#friederike otto

[higherentity]

[tomorrowusa]

There is "a tiny window" of hope remaining for keeping the climate from spinning out of control. But to keep that window open we need to keep professional climate deniers out of power.

Increasingly severe weather impacts had also been long signposted by scientists, although the speed and intensity of the reality scared some. The off-the-charts sea temperatures and Antarctic sea ice loss were seen as the most shocking. The feeling of entering a new age of devastation was the result of the return of the natural El Niño phenomenon, which has temporarily turbocharged global heating, they said. Another factor was many people being confronted with extreme weather they had never experienced before, as climate impacts began to clearly stand out from usual weather. The scientists were clear the world had not yet passed a “tipping point” into runaway climate change, but some warned that it got ever closer with continued heating.

The scientists also warned that the “crazy” extreme weather of recent months was just the “tip of the iceberg” compared with the even worse impacts to come. In just a decade the exceptional events of 2023 could be a normal year, unless there is a dramatic increase in climate action. Some further warned that the tendency of climate models to underestimate extreme weather meant we were “flying partially blind” into a future that could be even more catastrophic than anticipated. However, a “tiny window” of opportunity remained open to tackle the climate crisis, they said, with humanity having all the tools needed. The researchers overwhelmingly pointed to one action as critical: slashing the burning of fossil fuels down to zero. “Climate science’s projections are pretty robust over the last decades. Unfortunately, humanity’s stubbornness to spew out ever-higher amounts of greenhouse gases has also been pretty robust,” said Prof Malte Meinshausen, of the University of Melbourne, Australia.

There's a relatively simple prescription to keep things from getting worse.

“We need to stop burning fossil fuels,” said (Imperial College's Dr. Friederike) Otto. “Now – not sometime when we’ve allowed companies to make all the money they possibly can.” Others said the world was on “code red alert” to stop fossil fuel extraction and to fight to halt new exploration projects.

The stats are pretty damned clear about what's happening.

The first step in making things better is to stop them from getting worse. A certain political party in the US pretends that climate change is just "politicization of the weather". Making sure these people are not put in power gives us time to work on solutions.

Why Republicans can’t get out of their climate bind, even as extreme heat overwhelms the US

Even as more Republican politicians are joining the consensus that climate change is real and caused by humans, Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric has driven the party to the right on climate and extreme weather. Trump has called the extremely settled science of climate change a “hoax” and more recently suggested that the impacts of it “may affect us in 300 years.”

Even if some Republicans grudgingly admit that humans cause climate change, the influence of their party's Dear Leader will keep them from taking any action.

And if The Donald choked on a triple cheeseburger tomorrow, don't expect the party to abruptly swerve away from its extremist anti-science positions. It's not just Trump himself, it's Trumpism as exemplified by his Mini-Me Vivek Ramaswamay.

Vivek Ramaswamy calls climate change agenda a ‘hoax’ during debate

Here are some of the current "hoaxes" which Trump lickspittle Vivek doesn't want you to think about too much.

[allthecanadianpolitics]

Environment and Climate Change Canada says it's now able to publicly identify links between episodes of extreme heat and climate change within days of a weather event.

The federal department says that its scientists now have the ability to estimate the degree to which human-induced climate change played a role in a heat wave or extreme heat event within a week of it happening.

Friederike Otto, an internationally renowned climate researcher and one of the global leaders in weather attribution science, said Canada's weather service will be the first in the world to issue rapid analyses of heat events.

Continue Reading

Tagging: @newsfromstolenland

[tieflingkisser]

Why did so many die in Spain? Because Europe still hasn’t accepted the realities of extreme weather

Severe flooding is, unfortunately, inevitable. What isn’t inevitable is how ready we are, from early warning systems to emergency services

At the time of writing, the death toll has risen to 214. Battered cars and other debris are piled up in the streets, large swaths of Valencia remain underwater, and Spain is in mourning. On Sunday, anger erupted as the king and queen of Spain were pelted with mud and other objects by protesters. Why were so many lives lost in a flood that was well forecasted in a wealthy country? From the global north’s vantage point, the climate crisis, caused by the burning of coal, oil and gas, has long been seen as a distant threat, affecting poor people in the global south. This misconception has perpetuated a false sense of security. Scientists have long known that heating the climate with fossil fuel emissions will result in the intensification of floods, storms, heatwaves, drought and wildfires. However, it was not until 2004 that the first attribution study formally linked a weather event – the devastating 2003 European heatwave – to our changing climate. Despite the evidence, people have been hesitant to connect extreme weather with the climate crisis.

[mariacallous]

At the time of writing, the death toll has risen to 214. Battered cars and other debris are piled up in the streets, large swaths of Valencia remain underwater, and Spain is in mourning. On Sunday, anger erupted as the king and queen of Spain were pelted with mud and other objects by protesters. Why were so many lives lost in a flood that was well forecasted in a wealthy country?

From the global north’s vantage point, the climate crisis, caused by the burning of coal, oil and gas, has long been seen as a distant threat, affecting poor people in the global south. This misconception has perpetuated a false sense of security.

Scientists have long known that heating the climate with fossil fuel emissions will result in the intensification of floods, storms, heatwaves, drought and wildfires. However, it was not until 2004 that the first attribution study formally linked a weather event – the devastating 2003 European heatwave – to our changing climate. Despite the evidence, people have been hesitant to connect extreme weather with the climate crisis.

I founded World Weather Attribution in 2014 to shift the conversation. Our attribution studies are carried out quickly, over days or weeks, in the immediate aftermath of weather disasters to inform people in real time about the role of the climate crisis.

A quick analysis following the floods in Spain found that the climate emergency made the extreme rainfall about 12% more intense and twice as likely. Despite this, in Paiporta, where at least 62 people have died, the mayor said floods were not common and “people are not afraid”. But the changing climate is making once-rare events more common.

Record-breaking events such as these complicate preparedness – how do you communicate the extreme danger of something someone has never experienced before?

We saw this play out recently after Hurricane Helene made landfall. More than 200 people died in floods in the inland southern Appalachians region of the US. Despite warnings of “catastrophic and life-threatening” flooding ahead of the disaster, people were still caught out when disaster struck, and many could not appreciate how extreme the downpours were going to be.

However, in Spain, people were only warned as it was happening. Warnings were not sent until many people were already trapped in flooded houses or in underground car parks, trying to move their cars to higher ground.

The same happened – or rather didn’t happen – in Germany in 2021. No information was given on how to act and, crucially, no support was given to those who could not help themselves: in the German town of Sinzig, 12 residents of a home for disabled people drowned. Back in Spain, the deaths of the inhabitants of one care home have already been reported and I fear more disturbing stories such as this will emerge in the weeks to come.

World Weather Attribution has studied 30 devastating floods, and in almost all cases, including in developing countries, we’ve found that the rainfall was well forecast. But as we’ve seen in Spain, forecasting is not enough. The warnings, when they finally came, did not include vital information on where to evacuate to and how.

Local governments and emergency services are the essential mediator between the weather services and the people in harm’s way. They need to be strengthened and not dismantled, as had been the case with the Valencia Emergency Unit.

Clearly, Spain’s disaster systems need to improve. More widely, we need to ask some hard questions about international disaster funds – should the EU have funds for prevention, rather than cleaning up the mess after a disaster has struck? In my view, it absolutely has to increase funds and develop coordinated plans.

We will see more extreme weather events as long as we burn fossil fuels. Today we are at 1.3C of warming, but we are on track to experience up to 3C by 2100, which would mean similar floods in Spain increasing in frequency and severity. Without creating an action plan and knowing exactly how to implement it, as practised in drills, death tolls will always be high when a heat record is broken or a new region experiences hurricane-scale forces of rain, as happened in Spain.

Investing in people and emergency services will save lives. But governments also cannot build back the same way. Almost everywhere in Europe where people live, rivers are canalised, and all surfaces are sealed with concrete and asphalt to make a comfortable city for cars. If we want to start caring about people instead, we need to give rivers space again, so that they have somewhere else to go, rather than into people’s homes. Urban sprawl across Europe is creating ever more sealed surfaces and exposing an increasing number of people to devastating floods.

We Europeans need to learn and rebuild for a future that is only just emerging. But most urgently, we have to practise survival in a climate-changed world.

[allthegeopolitics]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/04/spain-deaths-europe-realities-extreme-weather-flooding

[darkmaga-returns]

A week ago, the BBC published an article claiming that “researchers have been quick to point out the role that rising temperatures have had in making the Spanish floods worse.”

The propaganda news agency quoted Dr. Friederike Otto from Imperial College London as saying. “No doubt about it, these explosive downpours were intensified by climate change.”

It’s a shame BBC didn’t fact-check their article because according to data, the claim that floods were worse in Spain because of climate change is false. Additionally, BBC ignored Spain’s long history of sometimes catastrophic floods.

[lesser-known-composers]

Heinrich Schütz (1585-1672) - Schütz: Symphoniae Sacrae II, Op. 10 - No. 1, Mein Herz ist bereit, Gott, SWV 341 ·

Tobias Mäthger · Margret Baumgartl · Matthias Müller · Andreas Arend · Friederike Otto · Beate Röllecke · Hans-Christoph Rademann

[nordleuchten]

La Fayette and the "Emkendorfer Kreis"

The Emkendorfer Kreis (the Emkendorf Circle) was a Danish-German intellectual society that focused mainly on literature, music and theological discussions. It was formed around Friederike Juliane Gräfin von Reventlow (Countess of Reventlow, pictured below.) The circle counted such luminaires like Matthias Claudius, Friedrich Gottlieb Klopstock, Matthias Claudius, Heinrich Christian Boie, Johann Heinrich Voß and Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi as its members. It was sometimes also referred to as the Weimar des Nordes (the Weimar of the North.)

The name of the group derived from the manor “Emkendorf” (pictured above) that was and to this day still is owned by the von Reventlow family. The von Reventlow family is a noble family with great influence in both Denmark and Germany. Several members of the family were diplomats and held high offices while also having significant influence on the academic and artistic landscape of their day. Although the influence of the family has diminished over the last two centuries, the family still has considerable holdings in northern Germany, is well connected and engaged in local politics. Gut Emkendorf in particular is often the venue for cultural or musical presentations, special markets were craftspeople can sell their goods as well as guided tours that touch on the regional as well as on the family history.

Gut Wittmold and Gut Lehmkuhlen, the two mansions where La Fayette and his family stayed during their exile in Danish-Holstein, are close by and the La Fayette’s as well as friends and other family members were guests at Gut Emkendorf and occasionally present when the Emkendorfer Kreis met. The relationship between the von Reventlow's and the La Fayette’s in particular was rather cold and reserved. I wrote in this post here about Friederike Juliane’s opinion on Adrienne and her sister Pauline, but there was far more to the matter.

Überhaupt hat der Aufenthalt all dieser Fremdlinge in Emkendorf dazu beigetragen, sich über die Ereignisse der Französischen Revolution genauer zu unterrichten, keineswegs aber das Urteil darüber zu mildern. Hier, wo ohnehin die alte ständische Gliederung als einzig wahre Staatsform betrachtet und deutscher Geisteskultur der Vorrang vor jeder anderen, besonders der französischen, gegeben wurde, konnten jene liberalen französischen Royalisten bei allem Mitgefühl für ihr Schicksal doch nicht auf volle Übereinstimmung mit ihren Zielen rechnen. Ein Mann wie Lafayette, der Holstein ebenfalls zu seinem Asyl für kurze Zeit erkor, ist in Emkendorf als unmittelbarer Mitschuldiger an den blutigen Anfängen der Revolution mit eisiger Kälte empfangen und wieder entlassen worden (…)

Otto Brandt, Geistesleben und Politik in Schleswig-Holstein um die Wende des 18. Jahrhunderts, Outlook Verlag GmbH, Frankfurt, 2022, original reprint from 1925, pp. 150-151.

My translation:

In general, the stay of all these foreigners in Emkendorf helped the people in Emkendorf to learn more about the events of the French Revolution, but in no way did it softened their judgment. Here, where the old system of goverment was regarded as the only true form of government and German intellectual culture was given priority over any other, especially French intellectual culture, those liberal French royalists, with all the sympathy for their fate, could not count on full agreement with their ideals. A man like Lafayette, who also chose Holstein as his asylum for a short time, was received in Emkendorf, as a direct accomplice in the bloody beginnings of the revolution, with icy coldness (...)

The next passage partly quotes a letter from Friedrich “Fritz“ Karl Graf von Reventlow (left, Friederike Juliane’s husband) to his brother Cay Friedrich Graf von Reventlow (right) from June 1, 1798

Übrigens war man in Emkendorf überzeugt, dass Lafayette bei „seinem stillen und eingezogenen Wesen“ sich nicht „als Werkzeug brauchen lasse“ und nicht „kleine niedrige Künste und Ränke“ anwende um „den Geist der Revolution auch im Norden zu erregen“.

Otto Brandt, Geistesleben und Politik in Schleswig-Holstein um die Wende des 18. Jahrhunderts, Outlook Verlag GmbH, Frankfurt, 2022, original reprint from 1925, pp. 151.

My translation:

People in Emkendorf were convinced that Lafayette, with “his quiet and withdrawn nature”, would not let anyone “use him as a tool” and would not use “small low arts and intrigues” to “excite the spirit of the revolution in the north as well”.

While I myself always like to point out that La Fayette was far more than the bubbly teenager, he is often made out to be, I find it nevertheless quite remarkable that La Fayette is described here as “quite and withdrawn”. It shows once more that the last years had been a living nightmare for him and his family.

[dxmedstudent]

‘I am an optimistic person’: the scientist who studies climate catastrophes

[hennethgalad]

"governments also cannot build back the same way. Almost everywhere in Europe where people live, rivers are canalised, and all surfaces are sealed with concrete and asphalt to make a comfortable city for cars."

the atmosphere, which weighs fifteen pounds or seven kilos per square inch (stand up straight!) grinds against the planet like a boot on concrete. global warming is making it faster and heavier.

also, the forecasts were corrupted by big oil who own the universities and the scientists. the forecast is much worse. much.

[trendynewsnow]

Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events in Spain: A Stark Warning

Climate Change Intensifies Extreme Weather Events in Spain With the death toll nearing 100 after a staggering year’s worth of rainfall fell within just one day in parts of eastern and southern Spain, rapid assessments by climate scientists indicate that global warming has made such catastrophic events twice as likely and significantly more severe. Dr. Friederike Otto, who leads the World Weather…

[weather-usa]

Study finds Helene was intensified by exceptionally warm water, made up to 500 times more likely due to global warming.

Weather Forecast For 35802 - Huntsville AL:

A new scientific analysis reveals that the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which fueled the deadly Hurricane Helene last month, were made up to 500 times more likely by human-caused climate change. This warming also intensified the hurricane's winds and rainfall.

Helene, a Category 4 hurricane, made landfall in Florida at the end of September, carving a destructive 500-mile path through six states, causing catastrophic flooding and claiming over 230 lives.

Warm ocean waters act as a powerful energy source for storms, and the water Helene passed over was about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average before landfall.

According to the World Weather Attribution, a network of scientists analyzing the impact of climate change on extreme weather using real-world data and climate models, these ultra-warm ocean temperatures were made 200 to 500 times more likely by human-driven climate change from burning fossil fuels.

The analysis, published Wednesday, also found that climate change intensified the extreme winds and torrential rain brought by Helene, making wind speeds along the Florida coast 11% stronger and increasing rainfall by about 10%.

The study found that this additional rainfall resulted in "massive damages" and created "apocalyptic scenes" from Florida to the Southern Appalachians, according to Ben Clarke, a study author and researcher at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute.

Hurricanes as intense as Helene are now about 2.5 times more likely in the region. Once expected every 130 years on average, storms of this magnitude can now be anticipated roughly once every 53 years.

"Climate change is a total game-changer for hurricanes like Helene," Clarke said. "If humans continue to burn fossil fuels, the U.S. will face even more destructive hurricanes."

This study, released Wednesday, coincides with Hurricane Milton, which is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane on Florida’s Gulf Coast, bringing disastrous impacts just two weeks after Helene.

See more:

https://weatherusa.app/zip-code/weather-71826

https://weatherusa.app/zip-code/weather-71827

https://weatherusa.app/zip-code/weather-71828

https://weatherusa.app/zip-code/weather-71831

https://weatherusa.app/zip-code/weather-71832

“The heat that human activities are adding to the atmosphere and oceans is like steroids for hurricanes,” said Bernadette Woods Placky, a study author and chief meteorologist at Climate Central, a nonprofit research group.

Over 90% of global warming in recent decades has occurred in the oceans, providing hurricanes with extra energy to intensify. Rapid intensification—when a hurricane’s wind speed increases by at least 35 mph within 24 hours—has become more common due to climate change.

Helene exemplified this, rapidly intensifying from a Category 2 to Category 4 just hours before hitting Florida's Big Bend at the end of September.

On Monday, Hurricane Milton also became one of the most rapidly intensifying storms on record, surging into a Category 5 in the Gulf of Mexico.

The impacts of these supercharged storms are vast. Western North Carolina, hundreds of miles inland, suffered the deadliest impacts from Helene, with more than 100 people losing their lives.

"Helene is a tragic reminder that it's not just coastal areas at risk," said Gabriel Vecchi, co-author of the study and professor of geosciences at Princeton University. "Wetter and stronger storms now pose a growing threat far inland."

Climate and Average Weather Year Round in 85225 Chandler AZ:

https://www.behance.net/gallery/202817749/Weather-Forecast-For-85225-Chandler-AZ

Wednesday’s report follows two earlier climate analyses from last week, which also concluded that fossil fuel pollution intensified Helene’s rainfall, worsening an already disastrous situation.

Friederike Otto, lead of the World Weather Attribution (WWA) and senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, emphasized that future hurricane impacts could be lessened if the world transitions rapidly to renewable energy.

“Americans shouldn’t have to fear storms more violent than Helene,” Otto said. “We need leaders who are honest about addressing climate change if we want to protect human rights and ensure future generations don't face a world of climate chaos.”

[poligrafoserio]

Ativistas climáticos frustrados com a recusa do IPCC em vincular o clima extremo às emissões de carbono

Em junho passado, a BBC, dependente do estado, relatou que as mudanças climáticas causadas pelo homem tornaram as ondas de calor nos EUA e no México “ 35 vezes mais prováveis ”. Nada fora do comum aqui na grande mídia, com todos, desde o comediante climático 'Jim' Dale até o chefe da ONU Antonio 'Boiling' Guterres, fazendo esses tipos de atribuições bizarras. Mas para aqueles que acompanham de perto a ciência climática e as avaliações do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC), “tais manchetes podem ser difíceis de entender”, observa o distinto escritor científico Roger Pielke. Em um ataque contundente à indústria pseudocientífica de atribuição climática, ele afirma: “nem o IPCC nem a literatura científica subjacente chegam perto de fazer tais afirmações fortes e certas de atribuição”.

Pielke argumenta que a posição extrema de atribuir eventos climáticos ruins individuais está "aproximadamente alinhada" com a extrema esquerda. "A ciência climática não é, ou pelo menos não deveria servir como um proxy para tribos políticas", ele adverte. Mas é claro que é. A fantasia Net Zero é uma agenda nacional e supranacional coletivista que depende cada vez mais da demonização do mau tempo. Com as temperaturas globais aumentando no máximo apenas 0,1 °C por década, o riso só pode ser geral e rachado quando o chefe do IPCC, Jim Skea, afirma que os verões britânicos serão 6 °C mais quentes em menos de 50 anos . Duas pausas prolongadas de temperatura desde 2000 não ajudaram na causa da ebulição global. Além disso, há dúvidas crescentes sobre a confiabilidade dos registros de temperatura por muitas organizações meteorológicas que parecem incapazes de contabilizar adequadamente as corrupções massivas de calor urbano.

O grande problema para os extremistas climáticos de 'extrema esquerda' é que a atribuição de eventos é uma forma, nas palavras de Pielke, de "ciência tática". Essa ciência serve a fins legais e políticos e nem sempre está sujeita à revisão por pares. Como a BBC e outros meios de comunicação podem atestar, o trabalho é "geralmente promovido por meio de comunicados à imprensa". Ele foi desenvolvido em resposta à falha do IPCC em detectar e atribuir a maioria dos tipos de clima extremo, incluindo seca, inundações, tempestades e incêndios florestais ao envolvimento humano, observa Pielke. Pior, o IPCC pode encontrar poucos sinais de envolvimento humano indo para 2100.

Os cientistas não podem responder diretamente se eventos específicos são causados ​​por mudanças climáticas, já que extremos ocorrem naturalmente. Enquanto isso, o IPCC é um tanto desdenhoso sobre atribuição climática, ou como Pielke a denomina, “alquimia de atribuição climática”. Ele observa: “A utilidade ou aplicabilidade dos métodos de atribuição de eventos extremos disponíveis para avaliar riscos relacionados ao clima continua sujeita a debate.” O IPCC é um órgão tendencioso cheio de alarmistas climáticos, mas sua incapacidade de atribuir eventos únicos a humanos é obviamente altamente irritante e um tanto inconveniente para ativistas e suas contrapartes na mídia.

A Dra. Friederike Otto dirige a World Weather Attribution (WWA) no Imperial College London e é uma presença frequente na BBC. A WWA está por trás de muitas das atribuições imediatas do mau tempo a causas humanas e seus motivos são claros. Como a Dra. Otto observou: "Ao contrário de todos os outros ramos da ciência do clima ou da ciência em geral, a atribuição de eventos foi, na verdade, originalmente sugerida com os tribunais em mente." Otto deixa claro que a principal função de tais estudos, parcialmente financiados por bilionários que apoiam o Net Zero e fortemente promovidos pela grande mídia alinhada, é dar suporte a ações judiciais contra empresas de combustíveis fósseis. Ela explica essa estratégia em detalhes na entrevista, ' From Extreme Event Attribution to Climate Litigation '.

A incapacidade do IPCC de atribuir o mau tempo aos humanos tem sido vista pelos defensores do clima como “politicamente problemática”, continua Pielke. Ele observa o trabalho das ativistas climáticas Elizabeth Lloyd e Naomi Oreskes que estão preocupadas que a falta de atribuição “transmita a impressão de que simplesmente não sabemos, o que alimenta a incerteza, a dúvida ou a incompletude, e a tendência geral dos humanos de desconsiderar ameaças que não são iminentes”.

Pereça o pensamento de que deve haver incerteza, dúvida ou incompletude no mundo estabelecido da ciência climática. É claro que é diferente de todos os outros ramos da ciência, pois todas as suas opiniões estão corretas e, consequentemente, não há necessidade do processo inútil de investigação e experimento constantes. Nem é preciso acrescentar que não há dúvidas na BBC, onde a ex- editora da Radio 4 Today , Sarah Sands, escreveu o prefácio de um guia da WWA para jornalistas. Lembrando quando o falecido Nigel Lawson sugeriu que não houve aumento no clima extremo, Sands observou: "Gostaria que tivéssemos este guia para jornalistas para nos ajudar a montar um desafio mais eficaz à sua afirmação". Hoje em dia, Sands se entusiasmou, os estudos de atribuição nos deram "uma visão significativa dos cavaleiros do apocalipse climático".

De sua parte, Otto está ansiosa para reprimir os hereges. Ela estava na vanguarda da recente retratação notória de um artigo em um periódico Springer Nature que declarou que não havia evidências de que o clima estava se deteriorando. Escrito por quatro cientistas italianos e liderados pelo professor Gianluca Alimonti, eles argumentaram que uma emergência climática não era apoiada pelos dados. Otto, que havia trabalhado anteriormente na Escola de Geografia de Oxford por 10 anos, alegou que os cientistas não estavam escrevendo de boa-fé. "Se o periódico se importa com a ciência, eles deveriam retirá-lo em voz alta e publicamente, dizendo que nunca deveria ter sido publicado", ela exigiu.

Artigo original: