#also hurricanes are predicted to be that this year so

[arctic-hands]

I need a NOAA radio

[theaologies]

spinning my chair around and sitting in it backwards: GOOOOOD MORNING CLASS

FIRST AND FOREMOST: this is not a panic post. It’s an informational preparedness post. Don’t panic. Just be prepared for this like you’d be prepared for an earthquake but you know it’s coming and it’s wet.

I’m 30, lived in Central Florida for the first 26 years of my life, and have experienced more hurricanes and tropical storms than you can imagine. Never in my life did I think I would have to discuss HURRICANE SAFETY again after moving to LOS ANGELES from FLORIDA and yet HERE WE ARE-

(This information is accurate as of 8/17 at 9am PST)

SO models are still early but it seems like as of last night, Pacific Hurricane Hilary is rapidly intensified AND has shifted its track pretty severely inland. Originally SoCal was predicted to get some bands off the coast but this does NOT seem to be the case anymore

As our good friend Jim Cantore mentioned above, if Hilary DOES make landfall in SoCal, it will be the first tropical storm to do so since 1939. Fucking yikes.

THE GOOD NEWS:

It isn’t looking like Hilary will make landfall anywhere as a strong hurricane. If it makes landfall in central Baja it looks like it’ll be a Cat 2 which isn’t great but still- better than the Cat 5 it’s currently strengthening to.

As for SoCal, we’re not predicted to get anything over a Tropical Storm. And mountains tear up tropical cyclones like crazy. It’ll (probably) be weak and, wind wise, no worse than the Santa Ana’s

THE BAD NEWS:

Our Cone of Uncertainty is currently pretty wide- this fluctuation matters as it determines which side of the storm hits us. Is this significant? Yes. The right side of a Hurricane is considered the “dirty” side- it’s the side that is most likely to produce severe weather, such as severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. It’s still too early to determine what side will affect us the most but it’s something to keep in mind.

Also, I can’t speak for the rest of SoCal, but I would not bet on the LA infrastructure doing well even with a weak tropical storm. Which is why I have brought you here today, to run down the IMPORTANT HURRICANE CHECKLIST

NOTE: I made this several years ago for FLORIDA so not all of it will be accurate to SoCal. Most of us live in apartments and have no say over tree trimmings and the likes. If the storm is feeling like it’s going to get bad, I would recommend moving important things and electronics away from windows and hanging out in areas of the apartment that have the least amount of windows. I don’t think boarding up windows or anything will be necessary but here’s information if you need/want it

ANOTHER NOTE: if you have the means, please check up on your unhoused neighbors and immediate community groups that do so, as well. As always, they will be the ones most affected by severe weather. Tarps, anything that rises up off the ground, waterproof bags, etc would be good to grab for them. I am not an expert here and would recommend following the lead of your community groups that work with your unhoused neighbors to find out what will be needed most.

I don’t at all think we’ll see any shutdowns so if the rain does get bad be prepared for dangerous driving conditions. I know it’s dangerous to drive any time it rains in LA but, you know. The Weather Channel isn’t predicting a TON of rain at the moment (for LA) but, just like our winter/spring this year, be on the look out for flash floods.

And again, this is all JUST IN CASE. It’s better to be prepared than not. SoCal’s infrastructure is not at all prepared to handle a tropical event so who knows! Anything is possible. If I was in Florida I wouldn’t at all be worrying about this but I’m not anymore and our wet winter absolutely fucked our roads in LA so I’d rather everyone be safe than sorry.

I’m sure it’ll all be fine and now you just have more safety information, which is never bad! Because frankly climate change is very real and I would not be surprised to see this happening more and more in the coming years. And it does have me worrying that El Ni��o this year is going to be worse than we imagined.

[bamgyw]

right, so he won.

we tend to be cynical and laugh him off, but it’s so painfully clear and scary how this ignorant fucking narcissist cosplaying as the poor man's idea of a wealthy man could become president of the united states—not once, but twice.

a man who seems barely literate, whose statements have been nothing but blatant, poorly constructed lies, yet he’s secured power. again. and while i can’t fully predict the implications, i know they don’t look good.

i fear for american citizens trapped in a dystopian neoliberal state where food is made of plastic and a lack of money can cost you your life on a hospital gurney.

i fear for europe, also scarred by fascism and blindly following the united states. every week for the past year, our prime ministers have appeared on television, warning us to prepare to defend our values in coming wars, most, if not all of which, are initiated by the u.s.

i fear for the palestinian people, undergoing a fucking genocide at the hands of israel—a state powered by the immense machinery of the american arms industry. if the u.s. withdrew its support, israel would be forced to stop. they're nothing. a flimsy geopolitical construct fuelled by pure evil. but like israel, the united states is a settler colony, built on the displacement, massacre, and erasure of the people who originally lived there. they both justify their actions as a divine mission for the land they claim was promised by god. imperialistic bullshit.

i fear that palestinians have lost their last glimmer of hope and the faint promise of a two-state solution that even kamala harris claimed to defend. flawed and half-hearted as it was, it at least held the possibility of a ceasefire.

i fear for trans and racialized people in the united states, who have become primary targets of brutal, baseless hate speech, a rhetoric now normalized among more than half the american electorate.

i’m not going to take the easy route—the classist one—and say that a bunch of uneducated rednecks voted for another uneducated redneck.

truth is, we’re living in unsafe times, and that fear makes us vulnerable to hoaxes, propaganda, and manipulation. education was supposed to be the antidote—the tool to help us see when politicians are lying, when a vulnerable group is scapegoated for society’s problems. and yet, here we are, repeating history. it’s been less than a century since world war II, and a fascist has been voted into power.

i don’t know why i felt the need to go off on this tangent, but this issue is global, and it’s genuinely terrifying. i don’t trust our politicians. it feels like being abandoned by a parent—the state, which is supposed to protect us, leaving us to fend for ourselves. we've seen that with hurricane milton, with the floods in valencia.

many of us have never had to experience extreme poverty or coexist with death, so it’s easy and fun to live blissfully unaware. but we’d better hope it stays that way. and i also hope that instead of letting our fear turn into paralyzing anxiety, we can make the effort of turning it into determined, militant anger.

and yeah… that’s about it, i think. there’s a lot i haven’t mentioned, a lot of people, a lot of rights lost today. but i haven’t slept. i’m really tired. gonna sleep bye.

[tapwater118]

tpot 13 spoilers, i say a lot here

hopy mopy that was a good episode. love it when tpot decides to get all cinematic. lots of things to talk about

having the cold open and stinger be about firey and leafy is very very interesting (“dreamier island” is adorable idgaf). didn’t really expect them to build off their cameo from tpot 8 like this, they’re obviously setting up another side plot (likely to replace the robot flower one that just ended). i don’t think leafy died in the storm, that’d be too straightforward for that much screen time. i think one got her, for what i don’t know. what kind of deal would she take?? i must think about this more

also speaking of one what the fuck. she moved a whole goddamn hurricane over to the hotel??? she can do that?? ok so maybe she didn’t make deals with bomby and bell, she’s just stealing the eliminated contestants for some reason. AND SHE WANTS TWO GONE DUDE. scary. probably the biggest surprise was her making it so two exitors join instead of one, which reads to me as if she wanted pencil specifically to join for some reason. interesting interesting interesting

can i just say there are some super interesting freesmart interactions here. pencil’s overjoyed to see book and ice cube (cause she’s been trapped in four for four years) but those two looked EXTREMELY uncomfortable to see her. most interesting is how despite still being avoidant of book ICE CUBE DELIBERATELY GETS HER AWAY FROM PENCIL. SHES WILLING TO PUT HER GRIEVANCES WITH BOOK ASIDE TO PROTECT HER LIKE THAT. what the fuck happened between them. idfb i need you to happen please

i didn’t really have any predictions for the eliminations this time around, barf bag i somewhat expected but needle was a bit of a surprise. i thought tpot 12 would’ve made people like her more? oh well. kinda hoped for more gb and pencil interactions from her being on cloudyay but i guess we’ll have more time for those later. liy being on 🎼 is nice cause she has her old friends there, works as a nice fill in for needle’s niche

the old robot flower is back! by the deal with one uh oh. i actually really like how they handled this, everyone else is happy the old her is back but she sounded really hesitant about it because she still has the same issues from before!!! nothings been fixed for her!!! she still has that want to be like flower dude. that plot line better not be completely dead or else. (also thank you tv for the flower cameo ur great. also tv is talking in mashed up clips again letsgooooooooo)

i think i actually need to watch this episode again, there’s so many little details sprinkles everywhere omga. anyway i voted for pin and book and you should too. peace out

look at her she angy

[nasa]

Why Isn’t Every Year the Warmest Year on Record?

This just in: 2022 effectively tied for the fifth warmest year since 1880, when our record starts. Here at NASA, we work with our partners at NOAA to track temperatures across Earth’s entire surface, to keep a global record of how our planet is changing.

Overall, Earth is getting hotter.

The warming comes directly from human activities – specifically, the release of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. We started burning fossil fuels in earnest during the Industrial Revolution. Activities like driving cars and operating factories continue to release greenhouse gases into our atmosphere, where they trap heat in the atmosphere.

So…if we’re causing Earth to warm, why isn’t every year the hottest year on record?

As 2022 shows, the current global warming isn’t uniform. Every single year isn’t necessarily warmer than every previous year, but it is generally warmer than most of the preceding years. There’s a warming trend.

Earth is a really complex system, with various climate patterns, solar activity, and events like volcanic eruptions that can tip things slightly warmer or cooler.

Climate Patterns

While 2021 and 2022 continued a global trend of warming, they were both a little cooler than 2020, largely because of a natural phenomenon known as La Niña.

La Niña is one third of a climate phenomenon called El Niño Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO, which can have significant effects around the globe. During La Niña years, ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean cool off slightly. La Niña’s twin, El Niño brings warmer temperatures to the central and eastern Pacific. Neutral years bring ocean temperatures in the region closer to the average.

El Niño and La Niña affect more than ocean temperatures – they can bring changes to rainfall patterns, hurricane frequency, and global average temperature.

We’ve been in a La Niña mode the last three, which has slightly cooled global temperatures. That’s one big reason 2021 and 2022 were cooler than 2020 – which was an El Niño year.

Overall warming is still happening. Current El Niño years are warmer than previous El Niño years, and the same goes for La Niña years. In fact, enough overall warming has occurred that most current La Niña years are warmer than most previous El Niño years. This year was the warmest La Niña year on record.

Solar Activity

Our Sun cycles through periods of more and less activity, on a schedule of about every 11 years. Here on Earth, we might receive slightly less energy — heat — from the Sun during quieter periods and slightly more during active periods.

At NASA, we work with NOAA to track the solar cycle. We kicked off a new one – Solar Cycle 25 – after solar minimum in December 2019. Since then, solar activity has been slightly ramping up.

Because we closely track solar activity, we know that over the past several decades, solar activity hasn't been on the rise, while greenhouse gases have. More importantly, the "fingerprints" we see on the climate, including temperature changes in the upper atmosphere, don't fit the what we'd expect from solar-caused warming. Rather they look like what we expect from increased greenhouse warming, verifying a prediction made decades ago by NASA.

Volcanic Eruptions

Throughout history, volcanoes have driven major shifts in Earth’s climate. Large eruptions can release water vapor — a greenhouse gas like carbon dioxide — which traps additional warmth within our atmosphere.

On the flip side, eruptions that loft lots of ash and soot into the atmosphere can temporarily cool the climate slightly, by reflecting some sunlight back into space.

Like solar activity, we can monitor volcanic eruptions and tease out their effect on variations in our global temperature.

At the End of the Day, It’s Us

Our satellites, airborne missions, and measurements from the ground give us a comprehensive picture of what’s happening on Earth every day. We also have computer models that can skillfully recreate Earth’s climate.

By combining the two, we can see what would happen to global temperature if all the changes were caused by natural forces, like volcanic eruptions or ENSO. By looking at the fingerprints each of these climate drivers leave in our models, it’s perfectly clear: The current global warming we’re experiencing is caused by humans.

For more information about climate change, visit climate.nasa.gov.

Make sure to follow us on Tumblr for your regular dose of space!

[dadvans]

reasons u should watch 9-1-1

feast for the whump girlies in the shape of one evan buckley, who simply wants to be loved and inexplicably isn't

like he's literally unloved in a my sister's keeper never let me go kind of way and the fact that it takes 4 seasons to get there is frankly insane

somehow can sensitively dive into things like post partum depression while also doing cursed amulet storylines. that's camp, babey!!!!!

everyone in this show is so bad at their job that it will make you feel better about your own workplace performance

guy complains that it costs LA taxpayers $88k to put a woman through fire academy but then we never think about those LA taxpayers when there's a 9.0 earthquake or a tsunami or a hurricane or a volcanic fissure opening up in the middle of the city (the last one is just where i'm predicting this show is going) (this isn't really a reason but more just an example of the kind of storytelling you have to emotionally prepare yourself for)

angela bassett is in it, even if she is a cop

god cursed the fire chief with magic blood so he can't kill himself and go to his idea of heaven (constantly making dinner for the wife and kids he killed with his alcoholism) (he does get to bang angela bassett though) (you like this dude because he's played by peter krause who could put on a fucking clinic on how to tee-hee dance his way around every red flag in human history)

ghosts are real and there are multiple weird plots based on this premise with shockingly long-term effects!!!!

EVERYONE is gay, even the people who are straight

jennifer love hewitt's studio ghibli sponsored tear ducts and ability to breast beautifully downstairs

two men are full ass raising a child together and they don't know that they've been married for several years now but they've been married for several years

you have never felt real human hunger until you've known the urge to motorboat lou ferrigno jr.

[selkies-world]

Me, in the UK, preparing to watch the USA get turned into a fully fledged Christian ethnostate thanks to the fact they willingly voted a Christian Nationalist into power:

Meanwhile, USAmericans:

Here's what's going to happen, now that the orange bastard is on America's throne.

First, it'll be trans people & immigrants that will get the brunt of it. They'll be treated worse than they have this century.

Then it'll be BIPOC and disabled people. It'll be the women & girls who get it the worst, out of these groups.

Then it'll be the gays, and marriage will be returned to the state, Roe & Wade style.

Then it'll be women.

Along the way, they'll also be taking money and funding out of education and the workforce, and putting it into the military, weapons, tech for the pet elongated muskrat, and the church. Funding for climate and science and medicine will be taken away and relocated.

Your weather reports will be privatised, and if you pay to be able to view them, they will give you false information, and will intentionally fail to mention climate change. You will not know when a wildfire is predicted, or a flood, or a hurricane. Likewise, you will not know when those events happen in other states. You will not know what the weather is like in the rest of the world because the news will be heavily censored and filtered.

You will also lose porn. All LGBTQIA+ content, including shows and resources and books, will be classified as pornography, and banned. You will lose the general Internet, and anonymity, and privacy. Spyware will be mandatory on your devices. Anyone caught looking at banned material will be prosecuted, and labeled as a monster - someone looking at gay porn, or reading gay fanfic, or reading up on safe gay sex, will be branded as a pedophile or a sexual deviant.

You will also find that sex ed is removed from schools. Even anatomy & biology classes will be different. You can't miss something if you're never taught it in the first place, surely. Teen pregnancies will increase, as birth control becomes illegal, and pregnancy complications, child deaths, miscarriages and teen parents will be very commonplace. Sexual diseases will also become more prevalent as the medication for them will become scarce; PReP will be next to impossible to access, so a small AIDS epidemic will resurface. Antibiotics and vaccines will become rarer and rarer.

All porn will be deigned as a threat to children, and kink safespaces for adults will be hunted and shut down as being a threat to society. Gay clubs, too. Pride will be canceled, as will pride clubs in schools and colleges. Funding for therapy & mental health resources will dry up.

Families will be torn up, children will be tortured and abused, and adults will be forced to go along with it, face the same treatment, enact the abuse, or go to jail for child abuse because they tried to help their child. Gay adoptions will stop, as will family support for families with gay children.

Meanwhile, the UK will be in a political war with the USA. Palestinians will be bombed more, and so will most countries in the middle East. Egypt will become a target, and a few other parts of Africa. Russia and Ukraine will continue to attack each other, but Russia will be watching the USA and UK. So will North Korea and China.

None of you will be told if there's another pandemic. None of you will be told if there are millions or hundreds of millions of deaths. None of you will be told about loved ones in danger in other countries or states. None of you will be told the truth about anything.

Congratulations, America. You've built your walls high, and fortified your country. But you haven't just shut the rest of the world out; you've shut yourselves in.

If you don't believe me, save this post and come back to it 1 year from now. 2 years. 3 years. 4. Take a screenshot of it. And let's see which of us is right.

[grlbutnotwood]

hello my children I've come bearing treats, eat up

(I wrote a little fake dating hurt/comfort ficlet about mulder and scully posing as a married couple because I had a shitty week)

Many people are certain that the living room is the heart of the house.

Many people, statistically speaking, are also idiots.

The white modest two-story house in this sleepy neighbourhood would actively disagree - if it was capable of communication, that is. It had seen a lot of things, experienced in a way that felt like a warm embrace, a gentle presence in the sunlit beige walls.

1954. Sarah and Ben recieved a phone call on that kitchen - their granddaughter was born. Sarah at the sink dropped the glass she was washing, Ben standing beside her cried for the first time in six years (and no, crying over soap operas doesn't count if it's at night and no one sees it).

1967. James cried in his wife's arms as wave after wave of grief came over him. He'd lost his brother years ago, and yet it never really goes away, does it? The night started with them going through the photoalbums over tea and ended with Josie on kneeling at her husband's chair, stroking his hair as he shook silently on her shoulder.

1978. Leslie and Dot, both culinary school graduates, competed over who makes better dinner. To their neighbours, outside, they were best friends that were going through a rough time together. But on that kitchen, affection was easily given, kisses on cheeks, smiles so wide it hurt and dirty jokes that would have gotten them kicked out of town. The only place they could be truly what they are.

And now. Dana and Fox. Or what was that they called themselves? Doesn't really matter. They weren't there to settle somewhere normal, nondescript - rather they were there exactly because of everything wrong with it, just blowing through like a particularly awkward hurricane.

"One more comment about the weather and I'm shooting myself in the face," Scully let out a harsh breath, massaging her temples as she leaned her elbows on the counter just next to the sink. The commotion of the housewarming party melted away as the door to the kitchen was shut, soft footsteps approaching her.

Slender frame of one Fox Mulder leaned on the kitchen counter inches from her, the familiarity of his cologne and enveloping soothing presence like a balm to her fried nerves.

"I would strongly advice you not do that," his voice was low and teasing, his shoulder bumping into hers. "That face is too pretty to be wasted."

"Not your best one."

"Not the worst one either."

"True," she nodded and turned to face him, looking up at him - all bloodshot tired eyes and pale face. "You know, at one point I thought I might want all of this, suburban routine, three kids and a dog, the whole package. But now I honestly feel..."

"Dishonest? Jaded? Worn out? Out of place?" Mulder supplied, not without sympathy even with a corner of his mouth quirked up in a teasing smirk.

"Fucking done," Scully countered, watching as Mulder's smirk grew into a full-on smile as if watching the sun rise. But really, hearing Scully swear was a treat.

They stood there for a moment, oblivious to the happenings of the outside world, behind this door. The air smelled of herbal tea with orange peels, lasagna and a faint whiff of cleaning products, the only source of light - the dim lamp over the sink and the street lamps outside. Scully's hair caught gold and copper, so unbearably soft in her white t-shirt and with her cheek on her fist, the golden wedding band gleaming in the warm glow of the kitchen light.

It was so easy to pretend it was his.

"Hold still," he murmured, moving ever so closely. Scully, frowning now and yet obedient, stood still as Mulder tapped the skin beneath her eye. "You have an eyelash."

And as he took his hand away to let her see it, say something cheesy about making a wish, and of course, of course - she snorted rather loudly, predicting the sickly-sweet sentiment and ruining it completely as the eyelash fell away.

"Oh man, you didn't make a wish," he whined dramatically while Scully giggled into her palm as the music drifted from the half-opened window.

This kitchen knew love, not in the rings and vows and traditionally romantic rituals, those barely mattered.

It was in shared time and bumped shoulders, secretive smiles and affectionate "haha fuck you". A dropped eyelash and a giggle.

It would still be a long time before those two realized it. But then again, statistically, most people are idiots.

[astrolocherry]

BIRTHDAY JUPITER SERIES

Jupiter in Aries Natal - Girl Born with the Headache from Hell

written by Astrolocherry

People born with Jupiter in Aries feel like the world is at her feet and under her command, until her wings suddenly burn out and her feet crash back down to the ground. There's a vigour for life that is resistant to the limitations that hold other people back. Jupiter in Aries arms her with a celestial guard. Your diamond who doesn't mind for rough conditions or a little blood. She is inquisitive and curious to a level that near sends her parents mad. And it can be a contagious type of inspiration that is a lifelong reminiscent of the spirit of the young. Self-confidence is a potion mixed with the courage, sass, and the spunk to confront her fears and survive the toughest conditions. She is competitive to a relentless degree, winning is the only reason for actually competing. And she can turn even the smallest of daily activities into a competition with someone. When victory is in reach, she seems to summon an extra dose of supernatural adrenaline power, a second wind comes more like a hurricane with fierce determination to win. Organic talent for sports, usually recognisable at an early age is a common Jupiter karmic gift in Aries. These abilities express across wide spectrums and shine in high pressure conditions. Though a Jupiter in Aries temperament is more likely to prefer solo-sports that prevent her from having to rely on others, allow personal goal setting, and the prize will be all her's in the end.

The Jupiter in Aries person likes to stay in motion and doesn't care much for those who can't keep up with her. She will stop at nothing to get the outcome she wants, whether exalting herself by reaching an aspiration, or through acts of mischief, and sometimes vengeance. Her vitriol is a natural curse when directed toward another person, and she must stay armed against those who know how to provoke her. This can overwhelmingly occur with the parental figures and be especially volatile during the formative years. Sometimes, this can be instigated or accompanied by deliberate attempts to be made to feel inadequate to a female sibling.

In the mythological story, Zeus ordered Ares to break his head open to relieve an excruciating headache. Jupiter in Aries individuals can be subject to frequent headaches and debilitating migraines, along with sharp pain behind the eyes.

The condition of Jupiter in Aries tends to require self-inflection points relating to troubles with impulsivity coupled with a grandiosity that can disregard reason and well-informed advice. Along with developing skills that reduce the fight or fight response, learning to pause and reflect rather than react also serves her well. These individuals often require substantial physical outlets that alleviate the inflammation of high stress, agitation, and general frustration at other people. There's usually a therapeutic connection with dogs that may provide a calming effect and a companion with equal energy to expel.

The Jupiter genie grants a gift for enchanted speculation. She has the foresight to spot a fortuitous opportunity when it arrives, usually through a vision or an inclination that she has felt before and it served her well. Immoderation is often the affliction that compromises her game. Eventually, she refuses to be cut by losses and challenges bad habits with objectives and head games. She is certainly wired to be reckless and senseless at times, but she goes head first into anything so soon that she learns early, and often develops a street wise nature beyond her time. Astrology could never predict what the Jupiter in Aries could ever do next.

Cherry

[saturniandevil]

October 2024 Important Dates

AKA my notes on The Astrology Podcast's October Forecast, hosted by Chris Brennan and Austin Coppock.

Here's a graphic from honeycomb.co showing the exactness of planetary transits throughout the month as well:

September Recap: We're starting the month in the middle of eclipse season (there was a lunar eclipse in Pisces on September 17th). Chris talks about how the biggest intensity of events usually occurs within 10 days on either side of an eclipse. For example, on the 10th there was the US Presidential debate, which fell in Harris's 10th house/North Node and indeed represented an improvement in her public image. The Vice Presidential debate also takes place today, October 1st, right before the next eclipse. Another Pisces eclipse story is the second assassination attempt on Trump--Chris & Austin connect these to the close square of Uranus on his natal Mars and on top of his natal Midheaven. Using nativities, Chris points out that for the past 20 years the winning presidential candidate has had an eclipse in an angular house, which would point towards Harris winning. However, using zodiacal releasing, Trump is set to enter a new era of prominence in April of next year--whether from presidency or another set is unclear. There are a lot of factors indicating this year's election (and the time between then and the inauguration period!) will be confusing and full of surprises.

Another eclipse story is Israel's attack on Lebanon--the pagers were detonated on the day of the Pisces eclipse. The current war in Palestine began under last year's Libra eclipse, and escalation with Iran occurred along an eclipse as well. They predict October 2nd may very well be the date Israel starts a ground offensive into Lebanon, with implications of a regional war (A/N: this episode was recorded September 29th). There will be another eclipse in Aries before the nodes move off this axis, but the Pisces eclipse's coincidence with the electronics attacks and assassination of Nasrallah may be foreshadowing another 2 years of conflict.

The Pisces eclipse also highlighted Saturn's transit through Pisces: the OceanGate submarine wreck was finally found (crushed during Saturn rx), as well as the sunken wreck of the Erebus, a 19th-century polar exploration vessel. In other water disasters, Hurricane Helene ravaged much of the Appalachian US, the worst storm in a century for many cities and small towns. There were also devastating floods in Europe, Nigeria, and India and typhoons hitting much of East Asia.

October 2nd - Solar eclipse in Libra

Immediately afterwards, the Sun and Moon move towards a square with Mars, boding ill for world events with its significations of war, anger, and aggression. Eclipses on a particular axis often indicate a series of events over about a year and a half (this one began early October), so we know already know which stories are going to wrap up to make way for something new. In our personal lives changes may be for the better--for example, for one viewer this indicates the end of a relationship making room for a new one. Mercury has just separated from a cazimi with the Sun (11♎), and Mars is waiting at 15 Cancer to square all of these planets after they conjoin each other. The changes will take place abruptly, jarringly, and painfully for some. Eclipses shock us, even when they're positive. Mars-Mercury indicates arguments, fighting words, and foul language (goes direct at 17 Libra/Cancer on the 6th). Be careful with your words, as this may represent a longer conflict than you realize, as Mars enters its pre-retrograde shadow period soon after:

Like all retrogrades, Mars brings revisions, repeats, and unexpected delays. With Mars hanging out in the same few degrees of Cancer & Leo for awhile, we'll be spending a lot of time and energy in those areas of our chart. Mars retrograde can work well for those born under one, though--for Mars rx natives sometimes it's when big projects finally come to fruition with them.

During the Mars-Mercury conflict, we will have some support: Venus (14♏) will trine Saturn (14♓) on the 4th-5th, and on the 8th she'll (18♏) trine Mars (18♋) with reception. She comes in to offer a bit of a salve after the chafing of Mars contacts. Also on that day, soon-to-retrograde Jupiter (21♊) will trine Mercury (21♎) with reception, soothing some of the previous hard aspect to Mars. These are the kinds of situations where a terrible accident occurs, but you miraculously escape major injury. This can also represent extremes of good and bad happening at the same time.

October 6th - Mercury square Mars (discussed above)

October 9th - Jupiter stations retrograde He's going to hang out in the same few degrees of Gemini for a long time. See eclipse above for some details on transits leading up to this.

October 11th - Pluto stations direct From the 11th-13th Pluto, while slowing down and stationing, squares Mercury as the inner planet moves from Libra to Scorpio. We've been having Pluto stations in Capricorn since 2008-9, and this is the last he'll be in Capricorn for the rest of any of our lifetimes. Mercury brings the underworld planet's hidden matters to light: think investigative journalism, mystery stories, and exposés on dark scandals. Conversely, we can also see manipulation, control, and suppression of information by forces who prefer to remain in the shadows. Pluto is like a doorway to the underworld: it both plunges things into obscurity and brings up secrets from the depths. This is one last burst of intensity in late Capricorn/cardinal signs for those of us who've been feeling its effects--think of molting, with its vulnerabilities and benefits alike. This also marks the end of the United States' Pluto return--an uncertain evaluation of the next 250 years.

October 13th - Mercury enters Scorpio

October 14th - Sun square Mars While the Sun (21♎) squares Mars (21♋) with Jupiter (21♊) attempting to mediate by trining the Sun, Venus (26♏) opposes Uranus (26♉). With Uranus-Venus we may see some surprises in our relationships. (Chris notes Mercury is at 01Scorpio this day, same as Kamala Harris's natal chart, so the news will probably be about her.)

October 17th - Aries Full Moon, Venus enters Sagittarius

Normally we'd breathe a sigh of relief that eclipse season is over, but the luminaries (🌙:24♈,🌞:24♎) are coming right off a square to Mars (22♋), and are headed right into a square with Pluto (29♑). Thus, by the end of the month, Mars and Pluto begin to oppose each other, an intense configuration that will stay with us for the rest of the year thanks to Mars's retrograde. Don't ignore the little issues that Mars is highlighting in your life; nip things in the bud or keep an eye on them because the problems will only intensify over the next few months. The Mars-Pluto opposition will go exact right around election day in the US, or early November. Thus this full moon sets an ominous tone for the months ahead.

Mars signifies cutting, separation, and conflict, while Pluto takes themes to their utmost extremes, making the small massive and the massive small (think of a mushroom cloud explosion borne from mere atoms colliding). Combined, this indicates annihilation, survival responses, severe overreactions, power struggles, aggression & confrontations, manipulation and control. Other keywords are ruthlessness, forcefulness, and lashing out at perceived enemies, real or imagined. Pluto really enjoys hidden power as well--we may fall for decoys of where the real power lies. Unfortunately this strongly overshadows the US election. Overall, with Pluto involved we can't see clearly, so paranoia and conspiracies abound. It can also indicate horrific acts coming to light, like CBS News publishing the first photographs of torture at Abu Ghraib during the Mars-Pluto opposition of late April 2004, and financial developments like the 2008 bank crashes.

In our personal lives, this may be a period of extreme mental or physical exertion where you accomplish more than you thought possible. Austin cautions us not to react to negative things in a way that makes the situation worse, which is our impulse with Mars in Cancer. Sometimes we have to accept that events beyond our power--control what you can and accept what you can't. Uranus in Taurus will also get folded into this background tension via sextile with Pluto.

October 22nd - Sun enters Scorpio

October 25th - Auspicious electional date

This is a difficult month, but if you have to do something important, the 25th is a good time. A few different times will work; Chris likes around 3PM local time, adjusting until the Ascendant is at about 20 Aquarius. This makes the ruler Saturn in the 2nd house in a day chart, good for financial matters. The Leo Moon applies to a sextile with Jupiter, boding well for earthly events--as long as you can catch it when the moon is applying (at a lower degree; moving towards the aspect) rather than separating (at a higher degree, moving away). (Viewers on the West Coast of the US, for example, may have to move it back a day.) With 20Aquarius rising you get a nice, supportive trine from Jupiter in the 5th house, good for games and leisurely activities. Venus in the 11th house is also helpful, and in Denver they were able to get her near the Midheaven as well, though it's not a dealbreaker if you can't get that to line up. Venus in the 11th, ruled by Jupiter, does well with friends and alliances. Furthermore, though she is applying to a square with Saturn, in this chart it has her in contact with the Ascendant ruler, affirming and supporting you and the actions you take at this time. Not recommended for health or routine matters with a cranky day chart detriment Mars in the 6th house, and beware of Pluto in the 12th house of hidden enemies and self-undoing. Thus, it's not ideal, but we can get some things done.

October 28th - Venus square retrograde Saturn Venus would normally be happy to get out of her detriment Scorpio and into a neutral sign like Sagittarius, but she has to get past this square to Saturn before she can really party. However, this does put her in a whole-sign opposition to Jupiter while being received by him (in his domicile), giving a silver (copper) lining to everything else going on. When one benefic is setting, the other is rising for us.

October 30th - Mercury opposes Uranus (not pictured) At 25 of Scorpio and Taurus respectively, this may be an "October surprise" news scandal (or events in our personal lives).

[jacarandaaaas]

the more I think of it basically everyone got done dirty in that Bruno book💀 we got pepa marrying a guy 6 years older than her at the ripe age of 17. SEVENTEEN. yikes. we got julieta at knife point because ig they needed some kind of angst or whatever. they also completely forget that the hurricane wedding was because bruno made a bad joke not cause of a “prediction” because god forbid anyone has flaws in this book unless it’s pepa because she’s irrational! and how can I forget mirabel getting a tiny ass note that said “hey ur special also I’m not gonna say who I am or try support u but u got this ig” and her reaction was so ooc💀 I guess we got a “son of a conquistador” because that totally makes sense encanto is definitely set in 1535 good job! maybe if this was a bad fanfic it would be alright but I can’t believe they’re passing this off as not only official BUT AS A PREQUEL💀

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Zoë Schlanger at The Atlantic:

In the United States, as in most other countries, weather forecasts are a freely accessible government amenity. The National Weather Service issues alerts and predictions, warning of hurricanes and excessive heat and rainfall, all at the total cost to American taxpayers of roughly $4 per person per year. Anyone with a TV, smartphone, radio, or newspaper can know what tomorrow’s weather will look like, whether a hurricane is heading toward their town, or if a drought has been forecast for the next season. Even if they get that news from a privately owned app or TV station, much of the underlying weather data are courtesy of meteorologists working for the federal government.

Charging for popular services that were previously free isn’t generally a winning political strategy. But hard-right policy makers appear poised to try to do just that should Republicans gain power in the next term. Project 2025—a nearly 900-page book of policy proposals published by the conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation—states that an incoming administration should all but dissolve the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, under which the National Weather Service operates. Donald Trump has attempted to distance himself from Project 2025, but given that it was largely written by veterans of his first administration, the document is widely seen as a blueprint for a second Trump term.

NOAA “should be dismantled and many of its functions eliminated, sent to other agencies, privatized, or placed under the control of states and territories,” Project 2025 reads. The proposals roughly amount to two main avenues of attack. First, it suggests that the NWS should eliminate its public-facing forecasts, focus on data gathering, and otherwise “fully commercialize its forecasting operations,” which the authors of the plan imply will improve, not limit, forecasts for all Americans. Then, NOAA’s scientific-research arm, which studies things such as Arctic-ice dynamics and how greenhouse gases behave (and which the document calls “the source of much of NOAA’s climate alarmism”), should be aggressively shrunk. “The preponderance of its climate-change research should be disbanded,” the document says. It further notes that scientific agencies such as NOAA are “vulnerable to obstructionism of an Administration’s aims,” so appointees should be screened to ensure that their views are “wholly in sync” with the president’s. The U.S. is, without question, experiencing a summer of brutal weather. In just the past week, a record-breaking hurricane brought major flooding and power outages to Texas amid an extreme-heat advisory. More than a dozen tornadoes ripped through multiple states. Catastrophic flash flooding barreled through wildfire burn scars in New Mexico. Large parts of the West roasted in life-threatening temperatures. Facing any of this without the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration would be mayhem. And future years are likely to be worse.

The NWS serves as a crucial point of contact in a weather crisis, alerting the public when forecasts turn dangerous and advising emergency managers on the best plan of action. So far in 2024, the NWS has issued some 13,000 severe-thunderstorm warnings, 2,000 tornado warnings, and 1,800 flash-flood warnings, plus almost 3,000 river-flood warnings, according to JoAnn Becker, a meteorologist and the president of the union that represents NWS employees. NOAA is also home to the National Hurricane Center, which tracks storms, and the Office of Marine and Aviation Operations, whose pilots fly “hurricane hunter” planes directly into cyclones to measure their wind speed and hone the agency’s predictions. NOAA even predicts space weather. Just this past May, it forecast a severe geomagnetic storm with the potential to threaten power grids and satellites. (The most consequential outages never came to pass, but the solar storm did throw off farmers’ GPS-guided tractors for a while.) Privatizing the weather is not a new conservative aim. Nearly two decades ago, when the National Weather Service updated its website to be more user-friendly, Barry Myers, then executive vice president of AccuWeather, complained to the press that “we work very hard every day competing with other companies, and we also have to compete with the government.” In 2005, after meeting with a representative from AccuWeather, then-Senator Rick Santorum introduced a bill calling for the NWS to cease competition with the private sector, and reserve its forecasts for commercial providers. The bill never made it out of committee. But in 2017, Trump picked Myers to lead NOAA. (Myers withdrew his nomination after waiting two years for Senate confirmation.)

Funding for many of NOAA’s programs could plummet in 2025, and the agency already suffers from occasional telecommunications breakdowns, including a recent alert-system outage amid flooding in the Midwest. It is also subject to political pressures: In 2019, the agency backed then-President Trump’s false claim (accompanied by a seemingly Sharpie-altered map) that Hurricane Dorian was headed for Alabama. Private companies might be better funded and, theoretically, less subject to political whims. They can also use supercomputing power to hone NOAA’s data into hyperlocal predictions, perhaps for an area as small as a football stadium. Some, including AccuWeather, use their own proprietary algorithms to interpret NWS data and produce forecasts that they claim have superior accuracy. (Remember, though: Without NWS data, none of this would happen.)

[...] The NWS also has perks that a private system would be hard-pressed to replicate, including a partnership with the World Meteorological Organization, which allows the U.S. access to a suite of other countries’ weather models. International collaboration proved crucial in 2012, when Hurricane Sandy was still churning in the Atlantic Ocean. Initially, the American model predicted, incorrectly, that the storm would turn away from the East Coast. But the European model accurately forecast a collision course, which bought emergency managers in the U.S. crucial time to prepare before Sandy made ferocious landfall in New Jersey.

Project 2025 could have an impact on how accurate and precise weather forecasts are delivered, since NOAA and NWS could be significantly altered.

This is one of many reasons why we must vote Blue up and down the line.

See Also:

Daily Kos: Project 2025 will affect every part of life. Even weather updates

[bobcatmoran]

So, with the 20th anniversary of the US's incredibly ill-advised and generally terrible invasion of Iraq, I've been reminded of where I was at the time that happened. Namely, I was in college, and I was taking a course called "Human Geography of Global Issues." The professor was a Texan, and was known for a) the fact that he loudly and proudly wore cowboy boots everywhere, sometimes capped off with a ten gallon hat — not your typical fashion at my Minnesotan college — and b) his repeated insistence, delivered in his drawling accent, that "Bush Junior is not a real Texan — the whole family are just a bunch of carpetbaggers from New England." (he was also just an absolute gem of a man — I have a very vivid memory of coming into the Geography Department offices the next year, distraught because a computer glitch meant that none of my class registrations for the next semester had taken and the GIS course I wanted to take for my minor was full — and he calmed me down, reassured me that there were ways around this for not only the GIS class but all the classes I was now locked out of, helped me navigate the system, and I got an email within the week saying that despite the GIS class having no room in the online course registration, I was now registered for it)

He was also an expert on the Middle East. And, as it became clearer and clearer as the semester went on that the then-Current Administration (which he had negative respect for) was hellbent on going into Iraq for reasons which seemed to largely amount to "Gonna finish what Daddy Bush started," he made predictions. Predictions about how easy it would be to topple Saddam Hussein and how hard it would be to fill the power vacuum. Predictions about the looming sectarian time bomb between the Shia and Sunni Muslims in Iraq. Predictions about how the Kurds would react. Predictions about how the US would get bogged down and wouldn't be able or willing to leave for years and years and would, in the meantime, commit warcrimes that would just lead to the rise of new terrorist groups.

Every single one of those predictions came true.

(He also predicted in detail during one class, with terrifying accuracy and illustrations, exactly what would happen if a major hurricane hit New Orleans, which it did two years later with Katrina).

Meanwhile, on campus, a "Peace Camp" sprung up in front of the campus center, with students living in tents until…uh…ok, the goals were kind of fuzzy, but it was a fixture for the rest of the school year. At one point, the Young Republicans (all three of them :P) decided to set up a "Freedom Camp" on the other side of campus, which wound up consisting of like, two guys with signs for a single day, and which led to a sprouting of mocking signs for "Weed Camp" and "Space Camp."

Also, a group of anti-war protestors took up a station kitty-corner from campus and they were there every day until I graduated, waving signs, with cars honking as they passed.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Rio Grande do Sul Floods: How Can Brazil's Politicians Not See Climate?

The deadly floods in southern Brazil are unprecedented but not unexpected. Ahead of the October local elections, Brazilians must remember that politicians have ignored scientists' predictions and weakened legislation that could have helped deal with climate change.

The tragedy that has stuck Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s southernmost state, is unprecedented. The amount of rain that has fallen in recent days and is still falling there is extreme and so are the consequences. The death toll has reached 100, and more than a hundred people are still missing. More than 1 million people have been affected.

These impressive figures and the images that look more like disasters caused by hurricanes or tsunamis can generate a false idea of rarity, of bad luck. “It rained like never before, we couldn't have prepared for it" is the phrase most often used to justify calamities like this.

But it is no accident. It was already known, already expected. And, I'm sorry to say, it's going to happen again. And again. And not just with the gauchos in Rio Grande do Sul.

Don't take me for an alarmist or a pessimist. Science has been warning for a long time that the increased occurrence of extreme events is one of the main consequences of climate change. The surreal amount of carbon dioxide that accumulates in the atmosphere — due to human activities — and warms the planet, alters the entire functioning of the climate system. A warmer Earth means more energy in the equation. Heat is synonymous with tragedy.

Due to its geographical location, Rio Grande do Sul is particularly sensitive to the natural phenomena El Niño and La Niña. That's why it's relatively common for droughts and heavy rains to alternate there. But global warming is making this worse. So is deforestation. And although much of this new reality translates into situations that seem to take us by surprise, scientists had already estimated that this would be the case. The consecutive tragedies that have been accumulating since last year were not for lack of warning.

The independent online newspaper Intercept Brasil recalled on May 6 a study commissioned in 2014 by the government of then president Dilma Rousseff that warned of the risk of flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. The "Brazil 2040" report mentioned the dangers of agribusiness, especially in the state, and also of hydroelectric dams, which clashed with the government's electricity expansion plans. The report ended up being shelved in 2015 without any action being taken.

We didn’t have to wait until 2040 for predicted dangers to become reality. And it wasn't just this study that warned about the risks. Local researchers, such as Francisco Aquino, a climatologist at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), have shown that extreme events are already intensifying, without anything having been done to prevent deaths and losses.

Last year, Rio Grande do Sul was the state with the highest number of rain-related emergency and disaster decrees in Brazil.

Continue reading.

[youcouldmakealife]

Bracket Challenge: Round One

A little late, because the NHL decided to be unorthodox and spring the second round before the first was even through (rude), but here are everyone’s predictions!

Florida Panthers 67% Tampa Bay Lightning 33%

Toronto Maple Leafs 52% Boston Bruins 48%

New York Rangers 58% Washington Capitals 42%

Carolina Hurricanes 75% New York Islanders 25%

Colorado Avalanche 68% Winnipeg Jets 32%

Edmonton Oilers 75% Los Angeles Kings 25%

Vancouver Canucks 87% Nashville Predators 13%

Dallas Stars 60% Vegas Golden Knights 40%

Pretty damn solid predictions, everybody, possibly YCMAL 'verse related amount of faith in the 2023/4 Washington Capitals aside (also probably YCMAL 'verse Vancouver Canucks bias, who 23 of 24 ESPN pundits expect to die an unceremonious death in the coming round, a piece of information I hope will fuel the underdog arc they’ve already established with the ‘All-Star goalie injured put in the second string — oop, second string goalie injured, put in the AHLer’ storyline. (It does help when said AHLer beat Team USA to win Latvia’s first Bronze medal in Worlds last year and is a hero of the people as a result, tbh. That’s EXCELLENT underdog storyline setup by the hockey gods a year in advance).

It does help that there was only one upset in the first round, and y’all predicted said upset would happen. But pat yourselves on the back, everyone: we went 7/8 in the first round, with only a 4% margin on the one series that went the other way (in OT of Game 7, so 50/50 seems pretty fair). Better than most of the pundits!

[phinnyexplainsathing]

Hurricane Season has Ended, Were my predictions correct?

(sequel? To my original predictions on Quotev!)

How Many Storms did we have this year?

My prediction was

At Least 19 storms

11 becoming Hurricanes

5 being major!

This year we had:

18 storms

11 hurricanes

5 major hurricanes

HOLY CRAP I WAS CORRECT EXCEPT FOR THE AMOUNT OF STORMS

I’m surprised it was as eventful as I thought it would be, I honestly thought I would be incorrect but dang past phinny. You did your research boy! >:3

Where I thought hurricanes would hit the hardest?

My prediction was:

Northern Yucatán Peninsula

Lucayan Archipelago

Florida

Texas

The Caribbean.

Central America

Louisiana

Mississippi

Alabama

Places affected the most:

Essentially all that I predicted with the addition of Western NC. Not even the most experienced Meteorologist could’ve predicted that though.

Other thoughts I had

I predicted that we would see a lot of tornadoes spawned from the hurricanes this year. And I was correct, We had 168!! I’m very surprised that they were intense enough for that many!

Closing thoughts/Things I was surprised to see

My god. This hurricane season blew me away y’all. I was in Hurricane Helene, and at some point I just thought “Wow this is scary. I don’t think I wanna be a meteorologist anymore if this is what it’s like.” Because it was that scary y’all, I was so scared! It was so upsetting to see places I love get destroyed just like that. Especially in a place that you would absolutely not expect to get hit that hard!

I also did not expect this to be the Second costliest on record or have 400 people dead. Like I expected it to be awful, but I did not expect it to be this awful. :(

I don’t ever wanna live through Hurricane Helene again, and My town was barely affected!!!

Anyway, That’s all I got y’all! This was a scary one!

Hope y’all are having a good day!