#Russian Iskander Ballistic Missile

[xtruss]

Meet The World’s New Arms Dealers! Where To Buy Drones, Fighters And Tanks On The Cheap

— September 19th, 2023

An aerial view of Kizilelma, Bayraktar TB2, HURKUS, and Akinci surrounded by crowds of visitors at Teknofest in Ataturk Airport, Türkiye 🇹🇷. Image: Getty Images

The sight of North Korea’s chubby leader, Kim Jong Un, shaking hands with Vladimir Putin on September 13th—having travelled by train to a spaceport in Russia’s far east to discuss selling its dictator a stash of Korean weapons—was remarkable both on its own terms and for what it said about the business of selling arms. The world’s five biggest arms-sellers (America, Russia, France, China and Germany) account for more than three-quarters of exports. But up-and-coming weapons producers are giving the old guard a run for their money. They are making the most of opportunities created by shifting geopolitics. And they are benefiting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Mr Kim’s trip to Russia followed a visit to Pyongyang in July by Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister, who wanted to see if North Korea could provide gear that would help his country’s faltering war effort. North Korea would love to find buyers for its military kit. And few regimes are willing to sell Russia arms. China has so far been deterred from providing much more than dual-purpose chips (although it could yet channel more lethal stuff through North Korea). Only Iran has obliged, selling some 2,400 of its Shahed “Kamikaze” drones.

North Korea could provide a wider range of stuff. As well as drones and missiles such as the kn-23, which is almost a replica of the Russian Iskander Ballistic Missile, it could offer self-propelled howitzers and multi-launch rocket systems. According to sources in American intelligence, North Korea has been delivering 152mm shells and Katyusha-type rockets to Russia for the best part of a year. Russia is shopping in Pyongyang and Tehran because both regimes are already so heavily targeted by international sanctions that they have nothing to lose and much to gain by doing business with Mr Putin’s government. They are not so much an “axis of evil” as a marketplace of pariahs.

Image: The Economist

If the North Korean arms industry is being boosted by the war in Ukraine, its southern foe is doing even better. South Korea’s arms exporters were cleaning up even before the conflict. In the five years to 2022 the country rose to ninth place in a ranking of weapons-sellers compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a think-tank (See Chart); the government aspires to make South Korea the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter by 2027. Last year it sold arms worth $17bn, more than twice as much as in 2021. Some $14.5bn came from sales to Poland.

The size and scope of the agreements South Korea has reached with Poland, which sees itself as a front-line country in Europe’s defence against a revanchist Russia, is jaw-dropping. The deal includes 1,000 K2 Black Panther tanks, 180 of them delivered rapidly from the army’s own inventory and 820 to be made under licence in Poland. That is more tanks than are operating in the armies of Germany, France, Britain and Italy combined. The package also includes 672 k9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers; 288 K239 Chunmoo Multiple-Rocket Launchers; and 48 Golden Eagle FA-50s, a cut-price fourth-generation fighter jet.

South Korea’s success in the arms business is down to competitive costs, high-quality weaponry and swift delivery, says Tom Waldwyn at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank based in London. Its prices reflect Korean manufacturing efficiency. The quality derives from Korea’s experience working with the best American Weaponry, and from its own High-tech Civil Sector. Speedy delivery is possible because the Koreans, facing a major threat across their northern border, run hot production lines that can also ramp up quickly.

Siemon Wezeman, a researcher with sipri’s arms-transfer programme, says wholehearted support from government and attractive credit arrangements are also critical to South Korea’s success. Asian customers like that the fact that it has close ties to America without being America, which is often seen as an unreliable ally. This could also help South Korea clinch a $45bn deal to renew Canada’s ageing submarine fleet. Questions for the future include how far South Korea will go in transferring technology to its customers—a crucial issue for Poland, which sees itself as an exporting partner of South Korea’s, competing with Germany and France in the European market.

If South Korea is the undisputed leader among emerging arms exporters, second place goes to Turkey. Since the ruling ak party came to power in 2002 it has poured money into its defence industry. A goal of achieving near-autarky in weapons production has become more pressing in the face of American and European sanctions—the former imposed in 2019 after Turkey, a nato member, bought Russian s-400 surface-to-air missiles.

Rocket-Fuelled

SIPRI thinks that between 2018 and 2022 Turkey’s weapons exports increased by 69% compared to the previous five-year period, and that its share of the global arms market doubled. According to a report in July by a local industry body, the value of its defence and aerospace exports rose by 38% in 2022, compared with the previous year, reaching $4.4bn. The target for this year is $6bn. Pakistan is receiving modernised submarines from Turkey. And the last of four Corvettes which Turkey has sold to the Pakistan navy was launched last month. More sales to other countries are likely, both because Turkey’s ships are competitively priced and because Turkey has few qualms about who it will sell to.

Yet Turkey’s export charge is led by armed drones. On July 18th Turkey signed a $3bn agreement with Saudi Arabia to supply the Akinci unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV). It was made by Baykar, which also produces the Bayraktar tb2—a drone that has been used in combat by Libya, Azerbaijan, Ethiopia and Ukraine. The tb2 was developed to hunt Kurdish militants after America refused to sell Turkey its Predator drone. More than 20 countries lined up to buy it because it was cheaper and more readily available than the American alternative, and more reliable than the Chinese Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles UCAVs that had previously dominated the non-Western market.

The Akinci (pictured right) is more powerful. It can carry lots of big weapons, including air-to-air missiles and the som-a, a stealthy cruise missile with a range of 250km. It will find buyers among several other Gulf countries, such as Qatar, Oman and the UAE, who are keen to hedge against souring relations with America by reducing their reliance on its weaponry. These countries have ambitions to build their own defence industries; they see Turkey as a willing partner and an example to follow.

Turkey’s ambitions are shown by what else is in the pipeline. Its new Navy Flagship, the Anadolu, is a 25,000-ton amphibious assault ship and light aircraft-carrier that will carry Bayraktar ucavs. At least one Gulf country is said to be in talks to buy a similar ship. Turkey’s Fifth-Generation Fighter Jet, the Kaan, in which Pakistan and Azerbaijan are partners, should fly before the end of the year. Developed with help from Britain’s BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce, the Kaan could be seen as a response to Turkey’s ejection from the F-35 partner programme (as punishment for buying the S-400). Turkey will market the plane to anyone America will not sell F-35s to—or who balks at the conditions. Once again, Gulf countries may be first in line.

South Korea and Turkey have benefited from the woes of their main competitors. Russia’s arms exports between 2018 and 2022 were 31% lower than in the preceding four-year period, according to sipri. It is facing further large declines because of the strain its war of aggression is putting on its defence industries, its geopolitical isolation and the efforts of two major customers, India and China, to reduce their reliance on Russian weaponry.

India, previously Russia’s biggest customer, cut its purchases of Russian arms by 37% in the 2018-22 period. It is probably wishing it had gone further: Russia’s largely state-controlled arms industry is having to put its own army’s needs ahead of commitments to customers. Many of India’s 272 Su-30mkis, the backbone of its air force, are kaput because Russia cannot supply parts. Some of Russia’s weapons have performed poorly in Ukraine, compared with nato kit. And sanctions on Russia are limiting trade in things such as microchips, ball-bearings, machine tools and optical systems, which will hinder Russia’s ability to sell combat aircraft, attack helicopters and other lethal contraptions. The longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the more Russia will struggle to claw back its position in the global arms market.

Damp Squibs

As for China, over half its arms exports in the 2018-22 period went to just one country, Pakistan, which it sees as an ally against India. Nearly 80% of Pakistan’s major weapons needs are met by China, according to sipri. These include combat aircraft, missiles, frigates and submarines. Beijing has no interest in its customers’ human-rights records, how they plan to use what China sends or whether they are under Western sanctions.

But China’s arms industry also has its problems. One challenge, says Mr Waldwyn, is that although China set out to dominate the military drone market a decade ago, its customers got fed up with poor quality and even worse support, opening a door for Turkey. A second is that, with the exception of a putative submarine deal with Thailand and a package of weapons for Myanmar, other countries in South-East Asia are tired of Chinese bullying and “won’t touch them”, says Mr Wezeman.

At least China does not have to worry about competition from India. Despite much effort, India’s growth as an arms-exporter has been glacial. The government of Narendra Modi has listed a huge range of weapons parts that must be made in India; it hopes homemade light tanks and artillery will enter service by the end of the decade. But India has relied for too long on the transfer of technology from Russia under production-licensing agreements for aircraft, tanks and warships that have failed to deliver. Investment is wastefully channelled through the state-owned bodies. Red tape suffocates initiative.

Projects such as the Tejas light combat aircraft have taken decades to reach production, and remain fraught with problems. The Dhruv light helicopter, launched in 2002, has crashed dozens of times. After decades in development, the Arjun Mk-2 tank turned out to be too heavy for deployment across the border with Pakistan. Locally made kit is often rejected by India’s own armed forces; “If they don’t want it, exporting it becomes impossible,” says Mr Wezeman. South Korea and Turkey show how countries can build lucrative arms businesses that underpin domestic security. India, for all its bombast, is a lesson in how not to do it. ■

[tomorrowusa]

Ukrainian drones blew up a large Russian arms depot west of Moscow. The blast was large enough to have been detected by earthquake sensors.

A Ukrainian drone attack on a large Russian weapons depot caused a blast that was picked up by earthquake monitoring stations, in one of the biggest strikes on Moscow’s military arsenal since the war began. Pro-Russian military bloggers said Ukraine struck an arsenal for the storage of missiles, ammunition and explosives in Toropets, a historic town more than 300 miles north of Ukraine and about 230 miles west of Moscow. Videos and images on social media showed a huge ball of flame rising high into the night sky and detonations thundering across a lake, in a region not far from the border with Belarus. The strike was part of a broader Ukrainian drone campaign targeting Russian oil refineries, power plants, airfields and military factories, and highlights Kyiv’s enhanced long-range drone capabilities. Earthquake monitoring stations registered what sensors thought was a minor earthquake in the area.

The blast was so big that in the first couple of seconds it appears to be during daytime.

The Kyiv Independent has additional details.

Arms depot in Russia's Tver Oblast built to withstand nuclear explosion heavily damaged by Ukrainian drones

Back in 2018, the Russian Defense Ministry bragged that this facility would be prepared to withstand even a nuclear explosion. Six years later, the claim was proven to be false. According to the SBU, the arsenal stored ballistic missiles, including Iskanders, anti-aircraft missiles, artillery ammunition, and KAB guided bombs. The attack "literally wiped off the face of the earth a large warehouse of the main missile and artillery department of the Russian Defense Ministry," the SBU source said. The construction of the arsenal, controlled by the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate, began in 2015 in the town of Toropets, located 480 kilometers north of Ukraine. The construction was part of a 2012 government program set to improve Russia's storage of missiles, ammunition, and explosives. According to Russia's Defense Ministry, the program, worth 90 billion rubles (nearly $980 million), called for 13 modern arms depots to be built. [ ... ] Yet the source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent that a "very powerful detonation" occurred, and the affected area was 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) wide. NASA satellites also recorded a surge in thermal activity in Tver Oblast, where the 107th arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate is located. "The arsenal seems to have been built correctly, with bunkered storage facilities that can hold up to 240 tons of ammunition each," Serhiy Zgurets, military expert and CEO of the Ukrainian media Defense Express, told the Kyiv Independent.

As Joe Biden might put it, this is "a big fucking deal". Months worth of ammunition, missiles, and other ordnance which was waiting to be used against Ukrainians has been eliminated.

In total, about 30,000 tons of ammunition were stored in the arsenal in Toropets, which could have been enough to conduct attacks for months, according to the expert. Russia most likely stored 122 mm Grad ammunition, 82 mm mines, and missiles for Buk medium-range surface-to-air missile systems, among other munitions, according to Zgurets.

Ukraine apparently destroyed 30,000 tons (i.e. 30 kilotons) of ammo. For comparison, the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima was the equivalent of 15 kilotons.

Ukrainians are intelligent and resourceful. They are now building drones which cannot be jammed by electronic warfare. They may have used those to get to Toropets.

And it seems a bit weird that Russia would build a gigantic arsenal just 4.51 km (less than 3 miles) from downtown Toropets – a scenic town and local administrative center.

So Ukraine has now penetrated and destroyed an impenetrable arms depot. Previously, Ukraine has stopped unstoppable Kinzhal Russian missiles. This war is unwinnable for Russia but the country continues to humiliate itself with its unmistakable military ineptitude.

[panimoonchild]

In the democratic world is "Never again", in the Russian world - "We can and will proudly repeat"

Attacked electricity generation and transmission facilities in Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Vinnytsia regions.

I urgently recommend you to watch Zelenskyy's speech. I was literally crying from the start. I even downloaded video but Tumblr once again crushed for me. I'm sorry.

Back to modern time.

At night, Russians attacked three DTEK thermal power plants. The equipment was seriously damaged.

This is the fifth massive shelling of the company's energy facilities in the last month and a half.

In the Kyiv region, 13 private buildings were destroyed and damaged as a result of the night shelling. Debris fell in four districts of the region.

In the Lviv region, the occupiers attacked a gas storage facility in Stryi district and a thermal power plant in Chervonohrad district.

An 8-year-old child was injured in Kirovohrad region. A critical infrastructure facility was damaged in the region, and 13 houses were destroyed.

At night, on May 8, at 02:42, in Kharkiv, air defense forces shot down two Shaheds in the northern part of the city. No damage and no casualties - HOVA.

About 15 settlements of the Kharkiv region were hit by enemy artillery and mortar attacks: Sinkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Berestove, and others. Dvorichanske and Sinkivka came under aerial bombardment.

17:00 с. Kucherivka, Kupyansk district. A private house was burning as a result of the shelling.

May 7, 09:30 a.m. Cherkaski Tyshky, Kharkiv district. The roofs of two private houses were damaged as a result of hostile shelling.

Ukrainian troops repelled 16 attacks in the Kupyansk sector over the last day, including in the areas of Sinkivka, Pishchane, and Berestove in Kharkiv region.

The Ukrainian Air Force destroyed 39/55 missiles and 20/21 UAVs:

▪️ 0/1 X-47M2 Kinzhal aerial ballistic missiles;

▪️ 0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles;

▪️ 4/4 Kalibr cruise missiles;

▪️ 33/45 X-101/X-555 cruise missiles;

▪️ 0/1 Iskander-K cruise missiles;

▪️ 2/2 X-59/X-69 guided missiles;

▪️ 20/21 Shahed-131/136 strike UAVs.

Thanks to the Air Force, I woke up today. And I even had the luxury of not having to go to the corridor, even though my region was under attack.

Back to World War II.

Photos from AFUStratCom.

#Mordor On this day in 1941, representatives of the Allied Wehrmacht were invited to a parade in Moscow. World War II had been going on for 1 year and 8 months.

Modern time:

On this day in 2014, Ukrainian miners spoke about the torture of the Russian occupiers in Donetsk and showed a tattoo that was almost cut off by a light bulb.

Russia never changed. Russia never learned.

Total victory and liberation of Ukraine is the only possible scenario for peace.

[redjaybathood]

I didn't survive 35 missiles of various types and 23 attack UAVs:

- 16 "Iskander-M"/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Bryansk, Voronezh and Kursk regions - Russian Federation

- 14 X-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS aircraft from the airspace of Volgograd region - Russian Federation

- 4 S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles from Belgorod region - Russian Federation

- 1 missile of an unspecified type from Belgorod region - Russian Federation;

- 23 Shahed-131/136 attack UAVs from Primorsko-Akhtarsk rf

in just this one morning so a person I followed for years in my fandom casually declared that genocide of Ukrainians is a lesser evil compared to genocide of Palestinians. Specifically in those terms, not touching upon internal USAian or other International issues.

[unhonestlymirror]

Scary and epic video.

According to Zaluzhnyj, today, russia used:

• four S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles from the Belgorod region - towards the Kharkiv region;

• 15 X-101/X-555/X-55 cruise missiles from six Tu-95MS strategic bombers (launch area - Engels, russian federation);

• eight X-22 missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers from Bryansk and Oryol regions - in the direction of Kharkiv and Sumy regions;

• 12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (launch area - Belgorod and Voronezh regions);

• two X-59 guided aircraft missiles from two Su-34 aircraft (launch area - Belgorod region - russian federation).

Overall, 42 rockets. 21 rockets were managed to be shot down.

[kamogryadeshi]

❗️This morning the Russians struck Konstantynivka in the Donetsk region with an Iskander ballistic missile.

The attack injured four civilians: a 9-year-old girl, her 44-year-old mother, a 64-year-old woman and her 41-year-old son.

Also damaged were 10 multi-storey residential and 19 private houses, a car, a boiler room, a gas pipeline and an electric power line.

[pettania]

Odessa 💔 Today, 4-year-old Zlatochka, who was killed by Russian terrorists, was buried here.. The girl was wounded during the Russian shelling of the coast of the city on April 29 - then Russia hit the Iskander-M with a cluster warhead.. Zlata underwent heart surgery, was in a coma all the time. According to the father, the EEG of the brain did not show activity. The day before her death, all organs failed. On May 23, the child's heart stopped…. She was the eighth victim of that attack. russia's ballistic missile killed a child.. the country of terror and darkness.. Condolences to all parents from whom the russian terror took the dearest….

[awesome-casuallyfamouscollector]

Today was the largest Russian combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine. Russia launched 127 missiles and 109 drones. Of which 102 missiles and 99 drones were shot down: - 1 Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile; - 1 "Iskander-M"/KN-23 ballistic missile; - 1 Kh-22 cruise missile; - 99 cruise missiles Kh-101, "Kalibr", guided air missiles Kh-59/69; - 99 attack UAVs "Shahed-131/136". In addition, several UAVs were lost in location on the territory of Ukraine, two more crossed the state border with the Republic of Belarus. Source: Special Kherson Cat

P.S.Russian war criminals spent over a billion dollars to carry out today's missile attack and achieved precisely - nothing...! Ukraine was generally quite successful in fending off a massive Russian missile attack on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure...

[darkmaga-retard]

While the United States is unable to go past the testing phase in the development of hypersonic missiles, Russia is zooming ahead with upgrades to already unrivaled weapon systems it has been fielding for decades at this point. In fact, even much smaller countries such as North Korea and Iran have surpassed the US in this regard, despite being under siege for decades. In line with this, many countries are changing their military doctrine, opting for long-range precision strike capabilities in order to deter NATO aggression. Expectedly, Moscow went furthest in this and is still the only military superpower on the planet with hypersonic weapons on a tactical, operational, strategic and doctrinal level. Namely, the Russian military has approximately two dozen various hypersonic weapons in service or about to be inducted. This stands in stark contrast to the entire political West, which fields exactly zero hypersonic weapons, despite running dozens of programs simultaneously.

The Kremlin has been using this massive advantage to great effect in the special military operation (SMO), wiping out thousands of illegally deployed NATO personnel in Ukraine. The 9-A-7660 “Kinzhal” missile systems armed with the 9-S-7760 air-launched hypersonic missiles have been able to destroy the most heavily fortified enemy targets, while the multirole 3M22 “Zircon” has proven its effectiveness against high-value targets all across Ukraine, whether it was the SBU/GUR personnel that took part in organizing terrorist attacks on hundreds of Russian civilians, or the CIA and other NATO intelligence services handlers who were aiding them. However, the “Iskander” missile system has been the most cost-effective and most common hypersonic weapon used by the Russian military. Just last month, it launched dozens of long-range strikes that have obliterated hundreds of the most valuable personnel and assets, including the overhyped NATO weapons.

As the world’s first land-based hypersonic missile platform, the 9K720 “Iskander” system has two variants. The first is the “Iskander-M”, armed with the advanced 9M723 quasi-ballistic/hypersonic missiles capable of massive speeds of up to Mach 8.7 and reaching a range of up to 500 km (due to INF Treaty limitations). Most Western sources classify it as an SRBM (short-range ballistic missile), albeit it’s far more advanced than a regular ballistic missile. The second is the “Iskander-K”, modified to launch cruise missiles such as the 9M728 (essentially the R-500, with a range of up to 500 km) and the Novator’s 9M729 (which Western sources claim has a staggering range of up to 5,500 km). It has a high degree of modularity, making it easy and affordable to upgrade the system, which gives it a plethora of strike options for various targets, be it large concentrations of infantry, heavy armor, parked aircraft, etc. Its accuracy also allows pinpoint precision strikes on high-priority targets.

[mariacallous]

On September 10, Washington confirmed that Iran had transferred short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. With more weapons suited for hitting closer targets, Moscow can now conserve its longer-range missiles for deeper strikes into Ukrainian territory. And Western officials don’t expect this shipment to be the last. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East could push Tehran to prioritize keeping its arsenal at home. Journalists from the independent outlet iStories investigated the types of weapons Iran is sending to Russia and their potential impact on the war in Ukraine. Meduza shares an abridged English-language version of their reporting.

In early September, The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. and European officials, reported that Iran had delivered around 200 ballistic missiles to Russia. One official warned that this shipment likely wouldn’t be the last.

According to the Financial Times, the missiles — Fath-360s with a range of up to 120 kilometers (75 miles) — were transported via the Caspian Sea. Sky News published a photo of a Russian ship said to have delivered the missiles to Port Olya, near the city of Astrakhan, on September 4. The ship traveled from Iran with its transponder switched off, concealing its movements.

On September 10, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that Russia had received Iranian Fath-360 missiles, estimating that Moscow could begin using them in Ukraine within weeks. Dozens of Russian soldiers have already undergone training in Iran.

Along with the missiles, Russia will also require Iranian launchers, explains Fabian Hinz, a missile and drone expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The Russian military currently lacks launchers compatible with the Fath-360. In Iran, these systems are often mounted on commercial trucks, and they could be transported to Russia via large cargo planes or by sea.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry has denied sending missiles to Russia. However, Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani acknowledged the shipments, stating: “We have to barter for our needs, including importing soybeans and wheat. Part of the barter involves sending missiles, and another part involves sending military drones to Russia.”

No adequate defense

The Fath-360 has a range similar to Russia’s S-300 surface-to-air missiles, which the Russian military has used to target Ukrainian front-line and border cities such as Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Pokrovsk, and Kostiantynivka, as well as military installations. When striking ground positions, both the S-300 and Fath-360 follow a ballistic trajectory.

Russia also deploys Iskander-M ballistic missiles against targets within the S-300’s range. The Iskander-M is more accurate and has a maximum range of about 500 kilometers (311 miles). With the addition of Fath-360s, Moscow can now conserve its Iskander-M missiles for long-range strikes. Iranian short-range ballistic missiles are known for their precision, and the Fath-360 is no exception, according to IISS’s Fabian Hinz. The missile is equipped with satellite navigation and is likely outfitted with electronic warfare countermeasures. Ukrainian military expert and Reserve Major Oleksiy Hetman believes the Fath-360 is more accurate than Russia’s S-300.

Saving Iskander-M missiles for deeper strikes into Ukraine is likely a critical issue for the Russian military. Ukrainian military estimates suggest that as of May, Russia had around 200 Iskander-M missiles and was producing about 40 per month. Russia’s acquisition of Hwasong-11 missiles from North Korea, which started last year, also hints at a potential shortage. The Hwasong-11, a close equivalent to the Iskander-M, has been in use by Russian forces since December, although the Ukrainian authorities report that about half of these missiles prematurely detonate mid-air. This summer, Russia used at least one North Korean missile manufactured in 2024, indicating that supplies from Pyongyang are ongoing, according to the U.K.-based investigative group Conflict Armament Research. 

The effectiveness of the Fath-360 will largely depend on how well operators can coordinate with intelligence units, as real-time target data will be crucial for swift strikes. But while Iranian missiles don’t introduce entirely new capabilities to Russia’s arsenal, their sheer numbers could still play a significant role in the conflict, Hinz notes.

There’s little hope that Ukraine’s air defenses will be able to intercept a significant number of Fath-360s. The country lacks sufficient systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, and deploying them within the Fath-360’s range is extremely risky. Since the full-scale invasion began, Ukrainian forces have managed to shoot down only 19 of the 3,000 S-300 and S-400 missiles fired by Russia, according to an August report from Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Iran’s arsenal

The Iranian military has both cruise and ballistic missiles with ranges spanning several hundred to several thousand kilometers, according to reports from Western analysts published in 2024. However, reliable and up-to-date information about the exact number of missiles or Iran’s production capabilities remains elusive.

In 2022, U.S. General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. stated that Iran had approximately 3,000 ballistic missiles and had been heavily investing in their development for the previous five to seven years. Production has certainly increased since then, but it’s unclear exactly how many missiles Iran can produce monthly or annually, says Fabian Hinz from IISS.

Iran’s ballistic missiles can be broadly divided into two categories. The first includes expensive, difficult-to-produce munitions with ranges exceeding 1,000 kilometers (621 miles), capable of reaching Israel. In April 2024, Iran launched around 120 such missiles in a large-scale strike on Israel. In August, Israeli and Western officials expected another round of strikes in retaliation for the killings of a Hezbollah commander and the head of Hamas’s political bureau, though this hasn’t happened yet.

If Iran continues or expands its missile shipments to Russia, Moscow is likely to receive mostly short-range munitions. In addition to the Fath-360, Iran has missiles with ranges of 300, 500, 700, and around 1,000 kilometers. Tehran has used some of these missiles to target Islamic State positions in Syria and U.S. military bases in Qatar and the UAE. While some missed their targets, Hinz notes that overall, their accuracy is high.

Still, Iran may hesitate to part with even small quantities of these missiles. With the rising threat of a major conflict in the Middle East, Iran needs to maintain a stockpile of ballistic missiles for potential strikes on U.S. military bases. To hit targets in Kuwait and Qatar, Tehran would require missiles with ranges of at least 300 kilometers, and for the UAE, a minimum of 500 kilometers.

Reports of Iranian missile shipments to Russia first surfaced in Western media in February. At the time, there were speculations that Iran had sent Moscow Fateh-100 ballistic missiles (with a range of up to 300 kilometers) and Zolfaghar missiles (up to 700 kilometers). However, no confirmed evidence of their use in Ukraine has emerged so far. Hinz suggests that Iran’s decision to supply shorter-range munitions to Russia is tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East and its own growing military needs.

* * *

In response to Iran’s missile deliveries to Russia, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the transfer a “sharp escalation,” while the U.K., Germany, and France issued a joint statement describing it as a “direct threat to European security.”

On September 11, just a day after the U.S. officially confirmed the missile deliveries, Blinken and U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. Ukraine’s top priority is lifting restrictions on the use of long-range Western weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. According to Bloomberg, Zelensky presented a plan outlining these strikes over the coming months.

After Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, the U.S. authorized Ukraine to use Western weapons against military targets in Russian border areas. Now, according to Politico, the White House is close to expanding the permitted strike zone.

[o-nexis]

їбала я ваші русняві рти.

A total of 236 enemy air attack vehicles were detected and tracked by the Air Force's radio engineering troops: 127 missiles and 109 attack UAVs:

- 3 X-47M2 "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missiles from the airspace of the ryazan and lipetsk regions - russian pederation

- 6 "Iskander-M"/KN-23 ballistic missiles from kursk and voronezh regions - russian pederation and from Crimea

- 77 X-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS aircraft from the airspace of volgograd region and the Caspian Sea region

- 28 Kalibr cruise missiles from surface/underwater carriers in the eastern part of the Black Sea

- 3 X-22 cruise missiles from the airspace of voronezh region - russian pederation

- 10 X-59/X-69 guided missiles from Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft from the airspace of belgorod region and from the area of Mariupol

- 109 Shahed-131/136 strike UAVs - launch areas of primorsko-akhtarsk, kursk, yeysk - russian pederation, Chauda - Crimea

In total, 201 air targets were shot down as a result of the air combat - 102 missiles and 99 attack UAVs:

- 1 X-47M2 "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile

- 1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile

- 1 X-22 cruise missile

- 99 X-101, "Kalibr" cruise missiles, and X-59/69 guided missiles

- 99 Shahed-131/136 attack UAVs

[mokhosz-nafo]

Russian Army Launches Missile Attack on Kyiv with Cruise and Ballistic Missiles

Around 3 a.m., cruise missiles (likely X-101) were fired from Tu-95MS strategic bombers in the Saratov region of Russia. Simultaneously, the Russians launched North Korean KN-24/Iskander-M ballistic missiles and another strike drone over Kyiv and its suburbs. According to Kyiv City Military Administration, anti-aircraft defense systems destroyed more than a dozen cruise missiles, around a dozen ballistic missiles, and one attack drone.

[argumate]

Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched over 84 cruise missiles and 24 drone attacks, 13 of which were carried out with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones. Ukrainian air defense shot down 43 cruise missiles, 10 Shahed-136 drones, and 3 unspecified drones. Russian forces launched missiles from 10 strategic bombers operating in the Caspian Sea and from Nizhny Novgorod, Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems, and 6 missile carriers in the Black Sea. Russian forces launched the Shahed-136 drones from Crimea and Belarus. Ukrainian media reported that Russian missile strikes hit 70 targets, including 29 critical infrastructure facilities, 4 high-rise buildings, 35 residential buildings, and a school.

Putin emphasized that he would conduct proportional escalation in any future retaliatory actions. He stated that if Ukraine continues to carry out “terrorist attacks against [Russian] territory, then Russian responses will be harsh, and their scale will correspond to the level of the threat to the Russian Federation.” This declaration of proportionality suggests that Putin intends to continue climbing the escalation ladder rung by rung and cautiously rather than jumping to more dramatic measures such as the use of nuclear weapons. Putin may also mean to message the Russian pro-war camp that they should manage their expectations of an ongoing daily bombardment of Ukraine similar to the one conducted today. Russian milbloggers, for their part, have overwhelmingly welcomed the strikes and amplified Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev’s statement that more attacks against Ukraine will follow soon. Ukrainian and Western intelligence have previously reported that Russia has spent a significant portion of its high-precision missiles, and Putin likely knows better than Medvedev or the milbloggers that he cannot sustain attacks of this intensity for very long.

The October 10 Russian attacks wasted some of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons against civilian targets, as opposed to militarily significant targets. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces successfully completed the mission of striking Ukrainian military command centers, signal infrastructure, and energy systems in Ukraine. Social media shows that Russians instead hit a children’s playground, a park, a German consulate, and a business center among other non-military targets. Ukrainian air defenses also shot down half of the Russian drones and cruise missiles. Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid will not likely break Ukraine’s will to fight, but Russia’s use of its limited supply of precision weapons in this role may deprive Putin of options to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson and Luhansk Oblasts.

[panimoonchild]

The side that can’t shoot back loses

🔱On the night of 06/14/24, according to preliminary estimates, the defense forces destroyed the launched weapons:

❗️ 0/3 9m723 Iskander-M ballistic missiles;

❗️ 7/10 X-101/555 air-launched cruise missiles;

❗️ 0/1 air-launched ballistic missiles X-47m2 of the Kinzhal complex;

⚠️ 17/17 Shahid-type strike UAVs.

@ war_monitor

In total, 24 targets out of 31 were downed. The Russians fired three Iskander missiles at Zaporizhzhia, an Air Force spokesman Yevlash said.

Don't be indifferent. Make Russia pay. Please hear our cry out to the world, keep spreading our voices, and donate to our army and combat medics (savelife.in.ua, prytulafoundation.org, Serhii Sternenko, hospitallers.life, ptahy.vidchui.org, and u24.gov.ua).

Also, you can support this fundraising for equipment for night work for the scouts of the NGU of the Rubizh Brigade.

[cyberbenb]

Bloody Friday in Odesa. The city attacked by the russian Iskander ballistic missiles

Explosions rang out in Odesa after 11:00 a.m. today. Against this background, an air alert was announced in Odesa and the region. Later, the network reported about repeated explosions in Odesa. The Ai Source : ukrainefrontlines.com/news/ukra…

[pretordh]

On the night of October 16, 2023, the Russian invaders attacked Ukraine from several directions, using ballistic weapons, guided air missiles and attack drones.

In total, the use of one "Iskander M" ballistic missile, five Kh-59 guided air missiles and 12 "Shahed-136/131" type UAVs was recorded.

The northern and eastern regions of Ukraine were attacked with aerial missiles, the enemy directed the Shaheds in different directions, in particular to the west.

💥 As a result of combat work by the forces and means of the Air Force, two guided air missiles Kh-59 and 11 "Shahed-136/131" were destroyed.