#Red Mirage

[im-lost-in-ikea]

in 2020 the blue shift took four days, in 2020 the blue shift took four days, in 2020 the bl

[creativitycache]

Hey for those of you that aren’t polisci nerds like me, I thought I’d share a term for something that happens every election.

“Red Mirage”

Rural areas contain less people. Less people means fewer votes. Fewer votes means faster counting. Faster counting means earlier results. The map turns red as rural republican areas get counted first and without any other data from larger counties.

“Blue shift”

The cities and highly populated counties start reporting their data. It took them longer to count all those votes. Once they report in, their areas of the map either flip from red or get colored in blue. Over time the map turns blue.

If you are looking at early reporting you are looking at the red mirage. It happens every four years. It is not unusual. It is expected.

The question isn’t “what color will the map turn first?”

The question is “what color will the map end as?”

[strawberryraviegutz]

Just in case anyone is panicking

[deanspajamas]

[iwonaprizeforbeingthebesthater]

EVERYONE PLEASE ITS THE RED MIRAGE THERES STILL HOPE

[transmasculinizing]

also important to remember all the news articles and influencers making content about how trump won are doing it for clicks. they know the blue shift lasts days and biden was losing the same time last election. they know youll click because ur terrified and they wanna profit off ur anxiety

remember the mail in ballots that often lean dem are still b counted in key swing states and wont be finished counting for the next few days. why do you think the maga crowd was chanting "stop the vote" last election? bc the mail in ballots favored biden and the same things happening here

[buggbuzz]

we hold hands sitting in a circle and chant "red mirage red mirage red mirage" in unison

[kweenluxa]

red mirage and blue shift

a lot of people are stressed seeing trump leading in the polls right now and in critical swing states

I would like to remind y'all about the red mirage and blue shift

the red mirage is when the polls lean heavily republican at the start of the night, this occurs because rural counties with less votes to count are able to finalize their ballots earlier than larger blue counties

this causes many states to appear right leaning at the start of the night until larger blue counties can finalize their results

the blue shift occurs when these larger urban areas finish counting their ballots, for example in 2020, trump was leading Georgia until the larger blue counties sent in their numbers and Biden ended up winning the state

once urban areas are accounted for, these states shift to blue

[spidermartini]

Please reblog and signal boost. Please keep the tags and the written content.

This is valuable information to have at your disposal to explain standard election reality to your MAGA relatives. Please watch and pass this along.

This explains the "RED MIRAGE" and the "BLUE SHIFT"

The RED MIRAGE is the illusion that Republicans are winning in the early counting of votes. This happens ALL of the time. Why? Well, because Republican states and counties tend to be less densely populated, rural and easier/faster to count. This creates a mirage or illusion, in early tallying, that the Republican candidate is winning

However, as the larger, more densely populated cities begin to be counted, there is a BLUE SHIFT. This is because large cities/cultural hubs tend to have more Democrats voting. So, as the tallying progresses, the Blue Shift happens and we begin to see a more accurate reflection of vote distribution.

In the years when a Democrat candidate wins, understanding this becomes more important. At the beginning of counting in those years, it looks like the Republican candidate is winning, but by the final tally, the Democrat has won.

THIS MIRAGE/SHIFT CYCLE HAPPENS EVERY ELECTION REGARDLESS OF WHO ENDS UP WINNING. Trump used the general ignorance of this NORMAL ELECTION OCCURRENCE to manipulate his voters into attacking the capital and believing and perpetuating the big lie.

Please talk about this with people, spread this news....not only to diffuse the inevitable bullshit and misinformation that we will all have to endure, but also to alleviate your OWN anxiety as the votes are being tallied.

This WILL BE what Trump does AGAIN this year. This manipulation of a normal and logical occurrence gave him results last time....on Jan 6th. He will use this to whip his base up into a violent frenzy. Try to educate and inform people to help diffuse this as much as possible.

(If I have posted this at the wrong time for visibility, I will repost it to put it in people's view. If you see me reposting myself I'm not being egocentric. I feel people need to see and understand this. )

[m-a-d-e-l-e-i-n-e]

I literally just learned what "red mirage" meant today but this is lasting a liiiiittle too long for my liking...

[cherrybombfangirl]

I don’t usually talk about politics on this blog bc I’d rather not, but I will say this:

WE DONT KNOW WHO WON YET. We won’t know for at least a week or two until all the votes have been counted.

In case you forgot, this happened last presidential election too- there was a red mirage because all the smaller counties (which are statistically redder) votes are counted first, then the more population dense (and statistically bluer) counties votes were counted last. There’s no way they counted all of the votes in less than 24 hours, please, my friends, don’t panic until every last vote has been counted, ok?

I’m seeing a lot of panicking on social media right now and I feel like that had to be said. Take a step back, take a breath, don’t look at the vote count and social media- DONT PANIC YET.

[skeletonfromthecloset]

just found out about the red mirage!!!! day saved!!!!! now please please please let all that red have really just been the mirage

[davidaugust]

h/t @saribethrose@threads.net

[honeysucklepink]

Warning about the "Red Mirage"

When results start to roll in, there will be a Republican bias. Why? Because smaller rural precincts with less dense populations usually announce their results first, and they tend to skew red. Denser-populated, more urban precincts take longer because, well, more people and more votes to count! So when things look dire early on, be patient! Or just don't watch at all or wait until morning.

Something else to keep in mind however...Orange One will take the red mirage as "proof" he's winning and claim that votes that come in later are fake or fraudulent. He pulled that same shit in 2020. Don't let him do it again.

Finally, if you haven't voted yet (Americans), go now! And if you are on the West Coast, don't let east coast returns discourage you from going to the polls!

[nyancreeperpony]

Chat, is this the Red Mirage or is Trump actually winning?

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Paul Blumenthal at HuffPost:

Four years ago, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans had to wait days to find out the results of the presidential race. For the first time in decades, voters woke up on Wednesday morning still in limbo, unsure which way the country would turn. Now, with just days until the 2024 election, it’s on many minds — will that happen again?

Whether the election outcome is known on election night or a few days later will be determined by the combination of two things: how close the margin is and what the rules are for opening, processing and counting mail and early ballots in the key swing states. The biggest factor in the 2020 delay was the dramatic increase in mail voting, as people tried to protect themselves and their communities from illness. But the increase — 65 million mail ballots were cast — ran up against laws in certain states that restricted, and delayed, when those ballots could be opened, processed and counted. It was obvious from the outset of the pandemic that, absent a landslide win, the winner of the 2020 presidential election would not be known on election night. This was, and is still, totally normal. Election results have never actually been finalized on election night. But the public is accustomed to television (and now online) news sources projecting winners based on incomplete results on election night, leading to the perception that the results are conclusive.

While the official 2020 result remained in limbo, it was possible to predict which way the election would tilt based on partisan voting behaviors. Since Democrats took pandemic precautions more seriously and then-President Donald Trump spent months discouraging and demonizing mail voting, the outstanding ballots were known to tilt heavily in favor of Joe Biden. This dynamic created a “red mirage” on election night, where the in-person votes cast and counted on Election Day quickly skewed heavily in favor of Trump, while the mail ballots, which were counted later, would cause a “blue shift” in the vote total in favor of Biden. In predictable fashion, Trump exploited this situation in 2020 with a torrent of lies. He declared at 2 a.m. after election night that “a fraud on the American public” had taken place by election workers counting the pro-Biden mail ballots after counting the more pro-Trump in-person votes.

“Frankly, we did win this election,” he added. It was the first step in what would become the Big Lie of his attempt to deny, and overturn, the election. He first sought to block the counting of the mail ballots and, when that failed, to prevent states he lost from being counted in the Electoral College vote, which culminated in the attack on the Capitol he fomented on Jan. 6, 2021. Today, those same dynamics remain in effect in many of the key swing states, although there have been some changes.

The biggest change is obvious: Far fewer voters in key states are casting mail ballots than in 2020. This could make reporting results quicker in some of these states. On the other hand, some states — specifically Republicans in those states — continue to disallow mail ballots to be processed and counted prior to Election Day. That makes the count slower and helps produce the conditions for the red mirage and blue shift.

In 2020, we knew who won the Presidential election officially on the Saturday morning of November 7th at just before 10:30AM CST, but we had a feeling that Joe Biden was going to win as early as 11PM CST on Election Night.

In 2024, there is a decent chance that the final call may not come for a few days between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, especially if the election is remotely close.