#Silver Forecast

[pricevisionai]

Commodity Trading: Introduction to AI-based Price Forecasting Tool

A commodity is a freely exchangeable good or material with a similar worth to a piece of merchandise. Agricultural goods, energy, metal, and animals and meat are the four main groups. Commencing thousands of years ago, the pricing and selling of commodities have always been crucial to the establishment of numerous empires, both economically and politically. Commodity markets have expanded over the years in tandem with ongoing product development.

Commodity exchanges' primary goal is to provide producers with a marketplace where they may sell their goods to consumers who are in need of them. However, it is associated with extremely high volatility brought on by speculators who buy assets for a brief period of time with the hope of making money from changes in price. As a result, they might never handle the successful service of the commodity.

Artificial intelligence forecasting and planning is a discipline that enables unsupervised, scientific future projections. Time series data is used by AI planning systems to forecast future trends in a variety of sectors, including sales, health, financial services, and production. With AI forecasting, scheduling and planning issues can be easily anticipated.

Why are predicting commodity prices of interest to people?

Since the earliest days of human civilization, the pricing and trade of commodities (i.e., things and raw materials that may be purchased and sold) have attracted a significant deal of attention. A civilization's growth was closely tied to its capacity to generate valuable things that could be exchanged for other goods or commodities that it lacked but which were essential to its prosperity. The trading and pricing of commodities have grown increasingly complex over time, yet the underlying rules that govern how they are handled now are the same as those that applied a few thousand years ago.

Numerous applications of commodities can be seen in our daily lives. With the ongoing evolution of products, the uses and needs for commodities have changed over time. One of the most ancient and commonly used materials is copper, which has been used for thousands of years to make tools and weapons for hunting and farming, among other things. Due to its excellent conductivity, copper is now mostly used in electrical equipment, particularly electrical wire.

Individuals are interested in valuing and selling commodities for a variety of reasons. The producers and purchasers of real physical commodities make up a sizable fraction of those involved in trading operations related to commodities. In this instance, different forms of future contracts are used for hedging reasons to carry out the purchasing and selling activities. Speculators are a diverse group of individuals that are engaged in commodity trading. Here, speculative traders engage in financial operations with the intention of making money by profiting from changes in commodity prices. Speculators have zero interest in purchasing the actual commodity.

AI for anticipating time series

Machine Learning (ML) or artificial intelligence more generally, is the research of algorithms that can generate results that depend heavily on the input data given. Contrary to this, traditional algorithms usually do a particular task by carefully following a set of clear, predetermined instructions. Thanks to improvements in processing power as well as an abundance of data that can be used to "train" these kinds of algorithms, algorithms for machine learning have grown in popularity and have been widely implemented in recent years.

Machine learning includes a wide range of techniques, which are typically divided into three groups based on the kind of problem they try to answer and the kind of data they have access to. Supervised Learning, Unsupervised Learning, and Reinforcement Learning are the three categories of algorithms. Algorithms for Supervised Learning, which may be directly applied to time-series data, are mostly used in price forecasting.

There is a lot of research being done to increase the dependability of time series information for applications other than just finance. Examples of these applications include forecasting consumer demand or product usage, figuring out how traffic will change in a certain location, or even anticipating how patients will react to certain medications over a specified time frame.

What methods does AI planning use?

In terms of models and techniques for various sorts of AI forecasting and planning in business, three approaches now dominate the field of artificial intelligence:

Networks using Bayes

One of the earliest types of AI, Bayesian Networks, scale exceptionally well for many different types of challenges and are possibly the most extensively used and significant AI technologies. They effectively carry out a wide range of highly diversified AI activities, including order planning features in slashing POS systems, spam filters that secure your email inbox, and military equipment used to detect threats to national security.

Adaptive Algorithms

Despite having a long history of inspiration, optimization techniques represent one of the most recent developments in artificial intelligence. Mimicking the natural processes of recombination, mutation, and performance comparison to identify the most suited to undergo further evolution. Due to the fact that they are a better fit for engineering issues where the circumstances are complex but extremely well understood, optimization algorithms are less frequently used in AI planning. Nevertheless, they are nevertheless quite helpful in various forecasting and planning activities since they are creative and new optimizers that may come up with answers that people usually wouldn't think of.

In-depth Learning

Despite being the most computationally intensive AI discipline, it is also the youngest. What it misses in the sophistication of age, it frequently more often than compensates for through its striking resemblance to the mechanisms found in the genuine, innate intellect of humans. Unstructured data is taken and put through a network of specialized algorithms, each of which focuses on a specific portion of the data before merging their individual characterizations to analyze the entire data set. This algorithm is ideally suited to making decisions on tasks that cannot be easily characterized by basic rules since each component gradually improves its task by "learning" with each run. This can be a crucial asset when forecasting or making plans based on preferences or human behavior.

How are planning and forecasting using AI used in various industries?

Every day, a wide variety of businesses employ AI forecasting and planning to create firm scientific predictions for their operations.

Several instances include:

To balance supplies & sales in a way that maximizes profits, the whole global production supply chain relies on AI forecasting and planning. Even the smallest manufacturing requires considerably more suppliers than a human mind can handle on its own, much less perfectly optimize. None of the contemporary huge industrial corporations could even exist, much less rule their sector, without AI forecasting and planning.

Since causal inference is not well-suited for predicting novel events but accurate planning is still crucial to success, high-tech industries rely on AI forecasting and forecasting when creating cutting-edge products.

In order to overcome the prejudices of doctors, scientists, and support workers and better comprehend sickness and modify therapies using data-driven approaches, healthcare is quickly adopting AI forecasting and planning.

Forecasting the right time to switch inventory between summer to fall is crucial in a worldwide retail management system. However, if it isn't taken into account independently for each hemisphere when the temperatures rise, Australia will receive shipments of bulky winter clothing.

How is AI planning crucial to your company?

With considerably fewer errors and consistently better results than data scientists and specialists, AI forecasting and planning employs algorithms to make forecasts and forecast tendencies without the use of human judgment. Studies that compared expert human forecasts with predictions made by artificial intelligence almost always showed the former to be superior. Although AI and algorithms won't ever completely replace human intelligence, data analysts and forecasters will always find their capacity to evaluate data to be useful tools.

Businesses are aware of many parts of specific data, such as the typical length of customer waits or the number of products that can be produced in a day, but due to the millions of bytes that are collected every day and the fact that a large portion of that data is unstructured, it is essentially impossible for a person to analyze data as quickly and precisely as AI.

Insufficient AI prediction in your company could result in significant efficiency losses. According to studies, the majority of corporate planners believe artificial intelligence will replace traditional methods of demand forecasting in the future.

Greater portions of planning and forecasting will need to be done by AI as the world becomes more complicated since the human mind cannot keep up with that degree of complexity. Until it completely vanishes, such data prediction work produced without AI is becoming increasingly unusual. A company will benefit more from implementing this technology as soon as possible.

What qualities should AI forecasting tools have?

Artificial intelligence prediction systems must clearly and simply transform unprocessed data into scientific projections. They should take a two-pronged approach, using historical data to evaluate forecasting models and predict future trends in addition to your data.

[goldsilverreports]

Silver Forecast for 2023 by Neal Bhai [02-January-2023] (HINDI)

Silver Forecast for 2023: 2023 के लिए चांदी के पूर्वानुमान के लिए, मेरा मानना ​​है कि अगला साल चांदी और सोने के लिए 2022 से बेहतर होगा। तर्क सरल है। पिछले साल, फेड के कड़े चक्र ने चांदी की कीमतों पर मजब��त गिरावट का दबाव बनाया। लेकिन धातु मामूली लाभ के साथ वर्ष का अंत करने में कामयाब रही। (more…)

[jadagul]

I have my first officially published opinion piece out today, a short bit on election forecasting. Please go read it (1) because I think the point I'm making is important and (2) so they think I'm cool and let me write more stuff.

I decided to pitch a bomb into the Grimmer-Silver controversy on whether election forecasts are valuable when we don't have enough information for them to pass a hypothesis test.

Because the piece is short, I wasn't able to detour into the ways this ties into bad publish health decisions; but I think the Grimmer perspective here is very similar to the perspective that argued we knew masks didn't work early in the covid pandemic, or that vaccines didn't reduce transmission, or resisted a lot of moves toward air filtration.

[junipernight]

I'm making Hurricane Milton do something useful when he comes (water in my new wildflowers) :P

[the-shipping-forecasters]

Treasure Atlantis: Legend of the Lost Iron Road to Groove (animated films)

Because one topic wasn't enough, this week we've opted to try and talk as many classic animations as we can. Covered in this episode are:

Atlantis: Lost Empire

The Road to El Dorado

Treasure Planet

Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas

The Emperors New Groove

The Iron Giant

Wallace and Gromit (Briefly)

Join us, as James unlocked a new crush, Nick takes his daddy issues to new and exciting heights, and Grace finally has a turn with being the responsible adult in the room.

If that sounds your jam, you can have a listen here:

Or here

Or even here

PS, if you simped for Eris AND Helga you have the same animation lead to thank (and he has excellent taste)

[robboyblunder]

Collection of drawings from a group celebratory drawpile for this week because i'm too busy to post any other art at the moment~ two of these are OC gift art for @corruptimles , one as a joke the other just for fun!

Image ID in ALT text!

[bobzora]

acheron so good she makes me want to complete gold and gears to unlock erudition blessings

[stockbroker1]

The Best Stock Broker in India

Choosing the best stocks broker in India as is a crucial decision for investors looking to navigate the complexities of the financial markets. With a myriad of options available, selecting the right broker can significantly impact your investment experience and outcomes.

Please visit our Website - https://beststocksbroker.com/

Address: Ground Floor, D - 113, D Block, Sector 63, Noida, Uttar Pradesh 201301

Phone: 9625066561

[robinfrinjs]

Looking at the weather forecast for race day, there's quite a chance of rain, especially around 5PM local time which should be about an hour into the race.

[trendynewsnow]

The Evolution and Impact of Election Forecasts

In 2008, Nate Silver revolutionized the world of political analysis with his groundbreaking election forecast model, a tool that was not only novel but also impressively accurate. His work earned him a spot on Time magazine’s prestigious list of the 100 most influential people the following year. Since then, the landscape of election forecasting has transformed dramatically. Today, such forecasts…

[sharemarketinsider]

Gold and Silver Prices Rise Amid Geopolitical Tensions

���� How are global tensions shaping gold prices? 💰 Discover why gold is seeing a surge and what it means for your investments. Learn about key market trends, opportunities, and risks that every investor should know! 👉 #GoldPrices #Investing #MarketTrends #Geopolitics

[pricevisionai]

Difference Between Commodity Market and Stock Market

The market provides a wide range of assets where people can invest their unused funds to make money. Investors seeking strong returns typically invest in either equities or commodities, which are two different asset classes. Stocks signify ownership in a corporation, whereas commodities are items like metals, energy, and agricultural products. Both of these asset groups have substantial potential for profit. They are exchanged, nonetheless, on various markets. Therefore, before investing in either, it is crucial to understand the differences between the stock market and the commodity market.

By inexperienced investors, the phrases stock market & commodity market are frequently used interchangeably. Even so, there are several key distinctions between the two that might guide your choice of investment. The distinctions between these two markets, if you're novice to investing, will become clearer as your wealth increases. Nevertheless, even seasoned investors occasionally succumb to the parallels between equities and commodities. There are certain distinctions between them, though, and we'll discuss those in this post. If you're not familiar with how the stock market operates, you might want to review the fundamentals before going any further.

Stock Exchange

It alludes to a group of stock exchanges where shares are bought, sold, and traded. As was already established, stocks represent a company's ownership. These are best understood as components of the total equity of a corporation. Each business understands only Rs. 1000 of a company's total equity if its capital is worth Rs. 1000 crores and there are 1 crore shares. One share of stock entitles the holder to only that fraction of the company's ownership.

The value of one's holding regularly varies with adjustments in the statement of financial position, driven about by a multiplicity of circumstances, both internally and externally. Depending on their investing goals, a person may decide to sell their stocks the same day they are purchased, a year later, or even 10 years later.

The stock market, which has numerous exchanges within it, is the market that makes it possible to purchase and sell. In the Indian stock market, there really are two primary stock exchanges -

●            National Stock Exchange

●            Bombay Stock Exchange

Individuals must have a trade and DEMAT account in order to invest in equities listed on either of these markets or others.

Commodity Market

It is a commodity market, as the name would imply. These products fall into two categories:

●            Hard commodities

●            Soft commodities

The former speaks of products that are mined and extracted, such as crude gold and oil. These are 2 of the most valuable and traded commodities on the planet. Rice, wheat, eggs, pigs, cattle, and other agricultural commodity and livestock items are included in the latter group. Comparatively speaking to hard goods, these often have a significantly shorter lifespan.

These products can be bought, sold, and traded in commodity markets. The trading process is one of the comparisons between commodities and stocks. The majority of dealers that trade commodities do so using futures contracts. These agreements bind the parties to carry out a transaction at the agreed-upon price and on the agreed-upon date. Futures contracts are frequently used by manufacturers and farmers as a hedge against possible losses. These, nevertheless, also serve as a remarkable tool for realising a profit.

A person may decide to invest immediately in commodities. To that goal, India has six commodity exchanges:

●            Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)

●            Ace Derivatives Exchange (ACE)

●            The Universal Commodity Exchange (UCX)

●            National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE)

●            Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX)

●            National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX)

What distinguishes the commodity market from the stock market?

Analyzing the influence of various economic elements on each market is crucial if one wants to clearly comprehend the differences between both the stock market or commodity market.

●            Inflation

A rising tendency in the prices of almost all items in an economy is referred to as inflation. Inflation typically happens along with rising consumer income. The former does, however, occasionally surpass the latter.

A commodity market flourishes in an inflationary environment because as raw material costs rise, a growing number of investors turn to those markets. As a result, the cost of manufactured items rises, which lowers consumption. It spirals into subpar performance across numerous industries, causing the stock market to move downward. It's one of the key distinctions between the stock market and the commodity market.

●            US dollar's value

The impact of USD on gold is extremely pronounced. The value of gold is inversely correlated to the US dollar. Typically, when the USD is performing poorly, investors look to gold as a safe haven. On the other hand, if the US currency strengthens, investors are less likely to like it.

In other instances, as in the most recent recession that shook the market in late February, this propensity for gold also correlates with such a disinterest in the stock market. Before choosing to invest in either, it is essential to understand the differences between the stock market and the commodity market. In order to make an informed choice in these marketplaces, it's crucial to analyze the possibilities available.

[financia012]

Silver Price Forecast Update – 22-11-2024

As silver continues to play a vital role in both industrial applications and investment portfolios, the price forecast for November 22, 2024, shows a dynamic outlook. This article delves into the key factors driving silver prices, technical analysis for traders, and market trends to watch as the silver market navigates the evolving financial landscape. Market Trends to Watch for Silver on…

[tfatrading]

Silver has long been a valuable asset for investors, collectors, and those looking to hedge against economic uncertainty. As we move further into the post-Diwali period, many are eager to understand how silver prices will behave in the short and long term. The silver rate forecast for today, tomorrow, and the coming weeks holds significant interest for investors in India and across the world.

[originalleftist]

A few things to understand about Nate Silver's election projection.

He gives Trump better odds of winning the election, but not overwhelmingly so- 58.2%.

It is important to not get complacent/overconfident. The surge of support for and unity behind Harris/Walz is amazing, but it isn't over until its over, and with voter suppression, the Electoral College, and Republican state legislators, officials, and judges including the Supreme Court majority bent on interference, we are playing against a stacked deck.

It is also important not to get defeatist. The only poll that decides anything is the vote on November 5th, and we have two whole months of campaigning, a Presidential debate, and other new developments before then.

Nate Silver has a long history of his forecasts being off- and not always in favour of the same party. To be fair, this isn't entirely on him. Election forecasts are not prophecy- at best, they are approximations of probability.

That said, it is also probably relevant context that Nate Silver now works for a crypto company, Polymarket, which took hundreds of millions in bets on the outcome of the election (and, though not mentioned in the article below, is heavily connected to pro-Trump billionaire Peter Thiel). But I'm sure that has no influence on his forecast, right?

[xtruss]

Hoi Chan

How To Strengthen Your Happiness Muscle

Psychologists Call It Reward Sensitivity. And Simple Steps Can Help You Boost Your Drive To Seek Out Positive Emotions and Enjoy Life.

— By Jenny Taitz | August 19, 2024 | The New York Times

We’ve all experienced it: the urge to withdraw and duck experiences we know we’ll enjoy — even when a mood boost is what we need most. We skip the birthday party. We cancel lunch. They just don’t seem worth the effort. And then, more likely than not, we feel worse than we did before.

So how do you find the motivation to get out there, especially when you’re feeling low, stressed, tired or lonely? One proven strategy is to strengthen what psychologists call your reward sensitivity.

Our drive to seek out happiness is a muscle that we can develop. So is our ability to relish experiences. And almost anyone can learn to amp up their reward sensitivity by training themselves to notice and savor their positive emotions. That’s even true for people with depression and anxiety who struggle to experience pleasure, a condition called anhedonia.

Of course, all of us have trouble pursuing pleasure sometimes. I recently took my young sons to the beach for the weekend. Hours before our getaway, I learned a friend had died. Numbed by the news, I was in no mood to have a good time, even though I wanted to make things special for my family.

It’s part of my job as a therapist to teach people how to manage their emotions. And as I tell my patients, it’s possible to honor legitimate sources of pain and still recognize that moments of brightness improve our well-being.

The research-backed strategies below, which I use in my practice, helped me to make the most of our trip.

Reward Sensitivity and Mental Health.

When it comes to mental health treatment, doctors and therapists tend to focus on easing their patients’ negative symptoms — they want “to take away the bad,” explained Alicia Meuret, a professor of psychology at Southern Methodist University.

Yet most of us don’t just need to reduce pain, we also need to boost joy.

In fact, improving positive emotions can be a higher priority for patients than containing their depressive symptoms. And research shows that treatments based on this idea can be effective.

A 2023 study co-led by Dr. Meuret found that when adults experiencing depression or anxiety participated in 15 weeks of psychotherapy focused on enhancing positive emotions, they reported more improvement than a group whose therapy focused on reducing negative emotions.

Shorter interventions have shown benefits as well. A 2024 study of 85 students, led by Lucas LaFreniere, an assistant professor of psychology at Skidmore College, gave subjects with anxiety regular smartphone prompts to plan pleasurable activities, savor positive moments and look forward to future positive events. After a week, they showed significantly improved feelings of optimism.

An Exercise To Boost Your Reward Sensitivity.

To raise your reward sensitivity, you can try an exercise based on the treatment plans in these studies. Make it a daily practice for as long as it’s helpful, but commit to at least a week.

Begin by planning one activity per day that will make you happy or give you a sense of accomplishment. This will make you less likely to postpone positive experiences. Be realistic — it can be as small as treating yourself to a favorite snack, reading a few pages of a novel or FaceTiming a friend.

After you’ve enjoyed that daily moment, close your eyes and recount out loud, in the present tense, where and when you experienced the greatest joy. Home in on details and physical sensations, like the breeze cooling your face as the sun shines. This all might feel hokey, but don’t gloss over the specifics, Dr. Meuret cautioned. The idea isn’t just to remember how you felt, but to amplify and reexperience it.

Psychologists call the process of identifying and immersing in positive emotions savoring.

“Growing the glow of positive emotions,” as Dr. LaFreniere put it, strengthens your memory of them, and increases your motivation to seek them out going forward. Savoring also helps counteract the very human tendency to focus on and remember negative aspects of an event: the friend who was 15 minutes late, the thing you wish you hadn’t said.

More Ways To Stretch Positive Feelings.

Here are some more subtle but powerful tweaks you can make to nurture a positive mind-set.

Expand Your Joy Vocabulary: Many of us struggle to label our positive emotions much beyond fine, good or great. But research suggests that finding more words to describe those feelings can validate and intensify them, Dr. Meuret said. When reflecting on how something made you feel, try to be precise, using words like serene, elated, exhilarated, delighted, inspired.

Share Your Highlight Reel: Think about the details you typically volunteer when asked about your day or a recent trip. It can be tempting to vent. But broadcasting what made you happiest can make you feel better, spread that happiness to another person — and also strengthen a bond, said Charlie Taylor, an associate professor of psychiatry at the University of California, San Diego, who researches social reward sensitivity.

Find Silver Linings: With practice, it’s possible to notice the positives hidden in things that we might first see as negative, Dr. Taylor said. For example, if you invited co-workers to get together and only one person showed up, you could easily view that as a failure. But the silver lining, he said, would be that you got to know that one person better.

Forecast Future Wins: If looking at your calendar sparks dread, Dr. Meuret said, pick an event that’s approaching and think of the best possible outcome. If you’re tired and want to back out of meeting a friend for a workout, picture an especially energizing class. Imagine smiling at each other across the room, feeling proud. Using imagery can encourage motivation and prime you for more uplifting experiences, Dr. Meuret explained.

Give Yourself Permission To Feel Happy.

Keep in mind, too, that it’s normal to sometimes feel uncomfortable with pleasurable feelings, particularly if you experience depression and anxiety.

“Some people can feel vulnerable when they let themselves feel good,” Dr. LaFreniere said. Worrying can make you feel like you’re ready to respond to threats — but by constantly prepping for disaster, he said, we miss the happiness in front of us right now.

On my recent weekend trip with my kids, it was a challenge to let myself have fun. But sharing s’mores by the glistening ocean still filled me with lingering delight. I made sure to pause and savor the best parts, like when some florists gave us fistfuls of hydrangeas and roses from a wedding arch they were taking apart alongside the beach. I felt waves of sadness crashing through the trip, thinking of the friend I had lost, but letting myself bask in love and levity helped me find my balance again.

“The truth is,” Dr. LaFreniere said, “sometimes we need to behave like happy people if we actually want to be happy.”

— Jenny Taitz is a Practicing Psychologist and an Assistant Clinical Professor of Psychiatry.