#equity market put

[notayesmanseconomics]

What can we expect from the US Federal Reserve at Jackson Hole?

This week central bankers will be licking their lips at the prospect of attacking the wine cellar of the Kansas Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole symposium. It is not a problem for them as we via their employers are paying. All symposium participants, including members of the press, pay a fee to attend. The fees are then used to recover event expenses. Plus a very tight grip is kept on the…

[signode-blog]

Trading Strategies Using the Married Put Option

Introduction to Married Put Options A married put option is a strategy in which an investor holds a long position in a stock and simultaneously buys an at-the-money or out-of-the-money put option for the same stock. This strategy provides downside protection similar to an insurance policy on the stock, allowing the investor to benefit from the stock’s potential upside while limiting losses. Key…

[robertreich]

How Wall Street Priced You Out of a Home

Rent is skyrocketing and home buying is out of reach for millions. One big reason why? Wall Street.

Hedge funds and private equity firms have been buying up hundreds of thousands of homes that would otherwise be purchased by people. Wall Street’s appetite for housing ramped up after the 2008 financial crisis. As you’ll recall, the Street’s excessive greed created a housing bubble that burst. Millions of people lost their homes to foreclosure.

Did the Street learn a lesson? Of course not. It got bailed out. Then it began picking off the scraps of the housing market it had just destroyed, gobbling up foreclosed homes at fire-sale prices — which it then sold or rented for big profits.

Investor purchases hit their peak in 2022, accounting for around 28% of all home sales in America.

Home buyers frequently reported being outbid by cash offers made by investors. So called “iBuyers�� used algorithms to instantly buy homes before offers could even be made by actual humans.

If the present trend continues, by 2030, Wall Street investors may control 40% of U.S. single-family rental homes.

Partly as a result, homeownership — a cornerstone of generational wealth and a big part of the American dream — is increasingly out of reach for a large number of Americans, especially young people.

Now, Wall Street’s feasting has slowed recently due to rising home prices — even the wolves of Wall Street are falling victim to sticker shock. But that hasn’t stopped them from specifically targeting more modestly priced homes — buying up a record share of the country’s most affordable homes at the end of 2023.

They’ve also been most active in bigger cities, particularly in the Sun Belt, which has become an increasingly expensive place to live. And they’re pointedly going after neighborhoods that are home to communities of color.

For example, in one diverse neighborhood in Charlotte, North Carolina, Wall Street-backed investors bought half of the homes that sold in 2021 and 2022. On a single block, investors bought every house but one, and turned them into rentals.

Folks, it’s a vicious cycle: First you’re outbid by investors, then you may be stuck renting from them at excessive prices that leave you with even less money to put up for a new home. Rinse. Repeat.

Now I want to be clear: This is just one part of the problem with housing in America. The lack of supply is considered the biggest reason why home prices and rents have soared — and are outpacing recent wage gains. But Wall Street sinking its teeth into whatever is left on the market is making the supply problem even worse.

So what can we do about this? Start by getting Wall Street out of our homes.

Democrats have introduced a bill in both houses of Congress to ban hedge funds and private equity firms from buying or owning single-family homes.

If signed into law, this could increase the supply of homes available to individual buyers — thereby making housing more affordable.

President Biden has also made it a priority to tackle the housing crisis, proposing billions in funding to increase the supply of homes and tax credits to help actual people buy them.

Now I have no delusions that any of this will be easy to get done. But these plans provide a roadmap of where the country could head — under the right leadership.

So many Americans I meet these days are cynical about the country. I understand their cynicism. But cynicism can be a self-fulfilling prophecy if it means giving up the fight.

The captains of American industry and Wall Street would like nothing better than for the rest of us to give up that fight, so they can take it all.

I say we keep fighting.

[headspace-hotel]

Going through the bills proposed in the kentucky 2024 legislative session and some of the things being proposed are

make a PFAS Working Group

require homeless shelters to provide free menstrual products (it's actually disturbing that they didn't already)

require schools to provide free menstrual products

create harm reduction centers and lower penalties for possessing controlled substances

require insurance to pay for cancer screenings (okay. low bar but okay)

abolish the death penalty (actually has a couple republican sponsors)

decriminalize cannabis

make fluoridation of water in districts optional (?????)

make coal the "state rock" of Kentucky

Prohibit children from being interrogated in a "deceptive manner" (?)

Make weight discrimination illegal

pay schools to food grown at kentucky farms to provide for school meals at low income schools (hey that's rad)

Lower the age of carrying a concealed deadly weapon from 21 to 18 (?????????????)

Require companies to give their employees earned paid sick leave

Impose restrictions on the collection of biometric data by private entities

Allow poultry to be sold at farmers' markets and at farms

pay for cancer screenings for firefighters

let pregnant incarcerated people have midwives or doula services

require that public high school curriculum include instruction on the history of racism

Remove Robert E. Lee Day, Confederate Memorial Day, and Jefferson Davis Day from the list of public holidays (WE HAVE THOSE?!!?!?!)

Retroactively expunge some cannabis convictions

"Prohibit public school districts from expanding any resources or funds on diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging or political or social activism; prohibit public school districts from engaging in diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging" (HUH?????)

require schools to give kids a lunch period of at least 30 minutes (the bar is in hell)

provide scholarships for teachers to help the teacher shortage and give teachers compensation for planning time

require schools to have defibrillators

make it so a homeless person doesn't have to pay to get a copy of their birth certificate

require a working smoke detector to be present in any house sold (...did we not already have this?)

create the Kentucky Urban Farming Youth Initiative

Require local governments to lower minimum square footage requirements for housing, and facilitate multifamily housing, manufactured housing, and "tiny homes," and require that zoning laws have a "substantial connection to protection of public safety, health, and usage of property" (This could be a good thing??)

require hiring and licensing authorities to allow people convicted of a crime an opportunity to get a job

Propose a new section of the Kentucky Constitution that guarantees the right of an individual to buy, sell, or use a certain amount of cannabis and to grow a small amount of cannabis plants, and put this on the ballot (LET'S FUCKING GOOOOOO LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE please this would be so funny)

Now let's watch how many of the good and basic common sense laws get left to die by Republicans because Republicans are ghouls

this is why it's important to vote in local elections, this is the kind of stuff that's being decided upon

[phantomrose96]

I've mentioned this thing in tags before but I've decided fuck it, it should be its own post.

I've seen this sentiment lumped into Eat the Rich posts which goes like "if you're worth more than $1 million I think you should die" and I think tumblr users need to know this is not the Eat the Rich statement they think it is.

Someone being worth $1 million doesn't mean what you think it means.

A 71-year-old widow who bought a single-family 2,000 sqft home in Somerville Massachusetts with her husband 40 years ago to raise their family in, who now lives in this home all alone because her children are grown and her husband is dead, is--without a shadow of a doubt--worth more than $1 million. Maybe even $1.5 or $2 million. And it's because of her home equity, because that's what single family homes go for these days in that area.

The 71-year-old widow may be living pension check to pension check, because her millionaire status can only be dipped into if she's removed from her home and sells it. And if it's the home she's loved for 40 years, where she simply wants to live out the rest of her time peacefully in, I wouldn't put her to the guillotine for that.

Maybe that comes off as an extreme example, like that's just an outlier of the "we hate millionaires" agenda. But I don't think it truly is. I'll scale back and tell you the median U.S. home price right now is about $430,000. And that's just median. Half of them are more expensive than that.

The statement "I think people should be able to afford to buy and own the homes they live in" is, I would desperately hope, not a radical statement to anyone on Tumblr. I think that's a pretty well-received idea. So someone who's done that, who's bought their home and worked many years to pay off the mortgage and now owns it fully, is worth close to half a million dollars on average. Many of them more than that, as many areas rapidly gentrify and drive up housing worth.

Statement 2: "I think people deserve to have a retirement fund which would comfortably support them through end of life." Too radical for anyone? I hope not. And I won't pretend to be an expert on how much retirement money is ideal. I'm sure it varies with cost of living in places. But considering this is money which, ideally, should support someone for the remaining 10-20 years of life (money which may be necessary to cover the absolutely crippling medical costs of end-of-life treatment) I'd bet it's well into the many hundreds of thousands. Even if someone was simply living off $30k/year of take home money and just making that work, then 15 years of retirement, costing $30k/year, plus maybe $50k+ of end-of-life medical costs... That's at least $500k.

Which is all to say, if you show me someone approaching retirement age who's "worth" $1 million dollars, my hope would be that their house is paid off and their retirement fund is comfortable. I'd be happy for them. I would want this for them.

Even that may not be true, though. Someone "worth" $1 million maybe owns a paid-off house which has rapidly appreciated to being worth $900k, and their $100k in retirement is something they're trying to stretch through end of life. Maybe someone worth $1 million owns a house which has ballooned to $1.1 million, and they're in fact $100k in debt.

And the fact that SO many Americans will never even meet this bar is significantly more appalling to me than the existence of people worth more than $1 million. "I own my home and can retire comfortably" is a bar we want every American to meet. I want more millionaires who are millionaires because they meet these criteria.

If Nana Somerville's house burns down tomorrow, she'll have lost everything. If a billionaire were to similarly lose $1 million of worth, he would not feel it. That's a fickle day at the stock market. That's Tuesday. That's the rich which desperately needs to be eaten.

[tim-official]

people lump NFTs / the cryptocurrency craze of 2021 in with AI as "just another thing that tech grifters are excited about," and people love posting gifs of people cheering under news stories about OpenAI hemorrhaging money. this is a naive read on the situation, i think NFTs didn't work and never could. a ponzi scheme by definition cannot last. chatGPT, DALL·E, etc are things that sometimes work, and which work marginally better every month. this is infinitely more useful than NFTs, which are useless to everyone. as a result, some people actually want them - or, at least, people with capital think people will want them, which is just as good. also unlike NFTs, there is nothing about AI that means it inherently has to take huge amounts of electricity and clean water. the environmental cost of NFTs effectively gave them value; meanwhile, there are thousands of papers published and thousands of careers laser-focused on reducing the compute cost of machine learning. this is good, but keep in mind they're doing it because they want to put machine learning crap in all the fridges they crammed WiFi into five years ago, not because they care that much if the oceans boil

The people making NFTs were no-names trying to give everyone else FOMO for a quick buck. OpenAI is pouring cement mixers of Microsoft money into trying to generate a new market, and judging by the sheer number of people who have incorporated ChatGPT into their everyday routines, they are succeeding, and attracting insane amounts of investment in the process. When you have as much capital and market share as Microsoft you are freed from the obligation to ever make anything profitable. this is late capitalism: "supply" and "demand" are completely uncoupled, society is organized around production solely based on fictions and superstitions in the heads of private equity goons anyway. this is not an "AI is evil" or "AI is good" post. just don't compare the situation to NFTs or crypto and assume it's all the work of "techbros" or whatever. it's not comparable, by orders of magnitude

[dragonflycap]

What to expect from the stock market this week

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with October in the books and heading into the election and FOMC meeting, equity markets experienced a Halloween spooking. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to consolidate in its uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) pulled back in their consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the short term move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) pulled back in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain at a neutral level, above the base established this year, and was likely to stay there at least until after the election. This might make for choppy light trading for equity markets to start next week. Their charts looked strong on the longer timeframe though. On the shorter timeframe both the $QQQ and $SPY had reset momentum measures lower and could reverse or turn bearish, likely a couple of days’ time would tell. The $IWM did not seem concerned about an election or Fed policy, churning sideways.

The week saw major movements happen following the election. It played out with Gold pulling back from its high Wednesday before a partial recovery while Crude Oil found some strength and moved higher in a choppy range. The US Dollar jumped to a 4 month high while Treasuries fell back to a 5½ month low Wednesday before a recovery. The Shanghai Composite continued the move to the upside while Emerging Markets chopped in a wide range.

Volatility crashed down to the low end of the range since August. This put a stiff breeze at the backs of equities and they started to move up Tuesday and then accelerated Wednesday through the end of the week. This resulted in the SPY and QQQ printing a new all-time highs Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and the IWM gapping up to a 1 year high. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

The SPY came into the week at the 50 day SMA on the daily chart in a pullback from the top. It had a gap left open from the end of the week. It held there on Monday and then started higher Tuesday, into the gap. It gapped up Wednesday to finish at a new all-time high and leaving an island below. It followed that up with new all-time highs Thursday and Friday. The Bollinger Bands® are open to the upside. The RSI is rising deep in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising.

The weekly chart shows a strong, long bullish candle rising from the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The 200% extension is now within view at 614 above. The RSI is rising near overbought territory in the bullish zone with the MACD drifting up and positive. There is no resistance above 599.60. Support lower sits at 585 and 580 then 574.50 and 571.50 before 565.50 and 556.50. Uptrend.

With the Presidential Election and November FOMC meeting in the rearview mirror, equity markets showed jubilation as they vaulted higher. Elsewhere look for Gold to in its uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates in a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues to move to the upside while US Treasuries consolidate in their pullback. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the move higher while Emerging Markets chop in their short term uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low and drifting lower following the election making it easier for equity markets to continue higher. Their charts look strong on both timeframes, especially the SPY and QQQ. The IWM has now joined the party, a stone’s throw away from making its first new all-time high in 2 years. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview November 8, 2024

[mostlysignssomeportents]

Bad King Richard got rich by exploiting workers at King’s Faire

Next Tuesday (Oct 31) at 10hPT, the Internet Archive is livestreaming my presentation on my recent book, The Internet Con.

King Richard's Faire is the largest renfaire in New England, and its owner, Dick Shapiro, extracts a reported $400k/day – a sum that is only possible thanks to systematic and likely illegal worker misclassification, which lets him pay performers sub-minimum wages and deny them benefits:

https://www.reddit.com/r/boston/comments/172267v/kings_faire_inc_aim%C3%A9e_bonnie_shapiro_nets_over/

Many of the performers at KRF are absolutely unpaid – these are the "villagers" – who mill about looking picturesque in exchange for free admission. They even have to buy their own turkey legs.

When the faire is rained out, all workers – "volunteers" and paid workers – are sent home without any compensation. Attendees are also sent home with rain-checks, many of which go unused (there's no refunds in the land of King Richard).

Staff work from 8am to 730pm and are paid a day-rate that works out to $6/hour. After heavy weather events, staff are ordered to show up early to do cleanup, but are not paid for their time. Staff don't get health benefits – instead, local community groups like the Elks put on fundraisers to cover the health-care costs of the performers.

Now, King Richard's worker mistreatment is not an outlier in the medieval reenactment industry. Think of how the knights at Medieval Times – who put on nightly, potentially lethal performances to generate profit for their employer – unionized in the face of exploitative labor relations. To add insult to injury, Medieval Times sued the union, arguing that its name – "Medieval Times Performers United" – was a trademark infringement:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/medieval-times-sues-union-trademark_n_63485fa5e4b0b7f89f54546b

This trademark wheeze is the latest desperate tactic to be deployed by the ruling class in the face of a surging labor movement with broad public support. Starbucks – one of the world's most notorious unionbusters – is doing the same thing to its union, Starbucks Workers United:

https://seattle.eater.com/23923490/starbucks-workers-united-union-lawsuits-copyright-trademark-israel-hamas-palestine-social-media

These moves are wildly out of step with the current of public opinion, which has swung hard for union rights in a manner not seen in generations. The outpourings of public support for striking entertainment industry workers were handwaved away as exceptions driven by the public's love of actors and writers. But that doesn't explain the strong, ongoing support for the UAW in their strike against all of the Big Three automakers:

https://pro.morningconsult.com/instant-intel/uaw-strike-public-opinion-october-2023

Bosses have always tried to smash worker power by dividing workers – by race, gender, or "skill" – but workers are workers and solidarity is the source of worker power. That's why the whole labor movement backed Equity Stripper NoHo, the first strippers' union in a generation:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/09/14/prop-22-never-again/#norms-code-laws-markets

Creative workers are part of a class of workers who suffer from "vocational awe," the sense that because your job is satisfying and/or worthy, you don't deserve to get paid for it:

https://www.inthelibrarywiththeleadpipe.org/2018/vocational-awe/

(Think of joke about the father who finds his runaway son at the circus shoveling elephant shit: "Son, come home!" "What, and quit show-business?")

Creative workers have long been encouraged to see themselves as "independent businesspeople" – LLCs with MFAs – and this mind-zap is augmented with our bosses' repeated insistence that the unions are for big burly blue-collar workers, not ethereal dreamers and pencil-pushers. Our bosses tell this story because it discourages us from forming unions and demanding fair pay and good working conditions (obviously).

Think of J Edward Keyes, the cartoon villain who serves as editorial director of Bandcamp. When the workers Keyes managed formed the Bandcamp United union, Keyes called them "white-collar tech workers…appropriating the language of the legitimately oppressed," adding "Fuuuuuck Bandcamp United":

https://www.404media.co/bandcamp-editorial-director-fuuuuuck-bandcamp-united/

Keyes's contempt notwithstanding, it's clear why Bandcamp workers need a union – after the company was flipped twice in rapid succession, its new owners, Epic Games and Songtradr, fired all its unionized workers. Keyes responded to coverage of this mass firing by calling the Pitchfork reporters who wrote about it "absloute amateur journalists."

The attempt to divide-and-rule "knowledge workers" from "industrial workers" is a transparent bid to shatter solidarity and make it easier to abuse and exploit all workers. Thankfully, workers are wise to that gambit, and understand that when all kinds of workers struggle together, they win.

Take the UAW strikes: for many years, the UAW was an objectively bad union, ruled over by a dirty-tricking clique who sold out the membership. It's normal to blame workers for bad leaders, but the UAW old guard had rigged union elections, making sure that they would stay in charge. It's not workers that like corrupt unions – it's bosses.

Before the UAW could fight back against their bosses, they had to fight back their bosses' minions in the upper ranks of their own union. That's where the the Harvard Grad Students' Union comes in. After years of worsening exploitation and working conditions, the Harvard Grad Students organized under the UAW, then joined forces with reformers in the union to oust the corrupt leadership.

During the leadership struggle, Harvard Grad Students helped their comrades from the auto-sector master the union's baroque constitution, so when the old guard tried to prevent motions from reaching the floor, the grad students were able to cite chapter and verse back at them. In the end, grad students and auto-workers together won the victory that paved the way for the strikes:

https://theintercept.com/2023/04/07/deconstructed-union-dhl-teamsters-uaw/

A strong, unified labor movement is necessary if America is to save itself from inequality, racism, the climate emergency – the whole polycrisis. The idea that creative workers aren't workers is bullshit – and so is the lie that all workers are uncreative. The "Worker As Futurist" project recruits Amazon drivers and warehouse writers to write science fiction about a future without Amazon:

https://jacobin.com/2023/09/amazon-workers-sci-fi-writing-bezos-imagination-speculative-future

They call this a "belief that rank-and-file workers, whose bodies and minds are exploited by capital, might have access to some knowledge about capitalism that is beyond even the most brilliant theorist or analyst of capitalism."

All workers can and should tell their own story. Doing so isn't just a way to change the narrative – it's also a way to change policy. The new merger guidelines from the FTC and DOJ Antitrust Division explicitly incorporate labor-market effects into antitrust policy. As Brian Callaci and Sandeep Vaheesan write for The Sling, the testimony of workers and unions can help produce the evidentiary basis for blocking the mergers that lead to monopolies:

https://www.thesling.org/workers-are-an-untapped-resource-for-antitrust-enforcers/

The rising labor movement is a force for profound change in every part of our economy and politics. Workers can be our knights in shining armor.

https://www.thesling.org/workers-are-an-untapped-resource-for-antitrust-enforcers/

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/10/25/huzzah/#bad-king-richard

[brf-rumortrackinganon]

I think Meghan’s frustrated because her level has some pretty popular people already. It’s crowded. To be honest I think the Gaines have a large % followed by a few other target brands. She’d rather be a target brand not a tjmaxx because tjmaxx buys left over inventory that doesn’t sell. Target is still affordable and I think those in her circle are far more willingly to say they go to target than Walmart to tjmaxx. That’s what bothers her.

I also don’t think she was prepared to launch when she did. It was a quick rash reaction that felt more like turning lover an “I’m open for business sign” than anything else. Her ego got the best of her .

Yep, that's the other pitfall of being so focused on immediate gratification: you have beer goggles on. You don't see your competitors for who they really are - you only see what they have that you don't or their flaws that you think you can do better.

If Meghan really cared about Roop, she'd have paid attention to the market research that her partners (and yes, she has partners, even if no one will admit it) and WME did. That market research would have told her exactly who her competitors are, that she has one shot to get this right, and precisely what shot to take and when to take it.

And let's be honest. Her competitors aren't Gwyneth Paltrow (Goop), Reese Witherspoon (Kohls), and Martha Stewart (Macys, Penneys, and Amazon). They aren't even the Gaines/Magnolia (Target), Pioneer Woman (Walmart), and Rae Dunn (TJ Maxx/HomeGoods).

Her competitors are all the other socialites out there launching their own wellness and lifestyle brands. Bravolebrities. Tiktokers. Instagram influencers. People who have such a niche fanbase from 5 minutes in the spotlight with print-on-demand merch. In effect, personality-driven brands that lack substance.

And those brands don't usually do well, because they always overshoot their market and target the wrong audience. There's nothing wrong with being a TJX brand or a department store brand or a "Middle America" brand. Plenty of people have made really good fortunes and livings from it, but only because they were realistic and clear about their expectations and knew it would take time to get the empire they wanted.

And since anon mentioned The Gaines, I have a feeling that's who Meghan intends to come after. They're in Texas (where the Sussexes have been spending time). Tall, leggy, thick-bouncy-dark brown/black hair-for-days, biracial homemaker guru wife with a doofus goofy ginger husband. Their brand (Magnolia Home) is a kind of rustic, vintage, comfort memory that ARO/Roop's video mimicked. They've got that kind of ordinary everyday Americanness that (kind of) competes with William and Kate's kind of ordinary everyday Britishness that Meghan couldn't break.

But here's the thing about Chip and Joanna. They didn't just pop up out of nowhere. I know it feels like they did, but they didn't. They put 10 years of blood and sweat equity into the Waco (Texas) home construction and design world before HGTV even knew that they existed. What has Meghan done that's even comparable? Sure, she got her own doofus ginger but that's it. That's where the comparisons end. And honestly there's no comparison between Chip and Harry either, because Chip comes out ahead by a million points by just being able to replace his own burnt-out lightbulb.

[thatbadadvice]

Help! My Girlfriend Bought Me A Million Dollar House And Raised My Kids And All I Got Was This Million Dollar House And Someone To Raise My Kids, When Is It Finally Going To Be My Turn To Get A Break??????

Pay Dirt, Slate, 17 April 2023:

Dear Pay Dirt, My longterm girlfriend and I disagree about whether a $30,000 inheritance left to her by her great-aunt should be “her” money or “our” money. She wants to spend a large part (almost a third!) of it on expensive supplies for her hobby. I think that we should save most of it and use some of it on a vacation since we both find traveling extremely romantic. My argument is: 1) I don’t care about her hobby, but we’ll both enjoy a trip abroad; 2) we’ve lived on only my (admittedly low, since it’s academia) income for over a decade, so according to her own rule about entitlement to “her” windfall, shouldn’t she technically have been entitled to none of my wages all these years? Her argument is: 1) she had to put aside her hobby for many years to raise our children (it’s not a safe art form for young kids to be around) and yearns to return to it; 2) she paid entirely in cash for our $950k house at the beginning of our partnership (though my income pays the property taxes and maintenance costs), therefore she alleges that we haven’t actually been living on solely my income because I’ve been saving on rent all these years. I feel resentful of the double standard about control over finances and hurt that she would rather prioritize her own joy over our shared joy. She feels impatient to reconnect with her hobby and hurt that her contributions to our lifestyle are unseen. How do we reconcile our different viewpoints? How should the money be allocated? Is there something that we’re missing? —I’m About to Glass(Blow) a Fuse

Dear About to (Glass)Blow a Fuse,

I hope you don't mind that I corrected your very clever parenthetical sign-off! You're understandably dealing with a lot of hurt right now at the hands of the cruel and self-absorbed girlfriend who bought you a million-dollar home and abandoned her beloved hobby to raise your children, so I totally get why a brilliant, overworked, and under-appreciated academic genius such as yourself would fuck up something so incredibly simple and obvious, you poor thing. Really speaks to the distress you're in as the victim of this woman's sordid scheme to steal every ounce of joy from your life by experiencing some of her own after decades of managing your household for you for free.

Great relationships are built on the exactly equal division of all resources, and it sounds like your girlfriend has trouble grasping this because she seems to believe that the home you live in and the time she has invested raising your children for you have value, when of course they do not. The only thing that has value in this world is cash money, which is why we call it money. If parenting were valuable, you'd be able to trade it on the stock market! And what was your girlfriend going to do, not live in a house? These are things she'd have done with her life anyway, and they don't get to count toward her contribution to the household just because she did them for and with you instead of expressly and specifically pursuing her art. Whereas who knows what you could have done with your life if you hadn't been locked into a free house and a partner dedicating herself full-time to keeping your children alive for you?

Now, after all these years of being nothing but a worthless freeloader whom you support out of the generous goodness of your kind heart, your girlfriend has finally acquired something of value, and she wants to keep an entire third of it for herself? To do something that doesn't directly benefit, enrich, or entertain you personally? That's not equity, and it's certainly no way to repay you for periodically writing checks to the plumber. Isn't it about time you finally got something out of all of this for your trouble?

What benefit is there for you in having a partner who enjoys the sweet satisfaction of creative fulfillment after years of yearning to express herself? What kind of weirdo wants their girlfriend to have her own interests? And what kind of ungrateful hussy doesn't jump to spend thousands of her own money on a romantic vacation with someone who actively resents even entertaining the possibility of the idea of her doing something that makes her artistic spirit sing?

The balance sheet of this relationship is indeed all out of whack, and it's too bad that it's taken this long for your girlfriend to see just how uneven your bargain has been. If we're going to get technical about what has "value" in a relationship — and it does seem like your girlfriend is an inveterate bean-counter in the worst way around this stuff — the best way to reconcile your mutual account, as it were, is to present your girlfriend with an itemized bill for all the services you have provided her over the years, such as allowing her to buy you a home, permitting her to forego a wage-earning career, and gifting her with the opportunity to abandon her favorite hobby. That should pretty swiftly put everything you're "missing" in stark relief, and solve the question of how she should allocate her money in the future.

[phoenixyfriend]

Trying to figure out if there are any actual, like, ethics to the stock market. Going public sounds unremarkable, just gaining capital for development in exchange for giving investors some voting power in operations and management.

But it completely changes the business model and general goals. Being beholden to shareholders ensures that "a successful business" is defined less by its ability to be stable and change with the times without faltering and growing to reasonably fill its niche, and rather by its ability to turn higher and higher profits in order to ensure greater dividends, a greater return on investment, to the shareholders, focusing on the short term investments rather than long-term stability. Companies that can't fulfill that role, staying stable or being unable to change with the times due to shareholder demands, get caught in stock gambits like shortselling (e.g. the GameStop incident) and driven out of business.

In theory, a company being led by a bunch of people instead of by a single person or family should make it less prone to abuses, but when the only people that can afford enough stock to have an impact on operations are people of extraordinary wealth...

Companies end up pursuing eternal growth even when it isn't feasible, suborning their own original goals and intentions in the name of turning ever-greater profits for their shareholders.

But then again, privately-owned means vulnerability to private equity, which probably makes them more likely to be destroyed by 'grow your wealth' folks...

(This isn't entirely for a recent Ko-Fi Prompt, but it's a big factor. I'm just trying to get my thoughts on the stock market in order before I dive into the more specific question I was given. My focus in university was primarily in international business/communications and marketing, rather than stock and equity, and it's been a while since I put deep thought into how the stock market functions and whether that function is inherently structured in a way that supports unethical action, or just one of many systems that wealthy people have taken advantage of.)

Does anyone here with experience or education in stocks and finance have thoughts to share?

I'm focusing on the ethics and morality of the stock market and its impacts on employees, the environment, and the public, not questions of 'do shareholders deserve to ask for a return.'

No libertarian takes on this, please, I'm trying to gather actual information, with a basis in the social contract, not USAmerican individualism.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Thanks Derek Plummer

* * * *

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

October 14, 2024

Heather Cox Richardson

Oct 15, 2024

As the two presidential campaigns position themselves for the final sprint to the election on November 5, the difference between them is dramatic. 

Trump is hunkering down behind what has always appeared to be a plan not to attract voters but instead to create chaos on Election Day. Creating confusion around the election could enable his loyalists to put in place the plan the Trump team concocted in 2020 to throw the election into the House of Representatives or get it before the Supreme Court, stacked as it is with Trump loyalists. 

A central piece of that plan appears to be to rile up his supporters to violence, and a few of them have been delivering. News broke yesterday that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) had advised federal emergency workers to evacuate Rutherford County, North Carolina, which was hit hard by Hurricane Helene, because of concerns about their safety after Trump and MAGA Republicans spread the false rumor that federal agents are forcing people off their land to start lithium mining projects. The alert came after the U.S. Forest Service sent an email to federal responders saying that National Guard troops had encountered armed militia saying they were “hunting FEMA.” FEMA officials will no longer go door-to-door with disaster assistance, but instead will stay in fixed locations. 

A man has been arrested and charged with threatening FEMA workers with an assault rifle. He was released on a $10,000 bond.

To the extent Trump or his running mate Ohio senator J.D. Vance talks about them, their policies are promises to repair what they insist is the damage caused by President Joe Biden (although the stock market hit record highs again today), or threats that reinforce an authoritarian Christian nationalist worldview. Today, Bill Barrow of the Associated Press explored the extensive overlap of Project 2025 from the Heritage Foundation and other right-wing groups and the plans that Trump and Vance have set out. 

Both promise to cut taxes for the wealthy, but Project 2025 has more detail about how. Both plan to cut off immigration and to fire federal workers, replacing them with loyalists. Both say the president can decide not to use the money Congress has appropriated (in 2019, Trump refused to disburse the money Congress had appropriated for Ukraine until Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to smear Trump’s chief Democratic rival for the presidency, Joe Biden). Both call for slashing government regulations and getting rid of diversity, equity, and inclusion programs as well as protections for LGBTQ+ individuals and programs addressing climate change. 

But perhaps most revealing of both Trump’s ideology and his plan for the election was his statement to Fox News Channel host Maria Bartiromo on Sunday that he would like to use the military against what he called “the enemy from within…radical left lunatics" to guard the election. While this is a threat to use the power of the government against his political opponents if he is elected—he mentioned California representative and Senate candidate Adam Schiff by name—it also seems likely his loyalists will hear this as a call for violence at election sites. 

Trump’s statement has not gone unnoticed. 

Tonight, CNN’s The Lead with Jake Tapper posted a dictionary definition of the word “fascism”: “A populist political philosophy, movement…that exalts nation and often race above the individual, that is associated with a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, and that is characterized by severe economic and social regimentation and by forcible suppression of opposition.” 

On the show, Tapper pressed Republican Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin to comment on Trump’s statement that as commander-in-chief, he would use the military against political opposition. When Youngkin denied that Trump had said any such thing, Tapper replied: “I’m literally reading his quotes to you.” Youngkin’s willingness to deny what was right in front of him did not exactly quell talk of fascism, since in his dystopian novel 1984 about authoritarianism, George Orwell famously wrote: “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”

If Trump is hunkering down, Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Minnesota governor Tim Walz are still pushing ahead, pressing Trump on both his personal weakness and his now open embrace of fascism. Harris’s advisor Ian Sams went on the Fox News Channel today to note that it’s been a month since Trump “did a mainstream media interview, and we got to wonder why. We called this weekend for him to release his medical records…. Donald Trump’s team, I heard him on your air last hour insisting that everything is okay and that…there’s nothing to see here. And your anchor rightly asked, ‘Well, if that’s true, why not just put them out?’” 

At 1:12 this morning, Trump posted on his social media site: “I believe it is very important that Kamala Harris pass a test on Cognitive Stamina and Agility. Her actions have led many to believe that there could be something very wrong with her.” Sams hit that as well, noting that in the middle of the night, Trump felt obliged to write about Harris and a cognitive test “[a]s he refuses to release his medical records, sit with 60 Minutes, or debate her again—instead retreating solely to rambling rallies where he’s increasingly making no sense[.] Is he okay?” 

In Erie, Pennsylvania, today, Harris outlined how her proposals for an “opportunity economy” will help Black men, calling for business loans for entrepreneurs, more apprenticeships, rules for cryptocurrency exchanges, and study of diseases that disproportionately affect Black men. 

She also continues her outreach to Republicans. Today, former Trump friend and talk show host Geraldo Rivera endorsed her. So did former Wisconsin Republican state senate majority leader Dale Schultz. “I tell people, ‘Look, I didn’t leave the party. The party left me,’” he said. “This is a critically important race, and…Donald Trump should never be allowed in the Oval Office again.”

Today Harris’s campaign announced she will be sitting down with Fox News Channel reporter Bret Baier for an interview on Wednesday from the battleground state of Pennsylvania. The Fox News Channel is scheduled to tape a town hall with Trump in front of an audience of women on Tuesday. It is supposed to air on Wednesday morning, while the Harris interview will air Wednesday night.  

At a rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, tonight, Harris reiterated Trump’s refusal to talk to any but the right-wing media and recalled his promise to terminate the Constitution. And then she used Trump’s own words against him, playing a video montage of Trump’s calls for violence, his threats against “the enemy within,” and his call for using the military against his political opponents. 

“You heard his words, coming from him,” she told the audience. “[H]e considers anyone who doesn’t support him or who will not bend to his will an enemy of our country…. He’s saying that he would use the military to go after them…. And we know who he would target because he has attacked them before. Journalists whose stories he doesn’t like. Election officials who refuse to cheat by…finding extra votes for him. Judges who insist on following the law instead of bending to his will. This is among the reasons I believe so strongly that a second Trump term would be a huge risk for America, and dangerous…. Donald Trump is increasingly unstable and unhinged. And he is out for unchecked power, that’s what he’s looking for.”

In Oaks, Pennsylvania, tonight, Trump was supposed to take questions from preselected attendees at a town hall with South Dakota governor Kristi Noem. He did, at first, although his answers were all over the place and he urged people to vote on January 5. But then, in the hot and crowded space, two people needed medical attention. Slurring, Trump then said: “Let’s not do any more questions. Let’s just listen to music. Let’s make it into a music. Who the hell wants to hear questions, right?” And then he stood on stage and swayed for 39 minutes of songs from his personal playlist before seeming to recall that he was supposed to be talking about the election, which he suddenly told the confused crowd was “the most important election in the history of our country” before turning back to the music.

Rob Crilly of the U.K.’s The Daily Mail wrote: “I was at Trump's golden escalator launch, flew out of Washington with him in 2020 and have probably been to 100 rallies, give or take. Have never seen anything like tonight.” The headline over Marianne LeVine’s Washington Post story about the event read: “Trump sways and bops to music for 39 minutes in bizarre town-hall episode.

“The scene comes as Vice President Kamala Harris has called Trump, 78, unstable and called into question his mental acuity.”

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[blueikeproductions]

@nukeli Ok so “DEI” refers to Diversity Equity & Inclusion, a relatively new initiative that was designed to show off minorities, women, and people of color more.

Now on the surface, that’s not a bad thing, we’ve had plenty of diverse shows before like Diff’rent Strokes, Cyborg 009, Family Matters, Everybody Hates Chris, Kim Possible, My Life As A Teenage Robot, The Golden Girls, The Magic School Bus, and more.

This includes people behind the scenes like actors, writers and directors. Stuff we’ve had before too.

But the modern version of it, via DEI, has evolved into let’s just trash white people, and to quote the South Park line grifters use annoyingly as their rallying cry “Put a chick in it, make her lame & gay!”

So we’ve gotten stuff like Tee-La from He-Man being the stereotypical butch lesbian with a side shave haircut who just seems to hate everyone now and feels personally attacked, pushing Adam/He-Man aside to be the hero, and similarly Skeletor being pushed side in favor of making a similarly stereotyped butch lesbian Evil-Lyn the main villain. A big complaint among other things was how Tee-La was just incredibly unlikable and hard to root for, along with giving her and Evil-Lyn The Power in a manner that doesn’t make sense for their previously established characters in the 80’s and 2000’s cartoons. Thankfully the sequel show to MOTU: R corrected these problems, bringing Adam/He-Man & Tee-La on equal footing like they always were, and making Tee-La far more likable. Also Tee-La inheriting The Power from her mother The Sorceress, is used much better here and it makes more sense how she uses it here, vs the previous coddled, stereotype “I am woman hear me roar” direction they tried.

DEI has also poorly affected other things, like little people not getting jobs in the Snow White reboot movie to play the Dwarves, both because it was seen as offensive, and also Peter Dinklage running his mouth (somewhat justifiably in areas) and ruining it for everyone. Cleveland Brown in Family Guy being recast because his original voice actor was white being replaced with a black actor who impersonates the voice rather than doing his own thing with it, and DEI informing a new form of segregation, as only black actors can be black characters, whites can only be whites, Asians Asians, and etc in animation. Never mind popular black actors like Kevin Micheal Richardson and Phil LaMarr have done non black characters before with LaMarr famously being Samurai Jack, an Asian character. Some Asian actors who were for the casting changes realized too late it affected what they could do as it meant they can’t do anything other than Asian characters when they wanted to read for a non Asian human character. The point of voice acting is everyone can be anything like how many male characters are voiced by women like Tommy Pickles or Timmy Turner or how some female characters are voiced by men like Linda Belcher.

DEI also tends to over focus on how a show has only diverse actors and characters, and ergo EarthSpark’s marketing was going all in on how it had black characters, putting them as top billing over the Autobots on toy packaging. It also tended to favor its female cast, making the (non Megatron) men look incompetent. Like how GHOST is almost exclusively female, with the few male members being complete idiots. (To be fair, Schloder is supposed to be more of an Inspector Clouseau type but still.)

The more egregious instances to me is despite emphasizing kali, they don’t do anything with it that would make it look cool to all kids watching. Like Twitch using it to fight a Decepticon, outwitting him or her, using a skill she inherited from her adopted human father makes sense! As well as emphasizing the Terrans being Earth natives and learning its culture. Instead it’s just left hanging there, and I feel like someone internally said it’d be cultural appropriation if Twitch or Nightshade used it.

The production notes also intended Robbie to be the leader, something the second season went back to, but the first season emphasized Mo way more leaving Robbie little to do, to the point when he was practically dead, his parents instead showered Mo with affection for her problems when he was laying right next to them barely holding on.

Also Nightshade’s everything, causing the controversy that saw more casuals and parents reject the show hard. Nightshade is another example of DEI, over focusing on their being nonbinary as their sole character trait, despite their geeky, scientific side being just as important. The second season again corrects this, focusing entirely on their personality more and properly showing off their gift of science. It was too little too late though.

Really when you look back on it, the first season, despite its decent ideas, emphasized a lot of the DEI stuff casual audiences hate, with the second season going back to a traditional Autobots vs Decepticons conflict, and using more of the earlier ideas in the production bible. I still believe the more intriguing Megatron steals the Emberstone plot was repurposed into Starscream wanting it, because someone clearly didn’t want Megatron to relapse into being evil again.

This also feeds into another modern problem of not really having true villains anymore, and how due to DEI, most of the villains we get are only entitled white people to antagonize the people of color or female heroes (now we HAVE had this before off and on but not to this extent, and even then it was handled organically and made sense), vs stuff like the modern Invincible adult cartoon having a diverse villain cast like its comics did. A lot of modern stuff similarly tries to paint the Decepticons as being the true heroes despite the writing and the audience not supporting it. It’s why the Micheal Bay films are still popular because despite making the Autobots into more violent 80’s-90’s action heroes, they’re still defending the Earth and humanity from the monstrous Decepticons who intend to blow it up to obtain the trendy MacGuffin of the day. As for the cop/military stuff, one, it makes sense that the Autobots would ally themselves with the Earth military to help humans have a fighting chance, and two it’s not going away, because of the movies shifting to incorporating GI Joe as the human military force over NEST/Sector 7. Even Noah was ex military via RotB. The only bad cop was Barricade, a Decepticon, and any bad faith humans in military power were usually proven wrong for their hubris in thinking they didn’t need the Autobots.

Even TFONE has largely returned to a more simple black and white approach in having proper heroic characters in Orion’s miners turned Autobots, and properly evil villains in the Quints, Sentinel, Airachnid, and Starscream. Even D-16 makes sense as being evil again as he let his frustrations and anger at Sentinel, who he looked up to, consume him in a more believable way than Prime and Cyberverse making it look like he was just throwing a tantrum for 4 million years because Optimus got what he wanted: control.

So ultimately diversity is still a good thing, but the modern approach to it by embittered people who thought they knew better has instead pushed us back a few decades when things were largely ok in terms of diversity and making natural strides in improving.

Family Matters and Static Shock were among my favorite shows growing up, but now, because of current trends, I can’t look at characters like Liko from HZ or Hazel from New Wish without thinking they were the result of DEI and not an organic desire of trying out something else. And that’s not at all how it should be thought of.

[mariacallous]

A US judge has cleared the way for billions of dollars to be refunded to former customers of bankrupt crypto exchange FTX.

At a court hearing in Wilmington, Delaware, on Monday, judge John Dorsey gave final approval to FTX’s reorganization plan, the terms of which had previously been put to creditors and voted through by a landslide.

“I think this is a model case for how to deal with a very complex Chapter 11 proceeding,” said Dorsey. “I applaud everyone involved in the negotiation process.”

FTX filed for bankruptcy in November 2022 after running out of funds to process customer withdrawals. Billions of dollars’ worth of FTX customer deposits were missing. The money, a jury later found, had been swept into a sibling company and spent on high-risk trading, venture bets, debt repayments, personal loans, political donations, luxury real estate, and other illegitimate dealings.

A year later, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted of multiple counts of fraud and conspiracy, then sentenced to 25 years in prison. In September, coconspirator Caroline Ellison received a two-year prison term after testifying against Bankman-Fried at trial.

First proposed in May, the FTX bankruptcy plan charts a path to a full refund, plus interest, for former FTX customers—a level of recovery rarely seen in bankruptcies. “Generally, anything over 100 cents on the dollar is close to miraculous,” says Yesha Yadav, associate dean and a bankruptcy specialist at Vanderbilt University Law School. “What tends to happen is that unsecured creditors get cents on the dollar, if they’re lucky. The expectation is that it is a process of scarcity.”

In this case, though, the administrators of the FTX estate were able to recover billions of dollars by liquidating investments made by the exchange’s venture capital arm, FTX Ventures, and its sister company, Alameda Research, along with other assets. A rise in the price of cryptocurrencies in the period since FTX filed for bankruptcy, meanwhile, raised the value of the coins left in exchange coffers.

Under the plan, government bodies in the United States—including the Internal Revenue Service and the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission—have agreed to suspend high-value claims against FTX until creditors had been repaid (although the IRS will receive a $200 million upfront payment as part of the settlement).

Even FTX equity holders, typically the last to be repaid in a bankruptcy, stand to make back a portion of their initial investment—a maximum of $230 million between them—paid for using funds recovered by the Department of Justice through the prosecution of FTX insiders.

But despite the abnormally high expected recovery, some creditors believe they are still getting a raw deal by virtue of the way their claims have been valued.

Many customers held crypto assets like bitcoin on the FTX platform, but through a process called dollarization common to bankruptcies, their claims have instead been assigned a dollar value based on the price of those assets on the date of the bankruptcy filing. When FTX fell, the crypto market was in the doldrums, but it has since lurched to new all-time highs, meaning some customer claims would be far more valuable if the refund were mapped to the present value of crypto assets. Therefore, though dollarization is proper under the bankruptcy code, “saying [the return] is over 100 percent is just wrong,” says Yadav. “For the average person, it’s very far from that.”

Among the parties that stand to gain the most from the approval of the plan, meanwhile, are investment firms that spent millions of dollars purchasing claims from people with assets stuck in FTX, who either preferred to take a haircut and reinvest the money or had urgent need of the funds. Those claims were typically purchased at a cut-price rate before a handsome recovery was considered likely—some for less than 10 cents on the dollar—but are now worth multiples of that.

“In terms of internal rate of return—holy shit. It’s the best trade I’ve seen in my lifetime,” says Thomas Braziel, cofounder of 507 Capital, an investment firm that specializes in buying up bankruptcy claims and took a large position in FTX, and 117 Partners, which brokers claim sales. (In July, Braziel was ordered by a Delaware court to repay $1.9 million that he misappropriated as receiver of failed financial services company Fund.com to make investments and luxury purchases.)

In August, a number of former FTX customers filed formal objections to the plan with the bankruptcy court. The customers objected, variously, to the legal immunity provided under the plan to those that have administered the bankruptcy, the likelihood that cash payments would trigger costly taxable events for creditors, and other elements of the plan. “I felt vindicated when Bankman-Fried went to jail—and I believed that would flow through to bankruptcy court,” says Sunil Kavuri, one FTX customer to cosign an objection. “I’ve been unpleasantly surprised.”

In the course of the five-hour hearing, Brian Glueckstein, an attorney at law firm Sullivan & Cromwell and counsel to FTX, responded to each objection in turn. “There is no evidence on the record that somehow these debtors are not providing maximum value—none,” said Glueckstein.

In providing his approval, the judge rejected the pending objections and cleared the way for FTX administrators to begin to execute the plan.

It remains possible to lodge an appeal against the plan after its confirmation in limited circumstances. Logistical complications may also delay repayments to creditors, expected to begin late this year at the earliest. But few realistic options now remain for parties hoping to change the course of the FTX bankruptcy.

The confirmation hearing “is the last chance in a practical sense for changes to be made,” says Yadav. “This is the defining day.”

[dragonflycap]

What to expect from the stock market this week

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with just one full week of trading to go ahead of the election and November FOMC meeting, equity markets were set to go into the week after one of choppy trading. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to move to the upside while US Treasuries ($TLT) pulled back in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the short term move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidated in their young uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the $QQQ and $SPY had reset on momentum measures as they moved sideways. The $IWM continued to disappoint with another sputtered break out reversing.

The week played out with Gold ripping to a new all-time high before profit taking left it little changed on the week while Crude Oil gapped down Monday and slowly recovered through Friday. The US Dollar met resistance and consolidated at the late July high while Treasuries held in a tight range consolidating the pullback. The Shanghai Composite shifted to consolidating the move higher while Emerging Markets continued to drift lower threatening the short term uptrend.

Volatility ticked up to touch recent resistance and held. This put pressure on equities midweek and they pulled back Wednesday and Thursday before a bounce Friday. This resulted in the SPY breaking its 5 month winning streak in October and the QQQ falling just short of retesting the all-time high. The IWM continued in its own world moving mostly sideways. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week consolidating near the all-time high and above the 20 day SMA on the daily chart. It continued to hold there in a tight trading range through Wednesday. Thursday saw it gap down through the 20 day SMA and run to the 50 day SMA and lower end of the Bollinger Bands®. This was the 1st touch of the 50 day SMA in 6 weeks. It held there with an inside day Friday, a possible bottom signal. The RSI also pulled back, bouncing at the September low, and remaining in the bullish zone. The MACD is dropping but positive.

The weekly chart shows a second down week with a longer body candle. It remains well above the 20 week SMA though in healthy territory. The RSI on this timeframe is pulling back in the bullish zone with the MACD looking to cross down and positive. There is support lower at 565.50 and 556.50 then 549.50 and 545.50 before 542. Resistance higher is at 571.50 and 574.50 then 580 and 585. Pause in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With October in the books and heading into the election and FOMC meeting, equity markets experienced a Halloween spooking. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index looks to consolidate in its uptrend while US Treasuries pullback in their consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term move higher while Emerging Markets pullback in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain at a neutral level, above the base established this year, likely at least until after the election. This could make for choppy light trading for equity markets to start next week. Their charts look strong on the longer timeframe though. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY have reset momentum measures lower and could reverse or turn bearish, likely a couple of days’ time will tell. The IWM does not seem concerned about an election or Fed policy churning sideways. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview November 1, 2024

[mostlysignssomeportents]

Hollywood is the single best example of mature labor power in America

This afternoon (May 6), I’ll be in Berkeley at the Bay Area Bookfest for a 3:30PM event with Glynn Washington for my book Red Team Blues; tomorrow (May 7), it’s an 11AM event with Wendy Liu for my book Chokepoint Capitalism.

Weds (May 10), I’m in Vancouver for a keynote at the Open Source Summit and a book event at Heritage Hall and Thu (May 11), I’m in Calgary for Wordfest.

The Writers Guild is on strike. Hollywood is closed for business. The union’s bargaining documents reveal a cartel of studios that refused to negotiate on a single position. This could go on for a long-ass time:

https://www.wga.org/uploadedfiles/members/member_info/contract-2023/WGA_proposals.pdf

If you’d like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here’s a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/05/06/people-are-not-disposable/#union-strong

The writers are up for it. A lot of people are saying this is the first writers’ strike since 2007/8, but that’s not quite right. That was the last time the writers went on strike against the studios, but in 2019, the writers struck against their own talent agents — within the space of a week, all 7,000 writers in Hollywood fired their agents. They struck against the agencies for 22 months.

https://deadline.com/2023/04/hollywood-strike-writers-guild-studios-talent-agencies-1235333516/

The agencies had consolidated down to four major firms, two backed by private equity who loaded them up with debt that could only be repaid if the agencies figured out how to vastly increase their profits. They did so, by unilaterally switching the way they did business with their clients. Instead of taking a 10% commission on the creative wages they bargained for, the agencies started to take “packaging fees” from the studios for putting together a writer, director, stars, etc. These fees came out of the same budget that the talent got paid from, so the higher the fee was, the less the talent made. Soon, some showrunners were discovering that they were getting 10% and their agents were getting 90%!

The agencies weren’t done, either: they were building their own studios, and planning to negotiate with themselves on behalf of their clients. The writers said fuck this shit. They issued a code of conduct ordering the agencies to knock all that shit off. The agencies swore they’d never do it. Why should they? Every job these writers had ever done came through an agency, and the agencies were staffed with the toughest, most obnoxious negotiators on the planet.

They were sure the writers would cave. After all, the top tier of writers had been handled with kid gloves by the agencies and not ripped off to the same extent as their jobbing, workaday peers. They’d break solidarity and the union would collapse, right?

Wrong. Twenty-two months later, every one of the agencies caved on every single point. Bam. Union strong.

(Want to learn more? Check out Chokepoint Capitalism, Rebecca Giblin’s and my book about creative labor markets:)

http://chokepointcapitalism.com

Now the writers are back on strike and it’s triggered a predictable torrent of anti-worker nonsense (“striking writers will lead to public indifference to torture!) (no, really) (ugh):

https://www.readtpa.com/p/on-the-tv-writers-strike-dont-fall

One common theme in these bad takes is that writers aren’t real workers, like, you know, coal miners or Starbucks baristas. They’re coddled intellectuals, and haven’t the intelligentsia been indifferent to proletarian struggle since, you know, time immemorial?

This is wrong in every conceivable way. For starters, it’s ahistorical. Lord Byron and innumerable other toffs and poets and such were right there with the Luddites, demanding labor justice during the Industrial Revolution, as Brian Merchant writes in his outstanding, forthcoming history of the Luddites, Blood in the Machine:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/03/20/love-the-machine/#hate-the-factory

But you don’t have to look back to the stocking frame to find this kind of solidarity. As Hamilton Nolan writes in his newsletter, “Hollywood is the single best example of mature labor power in America”:

https://www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/the-coral-reef-of-humanity-encircling

The entire Hollywood workforce, from grips to carpenters, costumers to plumbers, teamsters to medics, is unionized. That includes writers and actors (I’m a member of IATSE Local 839, AKA The Animation Guild). I live in Burbank, the entertainment industry’s company town (fun fact! The “Hollywood” studios are largely over the city line, in Burbank). Walk down Burbank Boulevard, Magnolia Boulevard, or any of the other major roads, and you’ll pass many union halls.

Burbank is a prosperous place. That’s thanks, in part, to the studios, whose entertainment products are very profitable. But working in a profitable industry is not, in and of itself, a guarantee that you will get a share of those profits. Some of the most profitable industries in the world — e-commerce, fast food, logistics — have the lowest paid workforces.

Burbank is prosperous because the unions made sure that everyone — the grips, the costumers, the animators, the actors, the writers, the teamsters and the pipefitters — gets a decent wage, decent health care and a decent retirement. My pal the set-dresser who worked crazy hours shlepping furniture around sitcom sets for decades? All that work did bad stuff to his joints, which meant that he needed a hip replacement in his forties — which was 100% covered, including his sick leave while he recovered. He was able to take early retirement in his late fifties, with a solid pension, with his health in excellent shape and many years of happiness with his partner stretching before him.

That’s what unions get you: a good job that might be hard at times, and the costs of your work are borne by the employer who profits from your labor. As Nolan writes, the point of unions is to “make sure that people! Are! Not! Disposable!”

Unions deliver the American dream. As Pete Seeger sang in “Talking Union Blues”:

Now, if you want higher wages let me tell you what to do You got to talk to the workers in the shop with you You got to build you a union, got to make it strong But if you all stick together, boys, it won’t be long You get shorter hours, better working conditions Vacations with pay. Take your kids to the seashore

http://www.protestsonglyrics.net/Labor_Union_Songs/Talking-Union.phtml

We tend to focus on wages in union discussions, but unions aren’t merely about getting better pay, it’s about making better jobs. When LA teachers went out on strike in 2019, wages weren’t at the top of their list — they bargained for greenspace for every school, replacing rotting portables with permanent buildings, ending ICE entrapment of parents at the school gates, social workers and counselors for schools…and wages.

I really like how Nolan puts this. The way that the studios make money has changed: streaming is clobbering ad-supported TV and movie theater tickets. The studios are adapting. The workers want to adapt, too. The studios would rather “treat[] their work force as a disposable natural resource to be mined, used up, and then abandoned, as business dictates.”

A union gives workers “the same ability to adapt to changing industries that companies already have.” The studios want to leave workers behind. Unions give workers the collective power to say, “No. You’re taking us with you.”

Union workers are wealthier than their non-union counterparts, but that’s not just because of higher wages. As Nolan writes, “Unions make sure that the people get to adapt to changing industries, and not just the investors and the business owners.”

[Union workers] have a far greater ability to build coherent, long-term careers, as opposed to a constant treadmill of unstable short-term gigs. In non-union industries, businesses can just act like ships cutting through a desperate sea of workers, scooping up whoever they want and then tossing them overboard as soon as it’s convenient. In a union industry, though, the companies are forced to deal with the labor force as an equal. The workers have their own damn boat.

Advocates for market capitalism insist that market forces increase prosperity for everyone. They say that, in the end, having corporations serve their shareholders results in corporations serving everyone.

But a comparison of unionized and nonunionized industries reveals the hollowness of that prospect. Hollywood is wildly profitable and it pays every kind of worker well. That’s because workers have solidarity across sectors and trades. Striking writers like jonrog1 are calling on supporters to donate to the Entertainment Community Fund:

https://twitter.com/jonrog1/status/1654168529728307204

The Entertainment Community Fund supports everyone else who is affected by the work-stoppage, all the other creative and craft trades whose work has been halted by the writers’ struggle. If you want to support these workers, make sure you select “Film and TV” from the drop-down menu when you donate (we gave $100):

https://entertainmentcommunity.org/

Because all the workers are in this together. As Adam Conover explains in this amazing CNN clip, David Zazlav, the head of CNN parent-company Warner-Discovery, made a quarter of a billion dollars last year, enough to pay all the demands of all the writers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aL-YwKO81go

And Carol Lombardini, spokesvillain for the studio cartel AMPTP, told the press that “”Writers are lucky to have term employment.” As John Rogers says, she “wiped out the doubt of every writer who wasn’t sure this negotiation really IS so important, that it actually IS about turning us into gig workers.”

https://twitter.com/jonrog1/status/1654506611086606336

The stakes in this strike are the same as the stakes in every strike: will workers get a fair share of the value their labor creates, or will that value be piled up in the vaults of $250,000,000/year CEOs? It’s not like the studios especially hate writers — like all corporations, they hate all their workers. The same tactics that they’re using to make it so writers can’t pay the rent today will be turned on every other kind of Hollywood worker tomorrow — and when the writers win this one, they’ll support those workers, too.

There’s a lot of concern about AI displacing creative labor, but the only entity that can take away a writer’s wage is a human being, an executive at a studio. As has been the case since the time of the Luddites, the issue isn’t what the machine does, it’s who it does it for and who it does it to.

After all, as Charlie Stross points out, a corporation is just a “Slow AI,” remorselessly paperclip-maximizing its way through the lives and joy of the flesh-and-blood people who constitute its inconvenient gut-flora:

https://media.ccc.de/v/34c3-9270-dude_you_broke_the_future#video&t=3478

Catch me on tour with Red Team Blues in Berkeley, Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, DC, Gaithersburg, Oxford, Hay, Manchester, Nottingham, London, and Berlin!

[Image ID: Animators walk the picket-line during the Disney Animator's Strike in 1941.]

Image: LA Times https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Screen_Cartoonist%27s_Guild_strike_at_Disney.jpg

CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en