#market uncertainties 2025

[drvinaybajrangiji]

Global Economic Risks Loom: What Businesses Should Expect in 2025

With the year 2025 on the horizon, businesses across the globe are gearing up for some headwinds that would impact the contours of markets and industries as they know them. With potential obstacles such as evolving market dynamics, changes in international relations, and other such issues looming, this era will be a true stress test for even the most entrenched companies. Traditional business research has its advantages but it should be complemented by the insights offered from astrology. By looking how the stars will interact during the year, the leaders of the companies will be able to understand how to overcome challenges in the future.

Economic Challenges for Businesses in 2025

For businesses gearing up to face the economic uncertainties in 2025, there is reason to be worried as both external and internal factors will play a working role. With the presence of barriers to free trade, inflation in several economies, and market suppression caused by budding technologies, economic outlooks for that time period aren’t very rosy. Businesses will have to find their footing in an emerging landscape that will be characterized by environmental-friendliness, technological advancement, and demand-led growth.

From the astrological perspective, however, the energies of the year that is about to start would be more about making corrections. It is a time in which the strategies of corporations and the economies themselves will be re-evaluated. Certain configurations of these forces are likely to bring about change in the power structure around the world with consequences for supply chains, resources and financial markets.

Source URL: https://www.vinaybajrangi.com/blog/global-economic-risks-loom-what-businesses-should-expect

[b38rman]

READ YOUR MIND ᯓ★ Ollie Bearman

tags - ollie bearman x afab!reader, friends to lovers, fluff, slight miscommunication, loosely inspired by the sabrina carpenter song of the same name

synopsis - This was definitely not on the marketing internship job offering for Prema Racing. You swore you had everything under control before this—before Ollie Bearman took up most of the weekend's agenda.

rating - teen and up readers

warnings - slightly suggestive ending

a/n - i wrote this before ollie was announced as a 2025 f1 driver and the slight implications of dread related to that uncertainty are littered throughout this work so just keep that in mind (or not) enjoy!

Thursday — Spain, 2024

The unmistakable sound of the hotel doorbell rang through your room. Admittedly, the best time to go to sleep had already passed you by at this point, considering the 7 AM lobby call time the team had for you. Unfortunately, the restlessness that could only be attributed to constant location changes seeped into your bones.

You got up, trying to dispell the feeling populating your gut. Perhaps, more than anything, it was the dull influx of certainty. You were still learning how to get used to this.

You opened the door slightly, just enough to see who was on the other side. 

“Took you long enough.” The familiar rumble of Ollie’s voice filled your ears, as he pushed his way into your bedroom.

At this point, you were 100% sure that any of this was not part of any of the contracts Prema made you sign when they offered you the internship. No matter how much you looked between the lines of wage and non-disclosures, you wouldn’t find what you and Ollie had anywhere.

It was just that it was becoming a routine at this point. From the beginning of the season, Ollie seemingly couldn’t find a better victim than you for his late night musings. You tried to gently reprimand him at first, telling him off about his bedtime and his racing and all of the things he’d scoff at you for and turn a stubbornly deaf ear towards.

Ollie rounded the room slowly, his white sleep shirt and flannel pajamas contrasting against your worn summer camp shirt and cotton shorts. You felt overexposed, as you always did in these situations. 

“Wanna play Mario Kart?” Ollie asked, mindlessly making his way to your side of the bed.

You thought about it for a second before responding, “Nope, too tired to be that stressed out.”

Ollie hummed in acknowledgment before laying back onto your bed, phone in hand, with his legs still dangling over the edge. He always took your side of the bed, despite it very obviously being rumpled and occupied.

You climbed onto the other side and tucked yourself in under the sheets. As if on instinct, Ollie moved his head upward, resting it on your stomach, before locking his phone and setting it on his chest. 

“I just feel a bit odd, you know? Like everyone says so many good things about me but really, I haven’t done anything.” He looked to the ceiling as he rambled. “I have another FP1 tomorrow and all I can think about is how I don’t know how to be what people want me to be. I don’t know how to keep being good, or how to really be good; will people even look back and think I was good?” 

“That’s some bad imposter syndrome you got there, huh?” You stretched your hand out and lightly laid it on his head, stretching your fingers against the expanse of brown waves. Ollie leaned into the touch, shutting his eyes.

“The only thing that should matter is who you want to be.” You grinned fondly at him, even if he couldn’t see it. “Besides, you’re way too young to be worrying stuff like that.”

“We’re the same age.” He opened his eyes just to look at you as he said that. 

“And do you see me worrying about my legacy?” You joked, earning a toothy smile and a roll of eyes from Ollie. 

At every moment you’ve spent with Ollie so far, he’s not felt like someone that appears on national television broadcasts or on carefully curated Pinterest boards. You could almost see yourself looking across the lecture hall, seeing him, and wondering if he was really paying attention or just browsing on his laptop.

Instead, he was one of the boys you’d keep track of social media appearances for. You managed his filming schedules for both long-form and short-form videos, and wove through seas of people and motorhomes with him to find a spot to record his little post-race briefs. You weren’t assigned to him specifically, but it usually was you and him most of the time.

“It’s, um, getting late.” You tried not to be too awkward about untangling your hand from Ollie’s hair. “I think you should get some rest.”

You waited for him to complete the final part of this routine you had going, wherein he’d sleepily walk to his own bedroom and you’d fall asleep in your own fully warmed bed. 

Except for the fact that he didn’t do that at all. 

“Could I just stay here? I don’t really want to be alone right now.” You felt Ollie shift ever so slightly from where he was, head still resting on you.

Questions on professionality and ethics rang through your mind one after another. 

“Are you sure?” Was all you could muster. 

Ollie seemed to recognize your concern without you voicing it. After all, you weren’t particularly discreet about any of it. 

“I’ll just wake up earlier, it’ll be fine.” He finally raised his head and began setting an alarm for five in the morning. Part of you knew it was futile. Considering everything, it was a bold move, considering that it was just past midnight.

You watched him mindlessly, as he turned all the lights off, only leaving the light from the bathroom peaking out through a slight opening in its door. For a moment, you let yourself think of a time and place where this was a normal occurrence—one where him curling up in bed next to you in near complete darkness felt like a grounding force instead of a guilt-inducing one.

You turned to face away from where he was laying, opting to try and not make this any weirder than it could be. 

“Good night.” He said regardless. “Sweet dreams.” He said, in a softer voice, almost as if he didn’t want you to hear him. 

You could feel his body near yours, almost as if the full size bed was too cramped for the two of you. 

“Sweet dreams, Ollie.” You replied.

You felt him roll over to his back as you drifted off to sleep. 

Friday

Your eyes shot open at the sound of an iPhone alarm going off, obviously being the one Ollie set a few hours prior. What you didn’t immediately process was the arm wrapped around your waist, and the soft snores coming from the face that was nuzzled into your hair. Your heart was pounding. 

“Ollie,” You lightly shook the arm that was over you. “Ollie, wake up.”

You were only met with a long grunt and a tightened grip.

“Ollie, please, come on.” You tried sitting up to give him a bit more of a hint, displacing his arm on you.

Finally, he rolled over, turning off his alarm. The sun was barely out yet, and you saw him squinting at you through his sleepy eyes. 

“I don’t want to go.” He said softly and groggily, toying with a loose string on your worn shirt. 

“You have to.” You replied with every ounce of control in your body.

Ollie grunted faintly before stretching his arms over his head, silently sitting up and making his way out of the door as quickly as he came through it. 

Everything kept moving into the next day. You’d comprehensively briefed Kimi in the morning on his share of marketing activities over breakfast and sneaked some Live at Prema footage here and there, with Ollie notably paying less attention and getting called by some F1 media members midway. 

The constant elephant in the room was the tinge of disappointment the team felt due to Ollie’s slightly lackluster feeder performances in direct comparison to all of the F1 hype surrounding him, which no amount of sarcastic humor from the team could conceal. 

Despite everything that happened the night prior, everything remained calm and professional (he barely acknowledged you outside of what he needed to do, which was both a relief and a punch to the gut). 

Between photoshoots and practice sessions, you’d spotted Ollie from afar. Barely anyone could get a hold of him after free practice, as he was justifiably rushing between garages. 

He was up and down the paddock clad in his black Haas shirt, clearly moving with an air of confidence that filled your chest with something you couldn’t describe. This Ollie felt worlds away, which brought you as much joy and pride as it did a hint of melancholy. You were still figuring out what he was making you feel, but at times like this, he felt worlds away.

You were pulled away from your thoughts as quickly as they came to you, as you engrossed yourself in content with the F1 Academy drivers. When you weren’t doing that, you were organizing paperwork, analyzing metrics, and sifting through footage on your phone and camera.

The feeling you suppressed earlier only returned as the F1 cars hit the track. You thought about how near he felt at present, just at touching distance in the space between your hotel room and Grisignano de Zocco; but you also thought about how faraway everything would become after Prema, and how much you’d have to feel if you allowed yourself to let your guard down around Ollie.

After all, every sane racing driver would hope that feeder wouldn’t be forever. Deep inside you, though, you wished this feeling wouldn’t just be hidden in the footnotes of what would become Ollie’s career. Nevertheless, the sheer idea of wanting someone who was literally the face of a future generation of racing amidst the backdrop of him being capable of being wanted by every other person in the world felt incredibly absurd and daunting to say the least. 

(The two of you weren’t even anything. You weren’t really sure about these thoughts.)

After your rumination and the inevitable conclusion of the free practice session, you continued your work as you were directed to. It was entirely a coincidence, though, that your next duties included bringing parts of Ollie’s race kit and his water to his area in the shared driver’s area in preparation for qualifying. As every internship went, you often had miscellaneous work to fulfill.

Kimi had already finished his personal preparations for qualifying, already looking over last minute data, while Ollie was running late due to his prior commitment. The air was undeniably stress-ridden, as your first real encounter of the race day with Ollie was him scrambling to get into his overalls and suit, but you set everything down calmly while pointedly avoiding eye contact.

“Was starting to think you didn’t miss me at all.” Ollie was the first to break the silence, imploring you to look up at him.

Warmth filled your body at his words. For a moment, you worried that he knew he had some type of effect on you, but you quickly pulled yourself together mentally. 

“One less person to persuade to listen to my content briefs.” You shrugged, smiling at him playfully, almost daring him to retaliate. 

As the rush caught up to both of you, the only cohesive answer to your banter that he gave you before exiting into the garage was a soft squeeze on your forearm. 

“We’re friends, right?” Ollie asked, already tucking himself into your bed without hesitation.

Once Ollie was done slumping over in qualifying debriefs with the team, he made his way to your room again. It was the same routine as last night, just with a lot less talking.

The thing is, you weren’t saying anything either. That in itself said a lot.

You looked at him, eyebrows scrunched together. “Yes?”

Well, you were sharing a bed, tucked under the same sheets, staring face to face at each other in the dim yellow light of your Barcelona hotel room. 

“Maybe? I don’t know, Ollie—“ You second-guessed for a moment before continuing, “—I’m literally an intern. We work together, technically.” 

Ollie’s face twisted into something unreadable. His eyes shifted to the side as he mouthed the word ‘technically’ under his breath. 

“I mean, I guess we could be friends if you want.” You followed up. God, you felt ridiculous for having a conversation that sounded like this. 

He took a breath, deep and slow. “I want a lot of things,”He answered.

Ollie looked at right you, eyes so big, bright, and endless.

“I know.” You replied impulsively, in a voice barely above a whisper. 

He got so dangerously close to you that you could feel the warmths of his breaths on your face. 

“You don’t.” The weight of his gaze felt like it was melting you from the inside out. “You really don’t.” 

Ollie closed the gap between the two of you, his dry lips engulfing yours for what felt like an eternity, despite it being maybe a five-second peck at most. When he pulled away, you were breathing like he’d taken all of the air out of your lungs just from the sheer pace your heart was beating at.

A look of uncertainty flashed across his almost annoyingly pretty face. The kiss was so sweet, and you hated to be the one to make him question himself.

“We shouldn’t.” You said in conjuction with your uncontrollable heartbeats and air-filled breaths. 

“Then tell me you don’t want this.” Ollie challenged, laying one calloused, warm hand on your cheek.

“Ollie—“ You tried to protest. Every logical part of your brain was telling you how wrong all of this was, and how stupid you were for letting this happen in the first place.

In spite of all that, you couldn’t bring yourself to say it. You couldn’t lie to him for the life of you. 

You wanted this so bad. All you could do was want.

You laid your cold hand atop the one cupping your face, and let yourself look back at the earnest look on his face. You felt overexposed, sensitive all over like you’d been put out in the sun for too long.

“Please.” You could barley manage words, but you finally let yourself lean into him to erase every seed of doubt planted in his mind. 

The movement of your lips against one another quickly turned hot and heavy, and you let Ollie take and take everything he could’ve wanted. His hand wandered down to your neck and achingly close to your chest, as his kisses migrated down to your neck.

“We—ah—we really shouldn’t be doing this,” You weakly attempted to be rational, even if your hand was tangled in his hair and heat was quickly pooling between your thighs.

In response, he dove right below your collar bone, beginning with a bite and continuing with not-so-subtly marking you there, coaxing a mix between a gasp, wimper, and a soft moan out of you. 

It was glaringly obvious that he didn’t care all that much.

[tendercherie]

some reflections and comtemplations

2024 was a year of pain and growth, but I’d like to celebrate some of the highs:

I received the baby, a symbol of luck and prosperity, in a King cake a friend brought back from Mardi Gras.

I got a 2nd job selling bread at a farmer’s market.

I saw my brother get married to the love of his life.

My grandparent’s house sold after 3 years in limbo. Saying goodbye to it felt like I was mourning them all over again, but their frugality and initial investment in building a beautiful home paid off to all of their loved ones, including myself.

I moved out from a situation (and ended a friendship) that was not serving me anymore. I couldn’t afford to live by myself so I moved back in with my parents (very difficult emotionally, but now I get to live with Joe AND Oliver)!

Other things to celebrate

- bought my very first car!!!

- finding out I’ll be an aunt for the first time!!

- graduated from a leadership course at work

- applied for a program that is allowing me to move across the country in 2025

- opened this fortune cookie this morning

I hope that the coming year is as full of moments of joy, but I know life is full of uncertainties. I also know that I am capable of overcoming whatever may come my way.

Sending the same wishes of prosperity and wellness to you and your loved ones in 2025.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

An upwelling of outrage spreads across America

January 29, 2025

Robert B. Hubbell

Trump plunged America into chaos on Tuesday as the implications of his unconstitutional “freeze” on federal grants and loans began to sink in. In a gigantic miscalculation, Trump risked driving the US economy into a tailspin that would take years to overcome.

Or not.

Trump has the opportunity to blink (voluntarily or involuntarily)—but that window is closing rapidly. There are three offramps to this crisis caused by his illegal “freeze” on all federal grants and loans:

Public outrage will force Trump to retreat. A massive upwelling of public outrage is spreading across America. It may take a day or two for MAGA members of Congress to absorb the outrage from their constituents who suddenly realize Trump's thoughtless action has threatened their constituent’s economic security. Millions of Americans have been plunged into uncertainty over government benefits, loans, grants, and payments. They are letting their representatives know how they feel. See Politico, Trump's spending freeze spreads chaos across US. Indivisible has called on congressional Democrats to oppose all nominees until Trump repeals the unconstitutional freeze, saying, “Shut down the Senate.”

The markets may tell Trump to retreat. In a day or two, the money managers on Wall Street will realize that freezing government benefits to seniors, students, veterans, families, government contractors, and people in general will cause a sudden, massive contraction in consumer spending. A shrinking economy will instill fear in the most bullish fund managers. If the markets drop over worries of recession, Trump will hear from the only constituency he fears: Megadonors upset over losses in their portfolios.

Private litigants should be able to obtain an injunction. It is also possible that a judge will pick up a copy of the Constitution and read it. If they do so, they will grant a permanent injunction against Trump's unconstitutional order. On Tuesday, a federal judge granted an “administrative stay,” but that stay was ambiguous and limited. The stay was designed to allow the parties to submit briefing for a hearing next Monday. Moreover, the stay appeared to allow some portions of the “freeze” to remain in effect. See CNN, Judge temporarily blocks part of Trump administration’s plans to freeze federal aid.

Trump attempted to quiet the growing sense of panic by claiming that the freeze would not affect individuals receiving “direct assistance” from the federal government. That assurance is illusory because most federal grants and loans are not paid directly to individuals but rather, are paid through states, federal agencies, and third-party programs that manage federal grants and loans—e.g., Head Start, scientific research grants, federal infrastructure projects, educational subsidies to state schools, programs to support and house veterans.

And despite the assurances from the White House that “direct assistance” to individuals would not be affected, the facts proved otherwise. The Medicaid portal was closed to states (who administer Medicaid funds) for much of the day. See Quartz, Trump Medicaid freeze locks 72 million Americans out of their health insurance. The administration claimed that the shutdown of the Medicaid portal was a “fluke” unrelated to the freeze—a lie so transparent it hurts to repeat it.

Here is the (semi) good news: The Trump administration has already begun to walk-back the reach of the ill-considered freeze, claiming that the following grants and loans are not affected by the freeze: Medicaid, student loans, small business loans, and SNAP food assistance. It is likely that as the media and constituents identify more crucial programs—like food inspection, air traffic control improvements, law enforcement subsidies, veterans’ programs--the administration will make case-by-case exceptions that will swallow the rule.

Although millions of Americans may suffer economic hardship and extreme anxiety in the short term, the financial crisis of withholding hundreds of billions of dollars with no notice may be averted. But the constitutional crisis remains front and center. We cannot allow the constitutional questions to be lost in the understandable focus on the financial implications of Trump's order.

Trump's order is unconstitutional—and it is important that we not lose sight of that fact

Many in the media are downplaying the illegality and unconstitutionality of Trump's “freeze” order. Andrea Mitchell of MSNBC described the illegal order as “controversial.” The New York Times covered the freeze order as a political kerfuffle: “Trump’s ‘Flood the Zone’ Strategy Leaves Opponents Gasping in Outrage.” The NYTimes Editorial Board had nothing to say about Trump's blatant effort to rewrite the Constitution by demoting Congress to an advisory body subject to being overridden on presidential whim.

Congressional Republicans defended the order’s legality. The few Republicans who criticized the order did so only on the ground that it “went too far” in affecting their constituents. Susan Collins said,

I think the administration needs to be more selective and look at it one department at a time, for example. But make sure important direct service programs are not affected.

Here’s the problem with Susan Collins’s analysis: The order is unconstitutional not because it is overbroad but because the president has no authority to freeze funds appropriated by Congress. Period. See ABC News, Trump funding freeze a blatant violation of Constitution, federal law: Legal experts.

As I wrote yesterday, we need to set aside euphemisms and niceties in raising the alarm. Rebecca Solnit (of The Guardian) rose to the challenge with a post on BlueSky:

[T]hat was a coup last night in case no one mentioned that to you. The executive branch seized the power of the purse the Constitution gave to Congress, which is a pretty authoritarian / illegal consolidation of powers move. Time to go yell at your reps, the media, etc.

Senator Angus King of Maine said,

This is a profound constitutional issue. What happened last night is the most direct assault on the authority of Congress, I believe, in the history of the United States.

See Charles P. Pierce, Esquire, Trump’s Federal Grant Freeze Looks Like an Assault on the Authority of Congress.

The grassroots organization Indivisible likewise pulled no punches with a special alert to its members, headlined: Trump’s Dictatorial Power Grab: Chaos, Cruelty, and Constitutional Collapse.

Indivisible wrote:

Congress Controls Federal Spending. The Constitution explicitly gives Congress—not the president—the power to allocate and control federal funds. By freezing funds Congress appropriated, Trump is undermining a foundational principle of democracy. The Impoundment Control Act (ICA). Enacted after Nixon’s abuses, the ICA explicitly prohibits the president from withholding funds appropriated by Congress without following a strict process. Trump has not followed this process, and in many cases, the ICA outright bars the impoundment of these funds.

Indivisible suggests a “no holds barred” response (with which I wholeheartedly agree):

Refuse to Negotiate. Trump is using federal programs as hostages in a power grab. Democrats must refuse to engage in any funding or debt ceiling negotiations while this freeze remains in place. No compromises with dictatorship. Sound the Alarm. Every senator must become a megaphone for what’s at stake. Go on TV, hold town halls, and flood social media with the stories of families who will lose food, homes, and healthcare because of Trump’s chaos. Back Legal Challenges. Support every lawsuit challenging this freeze. File amicus briefs, amplify cases, and make it clear this isn’t just morally wrong—it’s illegal.

All good suggestions. And the point about backing legal challenges may be the best way to fight this power grab. US District Judge Loren L. AliKhan issued a short-term administrative stay to allow further briefing on an application for an injunction. See CNN, Judge temporarily blocks part of Trump administration’s plans to freeze federal aid.

The lawsuit before Judge AliKhan makes an important point: The memo was issued by the Acting Director of the OMB. Per the lawsuit, the OMB has no authority to direct agencies to freeze funds appropriated by Congress. Per the plaintiffs in the lawsuit:

The [OMB] Memo fails to explain the source of (the Office of Management and Budget’s) purported legal authority to gut every program in the federal government.

Good point. While the OMB is integral to the preparation and monitoring of congressional appropriations, OMB has no authority to override a congressional appropriation. See, generally, Congressional Research Service, Office of Management and Budget (OMB): An Overview.

Here are the takeaways:

First, the freeze threatens the separation of powers specified in the Constitution. We must not allow that point to be lost in the chaos and pain that the illegal order will cause.

Second, the upwelling of public outrage spreading across America is already having an impact! This is the path forward! We must do more of it consistently over the long term. We are off to a good start!

[Robert B. Hubbell Newsletter]

[jeffhirsch]

Post-Election Year Q1 Weak Spot Volatility Happens

China’s DeepSeek AI panic is just another trigger for a market selloff in the Q1 weak spot of Year 1 of the 4-Year Cycle. Following the solid gains of typical pre-election and election years, the flat to mildly negative Q1 of post-election years is a notable transition. Breaking the 4-year cycle down by quarterly performance in this bar chart gives a clear view of Q1-post-election-year weakness.

Potential reasons for this lull in the 4-year cycle are numerous, but the uncertainties of a new administration coming to Washington, D.C. are high on the list. The obvious reset of the cycle is a strong possibility. Two years of solid gains, fueled by election spending, result in elevated market valuation. This combination of big gains and an uncertain outlook has led to profit taking in the past and it is playing a role now. Not to mention economic, geopolitical, and monetary policy concerns.

But prospects for 2025 remain encouraging. Post-election years have improved since WWII and since 1985 DJIA averages a gain of 17.2% with eight up years and two down. This is the best average gain of the four-year cycle over this period. Despite today’s selloff my Base Case 2025 Forecast scenario is still the most likely with full-year 2025 gains of 8-12%. But gains are not as likely to be as free flowing as they were over the past two years and volatility is likely to remain elevated.

[mariacallous]

On Tuesday morning, five days after Hurricane Helene ripped through Boone, North Carolina, David Marlett was on his way to the campus of Appalachian State University. The managing director of the university’s Brantley Risk & Insurance Center, Marlett was planning to spend the day working with his colleagues to help students and community members understand their insurance policies and file claims in the wake of the storm. He didn’t sound hopeful. “I’m dreading it,” he said. “So many people are just not going to have coverage.”

Helene made landfall southeast of Tallahassee, Florida, last week with winds up to 140 miles per hour, downing trees and bringing record-breaking storm surges to areas along the Gulf Coast before charging up through Georgia. But perhaps its most shocking impacts have been on inland North Carolina, where it first started raining while the storm was still over Mexico. At least 57 people are dead in Buncombe County in the west of the state alone. Communities like Boone received dozens of inches of rainfall despite being hundreds of miles from the coast. Waters rose in main streets, sinkholes and mudslides wreaked havoc, and major roads were blocked, flooded, or degraded by the storm.

Now, there’s a good chance that many homeowners in North Carolina won’t see any payouts from their insurance companies—even if they have policies they thought were comprehensive.

“The property insurance market for homes was already a patchwork system that really doesn’t make a lot of sense,” Marlett says. “Now you’re adding in the last couple of years of economic uncertainty, inflation, climate change, population migration—it’s just an unbelievably bad combination happening all at once.”

For North Carolinians, the issue right now has to do with what, exactly, private insurance is on the hook for when it comes to a storm. An average homeowner policy covers damage from wind, but private homeowners’ insurance plans in the US do not cover flooding. Instead, homeowners in areas at risk of flooding usually purchase plans from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

The way a hurricane wreaks havoc on a state is a crucial deciding factor for insurers’ wallets. Hurricane Ian, which hit Florida as a category 4 storm with some of the highest wind speeds on record, caused $63 billion in private insurance claims. In contrast, the bulk of the $17 billion in damage caused by 2018’s Hurricane Florence, which tore up the North Carolina coast, was water damage, not wind; as a result, private insurers largely avoided picking up the check for that disaster.

This breakout of flood insurance from home policies dates back to the 1940s, says Donald Hornstein, a law professor at the University of North Carolina and a member of the board of directors of the North Carolina Insurance Underwriting Association. Private insurance companies decided that they did not have enough data to be able to accurately predict flooding and therefore could not insure it. “In some ways, that calculation of 50 years ago is still the calculation insurers make today,” he says.

While the NFIP, which was created in the late 1960s, provides virtually the only backup against flood damage, the program is saddled with debt and has become a political hot potato. (Project 2025, for instance, recommends phasing out the program entirely and replacing it with private options.) Part of the problem with the NFIP is low uptake. Across the country, FEMA statistics show that just 4 percent of homeowners have flood insurance. Some areas hit by Helene in Appalachia, initial statistics show, have less than 2.5 percent of homeowners signed up for the federal program.

“Even in coastal areas, not many people buy that, much less here in the mountains,” Marlett says. “People have never seemed to fully understand that flood is a separate policy.”

Flooding is not unprecedented in the mountains of North Carolina: Hurricane Ivan swept through Appalachia in 2004, and flash floods from rivers are not unheard of. Purchasing flood insurance is mandatory with a government-backed mortgage in some areas of the country, based on flood zones set by FEMA. But the data is based on extremely outdated floodplain maps that have not taken the most recent climate science on record rainfall into account.

“The biggest non-secret in Washington for decades is how hopelessly out of date these flood maps are,” Hornstein says.

Even if water wasn’t the cause of destruction for some homeowners in North Carolina, the storm’s disastrous mudslides—another risk supercharged by climate change—may not be covered either. Many home insurance policies have carve-outs for what are known as “earth movements,” which includes landslides, sinkholes, and earthquakes. In some states, like California, insurers are mandated to offer additional earthquake insurance, and homeowners can purchase private additional policies that cover earth movements. But in a state like North Carolina, where earthquake risk is extremely low, homeowners may not even know that such policies exist.

It’s also been a tough few years for the insurance industry across the country. A New York Times analysis from May showed that homeowners’ insurers lost money in 18 states in 2023—up from eight states in 2013—largely thanks to expensive disasters like hurricanes and wildfires. Payouts are increasingly costing insurers more than they are getting in premiums. Homeowners are seeing their policies jump as a result: According to statistics compiled by insurance comparison shopping site Insurify, the average annual cost of home insurance climbed nearly 20 percent between 2021 and 2023. In Florida, which has the highest insurance costs in the country, the average homeowner paid over $10,000 a year in 2023—more than $8,600 above the national rate.

Florida has made headlines in recent months as ground zero for the climate-change insurance crisis. More than 30 insurance companies have either fully or partially pulled out of Florida over the past few years, including big names like Farmers’ and AAA, after mounting losses from repeated major hurricanes like 2022’s Ian, the most expensive natural disaster in the state’s history. Florida’s insurer of last resort, now saddled with risk from multiple homeowners, has proposed a rate increase of 14 percent, set to go into effect next year.

In comparison, North Carolina’s insurance market looks pretty good. No insurers have exited the state since 2008, while homeowners pay an average of $2,100 per year—high, but avoiding the sky-high rates of states like Florida, California, and Texas.

“What traditionally has happened is that there’s a rate increase every few years of 8 to 9 percent for homeowner’s insurance,” says Hornstein. “That has kept the market stable, especially when it comes to the coast.”

But as natural disasters of all kinds mount, it’s tough to see a way forward for insurance business as usual. The NFIP is undergoing a series of changes to update the way it calculates rates for flood insurance—but it faces political minefields in potentially expanding the number of homeowners mandated to buy policies. What’s more, many homeowners are seeing the prices for their flood insurance rise as the NFIP adjusts its rates for existing floodplains using new climate models.

Many experts agree that the private market needs to reflect in some way the true cost of living in a disaster-prone area: in other words, it should be more expensive for people to move to a city where it’s more likely your house will be wiped off the map by a storm. The cost of climate change does not seem to be a deterrent in Florida, one of the fastest-growing states in the country, where coastal regions like Panama City, Jacksonville, and Port St. Lucie are booming. (Some research suggests that the mere existence of the NFIP shielded policyholders from the true costs of living in flood-prone areas.)

Asheville, at the heart of Buncombe County, was once hailed as a climate haven safe from disasters; the city is now reeling in the wake of Helene. For many homeowners, small business owners, and renters in western North Carolina, the damage from Helene will be life-changing. FEMA payouts may bring, at best, only a fraction of what a home would be worth. Auto insurance generally covers all types of damage, including flooding—a small bright spot of relief, but not enough to offset the loss of a family’s main asset.

“People at the coast, at some point after the nth storm, they start to get the message,” Hornstein says. “But for people in the western part of the state, this is just Armageddon. And you can certainly forgive them for not having before appreciated the fine points of these impenetrable contracts.”

Marlett says that there are models for insurance that are designed to better withstand the challenges of climate change. New Zealand, for instance, offers policies that cover all types of damage that could happen to your house; while these policies are increasingly tailored price-wise to different types of risk, there’s no chance a homeowner would experience a climate disaster not covered by their existing policies. But it’s hard, he says, to see the US system getting the wholesale overhaul it needs, given how long the piecemeal system has been in place.

“I sound so pessimistic,” he said. “I’m normally an optimistic person.”

[collapsedsquid]

But the other natural reaction you might have to seeing the same contract trade at different prices in different locations would be: Well, are they the same contract? What if “Donald Trump will win the election” is worth more — that is, has a higher probability — on Polymarket than it does elsewhere? That seems implausible: There is only one presidential election, and Trump will either win it or he won’t. But that might not be exactly right. There is some history of epistemic uncertainty when Donald Trump loses elections. Different prediction markets might resolve that uncertainty in different ways.

Here is Kalshi’s 2024 Donald Trump election contract, whose rules specify that “If Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.” Here is Polymarket’s equivalent (but higher-priced) contract, which sounds fairly similar: The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Fun decisions in an election that might have legal challenges, hell this thing based on media calls might have had issues even in 2000.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Time for Brazil to accelerate trade talks with Asia

Asian nations beyond China present opportunities amid U.S. and European protectionism

When former French Prime Minister Michel Barnier went to Brussels to advocate for halting the European Union-Mercosur trade agreement, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen countered: “If we don’t sign the treaty, China will take our place.”

However, in the name of French agricultural protectionism, French Trade Minister Sophie Primas argued that the agreement would not weaken the influence of China or the United States in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, just as a failure in the agreement would not prevent Europeans and French from being present in these countries.

If France is determined to sacrifice preferential access to Mercosur and blow up a crucial economic and geopolitical deal, Europe is going to need all the luck it can get. The Federation of German Industries (BDI) recently reported that the European industry is facing its third consecutive year of recession. It predicts that exports from emerging markets could increase by 5%, compared to the stagnation of exports from developed countries. At the same time, France is one of the largest exporters in agribusiness.

In the United States, Donald Trump threatens to open a unilateral and protectionist toolbox in 2025. The U.S. will be an additional source of uncertainty and instability for Europe and globally. Mr. Trump has already threatened tariff increases against Mexico, Canada, China, and BRICS nations. Brazil will be subject to this situation, compounded by the rise of restrictive measures on global trade.

In this turbulent and unstable scenario, accelerating Brazil’s trade diversification towards Asia is evident. All trade data, in general, and current and future growth figures are more favorable in Asia, excluding China. The OECD projects growth of 6.9% for India next year and 5.2% for Indonesia, for example.

Continue reading.

[theomeganerd]

Video Game News Stories for February 26th, 2024

Legal Battles Rock the Industry:

Call of Duty Lawsuit Challenges Esports Dominance: A group of gamers sent shockwaves through the esports community by filing a lawsuit against Activision Blizzard, Inc., accusing the company of monopolizing control over Call of Duty esports leagues and tournaments. This legal action could have far-reaching consequences, potentially forcing Activision to adjust its esports strategy and pave the way for a more competitive environment.

Platform Shifts and Strategic Moves:

Microsoft Embraces Multiplatform Strategy: In a surprising turn of events, Microsoft Corporation announced plans to release four upcoming Xbox titles on external platforms, including PC and potentially even rival consoles like Sony's PlayStation. This move signifies a significant departure from the company's longstanding strategy of platform exclusivity, a cornerstone of the "console wars." The new approach could lead to wider accessibility for Xbox games, potentially attracting new demographics and impacting development strategies across platforms in the face of increased competition.

Sony Adjusts PS5 Sales Target, Prepares for IPO: Sony Interactive Entertainment Inc. adjusted its PlayStation 5 sales target downwards, citing ongoing supply chain disruptions and economic uncertainties. This news comes alongside reports that the company is planning an initial public offering (IPO) for its financial unit in 2025. The revised sales target suggests potential adjustments to Sony's production and distribution strategies in the coming months, while the planned IPO could be a strategic move to raise capital for future endeavors.

Beyond the Headlines:

Nintendo Switch 2 Rumors Gain Momentum: Speculation surrounding the potential launch of a successor to the hugely successful Nintendo Switch console later this year continues to gather steam. Fans eagerly await official announcements from Nintendo regarding the next iteration of the popular platform, with potential implications for the continued success of the Switch franchise and the broader handheld gaming market.

Elden Ring Mobile Version: Speculation Ignites Fan Interest: Rumors of a mobile version of the critically acclaimed game Elden Ring are circulating online, sparking excitement among fans who desire to experience the title on the go. While unconfirmed, the prospect has captivated the gaming community, leading to discussions about the feasibility of adapting the game's complex mechanics to mobile platforms and the potential impact on mobile gaming trends.

"Princess Peach: Showtime" Generates Positive Buzz: The recent Nintendo Direct Partner Showcase unveiled "Princess Peach: Showtime," a new title receiving positive first impressions for its innovative gameplay and engaging story. This upcoming release has garnered significant interest within the gaming community, particularly among fans of the Super Mario franchise, potentially influencing player expectations and pre-order trends.

This Week's Video Game Releases (February 26 - March 2, 2024):

February 28, 2024:

Brothers: A Tale of Two Sons Remake (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PC)

Cook, Serve, Delicious! (Xbox Series X/S, Xbox One)

Star Wars: Dark Forces Remaster (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Switch, PC)

Additional News Stories:

Call of Duty Servers Crash, Player Stats Reset: Adding to the woes of Call of Duty players, server outages caused frustration and confusion due to data resets.

PlayStation VR 2 Expands Horizons with PC Support: In a move that may delight PC VR enthusiasts, Sony announced that PlayStation VR 2 will support PC games sometime in 2024, potentially expanding its player base.

Fortnite Emote Faces Lawsuit: A choreographer filed a lawsuit against Epic Games, claiming their copyrighted dance moves were used in a Fortnite emote without proper permission, raising discussions about intellectual property rights and fair use within the gaming industry.

[bloghrexach]

💥 … Excellent question!! - The coming year will usher in pain, uncertainty, restlessness, inequality and so much more!!

By Colin Tiyani Anderson, Artist, 3D Creatot, from LinkedIn …

“Where is humanity heading? With the imminent change in U.S. leadership, 2025 threatens to be an ominous year. It's as if the Ruling Class feel emboldened by what they've managed to get away with already. Now they are about to double-down.

The Ruling Class have been committing Genocide in Gaza for over a year using our tax dollars. Alarmed at the protests of the 99%, they used riot police and compromised university leadership to restrict free speech for the pro-Palestinian movement.

The Ruling Class billionaires are currently scheming in Washington on how to steal even more from the poor to give to the rich. They can call it "Government Efficiency." For ordinary people, it's called exacerbated, extreme inequality, or, more simply, theft.

Luigi Mangione demonstrated that the Ruling Class care a million times more for a single member of the 1% than the tens of thousands of working poor who are denied healthcare in order to fuel their bloated profits.

Don't get suckered into falling for Trump's phoney culture wars. Muslims and minorities and migrants are not your enemy. There's absolutely nothing there. It's a cynical, irrelevant distraction to pull your attention away from the real game: reverse Robin Hood - steal from the poor and give to the rich.

You only need to take a look at Trump's billionaire political appointees to see where his allegiance lies. The chickens voted for the fox. The mice voted for the cat. The people voted for a sullen leech.

“And then many things became very clear... we learned perfectly that the life of a single human being is worth millions of times more than all the property of the richest man on earth.”

― Ernesto Che Guevara!!

In a decent society, Palestinians would be valued as much as Israelis and Luigi Mangione would be valued as much as Brian Thompson. The inherent racism of Zionism and the inherent greed of free market capitalism is tearing society apart. Oligarchs are inherently destabilising. Standing up for human rights means fighting, taxing, and holding to account the Ruling Class.” … 💥

@hrexach

[shadesofdigital]

Don't quit. Every successful entrepreneur has faced challenges, setbacks, and self-doubt. It's the determination to keep going that sets them apart.

With just a few months until 2025, now's the perfect time to start building your business. Don't let fear or uncertainty hold you back. Keep pushing forward, and watch your dreams become reality.

Ready to keep going? Explore our collection of digital products, merchandise, and affiliate marketing opportunities designed to help you on your journey.

Save this post for a daily dose of motivation. Leave a comment below sharing your biggest challenge and how you're overcoming it. Share this post to inspire others to never give up.

[mysmorgasbordoffantabulosa]

What are your thoughts on BTS's future and TK's future with BTS? I have a gut feeling BTS aren't going to reconvene in 2025. Especially with Bang's uncertainty shown in the press conference.

Maybe TK aren't re-signing? Idk what to think

Ok this ask has been in my drafts for nearly a fortnight. Firstly, I wanted to apoligise to the original sender that it took me this long to get sorted. Last week was busy with work and I've also had to deal with a tonne of asks too. So apologies.

This post is also F.A.O. @nonalisa @lullaby-of-taekook @taekookgotjamz  who asked about my thoughts so to you and the rest of you...

First, I'll give a bit of context and then my thoughts on what might be happening now and could happen in the future....

First, the context:

This will be broken up into 3 parts...

2018 & the 2020 contract

Fake Rumours about contracts and lack of support

What HYBE are saying

2018 & the New 2020 contract.

We can't talk about the future without looking back to the previous renegotiation.

In 2017, BTS were close to breaking point and in early 2018 contemplating disbandment. Under this cloud BigHit initiated negotiations with BTS, over several months the boys renegotitated there second phase contract, due to start in June 2020, and most likely an adjustment to the then current contract.

I have speculated that BTS, and in particular Taekook, used Dispatch to hint at them being a couple as form of contract negotiation.

Whatever happened BTS re-signed.

It should be noted that BH suggested that BTS use their own lawyers and even to consult with their parents about the contract proposals.

I feel the new contract afforded BTS a lot more autonomy and control over their futures, content and lives. First indications of this was the two-month break in 2019.

It's clear from June 2020 there is a stark change in how the boys are presented and how they interact both in front and behind the camera.

Most reports indicated that the new contract was until 2026

Major news outlets would not report that date unless it came directly from BH.

Then in 2020 during the IPO of BH on the Korean Stock Market, this came out...

So why the two dates? My initial thought was a 5 year contract with an option to extent for 2 years. However, I now think the answer is a lot simpler, BTS signed a 5 year deal which factored in 2 year time out for military enlistment, so there would be an automatic extension to 2026, hence why nearly all news outlets in 2018 mention this obvious press release date.

The Fake Rumour(s) about Contracts

Between June 2020 and now amongst some Taekookers and solo stans there is a perception that HYBE is sideling and not supporting Tae and JK.

Then, in Jan 2023, a Taekook twitter account started circulating a "blind item" claiming to be from October 2020 about how 5 members of BTS had re-signed/extended their contract, but 1 member hadn't, and another was supportive of them (despite there being not a single shred of evidence of such a blind item existing back in 2020)...

Then BANG! on 11th February, on the well-known blind item website CrazyDaysCrazyNights, the exact same blind item resurfaced but with 2023 twist that set out to villainise HYBE and Scooter Braun...

My guess, because people can submit gossip to CDCN, someone did this recently for this blind.

Following it's posting, it was clear that some Taekookers and Solo JK/Tae Stans used this blind as justification for their fav's perceived lack of support from the company (despite that not exactly being the case) and ongoing assumption that Taekook were the only ones who hadn't re-signed, and will not enlist and would leave BH after 2024. Obviously forgetting that not a few days earlier they claimed this all happened back in 2020. Odd that isn't it....

These rumours were initially compounded by JK's Lives on Weverse, where he talks about not working on his album that he's not doing much. Then within days, we hear about Tae's work and promotion of it, as well as JK going to work and rumours of a BA with Calvin Klein.

HYBE, BigHit and Band PD....

As the speculation grew - within the fandom about how supposedly some of the members, particularly Taekook weren't getting the same level of support from the company - we suddenly start seeing statements and interviews, reiterating that the company supports all members in their solo projects.

In particular, Bang PD does an interview and conference where he talks about the future of K-Pop. He specifically mentioned BTS and that they are currently in contract renewal talks with BH. So unlike the blind all the members are currently negotiating their new contract, but it's likely nothing will resolve until BTS return from enlistment.

My thoughts...

I'll break this down into BTS as a whole and what might be the key points in the contract talks, then look briefly at Taekook.

BTS

BTS back in 2018 decided to renegotiate together as 1 and got a new contract as a collective. That contract I think gave them a lot more freedom, control and opportunities for solo activities until 2024/26 from June 2020.

During this new contract negotiation, which likely started last year, it's clear they're doing the same thing. We know this because RM stated it in his Live the other day. I think the catch up with Jin last week, whilst was about catching up with him it was also about the new contract. RM also stated it would be resolved until they all return from the military.

I think the new contract is about allowing BTS to create music and go on tours together every few years and in between allow them to grow as soloists too. As well as, giving them even more control over their time and music.

This is where a new BTS Label, separate from BigHit and HYBE, could come into play. It will be like what Apple Records was like for the Beatles. However, this may be the biggest sticking point for HYBE, it would be predominantly owned by BTS, with HYBE as a minority shareholder. I also wonder if BTS want their Masters, as this would increase their control. I think HYBE want to retain as much control/profit as the can from BTS, but obviously the boys want more of that for themselves too. So, I think a compromise will be reached.

I do think HYBE will give them most of the control and freedom they want and possibly more control/ownership over their Masters.

Taekook

There is a perception in certain quarters that Tae and JK are victims and are just riding out their contract until 2024. That doesn't tally with what they and the other members have said. I definitely think all 7 re-sign with BH/HYBE in some way. But I wonder if Taekook want some specific for them included too. I could see them asking for no "fanservice" moments, but that's small fry. Could they want a managed (sort of) coming out plan? That's possible. In light of recent events, could they want HYBE to support them officially moving in together as flatmates?

These are all interesting questions and thoughts I currently have.

Final thought:

What is clear though to me, is that BTS will be re-signing with HYBE in some way, and we'll possibly get that announcement shortly after the last members return from the military.

[feedyourmind1031]

 Economic Overview: Key Market Developments

Critical Update

Sudden market shifts may occur due to significant events. Monitor trading positions and implement risk management strategies during these uncertain times.

Economic Overview

As we enter a new quarter, the market faces numerous challenges. Rising war tensions, de-dollarization efforts, and upcoming elections in the U.S., France, and Iran contribute to the uncertainty. Here’s a detailed analysis of these developments and their potential impacts.

Currency Shifts

Russia’s move to use the Chinese Yuan for international trade and the increase in gold reserves by central banks are noteworthy. While the Yuan may not replace the U.S. Dollar soon, these actions indicate strategic shifts. Gold purchases serve as a hedge against potential currency volatility.

Geopolitical Conflicts

Middle East: The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has intensified, with Iran warning of severe retaliation if Lebanon is attacked. Daily strikes continue, and countries like the U.S. and Germany have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon.

South China Sea: On June 19, 2024, Chinese coast guard officers attacked Philippine military personnel near the Second Thomas Shoal, escalating tensions. The U.S. has reaffirmed its defense treaty with the Philippines, which could lead to military involvement if violence escalates.

Korean Peninsula: North and South Korea are on edge, with Russia signing a defense treaty with North Korea. Border incidents and threats over South Korea’s potential troop deployment to Ukraine have heightened tensions.

Nuclear Brinkmanship: France and Russia’s nuclear brinkmanship is a significant risk, with both countries attempting to establish deterrent boundaries.

Economic and Market Effects

These conflicts could alter monetary power dynamics and supply chains. Expect increased oil demand and gold purchases as safe-haven assets. Silver demand will also rise due to its military applications.

Diplomatic Relations

Zimbabwe and Zambia: Tensions are high as Zimbabwe aligns more closely with Russia, accusing the U.S. of militarizing Zambia.

Election Updates

Iran: Presidential elections are nearing completion as candidates drop out.

France: The first stage of snap parliamentary elections is complete.

U.S.: The first debate between Biden and Trump was contentious, adding to the uncertainty of the upcoming election.

Natural Disaster Considerations

While not detailed here, it’s crucial to consider the impact of natural disasters on economic activities and implement strong risk management.

Key Market Data and Analysis

Final GDP: Increased from 1.3% to 1.4%.

Unemployment: Fell by 3k more than forecasted, indicating a stronger U.S. economy.

Core PCE: Decreased from 0.3% to 0.1%.

Consumer Confidence: Fell but remained above forecasted numbers.

Housing Market: New home sales dropped significantly, while pending home sales improved slightly but missed expectations.

GOLD

Gold prices remain within a range, with resistance at 2431.705 and support at 2295.536. A bullish trend is expected despite fluctuations.

SILVER

Silver prices showed growth, reaching 29.900 before settling at 29.018. Resistance is expected at 29.900, but an overall upward trend is anticipated.

DXY (Dollar Index)

The dollar index showed growth but may face weakness with the anticipated September rate cut. A bearish outlook is expected.

GBPUSD

The pound remains within a range. With potential rate cuts in both the U.K. and the U.S., significant price changes are unlikely in the near term.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar shows upward momentum but needs to break above 0.67142 to confirm this trend. Analysts predict rate cuts only in late 2025, potentially benefiting the currency.

NZDUSD

Similar to the Aussie dollar, the New Zealand dollar shows growth and may benefit from delayed rate cuts until late 2025.

EURUSD

The ECB’s cautious rate cut approach has weakened the Euro. Further cuts are expected but at a slower pace, indicating potential continued weakness.

USDJPY

Despite interventions, the USDJPY continues to grow. Watch for further interventions and economic data to gauge future movements.

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc fell after recent rate cuts. Further rate cuts are uncertain, making the USDCHF volatile.

USDCAD

The CAD showed weakness against the dollar, with analysts predicting further rate cuts. Price consolidation is expected as we await more data.

Stay informed and practice diligent risk management as we navigate these challenging market conditions. More updates to come.

[formulatalk]

Ocon Confirms Mercedes Management Amidst Hamilton's Ferrari Move Triggering Early Driver Market Shift

In a surprising twist of Formula 1's driver market, Esteban Ocon has affirmed his continued management by Mercedes amid the upheaval caused by Lewis Hamilton's move to Ferrari for the 2025 season. Hamilton's decision to depart from Mercedes, where he had achieved immense success, has set the stage for a frantic scramble among teams and drivers.

Ocon, who is currently with Alpine, emphasized his enduring ties with Mercedes, despite no longer being classified as a junior driver. He stressed the importance of focusing on track performance while acknowledging the speculation surrounding potential replacements for Hamilton at Mercedes.

"It is clear that I've got good links with Mercedes," Ocon stated. "I'm still managed by them in a way, I'm still a Merc junior even if I'm not that 'junior' anymore. But my focus goes into the racing and into the plan that we have with Alpine, and I need to focus on what's on track, which is the most important."

The unexpected move by Hamilton has accelerated the driver market's activity much earlier than anticipated, leading to a prolonged period of uncertainty regarding contract negotiations, according to Ocon.

"I knew it was going to be a crazy season, for sure," Ocon commented. "I didn't think it was going to start that early because in January it's early, but it's going to be like that all year, so you guys will have a lot of paper to write!"

Meanwhile, Ocon's teammate Pierre Gasly expressed optimism about Hamilton's move to Ferrari, believing it would invigorate Formula 1. However, Gasly also acknowledged the potential impact on his own position in the driver market, emphasizing his ambition to compete at the highest level of the sport.

"I think it's great for the sport," Gasly remarked. "It's a big move, the most successful driver of our sport leaving Mercedes after the most successful collaboration ever as a team and a driver in Formula 1."

Gasly's aspirations to compete among the elite drivers remain undeterred, as he continues to strive for success with Alpine.

"As a driver, I want to fight at the top of Formula 1," Gasly declared. "That's what I do. I've been working every single day trying to chase every single thousandth of a second, hundredth of a second for a win because I want to fight for wins."

With the landscape of Formula 1 undergoing significant changes, the forthcoming season promises excitement and intrigue as teams and drivers adapt to the evolving dynamics of the sport.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Jack Ohman

* * * * *

THOUGHTS ON DAY 1 OF NEW YEAR LESS THAN ZERO

TCinLA

Jan 01, 2025

My grand nephews Nathan (L) and Sam (R) and I want to wish all of you a good new year. Yes, it’s going to be difficult, but we’re going to win.

Over the past 50+ years, I have considered 1968 the worst political year of my life - “the year of the Great National Nervous Breakdown,” as I put it. 1968 has been replaced. 2024 is the craziest year I have lived through; speaking as an historian, it is the craziest year in American history since 1860.

I can confidently predict that 2025 is going to be crazier.

The first year of Felon34 2.0 will be more shambolic than the first year of Felon 1.0, regardless of how many of the Felon’s idiots claim the benefit of four years of experience. Felon34 and his loyalists will take power better prepared to implement a number of malicious ideas, but will make less progress and create more chaos than they did in 2017 for two simple reasons:

First, because their added experience of preparedness will be swamped by their much greater arrogance, leading them to shed guardrails, fall into obvious traps, and overreach. We’ve seen it already on every major issue that has come up over this past month.

Second, because they’ll be inheriting the country at a somewhat less-stable equilibrium than they did last time: highly prosperous, but with less room to maneuver without generating inflation or triggering a recession. The market went through its longest period of decline since 1978 two weeks ago. With the uncertainty about whether Felon34 will be able to mount his mass deportation - and the effect that will have on the economy if he pulls off even a portion of it - added to his insane threats against Panama, Canada and Greenland; his plan to slap tariffs on the rest of the world; and his general insanity - the market will respond. The market does not like uncertainty. Felon34 sees his main job as keeping the market up - to support his billionaire owners and to flim-flam the flimflammables - and he is going to quickly run into the problem that he cannot please the droolers and the market simultaneously. He knows if he fucks the market he’s screwed, and if he doesn’t deliver the promises he made at his hatealongs he’s also screwed.

My prediction: Fire and fury. By this time next year it will be “a tale told by an idiot, signifying nothing.” Felon34 is the most determined moron in US political history. And then in January 2026, the mid-term campaign begins.

The MAGA Civil War will continue in 2025. Former George W. Bush Campaign Manager Stuart Stevens, who is now a Democrat, says that people should not ignore the fact Steve Bannon turned on Elmo: “Bannon is a guy who has defined himself as a thug, and thugs must do thuggish things. I think Musk has no idea what he’s getting into when he gets in a fight with Bannon over this.” Stevens then explained that if Bannon is ever able to turn Trump against Musk as he’s trying to do, that could be a big problem for Elmo: “There’s been reporting that Musk was not a student when he got a visa, and when he made his application for naturalization he put false information on that document. That is grounds for revoking citizenship. It happens all the time. One reason why Musk is so obsessed with immigration is because he knows this. I wouldn’t bet against Steve Bannon.”

Former Trump Press Secretary Sean Spicer posted a poll on X which asked if Republicans agreed with Musk on the H-1B visas or if they agreed with Steve Bannon on it. He got over 92,000 votes, with 67% siding with Bannon over Musk.

Elmo continued his purge and punishments of right-wing accounts who disagreed with him on this. White nationalist talk show host Stew Peters (758,000 followers): “Elon Musk is STEALING money from my subscribers and LYING to them. This morning I woke up to find that he removed my blue check mark and canceled my ability to have subscribers. My subscribers were told that I canceled my subscription service and they would not be refunded for the next two weeks in which they’ve already paid X for, but which won’t allow me to provide them content. This is intentional deceit and theft.”

White nationalist Nick Fuentes: “Today X appears to have un-verified 5 more prominent critics of the H-1B program. Their checkmarks were taken, subs were refunded, and character limit reduced. This is now overt political censorship. This comes after the Project Groyper brand account and all of its affiliates were suspended last week.”

My prediction: I agree with Stuart Stevens that one should not bet against Bannon. He knows how to fight like this and Elmo doesn’t. If Bannon’s side ever gets the goods on Elmo’s immigration and naturalization, expect Elmo to be in deep shit and Felon34 will abandon him.

In closing, this is the gang - as Jeff Tiedrich described them - who could screw up a fuck in a brothel. As I like to say, they're the people who flunked the IQ test low enough to qualify for membership in MAGA. They're the Broken Toys who never learned to work and play well with others. Over the past three weeks - before they're even in office - they have screwed the pooch and munched the lunch. They couldn't pass the bill they had to pass without Democrats, and Democrats aren't going to pull their chestnuts out of the fire next time. They have till the middle of the month to fix the debt ceiling and they can't elect a speaker. There's going to be nobody there next Monday to accept the vote count of the electoral college. The odds are good the stupid sonofabitch can't get sworn into office, in which case, the position goes to the Speaker - of which there is none. Assuming they find a way through this mess, they have twelve months to do all the things they have to put through Congress - with a one-vote margin. Their leader is Donald Trump - who bankrupted a casino!

They're going to be throwing their best friend through a window, and they'll be tripping when they try to pull their pants on and falling against the dresser and knocking themselves out.

We're the side who won the Civil War and beat the Nazis and smashed the Japanese.

Act. Like. It.

[TCinLA]

[jeffhirsch]

Softer Inflation Puts January Barometer in the Black

Up Januarys are followed by up years 88.9% of the time (40/45 years) with an average S&P 500 gain of 17.0%. Perhaps the Fed was sandbagging a little over the past month, resetting the market’s expectations on rate cuts. Lower core CPI ignited stocks. Headline CPI was a tick above expectations, but even at today’s monthly 0.4% rate Inflation Projections look tame 1st half 2025. Today’s rally may end the 6-week correction that shaved 4.3% off S&P 500, 5.6% off NASDAQ, 6.8% off DJIA and 10.4% off Russell 2000.

That 10-Year Treasury yield which wreaked havoc on stocks pulled back significantly from its high a couple days ago. Sentiment, which is often a contrary indicator, especially when its bearish, has also flipped from rather frothy levels to nervous these past several weeks with Investors Intelligence Bullish % tumbling to 42.4% from a high of 62.9% in early December. Bears are up to 32.2% from 16.1% and Correction is up to 25.4% from 19.1%.

The market has also wrestled with uncertainty related to the transition to Trump 2.0 and geopolitical hotspots. Next week’s inauguration and the news today of a hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza may also be helping to alleviate some of the market’s recent jitters. Technically the market appears to have found support around the election breakout gap around S&P 500 5775.