#and use them to write Ukraine off again

[maximumphilosopheranchor]

"One might think that an intelligence failure can be benign: The good guys do far better than expected, the bad guys far worse. In fact, erring on the side of pessimism can be as big a problem as being too bullish. The period just before and after Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, is a good example of this. At the West’s most influential research organizations, prominent analysts—many of them political scientists who follow Russian military affairs—confidently predicted that Russia would defeat its smaller neighbor within weeks. American military leaders believed this consensus, to the point that the Joint Chiefs of Staff chair reportedly told members of Congress that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours of a Russian attack. Although those analysts’ gloomy assessments turned out to be wrong, they’ve nevertheless made the United States and its allies overly cautious in assisting Ukraine in its self-defense.(..)

As we reread scores of articles and reports, listened to podcasts, and reviewed op-eds and interviews, we noticed how little uncertainty had been expressed. Russia, prominent analysts had insisted, had completely modernized its military. Its soldiers were no longer chiefly conscripts but professionals. Its military doctrine—particularly its organization of units into so-called battalion tactical groups, which are small infantry battalions reinforced with tanks and artillery—was a stroke of organizational genius. Its soldiers and airmen had been battle-tested in Syria and earlier operations in Ukraine. The two of us pored over the maps, reprinted widely, that showed half a dozen or more red arrows effortlessly piercing Ukraine up to its western border.

To the extent that analysts discussed Ukraine in any detail, its citizens were depicted as the demoralized and atomized victims of a corrupt government. The country’s substantial Russophone population was portrayed as largely indifferent to rule from Moscow or Kyiv. Ukraine’s equipment was no match for advanced Russian systems. They had experienced only static warfare in the Donbas and would have no chance against a Russian blitzkrieg. Volodymyr Zelensky was portrayed as an ineffective president. He was a comedy performer, not a wartime leader; his government, intelligence services, and armed forces had been penetrated by Russian spies and saboteurs. Ukrainians might not even put up much of a guerrilla resistance. On top of it all came consistent policy advocacy: assertions that Ukraine was not worth arming or that well-intentioned efforts to do so would merely increase suffering.

Two and a half years later, the Russians have taken as many as 600,000 casualties; Ukrainian cities have been shattered but still stand, while Ukrainian drones have hit Moscow. Ukrainians have driven the Black Sea Fleet from its anchorages around Crimea, sunk a third of its ships, and freed up sea lanes for the vital export of Ukrainian agricultural products. Ukrainian forces have in the past few weeks seized an area larger than Los Angeles inside the borders of Russia itself.

The same expert analytic community that erred early in the war continues to dominate much of the public and governmental discourse. Many of them persist in downplaying Ukrainian chances and counseling against giving the Ukrainians weapons that they have repeatedly shown themselves able to use with great effect. Some of them still warn of Russian escalation, up to and including the use of nuclear weapons, even as one Russian red line after another has faded to pink and vanished.(..)

The standard analysis of Russia and Ukraine paid almost no attention to the documented corruption of the Russian military, the rote nature of its exercises, and the failure of attempts to professionalize it. Far from having an abundance of well-trained personnel akin to American and British soldiers, Russian forces consisted for the most part of conscripts who had been bribed or coerced into signing up for a second year of duty in the same old abusive system. Many commentators wrongly compared Vladimir Putin’s forces to their Western counterparts, yielding predictions that Russia would employ “shock and awe” against the Ukrainians—as if its air force had experience and organization similar to that of the United States.(..)

Many observers also paid scant attention to all that had changed in Ukraine since 2014. This point is crucial: Many Western analysts had been trained as Russia specialists. Implicitly, perhaps subconsciously, they viewed Ukraine the way Russian imperialists did: as adjunct to Russia. In many cases ignorant of Ukrainian history, and even dismissive of its claims to national identity and political cohesion, authors of nearly a quarter of the reports we read did not even attempt to describe Ukraine as anything more than a target set for Russia. Many had never visited Ukraine, or spoken with Westerners—including members of allied training missions who had served there—who might have had different and better-informed views.

Possibly most disturbing, the two of us discovered just how small and insular the world of Russian-military analysis was. Think-tank political scientists with narrow specialties had enormous influence in a community whose incentives, unlike those in more vibrant academic disciplines, were for consensus rather than vigorous debate. Many authors made oracular pronouncements and seemed to resent serious questioning by outsiders, even including retired senior military.

We do not doubt prominent analysts’ smarts or honest intentions. But we were reminded of how some public-health experts acted in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic: confidently rendering judgments, dismissing doubts about them, excluding other experts—such as child psychologists, on the question of closing or opening schools—with relevant expertise different from their own.

Many in the public-health community have since engaged in some introspection. Russia experts have shown little such self-awareness, let alone self-criticism. The same experts continue to appear in the same forums, visit the White House, and brief an intelligence community that largely shares its views."

[karlachismylife]

I am a little scared to write characters with different backgrounds, like Russian characters in the CoD franchise, because I'm afraid a Russian person will see it and be like, "What the fuck is this" and laugh at it maybe 😭 So I have to ask, do you ever find yourself judging fics based on how they portray the characters and the language? Like "this doesn't fit well" or "that's not how it works" type of stuff.. Are there any deal breakers, something you despise in fics, or maybe even advice for writing Russian characters... Thank you in advance, have a great day! 🩵

Hey comrade! This is a good question! And I can totally relate; not just to writing non-Russian characters, but even writing Russians from CoD is intimidating, because they are much older than me and witnessed a lot of historical and cultural changes in the country (even a whole another country if we think that at least Nikolai was born in USSR) that I haven't, and trust me, times haven't stopped being crazy here for the last 30 years or even more, so for me not having witnessed the 90s or being a baby in 2000s is a reason to be scared shitless writing for them, cuz fuck if I know how a person that lived through those times thinks.

All that to say, I think it's completely normal to feel awkward writing characters with backgrounds you're not familiar with, and also it's not a big deal if you get stuff wrong sometimes. I mean, isn't there like a whole bunch of fics about task force 141 and the "tapping out" ceremony that seems to exist in USA army only? People still enjoy them and no one was hurt by it. It's fiction and art, and first and foremost we want you to enjoy creating it; moreover, you are doing it and sharing it for free, so every decent person will always be grateful and supportive, and if anyone is coming at you aggressively for getting something wrong, you can tell them идите нахуй and block them. Mocking an artist that put effort and love into a piece of art is one of the worst things one can do.

(sorry this turned out longer than I expected so I'm hiding it under the cut). CW!politics and heavy themes, somewhat of a rant. I tried to summarize in the end and give a few tips so if you want to skip the rant, go down.

So me and my Paris (@nrdmssgs) came togther to make a list of stuff that might catch our eye or turn us off from reading a fic. Keep in mind that these are just opinions of two people! And I know for a fact that some Russians will not agree with me on some of these. So again, my main tip is not to overstress; we are genuinely glad when Russian characters get recognition despite all the negativity often surrounding them.

First, I'll just say, there are a lot of things that irk us in the games themselves. This goes not just for weird Russian accents or sometimes broken Russian altogether; I personally am very displeased with how freely (and wrongly, lol) they use the term "gulag" (ГУЛАГ) there. First of all, it is not a synonym to prison/camp, it's the name of the government agency that was in charge of running labor camps in USSR, so calling the camp itself this word is simply incorrect; second, it's a big tragic page in history, so throwing it around willy-nilly as some oooh scary prison place where characters in a pew pew game are put and can escape just feels insensitive to me. Generations of people whose countless families were hurt by this system are very much alive right now and it is a raw wound unfortunately, and the government is very much refusing to acknowledge this tragedy in its fullness. So there's that. There's also way too good-looking Makarov that spent who knows how much time in solitary confinement (we have people actively dying in solitary right now in much shorter time), there's Milena with a single bank account (show me one Russian oligarch that doesn't have their money shoved in 100 different places, uh-huh), there's Yegor Novak who is Ukrainan, but speaks Russian (yes, considering that he was born in USSR, he most likely speaks both languages, but erasing his identity is still problematic). So you see, there's a lot of shit to combat in canon already, and it's worth spending time looking into some of these things. Now to the fics!

I will say, I do notice of course when a Russian character is written by a non-Russian person that doesn't know much about Russian language/culture/mentality/history/whatever. And while I understand that it's hard and won't throw a fic away for not getting every little thing right, there is stuff that catches my attention.

The most obvious would be the language, of course. Russian is grammatically much more complicated than English and number one giveaway are mistakes in grammatical cases/genders. Even my good comrade here who knows Russian very well and surprises me with impeccable use of complicated constructions that show they understand some nuanced connotations/usage of words, even they often make mistakes with genders of words. And I can't blame them, for a native English speaker it is a new concept! But this, and also just the sentence structures, incorrect word choice (again, connotations are key) are always jarring in text. Usually I just skim over it and forget in the next sentence, sometimes it does make me laugh, but like. I'm not gonna make fun of anyone for making a mistake in a language, I appreciate when people make effort. But I do encourage everyone to send their Russian text to someone who can proofread it (me, for example, DMs and askbox always open). And if you really want to do it on your own, maybe don't just rely on google translate and such and try to do it with a dictionary and some base-level grammar lessons so you can make sure the endings of the words are alright, at least. Then we can talk about the difference between "blyat'", "blyad'", "blya", "blyadina" and "blyadstvo" :D

Another thing I do always have a quick upset sigh about is when people call borsht a Russian soup. No it's not, it's Ukranian. We do eat it a lot, yes, and it's not inherently bad or wrong to write a Russian character eating/cooking it, but it is nice when people do not add to the appropriation of Ukranian culture that's been going on since for-fucking-ever. Same goes for unfortunately many other cultures that Russian imperialism tried swallowing, so it's always better to google it and check. And just food in general, maybe spend a little time looking up what's the difference between pel'meny and varyeniky or what's okroshka. It's always an amazing experience when someone gets such details right! And an even better experience when you don't erase other Slavic or even Eastern European identities, brushing everyone under "Russian" rug. We are definitely nor a homogenous crowd! Moreover, not everyone born in Russia (and especially USSR) will be Russian. Looking into different ethnicities and nationalities that live here is just interesting if nothing else, but also very very important after centuries of opression.

I also have some non-serious beef with this magical "Siberia" western comrades love writing about, I touched on the topic here. An amazing impression is when people use less broad geographical names or look at less overused places. Did you know that Natalia "Raptor" Orlova is from Kamchatka? It's such a rich region with a lot to tell about!

What I do definitely dislike and it can turn me off from finishing the read at all, is insensitive writing of the characters themselves in terms of their background. It's complicated since I myself am not patriotic at all and I couldn't tell you for the life of me what it means "to be Russian", but it just. You can feel when a person thinks in stereotypes, you know? Like somewhere I saw something, I won't give a direct quote, but the main idea was that Russian/Slavic men all 100% have a breeding kink, and it was worded in a way that kinda felt like, hm, like a bit dehumanizing? Making them out to be these ooga booga barbaic cavemen? And yes, there is a lot to be said about Russian men, much of it very not good, and there is NOTHING wrong with writing a Russian character with a breeding kink, but it felt not nice to read that sentence, so just maybe after you write your piece do some introspection to make sure you weren't dipping into that kind of portrayal out of prejudice. If that's the effect you went for storytelling/your personal enjoyment cuz you like them ooga booga? I won't say a thing. Also the whole vodka/balalaika/ushanka/whatever bullshit, not entirely untrue, again, especially the vodka one, but if you write Nikto drinking kvas (which is non-alcoholic, okay, but still) or baltika beer instead of vodka, you'll make me happier, because it's like a signal "hey look I know a bit more about your culture that a James Bond movie intro showed me once". And in the next scene I'll forgive you even him riding a battle bear with vodka and balalaika in hand.

Coming back to the "barbarization" of Russian men in fics, it irks me a little when people lean too much into the whole Russian bandit/mafia stuff, and there are two characters that suffer from it, but each a little differently, the most. First is Nikolai, and while yes, he is a crime lord of sorts and he has that goddamn golden chain (which most Russian people or at least women find absolutely horrid and oh we do not come near men sporting those irl), I think people often write him... not intelligent enough? Too gruff and rough? He's an intellectual. Well-read, well-spoken, cultured. Level-headed. Whenever people write him too much like a 90s bandit, my heart breaks a little. But then again, I know Russian people that lean into the same set of stereotypes when writing him (but those same people have a lot of other uhhh xhenophobic tendencies that show when talking about other characters so I wouldn't rely on their views).

And then there's probably the biggest pet peeve of mine. Vladimir Makarov. Now, here is a big big disclaimer: YOU CAN WRITE WHATEVER YOU WANT IN YOUR FICS!!! We are already romantacizing military men that none of us (I hope) would approach irl; and if you want to write Makarov or Nikolai or whoever else in a certain way because that's what hits the spot for you, just do it. You want yandere Makarov or mummy issues Nikto or whatever else your heart desires? Go for it. I will be the first one defending your right to write it with a crowbar in hand, even if I myself would never read such a fic. So this here is entirely MY PERSONAL ISSUE. Deal? Deal.

I see it a lot here on tumblr (mostly in x reader fics) and it actually bothers me a lot, but when people write Makarov as this edgelord dark mafia boss. It just misses the point so much. He's an ultra-nationalist, a head of a PMC. They are not mafia, I would honestly argue that they're much worse. I get that they cast a very attractive man to play reboot Makarov and honestly the og Makarov too; I get that villains are the hot thing to be attracted to (sorry if I sound bitter, this is a separate problem I have with fandom and it doesn't matter rn), but Wagner (PMC that Konni is heavily based on) is a real life horror that is still existing even though there have been like structural changes. And they killed a lot of people and had enough power to threaten to overthrow the government so very recently. Rusich (another nationalist military group) is still active and doing horrible things and proudly reporting them online. Smaller far-right pigs are out in the streets doing horrible things. And a lot of it is (not so) subtly encouraged by the government. A lot of it is actively used by the government to gain more power, kill more people, instill more fear. It's a reality we live in, and to me seeing Makarov portrayed with none of that nationalism in sight and with all the allure of a dark romance novel mafia boss is... honestly, painful. Feels like a slap in the face, to be honest, and while I understand that this is the kind of nuance you can't just realize out of nowhere if it's not something you live around and that it's all fiction, it just is really, really hard to read for me. He is not just a complete crazy Joker-type freak, he's not a cool sexy mafia boss, he's a fucking nazi terrorist that can and will be paid by certain people in power to do their dirty work.

In the same route, but luckily I haven't seen it anywhere besides a certain group of Russian CoD fans (which is even more terrifying considering the political implications), but anyone who writes Barkov as a hero/in a positive light - fuck you. Just fuck you. He has interesting/attractive traits as a character, yes, I'm not saying you can't write about him, looking into him from different perspectives, simping for him if you want; but again, just spend some time reading up on recent history and politics that inspired the whole Urzikstan situation0 - and do it all with nuance. Or with a disclaimer that you don't support genocide at least, lol, cuz I'm telling you, I've seen people that made me scared.

However, once again, if you really want exactly that - ignore MY PERSONAL opinion and write it. I am just a gorilla on tumblr, my opinion is not the centre of the world. But what I do consider not a taste issue, but a deeper issue, is writing REAL PMCs and the likes of those in positive light. If anyone with a "Wagner OC" sees this post, just know, I would probably spit in your face irl. Making made-up Makarov go kiss kiss uwu or whatever irks me personally, but I can close the tab and let the author be; I'm sure many people have same opinion about Graves whom I write much more affectionately than some would prefer. But the real shit? That's a hard line.

A quick addition, back coming back to the "barbarization", just portraying Slavic characters being oh so very mesmerized by the !!!wonders of western civilization!!! is funny. There are definitely moments like this, but not as much as you think. Believe it or not, we actually don't live in bear caves.

This got way too long and dark, so let's finish on a lighter note. Russian characters celebrating some very non-Russian holidays (like Thanksgiving or catholic Christmas, even though the second one is not as bad) is funny, when it doesn't have much explanation (like them celebrating it with someone who actually does). "Suka blyat'" is funny, because it's often used where a simple "blyat'" would suffice.

Summarizing, here are general semi-short tips how to write Russian characters:

get your Russian proofread by someone who actually speaks it or at least don't fully rely on google translate. check your cases and genders!

especially if you use cusswords. it's an amazing characterization tool if you manage to use it right, so putting effort into it is always worth it

don't lean into stereotypes. they are partially true, but we kinda can tell when you do that intentionally and with nuance and when you don't know anything beyond them

be mindful about characters' identities and spend a little more time to make sure you are not writing someone else's stuff as "Russian". for the lack of better analogy, it's like mixing all Latin American identities together and writing them all as uhhh Mexican. we don't want to claim others' culture and others most definitely do not want to be erased again

be careful about the "barbarization" of your Slavic characters. sure, someone like Maxim "Minotaur" Bale won't strike you as the most intellectual individual (love you Max), but be intentional with it and don't just make every Slavic man go ooga booga but in Russian

didn't touch much on Russian/Slavic women, but be careful around the whole "money-hungry" stereotype

read up on political shit surrounding your characters. whether you like it or not, Russian people have been shaped by a lot of recent/current political happennings, so missing out even on general understanding of what your character witnessed/what their political views are can ruin a lot of characterization

Russia is fucking huge and does not consist just of Moscow and abstract "Siberia". the amount of cultures, confessions, nature stuff etc in the country is insane. not all Russians are orthodox Christians, but also - many of them are. and also - church was under fire in USSR so this is a separate layer of cultural shit you might want to consider

read Russian literature if you really want to write Russian characters a lot, it'll help you catch a feel of some very specific things like our yearning. it's a very specific thing that if you get right will give me a reading orgasm

same goes for Russian songs. also just don't underestimate the role of music in Russian life!

try to look up Russian "pop culture" (it feels kinda wrong to call it that, but I dunno how else to call it). if you can make your Russian character make an appropriate reference to a movie or say a Russian saying we actually use, it'll be amazing. but it's like level impossible i think so don't give yourself a headache over this, this is just that extra spice that will have me scrolling through your profle suspecting you're actually secretly Russian yourself

watch Soviet/Russian movies to get a better understanding of the vibe, not just what Hollywood portrays!

looking into architecture can be an interesting way to approach a character. we went through many different unique architectual styles, so if you're describing a character's home, it'll be a very cool move to specify what kind of apartment building they live in, for example

but most importantly remember: it's art you do for yourself first and foremost. don't take any of it as a strict guide you'll be punished for straying away from! we REALLY appreciate you writing for these characters, and you showed you put more thought into it than some of Russian comrades I know <3

and if you have specific questions, never be afraid to ask me or anyone else you know can help.

I hope I didn't scare you even more with this all, lol, I genuinely do appreciate you coming to me for advice, it means a lot when people show interest and effort. If you feel comfortable enough, send me/tag me in your fics, I'll be glad to read them and share with comrades that will enjoy them! From Russia with love ❤️❤️❤️🦍

[lemon-tree-in-paperbag]

Are you fucking stupid? How tf are individual artists from Russia, often ones who are oppressed by Putin's regime themselves eg because they're queer (as many people on tumblr are including one of the Russian artists whom I know personally) responsible for the actions of their government? Obviously I stand with Ukraine but you CANNOT use a dictator's actions as an excuse for xenophobia. That's bullshit

Hey! You are so brave for writing this anonymously☹️☹️💗

So umm, here's the thing! I am not a xenophobe! I am a victim of genocide that is being committed against my country and my people! Against me too!

And hey! I can hate my agressor! Because THEY are destroying my home and because of them my life was ruined! Wanna know how? I had to leave my home forever! I had to live under russian occupation, had to sit at home for three whole months, had to turn off every light as soon as the it got dark outside! I had to live in the cold ass basement! I hate to sleep sitting up for several days in a row with my nervous dog in my hands and i could do it only when my mom wasn't asleep!

I had to watch russian occupants in the eye when i was leaving my hometown, again, for like... forever!😚

I had to hear shelling every night and day! I had to hide my ukrainian language in my phone and delete all of my information from my phone so i wouldn't get shot!!!

I would think how am i, a 15 year old, will be saving my brother, if something happens to my mom! I would think for every day after that: do i got what it takes? If the russians WERE SHOOTING AT US would i protect my little 10 y.o. brother?

BUT HEEEY of course not all of them are bad! Of course you know some good russians:)

I am not dumb for hating people who fucked me up SO BADLY that i still can't leave my house (which i will have to leave behind, just as my hometown too) that i still get scared at the sound of thunder and planes!

If they are oppressed, please, let them be my guest and do something about it, but i do not fucking care. Queer doesn't equal good, too, actually, so your comment about that doesn't make any sense

Dictators actions didn't kill them! But his actions and their silence OR support kill my people. Hey, do you read news? Yesterday a man had to bury his whole family because of "dictators actions"

You know what's bullshit? You telling me what i can and can't do, meanwhile i still suffer every day, and my friends and my family too, because of russia

I don't want to know about them, i do not care about them, i don't want to hear about them. In my eyes they made ukrainian's life a living hell. And world doesn't care about this and tries to clear their name

Shut up and listen what victims have to say, you illiterate fuck

Sorry for the rude comment😚 fucking stupid of me to know what's really happening

My dear western friends! Do not act like this individual here:) listen to ukrainians!!

OR if you do think like this anonymous PLEASE DNI, i don't want you here

Xoxo

[thelittleukrainianwell-armedgirl]

"On 7th of January Ukrainian poet Maksym Kryvtsov and his ginger cat were killed by rssian army on the frontline. He was 33 years old. He was writing poems about the war and his loyal cat friend, while protecting his homeland. He could create so much if russia would not start this unjust horror.

Every time something inside me dies when I see news like this. Every Ukrainian from the beginning of their time in school learns about Executed Renaissance - when on the beginning of 20th century a lot of Ukrainian artists, writers, poets were chased and executed by Soviet Union for creating works in Ukrainian and expressing their national identity. Now it’s happening again, same evil, but under different flag. Besides occupation of our land russia also often talks about how Ukraine is fake country with fake language, they burn our books on occupied territories, mock us, our POWs for the fact we’re ukrainian. They were mocking us even before the invasion, I grew up with watching it on social medias myself. And now a lot of authors can’t create because of the war, russia kills them on frontlines, in their homes, russia purposefully targets objects of civilian infrastructure to leave us without heat and electricity. It pisses me off every time when I see russian “culture” being praised by the foreigners, knowing that it’s made on blood of other nations. Either 100 years ago or now. Because while russian authors can live and create, we have fight for our survival.

Before being killed by russia Maksym published his last poem, where he told about how his body will grow as violets after his death. Every time it’s hard to draw something about the war, I feel literally empty afterwards but I just felt it would be right thing to do. It’s awful that our artists have to go through all of this, so damn unfair, and I keep telling myself that justice is waiting for them but I can’t even imagine what has to happen, everything feels not enough.

Please support Ukrainian authors, until it’s too late."

(c) @ fate_221

[theconstitutionisgayculture]

This is a semi-long read with lost of different points and sources, so I can't really pick a few paragraphs that sum up the whole thing like I normally do. But I do want to share this one small part here: In a perverse way, Murphy and other Dems got the outcome they wanted. The fireworks at the White House gave them an excuse to replay their Russia Russia Russia hoax. Once again, they and their media handmaidens are dishonestly insisting that Trump is in Vladimir Putin’s camp. Like the original Russia hoax that consumed much of Trump’s first term, Russia 2.0 is born of political desperation. After months of not knowing how to respond to Trump’s fast, populist start to his second term, Dems up and down the food chain decided that the president’s refusal to write a blank check to Zelensky and pledge a military guarantee amounts to a gift to Putin. Desperate for relevance The logic is twisted beyond description, but any port in a storm will do. And with Trump off to the fastest start of any president in modern history, Dems are desperate to be relevant. It’s a mark of their bad judgment that Zelensky is their new hero. He and they have zero chance of persuading tapped-out Americans that an open-ended commitment of their tax dollars and possibly sending troops to Ukraine is sensible. Certainly Trump supporters didn’t vote for that, and the president himself campaigned on bringing the war to a fast end, not sending our army to fight Russians.

Never forget how much Democrats hate. They hate Trump, so they would rather bring us closer to WW3 than let Trump get a diplomatic win. They hate us, so they don't care if more Americans die in a war we shouldn't fight or in a nuclear exchange. They hate everything that isn't them, and even then, only when they all fall in line to whatever dogma a specific Democrat adheres to. Democrats are the party of hate and temper tantrums. Please keep this in mind the next time one of them smiles, pretends to care about you, and asks for your vote.

[argyrocratie]

"Catastrophe for somebody, salvation for others. Desertion is flooding Ukraine" by assembly.org.ua

"Imagine: the rulers start a war, and no one goes to it!"

Donations to support the authors are possible at this link. Many thanks everyone for such a great contribution!

(...)

The article "In the long hot summer, Ukrainian and Russian soldiers broke records for the growth of desertions", which was published by us on the first day of autumn, turned out to be just in time. (It is available in Russian, in English, in Spanish, in Italian.) A number of feedbacks came from both sides of the front. From discussions in local chats of Kharkov:

"I have a small observation, several busified ones, who haven’t been very critical of the authorities all this time, now quite console themselves with the thought that those at the top know better. While you are "free", your thoughts are within the framework of social currents and have the opportunity to wag. As soon as you get into a collective with outlined tasks, in most cases, your thoughts are in the same tunnel as everyone else. A busified, getting into a collective of previously busified, but already resigned to the situation, mentally assimilates with them, accepts their point of view, creating a comfort zone (swimming against the current is always uncomfortable). There he’s drawn into the topic and also begins to think that everyone else is a scoundrel and an evader, motivation appears. Until he gets into slaughter. There comes awareness and often SOCh [desertion]."

-

"I have three – a godfather and two deceased acquaintances who went voluntarily from the first days, but when they came to Kharkov, we drank together, no one shouted that I’m an evader, but on the contrary, that there’s nothing to do there. One, a volunteer too, is already abroad. He went for 2 weeks and has been there for half a year already. He said that just to take a rest..."

-

"A guy worked nearby, and he had a dog. So he dressed it up in a camouflage vest, a yellow and blue leash. And he himself walked around with all sorts of patriotic bracelets and tridents on his backpack. On the way to work, he was accepted by the TCR and he went to training. Then I see after 2-3 months he is hobbling. I thought he was drunk, but everything turned out to be much more interesting. After training, they were taken in tarpaulin trucks somewhere to the front line. And right when unloading the personnel, they got hit with something cassette-like. So, he wasn't drunk, his legs were cut up by shrapnel, and they hadn't pulled out all the shrapnel from the body yet. They sent him home from the hospital to finish his treatment, but didn’t write him off due to his wounds. And the guy said during conversation that he f*cked all this, he was going to go into SZCh. That's how quickly his surge of patriotism passed."

On September 9, we received a letter from Gorlovka, controlled by the far-right "Donetsk People’s Republic" since 2014:

"The saddest thing is that if you start telling people that soldiers need to desert the army and turn their weapons against those in power, people will widen their eyes and say, "Do you want 1917 to happen again? For brother against brother again, and for people to swell with hunger? It's better if we endure, otherwise it will get worse." We have photos of those wanted for escape on our streets. And the inscriptions: "Betrayed the republic, betrayed comrades, betrayed himself." I’ve heard the opinion that we have a lot of SOCh. But "a lot of" is a flexible concept. And their captures aren’t published here."

We will not cite the name of the person who spoke out.

(...)

Alas, after the end of the Vietnam War, such a type of anti-war activist as a military serviceman engaged in agitation and propaganda among his colleagues was practically forgotten. This is exactly what a Russian leftist who introduces himself as Sergey Thälmann wrote to us about on September 2. In addition to other important inside information, his letter helps us understand why there was no widespread desertion among Russian conscripts in the Kursk region, despite the fact that this seems to be the most logical choice for those poorly prepared for battle:

"I’m a conscript, there was no distinct choice. I actively educate soldiers and explain the injustice of the conflict. Of course, I’m not very fond of anarchism, but I believe that there’s no way without anarchists. Anarchism is the heart of communism, and Marxism is its mind.

I’ll say right away that there’s a strange atmosphere among conscripts – for some reason everyone wants to see the war. And when you start explaining that war is not a shooter, not a computer game, their desire immediately disappears. However, there are even such young people who defend Russian capital. They speak in the paradigm of "friends – foes" about Ukrainians and Russians. This is truly frightening. Many sign the contract, but... Taking into account both material and superstructural values. That is, with the desire to see the war. Consumer society has washed away the human brain so much that 19-year-old guys in Balashikha [near Moscow, – Ed.] want to go to Kursk. And it seems to me that such an atmosphere is not only here.

Well, and interesting observations: many officers are outright Nazis. For example, I talked to the communications chief of the mortar division of the 4th regiment. And he told me that I need to read... German thinkers of the 1930s. And there are hundreds of such ones here. Although there are adequate people... On the faces of the mobilized you can see more fear, despair. I talked to so many mobics here – not a single one wanted to fight. Some worked in a plant, some as an electrician. But conscripts are the opposite. Maybe because many are from the provinces, where life is boring and there are few bright emotions. Or maybe because in a consumer society, the consumer can consume absolutely any product provided. Even war becomes a commodity for sale.

In the companies there is also such a concept – military-political information. There they say absolutely terrible things. About how Ukraine almost burns people alive, and almost exclusively hits peaceful cities, ignoring military objects. As if the AFU isn’t an army, but... some small bandit who shoots at everything in sight. The main thing is that they hush up how in Russia, too, they pack people and forcibly send to war.

What can we get here, two concentrated capitals clashed with each other. Their most loyal dogs came out of their kennels)) Ukrainian capital is just as chauvinistic and concentrated in the form of financial capital as Russian. No government can be defended, they are both criminal, both thieves. And war is a war of slave owners for the strengthening and reinforcement of slavery. To support one of the slave owners in it means to be against the oppressed, that is, against the slaves. Against the serfs. Against the proletarians.

By the way, to those who say that Ukraine is a victim. Supporting a young and inexperienced robber in a fight with an old and fat one is supporting robbery as such and further robbery of one of them."

...

[atwoodsfemalefantasy]

as an ex LA resident, i really need to speak up right now.

if you need any more proof that Trump doesn't give a shit about this country, pay attention to what he's focusing on while part of the country is destroyed.

the LA fires should be considered some form of national crisis. last time i read, over 30,000 people had to evacuate. many people have lost their lives. the state is literally burning down. LA is doing everything it can to save its residents and put out the fire, but instead of helping them, Trump throws petty insults at the governor and spends his time on either malicious acts or idiotic ones.

this is a time in our country where the president should be supporting LA. the president should be helping LA get all the resources it needs to put out the fire. he should be holding meetings, meeting with Newsom, holding press conferences. instead, Trump writes it off and uses it as a way to insult democrats.

Biden went down to LA and met with people. he did what the president should do. he sent help to LA and did his best to have the government cover the cost of damages for the people who've lost everything (something Trump will almost definitely undo). but Trump is using this tragedy for his own selfish gain and to taint democrats.

thousands of people have lost their entire lives. while it's easy to think of LA as rich celebrities, as someone who once lived in LA, the vast majority of people are normal people like you and me. most of those residents can barely afford their home as it is, or their parents bought it for cheaper and passed it down to them. these residents don't have the money to start over. they can't rebuild. they can hardly even find new places to live. not only their houses are gone, but their kids' schools, their daycare centers, their grocery stores, their hospitals, their communities, their entire way of life. these people have only what they can carry on their backs. this is a natural disaster just like Katrina was. and yet, these people aren't getting the respect or help that they desperately need.

ugly rumors are being thrown around condemning the LA government for "wasting" their fire trucks by giving them to Ukraine, which isn't true. LA did give fire trucks to Ukraine, but those trucks were out of use, and would have been no help in this fire; they worked and helped Ukraine a lot, but they weren't helping LA.

republicans are wildly throwing out accusations accusing LA of "deserving" what it got. they're claiming the state government didn't take the correct precautions, but they do take precautions every year. in fact, they KNEW this year would be high risk, and they prepared all their resources to be ready for it. neighboring counties and states donated some of their trucks and firefighters to help. and even that wasn't enough. fires are just like any other natural disaster. it's not the people's fault they come (i mean global warming contributes, obviously, but that's not LAs state governments fault specifically).

republicans are even blaming the innocent people who's homes have been destroyed for choosing to live there. no one's shaming Floridians when hurricanes come around for...living in that state. republicans are blaming the people who've lost their homes and the LA government for choosing to build homes there. which, A) a tiny fraction of the people alive in LA today built those homes. B) again, no one's saying people don't deserve financial help because they "chose" to live in a high risk flood zone. C) the risk of fire WAS NOT THIS BAD when those people moved into those homes OR when those homes were built! until like 2020, LA was relatively very safe. i mean, earthquakes, yeah, but LA is built to withstand those. i lived there for years. we were never scared of fires. the fires never came down to the cities, if there were fires at all. this fire is not something those people expected.

overall, none of those people deserve what they're getting. and Trump and republicans blaming them are just mean spirited and cruel.

people are whining that their taxes might go up to help pay for this fire. i know that's unfortunate, but we are the lucky ones. we have our homes. we have our communities. this fire is just like a hurricane or a tornado or any other natural disaster. it isn't fun to have to pay more for something no one can control, but this is our duty to each other. when the unthinkable happens, we cannot let the suffering suffer all on their own; we have to do what we can to help.

Trump is doing nothing to help. we are facing a natural disaster the likes of which we haven't seen in at least a decade. this should be a cause the president of our country cares about. but it isn't.

because he doesn't give a shit about America. he cares about himself.

[is-the-fire-real]

'Reminder that "punch a nazi uwu" leftists utilize Nazi rhetoric to justify punching Jews.

It was never about punching Nazis; it was about getting social permission to punch.'

It was this very mentality that drove me away from considering myself a liberal anymore (I AM VERY MUCH LEFT LEANING, I DIDN'T DECIDE TO BECOME CONSERVATIVE JUST TO BE CLEAR. I just don't feel like those spaces have any intrinsic safety any longer). It feels like so much of western leftism has become about "punching up". I don't think it's about compassion or concern anymore, it's about finding the "right" targets. And so often that was just used as a way to excuse bigotry. I'm a goy but I noticed this on a personal level plenty with people identifying as feminists, they'd be perfectly okay saying something unquestionably sexist, as long as "white women" was attached onto the front. It's very much the same with shaming people over physical features that others may have, as long as the individual person is "bad enough" it doesn't matter if wide foreheads or big noses or acne are features many people have and would feel hurt by seeing them used as an insult, because they're only "really" directing it at "one of the bad ones"

So, I'm going to link to this piece again because it's been embarrassingly useful, and explains why I say things like "pretending to believe" despite their clunkiness. For new material, I hope you don't mind that you have accidentally triggered a massive unskippable cutscene, but you tapped into a few things I have been pondering and I'd like to take advantage of your observances to add my own.

Part of what you're discussing here, which I agree with, is that toxic slacktivists pretend to believe that they are Good People Doing Good Work. They are Bad People and their work is Bad Work, but if they all get in a group and pretend together that it's Good, then that's almost the same as being Good, right?

Another worthwhile aspect of what you're discussing is something I became aware of in the aftermath of the collapse of Occupy Wall Street. One commenter on a liberal blog I still follow lamented that mass protest never seems to accomplish anything, and how the millions of people who turned out for OWS protests should have affected more political change. Considering most of them could also vote, write to representatives, etc., something other than littering and arrests could've been done.

Another commenter pointed out that he had personally been at most of the anti-Iraq War protests, including the largest worldwide protest on 15 February 2003 (6-10 million estimated participants). But most of those protesters did not agree with each other. There were at least four major coalitions of antiwar protesters showing up then and thereafter. The ones he listed were:

"Just war" advocates who believed the Iraq War was unjust.

Total pacifists who believed all armed conflicts are unjust, and therefore the Iraq War is as well.

Right-wing bigots who believed a war might potentially benefit those they thought of as religiously or ethnically inferior and subhuman.

Xenophobes, both left- and right-wing, who believed "the US can't be the police of the world" and that any action taken outside USian borders was immoral.

Imagine four people with these beliefs in a room talking about the Iraq War... then bring up the war in Ukraine to them and see how fast the coalition falls apart.

"Well, the war for Ukrainian liberation is a just war," says the just-war advocate. The pacifist starts to scream "HOW COULD YOU DEFEND ANY ACTION THAT MIGHT LEAD TO CHILDREN DYING, YOU MONSTER!". The right-wing bigot says they support the war, too--on the side of the ethnically and religiously superior Russians. And then a left-wing xenophobe says we're wasting money that should be supporting American workers and uplifting Americans out of poverty instead of buying new bombs for Ukraine.

And your "antiwar" coalition collapses, with the pacifist wandering off to agree with the xenophobe while the just-war liberal and the right-wing bigot scream at each other pointlessly and without resolution.

This is one of the wisest breakdowns of human behavior I have ever discovered:

Any coalition of people is made up of many sub-coalitions who only temporarily agree on a single aspect of a single issue. Making sure the group does not collapse prematurely is the true, unsung labor of movement maintenance.

To be real, it's much easier to let one's coalition collapse and scream about how The Menz, or The CIA, or Greedy Capitalists, or The Jews artificially forced your group's collapse than it is to admit that one might just suck a big one at coalition building. This is especially true among leftists, who are sometimes anti-hierarchy and frequently fall for populist, anti-expert nonsense. Having a leader means you're suggesting someone should have authority, and a lot of leftists are allergic to that suggestion.

Moreover, though, a lot of "leftists" are "leftists" but only agree with one or two aspects of leftism.

To use your feminism example: I have absolutely seen feminists who think they can be misogynists so long as they say "white" before they say "woman". I mean, who can even argue? I have also seen feminists who think they can be gender bioessentialists so long as they're doing it towards "men" (a category which includes a lot of people who neither look like men, nor live as men, nor benefit from male privilege). I have seen feminists who think they can call themselves "trans allies" while consistently ignoring, degrading, and dismissing the concerns of anyone who isn't a binary trans woman. Etc.

The thing is, they are all feminists. What makes someone a feminist, at bottom, is the acceptance of and opposition to patriarchy. That's it. It's similar to how what makes a person a Protestant Christian is the acceptance of Jesus as their Lord and Savior--you might need to do one or two things to be considered a part of a specific branch of Christianity, but all you need is that one specific belief about that one specific idea. There's a lot of bunk about how "you can't be a REAL Christian unless you do X" just like there's bunk about how "you can't be a REAL feminist unless you do Y", and it's all bunk.

There are people who might be really bad feminists or Christians, but that's not the same as not being feminists or Christians.

So, the coalition of leftism has several sub-coalitions who actually despise each other. Here is my proposal for the sub-coalitions. (Please keep in mind that I am not defining groups by how they define themselves, but by the far more useful metric of their actions.)

Liberals who agree with leftist economic thought, but strongly disagree with leftist conclusions regarding violent revolution. Liberals do not have time for online arguments and superficial action. They are generally participating in protests, running for office, writing postcards to advocate for candidates, informing voters, and working within the system for positive change that alleviates suffering. They are pro-expert but opposed to a vanguard party due to its inherent authoritarianism.

Tankies, whose primary interest in leftism is authoritarian. They oppose capitalism and support violent revolution because they imagine themselves as the vanguard party who gets to control everything when the revolution comes.

Anarchists, whose primary interest is opposing hierarchy. They want to burn down the system because it is a system, and frequently become angry and defensive if you try to ask them any questions about what would be built out of the ashes.

Progressives, whose primary interest is opposing liberals. They also oppose capitalism; they are, like tankies, positioning themselves as the vanguard party because they are already in political power. What makes them Not Tankies is that they care more about sticking it to "the Dems" than they do about actually being the vanguard, opposing capitalism, or achieving anything of worth or meaning politically.

"Red fash", who used to be called "beefsteak Nazis". They say all the right things regarding violent revolution and economics/capitalism, but they only believe what they believe for the sake of their specific ethnic group and nation (frequently, white and USian, but this is extremely popular in Europe too). IOW a red fash wants the vanguard party to only have whites of a specific ethnicity in control of the revolution; they only want universal health care for "their" people, that sort of thing. Some red fash are actual Nazis cosplaying as leftists, but some are just really, really, REALLY bigoted leftists.

Whether we like it or note, the acceptance of armed, violent revolution as a Good Thing means that leftism has always regarded punching up and violence as a necessary component of leftist thought. This is not a perversion of Real Leftism. This is leftism. If you think revolution is good and necessary instead of a terrifying possibility, then you also think punching up is okay; it's just a matter of who is Up and who gets to punch.

Of the five sub-coalitions I described, only one has rejected violent revolution--and it's the one all the other leftists accuse of being right-wing. And interestingly enough, only liberals are habitually accused of secretly colluding with the right... when red fash are natural allies to the right, and when all other forms of leftists openly ally with right-wingers so long as they say the right things about economics. (See under: "After Hitler, us" leftists, left-wing Trumpistas who think they'll rule the ashes after Trump burns down the current system.)

And if you believe in violent revolution, then (let me be facetious for a second) what's the problem with making fun of your political enemies for being ugly? If we believe Steve Bannon is a Nazi, aren't we obligated to stop him by any means necessary, and doesn't that include mocking him for his alcoholism? Isn't mocking someone for their appearance and intrinsic characteristics mild compared to, say, threatening them with exploding cars covered with hammers? Or retweeting pictures of pitchforks and guillotines?

If we believe Ben Shapiro is an opponent to the revolution we accept is necessary and vital to the movement, then what's a little antisemitism in the name of the people? Don't we have to be bigots to oppose bigots? And--

--oh. There's that horseshoe bending round to the right again.

[toaarcan]

Rishi Sunak and the D-Day Disaster

Babes wake up, Rishi Sunak did a fuckup again!

Hokay, so, at time of writing, yesterday was the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings during World War II. This is a big deal for a lot of reasons, D-Day is one of the most significant events in the largest and most destructive war humanity ever fought, and this is likely to be the last major anniversary that the surviving veterans will be alive and well enough to attend.

Political leaders from the world over made their way to the Normandy beaches for a commemoration. Biden, Trudeau, Macron, Scholz, and Zelenskyy were present. Keir Starmer was there, as were King Prince Charles and Prince William, but the UK government proper was represented by Rishi Sunak and David Hameron.

Until suddenly it wasn't!

Let's run down everything (that I'm aware of) that went wrong!

As part of the British event, army paratroopers landed on the beach... and then had to reconvene in a tent to get their credentials checked by the French authorities. Because Brexit happened and we don't have free movement any more! Pro-Brexit nimrods have, predictably, complained about getting exactly what they voted for.

Once each nation's part of the proceedings were done, they were to reconvene at Omaha Beach for an International commemoration. Speeches, medals being awarded, that sort of thing. Except... Rishi Sunak was not present.

No, see, Rishi "The Least Elected PM Ever" Sunak had stayed until the end of the British event and then promptly fucked off back to England, snubbing the leaders of America, France, Canada, Germany, and Ukraine and leaving everything in the hands of the Hameron, his also-unelected foreign secretary that last rubbed shoulders with any International politicians when he was fucking everything up in 2016. Also, in the hands of his main rival, Starmer (Okay calling Starmer and Sunak rivals is a bit unfair, it implies Sunak has a snowball's chance in hell, which he does not).

Naturally, people were pretty fuckin' steamed about this, and put Rishi on blast for showing enormous disrespect to... literally everyone involved. Especially since this is right on the heels of Sunak proposing that they bring back National Service to "fill young British people with loyalty and honour."

Don't worry it gets worse.

Naturally, there are a lot of journalists with cameras present, and this means that we get to see images like these:

Image Description: Left to right, David Cameron, Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, and Joe Biden, standing in front of a partially cloud blue sky. Macron, Scholz, and Biden are lit by the sun, while Cameron appears to be in the shade.

Image Description: Keir Starmer sits, centrally-framed, among D-Day veterans in ceremonial dress uniforms. To the right of the frame sits Emmanuel Macron.

Image Description: Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Keir Starmer talking, with a photojournalist in the background aiming his camera at them. Both are smiling.

Quote Pippa Crerar, writing for the Guardian (You may remember her from that time she blew the lid off of Partygate!), Starmer is "already looking like a Prime Minister."

So this is really, really bad for Rishi. Britain has been keen to support Ukraine lately, and we've actually shipped a supply of our Challenger 2 tanks over to them for their use. The impact from this hasn't been as massive as you'd hope, largely because the British military has been absolutely gutted under the Tories, for reasons that I'm sure had absolutely nothing to do with all the financial support David Cameron got from Russians, but Britain has been trying to help.

Boris Johnson in particular liked to really stress the Ukraine point whenever he was losing control of the narrative, essentially making Ukraine's plight and his support for them a shield from criticism. And now, here's the leader of the opposition being photographed in a positive light with Zelenskyy. The optics are incredibly bad for Rishi.

But surely, Rishi had a reason why he had to zip back to British soil post haste? Maybe an emergency that he had to resolve?

No, he needed to record an interview with ITV, for his election campaign. That was it.

Well, interviews in election cycles become outdated pretty quickly. Normally a few days is enough to render them outdated. It must've been pretty urgent.

No, the interview is scheduled for release in six days' time.

That's an eternity in election season. There's a high chance that more than half of its content will be void by the time it airs.

As a reminder, we are four weeks from the big day. In fact, yesterday was exactly four weeks before election night. Time is very short.

Well, maybe this was the only time they could fit him in?

Nope, Paul Brand of ITV has confirmed that this was the date and time Rishi wanted, and they could've moved it to prevent scheduling conflicts!

So, how did a fuckup on such a grand magnitude happen? How did Rishi manage to create a clash between the 80th anniversary commemoration of an event with a specific date (6th June, 1944 is not hard to remember, my guy!) and the election that he called? Well that's very simple! He didn't want to be there at all.

Yes, it seems that Rishi had already told the French government a week ago that he wouldn't be attending at all. Someone seems to have convinced him that skipping the event entirely was a bad idea, but not enough for him to actually commit to it.

Image Description: A block of text reading "The French government was told a week ago that Rishi Sunak would not attend the D-Day 80th commemoration, Tory sources have confirmed. The message to Paris from his team was that he would be too busy campaigning in the general election to make the trip. The decision was reversed, and a short visit was the compromise, but it is extraordinary that an attendance by a Conservative PM, or any PM, was ever in doubt."

Rishi has denied this, however, so the whether it's true or Sunak has elected to not lie for once, well, that remains to be seen.

Quote John Healey, Labour's defence spokesperson, “Given that the prime minister has been campaigning on the idea young people should complete a year’s national service, what does it say that he appears to have been unable to complete a single afternoon of it?”

Conservative commentator Tim Montgomery called it "political malpractice."

And so, after thumbing his nose at half the world in order to pursue an already-foundering election campaign, Rishi Sunak decided that he needed to apologise. Via tweet.

It's been a very bad day for Rishi Sunak.

[mariacallous]

In the space of four days, the Russia-Ukraine war has dramatically shifted. The incursion of Ukrainian forces into Russia’s Kursk region has quickly turned into the largest territorial gain by either side since the successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall of 2022. As of this writing, it is still unclear whether thinned-out and poorly prepared Russian forces have been able to halt the Ukrainian advance, with reports of burning columns of Russian reinforcements reminiscent of the early days of the war.

The operation demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to achieve surprise and exploit sudden breakthroughs, something at which Russia has consistently failed since the start of its invasion. It is also the first time Russia has been invaded by foreign troops since World War II, showing Russians in no uncertain terms that the bloody war they unleashed against their neighbor has come home. Ukraine’s Western supporters seem to be on board, with the White House and European Union headquarters issuing statements that it was up to Ukraine to decide on the operation.

Previously, there had been much debate in Washington, Berlin, and among a wildly speculating media about the Kremlin’s supposed red lines that would set off World War III and nuclear Armageddon, with one of the lines being taking the war to Russia with Western weapons. The latter has now occurred. The belief in uncontrolled escalation led the Biden administration and some of its partners to severely restrict both the types of weapons delivered to Ukraine and their permitted range; Ukraine has not been allowed to use Western missiles to hit military installations on the Russian side of the border, for example. Part of the effect and purpose of the Kursk operation could be to demonstrate, once again, the fallacy of the red-line argument.

As the offensive unfolds and Kyiv stays mostly mum on events, it’s still too early to say what strategic goals Ukraine is hoping to achieve. One speculation that has gained a lot of traction is that it could lead to a quicker end to the war. The operation makes it clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine retains significant potential to inflict pain on Russia. And if Ukrainian forces can hold on and maintain control of Russian territory—for which they appear to be digging in as they bring in more equipment and build new defensive lines—it could strengthen Ukraine’s leverage in any potential negotiations to end the war. Already, Ukraine’s lightning foray into Russia undermines the widespread idea that Putin holds all the cards to dictate the terms of a cease-fire.

Kyiv seems to be signaling that leverage in negotiations is one of the goals of the offensive. An unnamed advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Washington Post: “This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia—this is what it’s all about.” This dovetails with recent hints by Zelensky that Kyiv was ready to negotiate. In an interview with BBC News in July, he said, “We don’t have to recapture all the territories” by military means. “I think that can also be achieved with the help of diplomacy.” Occupied Russia could be traded for occupied Ukraine: As former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt suggested on X, “Would an idea be for both states to retreat to within their respective recognized border?”

If Kyiv seems to be preparing the ground for potential negotiations—by seeking to strengthen its hand and publicly declaring its willingness—it is also a response to several factors.

One is growing war weariness among the Ukrainian population. Although the majority of Ukrainians favor fighting on until all the territories Russia has occupied since 2014 are liberated, the number saying that Ukraine could trade some of that territory for peace has been rising.

Second, there has been growing criticism, particularly in Western Europe and the global south, of the way Ukraine has repeatedly ruled out talks with Moscow. Major substantive issues aside, with the Kremlin apparently back-channeling openness to talks, Kyiv risked being seen as intransigent in preventing an early end to the war.

Finally, Ukraine’s strategic position is risky, even if it holds back Russia and maintains the flow of Western weapons. A victory by Donald Trump in the November U.S. presidential election and a sudden stop of U.S. aid cannot be ruled out, and even a Harris administration may have trouble cobbling together future support packages if the Republicans keep their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Zelensky may have decided to gamble to change and accelerate the dynamics of the war, including greater leverage if negotiations end up taking place sooner than anticipated.

Without much leverage, Kyiv has had to appeal to moral, normative, and legal arguments when communicating with its foreign partners about any peace short of full liberation. In the past, this has led to highly skewed negotiations. In the talks that produced the Minsk I and II accords in 2014 and 2015, Ukraine had such a weak hand that it had to agree to impossible terms: It could only get the Russian-controlled Donbas back if it allowed Moscow’s proxies to become part of the Ukrainian polity through local elections manipulated by the Kremlin, which would have given Moscow a permanent veto over Kyiv’s politics. Previously occupied and annexed Crimea was not even included in the discussion.

In March 2022, direct talks between Ukraine and Russia on the Belarusian border were not a negotiation but Russia’s delivery of surrender terms to Ukraine. In April 2022, negotiations brokered by Turkey in Istanbul also went nowhere: Russia’s price for ending its invasion was a considerable limitation of Ukrainian sovereignty and ability to defend itself. Since then, Russia’s proposal has been for Ukraine to permanently cede, in addition to Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts—including substantial parts that Russia has never occupied.

Not only has Ukraine lacked negotiation leverage, but Russia has also been successful in promoting, to audiences around the world, its land-for-peace approach to ending this round of the war. As Ukrainian counteroffensives after 2022 largely failed and the Russian war machine slowly but steadily took more territory in Ukraine’s east, another Minsk-type deal limiting Ukrainian territorial integrity and political sovereignty seemed to loom on the horizon.

Kyiv has not only changed the military narrative on the ground but may also be trying to change the narrative on negotiations—from a “land for peace” deal to a “land for land” deal. This puts Putin in a bind: Loss of control over parts of Russia proper is an enormous embarrassment for the Kremlin. But since their illegal annexation by Russia, the Ukrainian territories Putin seeks to keep are also part of the state territory he is obliged to defend. That said, in terms of Russian elite and popular perception, the restoration of Russia’s legitimate state territory will take precedence over continued occupation of recently conquered domains—especially if a land swap opens an avenue to the end of Western sanctions.

In a way, the new Ukrainian strategy may provide an opening for doves in the Russian leadership—assuming they exist and have any influence over Putin—to argue that the annexations should be reversed in order to restore Russia’s territorial integrity. As long as Ukraine can hold on to its captured territories in Russia, there will a strong pressure on Putin to return them under Moscow’s control.

None of this, however, changes the most fundamental problem with a negotiated outcome: the fact that Russia has ignored just about every agreement it has signed with Ukraine. But for Ukrainians and their Western supporters hoping for an end to the war, some intriguing possibilities may soon be on the table.

[sturionic]

i live half an hour from the canadian border (b.c., specifically). what can i do to support our neighbors during this time?

You are so lovely to ask, thank you. (Also, waving to you from BC!)

I know there's a lot of accelerationists online (some of them very understandably angry and hurt Canadians) who are saying anything you do doesn't matter if it's short of a violent revolution. This is not true, and distressed feelings of helplessness are only benefitting those in power. Any of the following would be so, so appreciated, in descending order of effort required:

Organize protests/demonstrations

Attend existing protests/demonstrations (There's one at a different Tesla dealership nearly every other day lol) with a pro-Canada sign

Call and write your representatives and SPECIFICALLY bring up Canadian (Panama, Greenland & Mexico too!) sovereignty. Show up to town halls. Organize sit-ins. Make sure they understand that you're taking the threats seriously, even if they try to wave it off. Be as annoying as humanly fucking possible. It's a good habit to get into regardless - personally, I have a regular reminder in my calendar reading "Annoy [My MP's name]" :)

Buy Canadian products and come vacation here! No, really. Most people I've talked to are not mad at individual Americans. Most of us understand that the idea of a Canadian invasion would be wildly unpopular with the American public (even Republicans) and don't blame you for what your asshole-in-chief is saying. There will be exceptions ofc and different Canadians who feel different ways, but the overwhelming sentiment I've heard is that American tourists are still very welcome, provided they don't support threats to our sovereignty

Keep yourself informed on the situation by following Canadian news (and just international news outlets in general - see this post for an explanation on why this is necessary)

TALK TO YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY. Do NOT let anyone tell you this is a joke, Canadians are overreacting, Trump is just blustering, it's impossible for XYZ reasons, etc. etc. etc. <- These are strategic fascist talking points that widen the Overton window. If you hear anyone saying the above, shut it down IMMEDIATELY. I have written a post here that gives some pointers for talking to people around you about politics if you're nervous about it!

I hate to have to put it this way, but Americans need to understand - for their own sake, as well as ours - that if NATO is violated in this way, the USA is going to have bigger problems than just a Canadian insurgency. I get that it's hard to focus on one specific problem right now, that you guys are being bombarded with scary things, but we're at the point now where Americans need to start paying attention internationally: to Canada, Greenland, Panama, Mexico, Ukraine, all the ways the US government is telegraphing its intent to shatter the current world order.

Thanks again for your kind ask, and again, you're always welcome here. BC is lovely this time of year. If you're ever in this neck of the woods DM me and I'll take you out for coffee :)

[legilimensims]

time for a political word salad 🥗

the shame i feel, as an italian. i’ve been bitching and moaning about this to my mother the entire morning - i think she considered clubbing me at some point - and my position is: italy has always been and always will be the peter pettigrew of the world. always in the middle (fake middle mind you), always slithering at the feet of the “powerful” bad guy du jour, like a little fearful slave eager to please, afraid of the consequences of not doing so. it’s the mussolini way. giorgia meloni is no different. she wants power. she wants recognition. she hates the EU but at the same time she craves its leadership. she hates/envies the USA but she loves trump. she has it in her head that italy (aka herself) has to be the country leader in peace agreements. she has deluded herself into thinking that italy (aka herself) has the sort of international influence to be in a position of leadership by ourselves.

this is why she didn’t take a firm position against trump yesterday and instead made a vague-ass statement about unity and a summit between EU & USA blah blah. it’s all about power. giorgia meloni couldn’t simply side with the world behind ukraine, her name disappearing in a sea of worldwide leaders no, she needed to stand out. she wants to be praised. she craves validation and attention. in italian we say “l’europa le sta stretta” meaning literally “europe fits her too tight”. she played nice with biden (god do i miss him), always staying in her lane, but now the mask is off. then we have matteo salvini. salvini is unfortunately italy’s vice PM. salvini loves putin, he praised him publicly throughout the years, his party has a history of receiving money from russia. salvini also loves trump, trump is everything salvini wants to be. like meloni, salvini craves power and fame - he’s a useless nobody kissing the worldwide far-right ass to feel like he counts, desperately begging for the attention of his idols trump and musk.

i won’t bother writing about antonio tajani, our minister of foreign affairs. he’s berlusconi’s school, useless. spineless. or our nonexistent left coalition full of “pacifinti”(fake pacifists) still going on about europe funding “escalation”, and yapping about “peace treaties” without sending weapons to ukraine. i’m tired of them.

moving on. i thought this was it, this is why italy is YET AGAIN a victim of its leaders’ personal ambitions. but i was reading here and there on twitter earlier and realised i missed a key component of this clusterfuck: trump’s tariffs. there’s this man called claudio borghi. borghi is an asshole, a politician from salvini’s party, he hates europe, hates NATO, he loves putin, loves trump, and he’s an antivaxxer (of course). everything i hate in a person. he released an interview to idk which newspaper with this interesting bit:

Q: Wouldn't this risk isolating us from all the other European countries? Borghi: «I think more of a situation like this: Italy dealing with the US, perhaps, and even managing to snatch a total exemption from tariffs, while Germany and company find themselves stuck with them. Can you imagine the rush that would be unleashed to come and invest in our country? Believe me, in this historical moment we have an opportunity in our hands that is hard to even imagine…».

so…this is where we’re at. italy reduced AS ALWAYS to sucking a dictator’s orange balls for personal and economic gain on the skin of ukrainians dying for their country.

and then i wonder why our reputation worldwide is shit. we are beyond the lowest realms of decency. i’ll never stop being ashamed of this.

anyway

and have a nice saturday.

[coolcarsntrucksngunsnusa]

DEMOCRATS ARE TO BLAME

A common criticism of Volodymyr Zelensky’s disastrous Friday performance in the Oval Office is that he failed to read the room.

Actually, the Ukrainian president did read a room — but it was the wrong room.

Before meeting Trump, Zelensky met with anti-Trump Democrats who advised him to reject the terms of the mineral deal the president was offering, according to Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.).

“Just finished a meeting with President Zelensky here in Washington. He confirmed that the Ukrainian people will not support a fake peace agreement where Putin gets everything he wants and there are no security arrangements for Ukraine,” Murphy’s office posted on X at 11:15 a.m. Friday.

He attached a picture of Zelensky at a conference table, with Murphy seated on the opposite side.

Forty minutes later, Zelensky arrived at the White House, where Trump met his car, smiled, shook his hand and walked him into the Oval Office.

ARROGANT INGRATE

The meeting, as the world now knows, quickly went off the rails and ended with Trump angrily ejecting the arrogant ingrate from the White House.

The earlier meeting with Dems undercuts wild claims that Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance staged an ambush. In fact, it was Zelensky who came with an ulterior motive.

The purpose of the meeting was to sign the mineral agreement he and Trump representatives had negotiated. He had twice refused to sign it after promising to, and thanks to Murphy, we now know he had no intention of signing it Friday.

By listening to the nakedly partisan advice of Dems instead of dealing forthrightly with the current president, Zelensky betrayed his countrymen and, for now at least, leaves them without the military and diplomatic protection that only America can provide.

Good luck counting on Britain, France and the rest of Europe to save Ukraine. Maybe the Germans will send strudel.

In a perverse way, Murphy and other Dems got the outcome they wanted. The fireworks at the White House gave them an excuse to replay their Russia Russia Russia hoax.

Once again, they and their media handmaidens are dishonestly insisting that Trump is in Vladimir Putin’s camp.

Like the original Russia hoax that consumed much of Trump’s first term, Russia 2.0 is born of political desperation. After months of not knowing how to respond to Trump’s fast, populist start to his second term, Dems up and down the food chain decided that the president’s refusal to write a blank check to Zelensky and pledge a military guarantee amounts to a gift to Putin.

DESPERATE FOR RELEVANCE

The logic is twisted beyond description, but any port in a storm will do. And with Trump off to the fastest start of any president in modern history, Dems are desperate to be relevant.

It’s a mark of their bad judgment that Zelensky is their new hero. He and they have zero chance of persuading tapped-out Americans that an open-ended commitment of their tax dollars and possibly sending troops to Ukraine is sensible.

Certainly Trump supporters didn’t vote for that, and the president himself campaigned on bringing the war to a fast end, not sending our army to fight Russians.

A GIFT TO PUTIN

Zelensky, who privately agreed to the terms, has every right to demand a security agreement — up to a point. But he didn’t get one and his decision to respond by insulting the president and vice president, interrupting them and waving off their responses, was madness.

As Trump noted, the heated jabs made for great television, but it was a disaster for Ukraine and a gift to Putin.

Zelensky had an opportunity to apologize to Trump in a later interview with Brett Baier on Fox, but repeatedly refused to do so, saying “I’m not sure we did something bad.”

ADD IGNORANCE TO HIS LIST OF FLAWS

Unfortunately for him, there is an audience egging him on. Beyond Washington Dems, the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, wrote on social media that “the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge. We stand by Ukraine.”

Sure, Europe stands by Ukraine — and will continue to stand by as it gets carved up by Putin’s war machine.

‘Ukraine Is Our Ally’

Murphy and other Dems are no better, celebrating Zelensky’s stupendous failure as if it were a victory. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer wrote that “Trump and Vance are doing Putin’s dirty work” and the always repellent Sen. Adam Schiff called Trump a “coward.”

New York’s daffy governor, Kathy Hochul, who seems to pick a daily fight with Trump, added her two cents, saying “Ukraine is our ally. Putin is not. It’s not complicated . . . This president may not stand with democracy, but we will.”

Oh, please. Hochul can’t even keep the peace on New York’s crime-ridden streets.

Meanwhile, Zelensky’s rejection of the mineral deal means there will be no American interests and businesses in Ukraine, which, as Trump repeatedly said, would help deter Russian attacks.

Moreover, Trump said a final settlement would require Putin to return some of the lands he has taken, and that France, Great Britain and others likely would station peace-keeping troops in Ukraine.

All that should have given Zelensky more than enough confidence to go forward, or at least to raise any concerns in private. Instead, he used a friendly meeting in front of the press to complain that no agreement was sufficient without an American security guarantee, despite being told repeatedly none would be included in the minerals deal.

He’s right that Putin can’t be trusted but he’s a fool for rejecting Trump’s plan and counting on Europe and feckless Dems to help him get a better deal from Trump.

As the president reminded him three times, “you don’t have the cards” to make the demands he was making, but Zelensky ignored the advice and the facts.

What a tragic mistake.

[anoonimthepoorchad]

January 2nd, January 8th and January 13th. It feels like the 2024 year has been going on for more than three weeks already, with each week marked by a massive full scale air raid attack of russia on Ukrainians.

Each night begins the same: a message at around 2 am, reporting from 8 to 11 missile carrying planes getting off at russian airports and moving towards the shooting positions. Then at 6 am the full attack begins. Guided missiles swarm in the air, and around 6:30 am several sonic missile planes also launch the deadly weaponry towards the cities. Our air defenders do their best to protect us and at around 9 or 10 am everything ends.

This feels like nights of hell when you live far away from the frontlines. Cities like Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kherson and thousands and thousands located around the frontlines experience this everyday. But these nights become a nerve-wracking challenge for citizens of every corner of Ukraine (if we don't count all the other air raids which are less full-scaley, less weaponry is launched then). Kyiv, Kharkiv, Myrhorod, Lviv, Khmelnytsky and other cities in the west, north and centre-east of Ukraine have been targeted in these recurring air raids.

About the weaponry, these air raids are different from usual ones because all kinds of weaponry is used by russians during these. Sonic ballistic missiles "kinzhal" or daggers, which you can hear breaking your city apart just two or three minutes after they were launched thousands of kilometers away. These are only destroyed by the Patriot air defense complexes and it's hard af to do so. Our defenders are showing incredible precision but the debris still damages buildings and murders people. Ballistic missiles and guided missiles that can change their direction at any time, even circle around different cities until they are right above the targets. Shaheds, the kamikaze drones. All launched from different parts of russia and from occupated parts of Ukraine.

Personally, I have no right to complain as a person living in well-protected Kyiv, but hearing explosions very close to your home, hiding on the cold floor of the corridor and shaking at the thought that you live on the high enough floor to die in the debris if your home is hit... all this makes me lose sleep at night after I see the dreaded message at 2 am. It hasn't been 2 weeks since the new year but it feels like it's been ages. You try to find new beginnings and motivation to live, but you can't really shake off the feeling that tonight you were lucky to survive but you might not be the next time.

Do I have to repeat how important it is to donate to the Ukrainian army? Do I need to repeat that it's all russians, again and again, killing my people, ruining my home, while others "forgive" them for their horrible deeds? Do I have to say this again, that I'm only here writing this because of all the weaponry given to and bought by Ukraine, due to the support from different countries, and most importantly all the blood and lives of my people given for us to live? What can I do to stop this?

Please, if you read this far, help us survive and win, so that we never have to go through nights and days like these again.

[locustheologicus]

Metallica’s For Whom the Bell Tolls: An Anti-War Polemic

This song is Metallica’s take on Hemingway’s novel of the same name. Hemingway writes about the Spanish Civil War and in doing so offers a reproach of modern warfare. As I think of the deepening conflicts and war in the middle east and the Ukraine and other conficts that seem to be escalating I think it would be good to hear the words of caution within the warring style that Metallica offers especially with the amazing use of the bass by the great Cliff Burton. Cliff was an amazing talent but he unfortunately died tragically after the following album “Master of Puppets.” 

The lyrics allow you to just imagine what the combatants are going through within the fevered pitch that is provided by this headbanging music. 

Take a look to the sky just before you die It's the last time you will Blackened roar, massive roar, fills the crumbling sky Shattered goal fills his soul with a ruthless cry

Stranger now are his eyes to this mystery Hears the silence so loud Crack of dawn, all is gone, except the will to be Now they see what will be, blinded eyes to see

I feel that there is a certain irony here as I recall the way this song made me feel as a teenage boy in the late 1980′s. On the one hand this music moves you towards feelings of anger and passion that bring a sense of deep meaning and purpose for an adolescant youth who craves for simple answers. Almost like a desire to be a unreflectively part of something. Yet the words (which one can eventually reflect on later) force you to pause and consider what it is that you are actually a part of. War and violence has the ability to get the person to find a sense of tribal meaning and this again is what many young men crave. The desire to march off into some sense of victory and glory. But the lyrics then has you think, what is it all about? what is ultimately achieved and why did we value such methods of destruction.

With the escalation of war and violence we may need to be more attentive to the prophetic words etched by Hemingway, sung by James Hetfield, and played by Metallica. This is the hope expressed in Scriptures:

For from Zion shall go forth instruction, and the word of the LORD from Jerusalem. He shall judge between the nations, and set terms for many peoples. They shall beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks; One nation shall not raise the sword against another, nor shall they train for war again. - Isaiah 2:4

Pope Francis recently reflected on the theme of war having reflected on the one year anniversary of the October 7th Hamas attack on Israel which started the current war in the middle east. In the reflection he calls on the international community (all of us) to “end the spiral of revenge” which calls to mind the teaching of Bishop Helder Camara. The belief that violence ultimately begest violence and that peace is the path that we Christians are called to promote. 

Tomorrow marks one year since the terror attack on the population in Israel, to whom I once again express my closeness. Let us not forget that there are still many hostages in Gaza. I ask for them to be released immediately. Since that day, the Middle East has been plunged into a condition marked by increasing suffering, with destructive military actions continuing to strike the Palestinian people. This people is suffering very much in Gaza and in other territories. Most of them are innocent civilians, all of them are people who must receive all necessary humanitarian aid. I call for an immediate ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon. Let us pray for the Lebanese, especially for those who live in the south, who are forced to leave their villages.

I appeal to the international community, that it may work to end the spiral of revenge and prevent further attacks, like the one recently carried out by Iran, that could make that region fall into an even greater war. All nations have the right to exist in peace and security, and their territories must not be attacked or invaded, their sovereignty must be respected through and guaranteed by dialogue and peace, not by hatred and war.

[alcestas-sloboda]

I mean, I don't like cluster munitions, but then again I don't like mines either (for about the same reasons), but it's impossible to deny the good mines have done for defending Ukraine

They pose a danger down the line, but russia poses a danger now, and I'm a hell of a lot angrier about russia using mines in Ukraine than Ukrainians using them in their own land

I'm not exactly happy the US has cluster munitions, but kind of like with all of the military industrial complex here it's like... well... let's at least do some good with it and give it to the people fighting for freedom

So no, I don't want to see cluster munitions used, but like... russia could just fuck off back into their own borders and this would all be over

I'm not about to condemn Ukrainians for using them. We need to just hand over what it takes to win this war

Just gets tiring when it's crickets over a major dam being blown, but the idea of giving certain weapons is treated as just unforgivable

Yeah... they're bad weapons, that's kind of what all weapons are... bad stuff that exists just to kill, but uh... I kind of care more about the missiles hitting residential buildings than I do if Ukraine deploys a weapon against valid military targets

Sorry about the long ask, just annoys me

no you are absolutely right and cluster munitions were forbidden for a good reason but again this war has shown us that the enemy (russians) don’t give a damn about rules of war. they have broken every law possible starting from using the cluster munitions to bombing civilian infrastructure, hospitals and using nuclear blackmail. so what really pisses me off is exactly what prompted you to write this ask: for some reason only Ukrainians should follow the rules, only Ukrainians, who, I must remind you, are protecting their land, that are being supervised under a microscope, but not russians. HRW and other similar organisations are genuinely writing articles on how Ukrainians endanger Ukrainian civilians? no, the only people who are endangering Ukrainian civilians are russians, and as someone said: russian tanks on Ukrainian land is so much more dangerous than cluster munitions in the hands of Ukrainian soldiers who are liberating their land.