#category 5 cyclone

[tomorrowusa]

Apparently Ron DeSantis feels that science is "woke" and therefore needs to be suppressed.

Ron DeSantis has been accused of a “catastrophic” approach to the climate crisis after he launched his campaign for US president by saying he rejects the “politicization of the weather” and questioning whether hurricanes hitting his home state of Florida have been worsened by climate change.

DeSantis, the Republican Florida governor who announced his bid for the White House via a glitch-heavy Twitter stream on Wednesday, has previously dismissed concerns about global heating as “leftwing stuff” and he expanded upon this theme during a Fox News interview following his campaign launch.

“People tried to say when we had [Hurricane] Ian that it was because of climate change but if you look at the first 60 years from 1900 to 1960 we had more major hurricanes hit Florida than the 60 years since then,” DeSantis told his interlocutor, the former Republican congressman Trey Gowdy.

“This is something that is a fact of life in the Sunshine state. I’ve always rejected the politicization of the weather.”

DeSantis is telling Floridians, "Don't believe your lyin' eyes – or your wet feet for that matter."

Environmental groups have also taken aim at DeSantis over a record on climate they say is no better than Donald Trump’s, his rival for the Republican presidential nomination.

While governor, DeSantis has adopted bills banning Florida’s cities from adopting 100% clean energy goals and barred the state’s pension fund from making investment decisions that consider the climate crisis due to what he called a corporate attempt to “impose an ideological agendaon the American people”. He has also attacked the US military for being “woke” for warning about the national security risks posed by climate impacts.

DeSantis is a ruthlessly ambitious putz who is fixated on accumulating power at all costs.

Warm seas act like jet fuel to tropical cyclones. The temperature of the North Atlantic has unmistakably increased over the past hundred years.

Maybe DeSantis will try to blame "woke thermometers".

The problem for Florida is not so much the number of hurricanes but the intensity of hurricanes.

Category 5 storms making landfall in the US used to be rare. But two (Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Ian) have hit Florida in just the past five years.

Maybe DeSantis cut his high school physics class to watch far right porn. So he may have missed the lesson about warmer air being able to hold larger amounts of moisture.

While wind speed gets the most media attention, it's moisture in the form of rain and storm surge which kills the most people in hurricanes.

We all remember how Trump tried to use a Sharpie to modify a map showing the path of Hurricane Dorian. DeSantis would probably burn the map and close down the National Hurricane Center for being "woke".

DeSantis as president of the US would be a danger to the planet.

[1hot-mess-express1]

Passenger princess

AN: Something short and cute while midterms are doing a number on my will to live Based on this prompt Satoru X reader (fluff, crack?) CW: Mentions of a car crash WC: 602

Satoru bursts through the front doors like a category 5 cyclone, his large frame nearly shaking the house as he makes his way over to you on the couch. Whatever show you are watching is long forgotten as you try desperately to slow your racing heart from the ever-present jump scare of Satoru Gojo. 

“Jesus Christ ‘Toru…do you have any idea how much you just—“Your chastising is quickly cut off as he wiggles his head into your lap, squeezing you tightly around your waist and burying his nose into your stomach. 

“Hey, baby?” he says, looking up at you with those ridiculously beautiful eyes, lips pulled into a wide grin. 

 With a sigh of defeat, your body begins to relax. You place your hand in his hair and brush through the unruly mop of white. He subtly leans into the touch as you try your best to sound still upset. “What do you want?” An eyebrow raises at him in suspicion. 

“Oh nothing, nothing at all, sugar. In fact, this is about what I can do for you, my wonderful, wonderful woman,” he moves to sit up rather quickly, startling you. His hands are on either side of you as his face nuzzles into your neck, leaving feather-light, ticklish kisses between words as he speaks. “Have I ever kiss told you kiss just how much kiss I love you kiss cause I love you kiss so so much kiss I don’t know what I’d ever—“ 

“You crashed the car again, didn’t you?” Your voice is weary as you close your eyes, knot your eyebrows, and instinctively raise your hand to your temples. 

 For a moment, he pauses, hardly breathing as if deciding whether or not he’s gonna tell the truth. That moment passes by quickly, however, and he’s right back to his usual over-excited self as he takes your hands in his and explains, “Yes! BUT I already sent it off to the shop, and I’m rich anyways, so it’s not like it’s expensive and look-“ he pulls his shirt off and stands up, assuming the pose of a starfish, “—not a scratch on me. You should see the other guy” he makes a ridiculous attempt at a sexy face.

Your face immediately drops at the insinuation of his words, hand flying to cover the audible gasp you unknowingly let out. It takes Satoru a moment to process what is going through your head. He stands there with a confused wrinkle in his brow before his eyes blow wide, and he quickly waves his arms around, shaking his head, “No, no, no, god no! It was a joke, baby, please, oh my god, no.” 

“Oh my god ‘Toru, I can’t leave you alone for a second,” you hand your head in your hands, letting out a low groan, but when you peek at him through your fingers, you can’t help but feel a little sorry for him with the sweet pout he’s sporting, intensely inspecting his shoe to avoid having to look you in the eye. You roll your eyes and let out a sigh of defeat before opening your arms. Satoru doesn’t need to be told twice, immediately burying his face in your stomach as you run your fingers through his hair. 

“What am I going to do with you, mister?” you ask with a small, uneasy smile. 

“Never leave my side again, obviously,” Satoru chuckles as if it’s the most obvious solution to your current predicament. He might be right, but maybe you’ll start by taking his driving privileges from him first; he certainly makes a cute passenger princess.

[bekolxeram]

7x03 analysis part 2 — Too many Cats

Tommy flew a helicopter into a Category 5 hurricane, at least the show told us so. Is it even possible for an aircraft to fly in those conditions? Today, we are going to figure out just how strong the storm actually is canonically, and how realistic our beloved weewoo show is.

TW: Hurricane, extreme weather, natural disaster

What is the difference between a tropical storm and a hurricane? What even is a hurricane?

Both tropical storm and hurricane are tropical cyclones, just of different strength. A tropical cyclone is a rotating storm system with a low pressure center. The center, or the eye of the storm, sucks in warm moist air from an oceanic environment and it feeds into the generation of storm clouds that organize themselves into a spiral pattern due to the Earth's rotation, aka Coriolis effect.

A tropical cyclone is classified by its maximum sustained wind.

So if it's below 62 km/h, it's a tropical Depression. if it's between 63-118 km/h, it's a Tropical Storm. A Category 5 hurricane though has a maximum sustained wind speed of over 252 km/h.

A strong enough tropical cyclone is called a hurricane in North America, a typhoon in East Asian, and a cyclone in the Indian Ocean (including Australia).

How strong is the storm in 7x03 actually?

We first see the storm at the end of 7x01, when First Mate Kenneth tells Captain Ochoa there is a strengthening tropical storm in the ship's path. Captain Ochoa decides to reverse course back to LA and instructs Kenneth to alert the Coast Guard, but they get interrupted by the cartel.

Fast forward to 7x02, the next mention of the storm comes from Karen. When Hen is sent home by Chief Simpson, she tries to call Athena, but it goes straight to voicemail. Karen tells her cell service is probably spotty out at sea because of the hurricane, which has just got upgraded.

It's recently upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane, as we can see from Karen's tablet.

Then Hen goes to Maddie to ask the Coast Guard to look for Bathena's cruise ship. When Hen shows Maddie the ship tracking app on her phone, the time is 10:28. (I'm guessing PM because it's already dark outside during the Kyle Ortiz call.)

By the time Chief Simpson comes by to reinstate Hen, she's already talking about a Cat 5 hurricane. That can't be more than an hour or two later.

So which one is it? Is it a Cat 2 or a Cat 5? Who should I trust?

Tommy. Whenever he flies, his safety depends on his understanding of the local wind condition and weather. You should listen to him:

So it's a Cat 5, at least by the time the 118 set off on their journey to save Bathena.

Can a tropical storm intensify into a Cat 5 hurricane in hours?

No, not in real life. The record for most rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone is Hurricane Patricia in 2015, but it still took 24 hours. This doesn't mean the storm in 7x03 is completely made up. I believe I might have found the real life inspiration behind it.

Hurricane Otis (2023)

An area of low pressure formed on October 15, 2023 over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico. While it was during a significant El Niño period and the ocean temperature was record-breaking-ly high, strong vertical wind shear condition near the storm was predicted to hinder its development. It was originally forecasted to make landfall as a mere tropical storm. People in Acapulco went to bed on October 23 expecting moderate wind and light rainfall, many stopped seeking out updates of the storm.

In the early hours of October 24, meteorologists at the NHC recognized from satellite images that tropical storm Otis was rapidly intensifying into a hurricane. The NHC officially upgraded the storm to a Cat 1 hurricane at 13:00 CDT and sent out a hurricane hunter aircraft to accurately measure the actual wind speed of the cyclone.

Satellite images provide a pretty good model to estimate the strength of a tropical cyclone, but the most reliable way to measure wind speed is still to fly an aircraft into it and physically measure it. When the hurricane hunter managed to fly into the eyewall of Otis, everyone realized they made a huge mistake: Otis had already become a Cat 3 hurricane, and it was expected to strengthen even more. It takes time to process data received from the hurricane hunter, so operationally the NHC still classified Otis as a Cat 1 hurricane until the next advisory was scheduled to come out, which was at 16:00 CDT, but by that time, Otis was already near Cat 4 strength. It was then officially upgraded to a Cat 5 hurricane at 22:00 CDT.

While Otis did take around 24 hours to intensify from a tropical storm to a catastrophic hurricane, if you just look at the NHC advisories, it pretty much jumped from a Cat 1 into a Cat 5 in 9 hours. It caused extensive damage to Acapulco when it made landfall because the city was severely underprepared. I suspect the cruise ship disaster arc was inspired by hurricane Otis because it happened just a month after the writer strike ended. Also, in 7x02 Maddie, a 911 dispatcher, was not aware that the tropical storm had already strengthened into a hurricane, which mirrors the unexpected development of hurricane Otis.

As the storm in universe was going back at sea and not making landfall, the authority was probably in even less of a hurry to find out what the actual strength of the cyclone was. So it could take them even longer to send in weather reconnaissance aircrafts. I can imagine the 911-verse version of the storm jumping from a Cat 2 to a Cat 5 officially in mere hours.

Can a helicopter fly in a Cat 5 hurricane?

Technically yes, but the chopper won't be doing the flying. The aforementioned NOAA Hurricane Hunter is a Lockheed P-3 Orion specifically modified and fortified for weather information collection. If this four-engined workhorse has to fight tooth and nail against crosswind and turbulence in order to fly into the eye of the storm, a small single engine helicopter definitely would not fair any better. It would end up getting tossed around, a particular strong downdraft might slam it into the ocean, or a prolong bout of severe turbulence might rip it apart. Luckily in 7x03, Tommy is not actually flying into a hurricane, he's trailing behind it.

NOAA Lockheed WP-3D Orion Hurricane Hunter

In a blink-and-you-miss-it exchange between Buck and Tommy, after Tommy says "a Cat 5 hurricane passed through here", Buck asks why he means by "passed through" and what they are flying in at the moment.

"iNTermITteNt sHOweRs"

When looking at the cross section of a tropical cyclone, you can see rows of rainbands around the eyewall, increasing in size the closer it is to the center of the storm. If you have ever experienced a tropical cyclone making landfall, you would know it starts with sporadic bouts of rainfall (aka intermittent showers), which then gradually increase in frequency and severity as the storm approaches. Once you are within 100-200 km of the eye, wind speed would become violent while the rainbands become so wide and close together it basically keeps raining until you are right under the eye.

These are radar images of hurricane Irma (2017) making landfall in Florida. Bands of moderate to heavy rainfall spread across the inner core region of the cyclone, with still pretty consistent light to moderate precipitation between the gaps. But in the area further away from the eye in the southwest and southeast quadrants, you can see more squall line like patterns. Precipitation would abruptly begin and stop as you fly in and out of those outer lumps of clouds.

Wind speed in that area is no where near hurricane level even for a Cat 5 cyclone, it is typically under 100 km/h. That does not mean it is a safe condition to fly in. Because the outer rainbands of a cyclone are less affected by the storm's vortex dynamics, they behave more like regular thunderstorms. As you know, thunderstorms are big no-no's for aviation safety. In fact, the outer rainbands of a typhoon once contributed to a plane crash in Taiwan.

Conclusion

The hurricane in 7x03 is likely based on reality, albeit with a bit of exaggeration and a shortened timeline for dramatic effect. It is possible to fly and control a helicopter in this specific condition, but the danger is still quite high. Flying into a thunderstorm has a whole different set of risks associated with it, which I will tell you all about next time. Yes, part 3 of this series is "how to crash a helicopter with weather", so stay tuned.

[mindblowingscience]

With warmer oceans serving as fuel, Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely as before to rapidly intensify from wimpy minor hurricanes to powerful and catastrophic, a study said Thursday. Last month Hurricane Lee went from barely a hurricane at 80 mph (129 kph) to the most powerful Category 5 hurricane with 155 mph (249 kph) winds in 24 hours. In 2017, before it devastated Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria went from a Category 1 storm with 90 mph (145 kph) to a top-of-the-chart whopper with 160 mph (257 kph) winds in just 15 hours. The study looked at 830 Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1971. It found that in the last 20 years, 8.1% of the time storms powered from a Category 1 minor storm to a major hurricane in just 24 hours. That happened only 3.2% of the time from 1971 to 1990, according to a study in the journal Scientific Reports. Category 1 hurricanes top out at 95 mph (153 kph) and a hurricane has to have at least 111 mph (178 kph) winds to become major.

Continue Reading.

[ltwilliammowett]

Ship Warren Hastings off the West Coast of Cuba in the Hurricane of 21 October 1846, by unknown

Known as the Great Havana Hurricane in 1846, it hit western Cuba with the intensity of a category 5 hurricane, destroying over 85 merchant ships and almost all the buildings in Havana and claiming over 200 lives in its wake.  On its way north, the storm turned into an extratropical cyclone that wreaked havoc on the east coast of the United States.

[itsscromp]

Sunshine

Guess who is in need of some comfort fluff because theirs a potential cyclone (Hurricane) forming next week... I do :') Word count: 1.2k

The news was circling around your mind all week, A big tropical low was forming out in the ocean, You tried not to pay attention to it, Hoping that it was nothing but just intense rain or whatever. But then as you were walking by the mess hall, the tv was blaring loud as the news was turned on.

"In breaking news, Hurricane Trevor has formed, It is currently slowly making its way to the coast as a category 1 storm, but by the time it reaches landfall, it could intensify to a category 4, potentially even 5."

Oh no... No no no no no !!!

You had a huge fear of storms, any form of storms. But hurricanes were the worst ones you could think of. The fucking screaming winds of death are enough to keep you up at night. You even witnessed your grandparents' house being blown apart by the winds when you were a child. That being etched into your brain for life.

Normally in situations like this, you would rush straight to Simon or Price. But neither of them nor Gaz were on base. Even if they were to get back, they couldn't because of the storm, Leaving you with just Johnny.

As Johnny heard the news as well, he immediately gathered everyone up, including you for a debriefing.

"Alright lads and lassie's listen up, Now, we are all aware of the hurricane being on the path. I want to remind everyone to remain calm during this time. I want everyone to make sure that we understand our emergency protocols for when situations like these arise."

"Yes sir" They all say.

"Good, I'll divide everyone into groups. Groups 1 and 2 will make sure everything that happens to be loose is secure. Groups 3 and 4 I want you all to go around the base and clean up any debris that is lying around. Once done I want you all to ensure you have emergency kits ready. Are we clear ??"

"Yes sir !!" They all say.

"Good, dismissed"

As they disbanded, Johnny saw you fidgeting with your fingers, trying so hard to gather yourself and calm down in this situation. You just wanted it to be over. He gently went over and took your hand.

"Y/n... It's gonna be ok alright ?? I promise I will keep you safe" You knew he meant it. He would... But the anxiety is taking over your brain.

"But... What if the roof is torn off... What if... what if we don't have enough food..." You started to pick up your breathing.

"Easy... easy lad" He gently took deep breaths, encouraging you to follow along, squeezing your hand in the process. It took a bit but then you eventually followed. "Y/n... Would I ever lie to you about what I said ??"

You shook your head softly "No..."

"I mean it, I promise I will look out for you buddy" He softly smiled, you and price often call him sunshine for the way he smiles. Like it would show that everything would be ok.

"Ok... So one step at a time ok ??, Let's start by going down to the store and grabbing the essential stuff ok ??"

You nodded as he smiled again, gently bringing you to the store. Gathering supplies like long-life milk. Water. Batteries, torches etc. During this Johnny tried to cheer you up along the trip around the store.

"Hey y/n, My jokes against Simon haven't been doing good. Maybe I need to butter them up a bit" He smirked standing near the butter aisle. You started to giggle for a bit, making you snort. He continued to make puns around the store hoping to get you to smile and take your mind off of things. Which did work for a little bit.

Until the day it arrived...

"Hurricane Trevor is now officially a category 4 storm and is expected to make landfall tonight"

Your leg bounced as you watched the news, The panic is setting in with you even though you did all the right things by preparing. All the vehicles and armoury were locked away safely. All debris was cleaned up around the base and tossed away. Everyone was ready for the bumpy ride ahead.

Johnny meanwhile has been busy prepping something that hoped to help you relax, In his room he had been building a blanket fort with many a pillow's. Making sure the supplies were there too, and some entertainment too like his Yugioh cards.

So when he found you again, he gently guided you to his room. "But johnny... We gotta..."

"It's ok lad, Just follow me" He said softly as he guided you to his room, Opening the door, you saw the Blanket fort all set up. "You get to bunker down with your bestie" He smiled wide. Making you smile softly in the process.

He gently brought you to the fort and laid you down, tucking you in a weighted blanket securely as snuggled up to you. Wrapping his arms around you.

"We're in this together y/n, You don't have to face this alone" He rubbed your back and pressed a gentle kiss on your forehead. Instinctively you snuggled up to him, safe and secure with him.

The storm made landfall and you could hear the winds pick up from the inside. While it wasn't loud, it was still scary. Johnny then helped distract you from the storm by pulling out his Yugioh cards and teaching you how to play. "So the object of the game is to get the first person down to 0 life points, and you can do that by summoning these monster cards. The green cards are called spell cards and the pinkish-purple ones are trap cards. Does that make sense ??"

"Yeah... Ok let's do this"

Over time you were having a blast, This game was really fun. At one point you even managed to kick johnny's butt at it.

"And that's 0 Scotsman" You smirked, puffing out your chest proudly.

"Good game y/n good..."

Before he could finish the sentence, the place went black. The power was cut off. You started to panic, trying to find and hold onto him, he could feel you shake out of fear.

"Shhh shhh... It's ok buddy... The power just went out" pulled out his phone and turned it on to find the main torch. He turned it on and the room brightened up. "It'll be back on soon" He gently rubbed your arm.

You tried to focus on your breathing, god you were so scared... why were you scared... Johnny soon gently moved you back into the fort and laid you down, holding you close.

"Johnny... Sometimes... I feel like I shouldn't be a soldier... Things like these constantly scare me, I forget what I am when shit like this happens."

"That's all Glaikit y/n" (Stupid) "Soldier or not we are all scared of at least one thing, it... makes us people at the end of the day. You are an amazing and brave soldier... I know you can do this ok ??" He gently rubbed your back.

"Ok..." You nodded as you gently snuggled up to him, wanting to never leave his side. You yawn and begin to fall asleep. Lulled by the thrum of his heartbeat. He was here... Your sunshine... your best friend.

The next morning the storm had passed, and you woke up to the sounds of the birds chirping. Johnny still held you close even if he fell asleep as well. You were incredibly grateful for Johnny to stick by your side throughout the whole thing... He really was like sunshine.

Taglist: @callofdudes @fun-k-board

[newtonsheffield]

I use to live in the suburb where that video was taken and in the 16 years I lived there the flood waters were never that high, even after category 5 cyclones! Stay safe where you are and fingers crossed the rain eases up very soon.

Yoooo! We’re neighbours! Or used to nearly be!

How crazy is it? I’m on the tablelands so I’m fairly safe but the Palmerston is torn to shreds

I’ve never seen anything like this and I’ve lived in North Queensland for 27 years now. This system just won’t dissipate, absolute madness.

[warningsine]

Hotels and homes destroyed, impassable roads and thousands of people cut off. This is how Acapulco, in the Mexican state of Guerrero, has been left after the passage of Hurricane Otis, the most powerful Pacific storm to make landfall on Mexican territory in the last 30 years. The cyclone, which in 12 hours went from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane, the highest possible classification, has left the popular tourist destination resembling a war zone with uprooted trees, debris, roofs torn off and buildings without walls. Neither the National Meteorological Service (SMN) nor local and federal authorities were able to predict the intensity of the hurricane. Scientists were also caught by surprise. The speed with which the cyclone intensified was unusual and forced Mexican authorities to issue an evacuation alert for the area just hours before Otis made landfall.

The SMN warned at 12:00 p.m. Tuesday, that the hurricane would reach Acapulco at 6:00 p.m. the following day. However, the storm arrived earlier than expected and devastated the coastal city at 12:25 a.m. Wednesday. Winds of more than 270 kilometers per hour (168 mph) hit the town and the state of Guerrero, one of the poorest in the country, destroying everything in their path. More than 500,000 people were left without electricity, internet and telephone connection in the early hours of the morning and only part of the service has so far been restored. The breakdown of communications has complicated access to the affected areas and there is still no official information on the number of victims and the amount of damage caused, although it is expected that material losses will amount to millions of dollars.

The unusual power of the hurricane has attracted the attention of the scientific community, which links the devastating power of Otis to the El Niño season, a phenomenon associated with changes in the atmosphere and the fluctuation of water temperature in the Pacific. “There is a hypothesis that it could be related to the rise in ocean temperature, which does not mean that there are more hurricanes, but it does mean that when there is one, the cyclone accelerates its formation by taking on more energy under these conditions,” explains Claudia Rojas of the Department of Process Engineering and Hydraulics of the Metropolitan Autonomous University (UAM).

There are those who point to a relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes, although the scientific community is still investigating the matter. “El Niño is inducing these cyclones to reach high categories. However, it is difficult to attribute the responsibility for Hurricane Otis to climate change,” says Christian Domínguez, a researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). “What is known on a global scale is that with climate change there will be fewer hurricanes in the Pacific, but they will be more intense,” he adds. “With the information we currently have, it is not so clear that the intensity has to do with climate change because there are not so many historical records, although we have not ruled it out.”

After making landfall, Otis was downgraded to a tropical storm after depositing heavy rainfall in several states in central and southern Mexico. However, the threat has not yet passed. “The risk is not only posed by the strength of the winds. There are more dangers that such a phenomenon can entail, such as landslides and the flooding of rivers and streams,” says Domínguez. In Acapulco, some 20,000 people live in areas susceptible to flooding or landslides. The hurricane season in the Pacific begins around May 15 and ends around November 30, as such Guerrero could still experience the consequences of other cyclones, says Rojas. “Research work has shown that after a prolonged drought, very intense rainfall events occur, as is the case with tropical cyclones that can reach these [high] categories.”

Otis is not the first hurricane in recent years to strengthen so rapidly. In 2015, Tropical Storm Patricia escalated to a Category 5 hurricane in 10 hours. The difference with the current phenomenon was that it did so offshore, and authorities in the states of Jalisco, Colima and Nayarit were able to evacuate 50,000 people before it made landfall. The storm, catalogued by the SMN as “extremely dangerous” and by the media as the “largest in history,” quickly lost strength after making landfall in Mexican territory thanks to the mountainous system of the Sierra Madre Occidental, which eroded the outer ring of the cyclone and prevented greater damage and devastation. Guerrero, in this case, did not have the same luck.

Acapulco International Airport, which receives millions of tourists every year, has been completely flooded and suffered serious damage to its infrastructure, forcing the suspension of all flights. The main highways are also closed, preventing communications with Mexico City. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador had ordered his Security Cabinet to go to the affected area, but on seeing the seriousness of the situation, he decided to personally supervise the rescue efforts himself. The Mexican army has initiated an emergency protocol and 37 shelters have been set up throughout the state for victims.

[kp777]

By Julia Conley

Common Dreams

May 17, 2024

"We had to add additional bleaching alert levels to appropriately categorize just how hot it was," said a coral reefs expert at the agency.

The phrase "off the charts" is no exaggeration in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest warning about a global coral bleaching event that scientists have linked to rising ocean temperatures and heat stress.

Derek Manzello, coordinator of NOAA's Coral Reef Watch Program, told reporters Thursday that about 60.5% of the world's coral reefs are now experiencing heat stress severe enough to cause bleaching, which can make the reefs more vulnerable to disease and harm the biodiversity they support.

Manzello said at the press briefing that after observing the first months of the coral bleaching event, which began in early 2023, NOAA changed its existing bleaching alert system because conditions were so abnormally warm in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea.

The agency's new bleaching alert system categorizes heat stress for coral reefs on a scale of 1-5, with Alert Level 5 representing ocean heat that could kill "approximately 80% or more of corals on a particular reef," Manzello said.

"We had to add additional bleaching alert levels to appropriately categorize just how hot it was," he said, with Level 5 "analogous to a Category 5 hurricane or cyclone."

"I hate that I have to keep using that word 'unprecedented.'... But, again, we are seeing unprecedented patterns again this year."

The world's oceans, Manzello, said, are going "crazy haywire."

In the Caribbean this year, heat stress off the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Colombia are now at levels that in previous years weren't seen until the summer months.

"I hate that I have to keep using that word 'unprecedented,'" Manzello told The New York Times. "But, again, we are seeing unprecedented patterns again this year."

The bleaching that took place last year resulted in coral mortality of at least 50% and as high as 93% in reefs off the coast of Huatulco, Mexico, according to a team of Mexican scientists.

In the Atlantic, fossil fuel-driven planetary heating has been exacerbated by El Niño—the natural phenomenon that causes warmer-than-normal ocean surface temperatures—and has caused the "most unprecedented and extreme" bleaching-level heat stress observed in the past year.

Manzello said 99.7% of reef areas in the Atlantic have experienced heat stress that could cause bleaching.

"The Atlantic Ocean has been off the charts," he said.

Scientists have recorded four global bleaching events since 1998 and have linked all of them to warmer ocean temperatures. Since 1950, the world has lost half of its coral reefs, according to a 2021 study.

Along with serving marine life, a quarter of which rely on coral reefs at some point in their life cycles, reefs also protect coasts from storms, whose growing severity in recent years scientists have also linked to planetary heating.

The current bleaching event has affected reefs off the coasts of at least 62 countries and territories.

Scientists earlier this year confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year in human history and the warmest year on record for the world's oceans, which absorb more than 90% of excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions.

"I am very worried about the state of the world's coral reefs," Manzello said. "We are seeing [ocean temperatures] play out right now that are very extreme in nature."

[onegrumpylumpy]

I drew this during the lead up to a category 5 cyclone hitting Western Australia. I saw this headline and couldn't resist. I apologise deeply

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from the New York Times:

In yet another dire warning about the coming Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday predicted that this year could see between 17 to 25 named tropical cyclones, the most it has ever forecast in May for the Atlantic Ocean.

The NOAA forecast joins more than a dozen other recent projections from experts at universities, private companies and other government agencies that have predicted a likelihood of 14 or more named storms this season; many were calling for well over 20.

Rick Spinrad, the NOAA administrator, said at a news conference on Thursday morning that the agency’s forecasters believed eight to 13 of the named storms could become hurricanes, meaning they would include winds of at least 74 miles per hour. Those could include four to seven major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher — with winds of at least 111 m.p.h.

According to NOAA, there is an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season, with a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

While it only takes one storm in a below-average season to devastate a community, having conditions conducive to almost twice the average amount of storms makes it more likely that North America will experience a tropical storm or, worse, a major hurricane.

There are 21 entries on this year’s official list of storm names, from Alberto to William. If that list is exhausted, the National Weather Service moves on to an alternative list of names, something it’s only had to do twice in its history.

The critical area of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form is already abnormally warm just ahead of the start of the season. Benjamin Kirtman, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami, earlier described the conditions as “unprecedented,” “alarming” and an “out-of-bounds anomaly.”

[protoindoeuropean]

bold the things you’ve experienced/observed:

astronomical

• meteor (shower) (bolide / superbolide) • comet (great comet) • lunar eclipse (total / partial) • solar eclipse (total (annular) / partial ; partially)* • zodiacal light • gegenschein • airglow • aurora (borealis/australis) •

meteorological

• rainbow (double / triple) (moonbow) • Brocken spectre • glory • halo (sun dogs) • light pillar (sun pillar) • green flash • mirage (fata morgana) • optical looming • lightning (<50 m / <10 m) (dry / ball lightning) • st. elmo’s fire • sprite / blue jet / other transient luminous events • cloud iridescence • noctilucent / lenticular / anvil / shelf/roll / mammatus clouds • supercell / hurricane=typhoon=cyclone (category 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5) • tornado (multiple-vortex tornado / waterspout / landspout / dust devil / fire whirl) • hail (>marble / >quarter / >golf ball)* • glaze ice • sandstorm •

note 1: a solar eclipse seen “partially” means that the eclipse itself might have been total, but you weren't in the path of totality and thus did not experience it as total

note 2: a marble has a diameter of about 13 mm; a quarter is about the same size as a 50 cent or 2 € coin, with a diameter of about 25 mm; a golf ball has a diameter of about 43 mm

if anyone does this and tags me, you shall receive my eternal gratitude (may you experience cloud iridescence every day for the rest of your life etc.)

{the original post}

[follow-up-news]

With warmer oceans serving as fuel, Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely as before to rapidly intensify from wimpy minor hurricanes to powerful and catastrophic, a study said Thursday. Last month Hurricane Lee went from barely a hurricane at 80 mph (129 kph) to the most powerful Category 5 hurricane with 155 mph (249 kph) winds in 24 hours. In 2017, before it devastated Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria went from a Category 1 storm with 90 mph (145 kph) to a top-of-the-chart whopper with 160 mph (257 kph) winds in just 15 hours. The study looked at 830 Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1971. It found that in the last 20 years, 8.1% of the time storms powered from a Category 1 minor storm to a major hurricane in just 24 hours. That happened only 3.2% of the time from 1971 to 1990, according to a study in the journal Scientific Reports.

[thrina-thrina-on-the-wall]

prayer request: category 5 cyclone coming through.

I'm not too worried personally (but what do I know? the last cyclones missed us), but it'll be bad in a regular village

[the5n00k]

It's been 5 hours since your ask question, but if you'd like to share I'd like to hear your top 5 closest-held headcanons for TGAMM? Can be random or angsty or plot related or none, the sky's the limit! 😊 I hope the movie was good, I haven't seen it yet!

(the movie was good but I feel like if I actually cared about DND I would have enjoyed it more lol still worth a watch)

OK this is such a good ask because ooo boy I got a few headcanons

In no particular order:

1: Autistic Scratch/ADHD Molly

This one's pretty silly but it means a lot to me for some reason. When Scratch gets easily overwhelmed, has a breakdown over something small, and covers his ears/flinches at even the idea of a loud noise, I feel so seen. And Molly's hyperfocus to the point of insomnia and her tendency to sorta steamroll conversations when she's excited is a lot like some ADHD friends I know (you can see me drawing them with happy stims a LOT to make up for how frequently I draw them sad)

2: Molly has a pocket on the inside of her jacket Scratch likes to chill in

This one is self explanatory. It started as a joke but now it won't let go of my brain

(yes this is an adventure time reference)

3: Scratch died anonymously/doesn't have a grave, therefore he doesn't remember his past

His lack of memories has always been so fascinating to me and after listening to Ride the Cyclone and the horrific concept of dying without memories because no one knows who you are? YEAH I'm a little attached to this one—

Can't decide if this one leans too hard into the "theory" category rather than just a headcanon tho

4: The McGees went to the courthouse and got an official adoption paper for Scratch

This. This is just canon. I refuse to believe it isn't. Also any fics that refer to Scratch as Molly and Darryl's brother make me so soft. The siblings ever

5: Molly's box of sadness contains little reminders and memories of past friendships she's left behind

Technically not my headcanon but WOOOOW I'd break so badly if it was true. As someone who's incredibly sentimental about the past people in my life I no longer speak to, I would simply shatter. There's a reason why the "DO NOT OPEN" label is there and I have a feeling it's not just for sad cat posters.

I also have one or two that got disproven by season 2 and some visual/stylistic headcanons for how I draw the characters but it didn't feel worth pointing out lol mostly just named the big ones. I don't really have a ton of headcanons because this show does a pretty good job of giving little character details (looking at you, Scratch's gorgeous handwriting and Molly's hatred of maple syrup)

Thanks for the awesome question tho!

[yuwigqi]

This is a thesaurus of basic wrestling terminology, to serve as an easy to use complementary document to my underway Pro Wrestling AU

Scripting: In pro wrestling, the moves, outcome of the match, and storylines are scripted. When someone is slammed onto the mat, it does hurt. Injuries can and do happen, because these moves are dangerous. Generally speaking, most actual wrestlers would take a non-wrestler calling wrestling "fake" as extremely disrespectful to the injuries wrestlers face from performing for the crowds they love to entertain.

Kayfabe: This is the word for something being a storyline, not in factual reality. For example, a wrestler may be perfectly healthy, but have a kayfabe injury, where their arm is broken or something. They don't actually have a broken arm, but are acting it for the storyline. Another example is a kayfabe attack on a civilian/fan. Sometimes heels will attack a wrestlers wife or something, and this attack is obviously not an actual attack.

Gimmick: The gimmick is the wrestler's character. It can be silly like a plumber, a ninja, a turkey, a cyborg, an incestuous 1940s tv show character, a the Candle Cove creepypasta, a clown, a piece of abstract art, or any other number of nonsense. Or it can be serious, drawing from the wrestler's real life personality, to expand into someone who feels like a legitimate combat athlete (or general action hero).

(Baby)Face: The Face (short for Babyface) is the good guy in wrestling. They're who the fans are meant to cheer for, by appealing to the fans. Note, being the "Good Guy" doesn't actually mean the character needs to have good morals or anything. Steve Austin and MJF are both examples of a character who is an irredeemable dick who the fans are still meant to cheer for.

Heel: The heel is the bad guy. You want to see them get beat up. Can range from the chickenshit whose sole purpose is for Faces to wreck (good examples are the Perfect Event, Rosa Mendes, Sad Corbin, and the Librarians), to serve as a dominant force who takes out face after face (Good examples are Madison Rayne, Triple H, The Bar, and Zack Sabre Jr.)

Tweener: This is obviously, "in between Face and Heel." They are pretty rare in modern wrestling, though some companies like AEW and NWA have had a few more notable ones in the fast 5 years than almost the entire preceding decade. Generally, they fall into one of two categories: Someone who adapts to the opponent: When they fight a face, they're the bad guy, when they fight a heel, they're a good guy. They themselves aren't set. The other category is just...a lot more rare and harder to do, but they're generally meant to just go out there and say what they say, and the fans react however they react. Aside from MJF, Linda McMahon, and Brandi Rhodes, I can't really think of a lot of other examples of this.

Referee: You know what a referee is lol. In big companies they're another actor, who in most cases knows the script of the match, and plays their part. In big companies, referees also have important roles outside of that, such as checking the wrestlers for legitimate injuries, (for which EMTs contracted with the big company can respond to), communicating different orders from the Production staff to the wrestlers in the ring, or helping wrestlers know where the cameraman are at any given time.

Move: Any kind of attack one wrestler does to another. Basic categories: Strikes (punches, kicks, headbutts, hip attacks, etc), Suplexes (which is where a wrestler grabs an opponent and throws them in some way, examples include Vertical, German, Butterfly, Japanese Ocean Cyclone, Reverse Gutwrench, etc), Slams (where an opponent grabs an opponent and directly slams them down; examples include Front Slams, Powerslams, Fallaway Slams, Backbreakers, Fireman's Carry/Samoan Drops, STOs, etc), Drivers (wrestler grabs opponent and slams them down in a particularly specific manor, traditionally in a sitout or kneeling position; most often meant to damage the neck; examples include Piledrivers, Fisherman drives, Flamingo, Vertebreakers, etc), Powerbombs (the wrestler lifts an opponent onto their shoulds and drives them down onto their back; examples include Tiger Bombs, Jacknifes, Spin-Out, Sitout/Sitdown, etc. Alleyoops are normally included in this category despite being meant to damage the chest or face), Facebusters (a move meant to slam an opponents face into the mat; examples include Sitout, Inverted Stomps, Ace Crushers/Cutters, Reverse STOs, etc), DDTs (meant to drive an opponents head into the mat in a front facelock positon; examples include Spike, Tornado, Satellit, Inverted, etc), Neckbreakers (meant to slam the opponent's neck down to the mat or wrench it in some way; examples include Sitouts, Flying, Shiranuis, Overdrives, Swinging etc), Dives (an opponent dives onto an opponent from a high place; examples include Moonsaults, Shooting Stars, Splashes, Crossbodies, etc.) and Submissions (we'll get to those next). Other miscellaneous categories include Lungblowers, Body Crushes, Arm and Leg Breakers and snaps, Jawbreakers and Jawshatterers, Tijeras, and many more, but if I mention one of those, I'll explain at that point.

Submissions: A specific hold that causes continuous damage to the opponent, with the goal to make them "submit" (forfeit the match) through either tapping out or vocally giving up. They can range from extremely simple to extremely complex (though in the United States, complex submissions are almost entirely absent from large, televised companies, with very few exceptions).

Win Conditions: The way to win a match. In any simple match in most large companies, there are seven possible wins, with five being drastically more common than the other two. Pinfall: one wrestler pins an opponents to the mat, almost ways for a count of 3 (the standard counting speed does very heavily by region however). Submission: forcing the opponent to give up due to a painful hold be either tapping out (traditionally it requires 3 consecutive taps but this detail isn't normally relevant), disqualification (where a wrestler either breaks minor rules over and over, or breaks a major rule once, and there for is...well...disqualified), Count-Out (One or both wrestlers are outside of the wrestling ring past the allotted time: in the U.S. States, American Samoa, Europe, and India, it is normally 10, and in Japan and Mexico it is normally 20. Puerto Rico varies by company). And "10-Count," (where one or both wrestler is on the ground, and unable to rise to their feet within a count of 10; if a promotion has a 10-count, which most do, it's almost always 10, though 5, 8, and 20 counts do exist in niche corners; someone actually losing to a 10 count is extraordinarily rare in most promotions in a normal match: in practice, it is allowed for the wrestler to take time to catch their breath are a particularly painful or exhausting move). The other two win conditions in most wrestling are direct knockout, and technical knockout. Direct knockouts might happen in a big company once every few months. A direct knockout is when a move (almost always a strike) immediately puts an opponent completely unconscious and the referee stops the match. A Technical Knockout is nearly extinct in modern wrestling, and when it happens it is a highly specific storyline. It's when one wrestler is unable to defend themself from repeated strikes, and the referee stops the match for their safety.

Shooting: Shooting is when a wrestler does a move either that was unscripted, or done with enough force to cause a real injury. For example, a strike much more stiff (hard) than the other wrestler consented to, or doing a slam that the other wrestler was not prepared for. This is extremely dangerous, and is supposed to be taboo. Many wrestlers get Blacklisted for shooting on opponents. And yet, it is still common, with wrestlers like Drew Gulak doing it constantly, wrestlers like Yoshiko permanently disabling an opponent and still getting bookings, and men regularly hitting women wrestlers harder than their male counterparts.

Managers, Valets, and guards: These are broad categories to encapsulate any person who follows the match participants to the ring, as a sort of moral (or physical) support while they wrestle. Managers are playing the character of a wrestlers like, actual agent, to help the wrestler get better matches, and often speak on their "clients" behalf. They are meant to be seen as business people. Notable examples include Paul Heyman, Lana, James Mitchell, Prince Nana, and Vickie Guerrero. A valet is essentially just someone who follows the wrestling to the ring as moral support. In storyline, they don't have a particular "purpose." Notable examples include Queen Sharmell, Miss Elizabeth, Mr. Fuji, Missy Hyatt, and Sir Mo (who was a wrestler, but served primarily as a valet during this gimmick). "Guards" is a sort of informal phrase to mean tag team partners or "security" who come to the ring to support their partner during singles matches.

Gimmick Matches: This is any match that has rules different than normal. They can be inside of a metal cage, there can a specific weapon involved like stairs or ladders or light tubes, they can be wrestling on a high place, there can be fire, they might only be able to win under a certain condition, they might be on a truck, anything is possible essentially.

Styles: Wrestling has "styles," that largely vary by region, though there's always exceptions. American Pro-Wrestling (often called "Sports Entertainment" by WWE and some other smaller companies) is characterized by every wrestler having a unique moveset, lots of promos (people talking lol), and a focus on excitement and thrills at all costs. Japanese wrestling is called "Puroresu" and is characterized by much harder strikes and slams, much longer matches, and the turnbuckles being different than the rest of the world. Mexican wrestling is called "Lucha," and is characterized by a much higher focus on dives, complex submissions, and many wrestlers having similar movesets. The referees often have much more personality and gimmicks than other styles, and most matches are best of three falls, and no DQ. The whole "Lucha mask" thing isn't nearly has big as tv makes it seem. Mask vs. Mask matches happen all the time, and oftentimes its not a big deal at all. Many wrestlers lose their mask early in their career and wrestle without for decades, and many never even wore one. (Normally, women (luchadora) would then compete in Hair vs. Hair or Hair vs. Mask matches). European wrestling is occasionally called "Catch-as-Catch-Can," but normally its just called "Pro Wrestling." Most similar to American wrestling, but sometimes with few moves per match, and more traditional "wrestling" (like the kind at the Olympics) to start the match, often times taking up 2-5 minutes of the match (though some wrestlers have 30 minute matches like this lol). Indian wrestling is mostly run by one man, the Great Khali, who trains almost every wrestler in the country, and is known for being...pretty bad. Therefore, most Indian wrestling is less athletic and complicated (most, some wrestlers like Divya Ch are actually good by global standards). Known for storylines being afar more provocative than modern companies, with kayfabe rapes, slavery, police brutality, and hate crimes all being common. A few styles are shared across all major wrestling regions, like "Deathmatch" Wrestling (wrestling with insane amounts of blood and weapons), Commission Wrestling (wrestling a match to be sold online for the sake of being bought as a sort of SFW porn), the "Indie Style" (characterized by a ton of dives, constant appealing to the fans, and moves like Superkicks, Piledrivers, Ace Crushers, and Satellite DDTs being a staple or most wrestlers movesets), Comedy Wrestling (wrestling meant to be silly, with people wrestling dolls or brooms, wrestlers pulling out fake guns, crashing into invisible walls, throwing people onto Legos or DnD dice, kissing as a form of attack, etc), and "Shoot" Wrestling, which is scripted pro wrestling meant to look more like actual MMA sports.

Okay, obviously this is not comprehensive lol, but generally speaking, if I reference something that isn't here, I'll explain it in the post.

Have fun!

(BTW the reason I didn't link to examples is because there were so many that my computer raised to 180 degrees Fahrenheit to load, so sorry about that lol)