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lonslibrary · 4 years ago

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3 moments between the crow couples during their time at hogwarts

1. an unknown part of wylan and jesper’s somewhat disastrous amortentia story comes moments after jesper pulled wylan in for a kiss by his tie, causing the rest of their classmates to erupt in cheers and applause so loud that professor snape’s “boys! in the hall, now!” went unheard. minutes later, when they had actually been led out of the classroom to wait for their punishment, wylan finally worked up the courage to meet jesper’s eyes, his face almost as red as his hair. jesper’s grin was radiant. “so. butterbeer and my cologne, huh?”

it took all of wylan’s nerve to not sink into the ground where he stood. “i didn’t know today’s lesson was on amortentia,” he muttered, feeling himself flush again.

it took all of jesper’s will not to kiss the younger again right there where he stood with the way the redhead was looking up at him from beneath his long lashes.

“well, what about you?” wylan demanded, rolling his eyes. “let me guess. cards, pumpkin juice, and galleons?”

“no, actually.” jesper replied, spinning his wand in his hand. “i smell grass. gunpowder. and...”

he took a step closer to wylan who stood still, holding his breath. “...and?” the third year asked quietly.

“exploding elixir.”

wylan’s mind shut down.

“the entire room was filled with the same smell from that day we singed snape’s hair,” jesper snorted. “of all things, we had to mess up the potion that smelled like burnt-”

it was wylan who pulled jesper down this time, reaching up on his tippy toes to meet jesper’s soft lips, the ones that had captivated him from the moment he had walked into the potions classroom and saw his new lab partner for the first time.

“fahey, van eck!” snape burst into the hallway. “does it seem possible to keep your hands off of each other?”

“sorry, prof.” jesper winked, eyes still trained on wylan’s mouth. “guess you can say we’ve got...chemistry.”

wylan couldn’t even bring himself to care about detention.

2. nina stifled a laugh, trying to keep a straight face as she watched matthias scan the inside of zonko’s joke shop. she had just gotten matthias to admit that he enjoyed a drink as sweet as butterbeer, hours earlier at the three broomsticks. “you look like you’re inside the shrieking shack, not a joke shop.” nina snickered at the way matthias perked up.

“whatever the shrieking shack is, i think that there’d be more dignity in such a place than...this.” matthias dropped a dungbomb he had picked up like it had personally offended his grandmother.

“why?” nina giggled. she shook the box in her hand. “not a fan of ton-tongue toffees?”

matthias made a face that looked like he was more than just not a fan. “if it’s anything like those jelly beans you fed me on the train, then no.”

that only made nina laugh harder. “i swear you picked the worst ones! you should’ve seen your face when you tried the rotten egg flavor.”

matthias cracked a smile, relaxing a little amongst the colorful store and his girlfriend’s laughter. he picked up another product, a pink bottle corked at the top. “what does this one do?”

nina lowered her voice, gesturing for matthias to come closer, as if letting him in on a secret. “that one’s a love potion. one drop of it in someone’s drink and they’re yours,” she whispered. “they’ll think about you all day.”

matthias jerked away, putting the bottle back on the shelf. “you can’t be serious. love can’t be made like that!” he sputtered.

“i don’t know, durmstrang,” nina teased. “what if i bought one and slipped some in your pumpkin juice tomorrow at breakfast?”

matthias only crossed his arms, continuing to grimace. “well, that wouldn’t work at all.”

“why not? zonko’s is pretty reliable when it comes to their products.” she said pointedly, looking at the extendable ears on sale.

“because i’m already in love with you.” matthias stated simply.

nina froze, turning to her boyfriend. during her time dating matthias, the hufflepuff had proven to be narrow minded and straightforward as a broom doing any and every thing. it was moments like these she was reminded that this included during his expressions of affection, and nina couldn’t love him more for it.

“i’m in love with you, too.” she declared, slipping her hand into her boyfriend’s. she had always liked...brooms. “now, come on. i want to see if we can get kaz to fall for a trick wand.”

3. all inej had wanted was a quiet place to study that wasn’t the library. she liked to practice with her wand for transfiguration, and magic wasn’t allowed in the library. she had been wandering the school for an empty classroom or quiet corner when the room of requirement had appeared at the end of a hallway, exactly moments before she was about to give up and return to the gryffindor common room. she was only half surprised when she opened the door and saw kaz, but like always, kaz hadn’t seemed surprised at all when she entered. he sat on top of a desk with his cane leaned against it, wand out, in the middle of a silent spell. inej let her eyes trail over his robe perched on a chair, his gloves off and set aside in a rare moment, and his uniform sleeves pulled up to his elbows.

“first time here?” kaz asked, not looking up from the book in his lap. his rough voice echoed slightly in the large room as inej scanned her surroundings. the room was empty besides a couple of desks and chairs in one corner, a cluttered pile of objects in another, and a big wardrobe that looked ages old. a fireplace on the wall kept the room warm, and a small chandelier hung above inej’s head.

“guess i didn’t require much until now.” inej shrugged, pulling a desk and chair of her own towards the center of the room. “you?”

kaz closed his book, finally looking up at inej. “i come and go when i want.”

inej wanted to know more about what had revealed the room to kaz in the first place, but she redirected the question away from kaz himself, knowing it was unlikely he would answer. “get anything out of it?” with kaz, it was all about gain.

kaz drummed his fingers on his desk. inej tried not to stare. “some crying first years with who miss their mums. i think i’ve witnessed a bit of every couple in the school’s snogging.” he pulled out a handful of extendable ears from his robe pocket. “snape’s planning something. don’t know the details yet, but something big.”

inej nodded. part of her expected kaz to leave, speak with his silence as he tended to do, but he continued to sit and look at inej, book in lap. inej knew him well enough to recognize that while it wasn’t exactly an invitation, kaz wasn’t saying no to a conversation. she could’ve started with a less risky question about snape’s plans, or asked for the names of the couples in their year, just to know, but inej was curious about other things.

“and how did you find this place, kaz?”

“the de kappel painting.” he said casually. “i needed a place to hide it.”

inej froze, taken aback by kaz’s answer. or more accurately, his willingness to answer. “so it’s true?” she questioned, hoping her voice didn’t give away her surprise. “the gringotts vault rumor.” she had half believed them to begin with, knowing kaz’s abilities but never his motives. still, kaz had never confirmed it with anyone as far as she had known.

“true enough.” kaz reopened his book, attention back on the page. inej inwardly sighed. the satisfaction of knowing kaz trusted her enough to confirm the gringotts rumor didn’t last long. figures kaz wouldn’t want to talk much about himself.

“but that’s a story for next time.” kaz flipped a page, the slightest start of a smirk tugging at the corner of his mouth.

next time, inej turned over in her head. she tried not to smile as she opened her own book. she could work with next time.

author’s note (pls read!) this is my first time on tumblr so idk how to use it too well but i’m overwhelmed by all the nice responses so thank you all so, so much. i see everything!! idk if there’s like poll mechanisms and stuff on tumblr (argh help) but i wanted to gauge what everyone would like next—im deciding between six of crows x pjo or shadow and bone x harry potter, so comment below what you’d like to see first (: i’d also love to hear abt any personal requests so my dms (is that what they’re called here?) are open for suggestions. no promises, but lmk if there’s something you want to read. feel free to get as niche as you want, respectfully! ok ik this is super long god bless your soul if u actually read the entire thing but finally, i just wanted to introduce myself—i’m lynn, this is my library and i dabble in most fandoms! my goal is to get at least one piece of writing out every month, so if you’d like to read what i write, follow along! OK im finally done, i swear. thank you again for the tremendous support. unbelievable. happy reading!

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misslolasynastry · 3 years ago

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Celebrity Synastry Analysis

Married at First Sight - Season 13

Ryan and Brett

Couples' Synopsis 🗯: Brett (yes her name is Brett) is a more liberal pop-chic, glamour, outgoing type of woman. Ryan is conservative, country music, outdoorsy, camo hunter, introverted guy. So far up to episode 11, they arent really into each other but they get along okay. You can tell that there isnt much of a spark, yet they still participate in activites. First day of the wedding, they were like oil and water as Brett felt uncomfortable with Ryan's lifestyle and views as she grew up in a more socially relaxed upbringing. Ryan is more quiet and soft spoken so although he peeps things he doesn't say much. Brett leads most of their activities together and although she is aware of their differences she's modest and optimistic about it. They dont argue theyve just sorta accepted how different they are and casually press on. They look more like coworkers that dont talk much. Ryan has gone on to say that he doesnt feel a connection with Brett and so he doesnt put in much effort toward the relationship. I created a poll amongst fans asking if they think Ryan's lack of connection is valid OR should he try more to make it work as Brett does? The results were 55% with 75 participants leaning towards them just not being a good fit. I agree in that regard.

Below is an example I give for basic synastry clients. One thing astrology doesnt account for is having a connection, as 2 people can be completely incompatible yet still crave each other in a love/lust way. Ive also seen couples that had highly compatible charts but they werent interested in each other. However, despite lacking a natural bond, theyre more likely to come to appreciate one another over time due to how naturally smooth things are. Synastry is more for analyzing the differences in 2 persons' behaviors and personality, as well as how they interact with each other. Youre able to see where you disconnect and where you have similarities. I do them for couples, family members, and best friends.

🌞 Sun - Leo * Scorpio

Represents what each person takes pride in and is the core of their personality. They are incompatible here because they view life and take pride in very different things. Their Suns also create a square aspect which intensifies how polar they are. Leo Suns are more extroverted and take pride in the joys of life, creativity, romance, independence, and things that encourage spontaneity and challenge. Scorpio on the other hand is a deeply emotional intimate sign, as an empath are often more introverted in relationships and prefer a slow and steady intensity. Scorpio is also more a codepenent sign as they feel at their best an most powerful when theyre in charge and can command change in their surroundings. This doesnt work very well with an independent Leo Sun as both of them are fixed (stubborn) signs, one emotional/sensual and the other more playful/fiery. You could see this on their wedding day as Brett felt out of place while Ryan couldnt figure out why Brett couldnt just let go and enjoy the moment.

🌛 Moon - Virgo * Cancer

Represents how each handles emotions, feelings, the way they feel nurtured and nurture others. They have compatible moon signs as their zodiacs are both introverted, sensual, slow and steady, as well as sensitive. Virgo moons are the organizing perfectionists so they tend to pick apart everything they sense and how theyre feeling. As an earth sign theyre very grounded but at the same time are constantly trying to perfect their relationships with others. If youre paying attention to the little details, they will love you for it. Cancer moons are the motherly type and at times codependent because if they care for someone they will try to protect and "mother" them. As an empath they are very sensitive to the feelings of others and do things to try to keep the peace. Because both are introverted, slow paced, and sensitive emotionally this pairing works well. You can see as Brett and Ryan are talking that they feel comfortable with each other especially when sharing their feelings.

🗣 Mercury - Cancer * Libra

Represents the way you communicate, process information, and the key to what goes on in a person's head. They are incompatible here because they process information and communicate very differently. There is also a square aspect which indicates being more prone to misunderstandings as well as having alternate viewpoints on many topics. Those who watch the show can see that they have very different social lives and beliefs. Cancer is more sensitive, family based, an emotional speaker, and empath. Cancers are in a way more dreamy and poetic conversators. They are sensitive to the things others say and fear hurting other's feelings as well as hearing harsh words. Libra is more intellectual, analytical, extroverted, and social. Librans are peacekeepers and enjoy light hearted fun conversation, they arent afraid of blunt direct speaking but dont take well to conflict. However in ways both individuals are people pleasers as these zodiacs feed off the other person, in order to respond in a way they think is acceptable. Ryan prefers a communication style thats more emotional poetic and intimate, while Brett wants someone to joke with and is engaging to have a good time. They dont really talk much and as you can see, Brett engages him more than the other way around. Ryan doesnt feel emotionally connected so often opts out of conversation unless its deep.

💝 Venus - Libra * Sagittarius

Represents your creativity, romance style, inspiration, and foreplay. They are compatible in this area as both zodiacs enjoy this more light and fun essence when doing different activities together. Libra Venus tends to love social activities and things that bring a bit of challenge in to the mix, having a peaceful loving relationship is important to them. Sagittarius is the spontaneous optimistic adventurer, enjoying someone they can grow with and exchange ideas. And because both are able to let go and have fun, theyre able to spend time with each other despite differences. You can see this in the show as both Brett and Ryan still participate in activities together while other couples struggle more.

😡 Mars - Capricorn * Libra

Represents the way you respond to conflict, what motivates you, and the style of sex you prefer. They are incompatible in this planet as they resolve conflict in very different ways. Capricorn the fatherly hardworking zodiac can be more withdrawn and stern, seeking to take some time to calm down before trying to resolve things. They approach conflict by way of hardwork, discipline, structure, conservatism and law. Capricorn Mars play by their rules on whats right and wrong and can have a traditional stance on things. They can get emotional and defensive of what they deem to be law. Libras dont mind approaching conflict head on, because when resolving they tend to remove emotions and analyze the situation. Theyre considered the best judges of the zodiac due to their ability to find balance and bring harmony. However, Libra Mars can be people pleasers and kinda passive about things. If they feel the other is uncompromising they will withdraw. Although Ive never seen them argue, I can predict that Ryan is more on the sensitive side and very matter of fact, while Brett may attempt to get her point across then cave-in once Ryan is noticeably uncomfortable. Although they may be able to trigger each other in the mood by way of Venus, Capricorn mars prefers more slow and steady lovemaking, while Librans like things more fast paced and fun in the bedroom. Im willing to bet that Ryan enjoyed Tantric yoga more than Brett did.

When it comes to aspects traditionally I would break down them all, but when first looking at someone's chart in a basic synastry standpoint, I analyze longevity factors first. Such as aspects to Saturn, Pluto, North Node, and at times Juno. But to keep this shorter, I'll stick to the 3 major aspects. Conjunctions, Trines, Squares

😇 Saturn Trine North Node - support each others growth through maturity and discipline

👥Saturn Conjunct Uranus -traditionalist vs nonconformist, the unexpected and practical nature of each other is beneficial, but feelings of restriction or unpredictability can crumble the relationship

💣Saturn Square Moon - saturn sees moon as overly sensitive while moon feels restricted. It grows worse over time as each feel misunderstood, its up to Saturn to reconcile this issue by being more attentive.

😇Pluto Trine Sun - encourges confidence, positivity, and has a transforming effect on each partner, mostly Sun

😇Pluto Trine Jupiter - optimism remains through difficulty which allow both to persevere through challlenges

😇Pluto Trine North Node - pluto has the ability to transform and empower North Node on their path to success

💣Pluto Square Lilith - good intentions can get lost in the mix as pluto person attempts to transform liliths obvious struggles

😇North Node Trine Mercury - Mercury stimulates North Node's intellect regarding their purpose and karma in unexpected ways.

👥North Node Conjunct Jupiter - optimism and a sense of purpose motivates each other. This can help them succeed in things they do together.

💣North Node Square Neptune - the future of the relationship can be very cloudy, they may seek to look at each other for inward healing and North Node will lose patience for it all

💣North Node Square Venus - indicates differences in where each person wants the relationship to go, Venus prefers lighthearted fun and romance while North Node takes their path more serious.

📒 Final Thoughts: Based on their compatibility and aspects, there isnt much spark or longevity between them. And they may never quite align for that reason. They could attempt to work through these problems but for a lack of connection on Ryan's end, hes less likely to try to make it work. Brett is at least open to it but having different lifestyles and alternative desires for a relationship will make it hard to move forward. This is why having a mutual connection is so important in a relationship because both partners at least have that glue to try and make differences work. The only thing theyve got going for each other is the ability to understand each other's emotions and have a good time. But when examining aspects, Ryan still views Brett as overly sensitive and not disciplined in her reactions. Even if they did press on with their relationship, they may still find it dull, just based on the lack of fun aspects in their synastry chart.

🧜🏽‍♀️ For inquiries regarding synastry charts please visit my profile introductory post, email misslolasynastry@gmail, or shoot me a message. If you'd like me to analyze a celebrity couple im open to doing so as long as you have both birthdays on hand. I can also analyze family members as well.

#mafs #married at first sight season 13 #married at first sight #astrology #synastry #scorpio #leo #spirituality #scorpio and leo #arranged marriage #brett and ryan #western astrology #aspects #matchmaking #chart reading

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iam-kenough · 4 years ago

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Will you ever notice me? Arthur Morgan x Original Female Character

Summary: During they wandering in deep snowstorm, man from van der Linde gang found odd looking girl and Dutch decides to take her to camp to see if she can be any use, leading life of outlaw with them. Quickly, new girl develops feelings towards Arthur, but he sees her just as a kid...and she won't take that! It's an original character story that starts in the place where Arthur, Dutch and Micah were supposed to first meet with Sadie. Instead she's already with them.

Authors notes: It’s second chapter and you can find the rest of chapter on my blog if you want to read more of my fanfiction.

Word count: 2978 Chapter 2

It was next day's evening when they landed on new camp's place. Everyone started arranging their tents and some of them decided to go to the lake and bath after long trip.

- The water is so damn cold! But it was nice to take a bath after all those hours- Iris was talking to Mary-Beth and her teeth were chattering. She decided to wear woolen dress Mary gave to her, not being even slightly suspicious why Iris would wear a dress so badly. It was nice, wine red and warm one. She decided to tweeze her brows a little bit and she brushed her long, black hair putting them in loose bun. Even though she will undress and wear only chemise in her bed in less than 3 hours.

Iris looked around and sighed. All good places for a tent were taken and she couldn't sleep with girls in their tent 'cause it was too small. She had to prepare her own but there was only one way left to do that.

- Knock, knock - she said awkwardly, knocking on one of polls holding Arthur's tent. He was on his coot, drawing something in his journal. It catched her attention. Didn't know he's romantic soul who would sketch while sulking like this.

- How can I help ya? - he closed the book and looked at her shyly. He analysed her posture in new clothes but very quickly so it wouldn't scare her or make her uncomfortable. Girls usually didn't like his sight on them.

- Will it bother you if I will place my tent right next to yours? All good spots were taken when I took a bath - her cheeks flushed a little bit. She even tried to flirt with him and bat her eyes, while she squeezed fabric of her dress.

- It's rather if I won't bother you, kid.

If I could I would devour you right here, Mr Morgan and you would be the only person not bothering me. I would undress you from your bright blue shirt which matches your eyes so good and I would let you pop my cherry...

- You'right out there, kid? Asked ya if I won't bother you.

- N-no, never. Thank you, Mr Morgan - she jumped into the air and disappeared to set her tent. It was mirroring his and when she was looking above her trunk she could see him, deeply in his thoughts. Honestly, if they would rearrange it a little bit more they would have big, shared tent with two beds next to eachother. But she they wasn't close enough for Iris to ask for it even if she wouldn't mind.

Later that night they had supper prepared by her and Mr Pearson. Almost everyone was eating together but she noticed Arthur hidden in his spot. She went to her tent and sat on the coot mirroring his position.

- I hope it tastes good? - Iris asked after few minutes. He raised her eyes surprised at her.

- You eatin' with my poor companion? I see everyone gathering around the fire.

- They're all nice and stuff but I like to eat in peace. You're not bad to be with, Mr Morgan.

It sounded a little bit frivolous and she actually liked it, surprised with her own temper.

He blushed. Or rather tips of his ears did.

- It's just surprising 'cause yall girls are always eating together. And yes, this stew is amazing - he liked his fingers and brushed his dirty mouth with his sleeve.

Normally she would jerk away on this kind of behaviour but she giggled at sight of big man eating messy like that.

- Girls are okay, especially Tilly and Mary, but Karen has...a little bit to intense character. Oh, and Dutch's girlfriend. That lady hates me.

- She hates everybody, dont'cha worry.

- Today she hit Dutch with a book, saying he's throwing me looks - Iris was giggling and she brushed loose hair behind her ear.

- Looks, ya say? Oh don't worry, you just new, that's why he does that, kid.

- She's rather young too, you know. It's just the make-up she uses, makes her look older.

- Ya say? Nah, you still look like kid to me. With all those freckles and you being thin. Not so sure you should go with us to rob that train, I will have to watch you all the time - his voice was low and he chuckled.

Ouch, that was bad! So he doesn't like freckles...It's nothing I can do about it. But maybe if I'm gonna eat more I'll stop being thin, get some bust maybe and then-

- You sure you want to sit here with me? You seemed bored with my old feller talkin'.

- I-I am not bored at all. Can you show me what are you drawing?

He brushed his chin, sign of him being shy and he passed her the journal. On two pages he drew their whole new camp.

- I must say you can draw, Mr Morgan. You've got talent - she passed the journal back and their hands brushed against each other. She blushed again.

- Talent that's useless for sure - his voice was low and nice and he almost sounded like purring cat. Iris felt knot tying up in her stomach.

- It's not, it's not! - she shaked her head - I find it really pretty. You could draw something for me one day - it was supposed to be flirt and she bit her lower lip but he didn't notice that. He just cheered up.

- What you like, then? I can draw it for you - he patted her arm in friendly manner. They were so close right now, their faces next to each other. She could smell him.

What do I like? Your lips, your intriguing eyes, the fact that your hair was so messy and the fact you smell like whiskey, cigarettes and sweat.

- Flowers - she said plainly, looking at her feet - Any flowers are good. Or animals. I saw you sketching deer one day.

- I've been hit on my head a lot so if I would forget remind me of it, kid - she looked at him once again and licked her lower lip, becoming red on her cheeks. He started looking at her quizzically.

- I think you catched a cold, kid, you seem burning up. Better go to sleep, tomorrow's a day too.

Knot in her stomach popped and she lowered her head. Kid, you say. Im gonna show you, one day I will gain weight, have some reall boobs and nice mature dresses and you will look at me the right way. She got up a little bit too quick, tears forming in corner of her eyes but he was facing her back almost immediately and he didn't see.

- Y-you right, I don't feel my best - she answered with shaking voice and she rubbed her eyes - I'm...gonna get some rest. Goodnight, Mr Morgan.

- Uh-, yea, good night - he read her bad, he was sure she's sick but she seemed rather irritated by the fact he noticed? I will apologize tomorrow.

She put on the curtain between the halves of tent which was giving them privacy now and she sighed. At first she looked in small mirror she owned and analised her own face. You ugly, Iris.

Girl looked at herself quizzically. Big, green eyes with long lashes and nice, pink lips but then freckles happened, covering her nose and cheeks. Her hair were jet black but wavy instead of sleek locks of other girls around. Iris started undressing herself and she looked at her figure with disgust. She had round hips and long legs, but that's it. She looked thin and had small breast and that was not what men would look at. It's not what he would look at.

When she put on her night gown and layed down she looking at tents ceiling and thinking. Oil lamp in Arthur's half stopped giving light, he was going to sleep. She heard him getting comfortable on his bed and after few minutes he was breathing heavily.

She drifted away in her sleep, thinking how it would be to cuddle his big frame.

Another few weeks passed and in this time Iris tried her best to prove she's mature and strong but also femine at the same time. It was difficult to kill a man at 4 and then acting like a subtle lady few hours later. It was nice, warm evening and girls decided to go swimming after long day of work. Iris was so happy and relaxed as she and Mary - Beth was looking at red sky and Tilly with Karen was fooling around in water.

- Can I tell you a secret? You will like it - Iris whispered. Mary seemed excited immediately.

- Tell me, tell me! - she giggled

- I fell in love - Iris whispered to her ear and her friend become red from blushing.

-No way! Who, who is he? Or maybe she? - Blond girl tickled brunette a little bit.

- It's him, yes. But I wouldn't mind you...- they purred at each other and then burst into laugh.

- Who? I bet it's John, all girls are sweet on him and Abigail hates us for that.

-Nope!

- Bill!

-No!

- New O'Driscolls boy!

- Ew!

- Then who, Dutch?

- You must be crazy! I mean...he's not bad if you think about him but this red-head witch he's with? I have no chances - Iris was laughing so badly.

- You have to tell me! But then it has to be someone from outside the camp...

-No! He's there, Mary-Beth, please don't make me say his name out loud.

And then Mary became pale. Then red again. Then she got up.

-No! From all of them you choosed Arthur Morgan?!

- Shhh! We are too close to the camp!

- But why?! He's sweet but we have never seen him with woman, you know. I think he's a little bit weird about it. Dutch once laughed at him taking a bath with a dog when camp had one.

- W-Well...he seems a little awkward and he's like wild animal more than a man but he's charming and he always complemented food I make and he always talks to me in the evening.

- At least he talks to you, he usually doesn't. To no one.

- That's my problem, he talks to me but he seemes to see me as a kid. I tried everything! Few days ago I was sitting with him and we was both reading a book and I looked at him so nicely, I tried my best to look at him with hazy, flirting eyes. And he asked me if I needed glasses because I blink a lot.

- Well...I don't know how to help you - Mary said as they were walking towards camp - usually it's easy, a little bit of exposed skin and being close. You should try it.

- I should...I should go to his tent dressing my nightgown for example?

- Oh, that's an idea! I saw it and it's really cute and...hot.

-Mary- Beth, are you hitting on me? - she joked as they was passing Hosea's tent. Girls heard him talking with Arthur and they would ignore but they heard Iris's name. They started listening immediately, hiding behind the tent to eaves dropping.

- And this new girl, Iris's her name - Hosea said.

- What's with her?

- Just wanted to know what you think about her - he seemed to tease Arthur a little bit.

- It's good kid, she seems to like my company. And honestly, I like hers, she doesn't talk that much comparing to any of you fools - he cleared his throat.

- I thought that you are much closer. Basically sharing a tent and talking every evening...

- What d'ya say, Hosea?

- How long have been since you had a woman, Arthur?

- Not long enough to think about it again- his voice became angry in the nick of time - it's kid we talking about, don't get the wrong idea.

Iris inhaled sharply and bit her lower lip, while her eyes became glossy. But she listened, she couldn't stop.

- Isn't it obvious, Arthur? She looks at you very odd way and she enjoys your company a lot, lot more than others.

- I didn't notice. By the way, she's not stupid. I'm much older and I have past, just no way I would be with her. She doesn't love me to start with. One day she will leave the camp to have a normal life.

Sound of tears dropping on Iris's dress was the only sound she was making. She got up quickly and in a blink of an eye disappeared, running into the woods.

- Iris?! - Mary- Beth tried to follow her but she tripped over one of tent's strings. She sweared ugly.

This is bad, so bad - was all Iris was thinking. Her breathing heavy, her eyes red. She stopped in the middle of nowhere, just when she was sure all around her was dark forest. She didn't even know why she was so agry. Maybe because he said out loud things I thought about myself? Maybe because she was sure that his ears getting red were sign of him considering her as someone hot?

But look at yourself, c'mon. When father lived, he always told you you gonna become a maid, because no man would touch something so fragile, that looks constantly sick. He was right, oh so badly right. And now Iris had to apologise to Mary-Beth for leaving her like that.It was dark night when she got back to the camp, everyone sleeping in their tents. Only one oil lamp was glowing. She decided to act like nothing happen, just not to lose his friendship, ever. So she took a deep breath and peaked her head inside his part of tent.

- Just wanted to say good night, Mr Morgan - was all she said, smiling faintly.

- Kid! You weren't there for supper. Did something happened?

- N-no...just small fight with girls - she lied without hesitation. Then smiled a little bit more so he won't be suspicious. He always was but he was taking her lies as an answer, 'cause she lied when it would expose her feelings.

- Small fight made you disappear without word? Y'got hot head then - he joked. His blue eyes were piercing her.

- Maybe a little - he didn't see nothing good about her anyway, she could become hothead in his eyes even it was inappropriate for woman.

- Wanna talk about it?

- With you? I-I mean we can but it's nothing. Really.

- You seem sad lately, kid. Is someone or something bothering you?

- Ah...no, just stupid, girly things.

- Girly things - he seemed a little bit scared now.

- Interests of heart, to call it. Nothing too exciting, especially for you.

He became silent. So she wasn't considering him as a close friend if she didn't want to tell. He thought different for a second but...she was right, he was no friend.

- Were you ever in love, Mr Morgan? - he heard her voice from behind one of trunks. She probably lied on her bed.

- F'course I was. But if you askin' me 'bout those things ya need to share with me first, ya know? What are those Interests of heart, huh?

She took deep breath. After few seconds she knew how to tell it without being obvious.

- I just fell in love with someone who will never accept me. He's good friend and that's only reason I didn't tell him yet. But I know....I heard what's he talking about me, no need to share my feelings with him, because he considers me strongly as a friend, nothing more. It would make our relationship awkward.

He furrowed his brows. So she was seeing someone. He wondered who.

- That sounds a lil' bit bad, kiddo. Maybe I don't look like but I know how to have a broken heart - he said as his eyes become glossy. She couldn't see them anyway, so he didn't hold back thinking about Mary right now - But if it's your friend he shouldn't judge ya, ya know. Even if he doesn't share feelings with you. You sure, he does not?

- One hundred percent sure - she said that very slowly because those words left bitter on her tongue - and I'm not afraid of being judged, I just know it would destroy our friendship.

- He's no friend then - Arthur replied shortly. He felt like dumbass but if she liked talking to him about all of this he felt appreciated.

Iris took deep breath. You are a friend. The closest one I have now after those weeks that passed. And I will cherish you forever, even if your lack of knowledge will hurt me sometimes.

- He is. About this I'm sure. I really love this person. Thank you, Mr Morgan for listening to me - it sounded like she thanked him for listening but she was actually thanking him for everything.

It seemed like yesterday when they rescued her but it wasn't. Many days passed and she already shared with him many thoughts but also many jobs, even dangerous one. They robbed trains together after all. They was murdering together. And every evening they were lying in their beds and talking. They usually looked at their tent's ceiling but she didn't mind. He seemed so sad and distanced, always worried. She also noticed his extremely low self-esteem, he always was talking that he's not good man and that he's stupid on account being hit on the head to often.

She had fallen asleep to those thoughts.

#arthur morgan x reader #arthur morgan x female reader #arthur morgan x oc #arthur morgan #rdr2 arthur #rdr2 fanfic #rdr2 oc #rdr2 tag #slow romance #angst #smuttish #fluff

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noxtms · 5 years ago

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1. WHISPERS OVER A GLASS OF FIREWHISKY, FERVANT CONVERSATION WITH A GROWING GROUP ON COBBLESTONES. it’s the only topic of conversation even among ordinary people who are living their ORDINARY lives. even those that weren’t in attendance of the memorial have seen the photo, front page of the daily prophet every day until the sybill trelawney story breaks and takes over. it doesn’t matter who you are, or how WILLING you’ve been, to engage. chances are, whether it comes from your visiting sister or the shopkeep on diagon alley you only see once weekly, you’ve been asked : what do you think is happening?

2. A DULL ACHE BENEATH YOUR SLEEVE. it’ll be an isolated incident, that first time, and it’ll be easy for some of you to ignore. you’ll chalk it up to nerves or simply the time, and you might scratch at your arm absentmindedly, but it won’t be all too concerning. if any FEARFUL thought pushes it’s way through, you’ll try your best to push that aside, too, and carry on your daily affairs as normal. it’ll be almost a week later, to the day, when you’ll awake at witching hour - your arm PAINFULLY BURNING like a brand has been put to it. you’ll lift it in absract horror, not even bothering with the lamp, and gaze upon the skull & snake that had almost faded in the six odd years since it had last come to life as it writhes in place, once again, as it will forevermore when she calls for you.

3. IT MIGHT BEGIN WITH A SMELL OF SMOKE. you’ll crinkle your nose and you’ll search all around, first glancing to your kitchen, as if there lies the obvious source. when it yields no answers you’ll look around and notice the rising grey smoke from a drawer you never really look into, and this’ll strike you as STRANGE, as it should, because there really is no reason for it. you’ll stride forward and pull it open with intent, wand ready to put out whatever fire has begun. and there, in the middle of a neatly charred hole, will lie a galleon. nothing special, really, except that it’s still red at the edges from how it burned red hot like a fire poker, and when you lift it with cautious fingers you’ll find a new message arranged around the edge : 20.05.2020, 21.00, 44° 42' 7.9596".

4. THE PULSING BLUE LIGHT WILL APPEAR LIKE AN EXPLOSION. you might even jump. it will explode in front of you regardless of where you stand, be it home, or the office, or somewhere in between. it will appear, and before your very eyes what starts as nothing but a shining beacon will morph into the figure of a lynx, of a goat, of a falcon, of a cat, and the messengers will bring you the news that you were dreading. the news you knew would come someday as surely as daybreak, but that you’d crossed your fingers and hoped would not. tomorrow, six pm, the burrow.

OUT OF CHARACTER :

civilians. the death eaters. dumbledore’s army. the order of the phoenix. they’re WITHOUT a doubt the four main spokes of the wheel that’s turning, following recent in game events : and now, it really begins. this is not a traditional plot drop in the sense that it isn’t kicking off any particular in game event, and acts more as an addition to the previous one - but it’s still IMPORTANT !

at your leisure, please send the MAIN an ask or im with your characters and their affiliation. as i receive names, i’ll be adding you to the appropriate channel to be set up on the main discord - if your characters alignment changes as we go, then a quick message to the main will have you moved to the then appropriate one !

the affiliations you may choose from ( complete with further explanation ), so far, are as follows:

civilians. if your character does not exactly align with a group, then this would be the section to list. they are JUST as important as all other groupings and will have just as much to do in terms of plot, as we go, but if you choose this grouping at first you are not STUCK to it, in future. if your character becomes swayed by a side, that’s not only a welcomed plot point, but absolutely okay by me and just means you’ll need to be moved to a different channel !

death eaters. now the foot soldiers of BELLATRIX LESTRANGE. this group may consist of those who have received the dark mark, previously ( and thus chose to apparate to bellatrix when she called for them ) or more recent recruits.

baby death eaters / conflicted souls / etc. if your character was previously aligned bad but isn’t vibing with miss bellatrix, then this is absolutely the grouping you should choose, since it’ll put you in with likeminded people for plotting. this group has the most openness in terms of where it goes - i’m happy for you all to work things out plotting wise, yourselves, and if it breaks up into smaller factions, that’s fine !

dumbledore’s army. not just those who were canonically a part of it - if you have a character within age range who you have headcanoned was a member, this is the group for you. many might not have kept the coin enchanted to show meetings, but those that did received a message from HERMIONE GRANGER to meet for the first time in years on the 20th of may, 2020 at 9 pm, coordinates leading them to number 12, grimmauld place.

the order of the phoenix. led by kingsley shacklebolt, minerva mcgonagall, aberforth dumbledore and a whole host of other individuals. your character might feel they have aged out of a previous ( looking at the DA, with this one ) faction, or they might always have been a member, or might only now be joining - whatever the story, if they align most strongly with the order, then this is the place you should put down !

the side channels are just a way to make group plotting more EASY, and are a place where characters thoughts and feelings and opinions should be shared. it might be, sometimes, that a question will be posed to you as a group for character developing purposes ( such as opinions on certain events happening around the rp ), or it might be that an upcoming event will involve them and that’ll be the first place you guys hear of it ! a poll will be put into the discord to decide whether there should also be IN CHARACTER versions of those channels for group meetings, but for now, it’s all out of character and for the purpose of discussions !

as always, if you have ANY questions or comments or concerns, please let me know !

#nox.plotdrop002 #nox.important #i said im gonna give y'all prose-y plot drops or im gonna give y'all nothing and i think that is so sexy of me

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dylanobrienisbatman · 5 years ago

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Chopped: The 100 Fanfic Challenge

That’s right, we’re back!!! A fan fiction challenge just for writers for The 100 fandom!! If you’re new to our fun little fanfic challenge, or just need a refresher, here’s how it works!

The Challenge!

The Chopped Challenge will have four (4) rounds, three qualifying rounds and a championship round. The structure of each round will be the same.

The first three rounds will be open to anyone who would like to participate. Each of the first three rounds will have a theme that your fic must comply with, which will be announced in this post. At the start of each round, we will announce a mystery basket of four (4) random tropes pulled from this list, which must be used in your fic, and you will have a one (1) week writing period to complete your fic.

Once you finish your fic, upload to it our anonymous AO3 challenge for that round (there will be a different anonymous challenge for all four rounds). Once the week writing period is up, the challenge will be closed. We will then take a 24 hour period to compile all of the fics to create the voting poll, after which the two (2) day voting period will begin.

The voting will contain polls for the use of each individual trope, the use of the rounds theme, and a bonus poll for each round which we will determine. There will be one round that has a bonus poll for ‘best rare pair’, which we will announce at the beginning of the round. Voting will require a URL or email, and only one vote per person will be counted. Each round will also have a poll for the best cumulative use of all four tropes and the theme. The first, second, and third place winners of each poll will be announced at the end of the voting period, and the first, second, and third place winners from the cumulative polls from each of the first three rounds will have the chance to write and have their fic submitted for voting in...

The 100 Chopped Challenge Championship Round!

The final round will have the same structure as the first three rounds, but will not have a theme, and one of the tropes will be a free choice trope where the writers will use the trope of their choice in their fic. (We will open a non-anonymous challenge for this round as well, if anyone would like to write for it that did not make it in the first three rounds, and fics submitted here will not be submitted to voting.) There will be another 48 hour voting period following the championship round, and the ‘Chopped Champions’ will be announced!

Timeline

Round 1: Canon Divergence (S1-S6)

Prompt released: 12:00am October 1

Submissions close at 11:59pm October 7

Voting begins 12:00am October 9

Voting ends 11:59pm October 10

Round 2: Canon Spec

Prompt released: 12:00am October 12

Submissions close at 11:59pm October 18

Voting begins 12:00am October 20

Voting ends 11:59pm October 21

[Speculate away! Got s7 spec boiling over in your mind? Still hung up on not knowing what happened to spacekru in that 6 year time jump (aren’t we all)? Maybe you’re even hanging out in that three month gap between s2 and s3, or have some precanon ideas floating around that you want to put out there? We want it all!]

Round 3: Modernised Canon

Prompt released: 12:00am October 23

Submissions close at 11:59pm October 29

Voting begins 12:00am October 31

Voting ends 11:59pm November 1

[For this theme, please choose a scene from canon (s1-s6) and recreate the scene in a modern setting. Feel free to swap around characters or change the mood or feeling of a scene, but please include in your description what scene you are recreating, and try to make it clear to a reader what scene it is you’re playing around with.]

Final Round

Prompt released: 12:00am November 3

Submissions close at 11:59pm November 9

Voting begins 12:00am November 11

Voting ends 11:59pm November 12

Rules

This competition was created to get creative and different fics out into the world, and to create a fun, positive fandom experience for everyone! In order to ensure that we achieve that goal of a positive experience, here are a few rules and guidelines that must be followed!

The requirements for the fics entered into the competition will be:

Must be The 100

Must fit the theme of the round (for rounds 1-3)

Must use ALL of the tropes selected for each round. If you don’t use the tropes, it will result in disqualification!

All fics must be 10,000 words or less!

All ratings are welcome, G through E, but please be aware that some smut fics may not be everyone’s thing! Write what you like, but it the voting is public so just keep that in mind!

You will be disqualified if you include:

Rape!

Underage! (This means no high school AU with sex, no teacher/student if the student is underage, zero adult/under 18 relationships!)

Incest! (incest includes adopted siblings, parent/child, step siblings, biological siblings, or any familial relationship, blood related or not!).

Negativity towards any character or ship! (This includes any sort of abuse perpetrated by a character intending to paint them in a negative light, negative statements about a character intended purely to express your dislike of a character, or things of that nature.)

This is meant to be a fun and positive experience for everyone. Fluff should be fluffy. Angst should be ‘angsty’ but not traumatic. Please try and write positive and good fics. We reserve the right to disqualify anyone if we are reading and we think it violates the negativity requirement!

Remember that if you have any questions at all, including whether something would fit our trope requirements, would violate one of the rules, or anything at all, please don’t hesitate to contact me (dylanobrienisbatman) or @thelittlefanpire we are here to help!

This challenge is open to any and all ships! As of now, we are not going to separate out the more popular ships from the smaller ships, we are going to trust that you guys will vote based on the story you read rather than the ship it comes from, but we understand why some of you are wary. If it becomes clear that the fics for ‘less popular’ ships are not being read as much as the others, we will figure out something. If you choose to vote, please try to read most of the fics, so that its fair to all the writers involved! We had no issues in our first challenge, and we hope we wont have any issues in this run either1

Please remember this is an anonymous competition!! Please dont post your fics on your own AO3 account or on tumblr until the voting for each round is over!

We are super excited to see what you guys write!!

This is the trope list we will be sending through a randomiser to get the tropes for each round. It was created via crowdsourcing last time we did this challenge, and im posting it here so people can get an idea of what tropes might be chosen.

#chopped: the 100 fanfic challenge #chopped: the 100 fanfic edition #the 100 #fanfic #fanfic challenge

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incorrect-marauders · 5 years ago

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THE OWLS ARE IN! IT’S TIME FOR THE SURVEY RESULTS!

So, as many of our followers are probably aware, we recently did a survey to get a feel of what people thought of our blog. We got a total of 57 results and we are grateful to each and every one of you for taking the time to let us know your thoughts. Now, we’re here to share the general consensus of what people thought and how we will accommodate these opinions.

We’ll definitely have some changes to the blog, so read on to see what those changes are!

Before we begin, we have a few things to briefly mention.

The results are pretty scattered. We didn’t want to restrict anyone, so most were free response or included “Other”. In hindsight, there were a few questions that could have easily been multiple choice without really restricting anyone. (Side eyes the first question.) Therefore, most of these will just summarize the results we got. Occasionally drop the graph for the multiple choice questions.

Because of the large amount of responses we got, not every answer will be listed here. We highlighted the things that were either most commonly mentioned or had us thinking the most.

If anyone would like to see the full results for some reason (par the names, to keep anonymity), feel free to email us at [email protected] and we’ll send it over!

And yes, we are making changes to accommodate these results! That’s what this survey was all about!

We’ll be opening applications for new mods within the next couple days as well.

We’ll have a tiny hiatus as all of this is going on.

Now, we begin...

How long have you been following incorrect-marauders?

The most popular answer seemed to be around 2 months or 10 months. A lot of people filling out this survey seemed to either be relatively new or here since the beginning. Kudos to you incorrect-marauders veterans, and welcome newer followers!

How did you find incorrect-marauders?

Somewhat as we expected. Keep reblogging us, lovely people!

What do you love MOST about incorrect-marauders?

"It's funny.” (x50)

No really, we got 50 variations of “It’s funny,” “It’s hilarious,” “The humour,” “The funny text posts.”

Thanks, we appreciate it!

“How weirdly in character the quotes always are.”

(Similar variations include, “How actually accurate your post are,” “That not every post is as funny, imho, but that they do keep true to the characters,” “How much they fit the characters.”)

“They offer new content to the Marauders 'franchise' as it were because some stuff within the fandom is constantly being reused.”

“How correct it actually is if Joanne made it canon.”

“McGonagall with the marauders and that the sources are listed.”

“Accurate representation, variety of ships and relationships, isnt toxic.”

“Very funny and can be great art/writing prompts.”

“The taste.”

“EVERYTHING.”

These are all very nice, thank you all. Glad we hit where we were aiming.

What do you love LEAST about incorrect-marauders?

The most common response was, “Nothing,” or a variation thereof, but that’s no fun for this question, so here are some of the legitimate criticisms we received!

“Quote sources, I think, occasionally aren't there.”

Our original quotes often don’t have sources. But if there’s one where a mod forgot to credit a source, please just message us and one of the admins will fix that!

“There isn't a particularly nice aesthetic to the blog, e.g. a matching layout and profile picture or quote.”

Yeah, we’re working to fix that. I like pretty blogs too.

“Could be updated a little more.”

(”Not much posting in my opinion,” “Long time between posts.”)

Strangely enough, we got this a few times but our later poll about how often to post were contradicting this. So, unfortunately, we will not be adjusting this.

“I mean I would say that Peter is on it, but can’t really get rid of him...”

(Got a few of these, like, ”Peter being seen as a good person.”)

Sorry!

“Some are a bit too small.”

“I don’t like the long quotes.”

Well, then.

“Seeing my #notp but that isnt rly a minus?? Its called diversity so im not gonna hate or anything.”

Thank you for appreciating the diversity. We get occasional hate over it, but we also get hate over not posting some of the other ships. I suppose that’s what happens when you have lots of different followers of different opinions.

“If I send you a text post you credit the source in # but i'd like you to include a link to my tumblr in the post itself so people would actually find my tumblr. I doent send you text posts anymore, cause it doesn't really profit me and it feels like you get credit for my work.”

We’re sorry you feel that way. We always put it in the tags, just in front of the source. We are more of a mod-based blog rather than a submission-based blog. Anyone is welcome to submit, but about 98% of our posts are created by our mods.

“Sometimes I feel like the wrong characters were chosen or not well thought out.”

We can assure you our mods put a lot of thought into what characters to use, but you are welcome to message us with your own suggestion! (But please note that we are a Marauders blog; we got a few comments about how we don’t post enough Hinny or Romione, but that’s not what our blog is about.)

What makes incorrect-marauders stand out?

Once again, we got a lot about how funny we are, so we’ll skip over those and highlight the more unique answers!

"They don't use things from other people without credit.”

“The love and attention put in to everything.”

“Don't think there are any other blogs about marauders in this style.”

(We got this a few times. ”Like the type of blog and incorrect-marauders was the first one Harry potter themed I found,” also, “Its really funny and pretty much the only blog that just does this kind of post and i LOVE it.” But alternatively... “There are a lot of textpost blogs like it, but it is one of the only ones that I have found that consistently keeps characters in character in the posts and appeals to my sense of humor.”)

“I feel the quotes are in character and from multiple sources which Is cool.“

“How open it is.”

“The continuous content.”

“The posts arent so often that my dash is spammed like other blogs of the same nature.”

“Not sure but I like you.”

Not much to comment on these except we’re happy to see people think this about us!

How satisfied are you with the blog and the posts, in all?

So, you’re telling me, we opened a public, anonymous survey and not a single hater filled it out? Am I impressed or disappointed?

Please explain your response to the previous question.

“I just love the whole blog.”

“It's not my favourite blog ever ever which is why it's not a 10 but i still love it.”

“You guys are just so awesome! But it'd also be cool to have a little, meet the creator(s).”

“Its good but I don't have or want notifications on.”

“It’s the #qualitycontent i signed up for.”

"Always room for improvement, and also there's no 9 3/4 option.”

Awesome! We definitely agree that we can always improve, which is what this survey is for!

How often should we post?

We got a lot of variety here. Some say once a day (which is how often we currently post) was ideal. Others put stuff like...

“I wouldnt mind my entire blog just being filled with your posts.”

While Once A Day is the most voted for, the rest of the options put together, which we’ll name Two or More Times a Day, do win overall. Since we have one new post followed by a reblog, we’ll compromise by posting two times a day, but with one new post a day (the second being a reblog).

In UTC, what times do you prefer us posting?

As expected, not many people cared. But two people felt very strongly and voted for 12am, 1am, and 6pm UTC. So, we’ll consider that.

What characters, relationships, universes, etc. would you like to see more represented in our posts?

We got a lot of responses here, primarily being more Wolfstar, Jily, and BFFs James and Sirius. We also got a lot saying we should post about Hinny, Romione, next gen, FBAWTFT, etc. in which I remind you that this is a Marauders blog.

We also got the hilarious response that said we should maybe post about the “merauders”. Well, we can certainly promise you that.

We also got a lot of people saying more McGonagall. That’s something we can definitely do.

Would you like to see more original quotes from us?

For the longest time, the option 50/50 was at exactly 50%. Kind of disappointed that is no longer, but the 25% option is at 25%, so that’s something. Anyway, we’ll aim for 50/50.

What else would you like to see us post?

This was one of the results that will make the biggest change to the blog. People seem to really love these ideas. So expect...

Marauder Mondays! Every Monday we’ll have Marauder Monday, where we’ll answer asks, reblog posts, and have a party! Probably when we’ll post the “extra” posts, like our GIFs, graphics, aesthetics, videos, etc.

How would you feel if we did sponsored posts?

Combined, it seems like ~75% of those who took the survey are good with sponsored posts.

These results honestly surprised us. We’ve gotten a lot of offers of sponsorships in the past but have always denied them because we didn’t know how our followers would feel. We probably won’t do this in the near future, but it’s an option.

What kind of projects would you like to see us host?

We got so many people suggesting merch. Shirts, stickers, pins, other merch... So we’ll keep that in mind! We’d love some Marauders shirts ourselves.

“Projects that other blogs can get involved with to help other accounts grow.”

Noted!

“An art challenge maybe? like, 30 day challenge where you have to draw them as characters from movies/tv shows? like, friends, clueless, avengers, dc characters etc.“

Definitely interesting. Art challenges would be a lot of fun. Hopefully there’s an interest for this!

Which of our other accounts do you follow/would like to follow?

We’ll look into bringing on people to regularly post on other sites.

What device do you use to browse our blog most often (whether through Tumblr or our site)?

Why are we bothering with a redesign again? Oh, right. Personal vain.

How often do you visit the blogsite?

Those numbers are higher than expected...

What kind of things would you like to find on our blogsite?

“Character aesthetics.”

“Fanfiction links.”

“Marauders fan art would be cool.“

We’ll be working on this! Thank you for the suggestions!

More meet the creator(s) (if not comfortable with should, maybe just telling a funny story)

We got a lot of people saying they’d like to know more about us. We are anonymous, but this particular comment had us thinking. We’ll be implementing something in the near future. We will still remain anonymous, but we will have “blog identifies”, I suppose you could say. More info to come!

Other than show, character, and ship lists, what would you like to see in our navigation?

We didn’t get many new suggestions for this, except for fanart, aesthetics, etc. which we will add as more people join the blog!

Do you have any additional suggestions for us?

"Maybe find a blog that could do fan art, but only if you’re comfortable with it. Also, you’re blog is already so amazing, and any redesign would just make it more awesome!!! Don’t let anyone get you down espically if some one puts something negative on the survey because it is so so great already.”

We got no negative feedback (just constructive criticism), but thank you for your concern!

“um. keep doing this. i like it. it helps fill the gaping void in my soul“

Mood.

“Thanks for making the survey, caring about our feedback, and being awesome overall :)”

Of course! This is not just our blog, this is the Marauders fandom blog. Your feedback means everything to us and we hope you will like the changes we’ll make in response to it.

And that covers all of it! Cookies to anyone who read all of that! Keep an eye out for those new mod applications if you’re interested in joining our team!

We’ll be taking a tiny little hiatus as we’re figuring some stuff out.

#admin #survey #survey results #updates

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terra-writes · 5 years ago

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Blog FAQ

Figured I would set one of these up this time around! If I make any additions or edits to this I’ll make a post letting you guys know!

You’ve said “Terra” is just the name you go by online, so can we know your real name?

Simply put? No. My real name is incredibly unique and I would rather keep my online life and real life as separate as I can since where I live, fic writing is largely frowned upon. Also, I’m probably going to explain this bad, but I was told if I wanted to get published I’d have to delete all my fics or write under a different name so there was no crossover between the two. I choose instead to write my fic under a different name to save myself some trouble later on. To those that have learned my real name, I ask that you please don’t spread it around.

What is your general activity like on this blog?

Well last November I started a job where I work a standard 40 hour week. I’m generally away from home from 11am to about 9pm 5 days a week. I do have a pretty set schedule, so for now I’m always off Mondays and Fridays. This blog isn’t my main one, so the only times I’m online and able to check it, is when I’m at home and on my laptop. So except for the days that I’m off, I’ll likely only ever be online in the evenings. If I go to post a work, I’ll likely always schedule it to post between 12 and 1pm the following day.

What is your timezone?

I live in, and operate out of US Central Time. If you don’t quite know how much to add/subtract, the United states is divided into 4 timezones: Eastern time is one hour ahead of me, Mountain Time is one hour behind, and Pacific Time is 2 hours behind me. I don’t quite know how to calculate it for overseas timezones but if people send in the calculations for their timezone I can always edit them in here.

What is your uploading schedule like?

I can’t really say I have one. Every time I’ve tried to keep to one It hasn’t always worked out for me for some reason or another.

How does your tagging system operate?

I always try to keep the tags as relevant and to the point as possible, since tumblr has a limited amount of tags you can add to a post. Here is a small list of what I will tag:

Characters with a significant relevance/presence to the current plot. I might not tag certain characters if they show up in a work if their plot relevance was minor/they only spoke like once in the entire thing to save space.

The fandom

The type of work (Headcanon, ask game, etc. This might be combined with he above bullet point ex: “mha headcanons”)

if the work is fluff, angst, nsfw. Side note, my nsfw tag for this blog will be the word “sin” so works would be tagged with “mha sin” or “haikyuu sin” and things like that.

If the work is part of a series, I will tag the name of it.

If the work involves any oc’s of mine, I will tag their name like I would any other character.

If I reblog a work from someone else, I will try to include all the tags they used as well as what type of work it is, such as “AU,” “reader insert,” “oc story,” etc. Reblogged works will always contain the tag “other people’s writing”

I will always try to tag trigger warnings/any potential triggering content. However, if I run out of space in the tags, all potentially triggering content will always be listed at the top of the work in bold. And all content of the work will always be below a “read more.” If there is anything you want me to tag/list at the top of my work. Please DM or send in an ask letting me know what content you want me to provide additional warnings for. I will never purposefully not tag a trigger, so if a work I’ve posted is missing a tag, please notify me as soon as you notice it so I can add it!

Writing will always be tagged with “terra writes” while almost every other kind of post will be tagged with “terra says.” This includes asks, announcements, updates, etc. I don’t recommend blacklisting the “terra says” tag, but most of the time other types of posts will be tagged with an additional secondary tag (update time, answered asks, poll time) So if you don’t want to see specific types of posts like polls, I would recommend blacklisting the “poll time” tag instead of the “terra says” tag.

You didn’t tag x trigger in your story/Can you please tag x in stories going forward?

Of course! If I forgot to tag something/tagged something wrong, please notify me! I often use the New X-Kit tag bundle extension and don’t always remember to delete a tag or include one. I’m only human and am prone to making mistakes even when trying to be as diligent as possible! I am also aware that people can have very different triggers, and I’m not always aware of what may or may not be a trigger. So if there’s something you want me to tag, send me an ask! I’ll always tag thins as “cw: <insert trigger>”

Also please don’t ever assume I’m purposefully not tagging a trigger. Sometimes I genuinely miss putting the tag in/didn’t know the story needed it included.

Do you have a tag list?

Not currently! If you’re interested in being added please feel free to send me an ask or IM letting me know if you just wanted to be tagged in stuff involving a certain character, fandom, type of writing (drabble/headcanon), or series or any combination. I’ll keep a list in my drafts of the usernames and what you want to be tagged in. If you ever want to be removed, you’ll have to send me an ask letting me know.

What fandoms are you in?/What fandoms will you write for?

You can find a complete list of fandoms that I will write for here!

However, there are a few other fandoms I’m in that I just don’t feel like writing for. Those include: DC comics (mainly Young Justice), Pokemon, and Attack on Titan. I’m probably forgetting some, so I’ll update this list as I remember them. If you want to know if I’m in a fandom/will write for one, please send me an ask!

Do you write m/m, w/w, nonbinary, different ethnicities, etc?

Yes! If I’m writing a reader-insert story, I always try to keep the reader as gender-neutral and vague as possible unless something is specifically ask of me in the request itself. However to some degree I take liberties with the background of the reader. I will often make up a family situation, living arrangement etc. Again if there is anything specific about the reader you want me to include, please let me know.

In the case of sin, I always default to a female gender/parts since that is what I am most familiar with. If you would like it to be non-specified/male parts/etc. you will need to tell me in the request itself.

Can I get a shout out?

You can! There’s absolutely 0 things wrong with asking for one and don’t let other people make you feel like shit for it. I know it can be hard starting a blog and getting your name out there, especially after the most recent updates which make it even harder for works to show up in the tumblr search function. This is why reblogging people’s works is even more important now than it had been in the past. I’m more than willing to give your blog a shout out if you need it! Feel free to send me an ask off anon from the blog, send an IM so I can make a post with the blog’s name, or even just ask me to reblog a story I liked from your blog.

Do you have any Fic/Blog recs?

I’m pretty terrible about having the time to go and read as much fic as I used to be able to do, so I can’t really promote many other blogs than one’s I’ve already been following for a while/blogs of friends. Maybe one day that will change and I hope it does but as of right now I don’t think I’d be able to put together a very good list for people.

Do you write Dark Content?

I do not! However, this doesn’t mean I’m on a crusade against writers that do. As long as the people who write content like that keep everything tagged so that people who don’t want to read it, can skip over it, I literally do not care what they write about. But on a personal level, I do not want to write content like that, so I will not write or reblog dark content works on this blog.

If any dark content blog want to interact with my blog/works, they can do so. Just because I choose not to engage in dark content does not mean I am going to bar people that do from reading/interacting with my works if they enjoy it. I do ask that any dark content writers don’t reblog/reply to any nsfw posts of mine and add dark content to them.

#faq

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theliberaltony · 6 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

One of FiveThirtyEight’s goals has always been to get people to think more carefully about probability. When we’re forecasting an upcoming election or sporting event, we’ll go to great lengths to analyze and explain the sources of real-world uncertainty and the extent to which events — say, a Senate race in Texas and another one in Florida — are correlated with one another. We’ll spend a lot of time working on how to build robust models that don’t suffer from p-hacking or overfitting and which will perform roughly as well when we’re making new predictions as when we’re backtesting them. There’s a lot of science in this, as well as a lot of art. We really care about the difference between a 60 percent chance and a 70 percent chance.

That’s not always how we’re judged, though. Both our fans and our critics sometimes look at our probabilistic forecasts as binary predictions. Not only might they not care about the difference between a 60 percent chance and a 70 percent chance, they sometimes treat a 55 percent chance the same way as a 95 percent one.

There are also frustrating moments related to the sheer number of forecasts that we put out — for instance, forecasts of hundreds of U.S. House races, or dozens of presidential primaries, or the thousands of NBA games in a typical season. If you want to make us look bad, you’ll have a lot of opportunities to do so because some — many, actually — of these forecasts will inevitably be “wrong.”

Sometimes, there are more sophisticated-seeming criticisms. “Sure, your forecasts are probabilistic,” people who think they’re very clever will say. “But all that means is that you can never be wrong. Even a 1 percent chance happens sometimes, after all. So what’s the point of it all?”

I don’t want to make it sound like we’ve had a rough go of things overall.1 But we do think it’s important that our forecasts are successful on their own terms — that is, in the way that we have always said they should be judged. That’s what our latest project — “How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?” — is all about.

That way is principally via calibration. Calibration measures whether, over the long run, events occur about as often as you say they’re going to occur. For instance, of all the events that you forecast as having an 80 percent chance of happening, they should indeed occur about 80 out of 100 times; that’s good calibration. If these events happen only 60 out of 100 times, you have problems — your forecasts aren’t well-calibrated and are overconfident. But it’s just as bad if they occur 98 out of 100 times, in which case your forecasts are underconfident.

Calibration isn’t the only thing that matters when judging a forecast. Skilled forecasting also requires discrimination — that is, distinguishing relatively more likely events from relatively less likely ones. (If at the start of the 68-team NCAA men’s basketball tournament, you assigned each team a 1 in 68 chance of winning, your forecast would be well-calibrated, but it wouldn’t be a skillful forecast.) Personally, I also think it’s important how a forecast lines up relative to reasonable alternatives, e.g., how it compares with other models or the market price or the “conventional wisdom.” If you say there’s a 29 percent chance of event X occurring when everyone else says 10 percent or 2 percent or simply never really entertains X as a possibility, your forecast should probably get credit rather than blame if the event actually happens. But let’s leave that aside for now. (I’m not bitter or anything. OK, maybe I am.)

The catch about calibration is that it takes a fairly large sample size to measure it properly. If you have just 10 events that you say have an 80 percent chance of happening, you could pretty easily have them occur five out of 10 times or 10 out of 10 times as the result of chance alone. Once you get up to dozens or hundreds or thousands of events, these anomalies become much less likely.

But the thing is, FiveThirtyEight has made thousands of forecasts. We’ve been issuing forecasts of elections and sporting events for a long time — for more than 11 years, since the first version of the site was launched in March 2008. The interactive lists almost all of the probabilistic sports and election forecasts that we’ve designed and published since then. You can see how all our U.S. House forecasts have done, for example, or our men’s and women’s March Madness predictions. There are NFL games and of course presidential elections. There are a few important notes about the scope of what’s included in the footnotes,2 and for years before FiveThirtyEight was acquired by ESPN/Disney/ABC News (in 2013) — when our record-keeping wasn’t as good — we’ve sometimes had to rely on archived versions of the site if we couldn’t otherwise verify exactly what forecast was published at what time.

What you’ll find, though, is that our calibration has generally been very, very good. For instance, out of the 5,589 events (between sports and politics combined) that we said had a 70 chance of happening (rounded to the nearest 5 percent), they in fact occurred 71 percent of the time. Or of the 55,853 events[footnotes]Although we’ve issued a lot of forecasts, the sheer numbers slightly exaggerate the volume of what we’ve done because a lot of forecasts are somewhat redundant, i.e., the odds of the New York Mets winning the World Series on May 15 don’t differ much from the odds on May 16, but each one is technically a separate forecast. The statistical techniques that we’ve applied to measure whether forecasts are well-calibrated account for these redundancies.[/footnote] that we said had about a 5 percent chance of occurring, they happened 4 percent of the time.

We did discover a handful of cases where we weren’t entirely satisfied with a model’s performance. For instance, our NBA game forecasts have historically been a bit overconfident in lopsided matchups — e.g., teams that were supposed to win 85 percent of the time in fact won only 79 percent of the time. These aren’t huge discrepancies, but given a large enough sample, some of them are on the threshold of being statistically significant. In the particular case of the NBA, we substantially redesigned our model before this season, so we’ll see how the new version does.3

Our forecasts of elections have actually been a little bit underconfident, historically. For instance, candidates who we said were supposed to win 75 percent of the time have won 83 percent of the time. These differences are generally not statistically significant, given that election outcomes are highly correlated and that we issue dozens of forecasts (one every day, and sometimes using several different versions of a model) for any given race. But we do think underconfidence can be a problem if replicated over a large enough sample, so it’s something we’ll keep an eye out for.

It’s just not true, though, that there have been an especially large number of upsets in politics relative to polls or forecasts (or at least not relative to FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts). In fact, there have been fewer upsets than our forecasts expected.

There’s a lot more to explore in the interactive, including Brier skill scores for each of our forecasts, which do account for discrimination as well as calibration. We’ll continue to update the interactive as elections or sporting events are completed.

None of this ought to mean that FiveThirtyEight or our forecasts — which are a relatively small part of what we do — are immune from criticism or that our models can’t be improved. We’re studying ways to improve all the time.

But we’ve been publishing forecasts for more than a decade now, and although we’ve sometimes tried to do an after-action report following a big election or sporting event, this is the first time we’ve studied all of our forecast models in a comprehensive way. So we were relieved to discover that our forecasts really do what they’re supposed to do. When we say something has a 70 percent chance of occurring, it doesn’t mean that it will always happen, and it isn’t supposed to. But empirically, 70 percent in a FiveThirtyEight forecast really does mean about 70 percent, 30 percent really does mean about 30 percent, 5 percent really does mean about 5 percent, and so forth. Our forecasts haven’t always been right, but they’ve been right just about as often as they’re supposed to be right.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nate Silver

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patriotsnet · 3 years ago

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How Do Republicans Feel About The Wall

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-do-republicans-feel-about-the-wall/

How Do Republicans Feel About The Wall

Half Of Republicans Believe False Accounts Of Deadly Us Capitol Riot

How do Hispanic Americans truly feel about the border wall?

7 Min Read

WASHINGTON -Since the deadly Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, former President Donald Trump and his Republican allies have pushed false and misleading accounts to downplay the event that left five dead and scores of others wounded. His supporters appear to have listened.

Three months after a mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol to try to overturn his November election loss, about half of Republicans believe the siege was largely a non-violent protest or was the handiwork of left-wing activists trying to make Trump look bad, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll has found.

Six in 10 Republicans also believe the false claim put out by Trump that Novembers presidential election was stolen from him due to widespread voter fraud, and the same proportion of Republicans think he should run again in 2024, the March 30-31 poll showed.

Since the Capitol attack, Trump, many of his allies within the Republican Party and right-wing media personalities have publicly painted a picture of the days events jarringly at odds with reality.

Hundreds of Trumps supporters, mobilized by the former presidents false claims of a stolen election, climbed walls of the Capitol building and smashed windows to gain entry while lawmakers were inside voting to certify President Joe Bidens election victory. The rioters – many of them sporting Trump campaign gear and waving flags – also included known white supremacist groups such as the Proud Boys.

DANGEROUS SPIN ON REALITY

They Just Come For Show

The four House Republicans were unfamiliar with the history of the fight over Santa Ana.

It was not addressed by the Border Patrol agents who led the morning excursion. And by the time E&E News connected with Chapman, the delegation had departed the refuge for a briefing on Border Patrol activities at the local headquarters of the Texas Department of Public Safety.

Later, when asked whether Westerman thought the environmental impact of installing a wall at Santa Ana and in other refuge areas was a necessary sacrifice to stop the flow of illegal immigration, the lawmaker said it didnt sound unreasonable.

One hundred and fifty feet kind of sounds like what the right of way would be on a levee, but I dont know, he said. Obviously, if youre going to build a wall, theres going to be clearing. And from what Ive seen, stories Ive heard about human trafficking, the rapes, the deaths yeah, I think its worth building the deterrents.

At the National Butterfly Center a 100-acre nature preserve that was also exempted from having a border wall built on its land in the same 2019 spending package Executive Director Marianna Trevino Wright said she thought the GOP lawmakers were ignorant by choice.

I think they have no idea, Trevino Wright asserted. They come just for show. Theyre not interested.

The real litterbugs, she contended, were the officers with Border Patrol.

There’s Something Happening Here

But he uses a different touchstone: Occupy Wall Street, the left-leaning anti-establishment movement that blossomed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

“This is Occupy Wall Street Part 2, but this time it is on their turf, and there are real financial consequences,” he said. LeGate, who received a $100,000 Thiel fellowship to drop out of college and start a company when he was 18 years old in 2013, has been watching the WallStreetBets Reddit discussion for several years.

He said he is seeing increasing frustration and anger, which is exploding in the Covid pandemic era and it is bringing together the traditional political left and right.

“People were willing to take a risk on Trump and now they’re willing to take a risk in the markets,” he said. “A lot of people just want to see the world burn right now, and they’re enjoying watching it happen.”

He said he’s already seeing people on the WallStreetBets Reddit page looking for new targets and there are two themes. First, they’re looking for highly shorted stocks where big hedge funds might have a lot of leverage. And second, they’re looking for nostalgia plays to bring back the companies from their youth. That’s why Nokia, Blackberry and Blockbuster are all getting attention.

Border Walls In The Middle East

One major proof of concept that Republicans supporting a Mexican border wall cite is the success of similar walls in the Middle East. For example, walls along the Israeli-Palestinian border reportedly cut down illegal immigration between the countries. Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who is also the chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, stated that he was impressed with a system of fences he had inspected along the Israeli border with Palestinian territories. Johnson stated Im always looking for best practices. Its been incredibly effective. They had thousands of illegal immigrants; its down to the teens.

House Republicans Propose $10 Billion For Trumps Border Wall

House Republicans on Wednesday unveiled a plan to provide $10 billion for President Donald Trumps border wall with Mexico, a bill unlikely to clear the Senate but which could fuel a shutdown fight in December.

Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mike McCaul said his panel will vote on the legislation next week. The bill also would add 10,000 more border patrol agents and Customs and Border Protection officers, tap the National Guard to patrol the southern border and target people who have overstayed visas.

Now that we have a partner in the White House who has made this a top priority, its time to send a bill to President Trumps desk so we can deliver the American people the security they have long demanded and deserve, McCaul said in a statement.

The bill represents Republicans opening salvo in both the looming year-end government funding fight and high-stakes negotiations over undocumented immigrants brought to the United States as children.

It almost certainly wont pass the Senate, where at least eight Democrats would be needed to clear a 60-vote threshold.

Partisans Approve Their Partys Approach To Shutdown Negotiations Disapprove Of Other Partys

Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 76% approve of how Trump is handling shutdown talks, including 50% who say they strongly approve of Trumps approach. In contrast, just 4% of Democrats approve of Trumps handling of the negotiations, while 93% disapprove .

The overall pattern is similar in views of Republican leaders in Congress: 69% of Republicans approve of their partys leaders handling of negotiations, while just 10% of Democrats approve.

And while about seven-in-ten Democrats and Democratic leaners approve of the way Democratic leaders in Congress are handling the shutdown negotiations, just 11% of Republicans say the same.

Republicans Pray For A Border Crisis To Bring Biden Down

Joe Biden and his programs are popular. Republicans cant lay a glove on him. So theyve settled on immigration as the way to drag him into the mud.

Guillermo Arias/Getty

Republicans are crazy about immigration. No, really. The issue makes them loco. Just listen to the things theyre saying. Many of them have lost touch with reality.

Or maybe Republicans are crazy like a fox. The GOP seems to have once again pinned all of its hopes for retaking powerin this case, by winning back control of the Senate in the 2022 midterm elections and possibly regaining seats in the House of Representativeson the immigration issue. If either of those things happen, Republicans will be in decent shape to try to retake the White House in 2024.

President Joe Biden has only been in office for about 60 days, and Republicans who want to attack him and his administration dont have a lot of material with which to work.

Thats what some of the current fearmongering over the situation at the U.S.-Mexico borderabout half of itis all about. The other half is made up of good ol fashioned nativism and racism. Thats one reason why Republicans act like the prospect of what could turn out to be 100,000 would-be refugees from Central America mostly women and children is the end of Western civilization as we know it.

Here we are again. And the same Republicans who were quiet and subdued when former President Donald Trump confronted this same problem now cant stop talking about this being a crisis.

Republicans Spent Two Years Resisting Trumps Border Wall What Changed

Since the government shutdown 25 days ago, Republicans have largely defended the need for a border wall. While there appear to be some cracks in support, most are standing by the presidents insistence on funding.

As recently as September, The Washington Post described it this way:

The same Republican lawmakers who rushed through the tax bill Trump wanted, confirmed his first Supreme Court pick and are fighting to defend his second, and have remained largely deferential amid multiple scandals, have taken a far different approach when it comes to one of Trumps most memorable campaign promises deeming the wall to be impractical, unrealistic and too costly.

Most GOP lawmakers didnt come right out and say that, of course.

Instead, for the first two years of Trumps presidency, GOP lawmakers avoided the wall debate completely. In September 2017, USA Today took on the laborious task of surveying every member of Congress to determine their position on Trumps wall. At the time, the White House was requesting $1.6 billion to begin wall construction. The survey found that just 69 of the 292 Republicans in Congress said they supported Trumps funding request. Three outright opposed it, but the majority avoided answering the question directly.

Shortly after Trumps inauguration, Sen. Lindsey O. Graham , Trumps onetime nemesis turned close ally, told Politico that the border wall is probably not a smart investment.

Every Congressperson Along Southern Border Opposes Border Wall Funding

How would Republicans build Donald Trump’s wall? BBC News

Nine congressional representatives serve the districts that line the 2,000-mile southern border. They are men, women, freshman politicians and Washington veterans. The Democrats among them span liberal ideologies, while one of them is a Republican.

But they all have one thing in common: each is against President Donald Trump‘s border wall.

Last week, the House of Representatives passed a multi-bill package that provided funding for federal agencies and reinstated Department of Homeland Security appropriations without offering any new border wall funding. All nine of the politicians serving in districts along the border voted in favor of the bills, which were an effective rebuke of the Trump administration’s request for $5.7 billion in border wall funding.

“It’s a 4th-century solution to a 21st century problem,” said Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat and one of the lawmakers along the southern border who voted against funding the wall.

Gonzalez doesn’t oppose border security. He said, “Nobody wants stronger border control than me.” But he’s against adding to the existing border wall because he doesn’t “think it brings real border security and it comes at a major cost to taxpayers,” the lawmaker said Tuesday in a telephone interview with CBS News.

“At the time I thought we were going to be able to have a reasonable conversation,” Gonzalez said. “I had no idea it was going to get this crazy.”

Everybody Look What’s Going Down

Holmes believes the key to understanding the power of this new movement is the gamification of investing melded with an anti-elite fervor. Sticking it to hedge funds and potentially making a lot of money is, simply, fun. And if you believe its also the right thing to do, and thrive on the engagement of a community of like-minded traders, so much the better.

“When things really get going is when the fun meets the purpose,” Holmes said. “This is the perfect storm of those two.”

His warning to Wall Street is: understand this. Be willing to scrutinize yourself. This not going away, and it is probably bigger than you think.

“People need to take the time to understand the social dynamics of this. What are the problems that have created this class of retail investor who seek to completely destroy your industry, and how do you remedy that?” Holmes said.

Holmes said he has spent the past decade watching American politics turned inside out. An earlier generation of politicians spent their time raising money at country club ballrooms from hundreds of donors writing $500 or $1,000 checks.

But now they spend their time on the internet raising money from millions of donors making $5 and $20 contributions. In politics, the retail money turned out to be bigger much bigger — than the institutional money. And that’s driven massive political spending inflation: the big Senate campaigns that once cost $15 million now cost $100 million.

There’s Battle Lines Being Drawn

But what explains that nostalgic impulse in the midst of a revolution? It is the same emotion that animated the MAGA movement which, after all, stood for make America great, again. It is a desire to return to an earlier time that the members of the movement remember as better than today.

“There’s a feeling I sense across society that people want to go back to a simpler time,” LeGate said. “No one likes Covid. People don’t feel the economy is fair. Everything looks better in hindsight.”

And he argues that efforts to regulate trading will feel to Reddit traders more like suppression, and could fuel more anger.

“If someone on Main Street loses half their portfolio in a day, nothing’s going to happen. But if a hedge fund does, they literally stop the trading,” he said. “I myself question whether this is really about protecting the individual investor or protecting the hedge fund.”

Public Disapproves Of How Shutdown Negotiations Are Being Handled

Most Americans offer negative evaluations of the way that the nations political leaders in both parties Donald Trump, Democratic congressional leaders and Republican congressional leaders are handling negotiations over the shutdown.

Overall, just 36% of the public approves of how Trump is handling negotiations over the government shutdown, including 23% who say they strongly approve. About six-in-ten disapprove of Trumps approach to the negotiations, including 53% who say they strongly disapprove.

Views of how Republican leaders in Congress are handling shutdown negotiations generally parallel evaluations of Trump. Six-in-ten Americans say they disapprove of the way Republican congressional leaders are handling negotiations, while just 36% say they approve. However, fewer Americans characterize their views of GOP leaders handling of negotiations as strong approval or disapproval than say this about the president.

Public views of Democratic leaders handling of the shutdown talks are somewhat more positive than views of Trump or GOP leaders. Still, more disapprove than approve .

Intensity Of Trumps Support Increases

Also in the poll, 46 percent of voters approve of President Trumps job performance, which is consistent with the other NBC/WSJ polls over the past year and a half.

But other numbers in the survey his strong job approval ticking up to its all-time high, his positive rating jumping to its highest level since after his inauguration prompts GOP pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies to call this Trumps best NBC/WSJ poll in three years.

Still, 49 percent of all voters say they are very uncomfortable about Trump when it comes to his re-election bid in 2020.

Thats compared with 43 percent who are very uncomfortable with Sanders, 36 percent with Warren and 35 percent with Biden.

Klobuchar: Trump’s Actions Are Like A ‘global Watergate’ Scandal

Today, as Democrats in the House of Representatives move toward bringing articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump, with the next Judiciary Committee hearing of evidence set for Monday, few Democrats are still clinging to the hope that Republicans will reach a breaking point with Trump like they did with Nixon.

“I really don’t think there is any fact that would change their minds,” Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., a member of the House Intelligence Committee, told NBC News.

Why? Two key changes since Nixon: a massive divide in American political life we hate the other team more than ever before and a media climate that fuels and reinforces that chasm, powered by Fox News on the Republican side.

Himes said he was “a little stunned by the unanimity on the Republican side,” especially among retiring lawmakers who don’t have to worry about surviving a GOP primary had they gone against Trump. “We’re in a place right now where all that matters to my Republican colleagues is the defense of the president,” he added.

No Republican congressmen have said they support impeachment. In the Senate, the entire GOP voted to condemn the impeachment inquiry, except for three moderates: Mitt Romney of Utah, Susan Collins of Maine, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. The three have stopped short of saying they support Trump’s impeachment, however, and it would take at least 20 Republican senators to vote to convict him in a Senate trial for removal to succeed.

What Do Republicans Believe In

Do all Republicans believe the same things? Of course not. Rarely do members of a single political group agree on all issues. Even among Republicans, there are differences of opinion. As a group, they do not agree on every issue.

Some folks vote Republican because of fiscal concerns. Often, that trumps concerns they may have about social issues. Others are less interested in the fiscal position of the party. They vote they way they do because of religion. They believe Republicans are the party of morality. Some simply want less government. They believe only Republicans can solve the problem of big government. Republicans spend less . They lower taxes: some people vote for that alone.

However, the Republican Party does stand for certain things. So I’m answering with regard to the party as a whole. Call it a platform. Call them core beliefs. The vast majority of Republicans adhere to certain ideas.

So what do Republicans believe? Here are their basic tenets:

Questions Ahead Of The Democratic National Convention

Andrew Redleaf, founder of the hedge fund company Whitebox Advisors, has been a Republican donor in the past. He gave to the campaign of 2012 presidential candidate Mitt Romney. He calls himself a libertarian conservative who favors free trade and immigration.

This year, he’s given money to the Lincoln Project, a group of conservative never-Trumpers who are running scathing ads against the president in swing states.

“I’d like there to be a right-of-center, limited-government party … which is not the Trumpist Republican Party,” Redleaf says.

Redleaf is wary of Democrats and has no particular affection for Biden.

But the former vice president is a known commodity on Wall Street and is widely seen as a more centrist, acceptable alternative to more liberal Democrats who ran for president, such as Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

Biden has also been a top recipient of financial industry money for decades as a senator from Delaware, home to financial and credit card companies.

“He’s not somebody that the industry is particularly afraid of,” Bryner says. “So I think that we would see them kind of hopeful that he would be a more moderating influence, whereas Trump can be quite unpredictable.”

Widening Party Divide Over Expanding The Border Wall

El Chapo financing Trump border wall is a yes vote: GOP lawmaker

Public views of a U.S.-Mexico border wall have changed little over the past three years. But the partisan gap has widened, as Republicans have become more supportive of a border wall, while Democratic support has declined.

Currently, 58% of Americans oppose substantially expanding the wall along the U.S. border with Mexico, while 40% favor the proposal.

Since early 2016, roughly six-in-ten Americans have opposed building or expanding the border wall .

Yet partisan differences are now wider than they have ever been. Today, 82% of Republicans and Republican leaners favor substantially expanding the wall along the U.S-Mexico border. Over the past year alone, Republican support for expanding the border wall has increased 10 percentage points . Over the same period, the share of Democrats who favor expanding the U.S.-Mexico border wall has declined from 13% to 6%.

Conservative Republicans and Republican leaners overwhelmingly favor expanding the U.S.-Mexico border wall . Moderate and liberal Republicans are somewhat less supportive .

Overwhelming shares of both liberal Democrats and conservative and moderate Democrats oppose expanding the border wall.

As in the past, opinions about expanding the U.S.-Mexico border wall are divided by race, education and age. Whites are more than twice as likely as blacks or Hispanics to favor expanding the border wall.

Why Do Republicans Behave The Way They Do

Why are the Republicans so mean-spirited when it comes to the poor and so indulgent when it comes to the rich?

Why are the Republicans so mean-spirited when it comes to the poor and so indulgent when it comes to the rich? Thats the incessant question as posed by liberals today about the partys now enacted tax reform. Not only does the bill include another attack on Obamacare, but it provides the pretext the need to reduce deficits to go after other long-held goals, the end of Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security.

The answer should be obvious by now. Republicans behave as they do because they can get away with it! Its no more complicated than that.

Contrary to liberal opinion, Republican politics isnt out of the mainstream provided we push the clock back sufficiently. A political economy without social services and entitlements is in fact the default position of the capitalist mode of production from its inception. If recent comments from Republican Sens. Orin Hatch and Charles Grassley sound like characters from a Charles Dickens novel their barely disguised contempt for the working poor that should come as no surprise. Such attitudes were almost de rigueur for ruling elites in capitals long ascent. The constant refrain of the rich Why should we be taxed to pay for the education of the children of the irresponsible poor? explains why public school education became a widely accepted norm only in the 20th century.

How Dems aided and abetted

What Republicans And Democrats Have In Common On Wall Street Regulation

The Democratic and Republican parties disagree on most major issues. When it comes to Wall Street, however, it’s a mixed bag. Take the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010.

Democrats believe the bill has reined in the type of out-of-control behavior that led to the near collapse of the banking industry in 2008 and prevented a similar crisis. Republicans have criticized the legislation calling it “the Democrats legislative Godzilla.” They feel the financial regulations have made it too difficult for small lenders and community banks and has indirectly slowed the growth of small businesses.

Regulation of the financial services industry has been a major issue not only in the current presidential election but in house and senate races. Democrats believe that the electorate largely sides with them that banks have overstepped and that they can use their position to win votes and take back the Senate. Republicans currently hold a majority 54 votes. Because of gerrymandering rules, Democrats will have a tougher time retaking the House.

Dodd-Frank was intended to increase transparency and accountability in the financial services industry and to protect consumers. Among other things, the bill created a new consumer protection agency and standards for a number of common financial services products.

A Shift In Immigration Thinking

Representative Luis Gutierrez of Illinois is one of the Houses most outspoken Democrats on immigration reform, and she understands this shift, and believes it is essential. Lives are at stake and the lives of Dreamers are more important to me than bricks, Gutierrez said. If advocates would reject any money for Trumps wall in exchange for freedom and legalization and eventual citizenship for the Dreamers, I understand their choice, but for my part, I would lay bricks myself if I thought it would save the Dreamers. For me, the very real attacks on legal immigration are far greater threats than bricks and drones and technology on the border.

This shift has also led Democratic views on a border wall to soften in general. As Trump has become less demanding, Democrats have begun to consider what type of barrier, and what size, they would be willing to agree to if push came to shove. The 2,000 mile wall that Democrats had feared would be a looming symbol of America turning inward on itself is becoming something closer to the 2006 plan; some new barriers, some new monitoring technology, and that is somewhat agreeable to Democrats, especially if they can garner support in other arenas in exchange for it.

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statetalks · 3 years ago

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How Do Republicans Feel About The Wall

Half Of Republicans Believe False Accounts Of Deadly Us Capitol Riot

How do Hispanic Americans truly feel about the border wall?

7 Min Read

Since the Capitol attack, Trump, many of his allies within the Republican Party and right-wing media personalities have publicly painted a picture of the days events jarringly at odds with reality.

DANGEROUS SPIN ON REALITY

They Just Come For Show

The four House Republicans were unfamiliar with the history of the fight over Santa Ana.

I think they have no idea, Trevino Wright asserted. They come just for show. Theyre not interested.

The real litterbugs, she contended, were the officers with Border Patrol.

There’s Something Happening Here

But he uses a different touchstone: Occupy Wall Street, the left-leaning anti-establishment movement that blossomed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

He said he is seeing increasing frustration and anger, which is exploding in the Covid pandemic era and it is bringing together the traditional political left and right.

Border Walls In The Middle East

House Republicans Propose $10 Billion For Trumps Border Wall