#partisan polls

[trendynewsnow]

The Strategic Narrative of Partisan Polls Favoring Trump

The Surge of Partisan Polls: A Strategic Narrative for Trump The recent influx of polls, arriving in rapid succession over the past few weeks, has predominantly indicated a favorable outcome for Donald J. Trump. These surveys have stood out among the myriad of others, most of which suggest a tight race in the upcoming presidential election. However, a common thread runs through these particular…

[tanadrin]

I don’t pay for it but everything I see about Nate silver’s model makes me think it’s kinda cooked. Rasmussen gets a B rating? Really??

[fictionaladoptionpolls]

For those unfamiliar with the children in question: Kevin, Simon, Yun, Yunyun

This poll's theme is: Unlike the Lilies' poll, I intended to put Yun and Yunyun together!

[originalleftist]

If you're wondering why polling averages are suddenly showing Trump winning despite all the bad news he's gotten lately- it might have something to do with this:

Basically, Republicans are ratfucking the polling averages by churning out huge numbers of partisan polls, and the polling aggregators/analysts like 538 aren't doing due diligence to compensate for it.

Now, what is the purpose of this?

Well, in the immediate-term, it creates a narrative that Trump is winning, boosting morale of his supporters while demoralizing support for Democrats and Harris.

Beyond that, if polling averages show that Trump is winning ahead of election day-which we can pretty much guarantee they will, because see above-then they will use that as "proof" of fraud if Democrats subsequently win.

Basically, they are engineering a pretext for their next coup attempt in front of us.

The only numbers that decide anything are actual votes. So ignore the polls, and VOTE.

[theprogressivecynic]

Three 2024 Maps: Trump’s Highway to Victory and Biden’s Tightrope

Josh Sager – 7/2/2024 Based on current polling numbers and trends, there are three maps that describe the outer edges of what we can expect in the 2024 election. Trump has a wide highway to victory, and can afford to lose multiple battleground states before he is in danger, while Biden has a chance to win, but it is by traversing the narrowest possible electoral tightrope. Ultimately, I suspect…

[anistarrose]

Please don't tune out when you get to the non-partisan section of your ballot this November. First off, where state Supreme Court justices are elected, Republicans are trying their darndest to elect candidates who will destroy reproductive freedom, gut voting rights, and do everything in their power to give "contested" elections to Republicans. Contrast Wisconsin electing a justice in 2023 who helped rule two partisan gerrymanders unconstitutional, versus North Carolina electing a conservative majority in 2022, who upheld a racist voter ID law and a partisan gerrymander that liberal justices had previously struck down both of.

Second, local judicial offices will make infinitely more of an impact on your community than a divided state or federal legislature will. District and circuit courts, especially, are where criminalization of homelessness and poverty play out, and where electing a progressive judge with a commitment to criminal justice reform can make an immediate difference in people's lives.

It's a premier example of buying people time, and doing profound-short-term good, while we work to eventually change the system. You might not think there will be any such progressive justices running in your district, but you won't know unless you do your research. (More on "research" in a moment.)

The candidates you elect to your non-partisan city council will determine whether those laws criminalizing homelessness get passed, how many blank checks the police get to surveil and oppress, and whether lifesaving harm reduction programs, like needle exchanges and even fentanyl test strips, are legal in your municipality. Your non-partisan school board might need your vote to fend off Moms for Liberty candidates and their ilk, who want to ban every book with a queer person or acknowledgement of racism in it.

Of course, this begs the question — if these candidates are non-partisan, and often hyper-local, then how do I research them? There's so much less information and press about them, so how do I make an informed decision?

I'm not an expert, myself. But I do think/hope I have enough tips to consist of a useful conclusion to this post:

Plan ahead. If you vote in person, figure out what's on your ballot before you show up and get jumpscared by names you don't know. Find out what's on your ballot beforehand, and bring notes with you when you vote. Your city website should have a sample ballot, and if they drop the ball, go to Ballotpedia.

Ballotpedia in general, speaking of which. Candidates often answer Ballotpedia's interviews, and if you're lucky, you'll also get all the dirt on who's donating to their campaign.

Check endorsements. Usually candidates are very vocal about these on their websites. If local/state progressive leaders and a couple unions (not counting police unions lol) are endorsing a candidate, then that's not the end of my personal research process per se, but it usually speeds things up.

Check the back of the ballot. That's where non-partisan races usually bleed over to. This is the other reason why notes are helpful, because they can confirm you're not missing anything.

I've seen some misconceptions in the reblogs, so an addendum to my point about bringing notes on the candidates: I strongly suggest making those notes a physical list that you bring polling place with you. Many states do allow phones at the polling place, but several states explicitly don't — Nevada, Maryland, and Texas all ban phones, and that may not be an exhaustive list. There may also be states that allow individual city clerks to set policies.

You should also pause and think before you take a photo of your ballot, because even some states that don't ban phones still ban ballot photographs. But whether it's a photo, or just having your phone in general — in an environment as high-risk for voter suppression as the current one, you don't want even a little bit of ambiguity about your conduct. Physical notes are your friends.

[misterjt]

It says most Americans don’t believe they live in a dystopia of “wokeism.” They’re living here and now — not in the discriminatory, exclusionary past.

—Eugene Robinson with a poll that shows "wokeness" is winning.

[shinelikethunder]

With less than a week to go, SCOTUS' partisan wing sends the message loud and clear that their attitude towards rubber-stamping outrageously illegal election-interference bullshit is "try and stop us, you jumped-up little shits."

However, in this particular case, you can still vote if Virginia has wrongfully purged you from the voter rolls. As of 2022, VA offers same-day registration and provisional ballots (where you follow up with documention after the fact), as long as you vote in the correct precinct.

Official Virginia page to look up the polling place for your address

Official Virginia same-day registration info

Official Virginia page to check your registration status

Ballotpedia state-by-state info on same-day registration

Ballotpedia state-by-state info on provisional ballots and what happens to ones cast in the wrong precinct

ACLU Know Your Rights voting fact sheet

Multilingual voter protection hotlines (English: 866-OUR-VOTE)

For anyone who became a citizen since their last DMV visit, or who suspects they made an error filing out their paperwork that would have booted them from voter lists, there are still ways to cast a ballot in next month’s elections. Registrars and election workers won’t turn eligible voters away from polls if they wish to utilize same-day registration or a provisional ballot, according to Henrico County Registrar Mark Coakley. [...] With a provisional ballot, voters will still need to follow up with their local registrar office to provide additional documents that can help verify their identity or other facts, like if they are residents of Virginia and the city or county they voted in, and whether they are U.S. citizens or have had their voting rights restored after a previous felony conviction. [...] Coakley said that when using a provisional ballot, voters are also given instructions to help with the follow-up procedures. “They’ll get a letter attached to their provisional ballot, giving them all the information of ‘This is the reason why (you may have this ballot)’ and ‘Here’s the ways to get hold of us to present evidence if you choose to do so,’” he said. Chesterfield County Registrar Missy Vera stressed that same-day registration can happen at any early voting location as well as on Election Day, which is Nov. 5.

[zvaigzdelasas]

The 2024 Chicago Council Survey, conducted June 21–July 1, 2024, finds a majority of Americans are now opposed to using US troops to defend Israel if it is attacked.

An overall 42 percent of the US public would favor using US troops to defend Israel if it were attached by Iran (56% oppose). While a slim majority of Republicans would favor US forces defending Israel in this scenario (53%), only four in 10 Independents (42%) and third of Democrats (34%) agree. [...]

The one instance presented to Americans where a majority (54%) would still favor using US troops is in a peacekeeping scenario if Israel and the Palestinians reached a peace agreement. Democrats (62%) are most willing of all the partisans to use US troops in a peacekeeping manner, consistent with previous polling. About half of Independents (51%) and Republicans (48%) agree.

6 Aug 24

[cleolinda]

"We are here on a very important day, before a very important election and we are here, more than anything, to speak about protection of an election, making sure that the election that occur tomorrow will be free, will be fair and it will be final," [Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner] said.

He said that the task force, which, Krasner, a Democrat, noted was operating on a non-partisan basis -- "We do not care who gets your vote. We care that you get to vote," he promised -- would be on the lookout for any election concerns throughout the day.

Though they don't believe there will be issues, Krasner said the task force will be looking out for "people working in polls or close to polls who will bring frivolous challenges to voters."

"Anybody who thinks they are going to play those games in Philadelphia, you're going to do it in bad faith -- I got no problem with doing it in good faith -- but, if you're going to do it in bad faith, there is an election court, there are judges, they have orders and, those orders are going to say, in essence, 'get out of the polling places,'" he said. "Anybody who doesn't get out, you're going to be arrested."

And, he warned that anyone who think it's will be fun as they plan to interfere in Tuesday's elections, they might find out otherwise.

"You can have your fun in a jail cell, cause that's what's coming," he said.

In fact, Krasner took a moment to superficially warn anyone who has any plans to interfere with the city's electoral process -- like the two men who came to the city and were arrested after being found with weapons outside the Pennsylvania Convention Center when votes were being tallied there in 2020 -- would simply 'F around and find out."

"Anybody who thinks it's time to play militia, F around and find out. Anybody who thinks it's time to insult, to deride, to mistreat, to threaten people, F around and find out," said Krasner. "We do have the cuffs, we do have the jail cells, we do have the Philly juries and we have the state prisons. So, if you're going to turn the election into some form of coercion, if you're going to try to bully people, bully votes or voters, if you're going to try to erase votes, if you're going to try any of that nonsense, F around and find out."

[trendynewsnow]

Trump and Lake: Contrasting Polling Dynamics in Arizona

Trump and Lake: A Study in Contrasts When it comes to substance and style, there exists a notable similarity between former President Donald J. Trump and Kari Lake, the outspoken former news anchor who is currently vying for a Senate seat in Arizona. Both individuals gained prominence through their television careers and have exhibited a penchant for fiery rhetoric that resonates with the…

[wilwheaton]

Two of the nonpartisan pollsters have Harris up by 5 points, while the two pollsters that have a partisan sponsor show her up by 3 points. Keep an eye on polls by partisan pollsters or done for partisan sponsors. In 2022, they consistently proved more favorable than nonpartisan ones to Republicans, as Republicans tried hard to maintain the “red wave” narrative. Same thing is happening this year, as Republicans will invest significant resources to game the polling aggregates. I wouldn’t sweat it beyond being aware of it. There are some who think that progressives will relax if they think Harris has it in the bag. Is having Harris +3 less motivating than +5? I don’t buy it. I think people love a winning team, and the bigger the lead, the more motivated we’ll be to finish strong. But ultimately, it is what it is. Harris is doing great. Let’s win big.

The first post-debate polls look good for Harris

New challenge: every Friday between now and your state’s registration deadline, go to vote.gov and double check that you haven’t been purged by republican fuckery.

[allthecanadianpolitics]

Heather Stefanson, the leader of Manitoba’s PCs, has launched a new ad campaign promoting her opposition to searching a landfill for the remains of two Indigenous women believed to have been murdered by an alleged serial killer. On Saturday, the Manitoba PCs took out a full page ad in the Winnipeg Free Press as well as site-wide banner ads on the province’s biggest newspaper’s website featuring a sensational and highly unusual campaign message from the incumbent premier, who is currently trailing by a wide margin in the latest opinion polls. “Stand firm,” reads both the print and digital versions of Stefanson’s ad. “For health and safety reasons, the answer on the landfill dig just has to be no.”

Continue Reading.

Tagging: @politicsofcanada

[evidence-based-activism]

Stop Calling Hispanic/Latino People "Latinx"

So, the Pew Research Center is one of the highest quality, non-partisan, public opinion polling and demographic research centers in the world. And they have a fun new report: "Latinx Awareness Has Doubled Among U.S. Hispanics Since 2019, but Only 4% Use It".

Their findings include:

47% of Hispanic/Latino adults have heard the term "Latinx" in 2023, up from 23% in 2019, but only

4% of Hispanic/Latino adults have used "Latinx" to describe themselves, and only

13% of lesbian, gay or bisexual Hispanic/Latino adults use the term "Latinx", with usage in all other sub-groups falling in the single digits

In addition, among Hispanics who have heard the term "Latinx":

75% of all Hispanic/Latino adults say it should NOT be used, and

68% of Hispanic/Latina women say it should NOT be used, and

60% of lesbian, gay or bisexual Hispanic/Latino adults say it should NOT be used, and

And most sub-groups prefer either the term "Hispanic" or "Latino", including:

81% of all Hispanic/Latino people

82% of all Hispanic/Latina women

75% of all lesbian, gay or bisexual Hispanic/Latino adults

61% of Hispanic/Latino people people who have used "Latinx" to identify themselves

In summary, stop using language that the communities don't like/want! It is not progressive to force linguistic changes changes onto marginalized groups. (Particularly not when you are a part of the oppressor class.)

Reference:

Lopez, Luis Noe-Bustamante, Gracie Martinez and Mark Hugo. “Latinx Awareness Has Doubled Among U.S. Hispanics Since 2019, but Only 4% Use It.” Pew Research Center, 12 Sept. 2024, https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/09/12/latinx-awareness-has-doubled-among-u-s-hispanics-since-2019-but-only-4-percent-use-it/.

[reasonsforhope]

For all the concern in recent years that U.S. democracy is on the brink, in danger or under threat, a report out Tuesday offers a glimmer of good news for American voters worried that casting a ballot will be difficult in 2024.

Put simply, the new data shows that voting in America has gotten easier over the past two decades. More voters have the ability to cast a ballot before Election Day, with the majority of U.S. states now offering some form of early in-person voting and mail voting to all voters.

"Although we often talk in a partisan context about voter fraud and voter suppression and whether voters have access to the ballot, the reality is, over the past 25 years, we've greatly increased the convenience of voting for almost all Americans," said David Becker, the founder and executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research (CEIR), which authored the new report...

The data shows that, despite real efforts by some Republican-led legislatures to restrict access at the margins, the trend in the U.S. since 2000 has been toward making it easier to vote: Nearly 97% of voting-age American citizens now live in states that offer the option to vote before Election Day.

"The lies about early voting, the lies about voting machines and efforts in some state legislatures to roll back some of the election integrity and convenience measures that have evolved over the last several decades, those efforts almost all failed," Becker said. "In almost every single state, voters can choose to vote when they want to."

Forty-six states and Washington, D.C., offer some form of early in-person voting, the report tallied, and 37 of those jurisdictions also offer mail voting to all voters without requiring an excuse...

In 2000

In 2024

Infographic via NPR. If you go to the article, you can watch an animation of this map that shows voting availability in every election since 2000.

There are some political trends that show up in the data. Of the 14 states that don't offer mail voting to all voters, for instance, 12 have Republican-led legislatures.

-via NPR, March 19, 2024. Article continues below.

But maybe the more striking trends are geographic. Every single state in the western U.S. has offered some form of early and mail voting to all voters since 2004, according to the data. And those states span the political spectrum, from conservative Idaho to liberal California.

"It's really hard to talk about partisanship around this issue because historically there just hasn't been much," Mann said. "We've seen voting by mail and early in-person voting supported by Republican legislatures, Democratic legislatures, Republican governors, Democratic governors. We see voters in both parties use both methods." ...

In 2020, New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts all made changes to make voting more easily accessible, which have since partially or fully become permanent. Delaware is currently embroiled in a legal fight over whether it can implement early and mail voting changes this election cycle as well.

The South, with its history of slavery and Jim Crow laws, has long lagged behind when it comes to voting access. The CEIR data shows that, although some states have slowly started expanding options for voters, generally it is still the most difficult region for voters to cast a ballot.

As options nationwide have become more widely available, voters have also responded by taking advantage.

In the 2000 election, 86% of voters voted at a polling place on Election Day, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

In 2020, during the pandemic, that number dropped to less than 31% of voters. It went back up in 2022, to roughly half of the electorate, but was still in line with the two-decade trend toward more ballots being cast early.

...in reality, Becker says, more voting options actually make elections more secure and less susceptible to malicious activity or even human error.

"If there were a problem, if there were a cyber event, if there were a malfunction, if there were bad weather, if there were traffic, if there were was a power outage, you could think of all kinds of circumstances. ... The more you spread voting out over a series of days and over multiple modes, the less likely it's going to impact voters," he said...

-via NPR, March 19, 2024

[barrowsteeth]

i spent the last two days working as an election judge at an early voting site in my city. i can't believe how long the lines were at the site where i was working (average 2-3 hour wait), but other locations reported waits up to 6 hours.

in all of my years living here, i've never waited more than 30 minutes to vote -- early or on election day. it's been a long and tiring weekend but i'm ready to do it again -- earlier and for an even longer day -- on tuesday.

here are some last minute reminders/tips for those who haven't voted yet and are making their voting plan:

check your registration to verify your polling place and if there are any ID requirements

if possible, review and mark up your sample ballot and send a copy to your phone/bring it with you

arrange transportation if necessary

allow time to wait in line

coordinate with a friend to keep you company in line or bring a book

bring water and a snack if you anticipate a long wait

when you get your ballot, don't be afraid to take your time! double check your choices before finalizing your ballot

be nice to your election judges -- the vast majority of us are there because we want to help voters on election day, but if you feel you aren't being treated properly, ask if there is someone else who can help you

if you are in line at your polling place before the polls close -- STAY IN LINE

if you have problems at the polls on election day, you can contact the non-partisan voter hotline 866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683) assistance in other languages at the Protect the Vote site