#some additional evidence
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This tracks because Harrison says his favorite Conan Doyle quote aka "When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth" from The Sign of The Four which was published in February 1890.
Roger's route mentioning an existing treatment for tetanus helps with narrowing the timeline down to somewhere between 1890 - 1901. I haven't paid much attention to other historical events that could possibly narrow it down even more :>
#i've thought about it a lot#it has to be 1890s because of this#thank you harry and roger#ikemen villains#ikevil#some additional evidence
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Everyone who aggressively denies obvious Byler foreshadowing pointed out to them is gonna look awfully foolish when Byler is endgame. It’s one thing to be a GA member and just not know the evidence; it’s another thing to be an avid watcher of the show and be shown specific evidence in great detail, only to be like, “Nuh-uh, this means nothing 🙅♂️”
#byler#“the show isn’t that deep”#actually it quite literally is#some evidence requires faith and additional context sure#and some things are just… blatant and transparent#basic filmmaking and storytelling 101 stuff#at least have your own proper explanation#don’t just say nothing in the show has any meaning beyond cute main character boy and cute superhero girl kissed so they must be endgame#let’s discuss these specific cinematography and mise en scène choices‼️
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Tell me more about the worst things about the rationalists? The point about “you are experiencing a feeling as though you’re having an insight” (sorry don’t have your exact wording in front of me) is sort of giving me a light bulb moment re: their whole thing
so... the answer is at least kind of "yes, i can do that", but in attempting to answer your question i found myself writing several thousand words of explanation about who i think "rationalists" even describes anymore/ever, why i've encountered them and what my background is, etc, so if you'd like to write back clarifying your own knowledge of/level of interaction with internet rationalism that might help me cut out some of the thousands of words of historical context. regardless i'll think about it and try to figure out which takes i think i'm actually qualified to air in public/which will be meaningful to anyone less immersed in weird rat history inside baseball than i am
#if you want to stay anon and don't want me to post your additional clarifications that's totally fine#it would just help me to know whether or not i have to explain ai safety stuff/hpmor/EA/etc if it's relevant to something#box opener#i will include one of the caveats now which is that. i have a certain deep sympathy for the like#basic rhetorical-style impulse that i think initially drew a lot of people in#there's a refreshing contrast in being in internet spaces where people are talking like they think reasoning should be based on evidence#now one of my many complaints is i feel kind of betrayed by rationalists' failure to actually do empiricism well or in some cases at all.#but i unfortunately do enjoy being in contexts where it's being paid lip service at minimum. it feels homey
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Totally inconsequential thing that still annoys me no end: it being still stated and accepted as fact in certain places (even amongst some supposed Class 40 experts) that the train involved in the Coppenhall Junction crash in December 1962 was D326 when it was actually D215.
#D326 my beloved#I have got way too invested in researching this#but I have seen the video that proves it!#amongst other evidence!#some of it from a site that is one of those#that is stating that it was D326 in that crash in fact#their own records pretty much prove it can't have been her#and sure I get that people like the whole idea of#'the cursed train who killed a whole load of people'#(in addition to the other stuff that happened with her)#but it's just not true#diesel trains
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Thinking about Chibita's Matsus Ranking:
POSITIVE TIER
1. Karamatsu: Duh. Especially obvious in the games! He looks after him and doesn't mind his painfulness. they match each other's freak (and actually, in the anime, it's KARAMATSU who sometimes struggles to match Chibita lol)
2. Ichimatsu: He hired the guy! They worked together! Ichimatsu is a surprisingly sensible and reasonable person. He's also blunt, which I'm sure Chibita appreciates. I can see why they worked together. Chibita likely took a risk hiring the most obviously gloomy Matsu but it seemed to pay off.
(it's maybe a bit funny to see those two sharing top places, considering the general consensus of how Ichimatsu treats Karamatsu.
TBF, from Chibita's POV those two were close from childhood through highschool, and when he sees them in the oden stan as part of the six-pack, Ichimatsu is probably not significantly more terrible than the other drunkards are to each other.
Besides, he makes sure to force Karamatsu to drink water, and Karamatsu usually carries him when he's had too much alcohol. I can see Chibita assuming that they're on ok terms. Heck Karamatsu might've even recommended the guy)
NEUTRAL TIER (tie)
3. Todomatsu: They guy can be an annoying drunk but he's at least not very likely to cause property damage. He mostly keeps his ruckus to riling his brothers up with words, which isn't appreciated but it's not the worst thing.
I can also see Totty as inclined to pay for his food, at least when he's not with the other five. On the other hand, I think he's the least likely to visit Chibita's stand without his siblings. Not his scene, yknow?
3. Osomatsu: this guy never pays and he's too good at getting the other five demons to behave like a feral pack of clones. He gets drunk on Chibita's alcohol, gets loud, his humour gets raunchy, and he's not above trying to pick a fight with Chibita at their age.
ON THE OTHER HAND, he does seem to frequent Chibita's stand either with just a couple of his brothers as company, or alone. Chibita is one of the few social relationships that Osomatsu kept after highschool, and Chibita is probably aware of it. Osomatsu trusts him, or at least his judgement, enough to vent and ask for advice.
Besides, I'm sure that in Chibita's mind, Osomatsu (& co, although to different degrees, lead by him) is a sort of childhood friend. So the very annoying stuff gets balanced by the fact that they've known each other basically all their lives, and they continue to interact with each other despite a long list of arguments and fights.
NEGATIVE...ISH TIER
4. Jyushimatsu: He's a fun, if weird guy, when he's sober. BUT WHEN HE'S DRUNK... His destructive power is too high even on acciden. He's also loud, loud enough to keep away other patrons. Also, he keeps paying with acorns!?
At least he's not trying to pick fights, although he'll be one of the first to join a kerfuffle with his brothers if someone else initiates it. Which leads us to,
5. Choromatsu: I know, who would've thought so lol. Well you see, this man has THE SHORTEST temper amongst the sextuplets, and he's all too willing to yell about it + general frustrations + include threats if he's riled up enough.
It gets worse when he has alcohol in his syste: his inhibitions get lower, his will to make good on his threats rises, and his rowdiness doesn't need much of anything to take over. Such a punk, still at heart. To make matters worse, the drunker Choromatsu is the easier he is to piss off.
At least he pays on occasion, even when he's part of smaller groups of his siblings. It just never seems to be enough to cover his intake 🤨
What Choromatsu's got in his favour is that I can see him be one of the Matsus who visit Chibita on his own, like Oso or Kara. As far as I know this is just a headcanon though lol. Maybe this would be enough to put him on Jyushi's level at least? Or even just a bit below Oso.
#karamatsu#ichimatsu#osomatsu#todomatsu#jyushimatsu#Choromatsu#would love to hear others takes or even additional info that comes from other media#I've only seen some of the game's storylines on YouTube and I've never touched the manga/novels/osokun#the reason why Karamatsu's is so short is because it felt too evident but also bcs if i start talking karabita I'll never stop#rambles#ososan rambles#Chibita#karabita#ichibita#osobita#todobita#chorobita#jyushibita#Matsugo
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Ok the Elphelt leaks are almost certainly fake but I do adore the musician angle and I hope that in particular winds up being real, it feels like a really cute and smart direction for her character to go in
#I did not catch it in the reblog of the image bc it's mostly evident in some additional gameplay screenshots#shoutouts to Sol's disembodied leg#Guilty Gear Strive#elphelt valentine#I might elaborate on some additional Elphelt thoughts on why I think it's good but there's like a 70% chance I won't.
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also, all posts about voting aside, i think i'm at a point where i'm ready to talk to my activist friend about how i can help a lot more without being on the front lines because. it's just. i think this is the worst thing i've ever seen in my life.
#not like in sheer body count but just the openness of the evil. the total shamelessness and absence of even token consequences#the astronomical volume of video evidence being passively or actively suppressed#i'm not sure at all that any possible election outcome can keep things from getting drastically worse very soon for everyone#like this is the point where idk if anything besides force and at least some violence is going to make things even slightly better#the concentration of resources and power is just so impossibly high now. we might have passed the tipping point#but if we have then me voting for a democrat is not going to do any additional harm so literally why wouldn't i#usapol#palestine#lebanon
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What if I grew my hair out and it solved all of my problems?
#it won’t solve all my problems#i know it won’t#but like.#what if it did#(it won’t. it will cause additional problems.)#(otoh one of those problems will *probably* not be my hair falling out again#and if it is then I have more evidence that other stuff is still wrong.#so maybe it WOULD solve at least some of my problems.)#LT talks
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Updated references for my ocs Erica and Ana!
Erica is a conspiracy theorist/paranormal investigator and Ana is her best friend who has magical true sight.
#additional fun facts:#ana is jewish#erica's hair just grows like that and no one knows why#especially not her. she has so many theories about it though#it used to be blonde but when she was six she tried to dye it and it's been like this ever since#ana has six older sisters but only three of them live with her and their parents#the only family erica has is her mom and some extended family members who all live several states away#ana has a good relationship with her family but erica doesn't#ana is much more of a skeptic about things than erica. she also has a tendency towards sarcasm#she does know for a fact that the supernatural exists (she's got the power to see magic things no one else can)#however unlike erica she questions evidence more and avoids leaping to conclusions#ana tries to help keep erica's wild theories grounded more in reality but doesn't completely dismiss them#while erica believes ana about what she sees when no one else does#not fandom stuff#my ocs#erica williams#ana wegner
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youtube
they're so right about the diction of course
they're also soooo right about the breath control from william "holds that 'again' in (acoustic) loser geek whatever for fifteen damn seconds and long enough live that other jeremys just gotta be cutting it down a bit when they perform it" roland like my god the consistency in every moment of these lines. that lowest note being such a crisp & cool spritz & he's sometimes holding it too & it just never falters like my god....the mass effecties are having a great time w/this too, hope it gets around to someone official seeing it, which gets around to will. simply going tf off once again lord....
and the extra mile
#fr like i barely know a little bit Of mass effect but those who know a lot are having a fantastic time as per the comments. love it for them#which also this having been A Concept existing in part via some easter egg....the lyrics from a fanfic / working w/that fanfic author for#an additional verse here lol....anamnesises#will roland#goog says mass effect 2 released in jan 2010....hand over heart just like amnesia: the dark descent in sept 2010#going the extra mile for that over the shoulder shot as he also plays mass effect (2?) is a beautiful flourish#like fr that breath control is so good like yeah i don't know hardly anything abt the techniques of [how do ppl sing] but it's like damn#he's once again done it so well it all looks easy to the point you don't imagine there was any bonus difficulty / effort needed at all#and the rarer: doing a voice lol#not that his Delivery doesn't vary for characters but generally still using mostly his own speaking / singing voice's overall timbre#delightfully lively throughout....having a high time evidently there he is cropping up in the live premiere comments lol. been a min#i should seek to rediscover that virtual joe iconis interview of yore where he was surprised by his boys (so: will & george jumping in lol)#Youtube#editing to amend: nvm it wasn't an easter egg. idk if it was a Guaranteed Experience given the rpg options element but probably
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#showaddywaddy#ROMEO#help i'm laughing#also malcolm without sunglasses aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa fdhgssh#trevor's pose is perfect#dave is the only one with matching socks#dave i think that's a crime of some sort#wait no he doesn't i think they're pink and i'm#not seeing right#maybe?????#okay i'm unsure so just consider dave under investigation#wait i was gonna just post the first picture but i'll put the other striped pants pictures in here too#upon further investigation and with the help of these other additions the evidence says that dave is in fact innocent#his socks do not match#(me applauding for dave's socks)#al however#is wearing socks that do match with some things he's wearing#al you're under investigation now#showaddywaddy pictures
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tfw you wanna try to play ttrpgs again, but ever since playing a few years ago during a certain two campaigns, you were bullied by people who you thought were your friends because you didn't know how to play and they made up reasons why they should dislike you irl. especially while you tried to be nice to them and give them space and tried to make steps towards interacting with them in rp too.
like no, it wasn't like "oh, it's just character interaction, these characters just don't like each other!" no it was "no joke, I absolutely hate your guts, Miss Iodine, fuck you and I'll be an arse to you in-game and irl. i will ignore everything you and your character say, i will attack your character because why not and say it's just what my character would do, and then start harassing my DMs"
love it when i tried for months to reach out for a proper sit down only to be given a sorry-not-sorry half-assed push the blame onto the victim apology
like yes this lives rent free in my head. you won, if that's what you wanted.
#autumn says stuff#vent#im still so fuckin salty even though its been so long#i just don't understand how people can treat others so terribly and not even think twice about it#never a moment of ‟maybe I did wrong?‟#nah. just tell Miss Iodine ‟You're a problem‟#yes that exact statement was said to me#maybe ��bully‟ is a cliche word but i dunno what else to call it#like mate i've been nearly stabbed before during what i can only assume was an attempted hate crime. technically i did get hurt ig because#grabbed the knife by the blade as it was being thrusted towards me. i still have the said knife btw. wanna get free knife? just grab it#from your attacker. and then they'll run off because they're a little shit. actually don't do that. don't recommend that. okay so the point#is that yk ive been hurt physically many times but goddamn this situation still hurts emotionally#it was funny when said someone in this group told me i was 'appropriating neurodivergent culture.' mate. mate. wot. im how?#take it from me. im not neurotypical lmao. i thought that was obvious but no. no idea where this even stemmed from tbh because it really#came out of nowhere. also being called a fascist for years by these people for liking worldbuilding and star trek was cool. didn't realize#that fuckin reading old soviet books and playing papers please and minecraft makes me a fascist somehow. but you learned it here.#im still so fucking pissed about that accusation. love that their additional reasoning that im somehow a fascist was that#‟you're getting mad and keep insisting you're not a fascist‟ is proof that you're a fascist. what else am i supposed to do? you haven't#even given an ounce of some so-called mountain of evidence.#its cool that no one cared about what these people did to me. better to retain a friendship with them and never bring up what they did.#better to just alienate miss iodine from the friend group. better to never bring it up. better to forget any of this happened. better to#forget that miss iodine exists.#sometimes i wish i could know what its like to not give a flying fuck about other people. I wonder what it's like to be such a shitty perso#fucking hell.#thought i found home when i first met that group. instead it just reminds me of the home i grew up in.#My biological family (save two cool cousins) is probably a collection of some of the worst people in existence.
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Ok I keep seeing the weekly destiel with the james somerton fake-suicide headline but I looked it up and all I can find is some articles and tweets and reddit posts from way back in March, can someone link me to some sources on the "alt acc for posting hole" thing???
#im not entirely disinclined to believe it#all is possible on this wretched earth and gods internet#BUT i need some evidence all i have is the meme that was posted today#its literally a weird addendum to a rwo month old addition to the controversy and such a weird one at that
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Every day I shake and cry as I stare longingly at years old posts and threads abt oni lore knowing very well that even if the original poster still gives a shit abt oni lore they probably don't give as much of a shit as I do
#rat rambles#oni posting#^ not said in a 'Im the only Real oni fan' way but in a 'Im insane' way#I know damn well Im the only guy who has a several hour lecture about olivia characterization based on barely anything locked and loaded#its just me losing my mind as olivia is mentioned in an email or smth and contemplating the potential deep implications of i#all while the mention in question is just that shell be at a party or smth (that is an actual example of exactly this experience btw)#look tbf it is a fascinating mention as it shoes that despite complications in olivia and jackies relationship olivia is still heavily#involved in company matters including stuff regarding company image and events#well ok saying heavily is probably a bit of a stretch but yknow involved nonetheless#it shoes some strange degree of trust on jackie's part even though she obviously doesn't actually trust or respect her much otherwise#thats a bit harsh but its not wrong jackie very much doesnt respect olivia like at all even if she might not think that she doesnt#and well jackie seemingly doesnt trust olivia to be given privy to certain information#tbf its because she knows damn well its stuff olivia would be against so its not like shes making an incorrect judgement there per say#but I do think on some level olivia is the closest thing to a person jackie sees as an equal#not nearly close enough evidently but olivia is despite everything an important person to jackie#jackie just also sucks and is too caught up in her own ambition to truly see how poorly she treats olivia#she wants olivia to be there and gives her a lot of resources and power along with additional responsibilities so on some level she does#see olivia as at the bare minimum more valuable to her goals than most ppl but along with the evident personal factors it becomes rly messy#it showcases one of the core flaws of jackie as a very emotionally driven person who wants to see and present herself as objective#and you see this is the bullshit I was talking abt I pulled all of that straight out of my ass and the tiniest bit from One email
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Useful article from CNN on election-night misinformation.
Key takeaway is that pretty much whatever happens, Trump will claim it's evidence that the election is being rigged against him.
Some additional things to keep in mind--particularly if you haven't been through many of these before:
The winner may or may not be projected on election night. How long it takes depends on a bunch of factors, having to do with the logistics of ballot-counting and how the statistical analysis comes along. Getting a projected winner by midnight and the count taking several days are both well within the range of normal, and neither one suggests that anything nefarious is happening.
Counting of votes always continues for several days after the election, until every vote has been counted. This happens regardless of whether or not the media have "called" a winner, or a candidate has conceded.
Media outlets project election winners based on the data that has come in and their statistical models--they do not "declare" or "decide" who won. The major outlets are very motivated to avoid an incorrect projection*, so if they make a call, it's because they're really sure they have enough information to accurately predict the outcome of the final count.
Usually, when this happens, all of the major media outlets are making the same projection around the same time--within the same hour, at least, and often in the same 10 minutes or so. If there's an outlier, there's a good chance they're either guessing or propagandizing.
Candidates do not get to call the race in their own favor. There's a decent chance Trump will try, but also it's also normal and expected for both campaigns to talk like they're expecting to win; e.g. introducing their candidate as "the next President of the United States" when appearing before supporters at events. (My guess is that if he does try, the mainstream media outlets will simply sanewash it as typical election-night bravado, which is actually fine.)
The only thing that means anything, coming from a candidate/campaign, is a concession. This will often happen after the media has called the race for the other candidate; it usually isn't a surprise. A normal campaign will often go quiet--stop sending people to talk on TV, etc.--when they're getting ready to concede. (Trump arguably** still hasn't conceded 2020, so no one is particularly expecting him to concede any time this coming week.)
It's normal for the numbers to change a lot. There are always some surprises, but there are also standard patterns: results from the southeast usually come in a clump, and put a lot of electoral votes into the Republican column, early in the night. Democrats usually pick up the west coast states, which of course are the last to close their polls and start reporting results***. For the swing states, where we'll probably see a lot of reporting on very incomplete vote totals, results will start coming in first from the rural areas, which lean red; cities take longer to count their votes--because there are more of them--and lean blue.
The more uncertainty there is about the outcome, the more you'll hear about the evolving numbers--news networks have airtime to fill, and there's only so many ways you can say, "Still too close to call." Try not to obsess over these numbers; the news networks have people specially trained to analyze this exact kind of data, and if they can't say how it's going to turn out, you're not going to know, either.
If it ends up being too close to call for several days, there will probably be reporting on small, county-by-county vote dumps. It's important to realize that this is all still the original count of the votes, not a recount or "finding new votes." We only hear about it when the election is so close that these relatively small numbers of ballots are likely to affect the outcome, but it happens every single election. In 2020, Trump repeatedly claimed that ongoing counts were some how irregular, and sometimes demanded that counts be stopped when the current total showed him in the lead. This is, to be clear, nuts; the full & complete count of the votes always takes more than just the one day, and it's a bedrock principle of democracy that every valid ballot is counted.
(* Back in 2000, the Bush-Gore election with the whole Florida debacle, several major news outlets did project winners too soon, and then had to walk back their projections.
This definitely contributed to the chaos that night, and may have also contributed to the widespread perception that Bush was the "real" winner and Gore was dragging the country through multiple recounts, in those first few days when the initial count of wasn't even complete in some states.
As a result, responsible media outlets are much more cautious these days about election-night projections.)
(**On January 7, 2021 he made a statement that was taken as indicating his understanding that Biden had won, or at least that he knew he wouldn't be staying in office, but he never stopped saying he won.)
(***This often looks like the Republican being miles ahead, and then suddenly California reports in and they aren't anymore. Expect Trump to pretend that this is somehow shocking, even though the last time a Republican won California was 1988.
Similarly, he will also pretend to be surprised when, for instance, Philadelphia turns in their first big batch of results, and Harris's numbers jump up.)
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The actual article is so fucking bonkers. Like tl;dr It's just a long-winded "videogames cause violence" article but with an anti-American twist
She quotes Steve Banon's observation of online RP fighting games. He talks about how average people can find community online + live out a fantasy of being a warrior. Said he wanted to harness those wishes to get ppl to participate in the January 6th Insurrection.
Like. This lady compares American Communists during the red scare gathering with a community, planning an uprising, using codenames, play acting as quote "Soviet James Bond"
...To people in video games role-playing as a warrior. And like. Making friends and shit online.
The ending is the best part, and I can't do it justice in a summary:
Promise?
#id in alt text btw#but yeah. yeesh#maybe some alt right game nerds were inspired to cosplay their persona and overthrow the government#but they certainly don't provide any evidence that video games inspiring real life violence is. like. a TREND nowadays#aye ay ay...#my addition#christianity#tw christianity#religion
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