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broadwaydivastournament · 7 months ago

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Will She Get a Tony Nomination?

Tony nominations are out tomorrow morning, and how am I coping, you ask? Like Madeline Kahn's (Not) Getting Married Today.

This season, eleven of our beloved Divas have opened a show on Broadway. In a remarkably overcrowded season for musicals, the competition is stiffer than ever, especially for our women of a certain age. Statistically, women over fifty (or even forty-five) are less likely to be nominated and/or win a Tony. I have done the math, I’ve crunched the numbers, I have a stupidly detailed spreadsheet, and the mean age for both nominations and wins of Leading Actress in a Musical is under 40. This is largely because the parts for older women just aren’t there in the same quantity as younger women. Since the Tonys began in 1947, only twelve women ov 50 have won for Best Leading Actress in a Musical. And two of them were Chita Rivera, so like… eleven, technically.*

*I have thoughts on why Bette Midler (oldest winner) should not have won but that’s a separate post…

That being said, let’s talk Tony likelihood. But wait, you say, what makes me (@droughtofapathy) remotely qualified to predict anything? Well, nothing. I’m just some stranger on Tumblr who doesn’t do theatre professionally. However. As of today, I have seen 209 Broadway shows, and by the time the Tonys roll around in June, I will have seen every new show eligible.

Also. I read the Tony Award Rules & Regulations handbook (all 26 pages) because why not?

Unlikely:

Andrea Burns (Featured Actress in a Musical: The Notebook)

Andréa Burns has never been nominated for a Tony before, and is unlikely to do so in a fiendishly overcrowded musical season this year. I love her dearly, and she always steals the show, but she would be entering as Featured Actress in a Musical, and it is rough out there, let me tell you. There’s probably over fifty featured roles for women, if not more (though most would not be serious contenders), and only maybe fifteen even considerable. Andréa Burns alas, falls short. She does basically nothing.

Emily Skinner (Featured Actress in a Musical: Suffs)

Oh, I love me a broad, but Emily Skinner is kind of your definition of a working actress who’s generally pretty well-employed, but not your top-line star, or even your go-to featured. I adore her, she’s wildly talented. And she plays bit parts on Broadway. Her roles in Suffs, an ensemble show at its core, are small and offer just a few opportunities to ham it up, but are not going to nab her a nomination. She’ll be one of almost twenty women on stage, with at least half a dozen meatier parts. Still. I am deeply obsessed with her whole performance and I need her carnally.

Jennifer Simard (Featured Actress in a Musical: Once Upon a One More Time)

Darlings, if you asked me this in the fall, I’d say she had a great shot. Was the show good? Nope. But was it fun? Yeah, it was pretty entertaining. Was Jennifer Simard the singular best thing about it? Oh, fuck yeah. She had audiences screaming and crying with laughter as Cinderella’s Stepmother (one of three Stepmothers in three separate shows on Broadway in 2023, and probably the one with the best part). Her “Toxic” is on youtube right now, and you need to see it. The vocals will blow you out of your seat. But it’s crowded, and that show did not last at all. Recency bias is against her. I don’t see it happening, but it’s the one in this category I would be most ecstatic about.

Long-Shot:

Uh, disclaimer, I will be seeing Uncle Vanya one day after nominations come out, so I'm just guessing here and don't quote me on any of this...

Lea Salonga (Featured Actress and Producer: Here Lies Love)

For the record, while I do think Lea Salonga realistically has less of a shot than Jennifer Simard for Featured Actress, I still put her here instead because she’s a beloved Broadway Diva who starred in a creatively innovative and novel show (that I hated it is, again, a separate post). I also don’t think the role itself is nearly large enough to garner a nomination, nor is it the sort of one-scene showstopping wonder that Katie Finneran was in Promises, Promises. So, unlikely, but hey, I’d love a win for Asians. She's also one of the show's many producers, which is more likely to net her a nomination. (Note: Lea Salonga getting a producer nomination for Here Lies Love is a likely for me, so move that down.)

Laurie Metcalf (Lead Actress in a Play: Grey House):

There are, I believe, eight leading actresses eligible for the Tonys, making this probably a four-person category, maybe five if they don’t hate women like they always do. And it is with great devastation that I report the four leading contenders are all white, blonde, screen actresses and I hate it. I hate everything about it. But I digress. Laurie Metcalf deserves to be nominated. Her performance was harrowing, unsettling, and so fucking weird. Grey House was an experimental horror play that didn’t open at the right time (mid-summer instead of Halloween? What the fuck?) and didn’t find its audience. But she had me in tears. If the world is good, and I doubt it, she'll get that fourth nomination. She's a Tony darling, so maybe?

Beth Leavel (Featured Actress in a Musical: Lempicka)

Almost no shot given the small part she has. The Baroness doesn't get much more than one heartwrenching 11 o'clock number at the end of the show, and little other chance to sing or shine. The book also doesn't lend her any opportunities to do much with the awkward and inelegant dialogue. But she's also a beloved industry favorite, so perhaps some miracle will happen? I doubt it. Especially given how the show's been received...

Jayne Houdyshell (Featured Actress in a Play: Uncle Vanya)

Jayne Houdyshell was a solid maybe/likely for me. Career vet with a great performance. I thought she'd get in. She got in for Music Man in 2022 and who the fuck saw that one coming? Yeah, she was good, but like…seriously? I mean, I know it was our first year back and all, but-- Actually, strike all that. I’m looking at the season list here and yeah, no, she deserved it. That tracks. I mean, I’d have put Luba Mason (heartbreaking) or Samantha Williams (a fucking delight) over her, but it makes sense. It was not a time in the world for downer stories. We needed levity and light and hilarity and that was Jayne Houdyshell. But apparently her part has been reduced in this production, so I'm amending my statement. Less likely than I thought. Sad times.

Anika Noni Rose (Featured Actress in a Play: Uncle Vanya)

Anika Noni Rose was our last hope of saving the Leading Actress category from the fucking white ladies with their A-list Hollywood names. But per the final eligibility ruling, she's featured. So there goes everything. Featured is just so damn stacked this year (and every year) that I don't know. But I swear, if I see the nominations for Leading Actress and it’s just a four-person box of white blonde Hollywood women, I will burn the American Theatre Wing to the ground.

Likely:

LaChanze (Producer: Jaja’s African Hair Braiding, Here Lies Love, The Outsiders)

What a career transition this has been for LaChanze. From being nominated for Best Leading Actress in a Play in 2022 to winning TWO Tony Awards for producing in 2023 (Kimberly Akimbo for Best Musical and Topdog/Underdog for Play Revival), she’s on cloud nine. And now she’s back again with three more contenders. I think/hope Jaja gets a Best Play nomination. Out of the ten new plays, four are hard nos, but the other six are strong. Jaja's was fantastic. I loved this play. Strong and smart and well-received. It’s a decent, but not guaranteed, candidate. As for Here Lies Love, well… maybe. It was an ambition and creatively novel endeavor. I personally hated it for political reasons, but maybe it gets a nod? It’s a bloodthirsty year, but this show is shaping up to be one of the best-reviewed of the season. The most likely candidate would have to be The Outsiders, which may also be a moderate contender for Best Musical overall. However, having seen it, I hate it.

If She Doesn’t, I’ll Eat My Sondheim Hatbox:

Something something parallels, doomed relationships, exquisite performances, chemistry...

Kelli O’Hara (Leading Actress in a Musical: Days of Wine and Roses)

I know I’ve been saying it’s a crowded year for musicals, but this one was already locked in from day one. It is unfathomable to me that Kelli O’Hara would not be nominated for an eighth time. She has been nominated for every single role she’s had on Broadway since 2005. She is the darling of Broadway, beloved by all, genuinely kind, unproblematic, hardworking. If you’re going to love a (living) white blonde lady, this is the one. Aside from that, she’s going to be nominated because her performance was exquisite. Heartbreaking, ugly, excruciating, gorgeous. Her voice in this show was as close to an aural sexual experience as you will ever get. Statistically, she probably won’t win. Leading Actress in a musical has not gone to a closed show since Angela Lansbury in 1975. But she’ll be recognized.

Bebe Neuwirth (Featured Actress in a Musical: Cabaret)

Bebe Neuwirth back on Broadway in a beloved classic role of a beloved classic show. It is a match made in paradise. Fraulein Schneider is a wonderful, understated, deeply moving role. It’s been nominated four times for every Broadway iteration there ever has been. Thrice in featured, and was even considered a leading role in the original 1967 Broadway production (hello, Lotte Lenya). If the streak breaks with Bebe, I’ll riot. The circumstances, crowded or not, are favorable. Bebe is a veteran stage actress. Voters and audiences think of her fondly. It’s a Kander and Ebb. She got the biggest rave reviews I've ever seen, even as the show itself got panned. Right now, I would say there are three sure-fire nominees, and she’s one of them. I want her to win. I need her to win. I need her to be one of only three nominations this goddamn production gets. (Her, Skybell, and maybe scenic design, even though I'm mad about that too.)

#tony award nominations #emily skinner #andrea burns #laurie metcalf #jennifer simard #lea salonga #beth leavel #jayne houdyshell #anika noni rose #lachanze #kelli o'hara #bebe neuwirth

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