challenged. This money will go toward whatever the county needs to put it toward (usually paying off debt). The amount required to be paid per challenge is $10.
A group of avid Trump supporters worked together to make use of this law in 14 counties:
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In my county specifically, I am aware of an individual who paid over $7,000 in cash to challenge ballots - that is between 700-800 challenges in my county alone.
Across these 14 counties, the number of ballots being challenged is over 4,300. That is over $43,000 paid in cash out of pocket by Trump supporters in Pennsylvania specifically with the intent of attempting to, at worst, nullify perfectly valid mail-in ballot applications and void valid votes, or at best, slow down the vote counting process by forcing the counties to conduct court hearings regarding the legitimacy of these ballots.
The good news is, many of these counties are not taking these challenges seriously whatsoever. In some cases, the judges are literally just throwing out the challenges. In other cases, the ones who made the challenges are withdrawing their challenges because it's clear that their challenges won't be taken seriously. That said, some counties may take them more seriously and hold more intense trials. In some cases, the challengers may appeal the more swiftly made court decisions and force yet another court case, slowing things down even more.
What does this all mean?
Trump didn't cheat (at least not in this specific case). Technically his supporters that made these challenges didn't either. These challenges are 100% legal under Pennsylvania law. They're ridiculous, but they are legal.
So does this mean you shouldn't raise your voices about it? That you shouldn't contact the White House and include this situation in your note about how there was foul play in this election? Absolutely not. You should include this situation, but do not frame it as cheating, because it isn't. Frame it as just another way that this election has not been run entirely fairly, because while it is legal, it means that there are perfectly valid votes that are still waiting to be counted while extremely tight races are already being called.
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With all that out of the way, what was that thing I said about fraudulent voter registrations in Lancaster?
This is a completely separate issue, as I've mentioned, and it's already been discovered that the vast majority of registrations flagged as potentially fraudulent have been verified as legitimate. What is important to note is that these were voter registrations, NOT ballots.
News of this situation has gone national, so of course Trump picked up on it (and visited Lancaster not once but twice after the entire issue came to a head). But Trump is Trump, so what did he say? He said that these were fraudulent ballots, fraudulent votes. That is not true.
The issue was voter registrations, potentially being conducted by paid political canvassers that were being given quotas on how many registrations they needed to get in order to be paid. Whether that bit is true or not is still being investigated - if it is true, it's very much illegal.
As I said, the good news is that the vast majority of the over 2000 flagged registrations have been verified as legitimate, and the number that actually does seem to be fraudulent so far is hovering below 20% of the number of registrations initially flagged.
Again, this issue is completely separate. You may see it being lumped together with the current issue of ballots being challenged, but these fraudulent registrations are linked to an entirely different situation and have nothing to do with Trump or his supporters.
~~~
So! That's the tea on what's happening here in PA. It's not as bad as it initially might sound - not to say it isn't bad, it's just not as bad. Feel free to ask questions, I'll do my best to answer with the information I have/the information I'm allowed to give.
And also, on a slightly lighter note, I think we should all collectively laugh at the idiots who paid a grand total of $43,000+ in cash for literally no good reason considering most of these challenges are just being or going to be thrown out. Lmao. I hope our counties' treasuries are enjoying those donations.
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seannessy · 1 month ago
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⚠️POLITICS⚠️
haha bet you forgot through the shitposts that i have a bachelor's degree in political science
here's a bunch of reasons why Kamala Harris is going to win the presidency because i can never find the effort to edit this into a video:👇
1. The current polls are VERY biased towards republicans. Most large polls just take the averages of other smaller polls, and right now the GOP has been dumping LOTS OF MONEY into publishing a lot of fluff polls in swing states to make themselves look better and to get more donations. Democrats don't usually publish their polls publicly. Odds are it's another red mirage.
2. The majority of people who Trump is catering to just don't vote. A lot of the latest pushes in the Aiden Ross Gamerbro communities are not reliable voters, even as loud as they are online. You cannot convince me that the twitter edgelord crowd has ever even seen a ballot in their lives.
3. In elections canvassing matters by about 300% more than advertising (my own ballpark estimate, not a specific datapoint, but still very true having worked in both canvassing and campaign marketing). The only people signing up to canvass for Trump are just stealing Elon's money, meanwhile people are flying out from all 50 states to swing states to canvass for Kamala.
4. "This is Hillary Clinton all over again." No it isn't. Hundreds of papers have been published that all agree that the reason Hillary lost (besides the Michigan debacle) was that largely a lot of people already assumed she was going to win, and so they didn't go out to vote. Sean Westwood did a really good paper on this in 2018, the more likely you are expected to win, the less of your supporters turn out. The entire narrative is that Kamala is either tied or behind, so anyone who supports her will NOT be sitting this one out.
5. Kamala just did a MASSIVE rally event in Texas. Texas. In this part of the campaign, any sane strategist would tell you to do ALL campaigning in the swing states, so this makes no sense... unless internal democrat polls are saying that Texas is now winnable for democrats. I will remind you that Texas is not NEARLY as red as the stereotype says, and Greg Abbot has himself previously said that Texas would have gone blue if not for all of the voter suppression he did. I'm not joking. This is real. The only reason Texas is still Lean Red instead of Moderate Blue is because of insane levels of voter suppression by Texas GOP.
6. When turnout is low, republicans win. When turnout is high, democrats win. Turnout is already STUPIDLY high in the early voting metrics. Even higher than 2020 (which i will remind you, we won) in some cases.
7. Voter demographics just aren't on Trump's side here. Lots of republicans have bled out of Trumpism, and in a close enough race as this one looks to be even a few thousand republicans deciding to stay home could make or break it in a lot of states. Additionally, while Trump has made a lot of progress in minority voters (daily reminder that the median voter is stupid enough for "median voter" to be used as a slur in political science communities), Kamala has the white woman vote locked down. And oh no! Look at that! Which voter demographic is orders of magnitudes both larger and more active voters than all of the minority demographics that Trump has been gaining in? Yep! Kamala's lead in the white woman demographic has entirely erased Trump's gains in other communities. Abortion was the final nail in the coffin of republican chances, they took the mask off too early. The dog caught the car and didn't know what to do with it.
8. Voter demographics are STILL not on Trump's side even ignoring all that other stuff, because keep in mind, Trump voters have largely been older people, and the waves of people who elected him previously have... well they've kind of died. Covid really didn't help with that. I mean obviously not everyone, but like, this is a close race, and a very large chunk of those voters have been reincarnated as plants or whatever now.
9. "The X Factor" is 100% on Kamala's side. By that I mean just the force of raw charisma, the Kamala campaign is just more appealing and less unnerving to the general population. I really hate to keep hammering this but oh my god dude have you SEEN JD Vance????? Even after the debate where he performed as best as he possibly could and Walz performed as bad as he possibly could, samples STILL said they supported Walz over Vance by a factor of 85 PERCENT.
10. "The Shy Trump Effect." There's a myth a lot of people believe that Trump underperforms in polls and overperforms in elections because voters are shy to admit they're fans of him. A few things. #1: This was disproved so many times, including in Sean Westwood's previously mentioned paper. #2: Even after it's disproved, many polls already factor it into their calculations, which is actually INFLATING his odds in the polls. #3: Anyone who would have been a Shy Trump Supporter either just isn't going to vote this election cycle or is going to follow the Cheney's lead and vote for Kamala instead. This is probably the one election in our entire lives where Democrats have appealed to the right and it actually fucking worked.
11. Polymarket. A lot of people point to the new Polymarket as evidence that Trump has a lot of support among the average joe crowd. These people have no idea how the Polymarket works. American citizens legally can't bet in it, and the only way to get around that is by using Crypto. How many tech illiterate boomers do you think are going to know how to use both Crypto and a VPN? All of Trump's support there is coming from techbro whales or people in other countries. Infact, I think the number was that about a whopping 30% of all bets made on the side of Trump were sourced back to this one French Billionaire.
That being said, it's not a predetermined victory. Currently I'd put the odds at anywhere between 60-40 and 70-30 in favor of Kamala, but that still leaves Trump plenty of room.
The moral of the story is that things aren't hopeless! We have a very good shot at winning--as long as we all keep pushing like hell!
Oh also, if they try another Jan 6th, reminder that Biden is now the one in control of the military and national guard at the capital. Lol, Lmao, even.
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qqueenofhades · 4 months ago
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I think the veepstakes are going to continue for another week or so, both to increase the profile of her potential running mates and see how they do with the public, time to vet, and give everyone a little more incentive to be extra enthusiastic about campaigning for her, but ALSO because there's a nonzero chance Trump may drop Vance and they'll need to pivot their strategy, though I think most choices will be sound either way(I like Walz and Beshear the best). What do you think are the odds of Trump dropping Vance versus doubling down because he doesn't want to look weak or indecisive?
She is going to have to pick pretty quickly, because the Ohio GOP attempted some fuckery by putting their ballot deadline before the DNC (and refusing to grant an extension as they always did for Republicans, so you know). I expect she will pick by the middle of next week at the latest, because the virtual nomination has to be made by, iirc, August 6th in order to outwit the attempted Republican ratfuckery. The DNC is then August 19-22, where the whole thing will be made official and everyone will pledge/endorse/etc. That leaves a pretty compressed timeline to road-test Veep picks, see how they work with Harris, how they play with the public, etc. But they've been on top of it so far, so there's that. I saw someone suggest that she let it go on as long as possible in order to have 6-10 white guys hyping her up on TV every day -- which is valid, yes, but she will have to pick soon. There are really no bad options, though I too have ones that I would like in particular. I am really warming to Walz, as I think he has a great communication style and would shore her up in the white Midwest. Though I did get a fundraising email from Mark Kelly on behalf of Kamala Harris yesterday, and lbr if you can pick an astronaut, pick an astronaut.
As for Trump dropping Vance, he's in considerably more of a pickle (everyone together now: AHAHAAHHAH! HAHAHAH! HAAHHAHAHAHAHA!) because the RNC has already happened, Vance is legally and bindingly the VP nominee, and if they change it now, there are a ton of legal and procedural steps that take time and make the GOP look incredibly weak. They will also piss off the Project 2025 people (who were all over the Vance pick because obviously, Vance loves it and they are horrible) -- which, if they were at all sensible, they might do. But they're fascists and that's actually what they want to do, so they won't. Biden was able to step aside and put Harris in so easily because he was not actually the Democratic nominee yet -- he was just the presumptive nominee, delegates are technically free to vote for whoever they want and the nominee is not official until after this convention process has happened, and he wasn't locked in. But if the GOP tries to drop Vance now, it's going to be a lot of legal hassle, they'll look incredibly foolish, and they'll piss off the core fascists they have been rallying every step of the way. Too bad, so sad. No good choice, huh? Seems karmically fitting that they can't abort Vance. Oh no. They must carry his ass to term.
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